nextgen jpdo update annual ngats institute public meeting june 21, 2007 charles a. leader director,...

NextGen JPDO UpdateAnnual NGATS Institute

Public MeetingJune 21, 2007

Charles A. Leader

Director,

Jay Merkle,

Chief Architect

Joint Planning and Development Office

It’s More Than Just the Movement of People and Goods

• Aviation and Aerospace Aviation and Aerospace represent 5.4% of U.S. represent 5.4% of U.S. GDP.GDP.

• If expanded to include If expanded to include related industries, its 9% related industries, its 9% of U.S. GDP of U.S. GDP

• Contributes 11 million Contributes 11 million jobs to our economyjobs to our economy

• One Billion+ Passengers in U.S. Skies by 2015

• Potential for Triple Demand by 2025

• New Entrants Such as Very Light Jets

• Global Market Opportunities

• U.S. Travel and Tourism to Grow 4.2% Annually

All Signs Point to Continued Strong Growth

General Aviation Challenges

• Maintaining access to National Maintaining access to National AirspaceAirspace

• Preserving VFRPreserving VFR

• Limiting Equipage CostsLimiting Equipage Costs

• Limiting Restricted AirspaceLimiting Restricted Airspace

Air Taxi/VLJ Challenges

• Personal Air Travel Alliance Survey of top five Air Taxi OperatorsPersonal Air Travel Alliance Survey of top five Air Taxi Operators

– 500 VLJ’s within three years500 VLJ’s within three years

– 200-300 mile average flight200-300 mile average flight

– 18,000 – 21,000 feet altitude at 340 knots18,000 – 21,000 feet altitude at 340 knots

– Primarily secondary airport destinationsPrimarily secondary airport destinations

– Target 1000 hrs/yr operation per VLJTarget 1000 hrs/yr operation per VLJ

– Dramatic Demand growth outside legacy carrier route structureDramatic Demand growth outside legacy carrier route structure

Defense (DoD/DHS) Airspace Challenges

•13,000 aircraft fleet13,000 aircraft fleet

•Management of Air Defense Management of Air Defense Identification zonesIdentification zones

•Temporary flight restrictionsTemporary flight restrictions

•Special Use AirspaceSpecial Use Airspace

•Equipage costsEquipage costs

•Homeland Defense Homeland Defense RequirementsRequirements

Transformation Started Yesterday

Real World Improvements Being Delivered Now Transformational Building Blocks Network Enabled Operations: The Big Picture Revolutionizing Air Navigation and Surveillance

Building NextGen

ATM “view” of evolution

FY07 – 11 4DT Management

Performance-Based Ops & Services

Equivalent Visual Ops (CDTI)

Roles of Pilots & Controllers

FY19 – 25 Research for Transformed

NextGen State

Research

• Complete R&D leading to mid-term • Continue R&D that address long-term NextGen challenges • Develop & implement known & new procedures, infrastructure, technologies• Develop NextGen systems integration plan for mid-term transition to NextGen• Complete infrastructure and systems engineering for mid-term

Core Technologies, Capabilities & Sys EngEpoch 1 FY07-11

• Aircraft equipped for the mid-term & upgradeable to NextGen target• Deliver NextGen services & capabilities across domains • Complete “hard” infrastructure – airports, runways, terminals, security• Management & operating models support transition to NextGen and long-term sustainability

Mid-Term Transition to NextGenEpoch 2 FY12-18

FY12 – 18 Super Density OperationsTime-Based Surface OpsRight Sizing of Facilities

•NextGen solutions fully-integrated & operating across air transportation system•Services managed & operating in ways that achieve transformational outcomes across air transportation system

NextGen Solutions Fully Integrated & OperatingEpoch 3 FY19-25

“What”The NextGen transformed state

will be-Narrative-System Documentation

“Who, When and How”The NextGen capabilities will be

researched, developed and implemented

“Why”The NextGen investments make

sense

Concept of Operations

Enterprise Architecture

Integrated Work Plan

OMB Business Case Exhibit 300

NextGen Plan

June 2007

July 2007

Sept 2007

JPDO Product Development

NextGen Concept of Operations (ConOps)

– V2 was completed on June 13, 2007

NextGen Enterprise Architecture

– V2 to be completed by June 22, 2007

– V2 in FEA Format to be sent to OMB by the end of June

JPDO Product Development – Cont-d Integrated Work Plan

- Roadmap of operational improvements between today and full NextGen in 2025 (~ 69 ATM OIs)

- Includes development and implementation, R&D, and Policy efforts required to achieve the operational improvements

- Dependencies and critical path

- Initial Baseline is on schedule to be completed by the end of July 2007

Exhibit 300 – Business Case

- Will define the NextGen investment portfolio across all partner agencies

- Draft to be completed by June

- Final to OMB in September

JPDO Product Development – Cont-d

Supporting Capabilities

Modeling and Simulation– National Virtual Test Bed (NVTB)

• Quantifies OMB Business Case Requirements

“One-Story” Analysis– Models benefits, cost, risk– Supports safety and environmental case– Identifies Priority Areas

NGATS Institute– Funded studies of key issues

Key Capabilities:Performance-Based Operations and Services

Collaborative ATM Trajectory-based Ops.

Modernized Surface Ops. Trajectory-based Separation Management

Weather Impacted Ops. Dynamic Resource & Aerospace Management

Key Capabilities:Network Enabled Information Access

Network Enabled Operations (NEO)

Network Enabled Infrastructure (NEI)

Network Enabled Weather (NEW)

Key Capabilities:Weather Assimilated into Decision Making

Net-centric weather information is made available and understandable to all approved users

A reliable virtual, common weather picture is foundational for optimal air transportation decision-making

Presentation of weather data is tailored to user operational needs Widespread use of integrated probabilistic weather-related decision support

systems Automatic updates to users based on operational need An adaptive observing system integrating ground, airborne and spaced-based

sensors

Key Capabilities:Layered Adaptive Security

Adaptive Security for People, Cargo, Airports and Aircraft

Risk Assessment-Driven Evaluation and Response

Positive Identification for People and Cargo

Preventive Threat Detection and Mitigation

Key Capabilities:Position, Navigation and Timing Services (PNT)

Air routes are independent of the location of ground-based navigation aids

RNAV is used everywhere; RNP is used where required

System performance meets operational needs to service the demand

Increased availability of guided approaches at smaller airports*

*Mostly for general aviation with lower minimums

Key Capabilities:Aircraft Trajectory-Based Operations

Services and Operations based on precise trajectory execution

Self-Separation Services

Flow Corridors

Super Density Arrival/Departure Airspace

Key Capabilities:Equivalent Visual Operations

Improved information availability which allows aircraft operations without regard to visibility Access to PNT enables increased accessibility for airport surface and arrival/departure

operations Enables more predictable and efficient operations regardless of meteorological conditions

Key Capabilities:Super Density Operations

Use of RNP operations and procedures

Mitigation of wake vortex constraints

Improved runway incursion prevention algorithms

Automatic distribution of runway braking action reports

Distribution of taxi instructions before landing

Use of aircraft sensors

Benefits of End-State NextGenPhase of Flight Flight Situation Flight Time

ReductionTotal Dollar

Savings per YearPortion of

Savings Due To Fuel

Surface-Taxi out and Taxi-in

Small Airports

Large Airports

30 seconds

2 minutes

$328 million

$1.3 billion

$79 million

$315 million

Terminal area, including

departure, landing

Small Airports, Good Wx

Large Airports, Bad Wx

10 minutes

30 minutes

$6.5 billion

$19.7 billion

$1.6 billion

$4.7 billion

Enroute (cruise phase)

Good Weather

Severe Weather

10 minutes

20 minutes

$6.5 billion

$13.1 billion

$1.6 billion

$3.1 billion

Based upon FAA estimates of $2,736/hour of airline direct operating costs, includes variable (fuel is assumed to cost $722/hour) and fixed costs (such as depreciation), and $1,090/hour of general aviation direct operating costs (GA fuel is assumed to cost $114/hour).

Assumes 36,000 airline flights/day, 16,000 general aviation IFR flights/day.

Assumes all flights accrue the benefits. Benefits across flight phases are not additive due to overlapping assumptions and correlation.

Source of cost data: GRA Inc., “Economic Values for FAA Investment and Regulatory Decisions, a Guide,” FAA APO, December 2004.

NextGen Implementation Status

Initiate Trajectory-based Operations

Increase Arrivals/Departures at High Density Airports

Increase Flexibility in the Terminal Environment

Improve Collaborative ATM

Reduce Weather Impact

Increase Safety, Security, and Environmental Performance

Transform Facilities

ADS-B - Implement 1st segment of advanced surveillance & broadcast services to deliver en-route, terminal, & surface surveillance data from key sites via broadcast comm. link

FY07 FY09

SWIM - Implement 1st set of data exchange services using net-centric technology and architecture to supportincrease shared situational awareness

NNEW – Demonstrate inter-agencyWx Dissemination Mgmt capabilities toIntegrate effective Wx info into Operational decision-making

DataComm – Develop architecture to transform from a voice-only comm. to an air-ground data comm. capability

Demos & Infrastructure -Perform formal demos that advance R&D, operational conceptsand key infrastructure

FY08

Funded Commitments Mid-Term Capabilities

2012 - 2018

NASA programs• Aviation Safety• Airspace Systems• Fundamental Aeronautics

2019-2025

Progress NextGen Concept of Operations and Enterprise Architecture to be

base-lined June 2007

Integrated Work Plan baseline and Business Case (E-300) to be completed this summer

FAA initial system changes underway (infrastructure and initial applications)

– ADS-B– SWIM– DataCom– Voice Switch– Demonstrations

FAA mid-term plan in development (Operational Evolution Partnership)

NASA research aligned (long-term transformation)

Near-term interagency initiatives:– NextGen Network-enabled Weather Joint Program Office, Safety

Management System, Net-centric Information System

Challenges

Achieving Integration

Pace of Implementation

Overcoming Technical Hurdles

Changing Policy and Culture

Achieving Global Harmonization

www.jpdo.gov

Backup

The Cost of NextGen

• JPDO has reviewed several initial outside JPDO has reviewed several initial outside estimates:estimates: – FAA’s Research, Engineering and Development FAA’s Research, Engineering and Development

Advisory Committee (REDAC)Advisory Committee (REDAC)– MITRE Avionics EstimateMITRE Avionics Estimate– FAA’s Air Traffic Organization (ATO)FAA’s Air Traffic Organization (ATO)

• The First Five Years -The First Five Years - $4.6 billion$4.6 billion::– $4.3 billion in ATO capital appropriation$4.3 billion in ATO capital appropriation

– and $300 million in research, engineering, and and $300 million in research, engineering, and development.development.

The Cost Of NextGen – cont-d

• Our Partner Agencies:Our Partner Agencies:– In FY08 our partner agencies are investing a total of In FY08 our partner agencies are investing a total of

about $300 million in NextGen, primarily in R&D.about $300 million in NextGen, primarily in R&D.

• Longer-Term Cost Estimates:Longer-Term Cost Estimates:– Next 10 years $8-10 billionNext 10 years $8-10 billion– End-state or through 2025 $15-22 billionEnd-state or through 2025 $15-22 billion

• Avionics costsAvionics costs = $14-20 billion= $14-20 billion

NextGen Evolution

NextGen PlanNextGen Plan

Epoch 1Epoch 1 Epoch 2Epoch 2 Epoch 3Epoch 3

JPDOPlanning &Oversight

AgenciesImplementation

Develop

Reduce Risk

Research

Operate

Develop

Reduce Risk

Operate

Develop

Alig

nm

ent

Feed

back

Alig

nm

ent

Feed

back

Alig

nm

ent

Feed

back

NextGen

NextGen Planprovides mechanism

for alignment and oversight

Phased Implementation

to manage risk andensure intermediate

benefits

NEAR MID LONG

Epoch 1 – Near TermEpoch 1 – Near TermCore Infrastructure, Initial Applications, & Systems Engineering

Epoch 2 – Mid TermEpoch 2 – Mid TermMid-Term Transition to Primary NextGen Operations

Epoch 3 – Long TermEpoch 3 – Long TermNextGen Solutions Fully Integrated - Transformation Complete

Figure 2‑2. ATM Decisions—Interactive and Integrated Across Time Horizons

Figure 2‑3. Airspace Hierarchy

Figure 2‑5. Collaborative ATM Among ANSP & Operators

Figure 2‑6. Elements of a Four-Dimensional Trajectory

Figure 2‑7. Flow Corridors

Figure 2‑8. Super-Density Terminal Operations

DoD Interests and Risks• Operations

• Global access and compatibility • Airspace access for test, training and readiness (continuing,

reliable access Special Use Airspace resources)• UAS integration, access• Net-Enabled Information Sharing (NEIS) policy and architecture

for compatibility in NextGen

• Air Security• Air Domain Surveillance and Intelligence Integration • Air Defense

• Acquisition/Resources • Fleet (incl. UAS) certification and equipage• Integration, planning & investment for Deployable Air Traffic

Control & Landing Systems (ATCALS, including shipboard systems)

• Expertise & investments offer a leveraging tool for furthering NextGen design and implementation

Bottom Line: NextGen will impact the way the DoD plans, funds and flies domestically and

globally