norway high speed rail michael hayes project director contract 5: market analysis

Norway High Speed Rail

Michael HayesProject Director

Contract 5: Market Analysis

Phase 2: Market Analysis

1. What is the potential market for HSR?

2. How many people would use HSR (and how much revenue) for different options?

3. Where should stations be situated and what facilities should they have?

4. How much freight could use the line?

Using experience from across Europe

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1. Potential Market for High Speed Rail

Analysis to understand potential market:

● Existing air, road and rail markets

● Improving access to tourist destinations?

● Better access to Gardermoen Airport?

Compare with international experience

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1. Potential Market for High Speed Rail

Oslo – Stavanger Air: 1.2m pass/yrRail: 0.3m pass/yrRoad: 1m trips/yr

Oslo – Kristiansand Air: 0.5m pass/yrRail: 0.4m pass/yrRoad: 2.6m trips/yr

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1. Potential Market for High Speed Rail

Oslo – Bergen Air: 1.5m pass/yrRail: 0.6m pass/yrRoad: 1.3m trips/yr

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1. Potential Market for High Speed Rail

Oslo – Trondheim Air: 1.5m pass/yrRail: 0.4m pass/yrRoad: 1.4m trips/yr

Oslo – Stockholm:Air dominant (0.7m pass/yr)

Oslo – Gothenburg:Road dominant (waiting data)

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1. Potential Market for High Speed Rail

European experience:

● HSR captures air markets well, road markets less so.

Route Distance (km)

Fastest Journey Time (hr:min)

Rail Service Frequency (per day)

Approximate HSR Market Share

Paris - Marseille 750 3:03 19 65%

London - Paris 495 2:15 16 70%

Cologne - Frankfurt

186 1:02 29 95%

Madrid - Seville 472 2:20 22 80%

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2. Estimating HSR usage

● Assess cost of travelling by each mode

● How do people value different modes?

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2. Estimating HSR usage

Many fundamental questions in forecasting:

● How willing are passengers to pay to save travel time?

● How important are frequency, reliability and station access?

● What impact does group size have on choice of travel?

● Would HSR inherently generate new demand for travel?

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2. Estimating HSR usage

Also need to understand attitudes to HSR:

● Do business travellers value ability to work on trains rather than planes?

● Would amount of tunnels affect leisure market?

● Is reliability an important factor?

● Do people inherently value travelling by HSR more than by plane?

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2. Estimating HSR usage

Market survey exercise being undertaken

● Surveys to understand attitudes for different types of travellers

● Economic analysis to produce forecasting models

● Supplement with sensitivity tests

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3. Station Location and Facilities

Stavanger

Population within 15 minutes

Oslo

Kristiansand

● How many intermediate stations?

● Where should they be?

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3. Station Location and Facilities

● Are the existing stations in the right place?

● What kind of facilities do they require?

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4. Freight

● Is there demand for high speed freight?

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4. Freight

● Could any HSR route carry normal freight trains?

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Michael HayesHead of Rail Planning

Euston Tower, 286 Euston RoadLONDON NW1 3ATUnited Kingdom

Tel: +44 (0) 20 7121 2388Mobile: +44 (0)7857 981 343

Email: michael.hayes@atkinsglobal.com

www.atkinsglobal.com