monetary policy report february 2011
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Monetary Policy Report
February 2011
Balance in the economy requires continued repo rate increases
Good growth in Sweden ahead
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankGDP, quarterly changes in per cent calculated as an annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Mean 2000-2010
Recovery abroad
Sources: The IMF and the Riksbank
GDP, annual percentage change. IMF’s October forecast for Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC)
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Euro area
USA
BRIC
World
Forward-looking indicators point to high growth
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Sweden
Euro area
USA
BRIC
Sources: Institute for Supply Management, Markit Economics and
Swedbank
Purchasing managers’ index in the manufacturing industry, BRIC =Brazil, Russia, India and China
Lower Swedish unemployment
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Unemployment, 15-74 years
February
December
Source: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankPercentage of labour force, seasonally-adjusted data
Strong recruitment plans
Net figures total resp. annual percentage change
Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Recruitment plans according to NIER’s quarterly business tendency survey (left scale)
Number of employed according to National Accounts (rights scale)
Labour shortages increasing
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Manufacturing industry
Construction sector
Retail trade
Private sector industries
Source: National Institute of Economic ResearchPer cent, seasonally-adjusted data
Stronger Swedish krona
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Outcome
February
December
Source: The RiksbankIndex, 18 November 1992 = 100
Higher commodity and energy prices
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Metals
Other agricultural products
Food
Crude Oil
Sources: The Economist and ReutersUSD, Index 2005=100
Inflation higher than expected
Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CPIF February
CPIF December
CPIF excluding energy, February
Inflation close to target
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankAnnual percentage change
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CPIF
CPI
Repo rate increased slightly faster
Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
December
February
A forecast, not a promise
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
90%75%50%OutcomeForecast
Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank
Domestic demand/Commodity prices
Stronger productivity/Exchange rate
Balance in the economy requires continued repo rate increases
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