new lakes in deglaciating high-mountain areas: climate-related development and challenges for...

Extreme climatic events in the Andes:

impacts and adaptation

C. Huggel

L. Angulo, P. Calanca, C. Jurt, M. Rohrer, G. Romero

N. Salzmann, E. Silvestre

January 2010 rainfall, flood and debris flow

disasters in Cusco

Repeated short-medium duration, local-

regional events

Types of extreme events

Sudden, local events:

Flash flood in Taray, Cusco Region, March 2010

Predes

Long-duration, regional events:

Cold waves in the high Andes

Predes

Glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF), Laguna

513, Carhuaz, Cordillera Blanca

Thousands of people have been killed in

such events in Peru in the past

Sudden, local-to-regional events

based on cumulative climate change related

developments in the cryosphere:

G. Kaser

C. Portocarrero 11 April 2010

• Andes-wide: DESINVENTAR: 1970 to present

• Nation-wide: SINPAD (INDECI)

Trends in extreme events?

- documentation of extremes

Alle_Ereignisse_distritos_cu_71-80

Nr_Emergencias

0

1 - 5

6 - 10

11 - 15

16 - 20

21 - 25

26 - 30

>30

Disasters 1971-1980 Cusco, on

the level of Distritos

A. Raissig

• Andes-wide: DESINVENTAR: 1970 to present

• Nation-wide: SINPAD (INDECI)

=> Consistency of documentation is critical

Disaster inventory data

Alle_Ereignisse_distritos_cu_01-08

Nr_Emergencias

0

1 - 5

6 - 10

11 - 15

16 - 20

21 - 25

26 - 30

>30

Disasters 2001-2008 Cusco, on

the level of Distritos

A. Raissig

Heavy precipitation and floods

in Cusco, January 2010

• Daily max. precip: 46 mm

• Monthly accumulated rainfall: 255 mm

• In 45 years only 3 occurrences with

daily rain >45 mm

>23,000 people

affected,

>4,500 houses

destroyed

Trends in extreme events?

- climate data

Trends in extreme rainfall events?

The 30 largest rainfall event in Cusco for 1965-2010

Deriving trends in extreme events is tricky and complex (detection)

Establish relation with climate change even more complex (attribution)

Feb rainfall distribution, Cusco, 1971-2009

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ap

r-6

5

Ap

r-6

7

Ap

r-6

9

Ap

r-7

1

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r-7

3

Ap

r-7

5

Ap

r-7

7

Ap

r-7

9

Ap

r-8

1

Ap

r-8

3

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r-8

5

Ap

r-8

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r-8

9

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r-9

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r-9

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r-9

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r-9

9

Ap

r-0

1

Ap

r-0

3

Ap

r-0

5

mm

/d

Climate indices vs impacts felt by local people

IPCC AR4, WG I

?

Climate change impact effects

Climate

Climate change

Temperature

increase

Humidity

change

Rainfall intensity

change

Biophysical

vulnerability (e.g. vegetation,

terrain, etc)

Physical

impacts

Impacts felt by local

people

Socio-economic

vulnerability (e.g. poverty,

livelihood

conditions)

Example in the high Andes

Local community of Phinaya

• at ~5000 m asl

• ~200 families

• mostly Alpaca and Vicuña farming

• highly exposed to climatic variability and extremes

Perceptions of climate change and extreme events by local people:

• cold spells have always occurred and people were prepared for them in May,

June, July, but now they occur in any moment

• less constant, predictable weather patterns than earlier

• more rain than snow

• hotter and more intense radiation (mountains are ‘less white’)

• their systems to ‘read’ the weather is today more difficult to apply

Adapt to what?

Implications for adaptation

Understand vulnerabilities and risks !

Künzler

Forms of adaptation

• autonomous adaptation

• planned adaptation

• anticipatory / proactive adaptation (IPCC)

=> a continuous iterative process!

Example of adaptation to extreme events

Early warning system for landslide and floods in

the Cordillera Central of Colombia

Knowledge on

existing risks

Monitoring and

warning service

Communication

CREPAD Ibagué

Sensor de nivel del río

Preparedness

and response

Technical component

Social component

Institutional component

Conclusions for adaptation

• Extreme events and related disasters are a complex combination of natural

and social/political/economic factors

• The consideration of the different levels of impacts and vulnerabilities is

critical for a thorough analysis

• Due to this and further problems of documentation, trends of extreme

events in the Andes are difficult to derive but nevertheless some tendencies

are probably detectable

• Due to the uncertainties involved, adaptation must be robust and effective

on different social and institutional levels

Thanks for your attention!

2005 2006 2007 2008

helada_ap_05

NR__EMERGE

0

1

2

3

4

5

• La distribución de heladas en cuatro diferentes años

• Los años 2007 y 2008 muestran heladas pronunciados

A. Raissig

sequia_ap_04

NR_EMERGEN

0

1

2

3

2004 2005 2006 2007

sequia_ap_05

NR_EMERGEN

0

1

2

3

• La distribución de sequías en cuatro diferentes años

• El año 2005 muestra una sequía pronunciado

A. Raissig