ncdm 2010 - target customers effectively through advanced analytics - netezza - intuit
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Targe t Cus tomers Effec tive ly Through Advanced Analytics
Brad TerrellVP & General Manager,Digital Media
Arup RayDirector, Data Warehousing & Business Intelligence Development and Architecture
“Innovation distinguishes betweena leader and a follower”
- Steve Jobs
Before…
After…
1 00x THE PERFORMANCE
½ THE COST
UNMATCHEDSIMPLICITY
Right message…
Right person…
Right time…
Netezza wins 2010 DMA Innovation Awardfor Market Segmentation and Optimization technology
“300% to 2,000% conversion rate improvements”
“25% conversion rate increase with 33% lower CPA”
Consumer attention is fragmenting
Digital Exhaustbenefits marketers
Marketing and Data Analysis are Intertwined
The Data Aggregation Problem
High
High
High
Recency of visits to YourWebSite.com
Inco
me
Age: 50-65Income: Low
Recency: Low
Age: 18-24Income: HighRecency: Low
Age: 25-35Income: High
Recency: High
Age: 36-49Income: Low
Recency: High
The Segmentation Problem
Target Segment
Awareness
Consideration
Intent
The Matching Problem
Market X: Price/Volume Curve
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00
CPM Bid
IMP
RE
SS
ION
S P
ER
DA
Y
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00
CPM Bid
PR
OF
IT
Market X: Profit Curve
Price/Volume Forecast Curves Show the Optimal Bid in Each Market:
( ) ( )( )BNBRmax ⋅−R = revenue derived from showing adB = ad’s bid
N(B) = impression volume for bid B as predicted by P/V Curve
The Bidding Problem
Customer Insight Through Deeper Analysis(The Fastest Climbers Win)
BI Reporting and Ad-Hoc Analysis
• What happened?• When and where?• How much?
Predictive Analytics
• What will happen?• What will the impact be?
Optimization
• What is thebest choice?
Arup RayDirector, Data Warehousing & Business Intelligence Development and Architecture
20
Intuit Company Information
Who We Are …A leading provider of business and financial management solutions
Company Founded: 1983 Date Public: 1993 Stock Symbol: NASDAQ: INTU GAAP Net Revenue (Fiscal 2010): $3.2 billionEmployees: ~ 8000Locations: 60 locations in 40 cities around the globe
Trusted Leading Brands
21
Multiple Channels for Online Acquisition
22
• Ad Networks• Portals• Content Sites
Display
• Brand• GenericPaid Search
• Brand• GenericOrganic Search
Affiliates
Life stage of customer acquisition
23
Firs
t im
pres
sion
Aut
hent
icat
ion
Con
vers
ion
Awareness Pre-Conversion
Post-Conversion
What is working?
24
• Which channels are yielding results? Which sub-channels?
• Are channels cannibalizing each other?
• What works at what stage of the acquisition funnel?
High Level Goals of Intuit Marketers
• Optimize spend across
channels
• Coordinate spend across
channels
• Optimize messaging in
ads
• Use early converter
behavior for mid-course
adjustments
Where is the data to help me?
• Doubleclick tracks all converters and non-converters across web sites as well as on key pages of our web site
• Omniture tracks customer behavior on our site
• These data sets are warehoused in our Customer Experience Data Warehouse running on Netezza
• Massive volumes of data – the impression table alone has more than 40 Billion rows!
26
What does the data tell me?
• A lot …
– About the effectiveness of the acquisition channel as well as specific campaigns
– About channel interferences
– About product issues
– About customer behavior with regards to acquisition campaigns
27
CHANNEL EFFECTIVENESSExample of Display Ads from Ad Networks
28
Ad Network – A
29
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
1 10 19 28 37 46 55 64 73 82 91 100
109
118
127
136
145
154
163
172
181
190
199
208
217
226
235
244
253
262
271
280
289
298
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
1 10 19 28 37 46 55 64 73 82 91 100
109
118
127
136
145
154
163
172
181
190
199
208
217
226
235
244
253
262
271
280
289
298
Con
vers
ion
Rat
eR
each
by
Exp
osur
eF
requ
ency
Display Impressions
Display Impressions
Aver
age
expo
sure
s pe
r co
okie
= 2
8.9
Aver
age
conv
ersi
on ra
te =
3.1
%Av
erag
e im
pres
sion
s pe
r co
nver
sion
= X
X.X
Ad Network - B
30
0.0%5.0%
10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%
1 10 19 28 37 46 55 64 73 82 91 100
109
118
127
136
145
154
163
172
181
190
199
208
217
226
235
244
253
262
271
280
289
298
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97
Con
vers
ion
Rat
e
Rea
ch b
yE
xpos
ure
Fre
quen
cy
Display Impressions
Display Impressions Aver
age
expo
sure
s pe
r co
okie
= 1
5.6
Aver
age
conv
ersi
on ra
te =
14.
8%Av
erag
e im
pres
sion
s pe
r co
nver
sion
= X
.X
Ad Network - C
31
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
1 10 19 28 37 46 55 64 73 82 91 100
109
118
127
136
145
154
163
172
181
190
199
208
217
226
235
244
253
262
271
280
289
Con
vers
ion
Rat
eR
each
by
Exp
osur
eF
requ
ency
Display Impressions
Display Impressions
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
1 10 19 28 37 46 55 64 73 82 91 100
109
118
127
136
145
154
163
172
181
190
199
208
217
226
235
244
253
262
271
280
289
Aver
age
expo
sure
s pe
r co
okie
= 6
.05
Aver
age
conv
ersi
on ra
te =
3.8
%Av
erag
e im
pres
sion
s pe
r co
nver
sion
= X
X.XX
Portal Home Pages – Distinct Visitors
32
0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000 7000000 8000000
AOL HP 01/10
0131 AOL HP NB
0201 AOL HP NB
0221 AOL HP 300x250
0124 AOL HP
0125 AOL HP Textlink
0221 AOL HP - Textlink
0125 AOL HP
0124 AOL HP Textlink
0201 AOL HP Textlink
0131 AOL HP Textlink
0201 AOL HP RM - Host
0131 AOL HP RM - Host
0201 AOL RM - User Initiated
0124 MSN HP Money Module Txtlink
0124 MSN HP
0207 Yahoo Marketplace - Logo + text
0131 Yahoo HP RM
0214 MSN HP
0215 MSN HP
0125 MSN HP
0201 MSN HP
0131 MSN HP
0201 MSN HP Money Module Txtlink
0131 MSN HP Money Module Txtlink
Portal Home Pages - Impressions
33
0 10000000 20000000 30000000 40000000 50000000
AOL HP 01/10
0131 AOL HP NB
0201 AOL HP NB
0221 AOL HP 300x250
0124 AOL HP
0125 AOL HP Textlink
0221 AOL HP - Textlink
0125 AOL HP
0124 AOL HP Textlink
0201 AOL HP Textlink
0131 AOL HP Textlink
0201 AOL HP RM - Host
0131 AOL HP RM - Host
0201 AOL RM - User Initiated
0124 MSN HP Money Module Txtlink
0124 MSN HP
0207 Yahoo Marketplace - Logo + text
0131 Yahoo HP RM
0214 MSN HP
0215 MSN HP
0125 MSN HP
0201 MSN HP
0131 MSN HP
0201 MSN HP Money Module Txtlink
0131 MSN HP Money Module Txtlink
0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000
AOL HP 01/10
0131 AOL HP NB
0201 AOL HP NB
0221 AOL HP 300x250
0124 AOL HP
0125 AOL HP Textlink
0221 AOL HP - Textlink
0125 AOL HP
0124 AOL HP Textlink
0201 AOL HP Textlink
0131 AOL HP Textlink
0201 AOL HP RM - Host
0131 AOL HP RM - Host
0201 AOL RM - User Initiated
0124 MSN HP Money Module Txtlink
0124 MSN HP
0207 Yahoo Marketplace - Logo + text
0131 Yahoo HP RM
0214 MSN HP
0215 MSN HP
0125 MSN HP
0201 MSN HP
0131 MSN HP
0201 MSN HP Money Module Txtlink
0131 MSN HP Money Module Txtlink
Portal Home Pages – Distinct Converters
34
Portal Home Pages – Distinct converters per Impression
35
0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00%
AOL HP 01/10
0131 AOL HP NB
0201 AOL HP NB
0221 AOL HP 300x250
0124 AOL HP
0125 AOL HP Textlink
0221 AOL HP - Textlink
0125 AOL HP
0124 AOL HP Textlink
0201 AOL HP Textlink
0131 AOL HP Textlink
0201 AOL HP RM - Host
0131 AOL HP RM - Host
0201 AOL RM - User Initiated
0124 MSN HP Money Module Txtlink
0124 MSN HP
0207 Yahoo Marketplace - Logo + text
0131 Yahoo HP RM
0214 MSN HP
0215 MSN HP
0125 MSN HP
0201 MSN HP
0131 MSN HP
0201 MSN HP Money Module Txtlink
0131 MSN HP Money Module Txtlink
Portal Home Page – Impressions per distinct converter
36
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
AOL HP 01/10
0131 AOL HP NB
0201 AOL HP NB
0221 AOL HP 300x250
0124 AOL HP
0125 AOL HP Textlink
0221 AOL HP - Textlink
0125 AOL HP
0124 AOL HP Textlink
0201 AOL HP Textlink
0131 AOL HP Textlink
0201 AOL HP RM - Host
0131 AOL HP RM - Host
0201 AOL RM - User Initiated
0124 MSN HP Money Module Txtlink
0124 MSN HP
0207 Yahoo Marketplace - Logo + text
0131 Yahoo HP RM
0214 MSN HP
0215 MSN HP
0125 MSN HP
0201 MSN HP
0131 MSN HP
0201 MSN HP Money Module Txtlink
0131 MSN HP Money Module Txtlink
Good value?
CHANNEL INTERFERENCEAffiliate clicks versus paid search
37
Paid Search Clicks and Affiliate Clicks
38
Paid Search does not currently interact significantly with Affiliate
97%
3%
No Affiliate click before
At least one Affiliate click before
85%
15%
No Paid Search click before
At least one Paid Search click before
Paid Search Clicks and Affiliate Clicks
Number of cookies with…
0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000
Affiliate click followed by Paid Search click
Paid Search click followed by Affiliate click
Affiliate click alone
Paid Search click alone
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
Affiliate click followed by Paid Search click
Paid Search click followed by Affiliate click
Affiliate click alone
Paid Search click aloneConversion rate of cookies with…
Paid Search does not currently interact significantly with Affiliate
PRODUCT ISSUES
40
Why do people not convert?
41
Firs
t im
pres
sion
Aut
hent
icat
ion
Con
vers
ion
Awareness Pre-Conversion
Post-Conversion
Which are the problem pages?
Create alternate flows and do A/B testing
CUSTOMER BEHAVIOR
42
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Display Impression
Display Click
Paid Search Click
Affiliate Click
Email Impression
Email Click
0% 50% 100%
Display Impression
Display Click
Paid Search Click
Affiliate Click
Email Impression
Email Click
Converted on Display Click…
43
Awareness Stage Navigation Stage
1.461.921.411.431.3952.0
1.782.401.691.961.9256.5
Percentage of converters who had at least one exposure
Average number of exposures,for converters who had at least one exposure
People who convert on display click tend to stick with display clicks…
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Display Impression
Display Click
Paid Search Click
Affiliate Click
Email Impression
Email Click
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Display Impression
Display Click
Paid Search Click
Affiliate Click
Email Impression
Email Click
Converted on Paid Search Click…
44
Awareness Stage Navigation Stage
1.441.961.431.311.3426.8
1.722.151.601.871.6734.5
People who convert on paid search click tend to stick with paid search clicks…
Converted on Affiliate Click…
45
Awareness Stage Navigation Stage
1.452.041.341.371.3228.2
1.772.661.831.831.6340.5
People who convert on affiliate click tend to stick with affiliate clicks…
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Display Impression
Display Click
Paid Search Click
Affiliate Click
Email Impression
Email Clicks
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Display Impression
Display Click
Paid Search Click
Affiliate Click
Email Impression
Email Click
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Display Impression
Display Click
Paid Search Click
Affiliate Click
Email Impression
Email Click
Converted on Email Click…
46
Awareness Stage Navigation Stage
1.321.981.411.301.2823.2
1.772.661.831.831.6340.5
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Display Impression
Display Click
Paid Search Click
Affiliate Click
Email Impression
Email Click
People who convert on email click tend to stick with email clicks…
RELEVANT MESSAGING
47
Messages that are funnel aware
• Based on where the user is in the funnel we can target them with relevant messages
• This could be a better offer if they are in awareness stage or a reinforcement of value proposition if they are in navigation stage
• Doubleclick provides reach beyond the confines of the Intuit websites
• The impressions in post-conversion stage are used to cross-sell other products and hence are not wasted
48
Keys to success
• Ability to load large data volumes daily
• Complex queries that process billions of rows in minutes and not hours
• Ability to leverage intelligent messaging mechanisms within Intuit website and Doubleclick for intelligent messages across the web
49
Data Insight Action
THANK YOU
50
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