nws synopsis of 2017 hurricanes harvey, irma, and maria … · 3 objectives hurricane harvey, irma,...

1

Victor Hom

Forecast Services Division

Water Resources Services Branch

National Weather Service

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Email: victor.hom@noaa.gov

Association of State Floodplain Managers

Phoenix, Arizona

Session A4 1030AM - June 19, 2018

NWS Synopsis of 2017 Hurricanes

Harvey, Irma, and Maria

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N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

National Weather Service

Greg Waller

Water Gulf River Forecast Center

Southern Region

National Weather Service

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Email: greg.waller@noaa.gov

2

Extremely Active 2017

Atlantic Hurricane Season•17 Named

Storms

•10 Hurricanes

• 6 Major

Hurricanes (Category 3, 4, 5)

o2 Major Hurricanes

to Strike Continental

US in 12 years

o1 Major Hurricanes

Devastating Puerto

Rico

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Source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/

H

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Objectives

Hurricane Harvey, Irma, and Maria

• Genesis, Development, and Formation

• NOAA NWS Products and Services

• Review Significant Wind-Water Impacts

• Share References to key NOAA

websites

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(l.ead.me/bauwei)

4

Hurricane Harvey

17 August to 1 September 2017•Tropical Storm

before 00Z Aug

18th.

•Weakened

storm Aug 19th

to 23rd.

•Return to

Tropical Storm

on Aug 23rd.

•Hurricane on

Aug 24th

•Major Hurricane

late on 25th.

Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/HARVEY_graphics.php

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Hurricane Harvey Makes Landfalls

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https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/content/noaa-satellite-imagery-hurricane-harvey

•1st Landfall on

northern end of San

Jose Island 5 n mi

east of Rockport, TX

at 03Z Sat. Aug 26th.

• Category 4 on Saffir-

Simpson Scale

•Sustained winds115 kt

• Minimum central

pressure of 937 mb

•2nd Landfall 3 hrs later

6

Hurricane Harvey – Wind

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https://www.weather.gov/crp/hurricane_harvey

• Cove Harbor and

Tx-35 at

Rockport, Texas

• Damaged Boat

Storage Facility

7

Hurricane Harvey – Spawned Tornadoes

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• 24 tornadoes were

confirmed

• Many of the

tornadoes were

generally small,

but even small

tornadoes can

cause significant

damage.

• EF 1 Damaged

Trees in

Matagorda County

http://arcg.is/2rRdmWv

https://www.weather.gov/crp/hurricane_harvey

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Hurricane Harvey – Storm Surge

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https://www.weather.gov/crp/hurricane_harvey

• Storm surge up to

12.5 feet

• Aransas National

Wildlife Refuge,

San Antonio and

Lavaca Bays

severely impacted

9Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature

https://www.weather.gov/lch/2017harvey

Hurricane Harvey 40+ Inches of Rainfall

over Greater Houston

10Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/news/sep17/hurricane-harvey.html

Hurricane Harvey - Floods

•Parklake Village in University

Park West - Katy, TX

• Mason Creek – Tributary of

Upper Buffalo Bayou

During Harvey, 127 Flash Flood

Warnings were issued over 4 days.

11Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/news/sep17/hurricane-harvey.html

Hurricane Harvey– Combined Runoff

•Parklake Village in

University Park

West Section of

Houston, TX

• Flooding in and

around I-10 west of

the community

Lynchburg TX

•I-10 west near Lynchburg TX

•Confluence of San Jacinto and

Buffalo Bayou

12Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/hurricaneharvey

Hurricane Harvey – Record Flooding in

Southeast Texas

• 67 River Forecast

Locations in

Southeast Texas.

• 60/67 (approx. 90%)

reached flood stage.

Approximately 69%,

• 46/67 (approx. 69%)

reached major flood

stage, and

• 31/67 (approx. 46%)

crested at record

levels.Orange – Minor, Red – Moderate, Purple – Major Flood

13Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature

https://www.weather.gov/lch/2017harvey

Hurricane Harvey 60+ Inches of Rainfall

• MRMS QPE

- 25 Aug to

1 Sept 2017

• 60.58” near

Nederland,

TX

• 60.54”

Groves, TX

• Jefferson

County TX

40”; Orange

County TX

30-50”.

14Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature

https://www.weather.gov/lch/2017harvey

Hurricane Harvey Numbers• First category 4 to make

landfall in the U.S. since 2004

• 31 of 67 NWS river forecast

locations in impacted area set

flood records

• NWS issued over 300 flood-

related warnings

• 68 deaths directly attributed

(65 flood deaths)

• Approximately 400,000 vehicles

destroyed

• Nearly 300,000 homes

damaged and over 16,000

homes declared destroyedFive-day observed rainfall analysis from 7 a.m., Friday,

August 25–30. Source: NOAA

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Hurricane Irma

30 August to 12 September 2017•TD 00Z Aug30th

•Strengthened to

TS ~6 hrs later

on Aug 30th.

•Hurricane on

Aug 31st 06Z.

•Developing into

Major Hurricane

00Z Sep 1-3.

•Sustained Major

Hurricane ‘til FL

on 00Z Sep 11

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https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php

TD – Tropical Depression; TS – Tropical Storm

Irma made landfall as cat 5 on

Barbuda around 06Z Sep 6

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Hurricane Irma

Eye on Florida

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Source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112017_Irma.pdf

•Maximum winds

of 185 mph

•Strongest storm

on record in the

Atlantic Ocean

outside of the

Caribbean and

Gulf of Mexico.

•Cat. 5 for 3 days

Longest world

recorded cyclone

to maintain that

type of intensity

Hurricane Irma Infrared Satellite Loop From

September 10th, 2017

17Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature

https://www.weather.gov/media/mlb/PNS_91717.pdf

Hurricane Irma Tornadoes

•The tornado strengthened into

EF-2 intensity with estimated

wind speeds of 115 to 125 mph

and affected homes on Kilbee

St, Turnbull, and Brevard Rd.

21 Confirmed

Tornadoes in

Florida and 4

in South

Carolina

18Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/news/sep17/hurricane-irma.html

Hurricane Irma Wind and Waves

Boats

•Boats washed ashore, Sand, Debris, Homes Ruined, Off Foundations

Key Largo, FL

19Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112017_Irma.pdf

Hurricane Irma Storm Surge

•6 -10 ft

AGL SW

FL; 3-5 ft

AGL NE FL

• USGS

storm tide

sensor

Everglades

City - 8.31

ft NAVD88

~ 7.5 ft

MHHW

USGS storm sensor deployment for IRMA: https://stn.wim.usgs.gov/FEV/#IrmaSeptember2017

Above Ground

Level (AGL)

20Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature

https://www.weather.gov/media/serfc/alert/SERFC_DOSM_Sep_11.pdf

Hurricane Irma Rainfall and FloodingRainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches

common across FL and the Keys

St. John’s River in downtown

Jacksonville Record Flooding

21Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112017_Irma.pdf

Hurricane Irma USA Impacts

In United States,

10 direct, 82

indirect, and 77

deaths in FL.

Hundreds more

injured before,

during, or after

the hurricane.

6 million

residents in

Florida were

evacuated from

coastal areas.

Cars inundated by

floodwaters.

22Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112017_Irma.pdf

Hurricane Irma Devastating Impacts

47 direct deaths due to strong winds, heavy rains, and high

surf (Caribbean Islands and the southeastern USA).

Majority of the causalities were in the Caribbean Islands,

where winds were the strongest.

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•TD 12Z Sep16th

•Strengthened to

TS ~6 hrs later

on Sep 16th

•Hurricane on

Sep 17th.

•Major Hurricane

on 12Z Sep 18th

•Major Hurricane

with max winds

~135 kt onto PR

11Z Sep 20th

Hurricane Maria

16 -30 September 2017

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https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/MARIA_graphics.php

24Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature

https://coast.noaa.gov/states/fast-facts/weather-disasters.html

Hurricane Maria Facts

• First category 5 hurricane

ever to make landfall in

Dominica.

• Strongest hurricane to

make landfall in Puerto

Rico since 1928

• Deadliest of 2017’s three

major storm.

25Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL152017_Maria.pdf

Hurricane Maria Winds

Winds ~167

mph Dominica

00Z Sep 19th

~155 mph PR

11Z Sep 20th

Heavy Rain:

Max of 22.8 in.

in Dominica;

Storm Total

~38 in. in

Puerto Rico

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Hurricane Waves and Storm Surge

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https://www.weather.gov/sju/maria2017

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/

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Hurricane Maria

Heavy Rainfall and Flooding

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https://www.weather.gov/sju/maria2017

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Hurricane Maria

Extreme Flooding and Washouts

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https://www.weather.gov/sju/maria2017

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Hurricane Maria Landslides

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https://www.weather.gov/sju/maria2017

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2017 Hurricane Season

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victor.hom@noaa.gov greg.waller@noaa.gov

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHm7oh0Yn60

(l.ead.me/bauwei)