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More Smiles, Less Miles

Tuesdays at APA

John Addison

Author, Save Gas, Save the PlanetPublisher, Clean Fleet Report

Readers Acclaim Save Gas, Save the Planet“This is the best book that I have seen describing practical solutions for driving less and buying the right vehicle. As someone responsible for the air quality for 7.5 million people, I recommend this book.”Jack BroadbentChief Executive Officer Bay Area Air Quality Management District

“Electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids and next generation fuels are all part of the clean tech revolution. John Addison delivers the fascinating details of today and tomorrow.”Clint WilderCo-Author of The Clean Tech Revolution and Contributing Editor at Clean Edge

"Read this book if you care about the future of our children. John Addison details the transportation solutions that will bring clear skies and reduce dangerous greenhouse gas emissions. It is fascinating to read about everything from smiles per gallon to electric vehicles, from people oriented development to high speed rail, and from driving less to enjoying life more."Assemblywoman Fiona Ma, California State Assembly Majority Whip

Catalyst for Change

Environment

Equity Imagination

Economy

More Smiles, Less MilesTrends in On-Road U.S. Transportation

• Smart Apps for Smart Travel• Clean Vehicles• Great Fuel Race• Ride Together & Ride Less• 80% Reduction GHG by 2050

At First Glance…

Urban• Happy Employers• Happy Merchants• Happy Commuters

Suburban• Happy Parents• Happy School Kids• Happy Cars

Major Trends• Oil Price > 250% of 2008 low of $32/barrel• Less Petroleum Consumed – peaked 2005• Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) - peaked

2007• Fewer Cars - dropped 3.5 million in 2009• Public Transit - 2008 50-year high• Emissions per vehicle is falling with CAFE• Electric Cars – 40,000 & growing• Smart Charging & Renewable Energy

3.5 Million Less U.S. Cars in 20091. Urban Density2. Smart Growth3. Public Transit4. Rail Connected5. One Car Households6. Employer Commute & Flexwork Programs7. Recession8. Cash for Clunkers9. Ride Sharing10. Car Sharing

Build It and They Will Come

Build It and They Will Come

Copyright by Comstock, Inc. 2000

Promise – Personal Planning Tools

Reality

Smart Apps add Transit, Bike, Walk

Smart Apps Get Personal

• Public Transit• Rail• Car• Car Share• Ride Share• Walk• Bicycling• Bike Share• Electric Car

511 + Realtime + Web 3.0

Personal Navigation Assistant

2010 Cars with Lowest GHG1. Toyota Prius2. Honda Civic Hybrid3. Honda Insight4. Ford Fusion Hybrid5. smart fortwo6. Honda Civic CNG7. Lexus HS 250h8. Nissan Altima Hybrid9. Toyota Camry Hybrid10. Ford Escape Hybridwww.cleanfleetreport.com

Circle of Life

Share the Gas Miser

4 Tons CO2 12 Tons CO2

Electric Vehicles coming to a freeway near you

• Tesla Roadster• Nissan LEAF• Toyota Prius Plug-in Hybrid• Chevy Volt• Ford Transit Connect• Ford Focus EV and PHEV• BYD E6• Fisker Karma• Think EVOver 40,000 on U.S. streets today

THE NISSAN EV

All the feature customers have come to expect:

Compact Car Size

Space For 5 People

100-Mile Range Advanced

SafetyFeatures

Renewable Energy Cost Trends

Wind

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

PV

CO

E c

ents

/kW

h

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

40

30

20

10

0

100

80

60

40

20

0

BiomassGeothermal Solar thermal

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

CO

E c

ents

/kW

h

10

8

6

4

2

0

706050403020100

15

12

9

6

3

0

Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office (www.nrel.gov/analysis/docs/cost_curves_2002.ppt)1These graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data.

Hybrid Medium & Heavy Vehicles

Potential 50% to 100% Emission Reduction

• Buses• Shuttles• Utilities’ Fleets• Delivery Fleets• Government• Trucks – Local &

Regional

Policy & Technology Drivers

• Fleet Economics• Idle-Off• SwartWay Truck Efficiency• CARB 2015 Hybrid

Required• CALSTART HTUF• Military Security• HEV Pathway to PHEV,

FCV, EV

Great Fuel Race

Petroleum Fuels• Gasoline• Diesel• U.S. = 97% PetroleumLow Carbon Fuels• Biofuels• Electricity• Natural Gas• Hydrogen

USMC Camp Pendleton Fleet

300+ Solar Charged EV

Hydrogen

5 Million Gallons B20

JP8 Tactical

Lighter than Air Fleets

• 2009 = 7 Million Natural Gas Vehicles

• 2009 = 1,000 Hydrogen Vehicles• H2 Vehicles 3X efficiency of

engine powered vehicles• Fleets have infrastructure• Consumers lack infrastructure• Renewable CH4 + H2• 2020 = 20 Million Natural Gas

Vehicles?• 2020 = 1 Million Hydrogen

Vehicles?

Renewable to Byproduct Hydrogen

Solar & REC Electrolysis Onsite CNG Reformation

LH2 DeliveredPipelined Byproduct

Biofuels• Corn Ethanol• Cellulosic Ethanol• Biogasoline Blends • Soy Biodiesel• Waste Biofuels• Algal biocrude & biofuelsFuture:• Fuel from wood and waste, not food and haste• All blending at refinery

– Valero #3 Biofuel Producer/Refiner– E10 to E20– B5 to B20– Biogasoline– Biocrude

• Electric drive 70% vs. engine 20% efficiency• Flexfuel vehicles & E85 Obsolete

GHG Source-to-Wheels DebateCalifornia Global Warming Intensity at Wheel (g CO2e/MJ)

114Corn with Coal ElectricityEthanol-12Cellulosic from Poplar TreesEthanol27California AverageElectricity

22Biomass & Pipeline DeliveryHydrogen48Onsite CH4 ReformedHydrogen79North American PipelinedCNG

167Coal-to-LiquidDiesel71ULSD RefinedDiesel92Oil RefinedGasoline

GREETProductionFuel

DOT Report to Congress 4/2010

Lifecycle GHG

$200 Oil Scenario: Electric Drive System Wins

2050

2020

Now

BioblendHydrogenElectricity

ElectricityDieselBioblend

Gasoline Bioblend

EthanolDieselGasoline

Employer ProgramsClean Fleet Potential > 10 Million CarsRide Share Programs• Incentives to Reduce Parking Spaces• Internal Website with Rideshare• Rideshare Zip Code Matching• Lunch & Learns• Corporate Car Sharing• Bike Sharing• Sponsor Events with Enterprise, Zipcar, etc.• Guaranteed Ride HomePublic Transportation

Public Transportation

50-year Record Ridership 2008• Rail• Light-rail• Bus Rapid Transit• Buses on Fixed Routes• Dynamic routed buses &

shuttles• Smart Apps for Smart Travel• Intermodal Connections

98% of U.S. Commuters Favor Public Transportation

for Others

- headline in the Onion

Public Transportation Trends• Revenue Challenges• Route & Frequency Prioritizing• Hybrid & Low Carbon Fuels• Suburban Commuter Buses• Realtime Info• Smart Apps• Dynamic Scheduling & Routing for

Events & Universities• Urban BRT

Transit Oriented Development

Secrets of Curitiba

Bus Rapid Transit

• Population Tripled• Car Population Dropped 30%• Visionary Leadership• Build Support over Time• Smart Growth

• Less expensive than rail• Flexible routes over 40 years• High capacity buses• Sheltered waiting• Prepayment• Rapid boarding• Fewer stops• Can be stepping stone to Light Rail

Intermodal Future

San Jose

Los Angeles

Ride Clean & Ride LessA Lesson in Smart Growth

Washington DC Invites Walking

• 11% walking commuters• 34% transit + walking

commuters• Urban density• Sidewalks & walkways• Parks• Expensive Parking

Schools without Gridlock• College/University

– Transit Passes paid for 100% students/staff

– Bicycle programs– Electric buses &

shuttles• High School - Low

cost transit• Middle School –

bicycle programs• Elementary – walk to

school programs

Bicycle Travelers• Daily commuters• Students• Recreation• Occasional Mode

Shifters

One Billion Bicycles Globally – 60 Million USA

Bicycle Commuters

• Regional Plan• Regional Bikeway

Network• Safe Bike Lanes• Transit with Adequate

Storage• Employer Storage• Employer Change

Rooms

Bicycle to Schools• Safe Routes to Schools• Bike to School Days• Bike Riding & Safety Clinics• Include in Teacher / Parent

Meetings• Safe Storage• Financial Incentives• College & University

Sponsored Events

Bicycle Recreation• Regional Plan• Safe Off-Street Paths• Paths with

Landmarks & Destinations

• Bike Clubs & Enviro Outreach Events

Occasional Mode-Shift

• Safe Routes to Transit• Bike Sharing near Transit &

Employment Centers• Smart Apps• Separated & Painted Bike Lanes• Merchant Promoted Street Fairs• Secure Storage

Community Programs• Smart Growth• Transit Oriented Development• SB375 Support• Parking Revenue• Merchant Sponsored Car-Free Days• Bikeway & Walkway Co-Funding• Commuter Express Buses• Rideshare • Transit Dynamic Scheduling for Events

Universities =Early Adopters

Bicycle Public Transit

Car SharingSmart Apps

U.S. Strategies to Reduce GHG1. Introduce low-carbon fuels2. Increase vehicle fuel economy3. Improve transportation system efficiency4. Reduce carbon-intensive travel activity5. Align transportation planning and

investments to achieve GHG reduction6. Price carbon

U.S. DOT GHG Report to Congress 4/2010

Climate Action Plans

80 / 2050 SF Bay Scenario

Vehicles : VMT : GHG/vehicle

15% : 28% : 67% = 80% Reduction of CO2e Emissions

80% Reduction GHG by 2050 Scenario for On-Road Transportation

80%66%47%16%(10%)(11%)GHG Reduction % from 1990

5.28.913.821.928.629.026.1Total GHG(MMT CO2e)

0.10.10.10.10.20.20.2Other

0.80.80.80.80.80.80.5Buses

1.01.41.92.73.33.03.1Heavy-duty vehicles

3.36.611.018.324.425.022.3Passenger cars & light trucks

2050204020302020201020001990

Ride TogetherImprove Infrastructure

Public TransitRide Share

Rail

Ride LessShift Transportation Behavior

• Smart Growth• Paid Parking• Safe Routes• Bicycling• Walking• Flexible Work• Telepresense• Education & Outreach

Ride CleanImprove Vehicles and Fuels

• Annual MPG Improvement

• Electric Vehicles• Charging Infrastructure• Green Fleets• Hybrid Heavy-Duty• Low Carbon Fuels

80% Scenario Requires 4% Annual GHG Reduction from Passenger Vehicles

Pick One• 10% vehicles replaced annually with a

vehicle with 40% improved MPG • 2% vehicles replaced annually with ZEV• 4% annual reduction in cars owned• 5% improvement in passengers/vehicle• 5% reduction in VMTor Combine with Easier Goals

U.S. DOT GHG Report to Congress 4/2010

Passenger Vehicle GHG Reduction

3.36.611.018.324.425.022.3Passenger cars & light trucks

2050204020302020201020001990

Cleaner Cars•CAFE 35.5 Mpg by 2016; over 70 MPG by 2050•1 million plug-in vehicles in Bay Area by 2046•Plug-ins use renewable energy•Cars drop from 4.6 million to 3.9 million by 2050

Behavior shift from solo driving to intermodal•Smart Apps – fund 511, etc.•Employer & community rideshare programs

VMT reduction 0.8%/yr per vehicle•Demographics & smart growth (SB375)•Walk/bike trips +3%/yr; city & university programs

Heavy-Duty & Other GHG Reduction

0.10.10.10.10.20.20.2Other

0.80.80.80.80.80.80.5Buses1.01.41.92.73.33.03.1Heavy-duty vehicles

2050204020302020201020001990

•Medium & Heavy Duty Vehicles•50% fleet efficiency economics•CARB Hybrid Requirements•Low Carbon Fuels•HEV pathway to HEV/low carbon fuels, PHEV, EV

•Buses•Constant GHG because ridership grows 250%•Transit rail linked; rail uses renewable energy•CARB ZEB + ZEV technology + Co-funding DOT/AB118

•Other•RV reduction & hybridization from feebate & gas tax•Globally most motorbikes already e-bikes

80% Reduction GHG by 2050 Scenario for On-Road Transportation

80%66%47%16%(10%)(11%)GHG Reduction % from 1990

5.28.913.821.928.629.026.1Total GHG(MMT CO2e)

0.10.10.10.10.20.20.2Other

0.80.80.80.80.80.80.5Buses

1.01.41.92.73.33.03.1Heavy-duty vehicles

3.36.611.018.324.425.022.3Passenger cars & light trucks

2050204020302020201020001990

Smart Growth• Urban

– Boundaries– Transit Oriented Development

• Suburban– LEED-ND– VMT Reduction– Safe Routes Schools & Transit

• RegionalIntegrated Plans (AB375)– Development / Land Use– Transportation– Greenhouse Gas EmissionsIncentives & Funding Support

Considerations for Planners

• Intermodal Future• Smart Growth• Regional Plan Integration• Regional ITS• Walkways• Bikeways• Last Miles to Transit Solutions• Paid Charging not Free Parking

More Smiles, Less Miles• Smart Apps for Smart Travel• Clean Vehicles• Great Fuel Race• Ride Together & Ride Less• 80% Reduction GHG by 2050

Get the Reports / Join the Dialog

www.cleanfleetreport.com