mumbai residential buy the panic of 2013 -jan13
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RE/MAX Innovest
RE/MAX VIEW ON MUMBAI RESIDENTIAL MARKET
-- BUY THE PANIC OF 2013 !
JANUARY 2013
AUTHORS : MILAN VORA # +91 98192 53100 E: MILAN.VORA@REMAX.IN KETAN VORA # +91 98197 95588 E: KETAN.VORA@REMAX.IN
Private and Confidential
For Discussion Purpose only
RE/MAX Innovest
GET 4 R’S RIGHT - TO MAXMISE RETURNS IN REAL ESTATE
Right Location Right Timing Right Project / Flat Right Value
City (Tier 1‐2‐3) Location with Rerating Potential Closer to Business District & Social Infrastructure Close to Existing and Planned connectivity Premium perception
Pessimistic Demand Environment (Current) Vs Bullish Environment Pre‐launch / Under construction after doing due diligence on Developer
More Space within project and flat Standalone Vs Complex Living
Right Amenities Right Sizing ‐ Preferred Views ‐ Vastu Developer Trackrecord Understanding nuances of project from End user perspective ( Design, Safety, Relevant amenities, Quality)
Evaluate on Carpet / Usable Carpet psft Price Vs Value : Understand why you are paying premium and then take a call Negotiate a good bargain Use Moderate level of Leverage (Loan Financing)
“Right Timing” is most critical to Maximising Returns
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RE/MAX Innovest
WILL 10-YEAR REAL ESTATE CYCLE REPEAT ITSELF WITHIN SECULAR BULL MARKET (HIGHER TOP HIGHER BOTTOM) ?
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Skepticism
Thrill Euphoria
Maximum Risk
Excitement
Optimism
Confidence
Point of Maximum Opportunity ‐2013
Projection
Anxiety
Denial
Fear PANIC Desperation
Skepticism
Confidence
Optimism
Excitement
2013 ‐ A Year of PANIC Most Pessimistic Demand Environment Maximum Supply Period Maximum pain at Developer end (Debt laden) Economic Growth expected to Revive while Interest rates have peaked
2003 – 2008 – Massive Bull Run Prices up by 3x to 5x (times)
depending on City, Location and Project Strong Economic Growth led significant increase in Demand & purchasing power
Mid 2013 to 2018 – Upturn Cycle,
By 2018 we would have, Cash Rich Strong Demand Environment Reduced Supply Lowest pain at Developer end Significant Price Appreciation !
2013 – Probably, the best time to “ Buy Premium Under Construction properties”
Markets Cycles are explained better by Sentiments rather
than Price trends
---------------- Bull Market ---------------- -------------- Bull Market ------------ ---------------- Bear Market ---------------- Source : RE/MAX Research
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RE/MAX Innovest
WHICH LOCATION LOOKS MOST ATTRACTIVE ? IS CENTRAL MUMBAI THE NEW SOUTH MUMBAI (MOST SOUGHT AFTER) ?
Preference for Central Mumbai is due to Newer development, New Connectivity and better proximity to New CBD (BKC, Lower Parel)
•More than 90% work done • Targeted to be operational by 2013
Metro Versova – Andheri ‐ Ghatkopar 11.07 km
•Completion : Soil Testing work is done •Targeted to be operational by 2016
Metro Charkop – Bandra ‐
Mankhurd
•More than 90% work completed •Targeted to be operational by 2013
Santacruz – Chembur Link Road
•Phase I: Pre commissioning Test & Trails in Jan/Feb 2013 •Phase II: by Nov 2013
Monorail Chembur ‐ Wadala –
Jacob Circle
•Museum – Anik junction (Wadala) •Anik ‐ Panjarpol Chembur •Panjarpol to Ghatkopar link road
Eastern Free Way
•Proposed 22km Road Bridge Mumbai Sewri to Navi Mumbai
Sewri– Panvel Six Lane Highway
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RE/MAX Innovest
“RIGHT PROJECT” : WHICH ATTRIBUTES WILL COMMAND PREMIUM IN FUTURE ?
• Safety Measures
• Sports Facilities
• Social Facilities
• Green Building
• Lifestyle Amenities
• Concierge Services
• Quality of craftsmanship
• Promise Vs Delivery (Under Construction)
• Legal Approvals in place (Under Construction)
• Developer track‐record and Financial Stability
• Living in a Large Complex
• Open Space within Complex
• Efficient Flat Layout & Larger Room Sizes
• Premium View & Vastu compliance
• Gentry
• Freehold properties
• Connectivity in terms of Time & Access ( CBD Areas, Airports, Highway, Railway, Metro/Mono)
• Social Infrastructure (Markets, Entertainment, School, Hospitals)
• Safety track‐record of area
• Premium feel of area Location Location Building ‐
Flat Building ‐
Flat
Amenities Amenities Quality Execution Quality
Execution
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RE/MAX Innovest
PARTIAL LIST OF KEY LAUNCHES EXPECTED IN 2013
Sr Developer Location Part of Mumbai
1. Lodha Group Worli Central Mumbai
2. Godrej Properties Byculla Central Mumbai
3. Ashok Piramal Group Sewri Central Mumbai
4. Ajay Piramal Group Byculla Central Mumbai
5. HBS Realtors Worli Central Mumbai
6. Shapoorji Pallonji Group Tardeo South Mumbai
7. L&T Realty Powai Central Suburb
8. Tata Housing Mulund Central Suburb
9. Shapoorji Pallonji Group Kandivali Western Suburb
10. Kalpataru Goregaon West Western Suburb
11. Sheth Creators Malad West Western Suburb
12. Rustomjee Juhu Western Suburb
13. Oberoi Realty Goregaon East Western Suburb
14. Wadhwa Group Panvel New Mumbai
Marked in Red : Just Launched in Jan 2013
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RE/MAX Innovest
OUR CORE FOCUS : PREMIUM PROPERTIES IN MUMBAI ACROSS DEVELOPERS
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RE/MAX Innovest
RE/MAX INNOVEST – BROKER OWNER PROFILE
Milan Vora
Milan has a extensively worked in multinational firms like Siemens Ltd and CRISIL Ltd and has rich experience in the areas of financial research & analytics, corporate finance, risk management, and structured finance.
Runs an integrated wealth management company advising clients across major asset class including (equity, bonds, insurance, real estate and commodities)
M: +91 9819253100 E: milan.vora@remax.in
Ketan Vora
Ketan has more than a decade’s experience in insurance planning and investment management business
Runs an integrated wealth management company advising clients across major asset class including (equity, bonds, insurance, real estate and commodities)
M: +91 9819795588 E: ketan.vora@remax.in
Corporate Office Address
RE/MAX Innovest – A unit of Innovest Realty LLP
Block 30, 295, Miranda Building, N. C. Kelkar Road, Dadar (West), Mumbai – 400028. India
T: +91 22 24317075 / 2421 7075
W: www.remax.in ; www.remax.com ; www.global.remax.com ; www.joinremax.com
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RE/MAX Innovest
RE/MAX – UNPARALLEL GLOBAL AND NATIONAL NETWORK
Global Reach 90,000+ Associates
7,000+ offices 85+ countries 38+ Years
Nobody in the world sells more real estate than RE/MAX
National Reach 500+ Associates 100+ offices 23 Regions 3 Years
www.remax.com & www.global.remax.com www.remax.in
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RE/MAX Innovest
RE/MAX INNOVEST CORE PHILOSOPHY “CLIENT INTEREST COMES FIRST”
Primary Business Focus : “Premium Properties”
Across Real Estate Segments Residential | Commercial | Retail Buy | Sell | Rent | Preleased
Customised Solution Individual | Corporate | Investor | Developer
Integrated Offerings Advisory |Transaction Mgmt | Funding | Services
Guiding Principles
Integrity
Innovation
Prudence
Performance
INTEGRATED REAL ESTATE SERVICES
AFFILIATION
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RE/MAX Innovest
DISCLAIMER
This document is prepared for information only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an real estate investment decision. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of a real estate or investment decision. The analysis, information discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors.
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RE/MAX Innovest
CHANGING TRENDS IN REAL ESTATE BROKING
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