oecd/iea 2012 tapping technologys potential to secure a clean energy future ms. maria van der hoeven...
Post on 18-Jan-2018
224 Views
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
© OECD/IEA 2012
Tapping technology’s potential to secure a clean energy future
Ms. Maria van der HoevenExecutive DirectorInternational Energy AgencyHelsinki, 31 August 2012
Key messages
1. Sustainable energy future is still feasible and technologies exist to take us there
2. Despite potential of technologies, progress is too slow at the moment
3. A clean energy future requires systemic thinking and deployment of a variety of technologies
4. It even makes financial sense to do it!5. Government policy is decisive in unlocking the
potential
Energy demand and emissions have doubled in the past 40 years
From 6000 Mtoe to 12 000 Mtoe Rapid demand growth outside OECD
Source: IEA statistics
CO2 emissions from 14Gt to 30Gt Since 2005, non-OECD countries
emit more than OECD
ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures
© OECD/IEA 2012
6DSwhere the world is now heading with potentially devastating results
The 6°C Scenario
4DSreflecting pledges by countries to cut emissions and boost energy efficiency
The 4°C Scenario
2DSa vision of a sustainable energy system of reduced Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and CO2 emissions
The 2°C Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2012
ETP2012: need to cut CO2 by 50% by 2050
To achieve ambitious climate goals, the world needs to cut energy-related CO2 emissions by 50% from today’s levels…
…but as populations grow and growth in energy consumption is inevitable, the reduction challenge is even higher: gap of 24-42 Gt in 2050
Clean energy: slow lane to fast track
© OECD/IEA 2012
Progress is too slow in almost all technology areas
Significant action is required to get back on track
Energy RD&D has slipped in priority
© OECD/IEA 2012
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
5
10
15
20
25
1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Shar
e of
ene
rgy R
D&D
in to
tal R
&D
USD
billi
on
Energy efficiency Fossil fuels
Renewable energy Nuclear
Hydrogen and fuel cells Other power and storage technologies
Other cross cutting technologies/research Share of energy RD&D in total R&D
0
1
2
3
4
Braz
ilCh
ina
Indi
aM
exic
oRu
ssia
Sout
h Af
rica
USD
billi
on
2008 non-IEA country spending
© OECD/IEA 2012
A smart, sustainable energy system
© OECD/IEA 2012
A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system
© OECD/IEA 2012
Renewables need to dominate EU electricity
Renewables cover two-thirds of the electricity mix in 2050 in the 2DS, with wind power alone reaching a share of 30% in the mix.
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
4DS 2DS
2009 2050
TWh
Other renewables
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Fossil w CCS
Fossil w/o CCS
53%
27%
2%
1%
7%
28%
22%
23%
10%
9%
13%
7%
10%
4%
21%
28%
4%13% 17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
4DS 2DS
2009 2050
Gene
ratio
n sh
are
Other renewables
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Fossil w CCS
Fossil w/o CCS
Other renewables
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
Solar
Hydro
Fossil w/o CCS
Fossil w CCS
2009 2050
© OECD/IEA 2012
2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0
2 500
5 000
7 500
10 000
2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0
2 500
5 000
7 500
10 000
OECD Other non-OECD
TWh
Power generation from natural gas increases to 2030 in the 2DS and the 4DS.
From 2030 to 2050, generation differs markedly.
Natural gas-fired power generation must decrease after 2030 to meet the CO2 emissions projected in the 2DS scenario.
Two very different profiles for power generation
2DS4DS
Non-OECD
© OECD/IEA 2012
Finland: bio-energy and nuclear
Bio-energy and nuclear dominate Finland’s low-carbon energy sector after 2030
Contribution of fossil fuels is halved during the next four decades
© OECD/IEA 2012
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000Other industries
Chemicals and pe-trochemicals
Aluminium
Pulp and paper
Iron and steel
Cement
2 DS
Industry must become more efficient
© OECD/IEA 2012
Significant potential for enhanced energy efficiency can be achieved through best available technologies.
GtC
O2
© OECD/IEA 2012
Clean energy investment pays off
© OECD/IEA 2012
Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return.
USD trillion
Recommendations to Governments
© OECD/IEA 2012
1. Create an investment climate of confidence in clean energy
2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future
3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D)
© OECD/IEA 2012
www.iea.org/etpFor much more, please visit
top related