mtep19 futures resource forecast and siting review pac item 04b mtep19...2018/09/26  · info –...

Planning Advisory Committee

September 26, 2018

MTEP19 Futures Resource Forecast and Siting Review

1

*Updated: DR information – Slide 5, Feedback request

info – Slide 8, Supporting materials in the appendix

Objective:

• Review resource expansion and siting results for the MTEP19 Futures

Key-Takeaways:

• MTEP19 trends similar to fleet changes in analogous

MTEP18 futures

• Generally increased renewable additions due to

decreased capital costs, tax credit modeling, and

increased renewable energy level targets

• Updated demand-side programs modeled in MTEP19,

including additional distributed solar programs

• Siting methodology enhancements implemented for

utility-scale wind and solar, distributed solar, energy

storage, and electric vehicles

2

Overview

3

MTEP19 Futures Development Schedule

January PAC •Schedule & expectations

February PAC

•Review uncertainty variables

•Discuss impacts of equal weightings

March Workshop

•Further discuss any changes

•Discuss feedback & present proposed futures

June PAC

•Finalize MTEP19 future definitions

September PAC

•Final MTEP19 futures results & draft siting

•Solicit Siting Feedback

October •Final MTEP19 Futures posted on MISO website

Upcoming feedback deadlines:

• October 12: MTEP19 draft siting feedback due

4

Recap of MTEP19 Futures Key Assumptions

MTEP19 Future Limited Fleet Change Continued Fleet Change Accelerated Fleet Change Distributed & Emerging

Technologies

Demand and Energy

Low

(Demand: 0.0%, Energy 0.0%)

High LRZ9 Industrial

Base (50/50)

(Demand: 0.3%, Energy 0.4%)

High

(Demand: 0.6%, Energy 0.9%)

Low LRZ9 Industrial

Base + EV

(Demand: 0.4%, Energy 1.0%)

Fuel Prices Gas: Base -30%

Coal: Base -3% Base

Gas: Base +30%

Coal: Base Base

Demand Side Additions1

By Year 2033

EE: - GW

DR: 1 GW

DG PV: 1 GW

EE: 5 GW

DR: 0.2 GW

DG PV: 1 GW

EE: 7 GW

DR: 1 GW

DG PV: 2 GW

EE: 5 GW

DR: 0.2 GW

DG PV: 3 GW

Storage: 2 GW

Min. Renewable Penetration Level

By Year 2033 (% Wind & Solar Energy) 15% 20% 35% 25%

Generation Retirements2

By Year 2033

Coal: 10 GW

Gas/Oil: 16 GW

Coal: 19 GW

Gas/Oil: 16 GW

Coal: 19 GW+

Gas/Oil: 16 GW

Coal: 19 GW

Gas/Oil: 16 GW

Nuclear: 3 GW

CO2 Reduction Constraint

From Current Levels by 2033 None None 20% None

Siting Methodology3 MTEP Standard MTEP Standard MTEP Standard “Localized”

1. Capacity of demand side additions from programs defined in Applied Energy Group study and economically selected in resource forecast. Energy storage in Distributed and Emerging Technology is additional assumption

2. In Accelerated Fleet Change Scenario 19 GW of coal retired. In addition, 12 GW of coal dispatched seasonally and must-run removed on all units.

3. “Localized” renewable siting assumes that at least 50% of incremental wind and solar energy will be sourced within each Local Resource Zone. 2/3 of solar sited as distributed.

MTEP19 Nameplate Capacity Additions (2018 through 2033)

5

9.6 13.2 13.2 20.4 9.6 15.6 9.6 1.2 3.6

10.8 42.0

10.8 2.0

7.2

13.5

30.4

42.7

DR: 0.6

DR: 0.2

DR: 0.5

DR: 0.2

5.0

6.8

5.5

-35.2 -44.6 -44.6 -47.5

30.6

58.3

102.5

82.8

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Additions Retirements Additions Retirements Additions Retirements Additions Retirements

Limited Fleet Change Continued Fleet Change Accelerated Fleet Change Distributed and EmergingTechnologies

Nam

ep

late

Cap

acit

y A

dd

itio

ns (

GW

)

Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine Wind Energy Storage Solar PV DR Energy Efficiency Future Retirements

MTEP19 Energy Projections by Future (through 2033)1

6

76%

13%

7% 4%

48%

24%

16%

4% 8%

Accelerated Fleet Change Renewables and demand side

technologies added at a rate above

historical trends. Fleet changes result in a

20% CO2 emission reduction2.

Continued Fleet Change Continuation of the renewable addition

and coal retirement trends of the past

decade.

Limited Fleet Change Stalled generation fleet changes. Limited

renewables additions driven solely by

existing RPS under limited demand

growth.

2005

2033 Future Scenarios

Distributed & Emerging Tech New renewable additions largely

distributed and storage resources co-

located with largest sites.

2017

38%

32%

13%

11%

4%

2%

33%

31%

12%

14%

3% 3%

3%

30%

16%

11%

29%

7%

3% 4%

30%

32%

8%

13%

9%

4%

4%

1. Energy mix outputs from EGEAS do not consider transmission constraints

2. Emission reductions from current levels by year 2031

Thermal Regional Resource Forecast Units Siting* Accelerated Fleet Change Future

7 * Siting subject to change based on stakeholder review

MISO – using Velocity Suite © 2018

Going Forward

8 * Because the feedback deadline is on the Oct PAC materials posting date, stakeholder feedback will be incorporated & posted after the Oct PAC meeting

Feedback Request:

• Please provide feedback on the MTEP19 siting and retirements assumptions by

October 12* via the MISO Feedback portal, and send any questions or

attachments to mtepfutures@misoenergy.org

• Unit Siting Bus Locations – Please inform if site is not feasible (including why) and provide an

alternate siting location

• Retirements – all stakeholder feedback received to date has been incorporated and posted

Next Steps:

• Additional information as well as a summary of the entire MTEP19 Futures

development process will be provided in October*

• MTEP19 Futures PROMOD models will be posted for review in November

Questions?

MTEP Futures Team: MTEPFutures@misoenergy.org

Tony Hunziker:

AHunziker@misoenergy.org

10

Contact Information

Appendix

Limited Fleet Change Capacity Expansion (Comparison between MTEP18 and MTEP19)

12

0

10

20

30

M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19

2023 2028 2033 2023 2028 2033 2023 2028 2033

Thermal Solar PV Wind

GW

Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine Utility PV Distributed PV Wind

Retirements and Additions by LRZ (Limited Fleet Change Future)

13

5,550

2,477 3,319

1,745 1,754

3,972 4,616

1,134

3,543

1,904

(3,873) (3,050)

(1,588) (2,452)

(3,385) (2,839)

(6,394)

(4,102)

(6,071)

(1,555)

-10

-5

0

5

10

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

GW

LRZ

Base Retirement Coal Retire Gas/Oil Retire CC CT Wind Solar Solar DG

Continuous Fleet Change Capacity Expansion (Comparison between MTEP18 and MTEP19)

14

0

10

20

30

40

M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19

2023 2028 2033 2023 2028 2033 2023 2028 2033

Thermal Solar PV Wind

GW

Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine Utility PV Distributed PV Wind

Retirements and Additions by LRZ (Continuous Fleet Change Future)

15

7,945

3,728

6,229

3,297

7,084 7,863

7,064

1,667

5,136

3,043

(4,548)

(3,069)

(1,696)

(4,063)

(5,832) (5,005)

(8,999)

(4,102)

(6,071)

(1,555)

-10

-5

0

5

10

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

GW

LRZ

Base Retirement Coal Retirements Gas/Oil Retire CC CT Wind Solar Solar DG

Accelerated Fleet Change Capacity Expansion (Comparison between MTEP18 and MTEP19)

16

0

10

20

30

40

50

M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19

2023 2028 2033 2023 2028 2033 2023 2028 2033

Thermal Solar PV Wind

GW

Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine Utility PV Distributed PV Wind

Retirements and Additions by LRZ (Accelerated Fleet Change Future)

17

13,799

5,166

17,251

7,256 8,451

10,547

18,956

2,905 3,186

7,823

(4,548) (3,069)

(1,696) (4,063)

(5,832) (5,005)

(8,999)

(4,102) (6,071)

(1,555)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

GW

LRZ

Base Retirement Coal Retire Gas/Oil Retire CC CT Wind Solar Solar DG

Distributed & Emerging Technology Cap. Expansion (Comparison between MTEP18 and MTEP19)

18

0

10

20

30

40

50

M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19 M18 M19

2023 2028 2033 2023 2028 2033 2023 2028 2033

Thermal Solar PV Wind

GW

Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine Utility PV Distributed PV Wind

Retirements and Additions by LRZ (Distributed & Emerging Technology Future)

19

14,029

7,458 7,501 5,910

7,688 9,460 8,781

3,647

7,190 6,431

(5,094) (4,272)

(1,696)

(4,063) (5,832) (5,005)

(8,999)

(4,102)

(7,251)

(1,555)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

GW

LRZ

Base Retirement Coal Retire Nuclear Retirement Gas/Oil Retire CC CT Wind Solar Solar DG

Effective Load Carrying Capacity of Distributed &

Emerging Technology Future

20

4.8

15.6

32.4

8.7

22.8

42.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

MTEP18 MTEP19 MTEP18 MTEP19 MTEP18 MTEP19

2023 2028 2033

GW

Total PV (Utility + Distributed)

Reserve Contribution

Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

Solar

Capacity

Credit

50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 48% 46% 44% 42% 40% 38% 36% 34% 32% 30%

Thermal Regional Resource Forecast Unit Siting* Limited Fleet Change Future

21 * Siting subject to change based on stakeholder review and feedback

MISO – using Velocity Suite © 2018

Thermal Regional Resource Forecast Unit Siting* Continued Fleet Change Future

22 * Siting subject to change based on stakeholder review and feedback

MISO – using Velocity Suite © 2018

Thermal Regional Resource Forecast Unit Siting* Accelerated Fleet Change Future

23 * Siting subject to change based on stakeholder review and feedback

MISO – using Velocity Suite © 2018

Thermal Regional Resource Forecast Unit Siting* Distributed & Emerging Technologies Future

24 * Siting subject to change based on stakeholder review and feedback

MISO – using Velocity Suite © 2018

Wind Regional Resource Forecast Unit Siting* Draft MTEP19 Siting

25 * Siting subject to change based on stakeholder review and feedback

Wind Tier (MW)

Total

Available

Capacity

Limited

Fleet

Change

Continued

Fleet

Change

Accelerated

Fleet Change

Distributed and

Emerging

Technology

Tier- 1 / RGOS 13,837 3,600 10,800 13,837 10,200

Tier- 2 19,400 - - 19,400 100

Tier- 3 10,550 - - 8,763 -

Tier- 4 20,350 - - - 200

Tier- 5 6,950 - - - 300

Total 71,087 3,600 10,800 42,000 10,800 MISO – using Velocity Suite © 2018

Solar Regional Resource Forecast Unit Siting* Draft MTEP19 Siting

26 * Siting subject to change based on stakeholder review and feedback

Solar Tier (MW) Total Available

Capacity Limited Fleet Change

Continued Fleet

Change

Accelerated Fleet

Change

Distributed and

Emerging Technology

Tier- 1 7,870 4,809 7,869 7,869 7,869

Tier- 2 25,234 - 1,102 12,369 6,363

Distributed N/A 2,405 4,485 10,119 28,463

Total 33,103 7,214 13,456 30,357 42,695

MISO – using Velocity Suite © 2018