military aviation fleet & mro forecast...
Post on 08-Sep-2019
8 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Presented to the 2017 MRO Americas Military ConferenceOrlando, FL
Military AviationFleet & MRO Forecast 2017
Daniel KatzDirector, Defense Analysis and DataAviation Week Intelligence and Data ServicesArlington, VA
2
Scope and Methodology➤ Military Aircraft Database:
Regional analysts update current fleets and 10-yr. projections for deliveries/retirements year-round. Counts are In-Service Fleets (ISFs) Forecast Scope: Western, Piloted Aircraft Forecast Data Cutoff: October 1, 2016
Demand-based, intelligence-driven, discrete approach.Sources: Aviation Week reporting; Reputable publications and periodicals;
Government documents; Extensive communication with military and contractor officials.
➤ MRO Data:20K+ data points, with thousands of recent actuals.Utilization; Field Mx salaries; Field Mx material costs; Costs for airframe, engine
and component depot maintenance.➤ MRO Algorithms, informed by trends and issues, combine fleet and MRO
data to generate projections for annual MRO demand.
3
Categorization: Regions and MRO➤ Regions:
North AmericaLatin America and CaribbeanEuropeMiddle East and North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaEurasiaSouth AsiaAsia-Pacific
➤ MRO Categories:Field MaintenanceDeport Maintenance for: Airframe Engine Components (11 Categories): Mission Avionics Cockpit Systems Landing Gear Wheels and Brakes APU Dynamic Components, Hydraulics Pneumatics Fuel system, Electrical System Other
4
Categorization: MissionsFighter C4ISR Rotary Wing - Attack
Air Superiority Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) Rotary Wing - ScoutAttack ISR Armed ReconnaissanceMulti-role Electronic Warfare Trainer ReconnaissanceMulti-role (ship-based) ISR Trainer Light AttackElectronic Attack Command and Control (C2) ObservationReconnaissance Communications Node Rotary Wing - TransportFlight Demonstration Psychological Operations (PsyOps) GeneralCombat-Capable Trainer Border Surveillance Special OperationsAdversary Trainer Stand-off Jammer Assault
Trainer/Light Combat Aircraft Maritime AmphibiousAdvanced Jet Trainer/Light Fighter Search and Rescue Search and Rescue Basic Flight Trainer/Light Attack Aircraft Reconnaissance Combat Search and RescueIntroductory Flight Trainer Surveillance MedevacHeavy-Body Trainer Surveillance (Anti-Submarine Warfare) VIPAdversary Trainer Patrol TrainerFlight Demonstration Patrol (Anti-Submarine Warfare) Rotary Wing - Maritime
Transport Bomber GeneralGeneral Air-Refueling Tanker Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW)VIP Gunship Airborne Early Warning (AEW-RW)Special Operations Forces (SOF) Firefighter Airborne Mine Countermeasures (AMCM)Search and Rescue (SAR) Research Search and Rescue (SAR)Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR) Flight Inspection Rotary Wing - Electronic WarfareMedevac Target Drone Rotary Wing - FirefighterTarget TugChase Plane
5
Aircraft Characteristics (New)➤ Aircraft Category:
AmphibianBomberBusiness JetCivil PropellerCommercial JetFighterHelicopterTilt RotorLight 1-2 SeaterMilitary C4ISR (purpose-built)Military CargoMilitary Maritime Patrol (purpose-
built)Tiltrotor
➤ Lift Type:Fixed-WingRotary-Wing
➤ Weight ClassFixed-Wing: Heavy. Medium,
Light, Utility, Light UtilityRotary-Wing: Heavy, Medium,
Intermediate, Light
➤ Propulsion: Jet Turbine Piston
➤ Number of Engines: 1-8
6
Global Toplines: 2017-2026
➤ Global ISF: 41,605 in 2017, 42,835 by 2027➤ Deliveries: 7,899➤ Retirements: 7,094➤ Open Requirements: 834 aircraft➤ 10-yr. MRO Market: $784 billion
2017: $76.5B2026: $79.6B
➤ Breakdown by MRO Type:Field Maintenance: 41%Airframe Depot Maintenance: 19%Engine Depot Maintenance: 8%Component Depot Maintenance: 32%
Global ISF by Region: 2017
7
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
North America Europe Asia-Pacific Middle East &North Africa
Latin America South Asia Africa (sub-Saharan)
Eurasia Unknown
Aircraft In-Service Fleets by Region - 2017
Global ISF by Mission: 2017
8
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Aircraft In-Service Fleets by Mission - 2017
RW-Medium
RW-Light
RW-Intermediate
RW-Heavy
Utility
Medium
Light Utility
Light
Heavy
ALL
Global ISF by Manufacturer: 2017
9
15%
12%
9%
8%
8%5%4%3%
2%2%
32%
Top 10 Aircraft Manufacturers ISF - 2017
BoeingLockheed MartinSikorskyBell HelicopterAirbusBeechcraftNorthrop GrummanLeonardoCessnaDassaultOther
Top New Aircraft Manufacturers: 2017-2026
10
1,733
1,041
985 851
498 250
238
237 193
176
1,697
New-Build Aircraft Deliveries - Top 10 Manufacturers: 2017-2026
Lockheed MartinSikorskyUnknownBoeingAirbusKAITAINH IndustriesBell HelicopterPipistrelOther
MRO Demand by Region:2017-2026
11
54%
16%
15%
10%
2%
2% 1%
MRO Demand by Region: 2017-2026
North AmericaEuropeAsia-PacificMiddle East & North AfricaLatin AmericaSouth AsiaAfrica (sub-Saharan)
12
U.S. Toplines: 2017-2026
➤ Total ISF: 13,730 in 2017, 13,753 by 2027➤ Deliveries: 4,484➤ Retirements: 4,457➤ Open Requirements: 214 aircraft➤ 10-yr. MRO Market: $403.7 billion
2017: $39.8B2026: $41.3B
➤ Breakdown by MRO Type:Field Maintenance: 41%Airframe Depot Maintenance: 20%Engine Depot Maintenance: 8%Component Depot Maintenance: 31%
U.S. ISF by Mission: 2017
13
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
U.S. Aircraft ISF by Mission Category: 2017
U.S. ISF by Aircraft Category: 2017
14
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
U.S. ISF by Aircraft Category: 2017
RW-Medium
RW-Light
RW-IntermediateRW-Heavy
Utility
Medium
Light Utility
Light
Heavy
U.S. MRO Demand: 2017-2026
15
54%
18%
14%
11%
1%1% 1%
U.S. MRO Demand by Operator: 2017-2026
United States Air Force
United States Navy
United States Army
United States Marine Corps
United States Coast Guard
United States SOCOM
Other
U.S. MRO Demand: 2017-2026
16
$14.3 B
$16.8 B
$17.7 B
$21.1 B
$21.2 B
$24.0 B
$26.7 B
$30.9 B
$34.6 B
$43.5 B
F-22
AH-64
F-16
F-15
C-17
C-135
F-35
C-130
F/A-18
S-70/H-60
Top 10 Aircraft Families by U.S. MRO Demand: 2017-2026
U.S. Fighters
17
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
F/A-18 F-16 F-15 A-10 F-35 F-22 Harrier A-6
U.S. Fighter Families by ISF: 2017
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
F/A-18 F-35 F-15 F-16 F-22 A-10 Harrier A-6
U.S
. $ B
illio
ns
U.S. Fighter Families by MRO Demand: 2017-2026
U.S. Trainers and Light Fighters
18
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
U.S. Trainers/Light Combat Aircraft Families by ISF: 2017
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
F-5 (T-38) PC-7/9 (T-6)
Hawk Beechjet King Air
U.S
. $ M
illio
ns
Top Five Trainer/Light Combat Aircraft Families by U.S. MRO
Demand: 2017-2026
U.S. Transports
19
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Heavy Medium Light Utility
U.S. Transport Aircraft by Weight Class and Family:
2017DHC-8DC-9AstraF27/Fk50DHC-2L-1011G-II/G-IIIC212CN235/C295G-IVDHC-6C-27/G.222757MetroDo 328Learjet 31/35/36G-V737E-2/C-2Citation Model 560C-5King AirC-17C-130 0
5
10
15
20
25
U.S
$ B
illio
ns
Top 10 Transport Families by U.S. MRO Demand: 2017-
2026
U.S. C4ISR Aircraft
20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
U.S. C4ISR Aircraft by Submission and Family: 2017
747
C-130
Global Express
E-2/C-2
DHC-7
DHC-8
Metro
P-3
707
C-135
PC-12
U-2
King Air0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
U.S
. $ B
illio
ns
Top 10 C4ISR Families by U.S. MRO Demand: 2017-2026
U.S. Maritime Aircraft
21
0
50
100
150
200
250
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
U.S. Maritime Aircraft ISF by Aircraft Category: 2017-2026
Civil Propeller
Military Maritime Patrol(purpose-built)Military Cargo
Commercial Jet
U.S. Maritime Aircraft
22
0
50
100
150
200
250
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
U.S. Maritime Aircraft by Type: 2017-2026
E-9A
P-3 LRT
HC-130H
P-3 AEW
Beech 350 MSA
HC-27J
P-3C
HC-130J
HC-144
P-8A
U.S. Maritime Aircraft
23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
737 C-130 P-3 CN235/C295 C-27/G.222 King Air DHC-8
U.S
$ B
illio
ns
U.S. Maritime Aircraft MRO Demand: 2017-2026
U.S. Rotary-Wing Aircraft
24
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Top 10 U.S. Rotary-Wing Types by ISF: 2017
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
S-70/H-60 AH-64 V-22 CH-47 Huey
U.S
$ B
illio
ns
Top Five U.S. Rotary-Wing families by MRO Demand:
2017-2026
Thank You
25
top related