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目錄 市場數據 Chart Book 3
清算行資訊 Information on RMB Clearing 7
政策追蹤 Policy Watch 9
市場動態 Market Updates 11
RMB 專題研究 RMB Offshore Market Insights 12
編者 Editors: 張文晶 (Annie Cheung) 譚愛瑋(Celine Tam) 孔玲(Kera Kong)
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在人民幣兌美元匯率繼續承受貶值壓力的情況下,人民幣國際化之路能否和如何走下去便是一個全新的課題。如果市場環境嚴峻到必需在人民幣匯率穩定和國際化之間作出一個選擇,而不能同時兼顧時,可能的政策選擇會是以匯率穩定爲主、國際化為輔。 Given the persistent depreciation pressure on the RMB against the USD, whether the RMB will continue on its internationalization journey and how the RMB can progress further will be a brand new topic. If the market condition changes drastically and there is an imminent need to make a decision between the stability of the RMB exchange rate and the progress of internationalization, given that both cannot be achieved at the same time, it is highly probable that exchange rate stability will be the primary focus and internationalization will be secondary.
發展規劃部經濟研究處
中國銀行(香港)Bank of China (Hong Kong) Limited
2016/03/09
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人民幣存款(圖1)
2016年1月底香港人民幣存款爲8,521億元,環比微升0.1%,同比減少13.2%。
人民幣跨境結算(圖2)
2016年1月份跨境貿易結算的人民幣匯款總額為 4,801億元,環比下降28.1%。
市場數據
Chart Book
1. 人民幣資金池狀況 RMB Capital Pool
RMB Deposits (Chart. 1)
RMB deposits in Hong Kong edged up by 0.1% MoM to RMB 852.1bn in January 2016. The outstanding amount decreased by 13.2% from a year ago.
RMB Cross-border Trade Settlement (Chart. 2) The amount of RMB cross-border trade settlement decreased by 28.1% MoM to RMB 480.1bn in January 2016.
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資料來源:Bloomberg, BOCHK 資料來源:Bloomberg, BOCHK
離岸人民幣拆借利率(圖3)
2月份香港銀行間人民幣拆借利率持續波動。隔夜拆息在2月19日升至9.265%。 2月29日香港人民幣隔夜、1週及3個月拆息率分別為。2.0435%、3.718%和4.758%。
人民幣匯率(圖4)
2月份離岸人民幣兌美元匯率環比升值0.64%,在岸人民幣兌美元匯率環比升值0.33%。2月29日離岸人民幣兌美元匯率收報 6.5523。離岸和在岸價差比上月明顯收窄,平均價差爲44點。
2. 人民幣資金成本 RMB Funding Cost
CNH HIBOR (Chart. 3)
CNH HIBOR fixing rates continued to fluctuate in February. The O/N CNH HIBOR once hit at 9.265% on February 19. On February 29, the O/N, 1-week and 3-month CNH HIBOR rates were 2.0435%, 3.718% and 4.758%, respectively.
RMB Exchange Rate (Chart. 4)
CNH appreciated against USD by 0.64% MoM while CNY appreciated against USD by 0.33% MoM in February. On February 29, CNH closed at 6.5523, and the average spread of the month between CNH and CNY narrowed considerably to 44 pips.
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資料來源:Bloomberg, BOCHK 資料來源:Bloomberg, BOCHK
中銀香港 - 富時離岸人民幣債券綜合指數(圖5)
截至2016年2月29日,中銀香港-富時離岸人民幣債券綜合指數上升至113.83。
點心債發行(圖6)
2016年2月點心債一級市場發行量為零,為連續3個月零發行。
3. 離岸人民幣金融產品 Offshore RMB Products
FTSE-BOCHK Offshore RMB Bond Composite Index (Chart. 5)
FTSE-BOCHK Offshore RMB Bond Composite Index increased to 113.83 on February 29, 2016.
Dim Sum Bond Issuance (Chart. 6)
There was no issuance of dim sum bonds for a third straight month in February 2016.
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資料來源:Bloomberg, BOCHK 資料來源:BOCHK Global Market estimate
點心債收益率(圖7)
截至2016年2月29日,1至30年期的離岸人民幣國債收益率均高於同年期的在岸人民幣國債收益率。
台灣人民幣存款(圖8)
截至2016年1月底,台灣外匯指定銀行(DBU)加國際金融業務分行(OBU)人民幣存款餘額環比上升0.24%至3,190億元。
Offshore RMB Bond Yield (Chart. 7)
As of February 29, 2016, the offshore RMB government bond yields from tenors of 1 year to 30 years were all higher than those of the onshore RMB government bond for the same tenor.
RMB Deposits in Taiwan (Chart. 8)
As of end-January 2016, total RMB deposits in Taiwan, including DBU and OBU RMB deposits, increased by 0.24% to RMB 319.0bn MoM .
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資料來源:Bloomberg, BOCHK 資料來源:Bloomberg, BOCHK
清算行資訊
Information on RMB Clearing
人民幣RTGS清算額
2016年2月,人民幣RTGS清算額為14.91萬億元,環比下跌26.6%。首兩個月累計 35.22 萬億元,同比增長13.5%。
RMB RTGS Turnover
Total RMB RTGS turnover was RMB 14.91tn in February 2016, or a MoM decrease of 26.6%. RTGS turnover increased by 13.5% YoY to RMB 35.22tn for the first two months.
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資料來源:HKICL, BOCHK
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Mainland RMB Cross-border Settlement
According to the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), RMB cross-border trade settlement reached RMB 564.3bn in January 2016, amongst which RMB cross-border trade settlement for goods amounted to RMB 492.2bn and settlement for services and other current accounts amounted to RMB 72.1bn. Meanwhile, the amount of RMB direct investment reached RMB 317.8bn, amongst which outward and inward direct investments were RMB 152.2bn and RMB 165.6bn, respectively. BOC Cross-border RMB Index (CRI) Increased by 15 points from the previous month and 20 points from the beginning of 2015 to 276 points in December 2015. CRI climbed for the first 8 months of 2015, and reached the peak at 321 points in August. CRI then retreated as a result of volatile RMB exchange rates in the onshore and offshore markets, interest rate fluctuation, the Fed’s rate hike and increasing economic headwinds. Overall, CRI gained slightly in 2015.
中國人民幣跨境結算業務
根據中國人民銀行公佈數據,2016年1月份跨境貿易人民幣結算業務發生5,643億元。其中貨物貿易4,922億元、服務貿易及其他經常項目721億元。另外,直接投資人民幣結算業務發生3,178億元,其中對外直接投資1,522億元、外商直接投資1,656億元。
2015年12月中國銀行跨境人民幣指數為276點,當月上升15點,全年上升20點。本月人民幣淨流出1,390億元。從全年情況看,1-8月CRI指數震盪走高,8月達到321點全年高點。之後受境內外市場人民幣匯率、利率波動,美聯儲加息,經濟下行壓力加大等多重因素的影響出現較大回落,但全年仍實現小幅提升。
資料來源:BOC, BOCHK
SWIFT 人民幣追蹤
2016年1月份,人民幣維持全球付款第五最活躍貨幣的地位, 佔全球支付2.45%。
SWIFT’s RMB Tracker
In January 2016, RMB held its position as the fifth most active currency used for global payments by value, accounting for 2.45% of global payments.
資料來源:SWIFT
外管局放寬QFII投資額度
2月4日,國家外匯管理局發佈《合格境外機構投資者境內證券投資外匯管理規定》。主要內容包括: 1) 不再對QFII機構設統一的投資額度上限,而是根據機構資產規模或管理的資產規模的一定比例作為其獲取投資額度的依據;2) 對QFII機構基礎額度內的額度申請採取備案管理;超過基礎額度的,才需外管局審批;3) 允許QFII機構開放式基金按日申購、贖回;4) QFII機構資金匯出的鎖定期從1年縮短為3個月,但保留資金分批、分期匯出要求。
政策追蹤
Policy Watch
SAFE Relaxed QFII Investment Quota
On February 4, State Administration of Foreign
Exchange (SAFE) released “the Provisions on Foreign
Exchange Administration of Domestic Securities
Investment by Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors
(QFII)”. It mainly included: 1) The unified investment
quota ceiling set on individual QFII would be revoked.
Instead, a certain percentage of the asset size or asset
size managed by the QFII would be used as the base
for calculating the investment quota. 2) Application for
investment quota by the QFII within the base quota
would be subject to management by record filing.
Approval by SAFE would only be required when
investment quota exceeds the base quota. 3) The QFII
would be allowed to subscribe or redeem open-ended
funds on a daily basis. 4) The lock-up period of the
outward remittance of capital by the QFII would be
shortened from 1 year to 3 months. However,
requirements for outward remittance of capital in
batches and by installments remain.
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人行進一步放開銀行間債券市場
2月24日,中國人民銀行宣佈在中國境外依法註冊成立的商業銀行、保險公司、證券公司、基金管理公司及其他資產管理機構等金融機構,以及養老基金、慈善基金、捐贈基金等人行認可的其他中長期機構投資者,均可投資銀行間債券市場,且沒有額度限制。符合條件的境外機構投資者通過銀行間市場結算代理人完成備案、開戶等手續後,即可成為銀行間債券市場的參與者。
PBOC Further Liberalized Interbank Bond Market
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced on
February 24 that commercial banks, insurance firms,
security firms, fund management companies and other
asset management companies that registered outside
of China, as well as other medium-to-long term
institutional investors that were approved by the PBOC,
such as pension funds, charity funds and endowment
funds, would be authorized to invest in onshore
interbank bond market without quota limitation. Eligible
offshore institutional investors can become market
participants after completing the filing and account
opening procedure with the interbank market
settlement agents.
人行下調存款準備金率
人行宣佈自3月1日起,普遍下調金融機構存款準備金率0.5個百分點。降準後,大型金融機構及中小型金融機構的存款準備金率分別是17%和15%。
PBOC Cut RRR
The PBOC cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by
50 bps for all financial institutions with effect from March
1. The RRR for large and medium to small financial
institutions would be 17% and 15%, respectively
following the PBOC’s announcement.
中行與中國遠洋海運集團簽署1,500億元合作協議
2月18日,中國銀行與中國遠洋海運集團在滬簽署《全球戰略合作協定》。根據協定,中行在全球範圍內向中國遠洋海運集團提供意向性總額不超過1,500億元的授信服務。雙方合作範圍將覆蓋信貸、直接融資、現金管理、企業年金、財務顧問、投資銀行、保險等領域。
市場動態
Market Updates
BOC Signed RMB 150bn Cooperative Agreement with China COSCO Shipping Co. Ltd.
On February 18, Bank of China (BOC) signed a
cooperative agreement with China COSCO Shipping
Corporation Limited. Under the agreement, China
COSCO Shipping Corporation Limited would be
expected to receive credit lines of no more than RMB
150bn on a global basis from BOC. The bilateral
cooperation will cover credit facility, direct financing,
cash management, company annuity, financial
consulting, investment banking, insurance, etc.
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RMB 專題研究
RMB Offshore Market Insights
專題一: 貶值壓力下的人民幣國際化
RMB Internationalization under the Depreciation Pressure
高級經濟研究員 戴道華 Daohua Dai, Senior Economist
2015年底,IMF決定在其SDR貨幣籃子當中納入人民幣,是人民幣國際化的重要里程碑。該決定既是對人民幣國際化已有進程的一種追認,因爲其量度指標要求人民幣無論在貿易還是金融領域的國際使用都要達到一定規模,也是對人民幣未來進一步國際化的一種推動,因爲它會帶來對人民幣資產更多的需求。然而,之後緊接著發生了人民幣匯率的攻防戰。在人民幣兌美元匯率繼續承受貶值壓力的情況下,人民幣國際化之路能否和如何走下去便是一個全新的課題。
As of end-2015, the IMF decided to include the RMB in
the SDR currency basket, which is an important
milestone for the internationalization of the RMB. As the
quantitative indicators require RMB to achieve certain
scale in the international usage in both trade and
financial sector, this decision is not only an
acknowledgement of the progress of the RMB
internationalization, but also motivation for further RMB’s
internationalization progress in the future, as this will
trigger more demand for RMB assets. However, this was
swiftly followed by the high-stake battles of the RMB
exchange rate. Given the persistent depreciation
pressure on the RMB against the USD, whether the
RMB will continue on its internationalization journey and
how the RMB can progress further will be a brand new
topic.
人民幣在國際儲備貨幣家庭當中剛剛入門,對其的要求可能會更高。另外,人民幣匯率是有管理的浮動匯率,市場參與者對有管理還是有一定的期望,人民幣的持份者因爲其利益所在當然希望通過管理,人民幣匯率能夠只升不跌,或是不會給其投資造成匯兌損失。這種期望未必合理,但就很現實,遂對人民幣在貶值壓力下的國際化帶來挑戰。
As the RMB had just joined the league of international
reserve currencies, the expectations towards RMB may
be higher. In addition, the RMB’s exchange rate is
managed-float, therefore market participants will
generally form certain expectation towards the managed
regime. RMB stakeholders with personal interests will
definitely hope that RMB exchange rate will only
appreciate or at least not to incur exchange rate losses in
their investment through the managed regime. This
expectation may not be reasonable but it is very realistic,
which brings challenges to the RMB internationalization
under depreciation pressure.
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Within the six years’ period between 2010 and 2015, the
USD had experienced a strong rally up to 38%.
According to the statistics in the SDR’s preliminary
assessment report by the IMF in August 2015, the
changes in the positions of USD and EUR were evident,
as the international reserve currency status of the USD
had risen on almost every aspect while that of EUR had
plummeted. It is worth noting that the dollar’s share had
only declined in terms of trade finance utilization, and that
of EUR had also declined. Within the same period, the
use of the RMB as a trade finance currency had
increased by 2%, while the absolute advantage enjoyed
by the USD remained unchanged. On the other hand,
the exchange rate of GBP and JPY also depreciated
against the USD within the same period, amongst which
GBP was relatively stronger while JPY weaker than
EUR. Their share generally declined. However as their
shares are not big to begin with, the impact and
significance of increment or decline in their proportions
are relatively limited.
在2010年至2015年這6年期間,美元錄得一輪升浪,高低升幅曾達到38%。根據IMF 2015年8月SDR初步檢討報告當中的數據,美元和歐元榮辱互見,美元的國際儲備貨幣地位幾乎全方位提升,歐元則下降。值得指出的是,美元僅在貿易融資方面使用的佔比下降,同時歐元佔比也在下降,期間是人民幣作爲貿易融資貨幣取得兩個百分點的佔比提升,但美元的絕對優勢不變。另外,期間英鎊和日圓兌美元也錄得貶值,其中英鎊相對稍強,日圓就比歐元更弱,其各個佔比降多於升,惟其比重本來就不大,故升跌的影響和意義也相對有限。
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According to the IMF, the RMB fulfilled the criteria of
joining the SDR currency basket with one of the
supporting factors coming from exports, and the other
from the progress achieved by the RMB in a series of
international financial indicators in the past 5 years. With
reference to the changes of other major international
reserve currencies within the same period, it can be
deduced that changes in exchange rate will directly
influence the status of an international reserve currency.
IMF認爲人民幣符合加入SDR貨幣籃子的標準,其中一半來自中國出口所提供的支持,另外一半則是來自人民幣在過去5年内在一系列國際金融領域指標當中取得的進展所提供的支持。參考其他主要國際儲備貨幣同期地位的沉浮,就可以看出匯率的變化對一隻國際儲備貨幣的地位的影響是相當直接的。
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Based on the above, the most important measuring
indicators of the internationalization progress of a
currency in the financial sector are the stock indicators,
such as the size of official foreign reserves, size of
international banking liabilities, size of international debt
securities, etc. They are complemented by the flow
indicators such as the issuance of international debt
securities, cross-border payments, trade finance, FX
market transactions, etc. The RMB has already
successfully placed itself among the top five currencies
globally in these areas. Currently, the shares taken up by
the RMB are still considerably small, with the highest
recorded in trade finance at 3.4% while others are still at
low single-digit numbers. In the future, if the RMB
continuously faces depreciation pressure, the impact on
its flow indicators may be considerably small. This is
because the volatility of the RMB exchange rate under
the depreciation expectation will be higher, therefore
RMB-related trading and payment transactions may not
necessarily decline. However, the impact on the most
important stock indicators may be larger.
從上所見,量度一隻貨幣在金融領域國際化程度的指標最主要的是存量指標,如官方外匯儲備持有的規模、國際銀行業負債規模、國際債券市場規模等,輔以流量指標如國際債券發行量、跨境支付、貿易融資和外匯市場交投等。人民幣在這些領域多已躋身全球前五大貨幣之列,但佔比則較小,最高為貿易融資的3.4%,其他佔比為更低的單位數字。未來人民幣如果持續承受貶值壓力,對流量指標的影響可能相對較小,因爲貶值預期下匯率波幅會擴大,人民幣相關的交易性和支付性的往來未必會減少,但對最重要的存量指標的影響就可能較大。
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人民幣得以成功納入SDR,新的貨幣籃子將在今年10月份開始生效,而非以往在新一年的第一天開始生效,IMF的考慮是讓有興趣配置人民幣的央行和貨幣當局有充足的時間作出組合調整。但如果人民幣在今年連續第3年兌美元貶值,同時爲了順應SDR收窄離岸和在岸價差的要求而令CNH大幅波動、CNH Hibor大幅抽高,那麽有興趣配置人民幣資產(主要是債券)的央行就要面對三大挑戰:其取得人民幣資金的成本會增加;配置人民幣資產後要面對的匯率風險會增加;其最主要的投資標的人民幣主權類債券因爲是避險首選,其收益率偏低。其投資決定困難,有可能先觀望爲主。如果這些央行從分散投資的角度依然想配置人民幣資產,它們很可能需要對沖人民幣匯率風險,就意味著在買入人民幣債券的同時要沽售遠期人民幣,以鎖定匯率,規避匯率風險,但這會增加人民幣的貶值壓力和預期,對人民幣匯率穩定的影響複雜化。對投資者而言是一個難題,對監管者而言也是一個難題。
The RMB is successfully added to the SDR and the new
currency basket will be effective from October this year.
This is different from previous practice where changes
will be effective from the first day of a new calendar year.
The major consideration of the IMF is to allow central
banks and monetary authorities with interest in asset
allocations into the RMB to have sufficient time to
conduct portfolio adjustments. However if the RMB
depreciates against the USD this year for the third year
consecutively, and at the same time, to fulfill SDR’s
requirement by narrowing the spread between offshore
and onshore exchange rates which may cause CNH to
exhibit higher volatilities and CNH Hibor to increase
dramatically, then central banks with interests in RMB
assets (mainly in bonds) will face three major challenges:
the increasing cost to obtain RMB funding; the increasing
exchange rate risks following asset allocation into the
RMB; RMB sovereign bonds, a major underlying
investment asset primarily for safety reasons, have lower
yields. Therefore, central banks may face difficulties in
making investment decisions and may possibly adopt a
“wait and see” approach. If from the perspective of risk
diversification, those central banks who are still
interested to increase allocations in the RMB assets will
have to sell RMB forwards at the same time while
purchasing RMB bonds, in order to lock-in the exchange
rate and mitigate exchange rate risk. But this will
increase the pressure and expectation of depreciation on
the RMB, which will further complicate the RMB
exchange rate stabilization. This is a challenge for both
the investors and also the regulators.
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As such, if the market condition changes drastically and
there is an imminent need to make a decision between
the stability of the RMB exchange rate and the progress
of internationalization, given that both cannot be
achieved at the same time, it is highly probable that
exchange rate stability will be the primary focus and
internationalization will be secondary.
據此,如果市場環境嚴峻到必需在人民幣匯率穩定和國際化之間作出一個選擇,而不能同時兼顧時,可能的政策選擇會是以匯率穩定爲主、國際化為輔。
在匯率穩定的目標之下,如果需求減弱,就要減少供應,那麽離岸人民幣資金池就會收縮,流動性偏緊,資金成本上升,才能有效穩住CNH匯率,但這樣一來,人民幣國際銀行業負債將難以擴展,甚至可能收縮。而在人民幣國際債券市場方面,同樣的因素會影響點心債的發行,如2015年香港地區點心債累計發行841億元人民幣,較2014年的2138億元減少六成。不過,熊貓債發行就有明顯進展,2015年共計65億元人民幣熊貓債的發行量創下新高。兩者皆是人民幣國際債券,而且不無替代效應,惟熊貓債的發行量迄今小於點心債,如果不能完全補充的話,整個人民幣國際債券市場的相關指標也將承受壓力。
Under the target of exchange rate stability, if demand
weakens, the corresponding supply will also have to be
reduced. As a result, the offshore RMB liquidity pool will
shrink, which will cause the liquidity to tighten and
funding cost to increase, only then can the CNH
exchange rate be effectively stabilized. However, under
this scenario, it will be difficult for the RMB international
banking liabilities to further expand. Instead they may
even shrink. With regard to the RMB international debt
securities market, the same factor will affect the issuance
of Dim Sum bonds. For example, the total cumulative
issuance of Dim Sum bonds in Hong Kong in 2015 was
RMB 84.1bn, down by 60% compared to the RMB
213.8bn in 2014. On the other hand, the issuance of
Panda bonds made impressive progress. In 2015, the
total issuance of Panda bonds hit a historical high of
RMB 6.5bn. Both are considered RMB international debt
securities, and are not mutually exclusive. However, the
issuance of Panda bonds is still smaller than the Dim
Sum bonds. If they could not complement for each
other’s shortfall, the relevant indicator of the overall RMB
international debt securities market will also be under
pressure.
RMB 專題研究
RMB Offshore Market Insights
專題二: 境外機構持有人民幣資產分析及對離岸市場影響
Analysis of RMB Asset Holdings of Foreign Institutions and the Impacts
on Offshore Market
經濟研究員 巴晴 Qing Ba, Economist
“811”匯改以來,離岸人民幣CNH匯率出現波動,境外人民幣資產規模亦出現收縮。美聯儲啟動加息週期,中國經濟下行壓力持續,外匯儲備、外匯佔款出現連續數月下降加劇了市場對人民幣未來走勢的擔憂。離岸人民幣CNH匯率反應相對敏感,兩地匯率價差不時拉闊,數次出現了匯差擴大至1,600基點以上的情況。另外,在岸市場上出現了一定規模境外機構減持人民幣資產情況。截至2015年11月,境外機構持有的人民幣資產規模較2015年高峰時期下降了7,200億元人民幣,而離岸市場上人民幣資產規模也收縮了近一成半。
Since the exchange rate reform on August 11, the
offshore RMB exchange rate (CNH) has been volatile
and the total size of offshore RMB assets has also
dwindled. The initiation of rate-hike cycle by the Fed, the
considerable downward pressure on China’s economy
and the decline in foreign exchange reserves and funds
outstanding for foreign exchange for consecutive months
has heightened the markets’ worries of the RMB’s future.
The CNH is quite sensitive, as the exchange rates of
both onshore and offshore diverged from time to time,
and there were multiple times where the spread peaked
at 1,600 pips and above. On the other hand, there were
also sizable reductions in RMB assets held by foreign
institutions in the onshore market. As of end-November
2015, the amount of RMB assets held by foreign
institutions declined by RMB 720bn from the historical
high. The size of RMB assets in the offshore market has
also shrunk by almost 15%.
在近期跨境監管政策頻出的背景下,兩地匯差時而擴大,在一定程度上反映出市場未能完全出清,人民幣貶值陰影揮之不去,難免對境外投資者持有人民幣資產信心產生一定影響。如何穩定境外投資者持有人民幣資產信心,避免更多境外投資者賣出人民幣資產,對CNH造成較大的貶值壓力,可能是近期離岸市場面臨的挑戰之一。
Against the backdrop of frequent announcements of
cross-border regulatory policies recently, the spread
between the onshore and offshore exchange rates
sometimes widens. At a certain level, it reflects that the
market conditions are not clear and the gloom of RMB
depreciation pressure persists, which influences the
confidence of investors towards holdings of RMB assets.
The most imminent challenge is how to regain the
confidence of foreign institutions in RMB assets, to
prevent more foreign investors from selling RMB assets
which may cause further depreciation pressure on the
CNH.
16
15
Secondly, there are also foreign institutions to hold RMB
assets in each offshore center. As of end-2015, the
assets mainly included RMB deposits and certificate of
deposits which aggregately amounted to approximately
RMB 1,010bn in Hong Kong, RMB deposits of
approximately RMB 310bn in Taiwan and also other
RMB assets in other offshore centers, with the total
amount of appropriately RMB 1.5tn.
第二,各離岸中心也有境外機構持有的人民幣資產。截至2015年底,主要包括香港離岸市場人民幣存款及存款證共約10,100億元,台灣人民幣存款約3,100億元,再加上其他離岸中心的人民幣資產,大約1.5萬億元。
17
Currently, the onshore RMB financial assets owned by
foreign institutions amounted to approximately RMB
3,609bn (as of end-November 2015), including RMB
assets in equities held by foreign institutions, bonds held
by non-residents onshore, RMB deposits held by non-
residents in onshore banks, and loans from offshore
institutions to onshore institutions.
目前境外機構持有的境內人民幣金融資產大約有36,090億元(截至2015年11月底),其中包括:境外機構持有的股票類人民幣資產;非居民在境內持有的債券;非居民在境內銀行的人民幣存款;以及境外機構對境內機構的貸款。
Thirdly, foreign institutions (such as central banks etc.)
can also obtain RMB assets through bilateral currency
swap agreements. Some market participants worry that
the bilateral currency swap agreements signed between
China and other countries may induce foreign institutions
who hold a huge amount of RMB assets to liquidate
under the expectation of RMB depreciation, exerting
depreciation pressure in the offshore market. In fact, as
the bilateral currency swap agreements are merely
liquidity commitments by the People’s Bank of China
(PBOC) to other central banks, and not the actual
amount of RMB lent to or actual balance held by foreign
institutions. According to statistics by the PBOC, as of
end of September 2015, the actual balance of RMB
drawn by offshore monetary authorities amounted to
only RMB 23bn, a very small portion of the total size of
RMB funds overseas.
第三,境外機構(如央行等)也可以通過互換協定獲取一定人民幣資產。市場上有人擔心中國簽訂的人民幣貨幣互換會導致境外機構持有大量人民幣資產,在人民幣貶值預期下出現拋售,對離岸市場形成貶值壓力。實際上,由於互換協議僅僅是中國央行對其他央行的借款承諾,而非實際借出人民幣或境外機構實際持有量。央行數據顯示,截至2015年9月末,境外貨幣當局實際動用人民幣餘額僅為230億元,佔海外人民幣資金量的很小一部分。
15
By rough estimation, the RMB assets held by foreign
institutions is between RMB 2tn - 2.5tn, which is limited.
So even if there are considerably large liquidations in
RMB assets in the offshore market, China will be able to
handle it through its forex reserve. However, it is worth
noting that when there is huge selling pressure in the
offshore market, the spread between the CNH and CNY
exchange rates may also widen, which may in turn
affects the onshore market. Therefore, to narrow the
spread between the CNH and CNY, it is especially
important to manage the expectations of the RMB
exchange rate.
初步估算,境外機構持有的人民幣資產大約為2-2.5萬億元人民幣,整體規模有限,即使在離岸市場出現較大規模人民幣資產減持的現象,中國外儲也有能力消化。當然需要注意的是,當離岸市場上出現拋售壓力時,CNH與CNY之間有可能持續出現價差,差價越大,會反過來影響在岸市場。所以,收斂CNH與CNY的匯率差價,對管理人民幣匯率預期尤為重要。
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目前央行主要通過加強資本帳戶宏觀審慎管理,收緊境外流動性等操作,穩定CNH匯率。短期內政策效果明顯,兩地匯差明顯收窄,人民幣匯率成功企穩。長遠而言,近期CNH匯率波動是對離岸市場一次有益考驗,有利於人民幣國際化的長遠發展。人民幣靠“單邊升值”去支撐國際化加速發展,是不可持續的。穩步的國際化,必須建基於海外對人民幣資產的真正信心和需求,以及離岸市場的多樣化發展。加快推動匯率市場化改革,從軟盯住美元轉向參考一籃子貨幣,以實際行動不斷推進國內金融體系的完善、開放和市場主導改革,人民幣國際化將會繼續前進。
At the moment, the major measures undertaken by the
PBOC to stabilize the RMB exchange rate are through
the strengthening of macro-prudential management of
capital account and the tightening of offshore liquidity. In
the short term, these policies are seen to bring significant
results, with the narrowing spread between the two
exchange rates and the successful stabilization of the
RMB exchange rate. In the long term, the recent volatility
in the RMB exchange rate is a fruitful experience for the
offshore market and is beneficial to the long term
development of RMB internationalization. The
dependence on “one-way appreciation” of the RMB to
accelerate the internationalization progress is
unsustainable. The stable development of the RMB
internationalization must be built on the real confidence
and demand from overseas towards RMB assets and
the diversified development of the offshore market. In
order to accelerate the reform of exchange rate, it can
start from the transition of purely focusing on USD to
referring to a basket of currencies, and through the
continuous facilitation of the enhancement, liberalization
and market-oriented reforms of the onshore financial
system. The RMB internationalization will continue on its
journey.
聲明:本報告僅供參考之用,不反映中銀香港意見,不構成任何投資建議。 Disclaimer: This report is for reference and information purposes only. It does not reflect the views of Bank of China (Hong Kong) or constitute any investment advice.
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