ns 435 unit 2: impact of ecological changes on agriculture lei wang, ph.d

NS 435 NS 435 Unit 2:Unit 2:Impact of Ecological ChangesImpact of Ecological Changeson Agricultureon Agriculture

Lei Wang, Ph.D.

OutlineOutline

How Ecological Changes Affect Agriculture/Food Production?

Short-Term Effects Long-Term Effects

How Modern Agriculture Impacts the Climate?

Alternative Solutions/Opportunities?

Food for ThoughtFood for Thought

According to Siikamaki, (2006) “Agriculture is frequently discussed in the context of climate change: not only is agriculture vulnerable to climate change, it is also part of the problem and its potential solutions.”

-Siikamaki, Juha. (2006). Climate Change and U.S. Agriculture. Examining the Connections. Environment, pg(s). 36-49.

Climate ContextClimate Context

According to Peter Backlund from NCAR, “Human activities have altered the global climate.During the 20th century, the global average surface T increased 0.6 C and global sea level increased 15 to 20 cm.”

-Backlund, P., Janetos, A., and Schimel, D. Executive Summary: The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity, pages 1-10.

Climate ContextClimate Context

“… human influences will continue to change Earth’s climate throughout the 21st century. The global average T will rise another 1.1 to 5.4 C by 2100. Which will result in continued increases in sea level and overall rainfall.”

-Backlund, P., Janetos, A., and Schimel, D. Executive Summary: The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity, pages 1-10.

Examples of Ecological FactorsExamples of Ecological Factors

Temperature

Precipitation

CO2 concentrations

Water availability

Change in pest populations, plant

diseases, and weeds.

How May Ecological ChangesHow May Ecological ChangesAffect Agriculture/Food Production?Affect Agriculture/Food Production?

Drought/Flooding: (extreme weather events)◦Soil moisture/erosion, evaporation

Water pollution (i.e. agricultural run-off)Heat Stress w/ rising temps– crops,

livestockPollution levels (soil & H20)

How May Ecological ChangesHow May Ecological ChangesAffect Agriculture/Food Production?Affect Agriculture/Food Production?

Increased pests, disease, weedsSome crops more sensitive to rising temps

(tomatoes– e.g.)Altered Food Webs (e.g. polluted waters-

marine food webs)

Short-Term Effects of Climate Change Short-Term Effects of Climate Change on Agricultureon Agriculture

Some crops– may improve growing conditions- however, with continued temp increase (esp. Southern regions) some crops may not adapt.

- Northern regions may benefit most (since tend to be cooler.) e.g. longer growing season opportunity.

-- Possible to grow new crops/different crops.

Long Term Effects & Climate ChangeLong Term Effects & Climate Change

Long-term effects of climate change are not fully understood.

Difficult to predict.

Earth’s Future ClimateEarth’s Future Climate

A vast majority of climate scientists agree that Earth will warm along with increasing greenhouse gases. However, the effects will be far more varied than a simple and uniform warming over the entire planet.

Earth’s Future ClimateEarth’s Future Climate

Translate temperature changes from a model into trends that affect people's everyday lives. A 2004 NCAR study found that, by the period 2080-99, American and European heat waves will be more severe, frequent, and long-lasting.

Earth’s Future ClimateEarth’s Future Climate

Another related study found that frost days will decline in many parts of the globe by 2080-99. The largest decreases are projected across the northwest parts of Europe and North America.

Such a change would affect agriculture and tourism as well as natural ecosystems.

How Modern AgricultureHow Modern AgricultureImpacts the ClimateImpacts the Climate

GHG emissions (burning of fossil fuels, manure, food transportation– e.g.)

Significant user of H20 resources.Significant user of land resources.

How Modern AgricultureHow Modern AgricultureImpacts the ClimateImpacts the Climate

Livestock– methane emissionsFactory Farming- e.g. (produce large

amount of GHG)

Alternative Solutions/Opportunities?Alternative Solutions/Opportunities?

GMO’s– e.g. resistant to drought/floodingNew, more tolerant cropsMore irrigation, water storageAgriculture & Forests = GHG “sinks”

Alternative Solutions/Opportunities?Alternative Solutions/Opportunities?

Methane capture “tanks”Increase irrigation efficiencyFocus on locally produce foods– e.g.

Farmers MarketsImproved fertilization practices– e.g.

timing

ReferencesReferences

Backlund, P., Janetos, A., and Schimel, D. Executive Summary: The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land

Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity, pages 1-10.-Retrieved from:http://www.usda.gov/oce/global_change/files/SAP4_3/ExecSummary.pdf Siikamaki, Juha. (2006). Climate Change and U.S. Agriculture:

Examining the Connections. Environment, pgs. 36-49.- Retrieved from:http://kucourses.com/ec/courses/24739/CRS-NS435-3407037/Unit_2_Climate_Change_and_US_Agriculture.pdf

Earth’s Future Climate: http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/research/climate/future.php