nebojsa nakicenovic

Side Event, COP23, Bonn – 15 November 2017

Nebojsa NakicenovicDeputy Director GeneralInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Professor Emeritus of Energy EconomicsVienna University of Technology

The World in 2050

Side Event, COP23, Bonn – 15 November 2017

Nebojsa NakicenovicDeputy Director GeneralInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Professor Emeritus of Energy EconomicsVienna University of Technology

The World in 2050: Grand Transformation Toward Sustainable Future for All

2017 #3Nakicenovic

Limiting global

warming to

“well below”

2 degrees celsius

Achieving net-zero

GHG emissions by mid of

the 21st century

Regular review and

improvement of nationally

determined contributions

Mobilizing $100

billion a year in

support by 2020

through 2025

TheParisAgreement

Bildq

uelle

: http

s://w

ww.w

mo.in

t/med

ia/

Source: Schellnhuber, 2016

Rockström,Gaffney,Rogelj,Meinshausen,Nakicenovic,Schellnhuber.Science24March2017

“Carbon Law”

Rockström,Gaffney,Rogelj,Meinshausen,Nakicenovic,Schellnhuber.Science24March2017

“Carbon Law”

Rockström,Gaffney,Rogelj,Meinshausen,Nakicenovic,Schellnhuber.Science24March2017

“Carbon Law”

Rockström,Gaffney,Rogelj,Meinshausen,Nakicenovic,Schellnhuber.Science24March2017

“Carbon Law”

Rockström,Gaffney,Rogelj,Meinshausen,Nakicenovic,Schellnhuber.Science24March2017

“Carbon Law”

IUCN, 2017 #9Nakicenovic Rockström

Source: Modi, 2011 and Yumkella, 2013

Wood for Cooking

IUCN, 2017 #10Nakicenovic Rockström

Source: Modi, 2011

Mobile Phones Charging

2017 #11

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

OnlyEnergySecurity OnlyAirPollutionandHealth OnlyClimateChange AllThreeObjectives

TotalG

lobalPolicyC

osts(201

0-2030)

Source: McCollum et. al, 2012; IPCC, 2014

Multiple Benefits of Integrated Policies

2017 #12Nakicenovic

2017 #13

Sankt. Petersburg Airport Duty Free

2017 #14Nakicenovic

Vision: Sustainable Future

Tran

sfor

mat

ion

Diff

usio

n

Legitimacy of BAU eroding

Source: After WBGU, 2011

The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com)“Doing More with Less” within Planetary Boundaries

2030 2050

Target space 2050+ →

← Target space 2030

One “backcasting” storyline and many transformational pathways

2017 #15Nakicenovic 15

1850 19501900 2000 2050

Source: After Granger Morgan, 2013

Transformational Change

2017 #16Nakicenovic 2017 #16Nakicenovic 16

Darum geht zu allen Völkern […] und lehrt sie alles zu befolgen was ich Euch geboten habe. Seid gewiss: Ich bin bei euch alle Tage bis ans Ende der Welt.

Disruptive Change

Source: Campanale, Carobntracker

THANK YOU

naki@iiasa.ac.at