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Outer Banks, NC HMP Update: Hazard ID & Risk Assessment
Meeting 3 – Outer Banks HMPCJuly 24, 2019
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
• Where we are in the planning process– Step 4 & Step 5– Organization in the plan
• Hazard Identification– State plan & existing Albemarle Regional plan– Major Disaster Declarations
• Asset Inventory– Building Exposure– Critical Facilities
• Hazard Profiles: Risk & Vulnerability Assessment
• Discuss Objectives & Actions• Next Steps and Questions
Agenda
2 A presentation by Wood.
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
– Step 1: Organize to Prepare the Plan– Step 2: Involve the Public – ongoing– Step 3: Coordinate – ongoing– Step 4: Assess the Hazard– Step 5: Assess the Problem– Step 6: Set Goals– Step 7: Review Possible Activities– Step 8: Draft an Action Plan– Step 9: Adopt the Plan– Step 10: Implement, Evaluate, & Revise the Plan
Planning Process
3 A presentation by Wood.
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
– Step 4: Assess the Hazard– Step 5: Assess the Problem
Risk is a combination of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure; each is assessed to determine a hazard’s
potential impact and overall priority
Hazard Identification & Risk Assessment (HIRA)
4 A presentation by Wood.
1. Identify Hazards
2. Profile Hazard Events
3. Inventory Assets
4. Estimate Losses
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
Data collected through this process has been incorporated into the following sections of this plan: • Section 4.2: Hazard Identification identifies the natural and human-
caused hazards that threaten the planning area.• Section 4.3: Risk Assessment Methodology and Assumptions• Section 4.4: Asset Inventory details the population, buildings, and
critical facilities at risk within the planning area.• Section 4.5: Hazard Profiles, Analysis, and Vulnerability discusses
the threat to the planning area, describes previous occurrences of hazard events and the likelihood of future occurrences, and assesses the planning area’s exposure to each hazard profiled; considering assets at risk, critical facilities, and future development trends.
• Section 4.6: Conclusions on Hazard Risk summarizes the results of the Priority Risk Index and defines each hazard as a Low, Medium, or High Risk hazard.
HIRA Organization
5 A presentation by Wood.
Hazard Identification
6
12 Total Declarations• 9 hurricane events
• 3 severe weather events (including flooding and tornadoes)
Major Disaster Declarations (Outer Banks Region)
7 A presentation by Wood.
Disaster # Dec. Date Incident Type Event Title
4393 9/14/2018 Hurricane Hurricane Florence
4285 10/10/2016 Hurricane Hurricane Matthew
4019 8/31/2011 Hurricane Hurricane Irene
1969 4/19/2011 Severe Storm(s) Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding
1608 10/7/2005 Hurricane Hurricane Ophelia
1490 9/18/2003 Hurricane Hurricane Isabel
1292 9/16/1999 Hurricane Hurricane Floyd
1291 9/9/1999 Hurricane Hurricane Dennis1240 8/27/1998 Hurricane Hurricane Bonnie
1200 1/15/1998 Severe Storm(s) Severe Storms and Flooding
1003 9/10/1993 Hurricane Hurricane Emily
881 12/2/1988 Tornado Severe Storms & Tornadoes
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
Review of Hazards in Existing Plans
8 A presentation by Wood.
HazardIncluded in 2018 State
HMP?
Included in 2015 Albemarle Regional
HMP?
To be included inOuter Banks Regional HMP
Update?Flooding Yes Yes YesHurricanes and Coastal Hazards Yes Yes Yes (evaluated separately)Nor’easters No Yes NoSevere Winter Weather (Freezing Rain, Snowstorms, Blizzards, Wind Chill, Extreme Cold) Yes Yes Yes
Extreme Heat Yes Yes YesEarthquake Yes Yes YesWildfire Yes Yes YesDam Failure Yes Yes NoLevee Failure No Yes NoDrought Yes Yes YesSevere Thunderstorm (Tornado, Hailstorm, Torrential Rain, Thunderstorm Wind, High Wind, Lightning)
Yes Yes (Tornadoes evaluated as a separate hazard)
Yes (Tornado evaluated as separate hazard)
Landslide Yes Yes NoSinkholes Yes Yes NoErosion Yes Yes Yes (under Coastal Hazards)Rip Currents No Yes Yes (under Coastal Hazards)Sea Level Rise No No Yes (Under Coastal Hazards)Tsunami No Yes Yes (under Earthquake)Hazardous Materials Incident Yes No YesRadiological Emergency Yes No NoTerrorism Yes Yes Yes
Infectious Disease YesYes (as Public Health Events and Pandemic
Events)No
Cyber Threat Yes Yes YesElectromagnetic Pulse Yes No NoActive Shooter/Mass Casualty No Yes Yes (with Terrorism)Transportation Infrastructure Impacts No Yes Yes
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
• Dam Failure: NC Dam Inventory does not list dams in either county. • Levee Failure: USACE’s National Levee Database does not identify any
USACE or non-USACE levees in either county.• Landslide: The 2015 Albemarle plan and 2018 State plan addressed this
hazard, however the regional plan found minimal risk and the State plan notes risk is concentrated in the western portion of North Carolina.
• Sinkholes: The 2015 Albemarle plan and 2018 State plan addressed this hazard, however the regional plan found minimal risk. Per the State HMP, vulnerability to sinkhole is low in the region.
• Infectious Disease: State HMP reports the entire State is equally at risk, but vulnerability is low across all but one impact category. The 2015 Albemarle plan found this to be a low priority hazard.
• Electromagnetic Pulse: The region considers this hazard more appropriately addressed at the State level.
Hazard Identification
Hazards Not Included
A presentation by Wood.9
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
• Coastal Hazards (Erosion, Rip Current, and Sea Level Rise)• Drought• Earthquake• Extreme Heat• Flood• Hurricane and Tropical Storm• Severe Weather (Thunderstorm/Lightning/Hail)• Severe Winter Storm• Tornado• Wildfire• Hazardous Materials Incident• Radiological Incident• Cyber Threat• Terrorism• Transportation Infrastructure Failure
Hazards Profiled
10 A presentation by Wood.
Asset Inventory
11
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
Asset Inventory
Population
A presentation by Wood.12
Jurisdiction2010 Census Population
Elderly(Age 65 and Over)
Children(Age 5 and Under)
CurrituckCurrituck County (Unincorporated)
23,540 3,041 1,329
DareDare County (Unincorporated) 16,893 2,574 916Town of Duck 369 56 20Town of Kill Devil Hills 6,635 1,011 360Town of Kitty Hawk 3,270 498 177Town of Manteo 1,258 192 68Town of Nags Head 2,786 425 151Town of Southern Shores 2,695 411 146Subtotal Dare 33,906 5,167 1,838Total 57,446 8,208 3,167
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
Asset Inventory
Building Exposure
A presentation by Wood.13
Jurisdiction Building Count Building Value
CurrituckCurrituck County (Unincorporated) 17,069 $2,979,468,915
DareDare County (Unincorporated) 13,634 $2,386,317,125
Town of Duck 2,400 $736,869,444
Town of Kill Devil Hills 5,972 $974,106,060
Town of Kitty Hawk 2,803 $637,910,353
Town of Manteo 918 $282,189,726
Town of Nags Head 4,827 $1,094,947,456
Town of Southern Shores 2,496 $685,384,316
Subtotal Dare 33,050 $6,797,724,480
Total 310,483 $82,605,696,519
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
Asset Inventory
Critical Facilities
A presentation by Wood.14
Sector Asset Count Value
Emergency ManagementEOC 2 $292,467.00
Fire 31 $23,196,301.49
Police 10 $4,675,679.25
Government School 80 $200,691,765.00
EnergyPower Plant 5 $90,852,743.00
Substation 4 $30,000,000.00
Water Treatment Plant 51 $97,575,640.50
Agriculture and Food Distribution Hog Farm 1 $12,148.43
Total 184 $447,296,744.67
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
Critical Facilities, Currituck
15 A presentation by Wood.
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
Critical Facilities, Dare
16 A presentation by Wood.
• Note: Critical facilities maps will be provided by community in each jurisdictional annex.
Hazard Profiles
17
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
Hazard Profile Summary
18 A presentation by Wood.
Hazard Probability ImpactSpatial Extent
Warning Time DurationPRI
ScoreCoastal Hazards: Erosion1 Likely Limited Moderate More than 24 hrs Less than 6 hrs 2.3Coastal Hazards: Rip Current1 Highly Likely Critical Small Less than 6 hrs Less than 24 hrs 3.1Coastal Hazards: Sea Level Rise1 Likely Critical Moderate More than 24 hrs More than 1 week 2.9Drought Possible Minor Large More than 24 hrs More than 1 week 2.2Earthquake Unlikely Minor Large Less than 6 hrs Less than 6 hrs 1.9
Extreme Heat Highly Likely Limited Large More than 24 hrs Less than 1 week 3.0
Flood Likely Critical Moderate 6 to 12 hours Less than 1 week 3.0
Hurricane & Tropical Storm Likely Catastrophic Large More than 24 hrs Less than 1 week 3.3
Severe Weather: Hail2 Highly Likely Minor Small Less than 6 hrs Less than 6 hrs 2.4
Severe Weather: Lightning2 Highly Likely Minor Negligible Less than 6 hrs Less than 6 hrs 2.2Severe Weather: Thunderstorm Winds2 Highly Likely Limited Large Less than 6 hrs Less than 6 hrs 3.1
Severe Winter Storm Highly Likely Minor Large More than 24 hrs Less than 1 week 2.7
Tornado Likely Critical Negligible Less than 6 hrs Less than 6 hrs 2.5
Wildfire Possible Limited Moderate Less than 6 hrs Less than 1 week 2.5
Hazardous Materials Incident Likely Minor Negligible Less than 6 hrs Less than 24 hrs 2.0
Radiological Emergency Unlikely Limited Small Less than 6 hrs More than 1 week 2.1
Cyber Attack Possible Minor Small Less than 6 hrs More than 1 week 2.1
Terrorism Unlikely Catastrophic Small Less than 6 hrs More than 1 week 2.7Transportation Infrastructure Failure
Possible Limited Small Less than 6 hrs More than 1 week 2.4
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
Coastal Hazard(Erosion)
A presentation by Wood.19
Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationLikely Limited Moderate More than 24 hrs Less than 6 hrs
• Erosion can be measured as a rate of change from a previous condition
• According to NCEI, 15 events (coastal flood, storm surge, tropical storm, hurricane) caused erosion between 1999-2018
• Coastal erosion is expected to increase as a result of rising seas
• May increase sediment loads and change riverine and coastal topography
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019 A presentation by Wood.20
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
Coastal Hazard(Rip Current)
A presentation by Wood.21
Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationHighly Likely Critical Small Less than 6 hrs Less than 24 hrs
• Powerful, narrow channels of seaward flowing water along the coast.
• Three major types of Rip Currents: Bathymetrically controlled, structurally controlled, and hydrodynamically controlled
• NCEI Reports 25 rip current events causing 24 deaths between 1999-2018 (23 occurred in Dare)
• NWS Rip Current Risk provided for Corolla, Duck, Kitty Hawk, Kill Devil Hills, Nags Head, Rodanthe, Avon, Buxton, and Frisco
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
Coastal Hazard(Sea Level Rise)
A presentation by Wood.22
Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationLikely Critical Moderate More than 24 hrs More than 1 wk
• Global Sea Level rise can be attributed to two separate mechanics: global temperature increases and melting of ice over land
• USGS’s Coastal Vulnerability Index shows coast’s susceptibility to sea level rise
• Duck, NC gauge: 4.62 mm/yr• Oregon Inlet gauge: 4.69 mm/yr
1.5 ft in 100 years
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
Coastal Hazard(Sea Level Rise)
A presentation by Wood.23
Estimated Impact of 2 Foot SLR on Outer Banks Region
Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationLikely Critical Moderate More than 24 hrs More than 1 wk
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
Coastal Hazard(Sea Level Rise)
A presentation by Wood.24
Example:SLR Impacts on Manteo
• All of the Outer Banks region is susceptible
• Most severe impacts are on agricultural and recreational industries
• Can impact public water supply if groundwater levels fall
• Can cause increased risk of wildfire
Drought
25 A presentation by Wood. Outer Banks Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 Mar. 4, 2019
Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationPossible Minor Large More than 24 hrs More than 1 week
Drought
26 A presentation by Wood.
• Currituck County: U.S. Drought Monitor reported the County was in some level of drought for 668 (of 992) weeks between January 1, 2000 – December 31, 2018 (67% of time); 4 weeks in “extreme drought”
• Dare County: 309 (of 992) weeks reported between 1/1/2000 – 12/31/2018 (32%); 1 week in “extreme drought”
• Droughts may become more frequent and intense in the future
Outer Banks Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 Mar. 4, 2019
Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationPossible Minor Large More than 24 hrs More than 1 week
Outer Banks Region averages $57,738 in crop
losses due to drought annually
according to USDA Crop
Insurance data(primarily in
Currituck County)
• Possibility for larger impacts from Charleston Fault, Central Virginia Seismic Zone, and Pembroke Faults
• Major ground shaking unlikely
Earthquake
27 A presentation by Wood.
Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationUnlikely Minor Large Less than 6 hrs Less than 6 hrs
Outer Banks Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 Mar. 4, 2019
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
Earthquake
28 A presentation by Wood.
Estimated Building Damages from 500-Year Earthquake Event:
Jurisdiction
All Buildings
Total Buildings at Risk
Num Num % of Total Estimated Damages
Currituck
Currituck County 17,069 5,164 30.3% $78,529
Dare
Dare County Unincorporated Areas 13,634 855 6.30% $10,319
Town of Duck 2,400 29 1.20% $357
Town of Kill Devil Hills 5,972 142 2.40% $4,744
Town of Kitty Hawk 2,803 73 2.60% $1,608
Town of Manteo 918 85 9.30% $2,162
Town of Nags Head 4,827 125 2.60% $5,370
Town of Southern Shores 2,496 18 0.70% $405
Subtotal Dare 33,050 1,327 4.02% $24,965
Total 50,119 6,491 12.95% $103,494
Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationUnlikely Minor Large Less than 6 hrs Less than 6 hrs
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
• Region averages between 79-88 hours per year with heat index temps >100°F
• Extreme temperatures likely to increase in severity and frequency
• NCEI reports two heat events in Currituck County, no injuries, fatalities, or property damage
• Vulnerable populations include: elderly, young children, isolated individuals
Extreme Heat
29 A presentation by Wood.
Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationHighly Likely Limited Large More than 24 hrs Less than 1 week
Extreme heat can cause heat stroke and even loss of life.
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
• Flooding types: Coastal and Localized• Coastal Flooding: Storm Surge (Hurricane/Nor’easter
Winds); High Tides; Tidal Waves
Flood
30 A presentation by Wood.
Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationLikely Critical Moderate 6 to 12 hours Less than 1 week
Structures located in a Special Flood Hazard Area Have a 26% Chance of Flooding During
the Life of a 30-Year Mortgage
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
Flood - Currituck
31 A presentation by Wood.
Flood Zone Acreage Percent ofTotal (%)
Zone A 4,294.32 1.51
Zone AE 123,599.50 43.44
Zone VE 70,531.84 24.79
Zone X (500-year)
15,108.54 5.31
Zone X (unshaded)
51,271.99 18.02
Open Water 19,716.44 6.93
SFHA Total 198,425.66 69.7
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
Flood - Dare
32 A presentation by Wood.
Flood Zone Acreage Percent ofTotal (%)
Zone A 25.20 0.00
Zone AE 268,267.60 34.13
Zone VE 126,595.90 16.11
Zone X (500-year)
20,904.54 2.66
Zone X (unshaded)
21,814.31 2.78
Open Water 348,447.40 44.33
SFHA Total 394,888.70 50.2
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
Flood
Historical Occurrences from NCEI
A presentation by Wood.33
Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationLikely Critical Moderate 6 to 12 hours Less than 1 week
TypeEvent Count
Deaths InjuriesProperty Damage
Crop Damage
CurrituckCoastal Flood 7 0 0 $5,935,000 $0Flash Flood 3 0 0 $0 $0Flood 8 0 0 $500,000 $0Heavy Rain 17 0 0 $0 $0
DareCoastal Flood 19 0 0 $12,900,000 $0Flash Flood 11 0 0 $0 $0Flood 5 0 0 $0 $0Heavy Rain 1 0 0 $0 $0
Total 71 0 0 $19,335,000 $0
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
Building loss estimate from 100-year flood: $234.7 Million
Flood
34 A presentation by Wood.
Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationPossible Critical Small 6 to 12 hours Less than 1 week
JurisdictionAll Buildings Total Buildings at Risk
Num Num % of Total Estimated DamagesCurrituckUnincorporatedCurrituck
17,069 3,660 21.40% $49,731,852
DareUnincorporatedDare
13,634 6,132 45% $91,794,409
Duck 2,400 250 10.40% $9,291,300 Kill Devil Hills 5,972 1,514 25.40% $17,771,216 Kitty Hawk 2,803 911 32.50% $14,279,824 Manteo 918 598 65.10% $18,946,454 Nags Head 4,827 1,345 27.90% $29,229,159 SouthernShores
2,496 454 18.20% $3,625,897
Subtotal Dare 33,050 11,204 33.90% $184,938,259 Region Total 50,119 14,864 29.66% $234,670,111
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
Hurricane
35 A presentation by Wood.
Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationLikely Catastrophic Large More than 24 hrs Less than 1 week
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
Hurricane
36 A presentation by Wood.
Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationLikely Catastrophic Large More than 24 hrs Less than 24 hrs
• 96 hurricanes and tropical storms have passed within 50 miles of the Outer Banks since 1900, including a Category 4 storm and a Category 3 storm
• NCEI records 19 hurricanes and tropical storms causing $390,157,00 in property damages and $19,850,000 in crop damages due to hurricane wind between 1999-2018
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
Hurricane
37 A presentation by Wood.
Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationLikely Catastrophic Large More than 24 hrs Less than 24 hrs
Date Deaths/Injuries Property Damage3/6/2001 0/0 $0 4/10/2003 0/0 $0 3/10/2004 0/0 $10,000 4/3/2005 0/0 $0 4/15/2005 0/0 $50,000 5/6/2005 0/0 $0 9/9/2007 0/0 $0 7/20/2008 0/0 $0 10/19/2008 0/0 $10,000 9/2/2010 0/0 $380,000 8/26/2011 0/0 $1,000,000 8/26/2011 0/0 $40,000,000 10/28/2012 0/0 $13,000,000 6/6/2013 0/0 $0 7/3/2014 0/0 $1,500,000
Total 0/0 $55,950,000
Storm Surge Historical Occurrences (1999-2018)
*Note: this map does not accurately represent storm surge risk from sound side flooding
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
Building loss estimate from 50-Yr Hurricane Winds: $488m
Hurricane
38 A presentation by Wood.
Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationLikely Catastrophic Large More than 24 hrs Less than 24 hrs
JurisdictionAll Buildings Total Buildings at Risk
Num Num % of Total Estimated DamagesCurrituckUnincorporatedCurrituck
17,069 16,621 97.4% $97,781,954
DareUnincorporatedDare
13,634 13,248 97.2% $136,288,672
Duck 2,400 2,162 90.1% $29,320,693Kill Devil Hills 5,972 5,707 95.6% $52,199,323Kitty Hawk 2,803 2,691 96% $15,013,853Manteo 918 917 99.9% $29,344,801Nags Head 4,827 4,591 95.1% $112,155,307SouthernShores
2,496 2,477 99.2% $15,981,527
Subtotal Dare 33,050 31,793 96.2% $390,304,176 Region Total 50,119 48,414 96.6% $488,086,130
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
Severe Weather (Thunderstorm Wind)
39 A presentation by Wood.
Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationHighly Likely Limited Large Less than 6 hours Less than 6 hours
• Thunderstorm Wind – Winds, arising from convection (occurring within 30 minutes of lightning being observed or detected), with speeds of at least 58 mph, or winds of any speed (non-severe thunderstorm winds below 58 mph) producing a fatality, injury or damage.
• NCEI records 153 separate incidents of thunderstorm winds, causing 8 injuries and $1,225,000 in damages from thunderstorm winds
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
Severe Weather (Thunderstorm Wind)
40 A presentation by Wood.
Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationHighly Likely Limited Large Less than 6 hours Less than 6 hours
Building loss estimate from 50-Yr Thunderstorm Winds: $292m
JurisdictionAll Buildings Total Buildings at Risk
Num Num % of Total Estimated DamagesCurrituckUnincorporatedCurrituck
17,069 16,621 97.40% $110,222,060
DareUnincorporatedDare
13,634 13,248 97.20% $48,120,968
Duck 2,400 2,162 90.10% $29,320,693 Kill Devil Hills 5,972 5,707 95.60% $24,420,400 Kitty Hawk 2,803 2,691 96% $15,013,853 Manteo 918 917 99.90% $9,999,694 Nags Head 4,827 4,591 95.10% $39,091,878 SouthernShores
2,496 2,477 99.20% $15,981,527
Subtotal Dare 33,050 31,793 96.20% $181,949,013Region Total 50,119 48,414 96.60% $292,171,073
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
Severe Weather (Lightning)
41 A presentation by Wood.
Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationHighly Likely Minor Negligible Less than 6 hours Less than 6 hours
• NCEI records 12 lightning incidents causing 3 fatalities, 6 injuries, and $84,000 in property damages
• Most damages recorded were due to structure fires
• NCEI only records lightning events with reported injuries or damages
Average Lightning Frequency per sq. mi.
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019 A presentation by Wood.
• Average hailstone size in the Outer Banks Region is just under 1” in diameter
• Largest stone was 1.75” diameter, recorded on four separate occasions.
Severe Weather (Hail)
42
Location Number of Occurrences
Average Hail Diameter
Currituck 18 0.995”Dare 40 0.8755”
Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationHighly Likely Minor Small Less than 6 hours Less than 6 hours
Average Diameter Corresponding Household Object.25 inch Pea.5 inch Marble/Mothball.75 inch Dime/Penny.875 inch Nickel1.0 inch Quarter1.5 inch Ping-pong ball1.75 inch Golf ball2.0 inch Hen egg2.5 inch Tennis ball2.75 inch Baseball3.00 inch Teacup4.00 inch Grapefruit4.5 inch Softball
Historic Hail Occurrences
Hailstone Measurement Comparison Chart
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
Major risks include:• icy roadways• cost of snow and debris
removal• power outages• indirect losses such as
lost productivity
Severe Winter Storm
43 A presentation by Wood.
Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationHighly Likely Minor Large More than 24 hrs Less than 1 wk
Event Type Number of Recorded Incidents
Total Property Damage
CurrituckWinter Storm 15 $0Winter Weather 11 $0
Frost/Freeze 3 $0Blizzard 1 $0DareWinter Storm 9 $0Winter Weather 4 $0
Frost/Freeze 1 $0Heavy Snow 4 $0Total 48 $0
Disaster Number Date Disaster Type Incident Start Incident End
3110 1993 Severe Snow and Winter Storm 3/13/1993 3/17/1993
Past Occurrences, 1999-2018
Disaster Declarations for Winter Storm Events
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
• According to NCEI, the Outer Banks has had 16 tornados since 1999:– 5 injures– $1.34m in
property damage
Tornado
44 A presentation by Wood.
Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationLikely Critical Negligible Less than 6 hrs Less than 6 hrs
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
Tornado
45 A presentation by Wood.
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
• NC Forest Service Reports 559 fires burning 1,094.76 acres from 2009-2018– Dare: 226 fires, 731 acres burned– Currituck: 333 fires, 364 acres burned
• Above count does not include fires managed by local departments; actual fire count and acreage burned is likely higher
Wildfire
46 A presentation by Wood.
Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationPossible Limited Moderate Less than 6 hrs Less than 1 week
Housing Density WUI PopulationPercent of WUI Population WUI Acres
Percent of WUI Acres
LT 1hs/40ac 208 0.4 % 14,150 16.1 %
1hs/40ac to 1hs/20ac 310 0.6 % 8,519 9.7 %
1hs/20ac to 1hs/10ac 968 1.9 % 12,731 14.5 %
1hs/10ac to 1hs/5ac 2,016 3.9 % 12,669 14.4 %
1hs/5ac to 1hs/2ac 6,848 13.4 % 17,274 19.6 %
1hs/2ac to 3hs/1ac 29,030 56.8 % 20,332 23.1 %
GT 3hs/1ac 11,756 23.0 % 2,373 2.7 %
Total 51,136 100.0 % 88,048 100.0 %
Wildland Urban Interface
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
Wildfire
47 A presentation by Wood.
Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationPossible Limited Moderate Less than 6 hrs Less than 1 week
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
• Four sites in the planning area identified by EPA’s Toxic Release Inventory
• First responders are most likely to be exposed
• People in close proximity to facilities and transportation routes face higher risk
• EPA Right to Know Network reports 619 hazardous material releases from 1989 – 2018 (Dare: 518; Currituck: 101)
Hazardous Materials
48 A presentation by Wood.
Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationLikely Minor Negligible Less than 6 hours Less than 24 hrs
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
• Northern Currituck County falls within the IPZ from the Surry Power Station near Newport News, VA
• First responders may face heightened exposure
• An incident at the power station could contaminate fresh produce, water supplies, and other food products within the IPZ.
Radiological Incident
49 A presentation by Wood.
Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationUnlikely Limited Small Less than 6 hours More than 1 week
The 2011 Earthquake in Central Virginia caused the operators of the Surry Power Plant (Dominion Energy) to issue a Notification of
Unusual Event which was exited later the same day.
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
• Cyber crime can refer to many types of cyber attacks: DDoS, Malware, Espionage, Major Data Breaches, etc.; most severe is cyber terrorism
• Can occur anywhere in the planning region • 6 data breaches in North Carolina between 2005-2019 –
none specifically targeted at the Outer Banks region
Cyber Attack
50 A presentation by Wood.
Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationPossible Minor Small Less than 6 hrs More than 1 wk
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
• None of the hate groups active in North Carolina identified by the SPLC have a footprint in the Outer Banks; groups with a statewide footprint may have a presence
• Critical facilities and key infrastructure; cultural, historical, and symbolic locations; and highly populated events are more likely to be targeted
• First responders face heightened risk
Terrorism
51 A presentation by Wood.
Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationUnlikely Catastrophic Negligible Less than 6 hrs Less than 6 hrs
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
• Region depends on several key bridges, roads, and ferry crossings for access and services – integral for the functioning of the planning area
• Loss of major highway or key bridge could cause significant disruption
• 1990 – Portion of Herbert Bonner Bridge Collapsed; left approximately 5,000 Hatteras residents along with tourists stranded
Failure
52 A presentation by Wood.
Probability Impact Spatial Extent Warning Time DurationPossible Limited Small Less than 6 hrs More than 1 wk
Transportation Infrastructure
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
RISK ASSESSMENT CATEGORY
LEVEL DEGREE OF RISK CRITERIA INDEX WEIGHT
PROBABILITYWhat is the likelihood of a hazard event occurring in a
given year?
UNLIKELY LESS THAN 1% ANNUAL PROBABILITY 1
30%POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1 & 10% ANNUAL PROBABILITY 2
LIKELY BETWEEN 10 &100% ANNUAL PROBABILITY 3HIGHLY LIKELY 100% ANNUAL PROBABILTY 4
IMPACTIn terms of injuries, damage,
or death, would you anticipateimpacts to be minor, limited,
critical, or catastrophic when a significant hazard event
occurs?
MINORVERY FEW INJURIES, IF ANY. ONLY MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE & MINIMAL DISRUPTION ON QUALITY OF LIFE. TEMPORARY SHUTDOWN OF CRITICAL
FACILITIES.1
30%
LIMITEDMINOR INJURIES ONLY. MORE THAN 10% OF PROPERTY IN AFFECTED AREA DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. COMPLETE SHUTDOWN OF CRITICAL FACILITIES
FOR > 1 DAY2
CRITICALMULTIPLE DEATHS/INJURIES POSSIBLE.
MORE THAN 25% OF PROPERTY IN AFFECTED AREA DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. COMPLETE SHUTDOWN OF CRITICAL FACILITIES FOR > 1 WEEK.
3
CATASTROPHICHIGH NUMBER OF DEATHS/INJURIES POSSIBLE. MORE THAN 50% OF PROPERTY IN AFFECTED AREA DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. COMPLETE
SHUTDOWN OF CRITICAL FACILITIES > 30 DAYS.4
SPATIAL EXTENTHow large of an area could beimpacted by a hazard event?
Are impacts localized orregional?
NEGLIGIBLE LESS THAN 1% OF AREA AFFECTED 1
20%SMALL BETWEEN 1 & 10% OF AREA AFFECTED 2
MODERATE BETWEEN 10 & 50% OF AREA AFFECTED 3LARGE BETWEEN 50 & 100% OF AREA AFFECTED 4
WARNING TIMEIs there usually some lead time
associated with the hazardevent? Have warning
measures been implemented?
MORE THAN 24 HRS SELF DEFINED 1
10%12 TO 24 HRS SELF DEFINED 2
6 TO 12 HRS SELF DEFINED 3
LESS THAN 6 HRS SELF DEFINED 4
DURATIONHow long does the hazard
event usually last?
LESS THAN 6 HRS SELF DEFINED 1
10%LESS THAN 24 HRS SELF DEFINED 2
LESS THAN 1 WEEK SELF DEFINED 3
MORE THAN 1 WEEK SELF DEFINED 4
Priority Risk Index (PRI)
53 A presentation by Wood.
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
PRI Results
54 A presentation by Wood.
Hazard Probability ImpactSpatial Extent
Warning Time DurationPRI
ScoreCoastal Hazards: Erosion1 Likely Limited Moderate More than 24 hrs Less than 6 hrs 2.3Coastal Hazards: Rip Current1 Highly Likely Critical Small Less than 6 hrs Less than 24 hrs 3.1Coastal Hazards: Sea Level Rise1 Likely Critical Moderate More than 24 hrs More than 1 week 2.9Drought Possible Minor Large More than 24 hrs More than 1 week 2.2Earthquake Unlikely Minor Large Less than 6 hrs Less than 6 hrs 1.9
Extreme Heat Highly Likely Limited Large More than 24 hrs Less than 1 week 3.0
Flood Likely Critical Moderate 6 to 12 hours Less than 1 week 3.0
Hurricane & Tropical Storm Likely Catastrophic Large More than 24 hrs Less than 1 week 3.3
Severe Weather: Hail2 Highly Likely Minor Small Less than 6 hrs Less than 6 hrs 2.4
Severe Weather: Lightning2 Highly Likely Minor Negligible Less than 6 hrs Less than 6 hrs 2.2Severe Weather: Thunderstorm Winds2 Highly Likely Limited Large Less than 6 hrs Less than 6 hrs 3.1
Severe Winter Storm Highly Likely Minor Large More than 24 hrs Less than 1 week 2.7
Tornado Likely Critical Negligible Less than 6 hrs Less than 6 hrs 2.5
Wildfire Possible Limited Moderate Less than 6 hrs Less than 1 week 2.5
Hazardous Materials Incident Likely Minor Negligible Less than 6 hrs Less than 24 hrs 2.0
Radiological Emergency Unlikely Limited Small Less than 6 hrs More than 1 week 2.1
Cyber Attack Possible Minor Small Less than 6 hrs More than 1 week 2.1
Terrorism Unlikely Catastrophic Small Less than 6 hrs More than 1 week 2.7Transportation Infrastructure Failure
Possible Limited Small Less than 6 hrs More than 1 week 2.4
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
PRI Results
55 A presentation by Wood.
High Risk(> 2.4)
Hurricane & Tropical Storm
Extreme HeatFlood
Coastal Hazards
Severe Winter StormTerrorism
Severe WeatherTornadoWildfire
Moderate Risk(2.0 – 2.4)
Transportation Infrastructure FailureDrought
Radiological EmergencyCyber Attack
Hazardous Materials Incident
Low Risk(< 2.0)
Earthquake
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
Public SurveyResults
56 A presentation by Wood.
Hurricane, Flood, Severe Weather, and
Erosion are most significant to the public
Earthquake, Drought, Hazardous Materials Incident, and Wildfire are least significant
853 responses
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
• Planning Process– List of HMPC members
• Community Profile– Geography, population & demographics, asset
inventory, housing, economy• Risk Assessment
– Jurisdiction-specific maps, tables, and other data• Capability Assessment
– Self assessment results, floodplain management data• Mitigation Strategy
Annex Summary
57 A presentation by Wood.
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
• Goal 1: Reduce the risk of loss of life and personal injury from hazards.
• Goal 2: Maintain critical facilities and infrastructure and protect them from damage.
• Goal 3: Ensure that hazard mitigation practices, construction techniques, policies, and ordinances are integrated for both new development and post-disaster development to enhance resiliency and enable speedy recovery.
• Goal 4: Improve inter-jurisdictional cooperation and coordination, especially regarding the reduction of hazard impacts.
Goals
58 A presentation by Wood.
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
• Objective 1-1: Educate citizens to encourage individual responsibility to protect themselves and their families from hazards.
• Objective 1-2: Reduce the risk and impact of future hazards by mitigating risk of development in both known hazard areas and areas expected to face future hazard risk.
• Objective 2-1: Retrofit or otherwise protect critical facilities and infrastructure.
• Objective 2-2: Increase redundancy of critical systems and services.• Objective 3-1: Adopt protective development standards and establish
post-disaster redevelopment policies. • Objective 3-2: Preserve and protect natural and beneficial floodplain
functions and key natural resources. • Objective 3-3: Explore, develop, and implement new pre-disaster
opportunities that build community resilience.• Objective 4-1: Coordinate development standards across jurisdictions. • Objective 4-2: Encourage and enable inter-jurisdictional communication.
Objectives
59 A presentation by Wood.
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
• Must have two actions for every high and moderate priority hazard– All hazards actions count as
one project for each hazard– Emergency Services actions do
not count toward this requirement
• Must have at least one Structural Project
• Must have actions in 5 of the 6 FEMA mitigation categories
Mitigation Action Plan Requirements
60 A presentation by Wood.
FEMA Mitigation Categories:- Prevention- Property Protection- Natural Resource
Protection- Structural Projects- Emergency Services- Public Education &
Awareness
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
Mitigation Action Plan Requirements
Example: State Review of Wake County Mitigation Action Plan
A presentation by Wood.61
Outer Banks Regional Mitigation Plan Update Mtg. 3 July 24, 2019
• Develop New Mitigation Actions• Review Draft Plan
Submit comments on the draft HIRA by: Friday, August 9th
Submit new mitigation actions by: Friday, August 23rd
We will select final meeting dates in the coming weeks
Next Steps
62 A presentation by Wood.
Questions or Comments?
63
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