oferta y demanda de gas lp en el mundo y el entorno de américa … · 2019-03-21 · >...

Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.

Oferta y demanda de Gas LP en el

mundo y el entorno de América Latina21 de marzo del 2019

Lima, Perú

Adrian Calcaneo

Director & líder para América Latina

Midstream y Líquidos

adrian.calcaneo@ihsmarkit.com

@EAdrianCalcaneo

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Agenda

• Metodología IHS Markit

• Panorama Global

• Panorama Regional

• Conclusiones

• Retos y oportunidades

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Metodología IHS Markit

Cobertura América Latina

• 29 países en el corto plazo.

> Serie mensual (2015-2020)

> Análisis de la oferta, demanda, e infraestructura.

> Comercio Internacional

> Pronostico de precio (molécula, flete, terminal)

• 43 países en el largo plazo

> Serie anual (2000-2050)

> Análisis de la oferta, demanda, e infraestructura.

> Comercio Internacional

> Pronostico de precio (molécula, flete, terminal)

• Conferencias, consultoría, y visitas con clientes.

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Los Líquidos del Gas Natural (LGM) se ven afectados por

varios mercados.

Gas NaturalLGN

PetroquimicaRefinación

Etano

Propano

Butano Normal

Gasolina Natural

Isobutano Petroleo

Crudo

Residencial/Comercial

Propano

Butano

Nafta

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Reporte Anual Servicio de Líquidos de Gas Natural

5

Oferta, Demanda, y Precios

Pronósticos

Largo Plazo

Corto Plazo

País

País

País

Visión del Mercado Global

Oferta, Demanda, y Precios

163 Países 60+ Países

• Análisis independiente del propano y butano.

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Panorama GlobalGas LP

6

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Producción de Gas LP en el mundo.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Mill

ion

s

Europe Latin America Africa CIS Oceania Asia North America

7

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Demanda de Gas LP en el mundo

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Mill

ion

s

Europa America Latina Africa CEI (Rusia) Oceania Asia EUA & Canada

8

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Mill

ion

s

Manufactured Gas MTBE

Engine Fuel Industrial

Other Demand Price-Sensitive Demand

Refinery Other Chemical

Residential and Commercial Exports

9

Demanda de Gas LP Estados Unidos Demanda de Gas LP Canada

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Mill

ion

s

Manufactured Gas Price-Sensitive Demand

MTBE Engine Fuel

Other Demand Residential and Commercial

Other Chemical Industrial

Refinery Exports

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Exportaciones de Gas LP de los Estados Unidos por destino

10

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Mill

ion

s

Latin America Europe Africa North America Oceania Other Asia

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Un mundo cambiante: El flujo del comercio de Gas LP global.

Source: IHS Energy – Waterborne LPG

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América LatinaPanorama de Gas LP

12

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El Mercado de Gas LP en América Latina a grandes rasgos:

• Un mercado en transición.

> Creciente influencia del precio de referencia Mont Belvieu.

– Lo que ocurre fuera de la región cada vez tiene mas importancia en el precio que paga el consumidor

final

> Incertidumbre debido a las transiciones políticas:

• Chile

• Colombia

• Brasil

• México

• Ecuador

– Inestabilidad política y económica

• Argentina

• Venezuela

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Producción de Gas LP en América Latina

0

5

10

15

20

25

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Mill

ion

s

Brazil Mexico Venezuela Argentina Peru Other

14

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Demanda de Gas LP

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Mill

ion

s

Mexico Brazil Venezuela Chile Argentina Peru Ecuador Dominican Republic Colombia Otros

15

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Balance de Gas LP regional

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Mill

ion

s

Importaciones Netas Demanda Produccion

16

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Balance regional: Importaciones vs exportaciones

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Mill

ion

s

Exports Imports

17

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America Latina: Importaciones vs Exportaciones

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Mexico Brazil Venezuela Argentina Peru Other

Latin America LPG imports by country

Source: IHS Energy © 2018 IHS Markit

Th

ou

sa

nd

Me

tric

To

nn

es

0

100

200

300

Argentina Mexico Trinidad Venezuela Peru Other

Latin America LPG exports by country

Source: IHS Energy © 2018 IHS MarkitT

ho

us

an

dM

etr

ic T

on

ne

s

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Importaciones de propano en América Latina (2018)

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Importaciones de butano en América Latina (2018)

20

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Importaciones de Gas LP mezclado en América Latina (2018)

21

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Proporción de Gas LP importado proveniente de los Estados Unidos

Country 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Argentina 0% 9% 1% 13% 3%

Bolivia 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Brazil 53% 71% 64% 62% 67%

Chile 68% 68% 62% 76% 76%

Colombia 11% 10% 24% 27% 28%

Mexico 98% 98% 99% 93% 88%

Peru 0% 8% 34% 21% 50%

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Demanda de Gas LP en America Latina

23

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Demanda de Gas LP en America Latina

24

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Consumo residencial y comercial de Gas LP per cápita

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Demanda Residencial y Comercial per capita en America Latina

Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit

Dem

an

da R

es/C

om

per

Cap

ita (kg

)

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La mayoría de los países tiene un déficit en su relación oferta demanda.

-600

-200

200

Chart Title

Mexico Brazil Venezuela Argentina Peru Other

Latin America LPG surplus/deficit by country

Source: IHS Energy © 2018 IHS Markit

Th

ou

san

dM

etr

ic T

on

nes

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Retos y oportunidades.

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Conclusiones

• La producción que no se ajusta a la creciente demanda da como resultado una

mayor dependencia de las importaciones.

• América Latina ahora participa en un mercado mundial. La comprensión local de

los impulsores de precios globales es una necesidad.

• A pesar de sus similitudes, no todos los países en la región están en la misma

situación.. Existen varias oportunidades en América Latina y hay espacio para el

crecimiento comercial residencial en el uso del Gas LP.

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Seminario de Gas LP en

America Latina 2019

12 al 14 de noviembre del 2019

Quito, Ecuador

¡Aparten la fecha!

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