optics market overview & future opportunities · optics market overview & future...

Optics Market Overview& Future Opportunities

Tom Hausken, PhDOSA Senior Industry Advisor

14 December 2017

The global economy is unevenGDP Annual Growthat Market Prices (%)

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2017).

U.S. growth remains steady2-3% annual growth expected.Higher interest rates?“Hidden” unemployment also down.Oil prices are moderate & stable. Dollar softening.

Sources: (Left) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 29 November 2016. U.S. real q-over-q (chained, annualized, seasonally-adjusted) percent GDP growth. (Top) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 5 December 2016.

Price of foreign currencies buying U.S. dollars(normalized to Q1 2012)

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

Estimated photonics production

Source: OIDA (2017).

4.9% 4.5%

Photonics employment

China820,000 Japan

820,000

South Korea840,000

Taiwan400,000

Other countries110,000

Employment engaged in manufacturing optics and photonics components and enabled-products totals 3,500,000 worldwide.

U.S.385,000 jobs

Europe325,000

Photonics by sector

Source: OIDA (2017).

Production (Normalized

to 2013)

Growth stories

Revenues

Source: OIDA from company filings. Trumpf and II-VI values are for fiscal years ending June 30.

Laser Market: The Long View

Source: OIDA (2016) from Laser Focus World magazine issues.

Nominal sales = 13.8% CAGRGDP + Inflation = 7.5% CAGRInflation only = 4.1% CAGR

Nominal sales = 6.5% CAGRGDP + Inflation = 5.7% CAGRInflation only = 2.9% CAGR

Photonics: the long view

Source: OIDA (2016).

End-use

SystemIntegration

Component

Materials

Enabling Disciplines

Scie

nce

Tech

nolo

gy/

Appl

icat

ion

Appl

ied

Scie

nce

From science to vertical marketsRevenues and Funding

Universal drivers: Cost, automation and mobility

Applied Optics, Spectroscopy, Information Theory

Biology, Medicine (eg, DNA, proteins, cells)

Materials Science, Chemistry (eg, crystallography)

Quantum photonicsIntegrated photonics & nanophotonics

Metamaterials & plasmonicsOrganic photonic materials

Attosecond & compact x-ray sourcesPetawatt lasers & physics of high fields

Traffic &the Cloud

SWaP

Biometrics

DEW

QKD

Renewables

Perovskites

LIDAR

Imagerecognition

400G

PICs

PersonalizedMedicine

POC tools

Adv. imaging

kW lasersEUV

Quantumsensors

Industry 4.0Made in China

AR-VR

Facerecognition

“AppleEconomy”

Design

OLEDs

Follow the money: U.S. VC investment

Source: PwC/CB Insights MoneyTree. New U.S. venture investment using a 2-year rolling average, in US$ billions. OIDA estimated 2017 based on the first three quarters.

Selected developments relevantto optics and photonics

Belt and Road ProjectMade in China 2025

Quantum technologies

North America: driven by commercial economyChina and Europe: top-down policy is prominent

The “Apple Economy”:consumer products, autonomous vehicles,

IoT, AI & cloud

Industry 4.0Quantum technologies

Europe post-Brexit

Sensors and automation• LIDAR and self-driving cars, aircraft, & submersibles• Gesture recognition & “touch free” 3D imaging• Virtual and augmented reality• Face recognition and other biometrics• Robotic surgery• Humanoid robot caregivers• Robotic security and soldiers• Internet of Everything—

eg, quantum photonic sensors, atomic clocks, wearables

• New techniques: light field imaging, computational imaging

Top to bottom: U.S. Army Armed Robotic Vehicle variant of MULE. Giraffplus (European Commission project). Commercial unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV, or drone).

Ground vehicles

Sources: Omnivision illustration of automotive imaging applications, Otto self-driving truck, Toyota Prius with solar cell roof, BMW laser headlight.

Autonomous car forecast

Source: Boston Consulting Group (2015) via futurism.com.

Global LIDAR market forecasts

Source: Various sources, see text.

Revenues(US$ Billions)

Beyond self-driving cars

Sources clockwise from top left: Pop.Up proposed autonomous vehicle from Airbus,U.S. Army armed robotic vehicle variant of MULE,European Commission project Giraffplus home health aide (not using LIDAR), Neato Robotics Botvac (2017).

3 variations on stereo 3-D headsets

Source: OSA’s Optics & Photonics News, (June 2016).

AR/VR hardware revenue forecasts

Sources: See previous slides.

AR/VR hardwarerevenue

(US$ billion)

AR/VR shipments (million units)

Artificial Intelligence

Source: blogs.nvidia.com.

Life science private R&D spending

Source: (Upper left) OIDA (2017) from company financial reports. (Lower right) PwC/NVCA MoneyTreeReport; data provided from Thomson Reuters.

U.S. Dept. of Defense Outlays

Source: U.S. Department of Defense National Defense Budget Estimates for FY2018, outlays in constant (adjusted) dollars (Dec 2017).

Funding ($B)

Data source: U.S. government budget documents. All U.S. funding values represent fiscal years. Army funding for selected BA2-BA5 R&D programs. Directed energy represents selected Air Force and MDA BA1-BA3 R&D programs.

OIDA HighlightsAdvocacy

– SBIR and Plug & Play– Lobbying support – Export control revisions– AIM Photonics, BRIDG

Roadmapping workshops & reports– Integrated photonics– Sensors– Life sciences– Market Updates & other reports

Other benefits– WORKinOPTICS.com– Exhibit and advertising discounts

Also check out OSA’s Innovation School!

THANK YOU!

Tom Hauskenthausken@osa.org