mlb: advanced tournament strategy

Course 3: MLB Strategy

Advanced Tournament Strategy

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Lesson Overview

Desired outcome is to create a lineup with a high ceiling. We can

accomplish this through the following levers:

I. Pitcher selection: key stats, vegas, weather & ballpark factors

II. Hitter selection: key stats, vegas, weather & ballpark factors

III. Lineup construction: stacking, multiple lineups, using an optimizer

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I. Pitcher Selection

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Pitcher Selection: Key Elements

Stat Notes

Vegas Data Team expected runs, win probability

wOBA Against Larger sample size is more indicative

Strikeouts / Opp. K/9, K/9 opposition

Ballpark/Weather Park factors, wind, avoid any chance of rain

Pitch Count Also combined with innings pitched

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Pitcher Selection: Key Stats

Source: Fantasy Labs 5

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Pitcher Selection: Using Vegas

Stat Notes

Team Totals Totals take into account many variables including weather, park factors etc..

Player Props They are not always accurate but can provide a general estimate

First 5 Innings Help eliminate bullpen influence

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II. Hitter Selection

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Hitter Selection: Key Elements

Stat Notes

Coors Field Largest run and HR rate

Batting Order Top of order tends to be high owned

Home Run Ability High power = high ceiling

Handedness Splits Matchup wOBA by RotoQL

Temperature/Wind Pay less attention to rain-outs

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Hitter Selection: Using Vegas

Stat Notes

Team Expected Runs Suggest predicted runs scored

Over/Under Best games with high predicted FPTs

Player Props Usually don’t get released until the day of game

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DK Fantasy Points vs Batting Order

Source: Daily Fantasy Sports Strategy10

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Average Batting by Split

Source: Daily Fantasy Sports Strategy11

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Source: Sports Baseball Americawww.rotoql.com

Hitter Selection: Weather & Ballpark Factors

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Hitter Selection: Weather & Ballpark Factors

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III. Lineup Construction

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Tournament Lineup Construction: Key Elements

Stat Notes

Salary Distribution FanDuel vs. DraftKings differences

Chalk Players “Obvious” favorites

Predicting Ownership Recent performance, matchup, value among factors

Stacking High predicted ceiling

Multiple Lineups Be aware of the exposure risks

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Pitcher Selection: Salary Distribution

Source: Daily Roto 16

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Chalk Players

What are chalk players?

● “Obvious” favorites that are highly owned and likely to perform well● If 7 out of 10 lineups in a tournament have Bryce Harper, he would be considered to be

70% owned

How do chalk players affect tournament lineups?

● Want to include chalk in certain situations

Example: ○ Kershaw’s probability to be a top scoring pitcher is 80% ○ His projected ownership is 60% ○ Result: Play him

● Note: May not want to go all chalk if your lineup is a duplicate, as that is a huge loss in EV

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Predicting Ownership

Source: DFS Mancave18

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Stacking

Examples:● Split Stacks - 5 v 3, 4 v 4 ● Mini Stacks - 4 v 3, 3 v 3, etc.● Popular - Coors Stacks, Batting 1-5 spots● Value Stacks - Less Heralded Offenses

Keep in Mind● Stack the Maximum ● More Valuable on FanDuel - RBI scoring● Be Mindful of % Total Salary

DraftKings FanDuel

Allowed Stack Size Up to 5 players Up to 4 players

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Stack Size vs Outcome [DraftKings]

Source: DraftKings Playbook20

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The Case for Multiple Tournament Lineups

Source: Chris Vox & Thomas Fuller via All In Mag

Percentile Finish (FD = blue, DK= red)

Number of Lineups

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