oracle demand planning overview
Post on 08-Apr-2015
497 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
Oracle Demand PlanningOracle Demand Planning
OverviewOverview
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
Oracle Demand Planning Modular Courses
Oracle Demand Planning Modular Courses
• Overview of Oracle Demand Planning (ODP)
• Administering Oracle Demand Planning
• Generating Forecasts
• Analyzing and Managing Forecasts
• Overview of Oracle Demand Planning (ODP)
• Administering Oracle Demand Planning
• Generating Forecasts
• Analyzing and Managing Forecasts
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
ObjectivesObjectives
After completing this module, you should be able to:
• Explain features and benefits of Oracle Demand Planning
• Describe demand planning roles
• Explain demand planning process steps
After completing this module, you should be able to:
• Explain features and benefits of Oracle Demand Planning
• Describe demand planning roles
• Explain demand planning process steps
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
What is Demand Planning?What is Demand Planning?
• Planning for future demand scenarios
– Estimate future demand based on market conditions
– Collaborative planning process involving internal and external participants
• A crucial function for improving operational plans
– Optimal resource allocation
– Reduced inventory levels
– Improved customer satisfaction
– Exception-based forecast tracking and notifications
• Planning for future demand scenarios
– Estimate future demand based on market conditions
– Collaborative planning process involving internal and external participants
• A crucial function for improving operational plans
– Optimal resource allocation
– Reduced inventory levels
– Improved customer satisfaction
– Exception-based forecast tracking and notifications
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
Why is Demand Planning Difficult?Why is Demand Planning Difficult?
• Short product life cycles
• Evolving market conditions
• Global markets
• Multiple sales channels
• Multiple sources of information
• Demand distortions
• Short product life cycles
• Evolving market conditions
• Global markets
• Multiple sales channels
• Multiple sources of information
• Demand distortions
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
Demand DistortionsDemand Distortions
• State of the economy
• Promotions
• Competitors’ responses to promotions
• Product introduction and cannibalization
• Lot-size discounts
• Fiscal budget cycle
• Allocations
• Panic and perceptions
• Hedging, commodity futures
• State of the economy
• Promotions
• Competitors’ responses to promotions
• Product introduction and cannibalization
• Lot-size discounts
• Fiscal budget cycle
• Allocations
• Panic and perceptions
• Hedging, commodity futures
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
Why is Demand Planning Important? Demand Planning Benefits
Why is Demand Planning Important? Demand Planning Benefits
• Improve forecast accuracy
– Manage demand distortions
– Plan collaboratively
• Improve operational plans
– Inventory reduction
– Higher fill rates
– Higher revenue
• Improve forecast accuracy
– Manage demand distortions
– Plan collaboratively
• Improve operational plans
– Inventory reduction
– Higher fill rates
– Higher revenue
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
Improving Operational PlansImproving Operational Plans
Forecasting
Planning Operations
Market1 2
34
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
Impact of Forecast Accuracy on Safety Stock Requirements
Impact of Forecast Accuracy on Safety Stock Requirements
Safety stock (SS) buffer inventory is proportional Safety stock (SS) buffer inventory is proportional to the average magnitude of forecast errors.to the average magnitude of forecast errors.
SSSSSSSS
Large deviationsLarge deviations Small deviationsSmall deviations
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
Basing Demand Forecasts on Sales HistoryBasing Demand Forecasts on Sales History
• Statistical extrapolation of history provides an objective baseline
• Issues:
– Sales history usually underestimates the actual level of demand.
– The effect of unique future events are not reflected in sales history data.
– Products with short life cycles do not provide enough historical sales data to identify trends and patterns.
• Solution: Supplement historical sales data with information about future events, promotions and customer plans.
• Statistical extrapolation of history provides an objective baseline
• Issues:
– Sales history usually underestimates the actual level of demand.
– The effect of unique future events are not reflected in sales history data.
– Products with short life cycles do not provide enough historical sales data to identify trends and patterns.
• Solution: Supplement historical sales data with information about future events, promotions and customer plans.
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
Key FeaturesKey Features
• Internet collaboration
• View and work with data that isrelevant to responsibilities
• Integrate demand forecasts into Advanced Supply Chain Planning
• Unlimited forecast scenarios
• Multidimensional analysis
• Multiple statistical methods
• Automatic selection of best-fit model
• Exception reporting and feedback
• Internet collaboration
• View and work with data that isrelevant to responsibilities
• Integrate demand forecasts into Advanced Supply Chain Planning
• Unlimited forecast scenarios
• Multidimensional analysis
• Multiple statistical methods
• Automatic selection of best-fit model
• Exception reporting and feedback
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
100% Internet-Based Solution100% Internet-Based Solution
• Web browser access
• Low cost to deploy
• Global visibility
• Web browser access
• Low cost to deploy
• Global visibility
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
Collaborative ForecastingCollaborative Forecasting
Actual SalesActual Sales Demand plansDemand plans
PeoplePeople
ForecastForecast
EventsEventsPromotionsPromotions
Internet
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
Information VisibilityInformation Visibility
• Deploy information using the World-Wide Web
• Information visibility across the supply chain
• Internal and external collaboration with secured access to detailed plans
• Workflow gets the right information to the right place quickly
• Deploy information using the World-Wide Web
• Information visibility across the supply chain
• Internal and external collaboration with secured access to detailed plans
• Workflow gets the right information to the right place quickly
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
Continuous ImprovementContinuous Improvement
SupplyChain
Planning
Establish ForecastAccuracy Targets
MeasureResults
Out ofTolerance
AlertNotifications
Adjust Forecast
• Integrated performance management
• Exception notifications
• Oracle Workflow process automation
• Integrated performance management
• Exception notifications
• Oracle Workflow process automation
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
Integrated ModulesIntegrated Modules
GlobalGlobalAvailable-to-PromiseAvailable-to-Promise
Demand Demand PlanningPlanning
Multi-Multi- Org.Org.Planning
PlanningServerServer
Multi-Multi- Org.Org.Planning
PlanningServerServer
Supply ChainSupply ChainPlanning EnginePlanning Engine
Business Business Intelligence SystemIntelligence System
Transaction Transaction SystemsSystems
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
Planning Server InformationPlanning Server Information
• Historical sales
• Marketing plans
• Sales plans
• Historical sales
• Marketing plans
• Sales plansMulti-Multi- Org.Org.Planning
PlanningServerServer
Multi-Multi- Org.Org.Planning
PlanningServerServer
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
Information FlowInformation Flow
ERPERP
DemandDemandPlanningPlanning
ASCPASCPBooking dataBooking dataShipment dataShipment dataManufacturing forecastManufacturing forecast
Sales forecastSales forecastSales opportunitiesSales opportunitiesMarketing eventsMarketing events
CRM CRM
ScenariosScenarios
Supply planSupply plan
Planned ordersPlanned orders
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
Performance FeedbackPerformance Feedback
Monitorperformance
Reportexceptions
Take correctiveactions
Compare actualto forecast
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
General FeaturesGeneral Features
• Activity log
• Annotated forecast changes
• Multiple allocation rules
• Create new forecast
• New product introductions
• Event and promotion management
• Ad hoc and predefined reports
• Activity log
• Annotated forecast changes
• Multiple allocation rules
• Create new forecast
• New product introductions
• Event and promotion management
• Ad hoc and predefined reports
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
Statistical and Analytical FeaturesStatistical and Analytical Features
• Multiple forecasting techniques
• Selection of best-fit model
• Multidimensional analysis
• Performance tracking
• Multiple forecasting techniques
• Selection of best-fit model
• Multidimensional analysis
• Performance tracking
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
Statistical Forecasting MethodsStatistical Forecasting Methods
• Exponential smoothing
– Single
– Double
– Holt-Winters
• Regression
– Linear
– 5 types of non linear
• Exponential smoothing
– Single
– Double
– Holt-Winters
• Regression
– Linear
– 5 types of non linear
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
Selection of Best-Fit ModelSelection of Best-Fit Model
• Geneva forecast engine
• Rapidly determines which forecasting models are likely to produce the best statistical forecasts
• Best-fit selection from nine models
• Outlier detection and filtering
• Seasonality and erratic demand filtering
• Geneva forecast engine
• Rapidly determines which forecasting models are likely to produce the best statistical forecasts
• Best-fit selection from nine models
• Outlier detection and filtering
• Seasonality and erratic demand filtering
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
Scenarios, Reconciliation, and Consolidation Features
Scenarios, Reconciliation, and Consolidation Features
• Multiple forecasting scenarios
• Top-down, middle-out, and bottom-up allocation strategies
• Forecast adjustments
• Multiple units of measure
• Convert units to currency and vice versa
• Consolidation of individual forecasts
• Multiple forecasting scenarios
• Top-down, middle-out, and bottom-up allocation strategies
• Forecast adjustments
• Multiple units of measure
• Convert units to currency and vice versa
• Consolidation of individual forecasts
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
ScenariosScenarios
Salesforecasts
Customerforecasts
Unconstrainedforecasts
Statisticalforecasts
Manufacturingforecasts
Marketingevents
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
Demand AnalysisDemand Analysis
• Unconstrained demand forecasts
• Constrained supply plans
• Resource cost versus lost sales
• Unconstrained demand forecasts
• Constrained supply plans
• Resource cost versus lost sales
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
Oracle8Oracle8ii
TutorTutor
DesignerDesigner
DiscovererDiscoverer
GeneralGeneralLedgerLedger
Product
GeographyGeography
Multidimensional ModelMultidimensional Model
SalesSales
TimeTime
AsiaAsia
EuropeEurope
AmericasAmericas
MayMayJuneJune JulyJuly AugustAugust
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
Three Typical DimensionsThree Typical Dimensions
Pro
du
ctP
rod
uct
TimeTimeGeographicGeographicRegionRegion
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
Multidimensional FlexibilityMultidimensional Flexibility
Analyze how sales for a product and location change over time
Compare demand for different products bytime and location
Compare regional demand by time and product
Perform Ad Hocqueries
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
FiscalCalendarhierarchy
GregorianCalendarhierarchy
ManufacturingCalendarhierarchy
Time DimensionHierarchiesTime DimensionHierarchies
ManufacturingManufacturingperiodperiod
YearYear Fiscal yearFiscal year
Fiscal quarterFiscal quarter
Fiscal monthFiscal month
ManufacturingManufacturingweekweek
QuarterQuarter
MonthMonth
AllAll
DayDay
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
ProductCategoryhierarchy
ProductFamily
hierarchy
Product Dimension HierarchiesProduct Dimension Hierarchies
AllAll
Product familyProduct family Product categoryProduct category
ProductProduct
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
CustomerClass
hierarchy
CustomerGroup
hierarchyGeographyhierarchy
Geography Dimension HierarchiesGeography Dimension Hierarchies
AreaAreaCustomerCustomer
classclass
CustomerCustomerRegionRegion
CustomerCustomergroupgroup
AllAll
Ship-to locationShip-to location
CountryCountry
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
Demand Planning RolesDemand Planning Roles
• Demand Planning System Administrator
– Demand Planning Integration Administrator
– Demand Planning Administrator
• Demand Planning System Administrator
– Demand Planning Integration Administrator
– Demand Planning Administrator
Demand Planning Demand Planning Integration Administrator:Integration Administrator:
Demand planningDemand planningserver, RDBMSserver, RDBMS
Demand Planning Demand Planning Administrator:Administrator:
ExpressExpress
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
Demand Planning RolesDemand Planning Roles
• Demand Planner
– Analyzing and forecasting demand
– Submitting scenarios
• Demand Planning Manager
– Review and adjust forecasts
– Submit final scenarios
• Demand Planner
– Analyzing and forecasting demand
– Submitting scenarios
• Demand Planning Manager
– Review and adjust forecasts
– Submit final scenarios
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
Demand Planning Setup StepsDemand Planning Setup Steps
System Administrator:
1. Set up instances.
2. Create database links.
Demand Planning Integration Administrator:
3. Create dimension definitions.
4. Create demand plan definitions.
5. Define scenarios.
6. Run collection programs to load interface tables.
System Administrator:
1. Set up instances.
2. Create database links.
Demand Planning Integration Administrator:
3. Create dimension definitions.
4. Create demand plan definitions.
5. Define scenarios.
6. Run collection programs to load interface tables.
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
Demand Planning Process StepsDemand Planning Process Steps
Demand Planning Administrator:
7. Load data into Oracle Express database.
8. Generate baseline forecasts.
9. Assign data to users, generate reports, and notify users.
Demand Planning Administrator:
7. Load data into Oracle Express database.
8. Generate baseline forecasts.
9. Assign data to users, generate reports, and notify users.
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
Demand Planning Process StepsDemand Planning Process Steps
Demand Planners:
10. Analyze and adjust forecasts.
11. Submit saved forecast scenarios to the shared server.
Demand Planners:
10. Analyze and adjust forecasts.
11. Submit saved forecast scenarios to the shared server.
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
Demand Planning Process StepsDemand Planning Process Steps
Demand Planning Administrator:
12. Consolidate forecasts.
Demand Planning Manager:
13. Perform managerial review of forecasts.
Demand Planning Administrator:
14. Submit final forecasts to the planning server.
Demand Planning Administrator:
12. Consolidate forecasts.
Demand Planning Manager:
13. Perform managerial review of forecasts.
Demand Planning Administrator:
14. Submit final forecasts to the planning server.
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
Demand Planning Process StepsDemand Planning Process Steps
Demand Planning Administrator:
15. Clean up the database and prepare for the next round of planning.
Demand Planning Administrator:
15. Clean up the database and prepare for the next round of planning.
$10$10
2727
X49X49
1267612676
14141212Q85Q85
$91 $91
Database
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
SummarySummary
In this lesson, you should have learned how to:
• Explain features and benefits of Oracle Demand Planning (ODP)
• Describe demand planning roles and processes
In this lesson, you should have learned how to:
• Explain features and benefits of Oracle Demand Planning (ODP)
• Describe demand planning roles and processes
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
4141
Review QuestionReview Question
Regarding statistical demand forecasts based onsales history data —
1. A strength is their ability to account for the effects of future events, promotions and customer plans.
2. They are useful for providing an objective baseline.
3. They become more useful when products have shorter life cycles.
4. They tend to overestimate the actual level of demand.
Regarding statistical demand forecasts based onsales history data —
1. A strength is their ability to account for the effects of future events, promotions and customer plans.
2. They are useful for providing an objective baseline.
3. They become more useful when products have shorter life cycles.
4. They tend to overestimate the actual level of demand.
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
4242
Review QuestionReview Question
Regarding statistical demand forecasts based onsales history data —
1. A strength is their ability to account for the effects of future events, promotions and customer plans.
2. They are useful for providing an objective baseline.
3. They become more useful when products have shorter life cycles.
4. They tend to overestimate the actual level of demand.
Regarding statistical demand forecasts based onsales history data —
1. A strength is their ability to account for the effects of future events, promotions and customer plans.
2. They are useful for providing an objective baseline.
3. They become more useful when products have shorter life cycles.
4. They tend to overestimate the actual level of demand.
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
4343
Review QuestionReview Question
A large customer uses the internet to communicate aforecast of their demand for your products to yourdemand planning system. This collaborative customer is acting in the role of:
1. Demand plan manager
2. Demand planner
3. Demand planning administrator
4. Demand planning integration administrator
5. System administrator
A large customer uses the internet to communicate aforecast of their demand for your products to yourdemand planning system. This collaborative customer is acting in the role of:
1. Demand plan manager
2. Demand planner
3. Demand planning administrator
4. Demand planning integration administrator
5. System administrator
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
4444
Review Question SolutionReview Question Solution
A large customer uses the internet to communicate aforecast of their demand for your products to yourdemand planning system. This collaborative customer is acting in the role of:
1. Demand plan manager
2. Demand planner
3. Demand planning administrator
4. Demand planning integration administrator
5. System administrator
A large customer uses the internet to communicate aforecast of their demand for your products to yourdemand planning system. This collaborative customer is acting in the role of:
1. Demand plan manager
2. Demand planner
3. Demand planning administrator
4. Demand planning integration administrator
5. System administrator
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
4545
Review QuestionReview Question
The demand plan manager is responsible for:
1. Setting up instances
2. Defining scenarios
3. Generating baseline forecasts
4. Assigning data slice to demand planners
5. Reviewing and approving final forecasts
The demand plan manager is responsible for:
1. Setting up instances
2. Defining scenarios
3. Generating baseline forecasts
4. Assigning data slice to demand planners
5. Reviewing and approving final forecasts
Copyright Oracle Corporation, 2000. All rights reserved.®
4646
Review Question SolutionReview Question Solution
The demand plan manager is responsible for:
1. Setting up instances
2. Defining scenarios
3. Generating baseline forecasts
4. Assigning data slice to demand planners
5. Reviewing and approving final forecasts
The demand plan manager is responsible for:
1. Setting up instances
2. Defining scenarios
3. Generating baseline forecasts
4. Assigning data slice to demand planners
5. Reviewing and approving final forecasts
top related