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European mobile revenue growth and outlook Q2 2012

Growth drops, worse to come

Tim Hatt +44 207 851 0904 tim.hatt@endersanalysis.com

James Barford +44 207 851 0901 james.barford@endersanalysis.com

21 August 2012

Mobile revenue growth and outlook Q2 2012: Growth drops, worse to come [2012-082] 2

1. Summary

2. Reported and underlying revenue growth

3. Country analysis

4. Appendix

Executive summary: Growth drops, worse to come

• In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European

markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the

operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the

underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request• Reported mobile revenue growth across the top five markets in Europe dropped back in the June quarter, by 0.4ppts

to -3.7%. The regulatory impact felt by these markets mitigated slightly, so growth on an underlying basis (excluding

the impact of MTR cuts) declined by 0.5ppts to -0.9%

• While it is disappointing that underlying growth dipped, it is at least still above the level of growth seen in the

December 2011 quarter (-1.4%)

• The drop in the overall market in the June quarter was principally volume-led, with call volume growth dropping in

coordinated fashion across each of the five markets, suggesting a macro-led decline was to blame, although the drop

in volume growth is probably not quite as bad as it looks given that volumes were likely boosted in the March quarterby the leap year/extra day impact (around 1ppt)

• There is a strong north-south divide in performance; the northern European markets of the UK, Germany and France

are actually performing relatively well, with underlying growth improving in Q2. It is the southern markets of Italy

and Spain that continue to drag growth, with these markets suffering both from deteriorating macro environments

and competitive pricing

• Germany remains the strongest economy of the top five, with relatively high consumer confidence, and this has no

doubt helped the strong volume growth. It has also benefitted from an MTR cut holiday, although this will come to

an end from December

• The UK does not have quite such a strong economy, but performance has been helped by firm pricing and a healthy

data contribution, itself driven by the UK having the highest penetration of smartphone owners choosing to take a

data plan. The downside is that it still faces a stubbornly high regulatory burden, with this now higher in 2012 than it

otherwise would have been in light of a recent adverse regulatory ruling

Executive summary: Growth drops, worse to come

• Volumes remain relatively healthy in France, and while pricing remains competitive, it has eased slightly in the

months following Free Mobile’s launch in January 2012. Three of the operators have not yet reported their results,

but based on Orange’s reporting and data published by the regulator, we estimate that underlying revenue growth

once again improved for the market as a whole, although growth for the incumbents dropped down. Free Mobileitself is likely still enjoying substantial subscriber net adds, although these appear to have slowed considerably in Q2,

allowing the other operators to return to net subscriber growth

• Italy’s mobile market growth dropped sharply, having briefly improved in the March quarter. This was a volume-led

decline, with pricing in this market also weak. It is difficult for the operators to raise prices given that consumes are

sapped of optimism and the market is dominated by prepay, making pricing differences between the operators more

transparent (which plays into the hands of smaller players and puts pressure on their larger competitors)

• Spain is beset not only by a deteriorating economy and consumer confidence (with unemployment running at 25%,

and youth unemployment over 50%), but also by a fierce pricing environment. The situation is not being helped bythe recent self-inflicted decision by most operators to abolish handset subsidies for new customers. While it can be

defensibly argued that a reduction in subsidies is appropriate (even overdue), their outright elimination is not; the

main effect so far has been to drive customers towards the smaller operators and MVNOs, whose discount/no-frills

offers are now more transparent, or to leave the contract market altogether now that the main incentive for getting

a contract (a shiny new handset included in the bundle) is gone

• The outlook for the European mobile market is bleak given that the regulatory impact will rise from the September

quarter and then again in the March 2013 quarter (bringing a combined 1.8ppt further headwind to growth), with

consumer confidence already very weak and deteriorating in July. The northern European markets are operating in

relatively stable competitive environments, but the southern markets of Italy and Spain face severe pricecompetition, with a high risk of further deterioration in underlying growth. We therefore expect European mobile

revenue growth to get worse before it gets better, with little prospect for significant improvement before H2 2013

1. Summary

3. Country analysis

4. Appendix

Reported mobile revenue growth

• European mobile revenue growth dropped down in the June

quarter, by 0.4ppts to -3.7%

• The country level performances suggest a strong north-south

divide, with growth in the northern European markets actuallyimproving, while the southern markets of Italy and Spain worsen

• Among the operator groups, T-Mobile enjoyed a small

improvement in Q2, while TIM dropped sharply, reversing the

improvement of Q1; Telefonica’s growth continues to deteriorate,

driven by poor performance in its domestic market -1.1%-0.2% -0.1%

-3.0% -3.4%

-3.3% -3.7%

Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar -12 Jun-12

[Source: Enders Analysis based on company reports]

Reported mobile revenue growth –Top 5 European markets

Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar -11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12

Service revenue growth by market

UK Germany France Italy Spain

Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12

Vodafone FT T-Mobile TEF TIM

Service revenue growth by operator group –Top 5 Europeanmarkets

Underlying mobile revenue growth

• The MTR impact lessened in Q2, which meant that underlying

growth actually dropped by 0.5ppts to -0.9%

• While this is a disappointment given that growth had (briefly)

ticked up in the March quarter (perhaps helped by the extra dayleap year effect), market growth is at least still above the level seen

in December 2011

• Germany and the UK remain the powerhouses of growth, with the

French market as a whole also improving. Unfortunately, Italy and

Spain both weakened in Q2

• The macro environment continues to be challenging across Europe,

although it is particularly acute in the southern markets, with both

GDP growth and consumer confidence dropping sharply in 2012

2.7% 1.6% 1.9%

2.6%3.6%

2.7%-1.1%

-0.2% -0.1%

-3.0%-3.4%

-3.3%-3.7%

1.6%1.4%

0.8% 0.6%0.0%

-0.4%-0.9%

Regulation Reported Underlying

Underlying service revenue growth –Top 5 European markets

Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar -11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12

Underlying service revenue growth by market

C o n s u m e r c o n f i d e n c e

R e a l G D

P g r o w t h

Key macro indicators

N. Europe S. Europe [Source: Enders Analysis based on Eurostat]

• The MTR impact once again lessened in the June quarter, partially

mitigating the fall in mobile revenue growth

• Unfortunately, the progressive lessening over the last year has now

come to an end; the impact will rise from the September quarter assteep cuts in Italy come online, and we estimate a further rise

above 4% from the March 2013 quarter

• The timing of the various glidepaths across Europe means that the

aggregate regulatory impact will stubbornly remain above 3% until

the end of 2013, after which it will die down to manageable levels

before disappearing altogether as termination revenue becomes an

insignificant part of overall revenue

Regulatory cuts and outlook

3.7% 3.7%

1.8%2.5% 2.7%

Regulatory impact by market

Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 [Source: Enders Analysis]

3.6%3.4%

3.2%2.9%

3.3% 3.4%

4.5%4.0%

2.6% 2.6%

Regulatory impact - Top 5 European markets

[Source: Enders Analysis]

ForecastActual

28.1%30.2%

3.2% 3.1% 3.4%0.9%

2011 2012 2013 2014

Annual regulatory impact

Average termination rate cut Impact on service revenue

[Source: Enders Analysis]

Overall growth drivers

• Call volume growth across Europe dropped

back sharply in Q2, reversing the

improvement seen in Q1

• While the drop was probably not as steep asit looks given that the March quarter likely

benefitted from the leap year/extra day

effect (an impact of around 1ppt), growth

dipped down in each of the top five markets,

suggesting ongoing macro weakness is to

• Weakening volume growth was the main

driver behind the drop in mobile service

revenue growth, partially mitigated by firmed

pricing

• While the impact from inbound voice, SMS

and data varies by market, their aggregate

contribution to growth at the European level

was largely unchanged

9Mobile revenue growth and outlook Q2 2012: Growth drops, worse to come [2012-082]

Outbound voice

volume

Inbound voice SMS Data Service revenue

growth

Contributions to mobile service revenue growth

Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 [Source: Enders Analysis based on company reports]

5.9%4.8%

2.1%3.2%

4.0%5.2%

5.8%5.2%

4.3% 4.8% 4.3%

Estimated market minutes growth –Top 5 European markets

Country by country analysis

Market position on key metrics, June 2012

GDP growthUnderlying

premium/(deficit) toGDP

Underlying growth MTR impact Reported growth

UK -0.5% 2.7% 2.2% 3.8% -1.6%

Germany 1.2% 1.9% 3.1% 0.0% 3.1%

France 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 3.7% -3.4%

Italy -2.4% -0.3% -2.7% 3.7% -6.4%

Spain -1.0% -9.2% -10.2% 1.8% -12.0%

Top 5 markets -0.5% -0.5% -0.9% 2.7% -3.7%

• The UK and Germany have the strongest underlying mobile

markets, with the UK driven by firm pricing (only a high MTR

impact drags its reported growth negative) and Germany by a

relatively strong economy• Underlying growth in France is also positive despite still heavy price

competition, but since it faces a high MTR impact, its reported

growth is negative

• Italy operates in a very weak economy and also suffers from

competitive pricing, with underlying growth firmly negative, and

reported growth even lower given the high MTR impact

• Spain remains by far the weakest market; while it already suffersfrom a weak macro environment and competitive pricing, recent

internal market changes (i.e. removing handset subsidies) has not

helped, with underlying growth now declining in double digits

Key (impact on growth) Positive Moderate Negative[Source: Enders Analysis]

Vodafone performance

• Vodafone’s competitive performance

weakened slightly in the quarter, which was

mainly driven by weakened performances in

the UK and Italy

• It is still performing very well by historical

standards, with this particularly evident

relative to the incumbent operators, where it

continues to outperform by around 5ppts

Mobile service revenue growth

Vodafone Incumbents Other operators

Note: includes UK, Germany, Italy, Spain[Source: Enders Analysis based on company reports]

-4%-2%

Mar-09Jun-09 Sep-09Dec-09Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11Mar-12 Jun-12

Gap between Vodafone and competitors (ppts)

Incumbents Other operators Overall

Note: gap is difference in service revenue growth between Vodafone and competitorsIncludes UK, Germany, Italy, Spain

Outlook

• European economic conditions continue to

remain very challenging, with aggregate

growth across the top five markets turning

negative for the first time since 2009• The UK, Italy and Spain are all in technical

recession, and on the EC’s latest economic

forecasts (issued May 2012), growth across

the top five markets is not expected to turn

positive until the March 2013 quarter

• Given that the MTR impact will rise from the

September quarter and again in Q1 2013, the

European mobile market is likely to face

significant economic and regulatory

headwinds through 2012 and into 2013

We therefore expect mobile revenue growthto get worse before it gets better, with

significant improvement unlikely before H2

1.9%1.0%

-5.4%-5.2%-4.4%

0.7%1.9%2.1% 2.0%2.1%

1.4%1.2%0.8%0.0%

-0.5%-0.7%-0.4%

0.1%0.8%1.1%1.5%

Real GDP growth

Actual Forecast [Source: Enders Analysis based on EC Spring Economic Forecast, May 2012]

2.1%1.3%

0.3%0.7%

-1.0%-2.0%

-3.5%-3.3%

-1.7%-1.1%

-0.2%-0.1%-1.8%

-3.0%-3.4%-4.6%

-3.3%-3.7%-4.3%-4.4%

-5.4%-4.9%-3.6%-3.6%

Reported service revenue growth outlook

Outlook assumingunderlying growth

remains flat

Actual reportedgrowth

3. Country analysis

1. Summary

4. Appendix

Contributions to mobile revenue growth

Top 5 European markets, Q2 2012

Voice priceVoice

volumeOutbound

voiceInbound

voiceTotal voice SMS Data

OtherMNOs*

Reportedgrowth

UK -1.2% -1.1% -2.3% -4.0% -6.3% -1.3% 6.0% -1.6%

Germany -4.3% 1.7% -2.6% 0.2% -2.4% 0.8% 4.7% 3.1%

France -11.4% 7.1% -4.4% -1.8% -6.2% 0.9% 1.9% -3.4%

Italy -6.7% 2.0% -4.7% -2.7% -7.4% -0.6% 1.6% 0.0% -6.4%

Spain -6.5% -4.5% -11.0% -2.3% -13.3% -2.1% 3.1% 0.2% -12.0%

• Below we show the key drivers of overall mobile revenue growth for

each market on a side-by-side basis; we explore the drivers in more

detail for each country on an individual basis in the following slides

• The percentages shown are contributions to overall revenue

growth; i.e. the impact of a change in a particular metric on overall

revenue growth

*In some cases detailed data for all the operators is not available; we have estimated where there are gaps, but forsome smaller operators this would be speculative, so we have shown their contribution separately

UK focus

• Underlying growth in the UK nudged down slightly in the June

quarter, but at 2.2% remains one of the strongest in Europe

• Volumes continued to weaken, but the market continues to benefit

from relatively firm pricing and a healthy data contribution, drivenby rising penetration of smartphone customers with a data plan

• On the regulatory front, on 12 May 2012 Ofcom enacted a CAT

decision to speed up the MTR glidepath by a year; as a result, the

market will face a higher impact for the rest of 2012 than it

otherwise would have under the original proposals

• The outlook for the market remains challenging given the weak

economic outlook and high MTR impact until H2 2013, with mobile

revenue growth unlikely to improve significantly before then

-1.4%-0.6%

-2.8%-2.1%

2.5%3.2%

3.1% 3.3%3.9%

1.7%2.4% 2.2%

Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12

Reported and underlying service revenue growth

Reported Es timated under lying

Minutes Revenue per minute

Outbound minutes and voice revenue per minute growth

Outbound voice Inbound voice SMS Data Service revenue

growth

Contributions to mobile service revenue growth

Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12

UK market analysis

• EE improved its growth again in Q2, with it now growing at around

the same level as Vodafone, which dipped down a little

• Despite weak top line growth, O2 has markedly improved its

commercial performance over the last year, winning an increasing

share of contract customers, which should help its revenue growth

moving forwards as these feed through to the base

• H3G continues to perform very well with growth of around 15%, as

it benefits from the continued strong contract net adds from H2

2011 and into H1 2012

• It has commendably reduced its churn to a level similar to that of its

competitors , but this is likely to come under pressure in H2 as the

smartphone customers it acquired during its push in 2010 come up

for renewal

EE Vodafone O2 H3G Virgin

Reported mobile service revenue growth by operator

EE Vodafone O2 H3G Virgin

Contract net additions (000)

EE Vodafone O2 H3G

Annualised contract churn

UK financial performance

• Margins have gradually increased at Vodafone over the last year, while

they remain subdued at EE and O2

• All of the operators will have enjoyed a dual benefit from falling prepay

volumes and lower subsidies to acquire these customers, but other

factors are also at play

– EE increased its contract retentions by 9% in H1, with its margin

dropping down

– O2 has pulled back on the contract retention drive it made in Q1,

but weak revenue growth is still driving negative operating leverage

• Capex dropped down at EE in H1, although the spend for it and its

competitors is roughly in line with seasonal trends

• Vodafone’s strong cost control and stable top line growth mean it nowhas the highest cashflow margin among the big 3 operators

20.4% 22.7%

24.0% 23.5%

EE Vodafone O2

EBITDA margin by operator, last 12 months

Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12

Note: Vodafone figures are for the 12 months to March and SeptemberEE excludes fixed line and restructuring costs

100150

EE Vodafone O2

Capex by operator, last 6 months (£m)

Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12

Note: Vodafone is for the 6 months to March and September; EE excludes fixed line[Source: Enders Analysis based on company reports]

649 719 710

13.3%12.1%

EE Vodafone O2

Cashflow Cashflow %

Note: Vodafone is for the 12 months to March; EE excludes fixed line[Source: Enders Analysis based on company reports]

Cashflow (EBITDA-capex) margin by operator12 months to June 2012 (£m)

Germany focus

• The German mobile market remains one of the strongest in Europe,with underlying growth rising in Q2, by 0.2ppts to 3.1%

• The market continues to operate in relatively benign economic

conditions, and while volume growth nudged down in Q2, this wasmore than made up for by firmer pricing

• At the operator level, growth improved for Vodafone and T-Mobile,although growth for both of the smaller operators remains robust

• Looking forward, the market will continue to enjoy the MTR holidayuntil the end of November (i.e. Q3 and most of Q4); the regulator hasyet to specify whether/when MTRs will fall further beyond this, butour current expectation is that cuts will be implemented around theend of 2012/start of 2013, bringing a renewed regulatory headwind

• While growth may therefore improve in the short term, it is likely tocome under renewed pressure from the end of 2012

2.9%3.8%

-0.6%-1.1% -1.0%

2.9% 3.1%

2.6%2.9%

3.8%4.7% 4.5%

4.0% 3.9% 3.7%2.9% 3.1%

Reported Estimated u nderlying

Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11Mar-12 Jun-12

Service revenue growth by operator

T-Mobile Vodafone O2 E-Plus

Launch of Free Mobile: six months on

• Orange is the only French mobile operator to

have reported so far, but the French regulator

ARCEP has reported subscriber figures for the

total market, MVNOs as a group and the totalvolume of number ports

• The evidence suggests that Free Mobile

subscriber acquisition has slowed dramatically

since Q1, with number port volumes down

dramatically, and both Orange and the

MVNOs as a group returning to positive

contract net adds in Q2 after declines in Q1

• However, Free Mobile is likely still enjoying

strong growth in absolute terms, with number

ports still above their historical norms; we

estimate that it gained 0.8m in Q2 (with a

reasonably wide range of uncertainty around

• As discussed in our report Launch of Free

Mobile [2012-021] , the challenge for Free will

come in Q3 2012 and beyond as its voice and

text termination rates are forced to convergewith its competitors

0.2 0.2

0.10.20.5

0.40.3 0.2

0.20.0 0.0

0.80.7 0.9

1.61.4

Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12

Contract net additions (m)

Orange SFR and Bouygues* MVNOs Free* Market

*Estimate made for Q2 2012 as not yet reported[Source: Enders Analysis based on company reports, ARCEP]

0.5 0.60.7 0.8 0.7 0.7

Numbers ported in France (m)

[Source: ARCEP]

Free Mobile launch,10 January 2012

France focus

• Orange is the only operator to have reported, but based on

ARCEP’s reporting of subscribers, we estimate that underlying

market revenue growth rose again in the June quarter to 0.4%

• While this is an improvement at the market level, Orange’s growthdeclined and we estimate growth also weakened for the other two

incumbents

• The market had been hit by competitive pricing in the quarters

leading up to Free’s launch in January 2012, and while there has

been some firming in the June quarter, pricing remains very weak

• The outlook is more positive, as the MTR impact has likely reached

its peak and will fall in Q3, providing a boost to reported revenue

growth of around 1.3ppts and a further boost of 0.7ppts in Q1 2013

-0.6% -1.1%-0.4% -0.7%

-2.3% -2.5%

-4.6%-3.4%

3.4%2.9% 2.6% 2.4%

0.9% 0.8%

-0.8% 0.4%

Reported Estimated underlying

Note: includes our estimate for Free Mobile[Source: Enders Analysis based on company reports]

Orange SFR* Bouygues*

*Estimate for June 2012 quarter as not yet reported[Source: Enders Analysis based on company reports]

Italy focus

• The mobile market in Italy dropped back sharply in the Junequarter, with underlying growth returning to negative territoryafter a brief respite in Q1

The drop was principally volume led, with this not being offset byany firming in pricing

• The fall in growth was felt at each of the largest three operators;H3G defied the wider market fall, with its growth continuing to rise,although it has done this largely by increasing spend to acquirecontract customers, which will hit margins moving forwards

• The outlook for the market is very tough; Italy is already inrecession, while the MTR impact will rise steeply (c.4ppts) from Q3and remain elevated for the next year, with mobile revenue growth

likely to deteriorate in H2 2012 and remain subdued until H2 2013 atthe earliest

-2.6% -3.0%-3.6% -3.7%

-5.9% -5.6% -5.7%-6.5%

0.0% -0.3%-1.1% -0.9%

-3.1% -2.7% -2.4%-3.0%

Reported Estimated u nder lying

Note: includes TIM, Vodafone and WIND[Source: Enders Analysis based on company reports]

TIM Vodafone Wind H3G

Spain: impact of SAC elimination

• Three of the operators in Spain recently moved

away from the traditional handset subsidy

model for new customers (but not upgrades) in

favour of a handset-financing structure, with

Telefonica implementing the change in March,

Vodafone in April and Yoigo in May

• While this has helped with churn and outgoing

number ports, it has hit new customer sign-ups

much harder, with both Telefonica and

Vodafone now suffering significant contract net

losses

• Part of the problem is that the removing the

subsidy on the handset as part of a larger bundle

makes the price of the actual mobile service

more transparent, which tends to favour the

smaller operators and MVNOs, who have

historically marketed lower price/no frills offers

for precisely this reason

• The aggregate contract market growth for the

mobile operators (i.e. excluding MVNOs) has

dropped dramatically, partly due to losses toMVNOs, but also due to a general market

slowdown; without subsidies, many are

choosing not to take out a contract, either

picking prepay or not getting a mobile at all

• A reduction in new subscriber handset subsidies

in Spain was long overdue, but their elimination

is having unintended consequences

371 387

286369

-128 -118

200300

Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12

Contract net additions (000)

TEM* Vodafone Orange Yoigo Total MNO

*Adjusted in March 2012 quarter for one-off c.800k disconnection[Source: Enders Analysis based on company reports]

1,408 1,447 1,462

Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12

Total number ports (000)

[Source: Enders Analysis based on CMT, company reports]

• Mobile revenue growth continues to move downwards in Spain, with

it falling 1.5ppts to -10.2% on an underlying basis in the June quarter

• Spain is by far the weakest European mobile market, with volumes

dropping (driven by weakening consumer confidence), and pricingfailing to make up for this

• Growth continues to fall at all of the operators, with Telefonica and

Vodafone’s growth languishing in double digits, with the recent SAC

change not helping

• Looking forwards, the outlook remains difficult: Spain is in recession

with unemployment running at 25% and confidence deteriorating.

The regulatory impact will at least not get any worse before

September 2013, although it will then rise by 3.5ppts, adding afurther headwind to growth

Spain focus

TEM Vodafone Orange Yoigo

-4.8% -4.1% -4.4% -5.0% -4.5% -4.9% -5.6%

-10.5%-12.0%

-1.8% -1.4% -1.7% -2.7% -2.3% -2.9%-3.6%

-8.7%-10.2%

Reported Estimated u nderlying

Note: includes Telefonica, Vodafone and Orange[Source: Enders Analysis based on company reports]

4. Appendix

1. Summary

3. Country analysis

Reported mobile service revenue

Service revenue €m Market share Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12

EE 1,834 33% -2.6% -1.9% -4.0% -2.5% -1.1%

O2 1,510 27% -4.5% -4.8% -8.6% -8.3% -7.9%

Vodafone 1,479 27% 1.5% 2.2% 0.3% 0.2% -0.6%

H3G 516 9% 7.1% 11.6% 14.0% 14.0% 14.4%Virgin 166 3% -2.0% -0.4% 0.1% 1.3% 4.0%

UK 5,505 100% -1.4% -0.6% -2.8% -2.1% -1.6%

Vodafone 1,727 35% 0.6% -0.2% 0.9% 4.1% 4.8%

T-Mobile 1,690 34% -3.4% -3.1% -1.6% -1.8% -0.9%

KPN 791 16% -0.5% -0.6% 1.2% 4.2% 3.0%

O2 789 16% 0.1% 1.9% 2.1% 10.5% 8.5%

Germany 4,997 100% -1.1% -1.0% 0.2% 2.9% 3.1%

Orange 2,350 43% -0.2% -3.5% -4.5% -4.7% -5.8%

SFR* 1,854 34% -6.5% -6.6% -8.7% -7.0% -7.5%

Bouygues* 1,116 20% -0.2% -3.7% -6.7% -7.4% -7.9%

Free Mobile* 199 4%

France 5,519 100% -2.5% -4.6% -6.5% -4.6% -3.4%

Vodafone 1,669 36% -2.6% -4.9% -6.4% -4.5% -8.6%

TIM 1606 35% -10.3% -7.5% -7.0% -3.7% -7.5%

Wind 954 21% 0.0% -1.0% -2.3% -0.1% -3.1%

H3G 385 8% -9.7% -12.3% -15.2% -7.8% 0.5%

Italy 4,614 100% -5.6% -5.7% -6.5% -3.7% -6.4%

TEM 1,369 40% -8.2% -8.9% -13.0% -17.8% -18.5%

Vodafone 1,053 31% -10.1% -10.5% -10.7% -11.6% -12.1%

Orange 758 22% 2.8% 3.5% 0.3% -1.2% -2.1%

Yoigo 217 6% 42.8% 24.9% 22.2% 25.4% 3.7%

Spain 3,397 100% -4.9% -5.6% -8.1% -10.5% -12.0%

*Estimate made for June 2012 quarter as not yet reported[Source: Enders Analysis based on company reports]

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Mobile revenue growth and outlook Q2 2012: Growth drops, worse to come [2012-082]

mobile revenue growth and outlook q2 2012 growth drops worse to come 2012082 0

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