mohammad jalal abbasi-shavazi - refugee crises one generation later

Refugee crises one generation later: What lessons could Europe learn from Iran?

Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi, University of Tehran, National Institute of Population Research (NIPR), and Australian National University

Rasoul Sadeghi, University of Tehran and NIPR

Migration, Citizenship and Demography:

Conference on Demography

4–5 February 2016

European University Institute, Florence, Italy

University of Tehran

Overview� Introduction: Recent irregular

movements

� Iran’s experiences on refugee management

� Migration background of Afghans in Iran

� Adaptation patterns

� Return strategies and intentions

� Lessons learned and policy options

Ref: Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, 2015

Changes of IDP figures over the last decade

Ref: UNHCR 2014

Major refugee-hosting countries, mid-2014

UNHCR (2015). UNHCR Mid-Year Trends 2014. stats@unhcr.org

Irregular Migration in the Mediterranean: In April, 2015, a ship carrying hundreds of refugees trying to reach Europe

Source: http://natocouncil.ca/forced-migration-in-the-mediterranean-and-international-law/

Migrants after a rescue operation by the Italian navy off the coast of Sicily. Photograph: Handout/REUTERS, The

Guardian, Wednesday 9 April 2014.

Irregular Migration Routs to Europe

2015

8

https://www.hrw.org/report/2015/06/19/mediterranean-migration-crisis/why-people-flee-what-eu-should-do

9

Lessons learned from the past?

� Trend of refugee migration to Iran?

� Migration background and adaptation patterns of Afghan refugees in Iran?

� What lessons can Europe learn from Iran?

Afghans in Iran: Historical Background

o Before 1979: Labor force migration

o 1979-1989: Soviet invasion of Afghanistan; first massive refugee influx

o 1990-1993: First repatriation program

o 1994-2001: Civil war and advent of the Taliban; second massive refugee influx

o After 2001: Second repatriation program

o 2004 onward: New phase of labor force migration

The number (million) of Afghan Immigrants in Iran

0.6

0.8

2.0

3.0

1.41.5

1.2

1.4

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

~1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

Source: Various censuses

Number and share of other nationalities in Iran, 2006 and 2011

Nationality 2006 2011

Afghanistan 92.8 93.8

Iraq 3.4 3.3

Pakistan 1.2 1.1

Other 2.6 1.8

Total 100.0 100.0

Number 1,304,016 1,547,679

Ref: Sadeghi and Abbasi-Shavazi, 2015

Estimated number of Afghans in Iran

Type Number

Refugees ~ 950,000

Labour migrants ~ 500,000

Undocumented (Irregular/illegal migrants, over stayers)

~ 1000,000

Total ~ 2,500,000

80000 60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000

0- 4

5- 9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

Numbers

2nd generation(Green color) & 1st generation Afghans in Iran, 2006

Males Females

Ref: Hugo, Abbasi and Sadeghi et al. 2012

Comparison of Age structure of Native Population (shaded) vs Foreign Nationalities in Iran, 2011

8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8

0- 4

5- 9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

Percentages

Iran 1390 (shaded) & Migrants 1390

Males Females

Population Composition of Afghans in Iran, 2006 Census

Urban

71%

Rural

27 %

Refugee

Camps

2.1 %

Residence area

Hazara47%

Tajik

30%

Pashtun

13%

Others

10%

Ethnicity

Foreign

born (Afghanistan)

51.2%

Native-born

(Iran)48.8%

Birth place

Geographical distribution of Afghans in Iran, 2011 Census

To what extent Afghans have been adapted to the

Iranian society?

Adaptation: Measurement & Analytical Approaches

Structural approach

(Native-immigrant comparisons)

Intergenerationalapproach

(Intergenerational comparisons)

Attitude-behavioralapproach

(Intra-generational comparisons)

Social

Demographic

Iran: Literacy Status of First and Second Generation Afghan Migrants Compared with Iranians, 2006Source: Based on the Iranian 2006 census

Ref: Hugo, Abbasi and Sadeghi et al. 2012

Iran: Labour Force Participation of First and Second Generations of Afghans Compared With Iranians, 2006 Iran Census

Ref: Hugo, Abbasi and Sadeghi et al. 2012

Total Fertility Rate Trends in Muslim-majority countries, 1960-2010

Source: Based on UN, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp

Fertility (TFRs): Afghan Women in Afghanistan and Iran as Compared with Iranian Women, 1992-2006

7.06.9 6.9 6.8

6.7

Afghanistan

3.6

2.7

2.22.0

1.8

Iranians

6.7

5.3

5.0

4.1

3.6

Afghans in Iran

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

1992-1994 1995-1997 1998-2000 2001-2003 2004-2006

Ref: Abbasi-Shavazi et al. 2015

Average children ever born (CEB) of Iranians and Afghan women, 15-49 yrs old, 2006

4.08 4.134.01

3.27 3.15

3.46

2.612.42

2.85

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Total Urban Rural

CE

B

1st generation 2nd generation Iranian women

* Adjusted for Age Ref: Abbasi-Shavazi et al. 2015

Mean of CEB among Iranian and Afghan women by Education Levels, 2006

3.65

2.72

2.38

2.02

1.55

3.73

3.01

2.63

2.11

1.57

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Illiterate Elementary Secondary High school &

Diploma

Higher

education

CEB

Iranian women

Afghan women

Ref: Abbasi-Shavazi et al. 2015

Educational mobility among Afghans in Iran: 1st and 2nd generations by gender, 2011

Ref: Hugo, Abbasi and Sadeghi et al. 2012

Occupational mobility among Afghans in Iran: 1st and 2nd generations by gender, 2011

Ref: Hugo, Abbasi and Sadeghi et al. 2012

Structural adaptation of Afghan youth in Iran

� Afghan migrants in Iran had a better socio-economic situation as compared with their counterparts in Afghanistan

� Unbalanced integration (education, health vs. occupation and housing)

� Intergenerational adaptation: the 2nd generation had a better situation and were more integrated into the Iran society

Attitude-behavioral Adaptation: Using Berry’s two-dimensional framework

Acceptance and attachment to the host society M

ain

tain

an

d a

ttach

men

t to

o

rig

in s

ocie

ty &

mig

ran

t co

mm

un

ity

High Low

High Integration Separation

Low Assimilation Marginalization

Source: Berry 1992, 2006.

DATA

� The 2010 Afghans Adaptation Survey

� Conducted in Tehran and Mashhad

� Target population: Afghan Youth aged 15-29.

� Sample size: 620

� The sampling scheme: based on the socio-demographic composition and the geography of settlement of Afghan immigrants.

� Structured questionnaire for data collection

Identity

Identity and sense of belonging

Iranian

20.7 %

Afghan

41.5 %

Dual

26.5 %

Marginal

11.3 %

Identity

If you can choose your nationality/ citizenship which one would you choose?

Nationality

& Citizenship

Iranian

35.0 %

Afghan

32.7 %

Neither

12.9 %

Both

19.4 %

The Patterns of Attitude -behavioral Adaptation among Afghan Youth in Iran, 2010

14.8

%

33.7

%

39.4

%

12.1

%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Assimilated Integrated Seperated Marginalized

The Patterns of Attitude -behavioral Adaptation among 1st & 2nd generation Afghan Youth in Iran, 2010

(2nd N= 520 & 1st N=100)

17.1 %

35.8 %33.3 %

13.8 %

3.0 %

23.0 %

71.0 %

3.0 %0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Assimilated Integrated Seperated Marginalized

2nd generation 1st generation

13.6

53.3

25.5

7.6

15.9

34.6

36.9

12.514.2

31.2

37.6

17

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

A S I M

Illiterate/ primary Secondary/ high school University education

Adaptation Patterns of Afghan Youth by Educational levels

Adaptation Patterns and

Return Aspirations/ Intentions

Return Intentions of Afghan Youth, 2010

Intentions (%) Stayingin Iran

Return toAfghanistan

Planning togo othercountries

Undecided/ dilemma

Current intention about staying in Iran or returning to Afghanistan

60.8 6.6 8.4 24.1

Plan on staying in Iran or returning to Afghanistan in near future (next 2 years) 31.6 10.6 14.4* 43.4

Intention to migrate from Iran to other countries (except Afghanistan)

Yes No Uncertain

20.2 77.1 2.7

*Including; Australia (n=21), Canada (n=13), USA (n=8), Germany (n=6), England (n=5), Sweden (n=5), Other European countries (n=22), Not certain (n=9).

Adaptation and interest in staying in Iran

2.27.2

16.0 18.716.312.0

27.9

29.3

22.8

46.4

37.740.058.7

34.4

18.412.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Assimilated Integrated Seperated Marginalized

Not at all A little Rather Very

Chi-square= 91.573 Sig= 0.001

Adaptation and interest in returning to Afghanistan

53.3

12.07.4

28.0

27.2

25.4

13.9

28.0

12.0

37.3

26.2

30.7

7.5

25.3

52.5

13.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Assimilated Integrated Seperated Marginalized

Not at all A little Rather Very

Chi-square= 172.316 Sig= 0.001

Adaptation and interest in migration to other countries

34.8

22.027.1

5.3

8.7

8.1

14.3

2.7

16.3

15.3

16.0

10.7

40.254.6

42.6

81.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Assimilated Integrated Seperated Marginalized

Not at all A little Rather Very

Chi-square= 46.948 Sig= 0.001

Adaptation and preferred country to grow up children…

62.0

21.5 21.3 17.3

3.3

9.6

33.6

5.3

27.1

19.6

16.0

62.7

7.6

49.3

29.1

14.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Assimilated Integrated Seperated Marginalized

Iran Afghanistan Other countries I don't know

Chi-square= 209.636 Sig= 0.001

Conclusion: adaptation and mobility

� Second-generation Afghans in Iran have experienced a variety of adaptation patterns and orientations.

� Fertility and family behavior of Afghans have changed towards the host society.

� Attitudes and behavior of the second generation Afghans is more closer to their Iranian counterpart than the first generation.

� The SG Afghans experienced educational -but not occupational - upward mobility.

Summary: Adaptation and return

� A clear majority of second-generation Afghan in Iran did not intend to return to Afghanistan in the short and medium term.

� Assimilated SG Afghans are interested in staying in Iran

� Those in the separated category were more likely to be willing or intending to return to Afghanistan as compared with those in other categories.

� Integrated immigrants have simultaneous attachments to the host society and the homeland. This ambiguity and uncertainty is reflected in the undecided responses toward return aspirations and intentions.

� Marginalized SG Afghans were more willing to migrate to other countries.

Repatriation has slowed down

� More than 5 million Afghans have been repatriated from Pakistan and Iran but the repatriation process has been slow since 2010.

� Boarder control policies may NOT be so effective as long as there is a gap in socio-economic situation between the home and host societies.

� Reintegration of returnees in Afghanistan has implications for future irregular migration

� Those who are repatriated but not reintegrated will communicate and send a message back to their families and friends to stay at host country.

� Women are less intended to return to Afghanistan.

� SOLUTION? Rebuilding Afghanistan may motivate potential migrants to stay in-, and encourage migrants to return to their homeland.

Policies on potential refugees and irregular migrants

� Negotiations for peace process in the Middle East has to be coordinated successfully in order to stop the trend of forced/irregular migration to Europe and neighbouring countries

� Restructuring the countries experiencing conflict (Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen…) would prevent further irregular migration

� Repatriation: Although repatriation of migrants would take time and is a slow process, policies should encourage the educated second-generation Afghans who can build Afghanistan to return to their homeland. This cannot be done without the coordination of the Afghanistan government.

� Afghans are an adaptable group of migrants, and thus, integration is the best strategy for those who remain in EU.

Selected References� Abbasi-Shavazi, M.J. Hugo, G., Sadeghi, R. and Mahmoudian, H.,

2015, Immigrant-native fertility differentials: The Afghans in Iran, Asian and Pacific Migration Journal, Vol. 24(3) 273–297. DOI: 10.1177/0117196815594718

� Abbasi-Shavazi, M.J. and Sadeghi, R. 2014, Socio-cultural Adaptation of Second-generation Afghans in Iran, International Migration Online version is available at doi: 10.1111/imig.12148

� Abbasi-Shavazi, MJ., Sadeghi, R., Mahmoudian, H., and Jamshidiha, G., 2012 Marriage and Family Formation of the Second-generation Afghans in Iran: Insight from a qualitative survey, International Migration Review, 46 (4):828–860. DOI: 10.1111/imre.12002

� Abbasi-Shavazi, MJ., Glazebrook, D., Jamshidiha, G., Mahmoudian, H., & R. Sadeghi, 2008, Second Generation Afghans in Iran: Integration, Identity and Return, Afghanistan and Research Evaluation Research (AREU), Kabul.

� Hugo, G., Abbasi-Shavazi, M. J., and Sadeghi, R. 2012, Refugee Movement and Development: Afghan Refugees in Iran, Migration and Development, 1 (2): 261–279.

Thank you

Jalal.Abbasi@anu.edu.au