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Ontario’s Opportunities in a Changing Climate
Latornell ConferenceNov 19, 2015
Ellen SchwartzelEnvironmental Commissioner (Acting)
1
Overview
global context
Ontario’s opportunities
Adapting to change: where are the policy drivers?
2
The ECO’s Expanded Mandate
Annual reports on: [the Green Energy and Green Economy Act, 2009]
greenhouse gas emissions
energy conservation
ECO’s Greenhouse Gas Report 2015
4
ECO’s Report on Climate Data2015
5
The science is clear- land and ocean surface temperatures are rising as predicted
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Global mean surface temperatures have risen 0.85 degrees C since 1880
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Global mean surface temperatures have risen 0.85 degrees C since 1880
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Nov. 9, 2015:Met Office, Hadley Centre for
Climate Science and ServicesU.K.
Ontario’s climate is changing too: Ontario’s average temperature increases have outpaced
the global average (1900-2012 time-span)
Feeling the Heat: GHG Progress Report 2015: p. 37
11
Ontario’s climate is changing too: Number of frost-free days in Ontario increased by 18 days between 1979 and
2009.
18 days
over 30 years
Feeling the Heat: GHG Progress Report 2015: p. 37
12
Ontario’s climate is changing too:Lyme Disease: reported cases have gone up four-fold in four years.
144 2009
to 682 2013
Feeling the Heat: GHG Progress Report 2015: p. 9
13
Ontario’s climate is changing too:Lyme Disease: reported cases have gone up four-fold in four years.
144 2009
to 682 2013
Feeling the Heat: GHG Progress Report 2015: p. 9
14
Ontario’s climate is changing too:
Expect more hot days:Toronto and Windsor can expect double the current average number of over 30 degrees C, by 2050
Feeling the Heat: GHG Progress Report 2015: p. 9
15
Cutting Greenhouse Gases;
“Mitigation”;How is Ontario doing?
16
Ontario set targets in 2007to cut Greenhouse Gas Emissions
6% below 1990 by 2014 (to 166 Mt)
15% below 1990 by 2020 (to 150 Mt)
80% below 1990 by 2050 (to 35 Mt)
17
Ontario’s targets not arbitrary;
International goals
Assume we can keep within 2 degrees of warming (compared to pre-industrial levels)
Assume planet can cope with 2 degrees of warming
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Ontario’s Target for 2050: our challenge!
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Ontario’s Greenhouse Gases
Where do they come from?
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Greenhouse Gas Emissions
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Greenhouse Gas Emissions
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Greenhouse Gas Emissions
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Greenhouse Gas Emissions
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Greenhouse Gas Emissions
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Ontario’s Emissions Profile
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Ontario’s Targets
2014
2020 ?
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Cutting Greenhouse Gases;Ontario has options!
British Columbia: carbon tax since 2008; ~7 cents/litre of gas
Quebec:Cap and trade system for carbon credits
Ontario: Cap and trade announced April 13, 2015
30
Ontario Action on Climate Change:
Cap and trade announced April 13, 2015
(some details just released: Nov. 13, 2015)
Climate Summit of the Americas July 7-9
Climate Change Strategy promised for 2015
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GDP up; GHGs down
32
Cutting Greenhouse Gases;Ontario has options!
-a price on carbon
-use our low-carbon electricity for electric vehicles
33
Cutting Greenhouse Gases;Ontario has options!
compact urban development
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Cutting Greenhouse Gases;Ontario has options!
compact urban development
35
Cutting Greenhouse Gases;Ontario has options!
-a price on carbon
-use our low-carbon electricity for electric vehicles
-compact urban development
-strengthen the Ontario Building Code
-incentives to retrofit existing buildings
-build up carbon in farm soils
36
Cutting Greenhouse Gases
The Science is ClearOntario has options
37
Adapting to Change
Adapting is a challenge:
38
Adapting to Change
Adapting is a challenge:
What are the policy drivers?
39
Four Big Ideas
40
Adapting to Change
Insurance risks are changing:
Finch Ave. wash-out:August 19, 2005 storm
100-year storm: ~175mm rain in under one hour
Insured losses: $500 million
41
Adapting to Change
42
Adapting to Change
Insurance risks are changing:
Don Valley flooded:July 8, 2013 storm
~126mm rain in ~ two hours
Insured losses: $940 million
43
Adapting to Change
2014
44
Adapting to Change
Ministry of Infrastructure:(now renamed: Economic Development, Employment and Infrastructure)
Ontario’s 10 Year Infrastructure Plan
Promise:
adaptation to be built in
45
Adapting to Change
Ministry of Infrastructure:
Ontario’s 10 Year Infrastructure Plan
ECO’s 2014 finding: No performance measures for municipal stormwater systems
46
Adapting to Change
Ministry of Infrastructure:Promise:
vulnerability assessments for infrastructure
47
Adapting to Change
Ministry of Infrastructure:
Asset Management Guide 2012 – ($$ pre-condition)ECO’s 2014 finding:
No mandatory vulnerability assessments; no guidance
48
Adapting to Change
Ministry of Environment and Climate Change:
2010 Promise:
Update Stormwater Planning and Design Manual
49
Adapting to Change
Ministry of Environment and Climate Change:Update of Stormwater Planning and Design Manual
ECO 2014 Finding:
-? drafting voluntary guidance?
50
Adapting to Change
Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry:
No Promise: Update of Floodplain Maps
-most are outdated
51
Adapting to Change
Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing:
Provincial Policy Statement 2014
No requirement to identify vulnerable lands or infrastructure
No prohibition of development in flood fringe
No guidance, performance measures, outreach, training
52
Adapting to Change
Is Ontario’s EA process helping?
Commitment;
Ontario will integrate climate change impacts into the EA process
(2011; Climate Ready; Action 8)
53
Adapting to Change
Update: “MOECC has prepared draft guidance for considering climate effects in EA processes. The guidance focuses primarily on climate adaptation measures. Staff have also included references to climate change as an environmental effect to be considered in the EA processes in the EA program’s Codes of Practice. Considerations on how to move the document forward are being assessed.” (MOECC fall 2014)
54
Adapting to Change
2014 Codes of Practice for
Individual EAs
Class EAs
…proponents should give consideration as to how the project… may interrelate with the environment, including potentially changing climatic conditions over time.
55
Adapting to Change
Adapting is a challenge:
policy drivers needed!
56
Adapting to Change
Uncertainty will be part of the picture
57
Adapting to Change
Uncertainty will be part of the picture:
What will the climate look like?
– data needed!
58
Thank you!
Ellen Schwartzel, Commissioner (Acting)
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