neri presentation qeo spring 2016

Quarterly Economic Observer: Spring 2016

Dr Micheál Collins

NERI (Nevin Economic Research Institute)

Dublin

mcollins@NERInstitute.net

#NERIQEO

NERI launch of QEO Spring 2016

March 15th 2016, Buswells Hotel

Outline1. QEO Spring 2016

2. Economic Outlook

3. Risks

4. Regional Labour Mkts

5. Women and Low Pay

1. QEO Spring 2016• Seventeenth edition of the NERI’s QEO

• Three core parts:

o Review of recent economic trends North and South

o Economic Outlook North and South

o Focus section

• Focus on this occasion:

o Women and Low Pay in the Republic of Ireland

o Details on those who are low paid

• Personal Characteristics, Sector, household earnings

2. Economic Outlook• Progress and Uncertainty

o ongoing improvements in:

• labour market

• exports

• domestic demand

• earnings

o yet a number of risks…

o Outlook given current policies (see p19)

3. Risks

• Uncertainty:

o the weakness of the broader European and International

economies

o the forthcoming UK Brexit referendum

o the sustainability of positive benefits associated with:

• low interest rates

• low oil prices

• accommodative ECB monetary policy

• favourable exchange rates

o Possibility of political instability

4. Regional Labour Mkts

• Positive labour market developments since 2012

• Looking over the past yearo Q4 2014 – Q4 2015

• Contrast between overall performance and that in

some regions (see p10)

Map: Irish Regions Office, Brussels: http://www.iro.ie/index.shtml

• Improvement compared to our assessment last year

• Welcome

o Regional ‘Action Plans’

• Yet

o Policy implications and impacts on issues such as

population densities, housing supply in Dublin

• Implications for proposed ‘National Planning

Framework’

5. Women & Low Pay• Section 4 examines Women and Low Pay

o Why?

• One group with a high probability of low pay

o CSO data from SILC 2013

o Looking at hourly earnings data for employees

o Low Pay thresholds:

• Two-thirds of median hourly earnings (specified group)

• €11.45 per hour

Women and low pay

o Details table 4.1a and 4.1b (see p34-35)

• 60% of the low paid are women = 207,000

• Almost 3 in 10 women are low paid (men = 2 in 10)

• Across the age groups; but concentrated in under 40s

• 60% in three sectors

o Wholesale and Retail (24%)

o Accommodation and Food (19.7%)

o Health and Social Work (18.4%)

• Temporary contract: 1 in every 2 are low paid

Depth of low pay

o Average depth for female employees = €2.04 per hour

How important is low pay income?

o % of household earnings

Women and low pay

o Policy Challenges:

• New Government

• Low Pay Commission

o Not all that different to overall picture…

o Points to:

• Adequacy of pay in certain sectors

• Sustainability/stability of that employment income

• role beyond hourly rates

• barriers to work and more work

NERI

Quarterly

Economic

Observer

Spring 2016

www.NERInstitute.net#NERIQEO