mobile: the market, the web and windows phone’s future

http://www.flickr.com/photos/dnorman/3732851541/

Mobile: The Market, The Web and Windows Phone’s Future | Jason Grigsby

http://www.flickr.com/photos/gnt/3850445756/

Twitter:@grigs Tonight:@grigs_talks Slides:bit.ly/grigs_padnug2011

Email: jason@cloudfour.com Web: http://cloudfour.com/blog

Get a lot of email from this guy...http://www.flickr.com/photos/corbett3000/2327165138/in/set-72157604094629546/

Mobile is Disruptive Technology

http://www.flickr.com/photos/talkephotography/4523849236/ Creative Commons BY-NC-SA 2.0

!"

#"

$"

%"

&"

'"

(! ($ (& () (* (!! (!$ (!& (!) (!*

(+,-./-012345/16,+457

2+805-38/-019::;

3<7=4/1>13?=+57 @??1A=5=B=13CB=A/ DE6 @/.05,F/

3<7=4/1>13?=+571G0H1@??1A=5=B=13CB=A/1G0H1DE61G0H1@/.05,F/1I0/-0

J3-0.1#"1(+,-./-012345/16,+457

!"#$%&'()*&+,-+./0-$/+&12#2&3"#&242052-5$&-$6"/$&789%:;<&!$#+.2=$&,+$/+&50>0#$1&#"&?@&"35AB&C"/D23&@#235$A&E$+$2/.F&$+#0>2#$+&G9:CC&3$#-""H+&F24$&+F0==$1&03&60/+#&$0DF#&I,2/#$/+&+03.$&52,3.F JKLMLNOB&@",/.$%&7">=23A&E$="/#+&P&C"/D23&@#235$A&E$+$2/.FB

!"#$%&'()*&+)&*',-*./0&1'2&13*".'()*&+)&*'45".*$")$67")&'8'$9"-07':1&+1';'<='4,>':1&+1'?'@-/+*&+1'4A*&+'>/-)07

!"#$%&'()*%"+*"%

DE6K

G1#H"16,+457/A1*L*%

,&-./"()*%"+*"%

@??1A=5=B=13CB=A/

6,+457/A1'L**

,&-./"()*%"+*"%

3<7=4/1>13?=+57

6,+457/A1'L")

M&)::

M#&::

M)::

!"#$%&'()*%"+*"%

@/.05,F/K

6,+457/A1!#L*%

M!!::

26

Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html

http://www.opera.com/smw/

!"#"""#"""

$"#"""#"""

%"#"""#"""

&"#"""#"""

'""#"""#"""

!""# !""$ !""% !""& !"'"

()*+,-.+/0-12034#!"#$%&'()*)+ 5+*+-*6+74806#!"#$%&'()*)+()*+#,-.+/#01#/)2#9!-:2,,2)7-.+/0-120343#4/)+#5*#61225+7#+5,1*#8!3

()*+#,-.+/#9:1;)#<5.5#*6+7480660;-%"<-=2,,2)7-=0/+:>*04-)8-;+*+?#4/)+#5*#)::;-=3#

'"#+5,1*#+/1#),->.+#-?#2)+)#?->.2#5.#+/1#-.@5.1#A-@@1A+5-.#-?#+/1#B3C3#(5D;);E#-?#F-.G;1**3

H).>);E#!"''I#&"?@#%?#$%,'-.'/)00)1*'23)*4'"#$%&'(15)0$

A72BC0-D.06+-E272-C4064

J;):/5AI#4-,#KE1;,-1.#LL#9:1;)#C-?+0);1

"#$%&'()*)')3'&6&)0&50$'71%'/1%$'89&*':;;;'<)77$%$*8'/15)0$'#91*$'/1<$03

5.2BillionMobile phone for nearly everyoneon the planet.

Flickr photo by Pingnews: http://www.flickr.com/photos/pingnews/370061022/

2007 SMS Revenue: 100 billion

•Box Office•DVD Sales & Rentals•Music Industry•Video Games

CombinedFlickr photo by Vlastula: http://www.flickr.com/photos/vlastula/450642954/

!"#$%&'&()*+)#'",*- ."/'0$*+1"/02&%*3*4",015#02&%6"7*+&89/%2",*:;0"%*.2%*<2(*2%*6"7*+)#'",*.$2'"*=%#58>"%0,*:;0"% ?/'0"1

!"#$%&"'(!"#$%&'()*+,-.

)(&*+$",!"#$%&'()*+/-.

-(*./+012$/(&$(/!"#$%&'()*++-.

!+3#,(12$/(&$(/!"#$%&'()0---.

!#$#!"#$%&'()*+1-.

2345'((36.

2345'((36.

2345'((36.

2345'((36.

!"#$%&'())$*+&,*"-&./01+&#"&./21+&34+$5&")&6"*#7)$&011&*4)8()9+&:*$;$)7$<34+$5=>&5$+8#"?&@)#$*)$#&A())$*+&34+$5&")&A$4B#C&D*$4#$5&,*"-&.//0&#"&*$+?$D#(;$&?$48&-4*8$#&D4?(#4B(E4#(")+F&G"7*D$%&64D#G$#>&6"*#7)$>&H"*94)&G#4)B$I&J$+$4*DCF

7'86"."9&:!'.8":;(&3<:=$$<3:>6?8<3:@7!A3<<:!"#$?B

C"")<3:=>D:3E?F:G?H""I:G?H""I:J?$?(=#?K"(L8"#M3(83(&=<'N?N?E?'O%P?Q%&3(

A')'&?<:@B%'$#3(&A?&?:C3(36?<RSS6'#3!"#$%&36T'.'"(5?():D?N.

;E72!P!"(&6"<:A?&?U$366FR"(3F43<<E%66"%)H.

16

Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html

http://www.flickr.com/photos/76074333@N00/317952268/ | http://futuristmovie.com Creative Commons BY-NC-SA 2.0

ME NEED IPHONE APP.http://www.flickr.com/photos/corbett3000/2327165138/in/set-72157604094629546/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mmcnier/4711157110/

You know the story. You’ve heard it before.

We’ve been here before...

and it wasn’t pretty.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/earlysound/2710970750/ Creative Commons

iPhone Only Part of World Wide Market

3%4%

13%

17%

27%

36%

Android Symbian iPhone RIM WindowsOther

Android 36%, iPhone 17% in Q2 2011http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1689814

U.S. Smartphone Subscribers Feb 2011

http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2011/7/comScore_Reports_May_2011_U.S._Mobile_Subscriber_Market_Share

2%2.4%5.8%

24.7%

26.6%

38.1%

Android iPhone RIM Windows Palm Others

Know Your Demographics

Blackberry has

40%global enterprisemobile market.

Emerging markets

80%of worldwideMMS traffic.

Source: http://bit.ly/dlpGt8

Know Your Geography

Blackberry has

37%Latin America

smartphone market.

Sharp sells

80%of its phones in

Japan, leads market.

Most popular phone for youth in Brazil is Blackberry.Blackberry Messenger is Addictive. Network Effects.

Why compare mobile to the PC market?

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mesq/413104380/sizes/o/

Windows 8 will boost WP7

Help familiarize and validate the Metro UI

Ask Them

Use Mobile Analytics

What are your customers using?

Mobile’s Eight Unique Abilities

http://bit.ly/b3oUtH | http://bit.ly/92TYAR

http://www.flickr.com/photos/fchouse/2829381653/

PERSONAL

63% do not share phone

PERMANENTLY CARRIED

~50% of US admit to sleeping with phone

http://www.flickr.com/photos/kk/3615287378/

ALWAYS ON http://www.flickr.com/photos/gilderic/3517477267/

BUILT-IN PAYMENT CHANNEL

CREATIVE IMPULSE

http://www.flickr.com/photos/d_a_v_i_d_m_/246298437/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/memotions/259656126/

ACCURATE MEASUREMENT

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mythoto/1234638761/SOCIAL CONTEXT

AUGMENTED REALITY

http://issuu.com/mkparsley/docs/ikea

Question Group Think

http://www.flickr.com/photos/fxp/2374147405/sizes/l/

Do Apps Create Platform Lock-in?

If you've bought $200 worth of applications for your smartphone, you're much less likely to switch to a different model in the future.

In short, high spending on smartphone apps ensures long-term platform loyalty.

App Cost

Twitter for iPhone Free

Reeder $2.99

Instapaper $4.99

Facebook Free

1Password $9.99

Total $17.97

Do Apps REALLY Create Platform Lock-in?

Switching Costs are Lower

Are App Stores Essential to a Platform’s Success?

1. Android Has Horrible App Store2. Needs to improve App Store to Compete

3. Oh Wait... Nevermind

http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2011/1/comScore_Reports_November_2010_U.S._Mobile_Subscriber_Market_Share

2%2.8%7.7%

25.2%

28.9%

33.0%

Android RIM iPhone Windows Palm Others

http://www.millennialmedia.com/wp-content/images/mobilemix/MM-MobileMix-Dec2010.pdf

Unlimited Voice, Text and Web for $40/mo.

http://blog.comscore.com/2011/01/verizon_iphone_mobile_market.html

81% of iPhone owners have household incomes greater than the U.S. median household income

The analyst says Cook “appeared to reaffirm the notion that Apple is likely to develop lower priced offerings” to expand the market for the iPhone. Cook said the company is planning “clever things” to address the prepaid market, and that Apple did not want its products to be “just for the rich,” and that the company is “not ceding any market.”

Cheaper iPhone Will Be a Big Deal(I think. Remember I don’t know either!)

http://blogs.forbes.com/ericsavitz/2011/02/28/apple-plots-move-to-expand-iphones-market-share/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/hi-phi/54828371

Native vs Web

Why are we fighting?

http://www.flickr.com/photos/jeff-bauche/2230236391/sizes/o/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/acaben/541334636/

“We have been trying to come up with a solution to let developers write applications, yet keep the iPhone secure and safe. We’ve come up with a sweet solution.”

Web Developers

Mac Developers

Web Developers

Mac DevelopersWeb Developers

Mac Developers

Web Developers

Mac Developers

“That is a bold idea. Very forward

thinking... This is the coming out

party for web apps. We are very

excited about this. These are

exciting times.”

— Jason Fried, 37signals

Web Developers

Mac Developers

“Perhaps it’s playing well in the

mainstream press, but here at WWDC,

Apple’s “you can write great apps for the

iPhone: they’re called ‘web sites’” —

message went over like a lead balloon.

If all you have to offer is a shit sandwich,

just say it. Don’t tell us how lucky we are

and that it’s going to taste delicious.”

— Jon Gruber, Daring Fireball

Web 2.0Web-based Apps

Services & MashupsSoftware as ServiceCloud Computing

iPhone App StoreNative Apps

Few APIs between appsNo Recurring Revenue

Local Storage

Flickr photo by Civisi: http://www.flickr.com/photos/civisi/2611679744/

Surprise Story of 2008

Flickr photo by Drift Words: http://www.flickr.com/photos/44124413076@N01/11846265/

Find a single report that doesn’t showexponential growth for mobile web.

CHALLENGE:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/digobaptista/3270435022/

Native Mobile Apps

vs.

Mobile Web Apps

Mobile is Bigger than Just Apps

Native Mobile Apps

vs.

Mobile Web Apps

A mobile

website

for every

iPhone

app.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/fotoosvanrobin/4932854288/sizes/l/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/pricklebush/224674200/

Let me share our secret for selling mobile web.

Email Gallery Free Email Templates Email Marketing Companies Submit

Advertise Here Advertise Here

Column Type of Email Type of Business Color POPULARITY RESET

Hyundai USA Newsletter 3 Alertful Newsletter 2 Divine Chocolate Newsletter 2

Does your company send email to customers?

http://www.email-gallery.com

Does your company participate in social media?

http://www.flickr.com/photos/intersectionconsulting/5177773774/

Links don’t open apps

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mattimattila/4001221570/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/silipo/378476114/

21%of Google’s largest advertisers

have mobile web sites.

Only

Why?

http://www.flickr.com/photos/nickwheeleroz/2391631937/in/photostream/

BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR MOBILE WEB:Many Sites are Chaos Behind the Scenes

http://www.flickr.com/photos/ionan/103646126/

Multiple Systems Taped Together

Our existing systems are anchors holding us back.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/caffeinehit/186362735/

Native Developers Start from a Clean Slate

http://www.flickr.com/photos/salendron/5569020488/

Content& Services

Car sketch: http://www.flickr.com/photos/cloppy/5081768461/

HTML

HTML

HTML

HTML HTML

HTML

HTMLHTML

NATIVE

NATIVE

NATIVE

Features of New Platforms

Integrated image resizing

Video conversion and resizing

Separation of content from markup so content can be used in native apps

Prioritization of content based on context

Full-featured APIs

Synchronization

New Ways to Enable Content Editors

http://www.flickr.com/photos/expressmonorail/3046970004/sizes/l/

What does WYSIWYG mean to multiple devices?

WYSIWTF

http://www.flickr.com/photos/ndm007/171398958/

http://blog.programmableweb.com/2009/10/13/cope-create-once-publish-everywhere/

http://blog.programmableweb.com/2009/11/11/content-portability-building-an-api-is-not-enough/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/andresthor/3963368371/

Desktop Web Server

Internet

example.com/products/[productID]

Desktop or Mobile

Desktop Web Page

Desktop

Redirect

Mobile

m.example.com/products/[productID]

Cloud Four Mobile Web

Server

Device Class Template A

Device Class Template B

Device Class Template C

Device Class Template D

Internet

Web Services APIs

One Possible Bridging Solution

Mobile WebServer w/ RWD

Platform

Internet

APIs Necessary to Support App Development

http://www.flickr.com/photos/zachklein/54389823/

Something we can all agree on

Mobile Testing SUCKS!

From the beginning, we have wanted to make Angry Birds available for every feasible Android device... We tested the game extensively on a large number of devices, and gathered all the feedback we received from our beta testing to address every possible issue.

So far, we have hesitated to create multiple versions of Angry Birds for the Android platform. But judging by the feedback we have received, we feel that by providing a lightweight solution, we are doing a favour for our fans.

http://www.rovio.com/index.php?mact=Blogs,cntnt01,showentry,0&cntnt01entryid=47&cntnt01returnid=58

Even Most Successful Developers Facethe Challenge of Testing on Enough Devices

ARTICLES TOPICS ABOUT CONTACT CONTRIBUTE FEED

D E C E M B E R 14, 2010

Smartphone Browser Landscapeby P E T E R - P A U L K O C H

Published in: User Interface Design, Mobile, Mobile Design, Mobile Development

Discuss this article » | Share this article »

Users expect websites to work on their mobile phones. In two to three years, mobile support

will become standard for any site. Web developers must add mobile web development to their

skill set or risk losing clients.

How do you make websites mobile compatible? The answer is obvious: By testing them on all

mobile phones, and by solving the problems you encounter. But, that’s a useless answer. It’s

impossible to test your designs on every mobile phone out there. Within the mobile phone

landscape, there are at least ten operating systems (OSs) and fifteen browsers that require

consideration. Mobile devices are expensive, and not every web developer can afford to buy

five to ten of them. Testing “on all mobile phones” is impossible for most web developers.

In this article, I’ll give you an overview of the mobile web market, as well as phone platforms

and their browsers, so that you can decide which mobile devices to test on. Then, we’ll look at

how to set up a mobile test bed.

Search ALA

include discussions

TopicsCode

Content

Culture

Design

Mobile

Process

User Science

SnapshotMost web designers and

developers (not to

mention the entire

blogosphere) fall

squarely in the high-end

market. A cultural bias

exists against OSs aimed

at any other market. As

a result, most people

focus on the struggle

between iOS and

Android, and ignore the

rest. This has to change.

Stay in better touch withcustomers with

No.

320

“Testing on as many devices as possible is a great idea in theory, but in practice it is untenable. Even if we buy a few devices to try to cover more ground, they will be outdated in just a few months or a year at most. So are we supposed to buy multiple devices per year?”posted at 11:32 am on December 14, 2010 by klayon

“If that’s the mobile landscape, I want no part of it.”posted at 07:22 am on December 15, 2010 by Polsonby

http://www.alistapart.com/comments/smartphone-browser-landscape/

Mobile Portland Community Device Lab

• Dedicated location within mobile community in central, downtown Portland.

• Adjacent event space to be used for hosting Mobile Portland events and other user groups. Also available for developer training sessions.

• Free and open to anyone. Run as a non-profit.

• Located in 25,000 sq. ft. building leased by VC-funded mobile start up Urban Airship

• Other tenants in building include mobile developers Cloud Four, Uncorked Studios and Bank Simple.

• We’re creating a central hub for mobile activity in the Portland area. The building is already becoming a magnet for mobile developers.

Building Lobby

Device Lab Glass Office

jason@cloudfour.com | cloudfour.com/blog | @grigs | slides: bit.ly/bit.ly/grigs_padnug2011

http://www.flickr.com/photos/polvero/4232984120/in/faves-grigs/