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1. Which segments of the mobile payments market are growing the fastest?
2. How will mobile payments vendors maximise their revenue opportunities?
3. What key trends are emerging on a market-by-market basis?
4. What are the key factors driving mobile payment market growth?
5. What strategies are mobile payments providers employing?
Key questions the report answers:
• Entire Ecosystem Analysed
• Expert Industry Intelligence
• Fully Updated Third Edition
This invaluable market sizing tool delivers an insightful synopsis of the opportunity for each of the mobile payment segments projecting gross mobile payment transaction values for eight key regions up until 2015. For more in-depth sector focused forecasts, please see each of three related reports within the mobile commerce stream.
This fully updated third edition defines the current mobile This fully updated third edition defines the current mobile payments market structure, exploring a number of vendor applications and services, central to emerging trends within the value chain over the past 12 months.
This report provides the definitive big picture view of the entire mobile payment market, delivering detailed vendor analysis and forecasts for three segments of this rapidly developing landscape; mobile payments for digital and physical goods, NFC retail marketing and mobile payments; and mobile money transfer & remittances (domestic and international).
Mobile CommerceMobile Content & Applications Handsets & Devices Mobile Markets & Strategies Networks & Technologies
Opportunities & Markets 2011-2015
Mobile Payment Strategies
Market Analysis & Strategic Assessment 2011-2015
Published July 2011
Mobile Payment Strategies: Opportunities & Markets 2011-2015
Page 1
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ...................................................................... 7
ES1 Remote and Proximity Payments ............................................................... 7
ES2 Report Focus: What is Included? ................................................................ 8
ES3 Market Drivers and Constraints .................................................................. 9
ES4 Market Projections ....................................................................................... 9
ES5 Recommendations ...................................................................................... 12
Mobile Commerce & Payments Market .................................... 15
1.1 Market Outline ............................................................................................. 15
1.1.1 Synopsis .................................................................................................................................................................. 15
1.1.2 Market Segmentation .......................................................................................................................................... 16
Figure 1.1: Mobile Commerce Market Segmentation ...................................................................................... 16
1.2 Market Drivers and Constraints ................................................................. 17
Figure 1.2: Mobile Payments: Summary of Market Drivers & Constraints ................................................ 17
1.2.1 Drivers .................................................................................................................................................................... 17
i. Convenience & User Demand .............................................................................................................................. 17
ii. Increase in ARPU .................................................................................................................................................... 18
iii. Larger Retail Transactions ................................................................................................................................... 18
iv. Cash Replacement ................................................................................................................................................. 18
v. Developing World .................................................................................................................................................. 18
vi. Lower Churn ........................................................................................................................................................... 19
vii. Smartphone Growth ............................................................................................................................................ 19
viii. SMS .......................................................................................................................................................................... 19
ix. eCommerce............................................................................................................................................................. 20
x. Migrant Worker Remittances .............................................................................................................................. 20
xi. Transaction Efficiency ........................................................................................................................................... 21
xii. Success Stories & PR ............................................................................................................................................ 21
xiii. Future Services ..................................................................................................................................................... 21
xiv. One to One Marketing ....................................................................................................................................... 21
1.2.2 Constraints ............................................................................................................................................................ 22
i. User Experience ....................................................................................................................................................... 22
ii. Business Model & Payouts .................................................................................................................................... 23
Figure 1.3: NFC Ecosystem Top Level View ..................................................................................................... 23
iii. Smartphone Proliferation ..................................................................................................................................... 25
Mobile Payment Strategies: Opportunities & Markets 2011-2015
Page 2
iv. Regulatory Hurdles ............................................................................................................................................... 25
v. Transaction Costs ................................................................................................................................................... 26
vi. Disclosure ................................................................................................................................................................ 26
vii. Inadequate Local Agent Networks................................................................................................................... 26
viii. Device Availability ................................................................................................................................................ 26
ix. Service Complexity and Management .............................................................................................................. 27
Figure 1.4: NFC Ecosystem Detailed View ........................................................................................................ 27
Mobile Payments: Market Structure and Trends ...................... 30
2.1 Definition....................................................................................................... 30
Figure 2.1: mCommerce Payment Process ........................................................................................................ 30
2.2 Market Segmentation .................................................................................. 31
2.2.1 Top level Segments ............................................................................................................................................. 31
Figure 2.2: Mobile Payments Market Segmentation ......................................................................................... 32
2.2.2 Market Segment Detail ...................................................................................................................................... 33
i. Remote Payments .................................................................................................................................................... 33
ii. Proximity/POS Payments ...................................................................................................................................... 33
2.2.3 Market Segment Boundaries ............................................................................................................................. 33
i. Mobile Money Transfer Service Expansion ....................................................................................................... 34
ii. Variation Within Segments ................................................................................................................................... 34
Figure 2.3: Arriva Buses Mobile Ticketing Service ........................................................................................... 34
iii. Platform & Service Extension ............................................................................................................................. 35
iv. Emerging Segments ................................................................................................................................................ 36
2.2.4 Report Focus: What is Included?..................................................................................................................... 36
2.3 Classification of Payment Schemes ........................................................... 36
Table 2.1: Mobile Payment Classification ......................................................................................................... 36
2.3.1 Mobile Phone Bill – “D2B” (Direct to Bill) Payment .................................................................................. 37
2.3.2 Premium Rate SMS (PSMS) ............................................................................................................................... 38
i. Advantages of PSMS Payment ............................................................................................................................... 38
ii. Disadvantages of PSMS Payment ......................................................................................................................... 38
2.3.3 Mobile Web & WAP Billing .............................................................................................................................. 39
2.3.4 SMS/Java/SIM Toolkit .......................................................................................................................................... 40
Figure 2.4: PayPal Mobile “Text To Buy” ........................................................................................................... 40
Figure 2.5: PayMate Purchase Process ................................................................................................................ 41
2.3.5 Person-to-Person (P2P) Payment .................................................................................................................... 41
2.3.6 Smartphone Apps ................................................................................................................................................ 42
Figure 2.6: SBB Swiss Railways iPhone App ....................................................................................................... 42
2.3.7 NFC Contactless Payment ................................................................................................................................ 42
i. NFC Technology ...................................................................................................................................................... 42
Figure 2.7: Typical NFC Implementation ............................................................................................................ 44
Mobile Payment Strategies: Opportunities & Markets 2011-2015
Page 3
ii. NFC Implementation .............................................................................................................................................. 44
Figure 2.8: Oyster Card Using MIFARE Technology ....................................................................................... 44
Figure 2.9: Uses of NFC .......................................................................................................................................... 45
Figure 2.10: N Mark Logo ....................................................................................................................................... 45
iii. NFC in the Device ................................................................................................................................................. 46
iv. Interim NFC Form Factor Solutions ................................................................................................................. 46
Figure 2.11: Integration Phase Comparison – NFC and Mobile Broadband.............................................. 47
Figure 2.12: Twinlinx My-Max NFC Sticker ....................................................................................................... 47
Figure 2.13: Giesecke & Devrient NFC SD Card ............................................................................................. 48
Figure 2.14: NFC Case for iPhone ....................................................................................................................... 48
Figure 2.15: VeriFone PAYware Mobile Enterprise ......................................................................................... 49
v. Further Vertical Markets ....................................................................................................................................... 49
2.3.8 In Store ................................................................................................................................................................... 49
Figure 2.16: Mocapay Mobile Commerce Platform.......................................................................................... 50
2.4 On Deck & Off Deck .................................................................................... 50
Case Studies: Applications and Services ................................... 52
3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................. 52
3.2 Digital Goods Case Studies ......................................................................... 52
3.2.1 Greater Copenhagen Traffic Companies (Denmark) ................................................................................. 52
Figure 3.1: Mobile Ticketing in Copenhagen – 1415.dk .................................................................................. 53
3.2.2 Badoo & Ericsson ................................................................................................................................................. 53
3.2.3 TDC Denmark & Aepona .................................................................................................................................. 54
3.2.4 Virgin Media & OpenMarket (UK) .................................................................................................................. 54
3.3 Physical Goods Case Studies ....................................................................... 55
3.3.1 Danal (Korea) ....................................................................................................................................................... 55
Figure 3.2: Danal Mobile Payment Service ......................................................................................................... 55
Figure 3.3: Danal Mobile Payment Transaction Value 2001-2010 (KRW 100m) ..................................... 56
3.3.2 Brooks Brothers & Digby (US)......................................................................................................................... 56
Figure 3.4: Brooks Brothers Mobile Site............................................................................................................. 57
3.3.3 Amazon................................................................................................................................................................... 57
Figure 3.5: Amazon Mobile Shopping................................................................................................................... 58
3.3.4 eBay Mobile ........................................................................................................................................................... 58
Figure 3.6: eBay “Store in Your Pocket” ............................................................................................................ 59
3.4 NFC Case Studies ......................................................................................... 59
3.4.1 France Telecom Orange .................................................................................................................................... 59
i. Orange Strategy ........................................................................................................................................................ 59
ii. Cityzi Pilot ................................................................................................................................................................. 60
Figure 3.7: Cityzi Mobile Ticketing ....................................................................................................................... 60
3.4.2 Telefonica, Visa & La Caixa (Spain) ................................................................................................................. 62
Mobile Payment Strategies: Opportunities & Markets 2011-2015
Page 4
Figure 3.8: Sitges Mobile Shopping ....................................................................................................................... 62
3.4.3 Osaifu-keitai (Japan) ............................................................................................................................................ 63
i. FeliCa Services ..................................................................................................................................................... 63
Figure 3.9: Osaifu-Keitai Service Concept ......................................................................................................... 63
ii. NTT DOCOMO and KT ............................................................................................................ 64
3.4.4 MasterCard, Gemalto, Garanti Bank and Avea (Turkey) .......................................................................... 64
3.5 Mobile Money Transfers and Remittances ................................................ 65
3.5.1 Safaricom M-PESA ............................................................................................................................................... 65
i. Service Description ................................................................................................................................................. 65
ii. Service Statistics ...................................................................................................................................................... 65
Figure 3.10: M-PESA Tariff ..................................................................................................................................... 66
iii. Service Developments .......................................................................................................................................... 66
3.5.2 Smart Money......................................................................................................................................................... 66
Figure 3.11: SmartMoney Service Features ........................................................................................................ 67
Figure 3.12: Smart Money Online Stores ........................................................................................................... 68
3.5.3 Western Union .................................................................................................................................................... 68
Figure 3.13: Western Union Product Development Strategy ...................................................................... 70
3.5.4 mService (Vietnam) ............................................................................................................................................. 70
Vendors and Solutions ................................................................. 74
4.1 Aepona .......................................................................................................... 74
Figure 4.1: Aepona NaaS Concept ....................................................................................................................... 76
4.2 C-SAM ........................................................................................................... 76
4.3 Digby .............................................................................................................. 77
Figure 4.2: Digby Rich Retailer Branded App .................................................................................................... 80
4.4 eServGlobal .................................................................................................. 80
Figure 4.3: eServGlobal Product Overview ....................................................................................................... 81
4.5 Ericsson ......................................................................................................... 82
Figure 4.4: Ericsson IPX Ecosystem ..................................................................................................................... 83
4.6 Fundamo ....................................................................................................... 84
4.7 Gemalto ........................................................................................................ 86
4.8 MoreMagic .................................................................................................... 88
4.9 Seamless ........................................................................................................ 89
4.10 tyntec ........................................................................................................... 91
4.11 Utiba ............................................................................................................ 92
4.12 VeriFone ...................................................................................................... 94
4.13 ViVOtech..................................................................................................... 95
Mobile Payment Strategies: Opportunities & Markets 2011-2015
Page 5
Market Forecasts ......................................................................... 97
5.1 Methodology ................................................................................................. 98
5.1.1 Approach and Assumptions .............................................................................................................................. 98
Figure 5.1: Market Forecast Methodology ......................................................................................................... 98
5.2 Global Mobile Subscriber Forecast ............................................................ 99
Figure 5.2: Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015 ........................................... 100
Table 5.1: Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015 ............................................. 100
5.3 Mobile Payment Market Forecasts........................................................... 101
5.3.1 Digital and Physical Goods ............................................................................................................................. 101
i. Digital Goods .......................................................................................................................................................... 101
Figure 5.3: Total Remote mPayment Gross Transaction Value for Digital Goods ($m) Split by 8 Key
Regions 2011-2015 ................................................................................................................................................ 102
Table 5.2: Total Remote mPayment Gross Transaction Value for Digital Goods ($m) Split by 8 Key
Regions 2011-2015 .............................................................................................................................................. 102
ii. Physical Goods ....................................................................................................................................................... 103
Figure 5.4: Total Remote mPayment Gross Merchandise Sales Transaction Value for Physical Goods
($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015........................................................................................................... 103
Table 5.3: Total Remote mPayment Gross Merchandise Sales Transaction Value for Physical Goods
($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015 ......................................................................................................... 104
iii. Digital and Physical Goods Combined ............................................................................................................ 104
Figure 5.5: Global Remote mPayment Market: Gross Merchandise Sales Transaction Value ($m) Split
by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015 .............................................................................................................................. 105
Table 5.4: Global Remote mPayment Market: Gross Merchandise Sales Transaction Value ($m)
Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015 ................................................................................................................... 106
Figure 5.6: Global Remote mPayment Market: Gross Merchandise Sales Transaction Value (%) Split
by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015 .............................................................................................................................. 107
Table 5.5: Global Remote mPayment Market: Gross Merchandise Sales Transaction Value (%) Split
by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015 ............................................................................................................................. 107
Figure 5.7: Global Remote mPayment Market: Gross Merchandise Sales Transaction Value (%)
Digital vs. Physical Goods Comparison 2011-2015 ...................................................................................... 108
Table 5.6: Global Remote mPayment Market: Gross Merchandise Sales Transaction Value (%)
Digital vs. Physical Goods Comparison 2011-2015 ..................................................................................... 108
5.3.2 NFC109
Figure 5.8: Total NFC Ticketing and Retail Payments Transaction Value ($m) p.a. Split by 8 Key
Regions 2011-2015 ................................................................................................................................................ 109
Table 5.7: Total NFC Ticketing and Retail Payments Transaction Value ($m) p.a. Split by 8 Key
Regions 2011-2015 .............................................................................................................................................. 109
Figure 5.9: Total NFC Ticketing and Retail Payments Transaction Value (%) p.a. Split by 8 Key
Regions 2011 & 2015 ............................................................................................................................................ 110
Table 5.8: Total NFC Ticketing and Retail Payments Transaction Value (%) p.a. Split by 8 Key
Regions 2011 & 2015 .......................................................................................................................................... 110
5.3.3 Mobile Money Transfers ................................................................................................................................. 111
Figure 5.10: Total Value of All Mobile Money Transfers ($m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011–2015
.................................................................................................................................................................................... 111
Mobile Payment Strategies: Opportunities & Markets 2011-2015
Page 6
Table 5.9: Total Value of All Mobile Money Transfers ($m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2011–2015
.................................................................................................................................................................................. 111
Figure 5.11: Comparison of Domestic, Sophisticated Financial Services & International Mobile Money
Transfer Transaction Values (% of total) 2011-2015 .................................................................................... 112
Table 5.10: Comparison of Domestic, Sophisticated Financial Services & International Mobile
Money Transfer Transaction Values (% of total) 2011-2015 .................................................................... 112
5.3.4 Total Mobile Payment Market ........................................................................................................................ 113
i. Regional Split ........................................................................................................................................................... 113
Figure 5.12: Total Mobile Payment Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 – 2015........................ 113
Table 5.11: Total Mobile Payment Market ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 – 2015 ...................... 114
Figure 5.13: Total Mobile Payment Market (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 – 2015 .......................... 114
Table 5.12: Total Mobile Payment Market (%) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 – 2015 ......................... 115
ii. Market Segment Split ........................................................................................................................................... 116
Figure 5.14: Total Mobile Payment Market ($m) Split by Digital & Physical Goods, NFC & Mobile
Money Transfers 2011 – 2015 ............................................................................................................................ 116
Table 5.13: Total Mobile Payment Market ($m) Split by Digital & Physical Goods, NFC & Mobile
Money Transfers 2011 – 2015 .......................................................................................................................... 116
Figure 5.15: Total Mobile Payment Market (%) Split by Digital & Physical Goods, NFC & Mobile
Money Transfers 2011 – 2015 ............................................................................................................................ 117
Table 5.14: Total Mobile Payment Market (%) Split by Digital & Physical Goods, NFC & Mobile
Money Transfers 2011 – 2015 .......................................................................................................................... 117
Glossary ............................................................................................................. 118
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