middle east and north africa outlook, jan 2014

Global Economic Prospects

January 2014

Middle East & North AfricaDamir Cosic

World BankJanuary 2014

www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar

Egypt, Arab Rep.

Jordan

Tunisia

Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries

Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar

Egypt, Arab Rep.

Jordan

Tunisia

Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries

Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar

Egypt, Arab Rep.

Jordan

Tunisia

Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries

Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar

Egypt, Arab Rep.

Jordan

Tunisia

Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries

Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar

Egypt, Arab Rep.

Jordan

Tunisia

Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries

Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar

Egypt, Arab Rep.

Jordan

Tunisia

Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries

- 44%

Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries

Egypt’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey crossed into positive territory in November 2013 for the

first time in 13 months, signaling an improvement in manufacturing

output going forward.

Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Growth, 3m/3m, saar

Ex-ports

Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed.

Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Growth, 3m/3m, saar

Ex-ports

Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed.

Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Growth, 3m/3m, saar

Ex-ports

Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed.

Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Growth, 3m/3m, saar

Ex-ports

Tourist Ar-rivals

Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed.

Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Growth, 3m/3m, saar

Ex-ports

Tourist Ar-rivals

- 57%

Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed.

Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '136,000.0

6,500.0

7,000.0

7,500.0

8,000.0

8,500.0

9,000.0

9,500.0

10,000.0mb/d

Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oil-exporters

Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '136,000.0

6,500.0

7,000.0

7,500.0

8,000.0

8,500.0

9,000.0

9,500.0

10,000.0mb/d

Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oil-exporters

7.3

Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '136,000.0

6,500.0

7,000.0

7,500.0

8,000.0

8,500.0

9,000.0

9,500.0

10,000.0mb/d

Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oil-exporters

7.3

8.5

Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '136,000.0

6,500.0

7,000.0

7,500.0

8,000.0

8,500.0

9,000.0

9,500.0

10,000.0mb/d

Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oil-exporters

7.3

8.5

10.5

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8ForecastCurrent account balance as a share of GDP

Oil Exporters

Oil Importers

Develop-ing MENA

External imbalances have worsened in the region

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8ForecastCurrent account balance as a share of GDP

Oil Exporters

Oil Importers

Develop-ing MENA

External imbalances have worsened in the region

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8ForecastCurrent account balance as a share of GDP

Oil Exporters

Oil Importers

Develop-ing MENA

External imbalances have worsened in the region

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5 Forecast

Fiscal balances as a share of GDP

Oil Exporters

Oil Im-porters

Develop-ing MENA

Fiscal balances have also weakened across the board

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5 Forecast

Fiscal balances as a share of GDP

Oil Exporters

Oil Im-porters

Develop-ing MENA

Fiscal balances have also weakened across the board

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6Forecast

% change

Growth will improve in the forecast period--but remain below potential--and is subject to a significant downside risks

Oil Exporters

Oil Importers

Developing MENA

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6Forecast

% change

Growth will improve in the forecast period--but remain below potential--and is subject to a significant downside risks

Oil Exporters

Oil Importers

Developing MENA

2.8%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6Forecast

% change

Growth will improve in the forecast period--but remain below potential--and is subject to a significant downside risks

Oil Exporters

Oil Importers

Developing MENA

3.6%

Global Economic Prospects

January 2014

Middle East & North AfricaDamir Cosic

World BankJanuary 2014

www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook