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South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National Park
Modeling Vegetation SuccessionDynamics to Evaluate Landscape-
Level Response to Everglades Restoration
Steve Friedman, Leonard Pearlstine, Matthew Supernaw
South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National ParkGEER July 12 – 16, 2010
South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National Park
Everglades Landscape Vegetation Succession (ELVeS)
CERP Restoration Planning and Assessment
Temporally Dynamic Wildlife Habitat Layers
Climate and Sea Level Change Scenarios
ISSUES
South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National Park
A: Probability based modeling• Uses mean / standard deviation of hydrological optima
(expert workshops (5) – meetings)
B: Conditional Inference Tree • Uses multivariate data set
Vegetation classificationSoil nutrients - physical propertiesEDEN hydrological metrics
Model Approach
South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National Park
Developed and programmed in Java on a Linux Computer – Runs on all platforms, NVIDIA CUDAand Cloud Computing
Inputs Input.netCDF file, Outputs Community Probabilities
Spreadsheet User Interface
Open Source Software
EDEN400 m
SFWMM Variable Resolution
TIME 500 m
ModScenario modeling based upon varying hydrological metrics and interfacing with sea surface tidal estimation schemes
South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National ParkHydrologic Model Domains
South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National Park
* Current version only considers ridge-slough freshwater marsh communities
Community Common Species
Muhly grass Muhlenbergia capillaris Panicum tenerum Centella asiatica Symphyotrichum bracei Pluchea rosea Rhynchospora microcarpa Solidago stricta Cassytha filiformis Schizachyrium rhizomatum Cladium jamaicensePolygala grandiflora
Sawgrass Cladium jamaicense
Wet Prairie Eleocharis cellulosa Bacopa caroliniana Rhynchospora tracyi Panicum hemitomon Sagittaria lancifolia
Open Water - Lily Slough Nymphaea,Utricularia
Cattail Typha domingensis Polygonum hydropiperoides Salix caroliniana
Wetland Communities
Alpha Version 1.0Hydrology Dynamics1) EDEN, SFWMM, TIME, RSM2) CERP Scenarios
Phosphorus DynamicsInitial beta model based on static P levels
Alternatives for Phosphorus1) Examining TaRSE model for
integration (Jawitz et. al. 2008) –a spatially explicit dynamic model
2) Nutrient gradient scenarios
Hydro.ncNutrient.nc
Hydrological and Nutrient Preprocessors
Fires
Storms
Calculate Instantaneous Probabilities
Sorted Ranked Probabilities
TimeStep
Veg_Out.nc
Temporal Lags
Future Components
VisualizationsR – StatsDSS
South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National ParkThe Model
Normal Curve Definitions
Logistic Curve Definitions
South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National ParkUser Interface
Annual Water Depth
Community Temporal Probabilities
&Collective Assessment
South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National ParkSolutions
Improving data parameterization
EDEN Hydrological
MetricsVegetation
Dry Periods
WetPeriods
Veg – Water-Nutrient
Unpublished Soil survey data provided by Newman and Osborne
South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National ParkNew Approach
Tota
l Pho
spho
rus
Seve
n D
ay D
ry F
requ
ency
Mea
n A
nnua
l Wat
er D
epth
Wet
Per
iod
South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National Park
Exploratory Data Analysis
Veg Communities Veg Communities Veg Communities
South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National Park
Advantage: Eliminates over fitting problem and selection bias of covariates with multiple splits as implemented in Random Forest methods. Algorithm splits covariate selection and splitting criterion into 2 steps
Approach: Recursive Binary Partitioning1) Global null hypothesis of independence between any covariate and response2) Two disjoint sets (left and right branches) are identified defined as the splitting
criteria3) Recursively repeat steps a 1 and 2 until a final terminal node is reached
Solution is reached when the global null hypothesis cannot be rejected using a specified conditional nominal alpha level 0.95 at each node
Conditional Inference Trees
12 3
4
5 6 7
8
9 10
11
12 14
Hothorn, Hornik & Zeileis. 2006. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 15: 651 - 674
Graphical display identifies each binary decision, hypothesis probability scores, parameter splitting value, and terminal node probability scores
South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National ParkELVeS Ctree Model
South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National Park
South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National ParkTree Branch Composition
South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National Park
Community ClassificationTerminal Node Classification
Community Similarity Analysis
N
Cattail - Slough
Cattail - Slough
Cattail – Slough Sawgrass Ridge
Cattail –Sawgrass Ridge - Slough
Cattail –Sawgrass Ridge
Cattail - Cypress MarshSawgrass Ridge
Cattail - Tree Island
Tree Island - Cattail
Tree Island – Slough
Tree Island – Sawgrass Plain
Sawgrass Ridge - Slough
Sawgrass Plain Cattails
Sawgrass Ridge – Wet Prairie
Slough Sawgrass Ridge
Sawgrass Plain Slough
Sawgrass Plain Slough Sawgrass Ridge Slough
Sawgrass Ridge Slough Sawgrass Ridge Wet Prairie Marl Prairie
Wet Prairie
Wet Prairie Marl Prairie
Wet Prairie Sawgrass Ridge
Wet Prairie Marl Prairie
Wet Prairie Cypress Marsh
Wet Prairie Tree Island Wet Prairie
Tree Island
Cypress MarshWet Prairie
Wet Prairie Sawgrass Ridge
South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National ParkMultidimensional Scaling
South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National ParkSuspensefull
Conversion of probabilities to mapping formatWe’re still working on that can’t give away all of the
conclusions at the same time
Model Refinement (mangroves, saline prairies, sea grasses, pine lands,
hammock communities)
Validation – REMap Soil Vegetation Survey
Integration of Temporal Lags Feedback
Fire and Hurricanes
Michael Ross Florida International UniversityJay Sah Florida International UniversityDan Childers Florida International UniversityJennifer Richards Florida International UniversityDaniel Gann Florida International UniversityTom Givnish University of WisconsinJimi Sadle Everglades National ParkJohn Volin University of Connecticut Sue Newman South Florida Water Management DistrictScott Hagerthey South Florida Water Management DistrictVic Engle South Florida Natural Resource Center – ENPJordan Barr South Florida Natural Resource Center – ENPTodd Osborne University of Florida
South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National ParkWorkshops and Support
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