new technology lecture l07 becoming invisible

Lecture L07 BECOMING INVISIBLE

TECHNOLOGY CONSUMER

Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation

Inflection pointsWhen technology changes business

Rapid growth starts

Decline starts

Hype Curve

Wired Magazine editor (former) Chris Anderson on the Hype Curve and forecasting

The  Hype  Cycle   A  graphic  representation  of  the  maturity,  adoption  and  business  application  of  specific  technologies

NASDAQ  January  2000  

The Internet Bubble

NASDAQ  January  2000  

The Internet Bubble

NASDAQ  January  2000  

The Internet Bubble

Anderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Technology Trends

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Theory of Predicting the FutureAnderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Predicting the Future!

All important technologies go through four states, or at least four stages, in their lives. Each stage can be seen as a collision, with something else. The stages are:

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1. Critical Price 2. Critical Mass 3. Displace another technology 4. Become nearly free

The  Railway  Bubble

Railway  Stock  in  Britain  The  value  of  railway  stock  grew  4  fold  from  1826  to  1846  Many  companies,  heavy  over-­‐investment  The  bubble  burst  1846

The  Internet  Bubble

Shifting focus

TECHNOLOGY CONSUMER

Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation

  Computers  are  still  pretty  complicated  technology  

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Consumer Devices

The  Computer  and  the  Internet  

disappear

Netbooks

Price  point  is  $300  25%  of  laptop  sales  25-­‐30  million  units   in  2009

ChromebookSamsung  Chomebook  $249  !

16  GB  Solid  state  drive  100  GB  Cloud  Storage

PC sales decline by 10% but Chromebooks climb 112%

Tablets

Explosion  in  tabletsales

Consumerazion

Where  is  the  C-­‐drive?

Source: IDC http://www.technobuffalo.com/2013/05/28/tablets-to-outshippcs-idc-report/

DESIGN

As technology matures, design becomes important

Technology  Adoption  Life  Cycle

  The  talent  of  the  company  that  made  the  product  in  the  early  days  may  become  wrong  when  the  product  matures  

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  The  organisational  structure  of  companies  need  to  change  when  the  company  moves  from  technology  to  products/services  

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Organisations which design systems ... are constrained to

produce designs which are copies of the communication

structures of these organisations

Conway’s Law

To whom does the designer report to? A programmer?

Technology  

Business   Design

Technology  Life  Cycle

When  will  the  earlymajority  pragmatics start  buying  a  product?  !

The  value  of  the  productis  sufficiently  great  orgood-­‐enough

Technology  Life  Cycle   Early  in  the  cycle,  technology  is  important     When  technology  becomes  good  enough  

Value  becomes  more  important  Design  becomes  more  important  Technology  is  no  longer  the  variable  that  controls  purchases  Improvements  loose  their  glamour  !

Customers  are  looking  for  things  like  value  convenience,  productivity,  ease-­‐of-­‐use,  low-­‐cost,  reliability  !

Emotions

Life  Cycle  of  Technology   The  move  from  Technology  to  Commodity

The  need-­‐satisfaction  curve  of  technology

The  Market  of  Commodites• What  happens  when  a  market  becomes  mature?  – Karaoke  Capitalism  takes  over  • Red  oceans  – All  the  industries  in  existence  today—the  known  market  space  

– Industry  boundaries  are  defined  and  accepted,  and  the  competitive  rules  of  the  game  are  known

Creating  Blue  Oceans• Strategy  for  creating  new  markets  –Make  the  competition  irrelevant  • Blue  oceans  denote  all  the  industries  not  in  existence  today—the  unknown  market  space,  untainted  by  competition

Instead  of  focusing  on  beating  the  competition,  you  focus  on  making  the  competition  irrelevant  by  creating  a  leap  in  value  for  your  buyers  and  your  company,  thereby  opening  up  new  and  uncontested  market  space

Value Innovation