operational analysis for hq 1(uk)armd div on op telic john g owen jarrod cornforth dstl support to...

Operational Analysis forHQ 1(UK)Armd Div onOp TELIC

John G Owen

Jarrod Cornforth

Dstl Support to Operations Group

© Dstl 2003

11 April 2023 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

OA Support Pre-Deployment

• Work during Nov 02 - Jan 03

• Conducted and reported by analysts at HQ Land Command

– Supported by analysts at Dstl

• Examination of ‘Northern Option’ plan

– Land combat modelling

– Logistic estimates (reworked for ‘Southern Option’)

© Dstl 2003

11 April 2023 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

OA Support on Deployment

• HQ started to deploy in mid-Jan 03

• 2 analysts deployed 28 Jan 03

– Remained with Div HQ Main throughout

• Analysts attached to G3 Plans

– Worked for cells in HQ and DSG

– Also for Brigade HQs

• Some reachback support from NCHQ and UK

– But little used because of comms problems

© Dstl 2003

11 April 2023 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

OA Workspace

© Dstl 2003

11 April 2023 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Accomodation for Analysts

© Dstl 2003

11 April 2023 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Local Scenery

© Dstl 2003

11 April 2023 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

OA Tasks in Support of Warfighting

• Static Scoring and Force Ratio estimates

• Battle modelling

– Outcomes and casualty levels

• Risk to helicopters from ground fire

• Campaign intensity and duration

• Logistic and movement estimation

– Ammunition requirements

– Logistic reach

– Spreadsheet tools of convoy movement

© Dstl 2003

11 April 2023 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Example Questions

• What is the ability of units of 16 Air Asslt Bde to occupy GOSPs against opposition?

• What is the effect of exchanging a BG of 16 Air Asslt Bde for a square BG of 7 Armd Bde?

© Dstl 2003

11 April 2023 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Methods Used

• Examination of force ratios using the BAMS static scoring system

• Estimation of attrition and battle outcome using the combat model WPT

© Dstl 2003

11 April 2023 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Force Comparisons

0

16 AirAssltBde

7 ArmdBde

16 AirAssltBde

7 ArmdBde

Inf Bn +Mor Bn

Tk Regt Mech InfBn

Inf Bde+ ArtyRegt

MechBde +Div Arty

Arm Bde+ DivArty

BA

MS

Sco

res

Iraqi Force3RHA

Square Armd BG 4Square Armd BG 3Square Armd BG 2Square Armd BG 17RHA

3 Regt AACD Sqn HCRPathfinder Pl1 R Irish

3 Para1 Para

BGs exchanged

© Dstl 2003

11 April 2023 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Fighting in the GOSPs

• Do not want to damage the installations

• Limited lines of sight, built-up area – urban combat?

THEREFORE:

• No UK Arty, Avn or Air support

• Iraqi artillery can be used

• Apply degradation factors, from historical analysis, to attrition rates

© Dstl 2003

11 April 2023 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Impact of Combat Work

• Military planners also do modelling

• Force ratio work and battle modelling generally reinforced rather than contradicted military assessment

• No ‘wargaming’ carried out - no time!

• Provided a degree of independent corroboration

© Dstl 2003

11 April 2023 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Logistic Reach

RS

G A

T K

UW

AIT

BF

I AT

VIP

ER

X Km from RSG to Fwd Ech

BULK FUEL STRETCH

MATERIEL STRETCH

Y Km from Viper to Fwd Ech

Z DAYSBULK FUEL

Z DAYSMATERIELTIME REQUIRED TO MOVE START UP STOCKS & SUSTAIN FWD ELEMENTS

© Dstl 2003

11 April 2023 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Moving Into Iraq