mitigating environmental emissions from the power sector: analysis of technical and policy options...
Post on 31-Mar-2015
212 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Mitigating Environmental Emissions from the Mitigating Environmental Emissions from the Power Sector: Analysis of Technical and Policy Power Sector: Analysis of Technical and Policy
Options in Selected Asian CountriesOptions in Selected Asian Countries
Ram M. Shrestha S. C. Bhattacharya
Asian Regional Research Programme in Energy, Environment and Climate (ARRPEEC)
Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 2AIT
Overview of presentationOverview of presentation
ARRPEEC power sector projectStatus of power sector Least cost generation options under CO2
emission targetsIdentification of some CDM projectsConclusions
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 3AIT
Share of the power sector in total national Share of the power sector in total national COCO22 emissions (1990 and 1999) emissions (1990 and 1999)
Power sector’s share in CO2 emission in 1999: 12% in Sri Lanka to over 42% in China and India
The sector’s share increasing in China, India, Indonesia and Sri Lanka. Decreasing share in Thailand and Vietnam
Share of the Power Sector CO2 Emission
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Pe
rce
nt
1990
1999
Yearly Emission by fuel typeYearly Emission by fuel type
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 4AIT
The ARRPEEC Power Sector Project The ARRPEEC Power Sector Project Network Network
Collaborating InstitutionsCollaborating Institutions
AIT = Asian Institute of Technology
SPPERC = State Power Economic Research Center, China
IIT-K = Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur
CEA = Central Electricity Authority, India
FIIEE = The Foundation of Indonesian Institute of Energy Economics
SLEMA = Sri Lanka Energy Managers Association
SIIT = Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology, Thailand
IE = Institute of Energy, Vietnam
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 5AIT
The ARRPEEC Power Sector Project: The ARRPEEC Power Sector Project: Specific ObjectivesSpecific Objectives
Determination of least cost supply-side options for GHG and other harmful emissions mitigation subject to CO2 emission targets,
Identification of some CDM projects and assessment of their GHG and
other harmful emissions mitigation potential
Assessment of environmental implications of Independent Power
Producers (IPPs) and Distributed Power Generation (DPG)
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 6AIT
Power systems and countries coveredPower systems and countries covered
a=1999
Capacity (%) Generation (%)
Chinaa Yunnan Grid 7,616 4 3India NREB 25,847 30 34Indonesia Java-Bali Grid 15,512 70 80Sri Lanka Whole country 1,835 100 100Thailand Whole country 22,296 100 100
Vietnama Whole country 5,785 100 100
Country/Regions Power system Installed capacity in 2000 (MW)
Share in total national
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 7AIT
Research approach & planning Research approach & planning horizonhorizon
Least cost power generation planning model
Planning horizon: 2003 to 2017
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 8AIT
Candidate generation technologiesCandidate generation technologies
Note:BIGCC = Biomass Gasification Combined Cycle, PFBC = Pressurized Fluidized Bed Combustion,
CFBC = Circulating Fluidized Bed Combustion, IGCC = Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle
Generation Technology Options
Region/ Countries
Conventional Thermal Cleaner and Efficient Renewable
Yunnan – China Conventional Coal CFBC Hydro, Geothermal, Solar PV, Wind
NREB – India Conventional Coal Combined Cycle, IGCC, PFBC, Nuclear
Hydro, BIGCC, Wind, Solar PV
Indonesia Conventional Coal, Oil and gas turbine
IGCC, PFBC, Combined Cycle
Geothermal, Hydro
Sri Lanka Conventional Coal, Diesel generator, Oil based gas turbine
IGCC, PFBC, Oil based CC
Wind, Dendro-thermal, Hydro
Thailand Conventional Coal and Oil-fired plants
Combined Cycle, IGCC, PFBC
BIGCC, wind, Solar PV
Vietnam Conventional Coal, Oil based gas turbine
PFBC, Combined Cycle Hydro
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 9AIT
Least cost electricity generation Least cost electricity generation technologies technologies
under the BAU case during 2003-2017under the BAU case during 2003-2017
Region/Country Generation Technologies
Yunnan -- China Conventional Coal, Hydro
NREB -- India Conventional Coal, IGCC, PFBC, Combined Cycle, Nuclear, Hydro, Wind
Indonesia Conventional Coal, PFBC, Combined Cycle, Gas turbine, Hydro, Geothermal
Sri Lanka Conventional Coal, Diesel generator, oil-bases gas turbine
Thailand Conventional Coal, IGCC, Combined Cycle, Biomass
Vietnam Conventional Coal, Combined Cycle, Hydro
In the BAU case (i.e.without a CO2 emission reduction target), clean coal and non-hydro renewable options are found cost effective only in NREB-India, Indonesia and Thailand.
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 10AIT
Cleaner thermal generation technologies selectedCleaner thermal generation technologies selected under least cost planning in the BAU and emission under least cost planning in the BAU and emission
reduction cases during 2003-17reduction cases during 2003-17
Annual CO2 Emission Reduction Targets
Technology 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 30%
CFBC Yunnan -China Yunnan-China Yunnan-China - -
IGCC NREB-India, Thailand
NREB-India, Thailand
NREB-India, Thailand
NREB-India, Thailand
Thailand Thailand
PFBC Indonesia, NREB-India
Indonesia, NREB-India
Indonesia, NREB-India
Indonesia, NREB-India
Indonesia -
CC (gas based)
Indonesia, NREB-India, Thailand, Vietnam
Indonesia, NREB-India, Thailand, Vietnam
Indonesia, NREB-India, Thailand, Vietnam
Indonesia, NREB-India, Thailand, Vietnam
Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam
Thailand, Vietnam
CC (Oil-based)
- - Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Sri Lanka
•Clean coal power generation technologies cost effective in Yunnan-China, NREB- India, Indonesia and Thailand and generation share to decrease under reduction cases
•Combined cycle plants selected in all countries (except Sri Lanka) and its generation share to increase under emission reduction cases
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 11AIT
Renewable technologies selectedRenewable technologies selected under least under least cost planning in the BAU and COcost planning in the BAU and CO22 emission emission
reduction cases during 2003-17reduction cases during 2003-17Annual CO2 Emission Reduction Targets
Technology 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 30%
Wind NREB-India Yunnan-China, NREB-India
Yunnan, NREB-India, Thailand,
Sri Lanka
Yunnan-China, NREB-India, Thailand,
Thailand, Sri Lanka
Thailand,
Sri Lanka
Geothermal Indonesia Indonesia,
Yunnan-China
Indonesia,
Yunnan-China
Indonesia,
Yunnan-China
Indonesia -
Solar PV Yunnan-China Yunnan-China Yunnan-China - -
BIGCC * Thailand NREB-India, Thailand
NREB-India, Thailand
NREB-India, Thailand
Thailand Thailand
Hydro Yunnan-China, NREB-India, Indonesia, Vietnam
Yunnan-China, NREB-India, Indonesia, Vietnam
Yunnan-China, NREB-India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Vietnam
Yunnan-China, NREB-India, Indonesia, Vietnam
Indonesia, Vietnam, Sri Lanka
Indonesia, Vietnam
* Dendro thermal cost effective in Sri Lanka at 20% reduction target
• Wind: cost effective at 5% in Yunnan-China, and at 10% and more % in Thailand and Sri Lanka• Geothermal and solar PV: cost effective at 5% and more in Yunnan-China• BIGCC: cost effective at 5% in NREB-India and dendro-thermal at 20% in Sri Lanka
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 12AIT
Trends of generation share in total generation Trends of generation share in total generation under COunder CO22 emission reduction cases emission reduction cases
• Share of gas-fired combined cycle (CC) generation to increase in Indonesia, NREB-India, Thailand and Vietnam
• Share of hydro generation to increase in NREB-India, Sri Lanka, Vietnam and Yunnan-China
•Share of biomass (BIGCC) increase in NREB-India and Thailand
• Share of conventional coal-fired generation to decrease in NREB-India, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam and Yunnan-China (shift to CC and hydro)
• Share of clean coal generation (PFBC) to decrease in Indonesia (shift to CC)
Generation share by technologyGeneration share by technology
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 13AIT
COCO22 Emission-mix by type of generation technology during Emission-mix by type of generation technology during 2003-17 under BAU and 15% CO2003-17 under BAU and 15% CO22 emission reduction emission reduction
casescases
Emission share of coal plants to decrease and that of CC (gas-based) to increase in NREB-India and Indonesia
BAU case NREB-India
Conventional Coal76%
IGCC3%
PFBC6%
CC15%
15% reduction case NREB-India
Conventional Coal57%
IGCC5% PFBC
8%
CC30%
15% reduction case (Indonesia)
Conventional Coal44%
CCT13%
Oil1%
CC22%
GT20%
BAU case (Indonesia)
Conventional Coal40%
GT17%
CC7%
Oil1%
CCT35%
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 14AIT
COCO22 Emission-mix by type of generation technology during Emission-mix by type of generation technology during 2003-2017 under BAU and 15% CO2003-2017 under BAU and 15% CO22 emission reduction emission reduction
casescases
Emission share of coal plants to decrease and that of CC (gas-based) to increase in Thailand and Vietnam
BAU case (Vietnam)
Conventional Coal69%
CC23%
Gas turbine
1%
Oil7%
15% reduction case (Vietnam)
Oil7%
Conventional Coal53% Gas
turbine1%
CC39%
BAU case Thailand
Coal-fired68%
Oil-fired13%
GT1%
CC18%
IGCC0%
15% reduction case Thailand
Coal-fired51%
IGCC0%
CC32%
GT1%
Oil-fired16%
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 15AIT
Effect on total cost of power generation Effect on total cost of power generation under COunder CO22 emission reduction targets emission reduction targets
0
2
4
6
8
10
0 5 10 15 20
CO2 emission reduction target (%)
Cha
nge
is to
tal c
ost
(%)
China-Yunan India-NREB Indonesia
Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam
Total generation cost increase by:
• 0.2% (Indonesia) to 1.8% (Yunnan-China) at 5% reduction target compared to BAU case
• 1.0% (Indonesia) to 7.3% (Yunnan-China) at 15% reduction target
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 16AIT
Marginal Abatement Costs, Marginal Abatement Costs, $/tonne of CO$/tonne of CO22 at 1998 prices at 1998 prices
MAC range from: 1.0 to 2.5 $/tonne of CO2 at 5% reduction target 2.9 to 12.5 $/tonne of CO2 at 10% reduction target 3.1 to 7.3 $/tonne of CO2 at 15% reduction target
Country/Regions
5% 10% 15% 20% 30%
Yunnan-China 1.0 4.3 7.3 7.9 10.6
NREB-India 1.8 3.4 5.4 - -
Indonesia 2.4 3.3 3.9 4.8 5.5
Sri Lanka - 12.5 - 15.5 18.3
Thailand 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.5 4.3
Vietnam 2.4 2.8 3.2 4.1 5.5
CO2 emission reduction targets
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 17AIT
COCO22 Mitigation (“Supply”) Curves Mitigation (“Supply”) Curves during 2003-2017during 2003-2017
Cost of CO2 reduction relatively high in Sri Lanka Cumulative CO2 emission reduction during 2003-2017,
215 million tons at MAC of 2 $/tonne CO2
1,110 million tons at MAC of 3 $/tonne CO2
2,192 million tons at MAC of 5 $/ton CO2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Cumulative CO2 emission reduction (million tonnes)
Mar
gina
l aba
tem
ent c
ost
($/t
onne
CO2
)
Indonesia
India - NREB
Thailand
0
5
10
15
20
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Cumulative CO2 emission reduction (million tonnes)
Mar
gina
l aba
tem
ent c
ost
($/t
onne
CO2
)
China - Yunan
Sri Lanka
Vietnam
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 18AIT
Effects on SOEffects on SO22 Emissions Emissions under COunder CO22 reduction targets reduction targets
SO2 emissions to increase in Indonesia under CO2 reduction targets >5% Disproportionately large % reduction in SO2 emission At 15% CO2 emission reduction target, SO2 emissions to reduce by over 30% in
Yunnan (China), NREB (India) and Thailand and by over 20% in Vietnam.
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
CO2 emission reduction target
SO2 e
mis
sion
redu
ctio
ns
(%)
China-Yunan India-NREB Indonesia
Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 19AIT
Effects on NOEffects on NOxx Emissions Emissions under COunder CO22 reduction targets reduction targets
Relatively higher NOx reduction in Yunnan (China) At 15% reduction target, NO2 reduction by over 15% in NREB-India, Vietnam and
Yunnan-China
-10
0
10
20
30
40
0% 10% 20% 30%
CO2 emission reduction target
NO
x em
issi
on re
duct
ions
(%)
China-Yunan India-NREB Indonesia
Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 20AIT
Identification of CDM Identification of CDM Projects in the Power SectorProjects in the Power Sector
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 21AIT
Project/Options considered for CDMProject/Options considered for CDM
Country/Region Clean/Efficient Technologies Renewable Technologies
Indonesia Geothermal, Solar PVNREB-India BIGCC, Solar PV Sri Lanka IGCC, PFBC, CC-LNG Wind, Dendro-thermalThailand IGCC, PFBC BIGCC, Mini-hydroVietnam PFBC Hydro, GeothermalYunnan-China IGCC, CFBC Wind, Geothermal, Solar PV
MethodologyMethodology
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 22AIT
COCO2 2 reductions and MAC of the candidate cleaner reductions and MAC of the candidate cleaner thermal CDM projects during 2003-17 at 1998 thermal CDM projects during 2003-17 at 1998
pricesprices
Country Candidate CDM Projects
Capacity (MW)
Marginal abatement cost
($/tonne CO2)
CO2 emission
reductions
(106 tonnes)IGCC 300 83 2.0
PFBC 300 115 0.8CC-LNG 500 31 15.3IGCC 500 12 10.0
PFBC 500 100 4.0Vietnam PFBC 350 5 12.2
IGCC 300 16 9.2CFBC 300 16 6.1
Sri Lanka
Thailand
Yunnan-China
Wide variations in MAC for CTTs: IGCC: 12 $/tonne (Thailand) to 83 $/tonne of CO2(Sri Lanka) PFBC: 5 $/tonne (Vietnam) to 115 $/tonne CO2 (Sri Lanka) CC-LNG: 31 $/tonne $/tonne CO2 (Sri Lanka)
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 23AIT
COCO2 2 reductions and MAC of the candidate RETs reductions and MAC of the candidate RETs based CDM Projects during 2003-17 at 1998 pricesbased CDM Projects during 2003-17 at 1998 prices
Country Candidate CDM Projects
Capacity (MW)
Marginal abatement cost
($/tonne CO2)
CO2 emission
reductions
(106 tonnes)Geothermal 110 5.8 15.7Solar PV 100 16.4 20.6BIGCC 1320 94.4 55.5Solar PV 500 364.4 13.5Wind 300 36.3 5.9Dendro 300 48.0 6.2BIGCC 1000 3.0 101.0Mini Hydro 100 2.2 12.0Hydro 250 92.5 10.3Geothermal 200 73.3 1.3Wind 200 11.3 10.4Geothermal 200 4.9 19.6Solar PV 200 11.9 10.2
NREB-India
Sri Lanka
Thailand
Vietnam
Yunnan-China
Indonesia
Wide variations in MAC for RETs: Solar PV: 12 $/tonne (Yunnan-China) to 364 $/tonne of CO2 (NREB-India) Wind: 11 $/tonne (Yunnan-China) to 36 $/tonne of CO2 (Sri Lanka) Geothermal: 5 $/tonne (Yunnan-China) to 73 $/tonne of CO2 (Vietnam) BIGCC: 3 $/tonne (Thailand) to 94 $/tonne of CO2 (NREB-India) Mini-Hydro: 2.2 $/tonne of CO2 (Thailand)
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 24AIT
ConclusionsConclusions
At present costs, clean coal options (i.e., IGCC in NREB-India and Thailand and PFBC in Indonesia and NREB-India) and renewable options (geothermal in Indonesia, wind power in NREB-India and BIGCC in Thailand) are cost effective under the BAU case.
Clean coal technologies would be cost effective at 5% CO2 reduction target in Yunnan (China)
Marginal abatement cost ranges from:
1.0 to 2.5 $/tonne of CO2 at 5% CO2 emission reduction target and from 2.8 to 12.5 $/tonne of CO2 at 10% CO2 emission reduction target
Disproportionately large percentage reduction in SO2 emission would take place at the selected CO2 emission reduction targets except in Indonesia and Sri Lanka.
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 25AIT
ConclusionsConclusions
Some renewable power generation projects (e.g., BIGCC and mini-hydro in Thailand and geothermal in Indonesia and Yunnan-China) are found promising at present as possible CDM projects due to their low marginal abatement cost (2.2 to 5.8 $/tonne CO2).
Other renewable options (i.e., solar PV in Indonesia and Vietnam and wind power in Yunnan-China) would be promising as a CDM project if the price for CER is to reach above 16.5 $/tonne CO2 (=> “larger demand for CERs”).
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 26AIT
Thank You
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 27AIT
COCO22 Emission from the Power Sector Emission from the Power Sector (1980-1997), 10(1980-1997), 1066 tons tons
Sri Lanka
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
CO
2 E
mis
sion
s (m
illi
on to
n)
OilThailand
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
CO
2 E
mis
sion
s (m
illi
on to
n)
Gas
Oil
Coal
Vietnam
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
CO
2 E
mis
sion
s (m
illi
on to
n)
Gas
Oil
Coal
Indonesia
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
CO
2 E
mis
sion
s (m
illi
on to
n)
Gas
Oil
Coal
India
0
100
200
300
400
500
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
CO
2 em
issi
on (m
illi
on to
ns)
Gas
Oil
Coal
China
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
CO
2 em
issi
on (m
illi
on to
ns)
Gas
Oil
Coal
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 28AIT
Power Sector Project:Power Sector Project:Collaborating Research InstitutesCollaborating Research Institutes
Collaborating National Research Institute Principal Investigator
SP Power Economic Research Center, China Prof. Hu Zhaoguang
Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur and Central Electricicty Authority, India
Prof. S. C. Srivastava and Mr. Daram Paul
Indonesian Institute of Energy Economics, Indonesia Mr. Bernardus S. Wahyuputro
Sri Lanka Energy Managers Association, Sri Lanka Mr. W. J. L. Shavi Fernando
Siridhorn International Institute of Technology, Thailand Dr. Bundit Limmeechokchai
Institute of Energy, Vietnam Dr. Pham Khanh ToanAsian Institute of Technology Prof. Ram M Shrestha
Prof. S.C. Bhattacharya
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 29AIT
Least-cost Generation Planning Least-cost Generation Planning ModelModel
Minimize: Total System Costs
(capital + O&M +Fuel + DSM Cost)
Subject to:
• Power demand constraints
• Annual energy constraints
• Hydro-energy constraints
• Reliability constraints
• Fuel or resource availability constraints
• Emission constraints
Capacity Mix
Optimal expansion plan
Generation Mix/Fuel Mix
Emission Factors
Total Cost
CO2, SO2 and NOx Emissions
Electricity Generation Planning Model
Demand-sideData
Electricity Demand
Emissions constraints
Supply-side Data
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 30AIT
Generation share of technologies in total Generation share of technologies in total generation generation
under BAU and COunder BAU and CO22 emission reduction cases emission reduction cases
• Share of gas-fired combined cycle generation to increase in Indonesia, NREB-India, Thailand and Vietnam
• Share of hydro generation to increase in NREB-India, Sri Lanka, Vietnam and Yunnan-China
•Share of biomass (BIGCC) increase in NREB-India and Thailand
• Share of conventional coal-fired generation to decrease in NREB-India, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam and Yunnan-China
• Share of clean coal generation (PFBC) to decrease in Indonesia
Generation share by technology
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 31AIT
Share of gas-fired combined cycle Share of gas-fired combined cycle generation technologies in total generation generation technologies in total generation
under BAU and COunder BAU and CO22 emission reduction cases emission reduction cases
BAU case
15% reduction
caseNREB-India 13 27Indonesia 37 57Thailand 28 39Vietnam 21 30
Share in %
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 1 2 3 4 5
Gen
erat
ion
shar
e of
gas
-fir
ed p
ower
pla
nts
(%)
BAU Case5% reductions targets10% reductions targets15% reductions targets
NR
EB
-Ind
ia
Indo
nesi
a
Tha
iland
Vie
tnam
• Share of hydro generation to increase in NREB-India, Sri Lanka, Vietnam and Yunnan
• Share of BIGCC to increase in NREB-India and Thailand
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 32AIT
Share of coal-fired technologies in total generation Share of coal-fired technologies in total generation under BAU and COunder BAU and CO22 emission reduction cases emission reduction cases
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Gen
erai
on s
hare
of c
oal-
fire
d po
wer
pla
nts
(%) BAU Case
5% reductions targets10% reductions targets15% reductions targets
Yun
nan-
Chi
na
NR
EB
-In
dia
Indo
nesi
a
Tha
iland
Vie
tnam
BAU 15% reduction
caseYunnan-China: 32 27NREB-India: 64 47Indonesia: 54 34Thailand: 52 32Vietnam: 26 16
Share in %
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 33AIT
Generation share of technologies in total Generation share of technologies in total generation generation under BAU and COunder BAU and CO22 emission reduction cases emission reduction cases
NREB-India
Indonesia
BAU case (NREB-India)
Others2%
Conventional coal52%
PFBC6%
IGCC6% Hydro
20%
CC14%
15% reduction case (NREB-India)
CC26%
Hydro24%
IGCC5%
PFBC6%
Conventional coal33%
Others4%
BIGCC2%
BAU case (Indonesia)
GT8%
Hydro5%
Oil1%
CC29%
PFBC27%
Conventional coal28%
Geothermal2%
15% reduction case (Indonesia)Geothermal2%
Conventional coal26%
PFBC8%
CC51%
Oil1%
Hydro5%GT
7%
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 34AIT
Generation share by technologies in total generation Generation share by technologies in total generation
under BAU and COunder BAU and CO22 emission reduction cases emission reduction cases
Thailand
Vietnam
BAU case (Thailand)
BIGCC0%
Conventional coal52%
Oil10%
CC30%
IPP5%
Hydro2%
Gas turbine
1%
15% reduction (Thailand)
Gas turbine
1%
Hydro2%
IPP6%
CC40%
Oil10%
Conventional coal32%
BIGCC9%
BAU case (Vietnam)
Hydro47%
Import2%
CC21%
Oil3%
Conventional coal27%
15% reduction case (Vietnam)Convent
ional coal16%
Oil2%
CC30%
Import2%
Hydro50%
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 35AIT
Generation share of technologies in total generation Generation share of technologies in total generation under BAU and COunder BAU and CO22 emission reduction cases emission reduction cases
Yunnan-China
Sri Lanka
BAU case (Yunnan-China)
Coal32%
Hydro68%
15% reduction case (Yunnan-China)
Coal27%
Hydro73%
BAU case (Sri Lanka)
Conventional Coal40%
Hydro34%
Oil26%
10% reduction case (Sri Lanka)
Conventional Coal29%
Hydro34%
Oil37%
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 36AIT
CDM Projects Selection CDM Projects Selection
Emission Amount in Base Case (E0)
Total Cost in Base Case (*) (C0)
Total Cost with the candidate CDM project as a committed plant (Case 1) Test Cost Criterion
C1>C0
Emission Amount in Case 1 (E1)
Env. Additionality CriterionE1(GHG) <E0(GHG)
E1(others) E0 (others)
Abatement Cost CriterionI < MAC
No CDM Project
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
Potential CDM
Incremental Costs Assessment
Implications of CDM
Additional Emission Mitigation
Incremental Cost of CDM (I)
Marginal Abatement Cost in Investing Country (MAC)
(*) The Candidate CDM project not selected in the Baseline.
COP 8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 37AIT
Marginal Abatement Costs, Marginal Abatement Costs, $/tonne of C at 1998 prices$/tonne of C at 1998 prices
Note:Marginal abatement costs are expressed in 1998 US $.
Ranges of MAC values: 3.5 to 9.0 $/tonne of Carbon at 5% reduction target 10.3 to 46.0 $/tonne of Carbon at 10% reduction target 12.8 to 57.0 $/tonne of Carbon at 20% reduction target
5% 10% 15% 20% 30%
Yunnan-China 3.5 15.7 26.8 28.9 38.8NREB-India 6.6 12.5 19.7 - -Indonesia 8.8 12.2 14.4 17.5 20.2Sri Lanka - 46.0 - 57.0 67.0Thailand 9.0 10.7 11.5 12.8 15.9Vietnam 8.7 10.3 11.8 15.2 20.0
CO2 emission reduction targets
top related