“myanmar economic prospects and risks” presentation at 14 th asia cementrade summit, rangon,...

LOCAL CONCERNS GLOBAL APPROACHES

By Adam McCarty (adaminhanoi@gmail.com)

“Myanmar economic prospects and risks”

presentation at 14th Asia Cementrade Summit, Rangon, Myanmar (13 September, 2012)

www.mekongeconomics.com

Contents

1. Perspective: development path (Gapminder) – slower but not stagnant; need to reindustrialise.

2. Key data

3. Macroeconomics and trade

4. Themes to understand

5. SWOT and Business Opportunities

Poorest in ASEAN

GDP: Roll a dice

Country Data source 2007/2008 2008/2009

2000 to

2008 GDI/GDP ICOR

Myanmar Official 11.9 10.7 12.6 12.4 1.0

  ESCAP 5.5 2.0      

  IMF 5.5 4.5 4.6     

  ADB 5.5  3.6 6.0

(2012)     

 The Economist 3.4 0.9      

China   11.4 10.0 9.3 39.3 4.2

Vietnam   8.5 7.0 7.1 34.1 4.8

Other indicative and key data

• Electricity sales grew 4.5% p.a. 2002-2009• Cement sales grew 1.8% p.a. 2004-2009• Poverty 26% (IHLCS 2010)• 26% of households have grid electricity• Adult literacy 92% (?)• Infant mortality rate 50/1,000• Life expectancy 62 years• 13 million (of 60 million) aged 15-28 years

Macroeconomic management a concern

IMF: Kyat 30-40% over-valued (expect depreciation)Exchange rate unified March 2012

Deficits widen and few export items

68% of exports

are gas, logs,

and legumes.

Clothing

and footwear

are only 8%

of exports.

Themes to understand

Public Investment: small total; central projects; locals rely on own-funds (WB PEFA). Tax revenue 3% of GDP.

Administrative capacities/systems (FDI in manufacturing, hotels and tourism totalled $53.6m during 2005-2010)

Tertiary education: generational variance

Logistics performance and infrastructure: Marginally worst in ASEAN

Business Opportunities

• SHORT TERM:– Tourism– Extractives: oil, gas, mining– Licences (e.g. telecoms)

• LONG TERM:– 2015 elections are market entry trigger.

LOCAL CONCERNS GLOBAL APPROACHES

By Adam McCarty (adaminhanoi@gmail.com),

www.mekongeconomics.com

QUESTIONS?

“Myanmar economic prospects and risks”

presentation at 14th Asia Cementrade Summit, Rangon, Myanmar (13 September, 2012)