overview of fema p-58 (atc-58) damage/loss methodology …...2 p-58 is a performance prediction...
Post on 18-Jan-2021
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Overview of FEMA P-58 (ATC-58) Damage/Loss Methodology
and Plans for Enabling Commercial Software
Curt B. Haselton, PhD, PE
CSU, Chico
Jack W. Baker, PhD Stanford University
SEAOC Committee Meeting
Presentation on FEMA P-58 and SP3
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P-58 is a performance prediction methodology based on a 10-year FEMA study (enabled by much previous research). P-58 is an alternative to other experience-based or
judgment-based methods (e.g. HAZUS, ATC-13, etc.). P-58 is tailored to building-specific analysis (as opposed to
regional/portfolio analyses). P-58 provides information useful for seismic ratings. ATC is currently working on another 5-year effort to further
advance the methodology, implementation, ease of use.
The REDi Rating System (this afternoon) also uses a modified version of FEMA P-58 in their rating process.
Overview of FEMA P-58
SEAOC Committee Meeting Presentation on FEMA P-58 and SP3
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FEMA P-58 Output Results: • Losses ($) [Repair Cost Rating] • Fatalities & injuries [Safety Rating] • Repair time & red tagging [Recovery Time
Rating (some translation required)] Types of analysis results:
• Intensity-based (e.g. DBE) [Approach for ratings] • Time-based (annualized values) • Scenario-based (for a given event)
Overview of FEMA P-58
SEAOC Committee Meeting Presentation on FEMA P-58 and SP3
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Sample results (12-story RC frame):
FEMA P-58: Output Examples
SEAOC Committee Meeting Presentation on FEMA P-58 and SP3
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Dig as deep as you like…
FEMA P-58: Output Examples
SEAOC Committee Meeting Presentation on FEMA P-58 and SP3
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Hazard and Ground Motions • Soil and hazard curve • Ground motions (if needed)
FEMA P-58: Methodology
SEAOC Committee Meeting Presentation on FEMA P-58 and SP3
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SEAOC Committee Meeting Presentation on FEMA P-58 and SP3
Hazard and Ground Motions • Soil and hazard curve • Ground motions (if needed)
Structural Responses • Option #1: Response-history • Option #2: Simplified method
FEMA P-58: Methodology
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Hazard and Ground Motions • Soil and hazard curve • Ground motions (if needed)
Structural Responses • Option #1: Response-history • Option #2: Simplified method
Damage Prediction • Contents (str. and non-str.) • Fragility curves
FEMA P-58: Methodology
SEAOC Committee Meeting Presentation on FEMA P-58 and SP3
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FEMA P-58: Methodology
SEAOC Committee Meeting Presentation on FEMA P-58 and SP3
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Hazard and Ground Motions • Soil and hazard curve • Ground motions (if needed)
Structural Responses • Option #1: Response-history • Option #2: Simplified method
Damage Prediction • Contents (str. and non-str.) • Fragility curves
Loss Estimation (loss curves) and other consequences
FEMA P-58: Methodology
SEAOC Committee Meeting Presentation on FEMA P-58 and SP3
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Hazard and Ground Motions • Soil and hazard curve • Ground motions (if needed)
Structural Responses • Option #1: Response-history • Option #2: Simplified method
Damage Prediction • Contents (str. and non-str.) • Fragility curves
Loss Estimation (loss curves) and other consequences
FEMA P-58: Methodology
Monte Carlo Simulation used
(“roll dice” thousands of times).
Each “dice roll” gives a single observation of
losses (and other consequences).
Putting all of the “dice rolls” together gives solid statistical information on
performance.
SEAOC Committee Meeting Presentation on FEMA P-58 and SP3
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SEAOC Committee Meeting Presentation on FEMA P-58 and SP3
Objective process based on extensive test data and research. Quantitative performance information:
• Dig as deep as you like. • Tools to communicate with owners. • Solid statistical basis.
FEMA P-58: Benefits
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FEMA P-58: Perceived “Difficulty”
I need to hire a geotech to do this…?!?!
I need to do a response-history analysis…?!?!
I need to count and enter every foot of partition wall and other contents…?!?!
Hazard and Ground Motions • Soil and hazard curve • Ground motions (if needed)
Structural Responses • Option #1: Response-history • Option #2: Simplified method
Damage Prediction • Contents (str. and non-str.) • Fragility curves
Loss Estimation (loss curves) and other consequences
SEAOC Committee Meeting Presentation on FEMA P-58 and SP3
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It may not be as hard to implement FEMA P-58 as some currently perceive it to be.
The “What If” Question:
• What if we had a stream-lined FEMA P-58 analysis that could be done in hours rather than days (and provide all of the same benefits)?
FEMA P-58: Perceived “Difficulty”
SEAOC Committee Meeting Presentation on FEMA P-58 and SP3
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Based on my discussions with practitioners, it looks like most of the barriers to FEMA P-58 use are related to software and ease-of-use. FEMA has funded additional development, currently
working on both methodology advancements and design aids (to improve ease of use, etc.). FEMA and ATC have created a useful methodology
but are not in the business of maintaining software. For our profession to move forward with use of FEMA
P-58 methods, someone needs to step-up to provide/maintain user-friendly enabling software.
My Thinking Over Past Couple Years
SEAOC Committee Meeting Presentation on FEMA P-58 and SP3
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In February, Jack Baker and I decided to work on filling this needed role by: a) Creating user-friendly software to implement P-58. b) Maintaining software over time (fragilities, etc.). c) Improving and extending the methodology in the
future after ATC/FEMA work is done (improvements, extensions desired by SE’s, etc.).
Timing: Our timing lines up well with the USRC building rating system work, so we would like to help support this process.
My Thinking Over Past Couple Years
SEAOC Committee Meeting Presentation on FEMA P-58 and SP3
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SEAOC Committee Meeting Presentation on FEMA P-58 and SP3
Hazard and Ground Motions • Soil and hazard curve • Ground motions (if needed)
Structural Responses • Option #1: Response-history • Option #2: Simplified method
Damage Prediction • Contents (str. and non-str.) • Fragility curves
Loss Estimation (loss curves)
Software Implementation of FEMA P-58
Soil and hazard curves embedded.
Simplified method embedded (only need period, mode shape, strength, yield drift).
Structural and non-structural contents estimated and pre-
populated.
Two-level structure: (1) Simple (basic rating, prelim. design, PML) (2) Refine and go as deep as you like (full new PBD).
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Status and Timeline: • February: Started software work. • April: Secured a National Science Foundation
research commercialization grant for funding. • Current: Active development (Jack, me, team of 7). • November: Commercial Beta release.
ATC/FEMA: Being done in coordination with ATC (so all
pulling in same direction) but not funded by ATC (because needs to become a commercial tool to be sustainable).
Status and Timeline
SEAOC Committee Meeting Presentation on FEMA P-58 and SP3
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Draft SP3 Tool
SEAOC Committee Meeting Presentation on FEMA P-58 and SP3
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Our goal is to enable/support the use of newly-emerging tools like P-58 in our profession (both for ratings and for new performance-based design). We are still in active development, so please:
• Let us know how we can tailor SP3 to be most useful for our structural engineering profession.
• I would love to meet with you if you have advice!
E-mail: chaselton@csuchico.edu, curt@hbrisk.com
Cell: (530) 514-8980
Next Steps
SEAOC Committee Meeting Presentation on FEMA P-58 and SP3
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