ontario election update
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OREA CAMPAIGN COLLEGEMONDAY, APRIL 18, 2011
John WrightSenior Vice President
Ipsos Reid
CAMPAIGNS MATTER
CAMPAIGNS START LONG BEFORE THE WRIT IS DROPPED
CAMPAIGNS ARE TO SHAPE THE MOTIVATING BALLOT QUESTION
3
Thinking of how you feel right now, if a PROVINCIAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following parties’ candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support?
When I Spoke to OREA in November, 2010…
4245 46 45 45
39 38 37
3232
41
17 1613 13 12
16 15
2018
20
810 10 10 11
9 10 11 11
7
35
3634
3229
31 32 31
36
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Oct '07 Jan '09 April'09
May '09 July '09 Oct '09 Dec '09 June'10
Aug '10 Nov '10
Party Support in Ontario (TRACKING 2007-2011),
Election Results
Time for a Change: 64%...
4
Some people say that the Liberal government under Premier Dalton McGuinty has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected during the Provincial election this upcoming October. Other people say that it is time for another provincial political party to take over and run the province. Which statement is closest to your point of view?
30%
64%
6%
McGuinty government hasdone a good job anddeserves re-election
Time for another provincialpolitical party to take over
Don't know/Refused
Wrong Direction: 68%...
5
Overall, would you say that Ontario is headed on the right track these days or headed in the wrong direction?
32%
68%
Right Track Wrong Direction
Best Premier: Hudak (37%) versus McGuinty (29%)…
6
Which of the provincial party leaders do you think would make the best Premier of Ontario?
29%
37%
21%
13%
Dalton McGuinty
Tim Hudak
Andrea Horwath
Mike Schreiner
Trust: Hudak 33% (+6)…Who will Get Things Done : 41% (+10)…
7
Please indicate which leader is best described by each trait:
27%
33%
25%
15%
Premier DaltonMcGuinty, Leader
of the Liberal Party
ProgressiveConservative
Leader Tim Hudak
NDP LeaderAndrea Horwath
Green PartyLeader Mike
Schreiner
Someone you can trust
31%
41%
20%
9%
Premier DaltonMcGuinty, Leader of
the Liberal Party
ProgressiveConservative Leader
Tim Hudak
NDP Leader AndreaHorwath
Green Party LeaderMike Schreiner
Someone who will get things done
What it Takes to Lead Ontario: Hudak 41% (+11)…Who Has a Vision to Support: Hudak 40% (+16)…
8
Please indicate which leader is best described by each trait:
30%
41%
20%
9%
Premier DaltonMcGuinty, Leader
of the LiberalParty
ProgressiveConservativeLeader Tim
Hudak
NDP LeaderAndrea Horwath
Green PartyLeader Mike
Schreiner
Someone who has what it takes to lead Ontario
24%
40%
23%
13%
Premier DaltonMcGuinty, Leader
of the LiberalParty
ProgressiveConservativeLeader Tim
Hudak
NDP LeaderAndrea Horwath
Green PartyLeader Mike
Schreiner
Someone who has a vision of Ontario that you can support
Hidden Agenda: McGuinty (+32)…Open to Ideas: Hudak (+8)…
9
Please indicate which leader is best described by each trait:
56%
24%
12%
8%
Premier DaltonMcGuinty, Leader
of the LiberalParty
ProgressiveConservative
Leader Tim Hudak
NDP LeaderAndrea Horwath
Green PartyLeader Mike
Schreiner
Someone who has a hidden agenda
20%
28%
27%
25%
Premier DaltonMcGuinty,
Leader of theLiberal Party
ProgressiveConservativeLeader Tim
Hudak
NDP LeaderAndrea Horwath
Green PartyLeader Mike
Schreiner
Someone who is open to the ideas of others
Someone Who Can Compromise: Hudak 33%(+5)…Best to Manage the Economy: 43% Hudak (+14)…
10
Please indicate which leader is best described by each trait:
28%
33%
26%
12%
Premier DaltonMcGuinty,
Leader of theLiberal Party
ProgressiveConservativeLeader Tim
Hudak
NDP LeaderAndrea
Horwath
Green PartyLeader Mike
Schreiner
Someone who knows when to compromise for the greater good
29%
43%
21%
7%
Premier DaltonMcGuinty,
Leader of theLiberal Party
ProgressiveConservativeLeader Tim
Hudak
NDP LeaderAndrea
Horwath
Green PartyLeader Mike
Schreiner
Someone who is best to manage the economy
Best Manage Taxpayers Dollars: Hudak 38% (+13)…Best Manage Healthcare System: Hudak 37% (+12)…
11
Please indicate which leader is best described by each trait:
25%
38%
21%
15%
Premier DaltonMcGuinty,
Leader of theLiberal Party
ProgressiveConservativeLeader Tim
Hudak
NDP LeaderAndrea
Horwath
Green PartyLeader Mike
Schreiner
Someone who is best to manage taxpayers dollars
25%
37%
26%
12%
Premier DaltonMcGuinty, Leader
of the LiberalParty
ProgressiveConservativeLeader Tim
Hudak
NDP LeaderAndrea Horwath
Green PartyLeader Mike
Schreiner
Someone who is best to manage the future of the provincial healthcare system
Liberals on Their Heels…Hudak Pressing
McGuinty Government Scandals: Incompetent
High Rates and Taxes: Hurt Families
Deficit Spending Out of Control: Must Manage,Must Have a Plan or Ruin
Turning the Battleship Around
December 2010: Battle Maneuvers Began
The Liberal Campaign March…
In December the Liberals struck back on almost all fronts with what I call the "Buckley's" formula: it's tough
medicine to make the province work better and to build--like Hydro Rates
The Liberal communications team took over as the policy people shut down and the Premier went on tour with his
economic/jobs message
The Liberals challenged: show us your plans and alternatives: Hydro, HST, Healthcare, Education
Made a virtue out of tough medicine, started shutting down controversial items (gas plant dropped in Oakville/compensation, Wind Farm moratorium)
Hudak stumbled during his buck a beer week on healthcare: Feb 3 Tory media release said "If elected premier he would not cut the heath tax or Ontario's health-re budget". A few days later he said that "all options" were on the table to
give voters some relief, including the health tax
"Family Coalition" starts attacking Hudak with ad's, Teachers say they will support McGuinty, and the Mike Harris
'Haunting' in Toronto picks up
The Budget shows the deficit being paid down sooner and puts Healthcare and Education up as the ballot targets
There is Caucus Unrest with PC’s over Nominations
The Liberal Campaign March…
We Went From This:
TO THIS:
AND THIS:
AND EVEN GOT SOME HELP WHERE
HE DIDN’T EXPECT IT…
178 Days Until The Provincial Election
Current Federal Election Has And Will Have An Impact
Ipsos Stopped Polling On Ontario Politics In March Because Of Federal Campaign "Spill“
But at the End of February…
21
Thinking of how you feel right now, if a PROVINCIAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following parties’ candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support?
Ontario Provincial Vote Support February 2011…
4245 46 45 45
39 38 37
32
37
32
41
37
17 1613 13 12
16 15
2018
2017 16
810 10 10 11
9 10 11 11
79 8
3535
383634
3229
31 32 31
36
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Oct'07
Jan'09
April'09
May'09
July'09
Oct'09
Dec'09
June'10
Aug'10
Nov'10
Jan'11
Feb'11
Party Support in Ontario (TRACKING 2007-2011),
Election Results
Provincial Vote Intentions in Toronto…
22
Parties/candidates supported/lean towards Base: All respondents n=513
43%
21%
14%
6%
1%
15%
The Ontario Liberals, led by Dalton McGuinty
The Ontario Progressive Conservatives (PC), led by TimHudak
The Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP), led by AndreaHorwath
The Ontario Green Party, led by Mike Schreiner
Other
Don't know
Approval Ratings Provincial Leaders in Toronto…
23
. Generally speaking would you say you approve or disapprove of the overall performance of the following? Base: All respondents n=513
12%
9%
7%
42%
42%
40%
25%
36%
34%
21%
13%
19%
Premier Dalton McGuinty
Provincial NDP LeaderAndrea Horwath
Provincial ConservativeLeader Tim Hudak
Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove
54%
% Strongly/Somewhat
Approve
51%
47%
Potential to form Government: Not at all…
But Policies will be Important to Watch as Liberals Conscious of their Far Left Flank
Andrea Horwath – First Campaign will Likely Use Jack Layton/Olivia Chow to Campaign in
Toronto/North/Southwest
More Center Left than Hard Labour Left?
Wildcard Spoilers: Possible Minority Brokers
The NDP…
Why You Matter
Voting by Own vs. Rent…2010 Municipal Elections…
26
Thinking about the most recent municipal election held in your municipality or region, did you vote?Base: All respondents: Net own n=972; Net rent n=547.
Net Own Net Rent
Those who own their home are much more likely (74%) to say they voted in their most recent municipal election than those who rent (48%).
Rating Investments as Builders of Equity and Wealth in Ontario:
27
Thinking about your financial future, please indicate the degree to which you believe the following forms of investments are good or not at building equity and wealth: Base: All respondents n=1,519
86%
79%
74%
63%
26%
23%
22%
Very/pretty good
ISSUES IN ONTARIO
Issue Watch: Jobs and Economy Top Concern in Ontario…
3%
5%
6%
10%
11%
11%
13%
27%
29%
35%
Crime/Violence
Deficit/Govnt Spending
Social Services
Transportation/Infrastructure
Energy/Hydro
Taxes
Education
Healthcare
Environment
Econ/Unemploy/Cost of Living
The Economy: Global and National
31
The Global Average Assessment of National Economies in 24 Countries: Flat Lined…
% Very Good / Somewhat Good
45%
32%29%
38% 38% 39% 39% 40% 41% 40%42% 41% 41% 40% 41%
38%
55%56%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Apr/07 Oct/07 Apr/08 Nov/08 Apr/09Nov/Jan/10Apr/10 May/10 Jun/10 Jul/10 Aug/10 Sept/10 Oct/10 Nov/10 Dec/10 Jan/11 Feb/11 Mar/11
Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
3
32Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
% Very Good / Somewhat Good
38%85%
73%
71%70%
67%
64%62%
53%
43%43%
40%
40%
36%26%
22%
22%19%
19%
12%10%
8%
8%6%
3%
TotalSaudi Arabia
IndiaSweden
AustraliaChina
CanadaGermany
BrazilArgentina
TurkeyIndonesia
South AfricaBelgium
RussiaMexico
South KoreaPoland
United StatesItaly
FranceGreat Britain
JapanSpain
Hungary
Global Citizens Who Assess Current Economic Situation in their Country as “Good”: Canada 6th of 24…
3333
Assessment of the Overall State of the Economy- Tracking from 1994 to March 2011…
49%
65%
74%77%
81%
69%
77%74%
66%
75%
81%78%76%
73%
80%81%83%87%
78%74%73%
66%
53%
62%59%
56%51% 53%54%
62%62%67%68%
58%60%59% 60%64%
59%
51%
35%
26%23%
19%
31%
23%26%
34%
25%
19%22%24%
27%
20%19%17%13%
22%26%27%
34%
59%
47%46%
38%38%33%32%
42%40%41% 40%36%
61%60%
54%
48%
44%41% 41%
47%
39%40%
46%
52%
56%53%
47%
38%
44%41%
49%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Jul 9
4
May
95
Jul 9
6
May
97
May
98
May
99
Jul 0
0
Nov 0
2
Apr 0
3
Feb
04
May
04
Sep 0
4
Nov 0
4
Feb
05
May
05
Sep 0
5
Feb
06
Nov 0
6
Apr 0
7
Aug 0
7
Apr 0
8
Aug 0
8
Oct 0
8
Nov 0
8
Jan
09
Mar
09
May
09
Jul 0
9
Sep 0
9
Nov 0
9
Dec 0
9
Jan
10
Feb
10
Mar
10
Apr 1
0
May
10
Jun
10
Jul 1
0
Aug 1
0
Sep 1
0
Oct 1
0
Nov 1
0
Dec 1
0
Jan
11
Feb
11
Mar
11
Good Bad
Base: All Respondents n = 3520
In terms of the current economic conditions in Canada as a whole, how would you describe the overall state of the economy right now? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? Q.1.
34
Canadians and Americans AssessCurrent National Economic Condition…
% Very Good / Somewhat Good
47%
19% 19%
11% 13%
20%17%
25%23%
18% 17%15% 15%
18%20% 19% 20% 20% 19%
80%
87%
48%43%
60%65% 67%
64%68% 68%
65%68%
63% 63% 62%
68% 68%64%
68%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Ap
r 20
07
Oct
200
7
Ap
r 20
08
No
v 20
08
Ap
r 20
09
No
v/Ja
n 2
010
Mar
201
0
Ap
r 20
10
May
201
0
Jun
201
0
Jul 2
010
Au
g 2
010
Sep
t 20
10
Oct
201
0
No
v 20
10
Dec
201
0
Jan
201
1
Feb
201
1
Mar
/11
United States Canada
Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
35
Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy.
% Strong (Top 3 - 5-6-7)
29%62%
56%53%
52%51%
46%41%
38%33%
30%26%
23%22%
19%18%
17%17%
16%16%16%
12%9%9%
5%
TotalSaudi Arabia
ChinaAustralia
IndiaSwedenCanada
BrazilGermany
TurkeyIndonesiaArgentina
BelgiumSouth Africa
PolandUnited States
MexicoRussiaFrance
ItalySouth KoreaGreat Britain
HungarySpainJapan
Citizen Consumers Who Say Current Local Economy Condition Strong…
36
Canadians and Americans AssessCurrent Local Economic Condition…
% Strong (Top 3 - 5-6-7)
20% 21% 21% 21% 20%17% 16%
19% 20% 20% 19%
24%
18%
44%47%
45% 46% 47% 46%48%
43%46%
42%
49% 49%46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sept 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011
United States Canada
Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy.
37
Citizen Consumers Who Say Economy in the Local Area Stronger in Next Six Months…
Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to bemuch stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
% Much Stronger / Somewhat Stronger
26%
67%
56%
55%
44%
43%
40%
29%
28%
28%
26%
22%
21%
21%
19%
18%
17%
17%
16%
14%
14%
10%
8%
8%4%
Total
Brazil
Saudi Arabia
India
Argentina
Mexico
China
Indonesia
Canada
Turkey
Germany
Australia
Spain
United States
South Korea
Russia
Italy
Sweden
South Africa
Belgium
Poland
Hungary
Great Britain
Japan
France
38
Canadians and Americans AssessLocal Economic 6 Month Outlook…
% Much Stronger / Somewhat Stronger
31%
23%22% 22%
24%25%
27% 27%
21%
32%
28%
27%
32%
36%
29% 29%
31%
27%
38%
27%26%
25%
30%
29%
35%
27%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Jul 2010 Aug 2010 Sept 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011
United States Canada
Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to bemuch stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
Provincial
4040
Job Anxiety: Nationally Total = 22%, (+2 since January)…
17%-2
18%-1
16%+1
28%+5
21%+4
21%+2
Are you or is anyone in your household worried about losing their job or being laid off? Q.7. Base: All Respondents n = 3520 *Percentage of People Who Responded ‘Yes – Worried’
414141
Perception of Overall State of the Canadian Economy Total National: Ontario 61% “Good”
In terms of the current economic conditions in Canada as a whole, how would you describe the overall state of the economy right now? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad? Q.1.
61%
63%
69%
75%
61%
55%
61%
39%
37%
31%
25%
39%
45%
39%
Total
BC
AB
SK/MB
Ontario
Quebec
Atlantic
GoodBad
Percent ‘Good’ Change
over Previous Quarter
+1%
+1%
-6%
-2%
+6%
0%
-5%
Base: All Respondents n = 3520
424242
Outlook for the Canadian Economy - Over the Next Year : Ontario 41% “Improve”…
(Canadian economy).Thinking about the next year or so, do you, yourself, generally feel that the Canadian economy and your own economic situation will improve, stay the same or get worse? Q.9_1.
42%
46%
45%
44%
37%
33%
26%
26%
22%
22%
24%
27%
36%
50%
Total
BC
AB
SK/MB
Ontario
Quebec
Atlantic
Improve
Worsen
Percent ‘Improve’ Change
over Previous Quarter
-1%
0%
-11%
-4%
+2%
+5%
-11%
Base: All Respondents n =3520
434343
Outlook for Personal Financial Situation - Over the Next Year : Ontario 39% “Improve…
Your own financial situation.Thinking about the next year or so, do you, yourself, generally feel that the Canadian economy and your own financial situation will improve, stay the same or get worse? Q.9_2.
39%
36%
45%
40%
39%
43%
31%
22%
22%
20%
21%
23%
18%
26%
Total
BC
AB
SK/MB
Ontario
Quebec
Atlantic
Improve
Worsen
Percent ‘Improve’ Change
over Previous Quarter
+1%
-2%
-3%
0%
+3%
+8%
-13%
Base: All Respondents n = 3520
But House Purchase Intent Has Declined In Alberta And Ontario…
9%
9%
7%
8%
13%
9%
9%
8%
10%
7%
10%
10%
7%
9%
7%
9%
11%
8%
21%
21%
19%
25%
22%
26%
20%
20%
14%
21%
24%
19%
22%
17%
15%
15%
15%
17%
32%
26%
28%
21%
26%
21%
32%
20%
19%
28%
24%
20%
30%
25%
28%
31%
28%
21%
39%
44%
46%
45%
39%
43%
39%
52%
56%
44%
42%
50%
41%
49%
50%
45%
46%
54%
BC 2011 (n=282)
2010 (n=186)
2009 (n=314)
Alberta 2011 (n=186)
2010 (n=276)
2009 (n=174)
Man/Sask 2011 (n=145)
2010 (n=166)
2009 (n=108)
Ontario 2011 (n=774)
2010 (n=775)
2009 (n=771)
Quebec 2011 (n=565)
2010 (n=465)
2009 (n=499)
Atlantic 2011 (n=151)
2010 (n=179)
2009 (n=160)
Very likely Somewhat likely Not very likely Not at all likely
Q6. How likely are you to purchase a home, or another home, within the next two years? Are you ... Base: All Respondents
Some Attitudes Towards Home Ownership and Government in Ontario…
The government shouldprovide home owners withincentives to reduce their
energy costs
The government shouldencourage home-renovation
through tax credits
The government shouldreduce the taxes paid when
buying a home
Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree
45
Thinking about home ownership, to what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?Base: Own a home n=972
95%
94%
93%
Strongly/somewhat
agree
Conclusions
Conclusions…
What Does It Take For A Majority Government In Ontario?42%...
How Long is a Week in Politics?A Lifetime…
Who Has the Greatest Ability to Set the Agenda?The Sitting Government…
What is Critical to Know?Campaigns Matter in Shaping a Ballot Question…
So, How is This One Shaping Up?
Conclusions…
A Possible Minority Either Way For Liberals or Conservatives
A fight for Hard Working Families
Liberals
Healthcare (McGuinty already Calling out Feds)
EducationGrowthStability
Making Tough Decisions
Conclusions…
A Possible Minority Either Way For Liberals or Conservatives
A fight for Hard Working Families
Conservatives
Scandals: Out of TouchDeficit Spending: Out of Control
TAXESA Bleak Future Without Change
But Remember:
CAMPAIGNS MATTER
OREA CAMPAIGN COLLEGEMONDAY, APRIL 18, 2011
John WrightSenior Vice President
Ipsos Reid
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