microsimulation in the uk: the current state of play dr paul williamson dept. of geography...
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- Microsimulation in the UK: the current state of play Dr Paul Williamson Dept. of Geography University of Liverpool
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- ModelInstitutionStaticDynamicABMTax-benefitDemographicOtherPublic MultipleDWPXXXX MultipleTreasuryXXXX PPIXXX IFSXX OPERAStirlingXXX MOSESLeedsXX SCOTSIMLiverpoolXX SAGEMODSouthamptonXXX SimBritainSheffieldXXX EUROMODEssexXXX LawsonEssexX?XXX AndersonEssex S-ParamicsSIASXXX SimDELTADSCXXX SOCSIMLSEXXX CARESIMUEAXXX FEARLUSMLURIX ADaPTSouthamptonXX ?YorkX ?LeedsXXX Current MSM in the UK: an overview
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- % of non-fitting synthetic combinations PARTIALLY CONSTRAINED DISTRIBUTIONS DistributionRural (South West) Middling England (East Mids.) Deprived industrial (North) Deprived urban (Outer London) SEG / Household composition 0000 SEG / Rooms0.5000 Household composition / Dependants 0000 Dependants / Tenure0000 Sex / marital status / tenure 161.5 3.0 Illness / sex01.500 Synthetically estimated spatial microdata
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- Telephony: 2005/6 Simulated household weekly telephone bill (landlines) (FES 2005/6) EEDA, LSOA level Ward level comparison with BT billing data (EEDA, Ward level) Spearman rho = 0.7796, p < 0.001
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- Simulated work time ONS Time-Use Survey (2001) and Census 2001 East of England, LSOA Validation: (Spearman rho = 0.8404, p < 0.001) Strong correlation with Census 2001 work time
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- % More happy than usual 2001 2011
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- Happiness & Life Events EventCorrelation Top 5 negative associations Relationships (mine ending)-0.178 Death (parent)-0.166 Healthparent-0.139 Death (other)-0.137 Employment job loss-0.129 Top Five positive associations Relationships (mine starting)0.160 Employment job gain0.097 Finance (house)0.097 Pregnancy (mine)0.084 Pregnancy (child's)0.053
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- OPERA (1) Costs (% disposable income) of various Local Tax structures
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- (2) Change in costs given changing Dementia prevalence
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- Workflow Research Object Portlet MOSES
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- Simulation Database Aggregate To Migrant Population Aggregate To Vacant Dwellings Migrant generation model Spatial Interaction Model Compute dwelling preference for each migrant Update Location and Dwelling Characteristics 1 4 3 2 5 2 Conventional migration distribution procedure
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- ABM in MOSES Observed MSM ABM
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- Modelling Individual Consumer Behaviour
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- ABM v. MSM?
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- t4t4 t1t1 t2t2 t3t3 The Global Epidemic Simulator
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- Modelling Needs and Resources of Older People to 2030 (MAP2030)
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- SOCSIM
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- Average number of living grand children and grand parents (complete)
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- CARESIM: adding new cohort of people now aged 45-64 + Need to simulate pensions & retirement
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- CONCLUSION In a number of fields UK MSM is world-leading Challenges All models Maintenance/updating/upgrading/validation Increased collaboration Increasing user base Academic models Greater public policy influence
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