neda presscon 17jan05v2
Post on 06-Apr-2018
224 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
-
8/3/2019 NEDA PressCon 17Jan05v2
1/20
Economic ProspectsEconomic Prospects
for 2004for 2004--20052005
Secretary Romulo L. NeriNational Economic and Development Authority
17 January 2005
-
8/3/2019 NEDA PressCon 17Jan05v2
2/20
Outlook for 2004Outlook for 2004(Growth rates, in percent)(Growth rates, in percent)
Q1-Q3 Full Year
Actual As of 22Dec 04
As of 17Jan 05
MTPDPTarget
GDP 6.5 6.1 6.2 4.9 - 5.8
Agri 6.7 5.8 5.1 4.0 - 5.0
Industry 5.2 4.8 5.5 4.4 - 5.2
Services 7.3 7.1 7.1 5.7 - 6.6
Sources: NSCB and NEDA
*as of 17 January 2005
-
8/3/2019 NEDA PressCon 17Jan05v2
3/20
Growth Indicator: MISSI Value ofGrowth Indicator: MISSI Value ofProduction & SalesProduction & Sales(Growth rate, in percent)(Growth rate, in percent)
0
5
10
15
20
25
1Q03
2Q03
3Q03
4Q03
1Q04
2Q04
3Q04
4Q04
(Oct)
VaPI
VaNet Sales
-
8/3/2019 NEDA PressCon 17Jan05v2
4/20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Q1 2003 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2004 Q2 Q3 Oct-Nov
Total Exports
Electronics
Agri-based
Mining
Growth Indicator: ExportsGrowth Indicator: Exports(Growth rate, in percent)(Growth rate, in percent)
-
8/3/2019 NEDA PressCon 17Jan05v2
5/20
Growth Indicator: ImportsGrowth Indicator: Imports(Growth rate, in percent)(Growth rate, in percent)
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Q1 2003 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12004 Q2 Q3 Oct
Total ImportsCapital GoodsRaw MaterialsConsumer goods
-
8/3/2019 NEDA PressCon 17Jan05v2
6/20
Growth Indicator: OFW RemittancesGrowth Indicator: OFW Remittances(Growth rate, in percent)(Growth rate, in percent)
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04
(Oct-
Nov)
-
8/3/2019 NEDA PressCon 17Jan05v2
7/20
Growth Indicator: Volume of TouristGrowth Indicator: Volume of TouristArrivalsArrivals
160000
165000
170000
175000
180000
185000
190000
195000
2003 2004
-
8/3/2019 NEDA PressCon 17Jan05v2
8/20
Growth Indicator: FDIGrowth Indicator: FDI
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
FY 2002 FY 2003 Q1-Q3 2004
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600Total Approved FDI (P Bil)
FDI Growth (%)
-
8/3/2019 NEDA PressCon 17Jan05v2
9/20
Growth Indicator: Building PermitsGrowth Indicator: Building Permits(Growth rate, in percent)(Growth rate, in percent)
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
2030
1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04
Value Number
-
8/3/2019 NEDA PressCon 17Jan05v2
10/20
Fiscal Performance, Emerging FY 2004Fiscal Performance, Emerging FY 2004In billion PesosIn billion Pesos
Emerging Growth Rate
(%)
FY Program
2004
Revenue 695 10.9 676.4
Expenditures 885 7.1 874.2
Deficit
as % of GDP
(190)
(3.9)
(4.9) (197.82)
(4.2)
-
8/3/2019 NEDA PressCon 17Jan05v2
11/20
Prospects for 2005Prospects for 2005
2005 2005
Assessment asof 17 Jan 05
MTPDP Target
GDP 6.3 5.3 - 6.3
Agriculture 4.2 4.2 - 5.2Industry 7.1 5.4 - 6.4
Services 6.6 5.7- 6.6
*G
rowth rates, in percent*G
rowth rates, in percent
-
8/3/2019 NEDA PressCon 17Jan05v2
12/20
2005 Growth Drivers2005 Growth Drivers
AgricultureImpact of El Nino will be mild due to governmentinterventions in irrigation and cloud seeding
Support services to increaseproduction/productivity: distribution of HYV and
certified seeds, fingerlings, and bio-agents tocontrol infestation; fertilizer subsidy program(Tipid Abono); rehabilitation of post-harvestfacilities; credit support from Agro-industryModernization Credit and Financing Program
(AMCFP) and GFIs
-
8/3/2019 NEDA PressCon 17Jan05v2
13/20
2005 Growth Assumptions2005 Growth Assumptions
Agriculture:Palay is projected to grow 3.9 percent in 2005given DAs production target of 15.2 million MT
Corn is projected to grow 9.6 percent given DAscorn production target set at 5.9 million MT
DA and LGUs to jointly fund the subsidy programfor hybrid corn and rice
-
8/3/2019 NEDA PressCon 17Jan05v2
14/20
2005 Growth Assumptions2005 Growth Assumptions
IndustryIndustry will be supported by strong growth inconstruction sector with the following majorprojects in 2005:
Northrail
Subic Clark Tarlac RoadSouth Luzon Expressway
Subic Port
Airports of Iloilo, Bacolod, and Cagayan de Oro
-
8/3/2019 NEDA PressCon 17Jan05v2
15/20
2005 Growth Assumptions2005 Growth Assumptions
Industry:Exports of services from business processingoutsourcing activities will continue to growat close to 15 percent in 2005
DTI is expecting the country to have 80,000 callcenter agents (or 40,000 seats) in 2005 from35,000 seats in 2004
-
8/3/2019 NEDA PressCon 17Jan05v2
16/20
2005 Growth Assumptions2005 Growth Assumptions
Industry:The SC ruling on the constitutionality of theMining Act is expected to revive the miningsector; resumption of operations will boost
the mining sector, while mining explorationswill support the construction and businessservices sectors
-
8/3/2019 NEDA PressCon 17Jan05v2
17/20
2005 Growth Assumptions2005 Growth Assumptions
Industry:
Mining production will be boosted by expansionin operations of PASAR and resumption ofoperations in Compostela Valley (Sabina Minesand Apex Mining)DTI reported that Chinese firms are now in talks
with some Philippine companies to revivePhilnico/Nonoc in Surigao del NorteDTI will lead a mission to China to takeadvantage of Chinese firms interest in themining industry
-
8/3/2019 NEDA PressCon 17Jan05v2
18/20
InflationInflation ProspectsProspects
Inflation is expected to decelerate in 2005 withDecember 2005 inflation down to 5 percent from8.6 percent in December 2004
Dubai oil prices are expected to remain stable in2005 with world demand and world supply in
balance (NEDA forecast assumes $34/barrel Dubaioil price and exchange rate moving in the range ofP55-57/$ or an average of P 56/$)
-
8/3/2019 NEDA PressCon 17Jan05v2
19/20
Thank YouThank You
-
8/3/2019 NEDA PressCon 17Jan05v2
20/20
9.5
7.5
4.6
6.5
5.1
6.66.4
9.1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Chin Mal Indo Phil S.Kor Taiw Thai Sing
Asian GDP(Q1-Q3 growth rate in %)
top related