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Produced by: Robert Parker,
Senior Adviser – Investment Strategy & Research
Navigating Economic, Capital
Markets & Investment Risk
September 2015
“This document represents the views of the Investment Strategy Department of CS and has not been prepared in accordance with thelegal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. It is not a product of the Credit Suisse Research Department even if it contains published research recommendations.”
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46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
Sep 12 Jan 13 May 13 Sep 13 Jan 14 May 14 Sep 14 Jan 15 May 15 Sep 15
China Eurozone UK Japan USA
Index
Economic Risk – Global business sentiment shows consolidation, except weaker data in China
Last data point: 04.09.2015 Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC
2
Economic Risk – major difference between headline and
core inflation data
-3.0
0
3.0
6.0
1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015
USA CPI Headline Inflation USA CPI Core Inflation Inflation target (2%)
% YoY
Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
3
Last data point: 15.07.2015
309.09.2015
Economic Risk: The strong dollar is depressing US exports
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
US exports US non-oil imports Non-oil trade balance (rhs, inverted)
% YoY 3mma USD bn, 3mma
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC
4
Last data point: 31.07.2015
409.09.2015
-'500
0
'500
1'000
1'500
2'000
2'500
Sep 84 Sep 88 Sep 92 Sep 96 Sep 00 Sep 04 Sep 08 Sep 12
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Housing starts US House Price growth YoY (FHFA index) (rhs)
Units in '000 % YoY
Economic Risk: US housing slowdown
Last data point: 30.06.2015 Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
5
Economic and Geopolitical Risk – US budget contraction
Source: International Monetary Fund, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point: 31.10.2014
Higher spending,
lower taxes
Lower spending,
higher taxes
609.09.2015
Germany
AustriaBelgium Italy
Spain
Greece
Portugal
France
Netherlands
IrelandFinland
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
General government gross debt in % of GDP (2015 estimate)
Budget deficit in %
of
GD
P (
201
5 e
stim
ate
)
Debt less than 60% of GDP and
budget deficit below 3% of GDP
Eurozone Risks: Fiscal health – large differences
Sources: EU Commission, Datastream, Credit Suisse
709.09.2015
Japan Implementation Risks: Structural reforms – slow
but steady
Impact on
potential
growth
Status
Status
expected in
6-12 mts
Allowing for substantial immigration very high politically not acceptable
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) high Negotiations in progress
Exemptions of overtime pay for specialist workers / managers high In parliament Passed
Facilitate part-time work in Workers Dispatch Act high In parliament Passed
Promote female labor participation (abolish negative tax incentives) high Reviewed ‘in progress’
Electricity reform (more competition, restart nuclear power) medium decided ‘until 2020’
Health care reforms mediumsome measures
takenpassed
Push GPIF towards riskier asset allocation low implemented
Deregulation in special economic zones low Approved approved
Enhance corporate governance low implemented
Tax policy (lower corporate taxes, higher consumption taxes) low Implemented
Deregulate heavily protected agriculture sector low Announced in parliament
Picture source: Wikimedia, Public Domain
Last data point: 27.08.2015 Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Mar 99 Mar 01 Mar 03 Mar 05 Mar 07 Mar 09 Mar 11 Mar 13 Mar 15
BRIC industrial production G3 industrial production
% YoY, 3mma
Economic Risk – BRIC slowdown
Last data point: 07.09.2015 Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
9
Economic Risk – Emerging economies under pressure
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
China
India
EM-8 average
Indonesia
BRIC average
GCC
Thailand
South Korea
Turkey
Poland
Mexico
South Africa
Argentina
Brazil
Russia
Source: Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point: 20.08.2015
% GDP growth
2015 (forecast)
China & India: structural crossover
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
% GDP growth
China
India
Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point: 15.05.2015
1109.09.2015
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15
ECB Fed BoE BoJ SNB
Central bank assets, indexed, 01.01.2007 = 100
Monetary Risk: Central Bank balance sheets
Last data point: 31.08.2015 Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
12
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Sep 12 Jan 13 May 13 Sep 13 Jan 14 May 14 Sep 14 Jan 15 May 15 Sep 15
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Net speculative long position (rhs) WTI crude oil price
USD/bbl 000 contracts
Geopolitical Risk: WTI crude oil vs. speculative net longs
Last data point: 04.09.2015 Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
13“Please note: Historical performance indications and financial market scenarios are not reliable indicators of current or future performance.”
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Net speculative long positions (futures & options, rhs) CBOT corn price
USd/bu in '000 contracts
Corporate Risk: Soft Commodities
Last data point: 04.09.2015 Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC
14“Please note: Historical performance indications and financial market scenarios are not reliable indicators of current or future performance.”
'400
'500
'600
'700
'800
'900
1'000
1'100
1'200
1'300
1'400
Dec 99 Dec 01 Dec 03 Dec 05 Dec 07 Dec 09 Dec 11 Dec 13
MSCI World lc
MSCI World (lc)
Valuation Risk: Performance - MSCI World
Last data point: 04.09.2015 Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
15“Please note: Historical performance indications and financial market scenarios are not reliable indicators of current or future performance.”
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14
Euphoria
Panic
CS Risk Appetite
Last data point: 26.08.2015 Source: Credit Suisse / IDC
16
Valuation Risk: 12-month forward P/E – MSCI World
5
10
15
20
25
30
1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013
Japan
US
Euro
zone
12mts fw P/E (longterm averages as dotted line)
Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point: 28.08.2015
17“Please note: Historical performance indications and financial market scenarios are not reliable indicators of current or future performance.”
09.09.2015 18IDC 18
Market Valuation Table
Last data point: 08.09.2015 Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
MSCI
index 2015 2016 2017
US 17.9 16.1 14.2 7.4 2.7 2.2
Europe ex UK 15.1 13.7 12.4 10.0 1.7 3.2
Pan Europe 14.9 13.6 12.2 7.6 1.7 3.5
UK 15.0 13.6 12.1 2.4 1.7 4.1
Japan 13.5 12.4 11.5 14.1 1.3 2.0
Brazil 12.7 9.7 8.0 8.6 1.2 4.2
Latin America 14.3 11.4 9.4 11.9 1.6 3.0
Russia 8.6 7.5 6.4 -8.3 0.7 4.7
Emerging Europe 6.8 6.0 5.2 -1.0 0.8 4.0
China 9.1 8.1 7.3 8.8 1.3 3.2
Hong Kong 14.3 13.2 12.0 5.2 1.2 3.1
Asia x Japan 11.2 10.2 9.2 8.6 1.3 3.0
Emerging Markets 11.0 9.8 8.7 8.5 1.3 3.0
Global 15.7 14.2 12.7 8.0 2.0 2.6
* = w eighted 12M forw ard YoY EPS grow th
P/E Price-to-
book (x)
Dividend
yield (%)
EPS
growth* (%)
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
2.00
Jan 97 Jan 99 Jan 01 Jan 03 Jan 05 Jan 07 Jan 09 Jan 11 Jan 13 Jan 15
Defensive to Cyclical ratio
Defensives Outperforming
Global Defensives to Cyclicals Ratio
Last data point: 04.09.2015 Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
19
20IDC 20
Focus on liquid companies increasing dividends & share
buybacks
Last data point: 10.08.2015 Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Tele
com
s
Energ
y
Utilit
ies
Mate
rials
Fin
ancia
ls
Glo
bal E
quitie
s
US
Corp
Bonds
(agg.)
Cons. S
taple
s
Industr
ials
Health C
are
Cons. D
isc.
IT
US
Govt
Bonds
(agg.)
(in %)
09.09.2015 21IDC 21
MSCI World Sector PEs
Last data point: 08.09.2015 Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 18.0 19.0
MSCI World Cons Discr
MSCI World Cons Staples
MSCI World Energy
MSCI World Financials
MSCI World Health Care
MSCI World Industrials
MSCI World IT
MSCI World Materials
MSCI World T/cm Svs
MSCI World Utilities
12M forward P/E 5Y average 12M forward P/E
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Jan 94 Jan 96 Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 Jan 14
Shanghai Composite Shanghai Shenzhen 300 MSCI China
30th June 2005 = 100
Chinese Market Risk
Last data point: 04.09.2015 Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
22“Please note: Historical performance indications and financial market scenarios are not reliable indicators of current or future performance.”
23IDC 23
12M forward P/E EM vs World
Last data point: 08.09.2015 Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15
MSCI EM MSCI World Avg. MSCI EM Avg. MSCI World
12M forward P/E
“Please note: Historical performance indications and financial market scenarios are not reliable indicators of current or future performance.”
-0.5
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Sep 14 Nov 14 Jan 15 Mar 15 May 15 Jul 15 Sep 15
US EMU Switzerland UK
%
Fixed Income Risks: 10Y Government Bond Yield
Last data point: 04.09.2015 Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
24“Please note: Historical performance indications and financial market scenarios are not reliable indicators of current or future performance.”
0
'200
'400
'600
'800
1'000
1'200
1'400
1'600
1'800
2'000
Sep 05 Sep 06 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14
0
'200
'400
'600
'800
1'000
1'200
1'400
1'600
1'800
2'000
AAA AA A BBB High Yield (rhs)
US benchmark spreads (bp) US benchmark spreads (bp)
Credit Risks: US credit spreads by rating categories
Last data point: 04.09.2015 Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC
25“Please note: Historical performance indications and financial market scenarios are not reliable indicators of current or future performance.”
Energy and Non-Energy high yield spreads
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Jan 13 May 13 Sep 13 Jan 14 May 14 Sep 14 Jan 15 May 15
Non-Energy HY
Energy HY
HY
bps
Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point: 28.08.2015
26“Please note: Historical performance indications and financial market scenarios are not reliable indicators of current or future performance.”
Emerging Debt Risk – BRIC debt spreads
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
China
India
Brazil
Russia
Sovereign debt spread in bps
Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point: 30.08.2015
27“Please note: Historical performance indications and financial market scenarios are not reliable indicators of current or future performance.”
US Dollar risk: Trade-weighted US-dollar index
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
US Trade Weighted Broad Dollar Index
Index
USD depreciating
USD appreciating
Source: Federal Reserve, Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
28
Last data point: 28.08.2015
28“Please note: Historical performance indications and financial market scenarios are not reliable indicators of current or future performance.”
EM currencies against the USD – under pressure
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Appreciation vs.
USD
Depreciation vs.
USD
Index
CNY
BRL
MXN
MYR
INR
IDR
TRY
ZAR
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point: 30.08.2015
29
Hedge Fund Barometer
1
2
3
4
5
6
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15Hedge Fund Barometer Level 13W moving average
Dangerous conditions
Favorable conditions
Index
Dot-com
bubble
Russian
crisis
9/11
Subprime
crisis
Credit
crisis
Eurozone
crisis Fed Tapering
Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDCLast data point: 30.08.2015
30
Cross Asset Class overview
31
Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse
Equities Fixed Income A.I.’s
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
All c
ou
ntr
ies (
MS
CI
AC
Wo
rld
)
US
(S
&P
50
0)
Eu
rozo
ne
(D
J E
uro
Sto
xx 5
0)
UK
(FTS
E 1
00
)
Jap
an
(To
pix
10
0)
Canad
a (
MS
CI
Can
ad
a)
Sw
itze
rland
(S
MI)
Au
str
alia (
AS
X 2
00)
All E
merg
ing
(M
SC
I E
M)
US
Go
vt,
me
d.-
term
US
Co
rpo
rate
s
US
Hig
h Y
ield
EM
U G
ovt.
, m
ed
.-te
rm
EM
U H
igh
Yie
ld
Sw
iss G
ovt.
, 1
- 1
0Y
UK
Go
vt,
1 -
10
Y
Co
mm
od
itie
s
Go
ld
He
dg
e F
und
s
Pri
vate
Eq
uity
Glo
bal R
eal E
sta
te E
qu
itie
s
US
Real E
sta
te E
qu
itie
s
US
Dir
ect
Pro
pert
ies
Eu
rozo
ne
Real E
sta
te E
qu
itie
s
UK
Real E
sta
te E
qu
itie
s
Sw
iss R
eal E
sta
te,
Fu
nd
s
Asia
n R
eal E
sta
te E
qu
itie
s
Projected Total Return (5Y average)
CS CMA model: Feb 2015“The disclaimer at the end of this material also applies to this page.”
“Future performance indications and financial market scenarios are not reliable indicators of current or future performance.”
Pockets of Problems:
32
Energy Sectors
Other commodity sectors
Secondary Chinese Real Estate
Russian corporate refinancing
EM overleveraged companies
Sovereigns, Venezuela, Ukraine, Greece
Poor governance, corruption
Safe Havens are expensive
Monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve
“The disclaimer at the end of this material also applies to this page.”
Opportunities:
33
Long/Short Fixed Income
Selective EM and HY debt
Long/Short equity strategies
Cyclicals
Commodity Consumers
Beneficiaries from the upturn in the M&A cycle
Beneficiaries from devaluation
Highly liquid companies increasing dividends
Illiquid undervalued assets
Transparent structured products
“The disclaimer at the end of this material also applies to this page.”
Risk warning
Every investment involves risk, especially with regard to fluctuations in value and return. If an investment is denominated in a currency other than your base currency, changes in the rate of exchange may have an adverse effect on value, price or income.
For a discussion of the risks of investing in the securities mentioned in this document, please refer to the following Internet link:https://research.credit-suisse.com/riskdisclosure
This document may include information on investments that involve special risks. You should seek the advice of your independent financial advisor prior to taking any investment decisions based on this document or for any necessary explanation of its contents. Further information is also available in the information brochure “Special Risks in Securities Trading” available from the Swiss Bankers Association.
Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Performance can be affected by commissions, fees or other charges as well as exchange rate fluctuations.
Financial market risks
Historical returns and financial market scenarios are no guarantee of future performance. The price and value of investments mentioned and any income that might accrue could fall or rise or fluctuate. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. If an investment is denominated in a currency other than your base currency, changes in the rate of exchange may have an adverse effect on value, price or income. You should consult with such advisor(s) as you consider necessary to assist you in making these determinations.
Investments may have no public market or only a restricted secondary market. Where a secondary market exists, it is not possible to predict the price at which investments will trade in the market or whether such market will be liquid or illiquid.
Emerging markets
Where this document relates to emerging markets, you should be aware that there are uncertainties and risks associated with investments and transactions in various types of investments of, or related or linked to, issuers and obligors incorporated, based or principally engaged in business in emerging markets countries. Investments related to emerging markets countries may be considered speculative, and their prices will be much more volatile than those in the more developed countries of the world. Investments in emerging markets investments should be made only by sophisticated investors or experienced professionals who have independent knowledge of the relevant markets, are able to consider and weigh the various risks presented by such investments, and have the financial resources necessary to bear the substantial risk of loss of investment in such investments. It is your responsibility to manage the risks which arise as a result of investing in emerging markets investments and the allocation of assets in your portfolio. You should seek advice from your own advisers with regard to the various risks and factors to be considered when investing in an emerging markets investment.
Alternative investments
Hedge funds are not subject to the numerous investor protection regulations that apply to regulated authorized collective investments and hedge fund managers are largely unregulated. Hedge funds are not limited to any particular investment discipline or trading strategy, and seek to profit in all kinds of markets by using leverage, derivatives, and complex speculative investment strategies that may increase the risk of investment loss.
Commodity transactions carry a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for many private investors. The extent of loss due to market movements can be substantial or even result in a total loss.
Investors in real estate are exposed to liquidity, foreign currency and other risks, including cyclical risk, rental and local market risk as well as environmental risk, and changes to the legal situation.
Interest rate and credit risks
The retention of value of a bond is dependent on the creditworthiness of the Issuer and/or Guarantor (as applicable), which may change over the term of the bond. In the event of default by the Issuer and/or Guarantor of the bond, the bond or any income derived from it is not guaranteed and you may get back none of, or less than, what was originally invested.
.
MARKETING MATERIAL – THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT RESEARCHPlease contact your Credit Suisse representative for more information 3434
Investment Strategy Department
Investment Strategists are responsible for multi-asset class strategy formation and subsequent implementation in CS’s discretionary and advisory businesses. If shown, Model Portfolios are provided for illustrative purposes only. Your asset allocation, portfolio weightings and performance may look significantly different based on your particular circumstances and risk tolerance. Opinions and views of Investment Strategists may be different from those expressed by other Departments at CS. Investment Strategist views may change at any time without notice and with no obligation to update. CS is under no obligation to ensure that such updates are brought to your attention.
From time to time, Investment Strategists may reference previously published Research articles. These Research articles are available on the following internet link: https://investment.credit-suisse.com
For information regarding disclosure information on Credit Suisse Investment Banking rated companies mentioned in this report, please refer to the Investment Banking division disclosure site at:
https://rave.credit-suisse.com/disclosures
For further information, including disclosures with respect to any other issuers, please refer to the Credit Suisse Global Research Disclosure site at: https://www.credit-suisse.com/disclosure
Global disclaimer / important information
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& ESTIMATES: Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. To the extent that this document contains statements about future performance, such statements are forward looking and subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. Unless indicated to the contrary, all figures are unaudited. All valuations mentioned herein are subject to CS valuation policies and procedures. CONFLICTS: CS reserves the right to remedy any errors that may be present in this document. CS, its affiliates and/or their employees may have a position or holding, or other material interest or effect transactions in any securities mentioned or options thereon, or other investments related thereto and from time to time may add to or dispose of such investments. CS may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or investment services in relation to the investments listed in this document or a related investment to any company or issuer mentioned. Some investments referred to in this document will be offered by a single entity or an associate of CS or CS may be the only market maker in such investments. CS is involved in many businesses that relate to companies mentioned in this document. These businesses include specialized trading, risk arbitrage, market making, and other proprietary trading. TAX: Nothing in this document constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice. CS does not advise on the tax consequences of investments and you are advised to contact an independent tax advisor. The levels and basis of taxation are dependent on individual circumstances and are subject to change. SOURCES: Information and opinions presented in this document have been obtained or derived from sources which in the opinion of CS are reliable, but CS makes no representation as to their accuracy or completeness. CS accepts no liability for a loss arising from the use of this document. WEBSITES: This document may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, websites. Except to the extent to which the document refers to website material of CS, CS has not reviewed the linked site and takes no responsibility for the content contained therein. Such address or hyperlink (including addresses or hyperlinks to CS’s own website material) is provided solely for your convenience and information and the content of the linked site does not in any way form part of this document. Accessing such website or following such link through this document or CS’s website shall be at your own risk.
MARKETING MATERIAL – THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT RESEARCHPlease contact your Credit Suisse representative for more information 3535
Investment Strategy Department
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Lebanon: This report is being provided by Credit Suisse (Lebanon) Finance SAL (“CSLF”), a financial institution regulated by the Central Bank of Lebanon and subject to the supervision of, inter alia, the Banking Control Commission and the Capital Markets Authority. CSLF is a subsidiary of Credit Suisse AG, Zurich and is registered on the list of financial institutions issued by the Central Bank of Lebanon under number 42. Luxembourg: This report is distributed by Credit Suisse (Luxembourg) S.A., a Luxembourg bank, authorized and regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF). Qatar: This information has been distributed by Credit Suisse Financial Services (Qatar) L.L.C, which has been authorized and is regulated by the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority (QFCRA) under QFC No. 00005. All related financial products or services will only be available to Business Customers or Market Counterparties (as defined by the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority (QFCRA)), including individuals, who have opted to be classified as a Business Customer, with liquid assets in excess of USD 1 million, and who have sufficient financial knowledge, experience and understanding to participate in such products and/or services. Spain: This report is distributed in Spain by Credit Suisse AG, Sucursal en España, authorized under number 1460 in the Register by the Banco de España. United Kingdom: This report is issued by Credit Suisse (UK) Limited and Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited. Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited and Credit Suisse (UK) Limited, both authorized by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority, are associated but independent legal entities within Credit Suisse. The protections made available by the Financial Conduct Authority and/or the Prudential Regulation Authority for retail clients do not apply to investments or services provided by a person outside the UK, nor will the Financial Services Compensation Scheme be available if the issuer of the investment fails to meet its obligations.
UNITED STATES: NEITHER THIS REPORT NOR ANY COPY THEREOF MAY BE SENT, TAKEN INTO OR DISTRIBUTED IN THE UNITED STATES OR TO ANY US PERSON (WITHIN THE MEANING OF REGULATION S UNDER THE US SECURITIES ACT OF 1933, AS AMENDED).
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15C005A-IS
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