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MONITORING OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
PERFORMANCE
PROGRESS UPDATE FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER 2016/17
ISSUE 9
MARCH 2017
2
Contents
Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations .................................................................... 3
1. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND ........................................................................................ 6
2. STATUS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS ....................................................................... 9
3. PLANT PERFORMANCE ............................................................................................................. 13
3.1 Daily energy production of solar and wind energy power plants ............................ 13
3.2 Monthly Energy Production ................................................................................... 16
3.3 Load factors of Renewable Energy Power Plants ................................................. 18
4. CONCLUDING REMARKS ........................................................................................................... 19
ANNEXURE A: GEOGRAPHICAL MAPS OF IPP RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS ................. 20
ANNEXURE B: NEW RENEWABLE ENERGY POWER PLANT ADDITIONS .................................. 23
3
Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations
GLOSSARY
BID WINDOW
Means any of the procurement phases under the Renewable Energy Independent
Power Producer Procurement Programme of the Department of Energy.
ENERGY REGULATOR
Means the regulatory authority established as a juristic person in terms of Section 3 of
the National Energy Regulator Act, 2004 (Act No. 40 of 2004).
GOVERNMENT
Means the Government of the Republic of South Africa, and any of its departments,
agencies or other entities that it manages or controls.
GIGAWATT HOUR
Energy unit in which electricity consumption is measured. 1GWh = 1000MWh.
INDEPENDENT POWER PRODUCER (IPP)
IPPs are defined as typically limited-liability, investor-owned enterprises that generate
electricity either for bulk sale to an electric utility or for retail sale to industrial or other
customers with certain conditions.
LOAD FACTOR
Means the ratio of the power plant output over a period of time, to its potential output if
it were possible for it to operate at full nameplate capacity continuously over the same
period of time.
MEGAWATT HOUR
Energy unit in which electricity consumption is measured. 1MWh = 1000kWh.
4
MINISTER
Means Minister of Energy
RENEWABLE ENERGY (from the 2003 White Paper on Renewable Energy)
Renewable energy harnesses naturally occurring non-depletable sources of energy,
such as solar, wind, biomass, hydro, tidal, wave, ocean current and geothermal, to
produce electricity, gaseous and liquid fuels, heat or a combination of these energy
types.
5
ABBREVIATIONS
BW Bid Window
COD Commercial Operation Date
CSIR Council of Scientific and Industrial Research
CSP Concentrated Solar Power
DoE Department of Energy
IPP `. Independent Power Producer
IRP Integrated Resource Plan
LF Load Factor
MW Megawatt
MWh Megawatt hour
GWh Gigawatt hour
NERSA National Energy Regulator
PPA Purchase Power Agreement
PV Photovoltaic
RE Renewable Energy
REIPPP Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer
Programme
RfP Request for Proposal
6
1. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND
Renewable energy in the South African Electricity Supply Industry (ESI) is mainly driven
by the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme
(REIPPPP) of the Department of Energy. The programme was formulated in 2011 in
order to contribute to meeting the national renewable energy targets while encouraging
foreign investment and developing socio-economic and environmentally sustainable
growth. The targets are based on the promulgated Integrated Resource Plan (IRP)
2010-2030 of South Africa.
The National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) supports Government's
Renewable Energy (RE) plans set out in the Integrated Resource Plan 2010-2030
(IRP2010-2030). In order to implement the plan, the Minister has so far made four
Determinations under the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Programme
(REIPPP) of the Department of Energy (DoE). In the first Independent Power Producer
(IPP) Determination, issued in 2011 ('the IPP Determination 2011'), a target of 3 825MW
of RE was set. In the second IPP Determination, ('the IPP Determination 2012), 3
455MW of RE capacity will be procured until 2020.
In the third IPP Determination, ('the IPP Determination 2015'), a procurement of
renewable energy capacity of 6 300MW is envisaged for the period 2021- 2025, in
accordance with the promulgated IRP2010-2030. In total, the renewable energy
capacity to be procured by 2025 is estimated at 13 580MW. In November 2015, the
Minister issued a fourth Determination, (‘the Renewable Energy (Solar) Procurement
Programme 2015’). The Solar Procurement Programme proposes 1 500MW of capacity
to be procured from Solar PV or any other solar technology. Table 1 lists all four
Ministerial Determinations for RE together with the capacity allocation per technology.
Four RE IPPP bid windows, including a mini-bid window of Concentrated Solar Power
(CSP) projects (termed 'Window 3.5'), have been concluded successfully by the
Department of Energy (DoE). According to DoE, the total investment of RE IPP projects
amounts to R192.6 billion and approximately R53.9 billion of that is from foreign
7
investment1. Table 2 below shows the breakdown of capacity allocation per technology
for each bid window. Figure 1 shows the allocation of Bid Window (BW) capacity for
various provinces.
Table 1: Ministerial Determinations for Renewable Energy Performance.
Table 2: Capacity allocation per technology for each Bid Window (BW).
1 Presentation by DoE (23 August 2016), BRIEFING ON THE SOUTH AFRICAN INDEPENDENT POWER PRODUCERS
PROCUREMENT PROGRAMME.
IPP
Procurement
Programme
2011
IPP
Procurement
Programme
2012
IPP Procurement
Programme 2015
IPP
Procurement
Solar 2015
Total to date
Onshore Wind 1 850 1 600 3 040 6 490
Solar PV 1 450 1 200 2 200 4 850*
CSP 200 400 600 1 200*
Biomass 12.5 47.5 150 210
Biogas 12.5 47.5 50 110
Landfill Gas 25 25
Small hydro 75 60 60 195
Small Projects 100 100 200 400
Total Allocation 3 725 3 455 6 300 1 500 14 980
** According to the Ministerial Solar Determination 2015, 1 500MW will be for solar technologies i.e. CSP and Solar PV.
Technology
Ministerial Determinations for Renewable Energy, MW
1 500**
* IPP Solar Procurement 2015 not included.
BW 1 BW2 BW 3 BW 3.5 BW 4
MW MW MW MW MW
Onshore wind 649 559 787 1 362 3 357
Solar PV 627 417 435 813 2 292
CSP 150 50 200 200 600
Small hydro 14 5 19
Landfill gas 18 18
Biomass 17 25 42
Biogas
Total 1426 1040 1457 200 2205 6 328
Total RETechnology
8
Figure 1: RE IPP provincial capacity from Bid Windows 1, 2, 3, 3.5 and 4.
On 26 May 2014, the DoE released the Request for Proposal (RfP) for the fourth bid
window. A total of 77 bids amounting to 5 804MW were received against the available
capacity allocation of 1 105MW. Preferred bidders were announced in two groups. The
first group of 13 preferred bidders were announced on 10 April 2015, while the second
group of 13 preferred bidders were announced on 07 June 2015. Annexure A shows
the location of projects from all four RE IPP bid windows.
In terms of section 4 of the Electricity Regulation Act 2006 (Act No.4 of 2006) ('the Act'),
NERSA has a mandate to 'establish and manage monitoring and information systems
and co-ordinate the integration thereof with other relevant information systems'. The
Renewable Energy (RE) Independent Power Producers (IPPs) are required to submit
reports on their monthly energy production, pursuant to section 15 of Grid Connection
Code for Renewable energy version 2.8 of 2015. The report covers the status of RE
IPP projects and update on performance of the power plants during 2016.
9
2. STATUS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS
There is a concern from the IPPs about reaching financial close of awarded Power
Purchase Agreements of RE IPP projects due to power utility’s concern of risk
associated with prices of some the RE IPP projects. IPPs have argued that prices of
subsequent BWs are much lower that the first BW, and therefore, the utility’s concern
about costs is not valid. A recent article also reported that delays in signing of RE IPP
contracts could have an impact on the development of local manufacturing industry for
some RE technologies such as wind2. Despite these concerns raised by the industry
players, additional RE power plants have reached commercial operation in the last
quarter of 2016. Figure 2 shows new capacity addition from February 2016 to December
2016. As of 31 January 2017, the total grid-connected capacity of RE IPPs is 3 181MW.
Out of this grid-connected capacity, about 2 906MW is in commercial operation.
Figure 2: Total commercial capacity as of 31 January 2017.
Table 3 overleaf shows a list of all REIPPP projects in commercial operation on 31
January 2016. The projects in commercial operation are from BW1, BW2 and BW3 of
REIPPP. The projects highlighted in blue reached commercial operation in the last five
months of the 2016. The aerial photos of the new RE power plants that were recently
added to the grid are shown in ANNEXURE B
2 http://www.energy.org.za/news/eskom-delays-threaten-local-wind-tower-factory, accessed on 13 February 2017.
10
Table 3: REIPPP projects that achieved COD as of 31 January 2017.
11
The monthly cumulative capacity of the RE IPPs in commercial operation is shown in
Figure 3 below. Also shown in the figure is the monthly incremental capacity of
renewable energy power plants since 2013. A capacity of 1 515MW was commissioned
in 2014, another 500MW in 2015 and 884MW in 2016.
Figure 3: Monthly Cumulative commercial capacity of REIPP projects on 31 January 2017.
Figure 4 shows the total RE capacity in commercial operation from inception of REIPP
programme to date. The commercial capacity of wind and solar PV technologies is 1
360MW and 1 329MW, respectively. The CSP capacity in commercial operation is
200MW, while small-hydro is just over 14MW.
12
Figure 4: Commercial capacity of various technologies on 31 January 2017.
Figure 5 below shows the commercial capacity of RE power plants for each province in
South Africa. The Northern Cape has the highest RE capacity in the country due to high
solar energy resource in that province, while the Western and Eastern Cape provinces
follow with RE capacity mainly from wind farms.
Figure 5: Commercial Capacity of renewable energy IPP power plants per province on 31 January 2017.
Contracted: 1 509MW
In operation: 958MW
Contracted: 3565MW
In operation: 1 179MW
Contracted: 592MW
In operation: 509MW
Contracted: 204MW
In operation: 128MW
Contracted: 275MW
In operation: 7MW
Contracted: 17MW
In operation: 0MW
Contracted: 118MW
In operation: 58MW
Contracted: 30MW
In operation 0MW
Contracted: 18MW
In operation: 3MW
13
3. PLANT PERFORMANCE
3.1 Daily energy production of solar and wind energy power plants
The analysis of hourly renewable energy plant performance is based on a sample of
plants that provided timely information to NERSA (see list in Table 5). For the analysis,
solar PV and wind power plants have been selected because of their intermittency. The
total contracted capacity of the analysed sample solar PV and Wind power plants is
approximately 1 440MW.
Table 5: IPP data sources for hourly energy.
Solar PV Power Plants (807MW) Wind Power Plants (633MW)
Mulilo De Aar IPPID 064 Dassieklip IPPID 123
Slimsun Swartland IPPID 164 Dorper IPPID 159
Prieska IPPID 65 West Coast 1 IPPID 309
Dreunberg IPPID 527 Nobelsfontein IPPID 128
Linde IPPID 523 Jeffreys Bay IPPID 182
Kalkbult IPPID 159 Grassridge IPPID 364
Reisa Kathu IPPID 444 Metro Wind van Stadens IPPID 138
Solar Capital De Aar IPPID 564 Chaba IPPID327
Solar Capital De Aar IPPID 168 Waainek IPPID362
Letsatsi IPPID 031
Lesedi IPPID 032
Herbert IPPID 696
Greefspan IPPID 443
Jasper Solar IPPID 562
Rusmo1 IPPID 155
Droogfontein IPPID 572
Solar De Aar IPPID 182
Aries Solar IPPID 163
Konkoosies Solar IPPID 128
Vredendal Solar IPPID 375
Upington Solar IPPID 764
Figure 6 shows the average daily energy production of selected wind and solar PV
power plants during winter and summer months, July 2016 and December 2016. The
data represented on the plot is for power plants listed in Table 5. The power plants are
14
comprised of nine wind farms with total installed capacity of 633MW and twenty one
solar PV plants with total installed capacity of 807MW. From the plot it can be seen that
in July (winter month), PV plants produce less energy than in December (summer
month) due to low sunlight intensity and shorter sun-hours. In summer there is more
sunshine hours in a day and intensity is higher compared to winter. Another
observation from Figure 6 is that average wind energy profile in July 2016 was relatively
constant throughout the day. In contrast to wind energy profile of July 2016, the energy
profile for December 2016 has a peak during early evening hours.
Figure 6: Seasonal variation of wind and solar PV energy production in 2016.
Figure 7 and Figure 8 show the hourly energy profiles of the sample of RE power plants
(listed in Table 5), for July 2016 and December 2016, respectively. The selected solar
PV and wind power plants produced almost the same amount of combined energy for
July (~319GWh) and December (~323GWh). In both plots, it is evident that wind power
contributed during night hours, when solar energy was not available i.e. horizontal
overlap of the green plot.
15
Figure 7: Energy production profile of Wind and Solar PV in July 2016.
Figure 8: Energy production profile of Wind and Solar PV in December 2016.
16
3.2 Monthly Energy Production
Figure 9 shows the cumulative monthly energy production of RE IPP power plants for
the period September 2013 to December 2016. The data represents monthly total
energy of power plants that submitted data to NERSA (i.e. 52 power plants at the time
of finalising this report). In 2016, about 6 445GWh of energy was generated by REIPPP
power plants. The energy produced in 2016 is nearly fifty percent (50%) more than the
RE IPP energy produced in 2015, which was about 4 400GWh. This demonstrates
success of REIPPP programme in the past three years. Figure 10 shows the share of
RE technology in the total energy produced in 2016. Wind technology produced nearly
54% of the renewable energy, followed by solar PV with 36%. Figure 11 shows the
cumulative RE IPP energy production since 2013. The cumulative energy produced till
31 December 2016 is roughly 13 090GWh.
Figure 9: Cumulative RE IPP monthly energy production over the past four years. Data sourced from RE IPPs.
17
Figure10: Renewable energy IPP technology contribution in 2016. Data sourced from RE IPPs.
Figure 11: Cumulative RE IPP monthly energy production over the past four years. Data sourced from RE
IPPs.
Table 5 lists the total energy production of various RE technologies from 2013 till June
2016. The energy represents only RE IPPs in full commercial operation i.e. some power
plants could not report energy production data during their early operation period. In
2016, solar PV and wind power plants produced approximately, 2 347GWh and
18
3 477GWh, respectively. Furthermore, the average monthly energy contribution of RE
IPP power plants for 2016 was more than 500GWh. Compared to 2015, the total annual
energy has increased by nearly 47%. This is attributed to new RE power plant additions
to the power grid.
Table 5: Recorded annual energy production figures for various RE technologies. The table represents energy production data submitted by IPPs.
Technology 2013 2014 2015 2016
GWh GWh GWh GWh
Solar PV 64 1 183 2 185 2 347
Wind 3 1 006 1 985 3 477
CSP 188 590
Hydro 34 31
Total Energy 67 2 189 4 392 6 445
Table 6 shows the comparison of expected energy production with actual energy
produced by wind and solar PV power plants of Bid windows 1 and 2. It is evident from
the table that the RE IPP power plants are performing as expected.
Table 6: Comparison of expected energy with actual energy production of RE IPPs.
Solar PV 2016
Expected Energy - P50 (GWh) Actual Energy (GWh)
BW1 1 370 1 378
BW2 818 840
Wind 2016
Expected Energy - P50 (GWh) Actual Energy (GWh)
BW1 1 907 1 889
BW2 944 1 011
3.3 Load factors of Renewable Energy Power Plants
The Load Factors (LFs) achieved by solar and PV power plants are shown in Figure 7
for various provinces. Renewable Energy Data and Information Service (REDIS)3 of the
DoE was used as a source for the LFs.
3 Department of Energy (DoE) - Renewable Energy Data and Information Service (REDIS), Available online:
http://redis.energy.gov.za/, Last accessed 20 February 2017.
19
During 2016, the average LFs of solar PV power plants in the Northern Cape and
Western Cape were approximately 26% and 23%, respectively. The average wind
energy LFs in 2016 varied from nearly 34% in the Western Cape to approximately 36%
in the Eastern Cape. In general, 2016 LFs are slightly higher than those achieved in
2015. The average load factors of CSP and small-hydro power plant are not presented
in this report due to few operating power plants for these technologies.
Figure 7: Annual Load Factors of solar PV and Wind power plants in different provinces. Data sourced from Department of Energy (DoE) - Renewable Energy Data and Information Service (REDIS).
4. CONCLUDING REMARKS
A total of 54 RE IPP power plants are in commercial operation. As of 31 January 2017,
the total installed capacity on the grid was 3 181MW. Out of this installed capacity,
nearly 2 906MW is in commercial operation. The submitted energy production data
from IPPs for 2016 indicates that the RE power plants produced nearly 6 445GWh. The
average load factor of wind technology is above 33% for East Cape and Western Cape
provinces. The average load factors for solar PV ranged from 23%, in provinces with
low solar radiation, to 26% in the Northern Cape, where there is plenty of solar energy
resource.
20
ANNEXURE A: GEOGRAPHICAL MAPS OF IPP RENEWABLE ENERGY
PROJECTS
Source: http://energy.org.za
Figure A1: Western Cape RE IPPs. Courtesy of Stephen Forder.
21
Source: http://energy.org.za
Figure A2: RE IPP plants in the Eastern Cape. Courtesy of Stephen Forder.
22
Source: http://energy.org.za
Figure A3: RE IPP plants in John Taolo and ZF Mgcawu District Municipalities in Northern Cape.
23
ANNEXURE B: NEW RENEWABLE ENERGY POWER PLANT ADDITIONS
Table B1: New RE IPP power plants
POWER PLANT PHOTOS
TOM BURKE SOLAR PV PARK (64MW)
Located in Lephalale municipal area, 5km
south of the Botswana border, Limpopo.
Source: http://www.observer.co.za/limpopos-third-solar-plant-
in-operation-soon/, Last accessed on 06 February 2017.
NOJOLI WIND FARM (86.6 MW)
Located near Cookhouse in the Eastern
Cape.
Source: Engineering News website:
http://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/enels-first-south-
african-wind-farm-connected-to-the-grid-2016-10-03. Last
accessed on 08 February 2017.
24
Table B1: New RE IPP power plants (continued)
PALEISHEUWEL PV PARK (75MW)
Located near Citrusdal in Western Cape
Source: Mybroadband website:
https://mybroadband.co.za/news/energy/163701-see-south-
africas-new-giant-solar-power-plant-photos.html, Last accessed
on 6 February 2017.
Robin Deep Landfill Power Project (3MW)
Located in Johannesburg in Gauteng.
Source: https://www.infrastructurene.ws/wp
content/uploads/sites/4/2016/12/ENERGY-Systems-has-switched-
on-power-generation-at-Robinson-Deep-landfill-site-in-
Johannesburg-c.jpg
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