migration and educational attainment by degree type among...

1

Oregon and STEM+

Migration and Educational Attainment by Degree Type among Young Oregonians

Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

2Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

What is STEM and STEM+?

• STEM refers to college degrees where graduates majored in Science, Technology, Engineering or Math

• STEM+ refers to STEM majors plusBusiness and Health• Better job opportunities

• Rough approximation of so-called “good” degrees

3Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Focus of Report

•Young Oregonians and Migrants•About half of migrants are 20- and

30-somethings• 1 in 4 are young college graduates

•Root-setting years matter for longer-run economic development

4Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Most Migrants are Young

• Approx. half of all migrants are 20-and 30-somethings

• Factors that increase migration:• Single, college

educated, not employed, youth, higher income

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Children(0-17)

CollegeAge

(18-24)

Root-Setting(25-34)

PeakWorking(35-44)

PeakEarning(45-54)

LateCareer(55-64)

Retirees(65+)

Who Moves to Oregon?Domestic Net Migration by Age, 2014

Data: American Community Survey | Source: Census, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

5Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Root-Setting Years Matter

• Most people settle down, begin their careers in earnest, get married, have kids, and buy a house

• Vital for longer run economic development, as once settled, people much less likely to move

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Age

Oregon Population by Age, 2015

Source: Oregon Office of Economic AnalysisSource: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Root-SettingYears

6Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

What Influences Migration Rates?• Factors leading to

higher probability of migrating:• Youth

• Single

• Not employed

• Lower income

• Higher educational attainment

• 1 in 4 migrants to Oregon are in their 20s or 30s and hold at least a Bachelor’s

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

All Other STEM+

HS or Less SomeCollege

College Graduate

Educated Influx into OregonMigration Rates to Oregon by Educational Attainment among 20-39 Year Olds, 2014

Data: Net domestic + international migrants divided by resident populationSource: Census, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

7

STEM+ Trends in Oregon

8Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Majority of Migrants are STEM+

• Young U.S. college graduate population is 52% STEM+, 48% All Other

• Since 2009, 55% of Oregon’s net migrants hold STEM+ degrees

• Oregon’s mix is well balanced, what makes the state unique is the strong overall gains

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Young Migrants in OregonNet Migration, 20-39 Year Olds, Bachelor's or Higher

STEM+ Degrees All Other Degrees

STEM+: Science, Technology, Engineering, Math plus Business and Health DegreesSource: IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

9Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Oregon is a National Leader

AL

AK

AZAR CA

CO

CTDE

DC

FLGA HIID

ILIN

IAKS

KYLA

ME

MD

MA

MIMN

MSMOMT NE

NV

NH

NJ

NMNY NC

ND

OHOK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD

TNTX

UT

VTVA

WA

WV

WI

WY

-1%

0%

1%

2%

-2% -1% 0% 1% 2%

All

Oth

er

Deg

ree

s M

igra

tio

n R

ate

STEM+ Migration Rate

College Educated Migration by StateMigration Rates by Degree Type, 20-39 Year Olds, 2014

Oregon ranks 6th best nationally inmigration among all degree types,12th best among STEM+ degreesand 7th best among all other.

Calculation: Net migration by degree type divided by total population 20-39 years oldSource: IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

10Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

26th

12th

6th

28th

16th12th

24th

8th 7th1

51

ResidentPopulation

No. of NetMigrants

Migration Rate

Young Educated Migrants and Oregon20-39 Years Old, 1 = Largest or Fastest

All Degrees STEM+ Other

Data: 2014 ACS, All 50 states plus DC, Education Attainment of Bachelor's or MoreSource: IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Oregon is a Migration Destination

• Oregon is a medium sized state and the local college educated population is too

• However migration trends are strong in both the actual number of net migrants, but particularly so in migration rates

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Education and the Labor Market

12Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Educated Influx into Oregon

• Migrants have higher educational attainment than the overall population

• In- and out-migrant attainment is similar, but actual number of in-migrants is larger than out-migrants

• Net migration increases Oregon’s educational attainment

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2007 2010 2014

Educated Influx into OregonShare with Bachelor's or More, 25 Years and Older

Note: Domestic migrants only | Source: Census, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

In-migrants

Oregon Population

Out-migrants

13Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Higher Participation and Employment Rates

• Labor force participation rates and employment increase with educational attainment

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Less ThanHS

HighSchool

SomeCollege

Degree,All Others

Degree,STEM+

Educational Attainment

Educational Attainment and Employment25-39 Year Old Oregonians, 2014

Labor Force Participation Employment-Population

Source: IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

14Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

But What Type of Jobs?

• A Degree Job is an individual occupation that requires a Bachelor’s or more for an entry-level hire, per U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics definitions

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Less ThanHS

High School SomeCollege

Degree, AllOthers

Degree,STEM+

Educational Attainment

What Do Young Oregonians Do?25-39 Year Olds, 2014

Not Employed Employed in Non-Degree Job Employed in Degree Job

Source: BLS, IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

15Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Average Wages are Higher

• Research has found that every year of additional schooling results in higher wages

• STEM+ graduates earn a premium even above other college graduates

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

Less ThanHS

HighSchool

SomeCollege

Degree,All Others

Degree,STEM+

Educational Attainment

Average Wages by Educational Attainment25-39 Year Old Oregonians, All Workers (PT and FT), 2014

Source: IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

16

Barriers to Increasing Educational Attainment, STEM+ or Otherwise

17Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Student Loan Debt

• Oregonian student loan debt totaled $15.6b in 2014q4• Equivalent to 9.3% of

statewide total personal income

• Default rate 11.5%• Median state: 11.2%

• Worst outcomes for those who don’t graduate yet incur debt burden

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Student Loan Debt as Share of Personal Income

Source: BEA, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Oregon

U.S.

For More: http://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2013/03/14/education-and-student-debt/

18Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Demographics

• Overall demographics flat for college age population• Millennials aging

• Easy demographic gains are over, must rely upon increasing educational attainment within stable population cohort

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

College Age Population in Oregon18-24 Year Olds

Forecast -->

Source: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

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State Comparisons

Young STEM+ Migration, 2014Migration of 20-39 Year Olds with STEM+ Bachelor’s or More,

Share of Resident Population 20-39 Years Old

< 0% 0% - .19% .2% - .49% > .5%

STEM+: Science, Technology, Engineering, Math plus Business and Health

Source: IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

21Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Pacific Northwest Migration

2nd

6th

42nd

45th

50th

-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2%

Washington

Oregon

Idaho

Montana

Alaska

All College Educated Migrants

3rd

7th

36th

29th

50th

-2% -1% 0% 1%

All Other Degrees

Migration of 20-39 Year Olds with Bachelor’s or More, Share of Resident Population 20-39 Years Old

3rd

12th

42nd

47th

50th

-2% -1% 0% 1%

STEM+ Degrees

22Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Pacific Northwest Job Type

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

NotEmployed

Non-DegreeJob

Degree Job NotEmployed

Non-DegreeJob

Degree Job

All Other Degrees STEM+ Degrees

What Young College Educated Northwesterns Do25-39 Year Olds, Bachelors' or More, 2014

Alaska Idaho Montana Oregon Washington

Source: BLS, IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

23

Metro Comparisons

24Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Previous Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Work (Pt 1)

• Among largest metros in country, Portland has a below average share of STEM+ degrees and an above average share of all other degrees, among the working age population

http://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2014/12/11/education-migration-and-the-service-class/

25Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Previous Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Work (Pt 2)

• Looking at in-migration rates across major metros, Portland is a leader for both STEM+ and all other degrees

http://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2014/12/11/education-migration-and-the-service-class/

26Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Summary

• Root-setting age households are vital for regional economic development

• Oregon, along with its Left Coast peers, is a national leader in attracting young, college educated migrants

• STEM+ migrants are the majority into Oregon

• STEM+ graduates have higher labor force participation rates and earn higher average wages

• Combined, all of the above bodes well for Oregon’s economic future

27Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Contact

www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com

@OR_EconAnalysis

joshua.lehner@oregon.gov

(503) 378-4052