nine potential $100 billion weather disasters of the next 30 years dr. jeff masters director of...

Nine Potential $100 Billion Weather Nine Potential $100 Billion Weather Disasters of the Next 30 YearsDisasters of the Next 30 Years

Nine Potential $100 Billion Weather Nine Potential $100 Billion Weather Disasters of the Next 30 YearsDisasters of the Next 30 Years

Dr. Jeff MastersDr. Jeff MastersDirector of Meteorology Director of Meteorology The Weather Underground, Inc.The Weather Underground, Inc.http://www.wunderground.comhttp://www.wunderground.com

Dr. Jeff MastersDr. Jeff MastersDirector of Meteorology Director of Meteorology The Weather Underground, Inc.The Weather Underground, Inc.http://www.wunderground.comhttp://www.wunderground.com

Education: Education: University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan

B.S. in Meteorology, 1982B.S. in Meteorology, 1982

M.S. in Meteorology, 1983M.S. in Meteorology, 1983 Thesis:Thesis: “A Characterization of the Detroit Wintertime Aerosol”“A Characterization of the Detroit Wintertime Aerosol”

Ph.D. in Meteorology, 1997 Ph.D. in Meteorology, 1997 Thesis: “Vertical Transport of Carbon Monoxide by Thesis: “Vertical Transport of Carbon Monoxide by Wintertime Mid-Latitude Cyclones”Wintertime Mid-Latitude Cyclones”

Me

Rank Disaster Year Deaths Damage (2007 dollars)

1. Hurricane Katrina, LA/MS/AL/FL 2005 1200 $133,800,000,000

2. Midwest/Eastern Drought 1988 7,500 $71,200,000,000

3. Midwest/Eastern Drought 1980 10,000 $55,400,000,000

4. Hurricane Andrew, FL/LA 1992 26 $40,000,000,000

5. Midwest Floods 1993 48 $30,200,000,000

6. Hurricane Ike, TX/LA/MS 2008 112 $27,000,000,000

7. Hurricane Wilma, FL 2005 35 $17,100,000,000

8. Hurricane Rita, LA/TX 2005 119 $17,100,000,000

9. Hurricane Charley, FL 2004 15 $16,322,000,000

10. Midwest Floods 2008 24 $15,000,000,000

11. Hurricane Ivan, FL/AL 2004 57 $15,400,000,000

12. 30-State Drought 2002 0 $11,400,000,000

$10 billion+ U.S. Weather Disasters Since 1980$10 billion+ U.S. Weather Disasters Since 1980

Theory says to expect a 5% increase in hurricane winds per degree C of ocean warming (Emanuel, 2005).

• Expected increase in SST by 2100: 1 - 2 degrees C.

• Hurricane wind speeds should increase by 5 -10%, resulting in 1.5 - 3 times more wind damage than now.

• Hurricane rains should increase by 20%, causing much higher river flood damages.

• Storm surge damage increases by 102% - 200% for a 3-foot rise in sea level (FEMA, 1991).

Climate Change is Expected to Increase Hurricane DamagesClimate Change is Expected to Increase Hurricane Damages

9) Galveston/Houston Hurricane9) Galveston/Houston HurricaneProbability: 30%Probability: 30%

1900 Galveston Hurricane damage

8) New Orleans Hurricane8) New Orleans HurricaneProbability: 40%Probability: 40%

New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, 2005

7) Miami Hurricane7) Miami HurricaneProbability: 50%Probability: 50%

Miami Beach, 1926 HurricaneMiami Beach, 1926 Hurricane

Tropical Storm Irene over New York City, August 28, 2011Tropical Storm Irene over New York City, August 28, 2011

6) New York City Hurricane6) New York City HurricaneProbability: 20%Probability: 20%

New York's LaGuardia Airport after the November 25, 1950 Nor'easterNew York's LaGuardia Airport after the November 25, 1950 Nor'easter

PATH Train Station in Hoboken, NJ during the December 12, 1992 Nor’easter

What do we do about the increasingWhat do we do about the increasingstorm surge problem?storm surge problem?

Rhode Island Yacht Club during Hurricane Carol, 1954Rhode Island Yacht Club during Hurricane Carol, 1954Rhode Island Yacht Club during Hurricane Carol, 1954Rhode Island Yacht Club during Hurricane Carol, 1954

7.6 meter Providence, Rhode Island Storm Surge Barrier7.6 meter Providence, Rhode Island Storm Surge Barrier

Build storm surge barriers!Build storm surge barriers!Build storm surge barriers!Build storm surge barriers!

Proposed New York City storm surge barrierProposed New York City storm surge barrier

Arcadis, Inc

5) Midwest Drought5) Midwest DroughtProbability: 50%Probability: 50%

Texas drought, 2011Texas drought, 2011

A $100 billion, 1-in-100-year U.S. droughtwould seriously strain world food prices

June 4, 2004 levee breach in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River DeltaJune 4, 2004 levee breach in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta

4) California ARkSTORM Flood4) California ARkSTORM FloodProbability: 20%Probability: 20%4) California ARkSTORM Flood4) California ARkSTORM FloodProbability: 20%Probability: 20%

Old River Control Structure on the LA/MS border at normal waterOld River Control Structure on the LA/MS border at normal water

3) Lower Mississippi Flood causes failure of 3) Lower Mississippi Flood causes failure of the Old River Control Structurethe Old River Control StructureProbability: 20%Probability: 20%

Mississippi River has changed course hundreds of times in historyMississippi River has changed course hundreds of times in history

Interruption of Mississippi barge traffic to the nation's 1st, 6th, Interruption of Mississippi barge traffic to the nation's 1st, 6th, 11th, and 14th busiest ports. Cost: $300 million per day.11th, and 14th busiest ports. Cost: $300 million per day.

Loss of 60% of U.S. grain exports. Loss of 60% of U.S. grain exports.

Interruption of 57 million tons per year of crude oil, chemicals, Interruption of 57 million tons per year of crude oil, chemicals, steel, concrete, fertilizers, rubber, plywood, etc. moving upriver. steel, concrete, fertilizers, rubber, plywood, etc. moving upriver.

Inundation of 11% of Louisiana. Likely destruction of Morgan Inundation of 11% of Louisiana. Likely destruction of Morgan City (population 12,000) City (population 12,000)

No fresh water for: No fresh water for: - One million people, including all of New Orleans - One million people, including all of New Orleans - Oil refineries that supply 14% of U.S. oil - Oil refineries that supply 14% of U.S. oil - Natural gas refineries that produce over 20% of U.S. natural gas - Natural gas refineries that produce over 20% of U.S. natural gas - Petrochemical plants supplying over 20% of U.S. petrochemicals- Petrochemical plants supplying over 20% of U.S. petrochemicals

Costs of Old River Control Structure FailureCosts of Old River Control Structure Failure

2) Catastrophic Geomagnetic Storm2) Catastrophic Geomagnetic StormProbability: 30%Probability: 30%

X-22 Class Solar Flare of April 2, 2001—Strongest Solar Flare on RecordX-22 Class Solar Flare of April 2, 2001—Strongest Solar Flare on Record

Transformer at Salem Nuclear Plantfried by geomagnetic storm in 1989Transformer at Salem Nuclear Plantfried by geomagnetic storm in 1989

A geomagnetic storm like the Carrington Event of 1859 or the 1921 storm A geomagnetic storm like the Carrington Event of 1859 or the 1921 storm would likely cause a collapse of the U.S. power system lasting yearswould likely cause a collapse of the U.S. power system lasting years

1)1) Limited nuclear exchange of 100 nuclear Limited nuclear exchange of 100 nuclear weapons causes Nuclear Winterweapons causes Nuclear Winter

Probability: Not zeroProbability: Not zero

Atomic bomb blast over Nagasaki, Japan, 1945Atomic bomb blast over Nagasaki, Japan, 1945

Hunting Hugo:The Hurricane Hunters’ Wildest RideHunting Hugo:The Hurricane Hunters’ Wildest Ride

Dr. Jeff MastersChief MeteorologistThe Weather Underground, Inc.

Served as Flight Meteorologist for NOAA’sServed as Flight Meteorologist for NOAA’sAircraft Operations Center, 1986 - 1990Aircraft Operations Center, 1986 - 1990

•Correction of Inertial Navigation with Loran-C on NOAA's P-3 AircraftCorrection of Inertial Navigation with Loran-C on NOAA's P-3 Aircraft•A Record Minimum Sea Level Pressure Observed in Hurricane GilbertA Record Minimum Sea Level Pressure Observed in Hurricane Gilbert•Wind Measurement From AircraftWind Measurement From Aircraft•Flying Into the Eye of a HurricaneFlying Into the Eye of a Hurricane•Meteorology at BrockportMeteorology at Brockport

Publications:Publications:

Tail Doppler RadarTail Doppler Radar

Gust Probe for high-resolution wind measurementsGust Probe for high-resolution wind measurements

Cloud physics probesCloud physics probes

2-D cross sections of snow2-D cross sections of snow

Alaska Storms Project, 1987Alaska Storms Project, 1987

Experiment on Rapidly Intensifying Cyclones Experiment on Rapidly Intensifying Cyclones in the Atlantic (ERICA), 1988 - 1989in the Atlantic (ERICA), 1988 - 1989

Coordinated East Arctic Research ExperimentCoordinated East Arctic Research Experiment(CEAREX), 1989(CEAREX), 1989

Hurricane Hugo on MontserratHurricane Hugo on Montserrat

Hurricane Hugo on St. Croix and Puerto RicoHurricane Hugo on St. Croix and Puerto Rico

El Yunque Rain Forest, Puerto RicoEl Yunque Rain Forest, Puerto Rico

Sullivan’s Island Bridge, South CarolinaSullivan’s Island Bridge, South Carolina

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