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PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION:A WORD OF CAUTION
June, 2015
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION:
A WORD OF CAUTION
June 2015
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
ii
Acknowledgements:
Team Leader: Samir S. AmirLead Researcher: Syed Danish Hyder
Disclaimer: The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Board of Directors and Members of the Pakistan Business Council or the companies they represent. Any conclusions of analysis based on ITC, IDB, CTS, UNCTSD and WEO data are the responsibility of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the WTO, IMF or UN.
Although every effort has been made to cross-check and verify the authenticity of the data, the Pakistan Business Council does not guarantee the data included in this work. All data and statistics used are correct as of 1st June, 2015, and may be subject to change.
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
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The Pakistan Business Council: An OverviewThe Pakistan Business Council (PBC) is a business policy advocacy forum, representing private-sector businesses that have substantial investments in Pakistan’s economy. It was formed in 2005 by 14 (now 47) of Pakistan’s largest enterprises, including multinationals, to allow businesses to meaningfully interact with government and other stakeholders.
The Pakistan Business Council is a pan-industry advocacy group. It is not a trade body nor does it advocate for any specific business sector. Rather, its key advocacy thrust is on easing barriers to allow Pakistani businesses to compete in regional and global arenas.
The PBC works closely with the relevant government departments, ministries, regulators and institutions, as well as other stakeholders including professional bodies, to develop consensus on major issues which impact the conduct of business in and from Pakistan. The PBC has submitted key position papers and recommendations to the government on legislation and other government policies affecting businesses. It also serves on various taskforces and committees of the Government of Pakistan as well as those of the State Bank, SECP and other regulators with the objective to provide policy assistance on new initiatives and reforms.
The PBC conducts research and holds conferences and seminars to facilitate the flow of relevant information to all stakeholders in order to help create an informed view on the major issues faced by Pakistan.
The PBC’s Founding Objectives:
• To provide for the formation and exchange of views on any question connected with the conduct of businesses in and from Pakistan.
• To conduct, organize, set up, administer and manage campaigns, surveys, focus groups, workshops, seminars and field works for carrying out research and raising awareness in regard to matters affecting businesses in Pakistan.
• To acquire, collect, compile, analyze, publish and provide statistics, data analysis and other information relating to businesses of any kind, nature or description and on opportunities for such businesses within and outside Pakistan.
• To promote and facilitate the integration of businesses in Pakistan into the world economy and to encourage the development and growth of Pakistani multinationals.
• To interact with Governments in the economic development of Pakistan and to facilitate, foster and further the economic, social and human resource development of Pakistan.
The PBC is a Section 42 not-for-profit Company Limited by Guarantee. Its working is overseen by a Board of Directors elected every three years by the Membership with the Board being headed by a Non-Executive Chairman. The day-to-day operations of the PBC are run by a professional secretariat headed by a full-time, paid CEO.
More information on the PBC, its members, and its workings, can be found on its website: www.pbc.org.pk
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
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The PBC’s Member Companies
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
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The PBC’s Member Companies
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
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PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................. ixKEY FINDINGS .................................................................................................................. ix
FEASIBLITY OF GRANTING INDIA NDMA STATUS .................................................................x
RECOMMENDATIONS ...................................................................................................... xiii
ANALYSIS OF HIGH POTENTIAL TRADE ITEMS ................................................................... xiv
CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................ xxii
1.0 STUDY OBJECTIVES ..................................................................................................01
2.0 BACKGROUND TO STUDY ........................................................................................ 05
SECTION I: FEASIBILITY OF GRANTING NDMA TO INDIA ......................... 073.0 OVERVIEW OF NDMA ISSUE .................................................................................... 09
3.1 NON-TARIFF BARRIERS ..........................................................................................10
3.1.1 SUBSIDIES ..........................................................................................................10
3.1.2 TECHNICAL BARRIERS TO TRADE ......................................................................... 13
3.1.3 PARA-TARIFFS .................................................................................................... 16
3.1.4 VISAS ................................................................................................................ 17
3.1.5 BANKING ........................................................................................................... 18
3.1.6 NOTE ON “NON-DISCRIMINATORY” NATURE OF NTBS .......................................... 18
4.0 POTENTIAL BENEFITS OF INDIA REDUCING ITS SENSITIVE ..................................... 20
5.0 INDIA’S 2015 FOREIGN TRADE POLICY AND MEIS BRIEF OVERVIEW .........................23
5.1 MEIS ANALYSIS .....................................................................................................23
5.2 MEIS HIGH POTENTIAL PRODUCTS AT 6-DIGIT AND 8-DIGIT HS CODE LEVEL ...........27
5.2.1 BLACK TEA ........................................................................................................27
5.2.2 SOYA BEAN PRODUCTS ......................................................................................28
5.2.3 FOOD PREPARATIONS .......................................................................................29
5.2.4 TOYS.................................................................................................................30
5.2.5 CEREAL PREPARATIONS ...................................................................................... 31
5.2.6 GINGER .............................................................................................................32
5.2.8 MIXTURES OF ODORIFEROUS SUBSTANCES (RAW MATERIALS) ............................33
5.2.9 MIXTURES OF ODORIFEROUS SUBSTANCES (FOOD, DRINK) ................................34
5.2.9 MALT ................................................................................................................35
5.2.10 JUTE ................................................................................................................36
5.2.11 PEPPER ............................................................................................................. 37
5.2.12 TOMATOES ......................................................................................................38
5.2.13 TEXTILE ITEMS .................................................................................................39
6.0 RECOMMENDATIONS .............................................................................................. 40
6.1 REMOVING NTBS ................................................................................................. 40
6.2 PROTECTING LOCAL INDUSTRIES BY STRENGTHENING THE NTC ............................. 41
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
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SECTION II: ANALYSIS OF HIGH POTENTIAL PAKISTANI EXPORTS ........... 427.0 ANALYSIS OF HIGH POTENTIAL PAKISTANI EXPORTS TO INDIA .............................. 45
7.1 TOP 100 HIGH POTENTIAL PAKISTANI EXPORTS TO INDIA ....................................... 50
7.2AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS ................................................................................... 60
7.3 PLASTICS .............................................................................................................63
7.4 TEXTILE AND FOOTWEAR..................................................................................... 65
7.5 MACHINERY .........................................................................................................67
7.6 PHARMACEUTICAL PRODUCTS ............................................................................. 69
SECTION III: ANALYSIS OF HIGH POTENTIAL INDIAN EXPORTS ................718.0 ANALYSIS OF HIGH POTENTIAL INDIAN EXPORTS TO PAKISTAN ..............................73
9.1 TOP 100 HIGH POTENTIAL PAKISTANI EXPORTS TO INDIA ........................................78
9.2 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS .................................................................................. 86
9.3 MACHINERY ........................................................................................................ 88
9.4 VEHICLES OTHER THAN RAILWAY, TRAMWAY ........................................................ 90
9.5 AUTO SECTOR ......................................................................................................92
9.6 IRON AND STEEL ................................................................................................. 95
9.7 ORGANIC CHEMICALS ..........................................................................................97
SECTION IV: CONCLUSION .......................................................................9910.0 CONCLUSION ....................................................................................................... 101
SECTION V: SECTORIAL PERSPECTIVES ON TRADE NORMALIZATION ...........................103
NOTE FROM GATRON (INDUSTRIES) LIMITED ..................................................................104
ANNEXURES .................................................................................................................106
Annexure A: List of high potential Pakistani exports to India (438 items) ........................108
Annexure B: List of high potential Indian exports to Pakistan (335 items) .........................131
Bibliography ................................................................................................................. 148
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
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Executive Summary
KEY FINDINGS
Talk of India receiving Most Favoured Nation (MFN)1 status or Non-Discriminatory Market Access (NDMA)2 from Pakistan has dominated the discourse on Pakistan-India trade for several years. While India granted Pakistan MFN status in 1996, and both countries have been subject to SAFTA since 2006, Pakistan is yet to grant India MFN/NDMA status after a series of false starts and delays. Many believe that this decisive move towards a normalized trading regime will help realize the massive potential for trade between the two countries that so far lies largely dormant.
Source: ITC Trademap
Pakistan’s primary exports to India include cotton, cement and copper waste. Pakistan’s exports to India grew from USD 158 million in 2004 to USD 392 million in 2014, but it could only claim 0.09% of total Indian imports from the world in 2014. India’s major exports to Pakistan include tomatoes, polypropylene and soya bean products. India’s exports to Pakistan grew much more significantly over the period under consideration, from USD 454 million to USD 2.1 billion, but it too could only claim 0.63% of total Pakistani imports from the world in 2014.
This study aims to assess the potential for trade between the two countries by analysing products at the 6-digit HS code level using a number of different metrics. It also includes an in-depth discussion of several issues that must be addressed before NDMA status can be granted to India.
158
337 327 292 355235 275 273
348 403 392454577
1,1151,266
1,691
1,080
1,560 1,607 1,573
1,874
2,105
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
USD
Mill
ions
Pakistan's Trade with India
Pakistan's Exports to India Pakistan's Imports from India
1“Most Favoured Nation” (MFN) status is a level of treatment accorded by one state to another in international trade. The term means that the country which is granted this status must receive equal trade advantages as the “most favoured nation” by the country granting such treatment. In other words, a country that has been accorded NDMA status may not be treated less advantageously than any other country with MFN status by the promising country.2Non-DIscriminatory Market Access (NDMA) is another name for Most Favoured Nation status used in recent years by both sides.
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3Pakistan’s negative list for India consists of 1209 items.4Pakistan’s 2014-2015 Federal budget in brief. Retrieved from http://finance.gov.pk/. The following subsidies add up to the total subsidy cited: all subsidies to USC, all subsidies to PASSCO, subsidies for sale of wheat in FATA, sale of wheat in Gilgit Baltistan, sale of salt in Gilgit Baltistan. 5Rs 15b farming subsidy still unconsumed (2015 April 28). The Nation. Retrieved from http://nation.com.pk/.
FEASIBILITY OF GRANTING INDIA NDMA STATUS
Proponents of Pakistan granting India NDMA status maintain that both countries stand to gain increased access to one another’s vibrant markets after years of restrictive policies and trade levels incommensurate with existing potential. Pakistan’s delay in granting India NDMA status has frequently been cited as the only major obstacle to realizing trade potential that would result in a corresponding increase in consumer welfare on both sides of the border.
However, concerns have been raised, especially in Pakistan,regarding the move to grant India NDMA status without challenging the ultimate benefits of a normalized Pakistan-India trade regime. Any consideration of the said benefits must take into account both short-term costs and the time-frame for the long-term benefits to materialize. The current situation vis-à-vis Pakistan-India trade normalization suggests serious short term issues for Pakistani businesses as they try to compete with the influx of cheap and subsidized Indian goods and a comparatively longer time horizon before the expected advantages of open trade relations are seen. This follows from the fact that the abolishment of Pakistan’s negative list3 would grant Indian products unprecedented access to the Pakistani market through the abolishment of the Negative List and land access for Indian exports through the Wagah border. These exports can pose a serious threat to local industry since Indian agriculture and manufactured products are buoyed by heavy government subsidies and economies of scale. Pakistani exports, on the other hand, will face India’s notoriously effective non-tariff barriers, and will likely not receive comparable support from the Pakistani government.
Indian subsidies to domestic industries
India heavily subsidizes several of its domestic sectors. Its 2015 budget earmarked USD 37 billion for major subsidies. In its budget for fiscal year 2014-2015 India allocated USD 18.4 billion (0.95% of GDP) for direct food subsidies. Pakistan’s total food subsidies in its 2014-2015 federal budget amounted to USD 161 million (0.06% of GDP) when added up.4
Pakistan allocated USD 147 million for subsidies to farms in the same year, none of which was disbursed since agriculture became a subject of the provinces and a mechanism to spend the subsidy could not be devised.5 India has drawn the ire of the WTO as a result of its continued subsidies for its textile exports, whereas Pakistan’s subsidies to its textile industry have been deemed grossly insufficient by the chairman of the APTMA (All Pakistan Textile Mills Association).
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India’s Elaborate Non-Tariff Barriers
Pakistan faces several serious non-tariff barriers (NTB) in exporting to India.
Primary Technical Barriers to Trade
1India’s standards regime, which is unique to India and in certain cases does not recognize standards developed and enforced in developed countries.
2India’s complicated and stringent requirements for labelling and packaging, quarantine, certification etc. for many high potential Pakistani export products.
3
India’s complex state-specific requirements which do not allow foreign companies to treat India as ‘one market’. Additionally information on state requirements appears to have deliberately been kept vague in order to discourage foreign companies and to protect domestic commerce from global/regional competitors.
Pakistan’s standard setting body, the Pakistan Standards & Quality Control Authority (PSQCA), lacks the facilities to set and implement standards for Pakistani products. Moreover, PSQCA’s limited certifications are not accepted internationally and this is a serious obstacle to exports since India imposes its standards rigorously. In addition to the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) there are a number of organizations in India which deal with standards and certifications for different products. In 2012 Pakistan and India signed a Mutual Recognition Agreement (MRA) which will, after a yet undetermined time frame, allow the PSQCA’s certifications to be accepted in India. However it should be kept in mind that the BIS/PSQCA will only cover a limited number of products. Currently Pakistani businesses trading with India report long waiting periods for certification, complex rules and regulations and exacting authorities. Furthermore, there is little effort by the Pakistani government to support exporters doing business with India.
Pakistan’s National Tariff Commission (NTC) is responsible for carrying out investigations to establish the need for countervailing and anti-dumping duties, but the NTC currently lacks the institutional capacity to properly fulfil its responsibilities in this regard. There are also issues with the NTC legislation which seriously impede the organization’s ability to perform its designated tasks. These are discussed in the first part of this study.
India imposes high para-tariffs on imports, with para-tariffs reaching up to 23% on imported goods, compared to a 12% duty on local producers. On the other hand Pakistani General Sales Tax (GST), which is 17%, is exempt for imports of food, raw materials and capital goods, and therefore while some Pakistani products have a 5% advantage over imports (given a basic customs duty of 5%) others may have none. On the other hand, local producers in India have an advantage over exporters by a margin of at least 10%.
The mutually agreed and implemented visa regime remains relatively illiberal despite some notable improvement in its terms. Multiple entry visas are now available but individuals must have a minimum annual income to qualify. Police reporting on arrival and departure is still required. A business visa holder from Pakistan cannot remain in India for more than 30 continuous days on any one visit and still faces a limit on the number of cities he or she can visit. These are not features of India’s visa policies for other countries such as China and Sri Lanka. The shortcomings of the visa regime on both sides seriously hamper interaction between the two countries’ business communities.
Despite an agreement to issue banking licenses to two banks from each country to set up operations in the other, no substantive progress has been made on issues to do with banking. Currently, letters of credit issued by a bank in one country are often rejected by banks in the other. This results in payment-based delays, defaults and poor default resolution. The delays become more problematic when trade in perishable commodities is involved. In most cases the product crosses the border within a few hours’ time while normal payment channels may require
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
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days for the transaction to be completed. Problems such as these have a disproportionately negative effect on the more resource-poor country in the trade relationship.
Trade dispute resolution is another major issue for businesses dealings with India. The need to have in place a trade dispute resolution mechanism has been frequently cited by Pakistani businessmen as a major concern regarding trade with India.
Purported benefits of India reducing its SAFTA sensitive list for Pakistan
One of the more rigorous arguments for Pakistan granting India NDMA status cites India’s promise to immediately reduce its Sensitive List for Pakistan to 100 items. The Indian side has repeatedly hinted that most of the items to be removed from the Sensitive List comprise of products within which Pakistan enjoys export competitiveness, though the specific items to be removed are yet to be identified by India. A closer look at the actual benefit of such a concession reveals that this reduction may not necessarily translate into increased exports from Pakistan
India has signed free trade agreements (FTAs) with SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation), countries Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bhutan, meaning they are already receiving deep to full concessions on most items exported to India. Moreover, under SAFTA, (South Asian Free Trade Area) Bangladesh faces the Least Developed Countries sensitive list which consists of a mere 25 items as compared to the Non-Least Developed countries sensitive list faced by Pakistan, which runs to 614 items. This study takes a closer look at the terms Pakistan faces in comparison to other countries in the region to conclude that a reduction in India’s sensitive list (the items to be removed have not been specified by India) will not substantially improve Pakistan’s access to the Indian market as Pakistan’s competitors in the region already receive and will continue to enjoy more favourable tariff concessions through their bilateral trade agreements with India, while Pakistan faces higher SAFTA rates. This is an important issue, since unless India offers Pakistan terms similar to those offered to Pakistan’s regional competitors the actual impact of a reduction in the Sensitive List may bring little substantial gain for Pakistan.
Merchandise Exports from India Scheme (MEIS)
The Merchandise Exports from India Scheme (MEIS) is a new export subsidy policy introduced in India’s 2015 foreign trade policy. The objective of MEIS is to offset costs resulting from infrastructural inefficiencies involved in the export of Indian goods, with particular emphasis paid to those commodities which have high export intensity and employment potential.
MEIS consolidates five different schemes from the former trade policy which each had different kinds of duty scrips with varying conditions. Duty free scrips are essentially rebates offered on the purchase of inputs for manufactured products. They are paper authorisations that allow the holder to domestically procure or import inputs or machinery required for manufacturing products that are exported without paying duties/taxes equivalent to the scrip value.
MEIS applies to 1005 items at the 8-digit HS code level where Indian exports to Pakistan are concerned. At the less specific 6-digit level this collapses into a total of 485 items. The total trade potential at the 6-digit level for Indian exports to Pakistan for these 485 items comes out to USD 1.4 billion. USD 1.1 billion of this trade potential resides within 50 items at the 6-digit level. This report provides an analysis of the 485 relevant items to which MEIS applies in an attempt to flesh out the importance of this scheme to Pakistan-India trade. It is therefore clear that the Indian subsidy regime has been further enhanced with a focus on exports and the government of Pakistan must take cognizance of this scheme.
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RECOMMENDATIONS
Protecting local industries and strengthening the NTC
Pakistan must develop institutional apparatus to offer effective protection to those local industries that will need it in the aftermath of NDMA. This is absolutely necessary to avoid a rocky transition and the decimation of local industries as cheap Indian goods suddenly flood the market. Countervailing and anti-dumping duties along with other safeguard measures are the purview of the National Tariff commission. This study raises several concerns about the institutional capacity of the NTC. The most pressing of these (including the afore-mentioned legislation that weakens the position of local industries requesting safeguarding investigations) must be decisively resolved before NDMA is granted. The government does not have the fiscal space to provide subsidies to domestic agriculture and industry, and subsidies would also be in violation of WTO rules in many cases. It is therefore essential that domestic industry, NTC and the government of Pakistan identify the threat of Indian subsidies and rebates and implement an effective counter strategy.
Removing India’s NTBs
Both sides must work to remove non-tariff barriers that impede the other’s exports. While it is true that many of India’s NTBs apply indiscriminately to its trading partners, some of these are specific to items within which Pakistan possesses greater export competitiveness i.e. textiles and agriculture. Moreover, issues having to do with the visa regime and banking are also specific to Pakistan-India trade.
Given the unique nature of the two countries’ relationship, India, in its capacity as the partnership’s stronger economy, needs to take the initiative to ease its NTBs, especially those which specifically impede Pakistan’s high export potential products. This is necessary for the granting of NDMA to be a win-win situation for both countries.
Custom procedures and technical barriers to trade are high priority issues: custom procedures need to be made more efficient and transparent, whereas Pakistan must offer greater assistance to its exporters in negotiating India’s complex standards requirements. India must also work to improve the efficiency of its licensing and certification processes to reduce delays. While some progress has been made on this issue, India needs to do more to assist Pakistan in developing internationally accredited testing facilities which would go a very long way to enabling hassle-free trade between the two countries.
Issues arising from banking appear to be easily remediable: decisive action needs to be taken to set up Indian banks in Pakistan and vice versa. Banking instruments that can keep pace with fast trade transaction times must be developed.
The visa regimes of both countries must be made more liberal since trade cannot show appreciable growth without sustained and uninterrupted interaction between the business communities of the two countries. Both countries need to find an alternative for police reporting and city-specific visas. Furthermore, India needs to make its visa regime for Pakistani businessmen consistent with its other visa regimes.
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ANALYSIS OF HIGH POTENTIAL TRADE ITEMS
Pakistani Exports to India
438 high potential Pakistani export items accounted for trade potential with India worth USD 3.4 billion in 2014. This represented 90% of the total trade potential within the 5541 items with available data for that year. Around 47% of these 438 items have experienced healthy growth in Pakistani world exports and Indian world imports without corresponding growth in Pakistani exports to India during the period 2004-2014. About 12% of these high potential products are already exported by Pakistan to India at a disproportionately high rate compared to the items’ share in Pakistan’s international export basket.
The following table offers an overview of the major export potential areas for Pakistan based on the analysed high export potential items. High potential CAGR items are highlighted in red.
Sector Current ExportsTotal Trade Potential
Major Items Metrics
Textile and Footwear
USD 57 million in 146 items
USD 852 million in 146 items, items below account for USD 390 million of trade potential
HS 6109 (T-shirts, singlets, knitted or crocheted), HS 6203 (Men’s suits, jackets, trousers), HS 6403 (Footwear, upper of leather)
35% high CAGR items, 10% items with bilateral RCA>1, 49% items on India’s sensitive list
HS Code Product labelPak 2014 Exports
to IndiaIndia 2014 World
Imports
Pak 2014 World
Exports
Pak 2014 Trade
Potential
520100Cotton, not carded or combed
36.81 504.12 180.94 144.13
620342Mens/boys trousers and shorts, of cotton, not knitted
0.28 62.07 664.53 61.79
640399Footwear, outer soles of rubber/plastics uppers of leather, nes
0.01 32.15 77.54 32.14
630419Bedspreads of textile materials, nes, not knitted or crocheted
0.00 77.23 28.62 28.62
610910T-shirts, singlets and other vests, of cotton, knitted
0.01 24.94 195.41 24.93
630790Made up articles, of textile materials, nes, including dress patterns
0.00 22.81 36.82 22.81
630140Blankets (o/t electric) and travelling rugs, of synthetic fibres
0.00 48.92 22.25 22.25
551219
Woven fabrics,containg>/=85% of polyester staple fibres,o/t unbl or bl
0.00 18.75 27.43 18.75
610990T-shirts,singlets and other vests,of other textile materials,knitted
0.00 18.12 76.09 18.12
611599Hosiery nes, of other textile materials, knitted
0.00 17.90 57.59 17.90
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
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Sector Current ExportsTotal Trade Potential
Major Items Metrics
Agricultural Products
USD 81 million in 53 items
USD 360 million in 53 items, items below account for USD 237 million
HS 120740 (sesamum seeds), HS 080410 (dates)
49% high CAGR items, 15% items with bilateral RCA>1, 32% items on India’s sensitive list
HS Code Product labelPak 2014 Exports
to IndiaIndia 2014 World
Imports
Pak 2014 World
Exports
Pak 2014 Trade
Potential
220720Ethyl alcohol and other spirits, denatured, of any strength
0.66 86.33 102.94 85.67
120740Sesamum seeds, whether or not broken
12.36 106.17 65.40 53.04
30289Fresh or chilled fish, n.e.s.
0.00 16.46 19.98 16.46
80410 Dates, fresh or dried 63.64 199.45 79.98 16.33
170490
Sugar confectionery nes (includg white chocolate),not containg cocoa
0.21 15.27 48.61 15.06
121190
Plants &pts of plants(incl sed&fruit) usd in pharm,perf,insect etc nes
1.84 68.50 14.00 12.16
190219Uncooked pasta, not stuffed or otherwise prepared, nes
0.05 10.74 11.34 10.70
30499
Frozen fish meat whether or not minced (excl. swordfish, toothfish and
0.00 11.32 10.42 10.42
151620Veg fats &oils&fractions hydrogenatd,inter/re-esterifid,etc,ref'd/not
0.00 9.54 115.27 9.54
190590
Communion wafers,empty cachets f pharm use&sim prod&bakers' wares nes
0.01 7.67 19.58 7.66
Sector Current ExportsTotal Trade Potential
Major Items Metrics
PlasticsUSD 14 million in 25 items
USD 170 million in 25 items, items below account for USD 140 million of trade potential
HS 3915 (Waste and scrap of plastics) , HS 3920 (Other plates, sheets, films etc. of plastic), HS 3924 (Tableware, kitchenware, toiletry articles of plastic)
29% high CAGR items, 21% items with bilateral RCA>1, 75% items on India’s sensitive list
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
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HS Code Product labelPak 2014 Exports
to IndiaIndia 2014 World
Imports
Pak 2014 World
Exports
Pak 2014 Trade
Potential
390319 Polystyrene nes 0.19 34.83 52.25 34.63
391590Plastics waste and scrap nes
0.31 103.70 23.14 22.83
392062
Film and sheet etc, non-cellular etc, of polyethylene terephthalates
0.17 49.41 17.37 17.20
392490Household and toilet articles nes, of plastics
0.01 21.02 12.22 12.21
392020Film and sheet etc, non-cellular etc, of polymers of propylene
0.00 71.32 11.03 11.03
391890Floor, wall and ceiling coverings etc, of plastics nes
0.00 14.01 10.94 10.94
392690Articles of plastics or of other materials of Nos 39.01 to 39.14 nes
0.00 677.04 10.22 10.22
392321Sacks and bags (including cones) of polymers of ethylene
0.00 11.65 7.62 7.62
390799Polyesters nes, in primary forms
0.00 178.76 6.46 6.46
390410Polyvinyl chloride, not mixed with any other substances
12.37 174.94 18.27 5.90
Sector Current ExportsTotal Trade Potential
Major Items Metrics
MachineryUSD 0.25 million in 31 items
USD 207 million in 31 items, items below account for USD 163 million of trade potential
HS 8411 (Turbo-jets, turbo propellers and other gas turbines), HS 8414 (air, vacuum pump)
77% high CAGR items, 10% items with bilateral RCA>1, 6% items on India’s sensitive list
HS Code Product labelPak 2014 Exports
to IndiaIndia 2014 World
Imports
Pak 2014 World
Exports
Pak 2014 Trade
Potential
841451Fans: table,roof etc w a self-cont elec mtr of an output nt excdg 125W
0.00 71.54 38.56 38.56
841182Gas turbines nes of a power exceeding 5000 KW
0.00 84.45 23.19 23.19
840710Aircraft engines, spark-ignition reciprocating or rotary type
0.00 149.24 17.68 17.68
841510
Air conditioning machines window or wall types, self-contained
0.00 401.94 16.37 16.37
841199 Parts of gas turbines nes 0.00 199.59 14.46 14.46
841810Combined refrigerator-freezers, fitted with separate external doors
0.00 103.94 12.45 12.45
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
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841490Parts of vacuum pumps, compressors, fans, blowers, hoods
0.00 405.88 12.27 12.27
843143Parts of boring or sinking machinery, whether or not self-propelled
0.00 351.42 11.77 11.77
847330Parts&accessories of automatic data processg machines&units thereof
0.00 1,429.22 10.01 10.01
841829Refrigerators, household type, nes
0.00 7.78 5.81 5.81
Sector Current ExportsTotal Trade Potential
Major Items Metrics
Pharmaceutical Products
USD 0.15 million in 10 items
USD 170 million in 10 items, items below account for total trade potential
HS 3003 (Medicament mixtures), HS 3004 (Medicament Mixtures)
70% high CAGR items, no items with bilateral RCA>1, 30% items on India’s sensitive list
HS Code Product labelPak 2014 Exports
to IndiaIndia 2014 World
Imports
Pak 2014 World
Exports
Pak 2014 Trade
Potential
300490Medicaments nes, in dosage
0.03 566.25 86.57 86.54
300439Hormones nes, not containing antibiotics, in dosage,o/t contraceptive
0.00 73.05 21.58 21.58
300420Antibiotics nes, in dosage
0.00 24.70 12.87 12.87
300590
Dressings&similar articles,impreg or coatd or packagd for md use,nes
0.00 15.51 12.07 12.07
300390Medicaments nes, formulated, in bulk
0.12 39.47 12.09 11.97
300410Penicillins or streptomycins and their derivatives, in dosage
0.00 19.32 10.90 10.90
300339
Hormones nes,formulatd,not cntg antibiotics,in bulk,o/t contraceptives
0.00 5.98 28.56 5.98
300450Vitamins and their derivatives,in dosage
0.00 5.28 4.76 4.76
300510Dressings and other articles having an adhesive layer
0.00 10.82 1.86 1.86
300310
Penicillins or streptomycins and their derivatives,formulated,in bulk
0.00 1.64 5.94 1.64
Indian Exports to Pakistan
335 high potential Indian export items accounted for trade potential with Pakistan worth USD 21.9 billion in 2014, which represented 81% of the total trade potential within the 4435 items with available data for that year. 53% of these 335 items exhibited significant growth in Indian world exports and Pakistani world imports without corresponding growth in Indian exports to
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
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Pakistan during the period 2004-2014. About 32% of these high potential products are already being exported by India to Pakistan at a disproportionately high rate compared to the items’ weight in India’s international export basket.
The following table offers an overview of major export potential areas for India based on the analysed high export potential items. High potential CAGR items are highlighted in red.
SectorCurrent Indian Exports
to PakistanTrade Potential Major Items Metrics
Agricultural Products
USD 400 million in 23 items
USD 1.2 billion in 23 items, items below account for USD 1 billion of trade potential
HS 090240 (Black tea), HS 230400 (Soya bean oil cake)
22% high CAGR items,69% items with bilateral RCA>1, 30% items on Pakistan’s sensitive list, none on negative list
HS Code Product labelIndia 2014
Exports to PakPak 2014 World
Imports
India 2014 World
Exports
India 2014 Trade
Potential
90240Black tea (fermented) & partly fermented tea in packages exceedg 3 kg
22.61 319.19 577.85 296.59
230400Soya-bean oil-cake&oth solid residues,whether or not ground or pellet
186.86 478.91 1,180.72 292.05
100119Durum wheat (excl. seed for sowing)
0.00 185.08 81.14 81.14
40210Milk powder not exceeding 1.5% fat
30.56 108.63 217.06 78.07
210690 Food preparations nes 0.82 71.00 168.44 70.19
80610 Grapes, fresh 0.00 50.05 223.73 50.05
230990Animal feed preparations nes
1.57 50.21 165.15 48.64
190110Prep of cereals,flour,starch/milk f infant use,put up f retail sale
0.38 67.80 34.32 33.94
100610Rice in the husk (paddy or rough)
0.16 29.76 62.30 29.60
91011Ginger : Neither crushed nor ground
10.96 48.06 40.06 29.10
SectorCurrent Indian Exports
to PakistanTrade Potential Major Items Metrics
MachineryUSD 26 million in 68 items
USD 1.9 billion in 68 items, items below account for USD 676 million of trade potential
HS 8421 (Centrifuges, incl. centrifugal dryers), HS 8422 (Dish-washing machines), HS 8431 (Machinery part)
35% high CAGR items, 25% items with bilateral RCA>1, 16% items on Pakistan’s negative list
HS Code Product labelIndia 2014
Exports to PakPak 2014 World
Imports
India 2014 World
Exports
India 2014 Trade
Potential
841989
Machinery,plant/laboratory equip f treat of mat by change of temp nes
0.58 101.28 145.95 100.70
840999Parts for diesel and semi-diesel engines
0.01 80.49 584.91 80.49
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
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841480Air or gas compressors, hoods
0.24 79.20 327.18 78.96
848180Taps, cocks, valves and similar appliances, nes
0.17 68.88 717.67 68.71
842230Mach f fil/clos/seal/etc.btle/can/box/ bag/ctnr nes,mach f aeratg bev
1.25 63.44 96.50 62.19
843143Parts of boring or sinking machinery, whether or not self-propelled
0.24 60.89 170.40 60.65
841199 Parts of gas turbines nes 0.00 102.69 57.75 57.75
841590Parts of air conditioning machines
0.00 57.37 71.88 57.37
840991Parts for spark-ignition type engines nes
0.00 56.97 283.34 56.97
847989Machines & mechanical appliances nes having individual functions
1.75 54.19 344.14 52.45
SectorCurrent Indian Exports
to PakistanTrade Potential Major Items Metrics
Vehicles other than railway, tramway
USD 0.09 million in 16 items
USD 1.1 billion in 16 items, items below account for USD 1 billion of trade potential
HS 8703 (Cars), HS 8704 (Trucks)
88% high CAGR items, no items with bilateral RCA>1, 94% items on Pakistan’s negative list
HS Code Product labelIndia 2014
Exports to PakPak 2014 World
Imports
India 2014 World
Exports
India 2014 Trade
Potential
870321
Automobiles w reciprocatg piston engine displacg not more than 1000 cc
0.00 283.22 1,199.77 283.22
870322
Automobiles w reciprocatg piston engine displacg > 1000 cc to 1500 cc
0.01 212.44 3,236.80 212.43
870323
Automobiles w reciprocatg piston engine displacg > 1500 cc to 3000 cc
0.00 162.00 835.52 162.00
871120
Motorcycles with reciprocatg piston engine displacg > 50 cc to 250 cc
0.00 73.83 1,753.42 73.83
870421Diesel powered trucks with a GVW not exceeding five tonnes
0.00 63.43 271.14 63.43
871410Parts and accessories of motorcycles, incl. mopeds, n.e.s.
0.00 56.02 116.19 56.02
870829Parts and accessories of bodies nes for motor vehicles
0.00 49.87 61.36 49.87
870899 Motor vehicle parts nes 0.08 45.43 2,696.06 45.35
870210Diesel powered buses with a seating capacity of > nine persons
0.00 39.36 259.52 39.36
870422Diesel powerd trucks w a GVW exc five tonnes but not exc twenty tonnes
0.00 36.43 218.70 36.43
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
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SectorCurrent Indian Exports
to PakistanTrade Potential Major Items Metrics
Auto SectorUSD 31 million in 20 items
USD 756 million in 20 items, items below account for USD 600 million of trade potential
HS 4011 (New pneumatic tires of rubber), HS 8409 (Parts for use solely with motor engines)
65% high CAGR items, 20% items with bilateral RCA>1, 60% items on Pakistan’s negative list
HS Code Product labelIndia 2014
Exports to PakPak 2014 World
Imports
India 2014 World
Exports
India 2014 Trade
Potential
401120Pneumatic tires new of rubber for buses or lorries
26.86 190.18 575.42 163.32
840999Parts for diesel and semi-diesel engines
0.01 80.49 584.91 80.49
841590Parts of air conditioning machines
0.00 57.37 71.88 57.37
840991Parts for spark-ignition type engines nes
0.00 56.97 283.34 56.97
848310Transmission shafts and cranks, including cam shafts and crank shafts
0.00 50.17 255.69 50.17
870829Parts and accessories of bodies nes for motor vehicles
0.00 49.87 61.36 49.87
870899 Motor vehicle parts nes 0.08 45.43 2,696.06 45.35
848210 Bearings, ball 0.14 38.45 58.38 38.31
841430Compressors of a kind used in refrigerating equipment
0.33 132.24 32.89 32.57
842139Filtering or purifying machinery and apparatus for gases nes
0.13 26.36 104.58 26.23
SectorCurrent Indian Exports
to PakistanTrade Potential Major Items Metrics
Iron and SteelUSD 0.09 million in 32 items
USD 1.2 billion in 32 items, items below account for USD 768 million of trade potential
HS 7208 (Flat-rolled products of iron, not clad), HS 7210 (Flat-rolled products of iron, plated or coated)
75% high CAGR items, no items with bilateral RCA>1, 50% items on Pakistan’s negative list
HS Code Product labelIndia 2014
Exports to PakPak 2014 World
Imports
India 2014 World
Exports
India 2014 Trade
Potential
721049
Flat rolled prod,i/nas,plated or coated with zinc,>/=600mm wide, nes
0.00 170.20 993.27 170.20
720839Hot roll iron/steel nes, coil >600mm x <3mm
0.00 153.83 303.68 153.83
720838Hot roll iron/steel nes, coil >600mm x 3-4.75mm
0.00 85.21 124.31 85.21
730423Drill pipe, seamless, of a kind used in drilling for oil or gas, of ir
0.00 67.77 76.42 67.77
721990Flat rolled prod, stainless steel, 600mm or more wide, nes
0.00 58.66 89.47 58.66
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
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730429Casings,,tubing, drill pipe, for oil drilling use
0.00 58.04 58.22 58.04
720916Cold rolled iron/steel, coils >600mm x 1-3mm
0.00 50.96 53.58 50.96
722530Flat rolled prod,as,o/t stainless,in coils,nfw thn hr,w>/=600mm,nes
0.00 171.02 45.98 45.98
730890Structures&parts of structures,i/s (ex prefab bldgs of headg no.9406)
0.01 42.52 418.03 42.51
721012
Flat rolld prod,i/nas,platd or coatd with tin,>/=600mm wide,<0.5mm thk
0.00 35.19 57.70 35.19
SectorCurrent Indian Exports
to PakistanTrade Potential Major Items Metrics
Organic
ChemicalsUSD 152 million in 24 items
USD 785 million in 24 items, items below account for USD 586 million of trade potential
HS 2902 (Cyclic Hyrdrocarbons), HS 2941 (Antibiotics)
21% high CAGR items, 67% items with bilateral RCA>1, 25% items on Pakistan’s negative list
HS Code Product labelIndia 2014
Exports to PakPak 2014 World
Imports
India 2014 World
Exports
India 2014 Trade
Potential
290243 P-xylene 113.66 349.34 1,027.79 235.68
290531Ethylene glycol (ethanediol)
0.05 202.91 87.23 87.18
294190 Antibiotics nes, in bulk 8.15 65.55 581.84 57.40
293499Nucleic acids and their salts, whether or not chemically defined; hete
3.18 53.66 382.03 50.48
292690Nitrile-function compounds, nes
0.02 34.69 41.76 34.67
292249Amino-acids nes, and their esters; salts thereof
0.59 29.45 68.83 28.86
293339Heterocyclic compds cntg an unfused pyridine ring in the structure,nes
5.80 30.32 323.88 24.52
292910 Isocyanates 0.16 34.63 24.30 24.14
293359Hetercycl compds cntg pyrimidin rng/piperazine rng,nes;nucleic acid&sa
1.15 22.83 179.90 21.69
290511Methanol (methyl alcohol)
0.01 49.80 21.67 21.66
Both sides show considerable trade potential with the other relative to the sizes of their economies. India and Pakistan both place around 30% of the analysed high potential products on their sensitive and negative lists respectively. However, India offers deeper protection to items within Pakistan’s major export potential sectors than does Pakistan to items within India’s major export potential sectors.
This analysis suggests that Pakistan-India trade has been conspicuously lacklustre within a large number of items that have experienced positive trends within trade with the rest of the world. Moreover, some of the high potential items currently claim larger shares of the export basket to the other country than they do in the exporting country’s export basket to the world, suggesting that these items will find especially lucrative markets in the importing country as trade is normalized.
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CONCLUSION While there is no doubt considerable trade potential that currently lies dormant between Pakistan and India, granting India NDMA without resolving the issues detailed in this study will result in a one-sided realization of this potential, squarely in India’s favour. • India, in addition to possessing very high export potential to Pakistan, offers substantive
support to its producers in the form of subsidies and export support schemes and maintains intractable Non-Tariff Barriers to discourage imports.
• Pakistan possesses considerable export potential to India, but it offers little support or protection to its producers and exporters, and has relatively low Non-Tariff barriers.
• Therefore,hugequantitiesofIndianproductsthatarecheaperthanlocalPakistaniproducts can easily enter Pakistan post-NDMA.On the other hand, low quantitiesof Pakistani products that will in many cases be less competitive than local Indian productswillenterIndiawithdifficultlypost-NDMA.
If NDMA is to lead to a mutually beneficial trade relationship, the following issues must be decisively addressed: • India must agree to gradually ease its Non-Tariff Barriers.
• Pakistan must build capacity to support its exports and protect local industry from subsidized imports.
• The details and time-frame of India’s promised concessions to Pakistan must be determined and considered before the granting of NDMA.
• India’s concessions to Pakistan must be consistent with its concessions to other SAFTA countries such as Bangladesh and Sri Lanka to ensure Pakistan gains fair access to the Indian market post-NDMA.
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1.0 STUDY OBJECTIVES
This study is divided into two major sections: the first discusses the feasibility of Pakistan granting India NDMA status and includes an overview of Indian non-tariff barriers as well as the SAFTA agreement, while the second estimates the potential for bilateral trade between Pakistan and India.
The second section primarily identifiesa) items possessing high potential for export from Pakistan to Indiab) items possessing high potential for export from India to Pakistan
Sources of Data
The trade data for this study has been drawn from ITC Trademap for the period ended 20146, which bases its data on UN Comtrade, maintained by the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD). Any quarterly and monthly data is drawn by Trademap from national and regional sources.
Indian tariffs and para-tariffs have been calculated using WTO’s Tariff Download Facility, the Indian customs portal, and notifications issued by the Indian government available on the Indian Central Board of Excise and Customs website. Pakistani tariffs have been calculated using WTO’s Tariff Download Facility as well as Pakistan’s custom portal. SAFTA tariffs are checked against Indian notifications available on the Indian Central Board of Excise and Customs website. Tariff data provided is for the period ended 2013. Data for India’s top import destinations was drawn from the Indian Department of Commerce website’s export import data bank.
Methodology
This study uses three different measures to provide a simple but substantive picture of export and import items individually as well as in aggregate form: trade potential, CAGR values, and bilateral RCA.
Trade Potential
Intuitively,tradepotentialisthetheoreticalextenttowhichtradeofagivenitemcanbeexpanded,whichsuggeststheactualscopeforgrowthintradeofthatitem. It is given by the following equation:
Trade Potential=
(India’s imports from the world of X – Pakistan’s current exports to India of X) if {(Pakistan’s exports to the world of X) – (India’s imports from the world of X)} > 0
And
(Pakistan’s exports to the world of X – Pakistan’s current exports to India of X) if {(India’s imports from the world of X) – (Pakistan’s exports to the world of X)} < 0
For instance, if Pakistan exports USD 500 million worth of cement to the world, and India imports USD 300 million worth of cement from the world, and Pakistan exports USD 40 million
62014 was the last year for which complete data was available.
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
02
worth of cement to India, then trade potential is USD 260 million, since Pakistan has the capacity to export USD 260 million worth of cement to India given India’s import requirements.
Trade potential is a useful way to limit an analysis of trade items to those that already have established production capacity in the exporting country and healthy demand in the importing country. It should be kept in mind that this measure therefore does not strictly tell us about items whose production capacity in the exporting country could be developed for exports, and whose demand in the importing country could emerge.
CAGR
Intuitively,theCompoundAnnualGrowthRateistherateatwhichavaluewouldhavegrown over a certain period if it had grown smoothly. CAGR is the geometric mean of the individual annual growth rates during a period. It therefore gives you the growth rate that would have gotten your initial value to your final value had the value grown smoothly over the relevant period. It is given by:
If the CAGR for Pakistan’s world exports of a good is high, and the CAGR for India’s world imports of that good is high, but the CAGR for export of that good from Pakistan to India is low or negative, the item has been highlighted, since the removal of an obstruction that is potentially specific to Pakistan-India relations can jump-start trade of the good between the two countries. This kind of product will be said to have high potential CAGR values.
High potential CAGR products are highlighted in red in this study.
CAGR values provide an idea of a trade item’s profile over a period of time, and are suggestive with regards to expectations about future growth in exports and imports. An attempt has been made in the calculation of CAGR values to adhere to rules that result in CAGR values that are roughly accurate representations of the trends in the exports and imports of the items, since the usefulness of a CAGR value is limited in cases where growth is very spotty or irregular.7
Bilateral RCA
Intuitively,abilateralrevealedcomparativeadvantage(bilateralRCA)valuethatisgreaterthan 1 indicates that the exporting country’s product X is exported to the importing country at a greater rate than it is to the rest of the world. This does not mean that exports of X are greater in absolute terms to one importing country as opposed to another- it means that X claims a greater share of total exports to the importing country than the share it claims
]
7 All CAGR values are calculated for the period 2004-2014. CAGR values have only been calculated if there are at least 3 consecutive years of recorded exports and at least one year of recorded exports within the period 2011-2014. This is so that the numbers used are recent and consistent enough to be suggestive of future trends. “_” indicates that these requirements are not met, or in the case of non-CAGR values, unavailability of data. “_*” indicates that while export numbers were reported in 2014, the years before did not meet the requirements. As a result this generally indicates very spotty and/or low growth in that particular item and therefore the item should be considered to have not performed well in terms of exports/imports. A value preceded by “*” indicates that while there were no recorded exports in 2014, the previous years’ numbers met the afore-mentioned requirements for calculating a CAGR. It should be noted that CAGR values furnish a suggestive but imprecise picture of growth trends, since very volatile growth cannot be represented accurately using measures such as CAGR or AAGR (annual average growth rate).
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
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8Bhattacharya, Ruma (2011). Revealed comparative advantage and competitiveness: A case study for India in horticultural products. International Conference on Applied Economics 2011. pp 23.9Ferto, Imre and Hubbard, Lionel (2002). Revealed Comparative Advantage and Competitiveness in Hungarian Agri-Food Sectors.
of total world exports of the exporting country. It is given by the following, as formulated in Riaz and Jansen (2012):
This measure is based on revealed comparative advantage formulated in Balassa (1965). It is given by:
Bilateral RCA is used here instead of RCA because this study focuses on a bilateral trade relationship, namely that between India and Pakistan. An RCA value below 1 for Pakistani export X does not necessarily mean that X is not a competitive export to any particular trade partner, such as India. Bilateral RCA values are specific to trading partners and reveal items that are currently competitive exports to the trading partner in question i.e. they weigh heavier in Pakistan’s export basket to India than they do in its export basket to the world. So a country may not show a global RCA within a certain product while still showing a bilateral RCA with a specific country, suggesting that the relevant product is finding a “disproportionately” large market in the importing country.
It should be noted that RCA indices are not thought to be satisfactory as cardinal and ordinal measures, and so they should be interpreted in a binary fashion (greater than 1 or less than 1.)8 9
It is very important to keep in mind that RCA indices are not a measure of comparative advantage, which is concerned with potential gains from trade based on factor endowments or technological progress, but rather measure revealed comparative advantage, which takes into account actual trade figures. In reality, it is not strictly necessary that trade figures represent underlying comparative advantage, since actual trade may be heavily distorted by government policies and other real-world factors (this is particularly relevant to a country like Pakistan which has several ill-considered and ineffective policies). Therefore, a product with a RCA>1 is not necessarily a product within which the relevant country has a comparative advantage, since it may, for instance, simply have been heavily subsidized to placate a particularly influential industry. However, RCA indices still point us in the direction of items within which it is at least likely that a country has a true comparative advantage, and are a very useful measure that can be calculated using readily available data.
Overview of methodology
These three measures, taken together, provide a concise picture of trade items individually and in aggregate form. Trade potential tells us the state of demand and supply of the traded item in the importing and exporting country respectively, CAGR values tell us how global trade of the item over a certain period by India and Pakistan compares to its trade between India and Pakistan, and bilateral RCA values tell us whether an item is being exported to the importing country at a “disproportionate” rate, suggesting that the importing country possesses a good market for the item.
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
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The three metrics are grouped together in the tables featured in this study in the following arrangement:
Pak 2014 Trade Potential
Pak-India CAGR India Import CAGR Pak Export CAGR Bilateral RCA
312.08 29.26% 12.46% 7.86% 1.47
Note: An attempt has also been made to ensure that items with significant trade potential at the 6-digit level actually exhibit said potential at the 8-digit level- since 6-digit items can be disaggregated into several 8-digit items, which are more specific categorizations of goods, and trade potential values are calculated using the cumulative exports and imports at the 6-digit level (by adding the numbers associated with each 8-digit item within it), it is possible that while one country reports large imports of product X at the 6-digit level and another country reports large exports of product X at the 6-digit level, the exports and imports for both countries at the 8-digit level are within different products for each country, and so there is a “hidden” mismatch and the potential is overstated. Because trade potential calculated at the 6-digit level considers the cumulative trade figures at the 8-digit level the potential can only be overstated and never understated. Since Pakistan and India’s 8-digit HS codes are not harmonized (they do not share the same labels), and since 8-digit data is often spotty and incomplete, it is not possible to perform trade analysis for Pakistan and India at the more accurate 8-digit level. However, in certain cases it is possible to check whether the 8-digit numbers support the trade potential at the 6-digit level by comparing product descriptions, which contain information about the salient features of the product. An effort has been made in this report to check very high potential items for this possible discrepancy, though it is not possible to completely remove this inaccuracy from the analysis performed in the study.
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
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2.0 BACKGROUND TO STUDY
India granted MFN status to Pakistan in 1996. The SAFTA agreement came into force on 1st January 2006, resulting in tariff concessions by both India and Pakistan. The final step towards normalized trade relations between the two countries is thought to be NDMA status for India to be granted by Pakistan. In a concrete overture towards liberalized trade Pakistan abolished its positive list in favour of a negative list of 1209 items in early 2012, and both countries had already cut down on their SAFTA sensitive lists in 2011. Moreover, recent years saw substantial if halting progress on the core issue, with NDMA for India reportedly approaching finalization several times, before a recent cooling down on the long-gestating matter. However, political impediments notwithstanding, NDMA status (or Non-Discriminatory Market Access) for India remains the primary question of Pakistan-India trade normalization.
Pakistan’s exports to India stood at USD 337 million in 2005 and at USD 392 million in 2014. On the other hand, Pakistan’s imports from India stood at USD 576 million in 2005 and USD 2.1 billion in 2014. This, along with the overall trend in Pakistan’s trade with India, strongly suggests that while India has made considerable strides in finding a market for its exports in Pakistan, Pakistan has largely been unable to boost its exports to India.
It is also worth noting that Pakistan has lagged behind Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, members of SAARC and part of the SAFTA agreement, in exports to India. This is important to keep in mind since SAFTA has been the most significant move towards trade liberalization in the region. India and Pakistan were expected to be the main drivers of trade once SAFTA came into effect, though it is clear that Pakistan’s trade with India remains incommensurate with the huge potential for trade that is thought to exist between the two countries. Pakistan’s relatively poor export performance with India post-SAFTA can be accounted for in part by Bangladesh facing a much shorter sensitive list under SAFTA from India, as well as Sri Lanka’s Free Trade Agreement with India. The specifics of these terms are covered in greater detail later in the study.
158
337 327 292 355235 275 273
348 403 392454577
1,1151,266
1,691
1,080
1,560 1,607 1,573
1,874
2,105
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
USD
Mill
ions
Pakistan's Trade with India
Pakistan's Exports to India Pakistan's Imports from India
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
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Several explanations have been offered for Pakistan’s disappointing performance vis-à-vis trade with India, including the efficacy of India’s non-tariff barriers and the Pakistani government’s inadequate support of export industries. With NDMA still under consideration, it is imperative that a closer look is taken at what Pakistan can expect to gain and what it can expect to lose in NDMA’s aftermath. It is also important to review the specifics of either country’s trade potential with the other by pinpointing particularly promising export areas. This information taken in tandem with concerns regarding NDMA and the current direction of trade policy can give us an idea of where things are headed for Pakistan-India trade, and whether the impending outcome is feasible.
158
337 327 292 355235 275 273
348 403 392454577
1,1151,266
1,691
1,080
1,560 1,607 1,573
1,874
2,105
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
USD
Mill
ions
Pakistan's Trade with India
Pakistan's Exports to India Pakistan's Imports from India
SECTION I : FEASIBILITY OF
GRANTING NDMA TO INDIA
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
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PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
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10No going back on NDMA, India told (2011, November 10). Dawn. Retrieved from http://www.dawn.com/.
3.0 OVERVIEW OF NDMA ISSUE
The normalization of trade between Pakistan and India ostensibly has much to recommend it- both economies stand to gain increased access to one another’s vibrant markets after years of restrictive policies and trade incommensurate with the existing potential, with Pakistan standing to benefit in particular from further concessions granted by the economic giant as well as through capital investment and joint economic ventures that are expected to accompany trade normalization.
This line of thinking has raised concerns about Pakistan dragging its feet after promising to grant NDMA status to India, with 2011 and 2012 having seen substantive overtures10 towards finalizing the process in the form of renewed dialogue between the two countries before a loss of momentum.
However, concerns have been raised about the move to grant India NDMA status without challenging the ultimate benefits of liberalized Pakistan-India trade. Any consideration of said benefits must take into account both short-term costs and the time-frame for these long-term benefits to materialize. The current situation vis-à-vis Pakistan-India trade strongly suggests serious short term losses to Pakistan and a very long gestation period before the expected advantages of open trade relations can be claimed.
The overall argument against rushing to grant India NDMA status is best understood by considering two broad problems that could arise in its wake as Pakistan abolishes its negative list:
• Indian products would gain unprecedented access to the Pakistani market on the back of direct and indirect subsidies offered by the Indian government (in addition to economies of scale) and insufficient countervailing measures by Pakistan. This would lead to many local industries facing an unfair and devastating level of competition from cheap Indian products.
• Pakistani products would make only modest inroads into the Indian market due to Indian para-tariffs, countless non-trade barriers, and more favourable tariffs available to other countries in the region. The shortcomings of the Pakistani government in ensuring proper standards for domestic manufacturers would severely impact their ability to penetrate the Indian market. While it is true that the para-tariffs and many NTBs also apply to other countries India trades with, Pakistan’s relatively liberal import regime and Pakistan-India specific NTBs place it at a significant disadvantage to India’s other trading partners.
Pakistan’s already precarious economic situation may not be able to weather the storm that could arise from granting India NDMA status given the current constellation of issues surrounding Pakistan-India trade. While NDMA status should be kept on the table, much work needs to be done to resolve the afore-mentioned issues lest NDMA backfire. In this section of the study we will attempt to identify issues that must be dealt with decisively before granting India NDMA status. We will also discuss the potential benefits of India’s promised shortening of its SAFTA sensitive list for Pakistan once NDMA is granted.
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
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11Kee, H, Nicita, A, Olarreaga, M (2009).Estimating trade restrictiveness indices. Economic Journal 2009, vol. 119 pp. 172-199.12Pasha, H, Imran, M (2012).The Prospects for Indo-Pakistan Trade. The Lahore Journal of Economics pp. 307-308.13Bailing out from Bali (2014, August 9). The Economist. Retrieved from http://www.economist.com14Indian textile export subsidy under WTO scanner. The Indian Express. Retrieved from http://www.indianexpress.com.
3.1 NON-TARIFF BARRIERS
India imposes several non-tariff barriers on imports while heavily supporting its own exports, and this should be cause for particular concern to a country with a much weaker economy such as Pakistan when mulling over free trade with India. In 2012 the World Bank calculated the overall trade restrictiveness index (OTRI) for several countries, and its findings suggest that India has a heavily protectionist trade policy. The OTRI calculates the uniform tariff that will keep its overall imports at the current level when the country in reality has different tariffs for different goods.11 According to the values calculated in 2012 India had the highest OTRI in not only South Asia but the rest of Asia as well, with NTBs impacting the OTRI value by a relatively high amount. In comparison Pakistan’s OTRI is much lower, with a relatively low contribution by NTBs to its magnitude.12
Country OTRIPercentage increase in OTRI
due to NTBs
India 46.7 24.5
China 21.2 9.9
Bangladesh 23.8 0.8
Pakistan 22.2 5.1
In light of India’s continuing legacy of protectionist policies, what benefits can Pakistan realistically hope to accrue by granting India NDMA status and gaining some reciprocal slackening of restrictions? In this section we will survey India’s NTBs, with emphasis on those that stand to impact Pakistan the most given the challenges it already faces.
3.1.1 SUBSIDIES
Many Indian products are given significant artificial boosts to their competitiveness through aggressive government subsidies. India has yet to shake off its dogged protectionist reputation. Its 2015 budget earmarked USD 37 billion for major subsidies, with USD 20 billion reserved for food subsidies during the fiscal year 2015-2016. India’s continuing use of subsidies within certain areas has drawn the ire of the WTO and objections from the US and other countries.13
14The recent announcement of the MEIS scheme (analysed later on in this report) promises more comprehensive and streamlined support to Indian exports. India also offers stable and generous support to its farmers and manufacturers by subsidizing inputs such as water and power. Granting India NDMA would lead to lower restrictions on certain Pakistani exports to India, but exports would still be competing against heavily subsidized domestic products in India. At the same time, NDMA would open up Pakistan’s markets to artificially low-cost items from India. Pakistan, on the other hand, has faltered in providing similar support to its own industries, and also lacks the resources to set the appropriate countervailing duties to counteract India’s subsidies, leaving local industries particularly exposed.
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Agricultural products
Agricultural protection in India is very high. In its budget for fiscal year 2014-2015 India allocated USD 18.4 billion (0.95% of GDP) for direct food subsidies. Pakistan’s total food subsidies in its 2014-2015 federal budget amounted to USD 161 million (0.06% of GDP) when added up15. Pakistan allocated USD 147 million for subsidies to farms, none of which was disbursed since agriculture became a subject of the provinces and a mechanism to spend the subsidy could not be devised.16 Moreover, Pakistan does not currently directly subsidize its agricultural sector, Moreover, Pakistan does not currently subsidize its agricultural sector, with the exception of a subsidy to wheat.
India’s 1.15 trillion rupees (USD 18.8 billion) spending on food subsidies in 2012 touched 1% of GDP, double what it was in 2009. This figure does not count subsidies to farmers for fertilisers, tractor fuel and the like, which are also considerable. As of fiscal year 2012, India offered subsidies on fertilizer worth a total of USD 15 billion. Other subsidies went to irrigation (USD 6.3 billion), electricity consumption by farmers (USD 7.3 billion) and to other inputs like seed, tractors, crop insurance, etc. (USD 8.8 billion). The total agricultural subsidy bill for India in FY12 was estimated at USD 3.7 billion, equivalent to 2.2 % of the GDP.17
On the other hand in FY12 Pakistan spent USD 356 million on fertiliser (net of the GST on the input). Other subsidies are for irrigation (USD 193 million), electricity and others (USD 342 million). The total subsidy aggregates to USD 897 million, which is 0.4 % of the GDP. Therefore, controlling for the size of the economy, Indian subsidies to agriculture are five and a half times as much as those imposed by Pakistan.18
Under WTO regulations, trade-distorting subsidies to farmers in a developing country cannot exceed 10% of the total value of its harvests, but under a new food-security law, India is adopting a USD 4 billion-a-year scheme to provide cheap food for 800 million people. This means that the minimum support prices offered to farmers will continue to increase. If these measures breach the 10% limit, India will be in violation of WTO rules. However, the government insists it will not sacrifice food security for the sake of WTO compliance, making its commitment to subsidies clear.19 It has been argued that India’s policy of subsidizing certain crops at home and restricting imports through tariffs and NTBs ultimately hurts its food security instead of protecting it, since India is left vulnerable to shocks resulting from reduced crop output at home because it is not integrated into the global market.20 However, India remains committed to providing these subsidies.
It should also be noted that in addition to heavy subsidies, India maintains average WTO bound tariffs of 119.1%, and an average NDMA applied rate of 35.1% on the same. This allows India to frequently vary its applied rates on products such as sugar, rice and wheat, creating instability for agricultural exports. When there is a shortfall in domestic production, the applied rates are dropped to cushion the blow to consumers, whereas a surplus will often lead to a rise in the applied rates to aid farmers.
15Pakistan’s 2014-2015 Federal budget in brief. Retrieved from http://finance.gov.pk/. The following subsidies add up to the total subsidy cited: all subsidies to USC, all subsidies to PASSCO, subsidies for sale of wheat in FATA, sale of wheat in Gilgit Baltistan, sale of salt in Gilgit Baltistan. 16Rs 15b farming subsidy still unconsumed (2015 April 28). The Nation. Retrieved from http://nation.com.pk/.17Agriculture subsidies: Pakistan versus India (2014 March 28). The Business Recorder. Retrieved from http://www.brecorder.com/.18Ibid.19Bailing out from Bali (2014, August 9). The Economist. Retrieved from http://www.economist.com20Pearson, Dan. India’s Dangerous Food Subsidies (2014, August 27). The Diplomat. Retrieved from http://thediplomat.com/.
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21India textile export subsidy under WTO scanner (2015, January 3).The Indian Express. Retrieved from http://indianexpress.com/.22Waleed, Hamid. Textile specific subsidies in India make Pakistan industry uncompetitive: APTMA (2015, January 28). The Business Recorder. Retrieved from http://www.brecorder.com/.
All of this strongly suggests that NDMA would serve to cement India’s advantage in the export of agricultural products to Pakistan and thereby pose an unfair level of competition to domestic producers. Furthermore, Pakistan lacks the financial space and the institutional capacity to either sufficiently increase its own subsidies or apply appropriate countervailing duties to offset India’s subsidies. Hence it would be able to do little to stem the inflow of cheap Indian goods post-NDMA.
Textile products
India currently subsidizes its textile exports in what is thought by some to be a direct violation of WTO policy. The WTO’s Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures states that when the share of a developing country (with per capita income below USD 1,000 a year) in global exports reaches 3.25% in any product category for two consecutive years, it can be said to have gained “export competitiveness” and must phase out all export subsidies within eight years from the second year of breach.
The US contends that India’s “textiles and clothing” exports exceeded the WTO set limit in 2005 and remained above that level in 2006. It therefore must end its export subsidies for these items by January 2015. It is difficult to countenance subsidies to Indian textile exports given the country’s competitiveness within the product category. India’s share in world trade for textile and clothing was 4.66% in 2013 with exports worth USD 37 billion. Textile and clothing exports contribute more than 10 per cent to India’s export basket. They are the fourth largest product group in India’s outbound shipment basket.21
India also has the long-running Technology Upgradation Fund Scheme (TUFS) for its textile sector. This popular scheme incentivises the development of modern technological processes within the textile industry by offering reimbursements and subsidies to industrialists who take measures that fall within the scope of the scheme.
On the other hand, Pakistan’s textile policy for 2014-19 allocated Rs. 64 billion for the sector, which was dismissed as being insufficient by the chairman of APTMA (All Pakistan Textile Mills Association). The chairman stated that a subsidy of Rs. 200 billion was required given the industry’s needs. It should also be noted that Pakistan has a spotty track record of actually sticking to its subsidy schemes: Rs. 180 billion were allocated to textile subsidies in the Textile Policy 2009-14 whereas only Rs. 28 billion were actually disbursed.22
Pakistan’s National Tariff Commission
The granting of NDMA will undoubtedly lead to demands from certain local industries for safeguard measures (defined under SAFTA) against the sudden heavy competition from Indian products. These need to be investigated by the National Tariff Commission. However, the NTC faces several serious challenges to fulfilling its responsibilities.
There are currently major legislative hurdles to the effective functioning of the NTC: under The Anti-Dumping Ordinance, 2015 Section 70 (1) (i) and Countervailing Duties Ordinance, 2015 Section 32 (2) (a) any interested party can appeal to the appellate tribunal against the initiation of and investigation or a preliminary determination by the NTC. Granting the right of appeal at the initiation of an investigation raises the risk of abuse as any investigation can be delayed by the misuse of the section. The right of appeal should instead be granted at the
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completion of the investigation. No action has been taken so far on this issue. Furthermore, even if the appellate tribunal is able to give a ruling, if the petitioner wishes to challenge the decision of the tribunal he must bring the issue before the judiciary. However, the judges who handle these cases are not aware of the relevant trade regulations and this sometimes leads to a miscarriage of justice. Another issue that has been identified is that in order to receive safeguard measures an industry must be able to present a precedent, meaning they must already have evidence of damage incurred by dumping, artificially cheap imports etc. Yet the point of safeguard measures is to pre-empt such damage, and therefore it makes little sense for their instatement to depend on such damage already having occurred for a period. For this reason it is necessary that pre-emption of damage resulting from dumping be covered by the relevant legislation.
Under the NTC ordinance, 2015, the NTC is now responsible for performing trade research, tariff rationalization and harmonization of HS codes. These tasks are essential to the promotion of Pakistani trade and yet the NTC simply does not at the current time possess the resources to undertake them successfully.
The NTC therefore lacks the institutional capacity to fulfil its myriad responsibilities. It would be irresponsible to grant NDMA without first developing the NTC as an institution and equipping it with the expertise and resources to perform its primary functions. Pakistan stands to expose itself to serious economic harm if the NTC remains toothless post-NDMA.
India’s unswaying commitment to subsidies and Pakistan’s ineffective protection of its own high potential industries are abundantly clear. NDMA status should not be granted without fully considering both the effects India’s subsidies would have in the case of unrestricted trade on local Pakistani industries, and the resources that would be required to protect and support said industries once India is given NDMA status.
3.1.2 TECHNICAL BARRIERS TO TRADE
Primary Technical Barriers to Trade
1India’s standards regime, which is unique to India and in certain cases does not recognize standards developed and enforced in developed countries.
2India’s complicated and stringent requirements for labelling and packaging, quarantine, certification etc. for many high potential Pakistani export products.
3
India’s complex state-specific requirements which do not allow foreign companies to treat India as ‘one market’. Additionally information on state requirements appears to have deliberately been kept vague in order to discourage foreign companies and to protect domestic commerce from global/regional competitors.
India has a famously strict regime for quality standards, with 24 standard setting bodies. The Bureau for Indian Standards (BIS) sets standards for 14 sectors including civil engineering, food and agriculture. Pakistan’s standard setting body (PSQCA) lacks the facilities to properly certify Pakistani products, and this is a serious obstacle to exports since India imposes its standards rigorously and does not accept PSQCA certifications (though it has signed an agreement with BIS which we discuss later in this section).
The general experience of Pakistani exporters trading with India seems to involve long waiting periods for certification, complex rules and regulations and very exacting authorities. Furthermore, there is little effort by the Pakistani government to support exporters doing business with India- for example, the government could fast-track the development of quality testing facilities within Pakistan or trade bodies could simply work to apprise exporters of the
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oftentimes state-specific Indian standards for import items, but no such measures have been taken as of yet.
The consequences of Indian standards and the capacity of the PSQCA are most relevant where items such as agriculture products, textiles and cement are concerned, since these are products with high potential for Pakistani exports to India (certain products, such as textile products, stand to be removed by India from its sensitive list under SAFTA in return for Pakistan’s granting of NDMA). While India’s enforcement of its standards will impede the flow of Pakistani products into India, Pakistan’s standards bodies may in fact let in faulty goods from India due to their lack of resources.
While the primary impediment to agricultural exports is India’s aggressive support of its domestic product via subsidies and high tariffs on Pakistani products, there is still a multiplicity of complex rules and regulations that agricultural products must conform to in order to be imported into India. Moreover, standards for several products vary state-by-state. The low standards imposed by the PSQCA may mean that Indian quality control bodies are more wary of Pakistani products than products from other countries, which would explain the inordinate difficulties reported by Pakistani exporters in satisfying the necessary requirements. Moreover, obtaining the Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) certificates and fulfilling quarantine and testing requirements for agricultural products takes a long time. Facilities for these tests are only available in Delhi and Mumbai, which compounds the problem.
Textile exports to India require a pre-shipment certification from an accredited laboratory on the use of hazardous dyes. Due to Pakistan’s dearth of internationally accredited quality control facilities this too frequently takes a long time, since businessmen are forced to use foreign facilities. Stringent SPS requirements apply to textiles as well and once again Pakistani exporters face problems in meeting them due to the lack of resources within Pakistan. India’s SPS and related standards and tests are most comprehensive and exacting for agricultural and textile products, which are the two areas within which Pakistan is thought to have the highest export potential to India. 23
The BIS Certification requirement for cement is as rigorous and involved as the afore-mentioned standards and has a validity of one year. The stipulated period of certification procedures for renewal is between three to four weeks. However, in case of Pakistani companies exporting cement to India, it reportedly takes more than six months, which is a major disadvantage to exporters.
Other Pakistani exports with significant potential also face demanding standards. For leather items samples of the consignment must be sent to testing laboratories that are located far away from the port of entry in India, whereas in the case of processed foods, products must have 60% of the shelf life at the time of import, and it has been alleged by exporters that this shelf life is determined without transparency. In the case of pharmaceutical products Pakistani exporters have said that the mandatory registration of the drug in question with the Central Drug Standard Control Organization in India is a difficult and time-consuming process.
More generally, most items imported by India face the following preconditions: labelling requirements, packaging requirements, quarantine requirements, certification and standards requirements and testing requirements.
23Pasha, H, Imran, M (2012). Pakistan-India Trade Liberalization: the impact of Non-Tariff Barriers, p. 43. Retrieved from http://pdf.usaid.gov/.
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Requirements Description
1. Labelling Applies to certain items, cumbersome
2. Packaging Applies to certain items, not cumbersome
3. QuarantineApplies to items such as food and raw cotton, cumbersome due to lack of facilities for road, rail consignments
4. CertificationApplies to most items, cumbersome due to delays in procuring certification from relevant bodies
5. TestingApplies to most items, cumbersome due to distance of testing facilities located in Delhi and Mumbai
Labelling requirements are cumbersome to fulfil and entail ensuring that the brand name and serial number of the product in question are provided. The issue here is that India does not have a common labelling requirement and states have their own sets of regulations. Packaging must be approved by the BIS, and this requirement encompasses most items. Quarantine requirements apply to items such as food and raw cotton, and are reportedly costly and complicated by a lack of quarantine facilities for road and rail consignments, thereby causing delays. Certification requirements can be fulfilled by various bodies such as the BIS, certain Indian authorities, SAFTA, SAARC and other certifying firms abroad. The primary issue associated with this requirement is frequent delays that can last for months. Testing requirements generally take up to a few weeks to fulfil, though the fact that testing facilities are located far away in Delhi and Mumbai end up making the process difficult.
The PSQCA signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the BIS in September 2012 to extend its ability to certify Pakistani exports to India. However, the PSQCA reportedly lacks accreditation by international laboratories of the testing facilities mentioned in the MOU, rendering the efficacy of this agreement moot. Moreover, there seems to have been no movement on this issue following the signing of the MOU three years ago. This is a worrying level of neglect given the looming prospect of NDMA, especially since at the time of the signing of the MOU Pakistan’s inability to capitalize on such an agreement given the absence of the necessary facilities was known and reported in the press.24
Both sides have failed to provide facilities for SPS checking at the border, though Pakistan simply does not implement standards as comprehensively or stringently as India, and therefore Indian products, while probably held up by inefficient custom procedures, are not subjected to extensive, time-consuming testing on their way to Pakistan.
Custom procedures are reported as being prohibitively cumbersome at times, with a lack of tracking and tracing facilities and low quality logistic services. This is an issue for both sides, though India’s more stringent procedures mean that any inefficiency is magnified, whereas Pakistan’s relatively lax standards likely translates to lower NTBs arising during this part of the process.
It is also important to note that since NDMA will open the floodgates to many Indian products, Pakistan’s inadequate testing facilities will come under renewed strain. Goods of questionable quality will most likely enter the market in much higher numbers. The pharmaceutical sector in Pakistan, for instance, has expressed reservations about NDMA since it is thought that Indian pharmaceutical products of dubious quality will gain access to the Pakistani market due to a lack of proper testing facilities.
24PSQCA: lack of accredited facilities may hinder exports to India (2012 October 4). The Business Recorder. Retrieved from http://www.brecorder.com/.
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Raising concerns about India’s NTBs does not amount to pointing fingers at India- an equally intractable problem is Pakistan’s own lack of resources when it comes to quality testing. However, the fact remains that given India’s current technical barriers to trade and Pakistan’s ill-equipped PSQCA, Pakistani exports to India will be at a serious disadvantage even after the removal of certain high-potential items from India’s sensitive list. In other words, Pakistan’s products will face serious resistance on their way to penetrating the Indian market, significantly limiting any benefits Pakistan can hope to claim from free trade with India. On the other hand, Indian imports to Pakistan will face little resistance and may not be inspected properly. Therefore granting NDMA to India does not seem feasible until progress is made on this issue.25
3.1.3 PARA-TARIFFS
India levies high para-tariffs on its imports in addition to the basic customs duty. The para-tariffs consist of countervailing duty, education cess and secondary and higher education cess. The cumulative effect of these duties and cess rates is significantly greater on imported products as compared to the effect on local products, putting imports at a serious disadvantage. It should be noted that education cess is applied only on selected products.
India’s Tariff Protection Tariff on imported goods On local producer
Basic Duty 5 0
CVD- Add. Duty/Excise 12 12
(12% of basic duty) 12.60% 12.60%
Education Cess 2 2
(2% of basic duty + CVD) 0.35% 0.24%
SAH Education Cess 1 1
(1% of basic duty + CVD) 0.18% 0.12%
Special CVD 4 0
(4% of basic+CVD+Edu+SAH) 4.73% 0.00%
Para-Tariff 18% 12%
Total Duty 23% 12%
Difference b/w local producer and exporter
=11%
While these para-tariffs are not applied on Pakistani products in a discriminatory fashion, they still pose a significant impediment to imports, especially in areas where Pakistan is going up against countries that already have an established presence in the Indian market. On the other hand, Pakistan’s para-tariffs are lower on average.
Pakistan’s Tariff Protection Tariff on imported goods On local producer
Basic Customs Duty 5.00% 0.00%
Sales Tax 17% 17%
Total Duty 22% 17%
Difference b/w local producer and exporter
=5%
Since Pakistan’s General Sales Tax (GST), which represents the largest portion of Pakistani para-tairffs, is exempt for imports of food, raw materials and capital goods, some Pakistani products
25This portion of this report relies heavily on information found in Pasha and Imran (2012), which contains an in-depth and insightful discussion of NTBs faced by both sides in the Pakistan-India trade relationship.
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have a 5% advantage over imports where others have none, whereas local producers in India have a leeway by a margin of at least 10%. Therefore, India’s para-tariffs restrict access to its market to a much larger extent than do Pakistan’s, once again putting the weaker country at a disadvantage in the trading relationship.
3.1.4 VISAS
India imposes a restrictive visa regime on Pakistani applicants, with particularly cumbersome requirements imposed on applicants who are businessmen. The visa policy on both sides is a result of the countries’ long history of political conflict and continuing lack of trust. In the absence of a more liberal visa regime the development of business relations faces a serious impediment as interaction between the two business communities, vital for the facilitation of trade, remains limited.26
Pakistani applicants for the business visa must first obtain a sponsor certificate from an India sponsor, who must in turn have the certificate attested by a government official. Indian sponsors are reportedly hesitant to issue the necessary letter, and the process as a whole can be time-consuming.
Visa approval regularly takes four to eight weeks, though in certain cases it has taken up to three months. This is a major deterrent to doing trade since businessmen on the Indian side cannot be assured that the traders on the Pakistani side will be able to send representatives or technical personnel etc. promptly in case of any complaints or issues with products. This is a particularly important issue where machinery exports are concerned. Pakistanis are also required to report to the police on arrival and before departing, thereby creating an atmosphere of suspicion and harassment.
A visa agreement signed in 2012 between the two countries promised to give businessmen who have an annual income of at least Rs. 0.5 million one year visas for five cities with up to four entries, and a one year visa for 10 cities with exemption from police reporting to businessmen with an annual income of at least Rs. 5 million. While this is a step in the right direction, the ground reality does not reflect these changes. Multiple entry visa applications are now accepted but businessmen continue to face serious difficulties in actually obtaining such visas to India.
A business visa holder from Pakistan cannot remain in India for more than 30 continuous days on any one visit and still faces a limit on the number of cities he or she can visit. Police reporting is still required for businessmen below the afore-mentioned income threshold. These are not features of India’s visa regimes for other countries such as Sri Lanka and China. Therefore Pakistani businessmen are at a serious disadvantage with respect to trade with India since interacting with their Indian counterparts is made difficult by visa policy.
One of the major issues echoed by analysts and stakeholders on the subject of Pak-India trade is the lack of constructive and consistent communication between the two countries. A liberal visa policy would be the first step towards tackling this problem. Yet the fact that fundamental issues to do with the visa regime remain unaddressed in spite of all the recent overtures towards liberalizing trade casts doubt on the prudence of either side’s long-term planning. There is little hope of Pakistan and India building stronger trade ties without facing serious short-term hurdles as long as issues such as the visa regime and technical barriers to trade remain largely unresolved. If Pakistan is to further open up its markets to a giant like India, India must reciprocate by taking the initiative and truly easing its visa policies first.
26Taneja, N (2013). Normalizing Pakistan India trade p. 20-23.Retrieved from http://www.icrier.org/.
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27Pakistan, India may allow bank branches (2014 Jan 17). Dawn. Retrieved from http://www.dawn.com/.
3.1.5 BANKING
Letters of credit, against which consignments are dispatched, are issued by banks and are regularly rejected by the other country’s banks. The lack of acceptance of letters of credit is a major stumbling block for Pakistan-India trade. It forces traders to rely on contracts offered by banks without the explicit guarantee of payment. As a result, trade as it stands between India and Pakistan is rife with payment-based delays, defaults and poor dispute resolution. Businessmen in both countries have suggested allowing banks to open branches in the trading country. In August 2012 there was an agreement to issue a banking license to two banks from each country. From the Indian side the State Bank of India and the Bank of India were to be granted permission to operate in Pakistan, and from the Pakistani side the National Bank of Pakistan and United Bank were to be given reciprocal permission. However, there seems to have been little movement on the issue in the three years since the agreement was made.27
Non-tariff barriers such as issues involving banking and the visa regime are likely to have a disproportionately negative effect on the more resource-poor country in a trade relationship. Therefore, Pakistan stands to suffer greater set-backs due to these problems than does India once trade restrictions are eased, since it is in a weaker position, both in terms of its economy and government institutions. A decisive resolution to these issues may elude both countries for a long time to come, but granting NDMA status to India does not seem advisable until at least some substantive progress is made on these issues. So far growing vociferousness on the topic of trade liberalization has not been accompanied by a concomitant renewal of initiative when it comes to solving problems and levelling the playing field between the two unequal trade partners. Yet it is just such a change in attitude that is required to ease Pakistan’s transition to the NDMA agreement with India.
3.1.6 NOTE ON “NON-DISCRIMINATORY” NATURE OF NTBs
Discussions about Pakistan granting India NDMA often include the claim that India’s NTBs are non-discriminatory and do not put Pakistan at any special disadvantage relative to India’s other trade partners. However, even a cursory knowledge of Pakistan-India trade suggests that this is not entirely true. Pakistan and India’s fraught relationship means that the NTBs imposed by both sides are coloured by their contentious relations. The visa regimes both countries impose on one another are more restrictive than those they impose on other countries. Issues to do with banking are also unique to Pakistan-India relations. Businessmen on both sides of the border complain about unfair treatment at the hands of the other’s trade authorities, and these complaints are lent credence by the ingrained mistrust which results from historically volatile relations between the two countries. There is also an oft-cited need for effective trade dispute resolution mechanisms which has so far gone unfulfilled.
All of this amounts to barriers to trade that are particularly intractable in the case of Pakistan and India. While both sides suffer, Pakistan, being the smaller economy and having deficient government resources, suffers more. Improving the situation and removing certain NTBs is undoubtedly a two-way street. The lack of progress on this front clearly spells disaster for Pakistan if trade is normalized at this point, as it will remain hobbled by these discriminatory NTBs even as India is able to overcome them to a much greater extent and capture the Pakistani market.
It is true that granting India NDMA status is a necessary move if the trust deficit between the two countries is to be removed and normalization of trade relations commenced. However,
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NDMA will only have this impact if India takes measures to ease its NTBs in Pakistan’s case as a gesture of good faith. Otherwise, NDMA may actually end in more problems for the India-Pakistan trade relationship as artificially competitive Indian goods wipe out local Pakistani industries and Pakistani exports to India falter in the face of ironclad NTBs. In other words, the scales must be made more even before NDMA is granted lest they tip even further in India’s favour post-NDMA.
As suggested by the PBC’s 2013 report on Pakistan-India trade normalization, one way to do this would be to agree upon a mechanism (administered by a joint India-Pakistan trade council) whereby NTBs could be recognized by both countries and concrete objectives subsequently set for their removal.
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4.0 PURPORTED BENEFITS OF INDIA REDUCING ITS SENSITIVE LIST IN RETURN FOR NDMA
In March 2014 it was reported that Pakistan was on the verge of granting India NDMA (Non-Discriminatory Market Access, another name for MFN status) after India agreed to exclude 160 items, most of them textile products, from its Pakistan-specific sensitive list under SAARC, and eventually cut the list down to 100 items. This has been touted as one of the major benefits of giving India NDMA status- in return Pakistan will gain tariff concessions on a number of textile items.
However, given the concerns that have been raised regarding the granting of NDMA, a closer look at the potential benefit of this increased market access seems to be in order since it is this potential benefit that is often cited as one of the primary arguments for giving India NDMA.
India has signed FTAs with SAARC countries Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bhutan. Bangladesh faces the LDC (Least Developed Country) sensitive list, which contains only 25 items (including no textile items), as opposed to the NLDC (Non-Least Developed Country) list which contains 614 items and applies to Pakistan and Sri Lanka. India’s trade with Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bhutan is governed in large part by their FTAs rather than SAFTA’s terms.
India’s trade with Sri Lanka and Bangladesh has grown much more significantly than its trade with Pakistan over the last few years, and this section will argue that the concessions India has offered in return for NDMA will do little to help Pakistan play catch up, since most of the terms that have allowed Sri Lanka and Bangladesh to maintain an advantage over Pakistan in the Indian market will remain in place post-NDMA.
The Least Developed Countries in SAARC, which include Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan, face significantly deeper tariff concessions on items not on the sensitive list than do the Non-Least Developing Countries, which include Pakistan and Sri Lanka. However, Sri Lanka’s trade with India falls under its FTA, which leaves Pakistan facing the highest tariffs under SAFTA. Moreover, while Sri Lanka faces the longer NLDC sensitive list, 247 of the 614 items on it are zero-rated as per its FTA with India. Items not included in India’s FTAs with Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bhutan are still exportable for the countries at more favourable tariff rates than those applicable to Pakistan. The same is true for Bangladesh, an LDC- it gets higher concessions on most items than Pakistan and faces a much smaller sensitive list. India’s pruning of the sensitive list in return for NDMA status will therefore not put Pakistan on an equal footing with other SAFTA countries
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
USD
Mill
ions
Indian Imports
Sri Lanka's Exports to India
Bangladesh's Exports to India
Pakistan's Exports to India
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as far as non-sensitive list items are concerned. Moreover, there is no firm commitment on exactly which items will be removed from the sensitive list and whether the lowered tariffs on them for Pakistan will be consistent with those applied to other countries.
The India-Sri Lanka FTA was signed in 2000 and offered immediate full concession on 1351 items and full concession on a further 2870 items by 2003. Therefore it enjoys zero tariffs on most items, whereas Pakistan faces NLDC tariffs on all non-sensitive list items.28
Tariff Liberalization under India-Sri Lanka FTA
Tariff reductions India’s concessions to
Sri Lanka
Negative List/ Sensitive List 1,220
Immediate Zero Duty (March 2000) 1,351
ZeroDutywithinthreeyears(cutsof50%,75%and100%byMarch2003) 2,870
A closer look reveals that Pakistani export items under the high potential HS codes of agricultural, plastic and textile products etc. face tariffs that are consistently higher than tariffs faced by the other members of SAARC. Notification No. 67/2006 issued by the Indian government lays out the initial structure of the SAFTA concessions- certain items for both LDCs and NLDCs receive concessions under SAFTA, with NLDCs receiving fewer and lower concessions than LDCs, whereas other items do not receive concessions for either category of country (the no concession lists for both NLDCs and LDCs contained several high potential items, though the NLDC list was longer). Furthermore, not all countries within the same category face exactly the same tariffs from India. Notifications subsequent to No. 67/2006 have amended the specifics of SAFTA terms (most notably No. 133/2010, which significantly deepened concessions on the concession items listed in No.67/2006, with NLDCs facing tariffs on said items ranging between 5% and 11% and LDCs facing zero tariffs on the same), and so the initial structuring of concessions has gradually changed as more items on India’s old sensitive lists from No.67/2006 now receive some level of concession from India. NLDCs still face higher tariffs and fewer concessions than do LDCs.
Plastics
The initial list of no-concession plastic items was more or less identical for NLDCs and LDCs, with all 6-digit HS codes from HS 391510 to HS 392690 placed on the list. The remaining HS 39 items received concessions for both NLDCs and LDCs, with LDCs enjoying higher concessions. Subsequent amendments to the terms have deepened concessions for both Pakistan and the LDCs, though the LDCs have a very marked competitive edge in nearly all plastics items in terms of imports to India. It should be noted, for instance, that a 2011 amendment to Notification No. 107/2008 gave full concession to Bangladesh for nearly all of the original sensitive list plastic items. Bhutan and Nepal also enjoy full concession on nearly all of these items. Furthermore, Notification No. 133/2010 increased the level of concessions on the items that initially received SAFTA concessions in 2006, with Pakistan facing between 5% and 11% on these items and LDCs facing zero tariffs on the same. NLDCs including Pakistan have received further concessions on the initial concession items since the 2010 notification, but the high potential HS codes 391510 to 392690 remain on the NLDC sensitive list and continue to face tariffs of around 10% as compared to zero tariffs for the LDCs on the same items. The rest of the plastic HS codes face higher tariff rates for Pakistan than for the LDCs and Sri Lanka as well. There is no commitment from India to change this once Pakistan grants NDMA.
28Table from PBC’s 2013 report “Pakistan India trade and a viable roadmap for trade liberalization”.
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
22
29Copies of all notifications referenced in this section are available at http://www.cbec.gov.in/.
Textiles
Much attention has been paid in particular to the prospect of India removing textile items from its sensitive list (revised from its initial form in Notification No. 67/2006), thereby improving Pakistan’s access to its textile market. These sensitive list textile items already face low or zero duties for Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Bangladesh. Notification No. 51/2008, for instance, granted Bangladesh full concession on 164 out of 187 high potential HS 61 and 62 items that were initially given no concessions under SAFTA. Pakistan’s trade potential calculated at the 6 -digit level within the 182 textile products and cotton on the sensitive list (comprised of HS codes 52, 54, 55, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63) amounts to around USD 550 million. It should further be kept in mind that not all these items will necessarily be exempted-no explicit commitment has been made to removing all textile items from the list. Moreover this is a small figure in comparison to the potential for exports India would be able to realize in the wake of NDMA status. Even with the items off the sensitive list, Pakistan would have to contend with the afore-mentioned NTBs when exporting the products. There would also be competition from countries such as Bangladesh that have faced low to zero tariffs on the same items for years and have captured significant portions of the market (Bangladesh reports USD 120 million of exports to India within these items). These considerations throw doubt on the extent of benefits Pakistan can expect to reap from the shortening of India’s NLDC sensitive list.
Agriculture
Some high potential agricultural items remain on India’s NLDC sensitive list and no commitment has yet been given on the removal of these from the list following the granting of NDMA. For instance, HS 70310 and HS 71220 (onions) are still on the sensitive list and have over USD 600 million worth of trade potential to India at the 6-digit level. Pakistan also faces significantly higher tariffs on non-sensitive list items than do the LDCs. This will continue to be the case following NDMA.
This brief overview suggests that a reduction in the NLDC sensitive list will not bring Pakistan major benefits, as it will continue to face relatively high tariffs on the vast majority of high potential imports to India. Therefore, it is doubtful that NDMA can be justified by citing the advantages a pruning of the NLDC sensitive list will bring, especially in light of the risks it entails.29
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
23
5.0 BRIEF OVERVIEW OF INDIA’S 2015 FOREIGN TRADE POLICY AND MEIS
India’s Foreign Trade Policy for 2015 is aggressively geared towards incentivizing Indian exports and features strengthened and simplified schemes that directly and indirectly subsidize and lend support to export commodities. In addition to direct and indirect subsidies to export products several measures are to be undertaken to streamline the export process and reduce transaction costs. The most notable initiative is a new export subsidy scheme- Merchandise Exports from India Scheme (MEIS).
The objective of MEIS is to offset costs resulting from infrastructural inefficiencies involved in the export of Indian goods, with particular emphasis paid to those commodities which have high export intensity and employment potential. MEIS consolidates five different schemes from the former trade policy which each had different kinds of duty scrips30 with varying conditions. Under the MEIS scheme however, no conditionality is attached to the scrips, which are essentially rebates on purchase of inputs for manufactured goods, thereby greatly enhancing the ease with which its benefits can be availed.31 Exporters with good track records are designated as Status Holders and are eligible for various regulatory exceptions and administrative advantages such as the right to self-certify the origin of their goods. The basis of calculation of the reward will be on realized FOB value of exports in free foreign exchange, or on the FOB value of exports as given in the Shipping Bills in free foreign exchange, whichever is less unless otherwise specified.
MEIS is applicable on nearly 5000 items at the 8-digit HS code, out of which the subsidies apply to Pakistan for 1005 items given its Category C country status.
The MEIS scheme has a counterpart services scheme called SEIS. Other export support schemes in India’s 2015 Foreign Trade Policy include the Niryat Bandhu Hand holding scheme (which offers training to new and potential exporters), Towns of Export Excellence (towns exporting above a certain threshold receive additional support), Duty Exemption Schemes (allows duty free import of inputs), and Export Promotions Capital Good Scheme (facilitates imports of capital goods to improve export competitiveness).
5.1 MEIS ANALYSIS
In this section we will attempt to identify products within which India has high potential for exports to Pakistan that have been granted subsidies under MEIS. It is imperative that such items be rigorously identified using comprehensive data in order to help determine where countervailing duties need to be imposed. The bulk of this analysis was performed at the 6 -digit HS code level due to the unavailability of Pakistani data at the 8-digit level.32 This is not ideal since MEIS awards are imposed at the 8-digit level, and the 8-digit level allows for a greater degree of accuracy in analysing trade figures. It should be kept in mind that India and Pakistan’s 8-digit codes are not completely harmonized which would complicate such analysis. Items for which Pakistan’s 8-digit data was available for 2013 have also been considered in this
30Duty free scrips are paper authorisations that allow the holder to domestically procure or import inputs or machinery required for manufacturing products that are exported without paying duties/taxes equivalent to the scrip value. So if a duty scrip is worth Rs 50,000, the holder can use it to import the relevant good without paying duties/taxes up to Rs. 50,000.31The scrips can be used for the following requirements:(i) Payment of Customs Duties for import of inputs or goods, except items listed in Appendix 3A.(ii) Payment of excise duties on domestic procurement of inputs or goods, including capital goods as per DoR notification.(iii) Payment of service tax on procurement of services as per DoR notification.(iv) Payment of Customs Duty and fee as per paragraph 3.18 of this Policy.32No 8-digit data for Pakistani trade was available for 2014 at the time of the writing of this report, and Pakistan’s 8-digit data for previous years was patchy and incomplete.
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
24
section. Averages of MEIS subsidy values are taken for the 6-digit level products. Complete 2013 data (Pakistan has reported no 8-digit data for 2014) was available at the 8-digit level for a total of 274 items out of the 1005 items that will receive MEIS benefits.
TOP 50 HIGH POTENTIAL INDIAN EXPORTS TO PAKISTAN WITH MEIS SUBSIDY AT 6-DIGIT HS CODE LEVEL
While MEIS applies to 1005 items at the 8-digit HS code level where Indian exports to Pakistan are concerned, at the less specific 6-digit level this collapses into a total of 485 items. The total trade potential at the 6-digit level for Indian exports to Pakistan for the 485 items comes out to USD 1.4 billion. The following table lists the fifty 6-digit level items with the highest trade potential. In other words, these items are exported to the world in large quantities by India and imported from the world in large quantities by Pakistan, and therefore it is these items that stand to gain the most from MEIS subsidies. Collectively these fifty items represent USD 1.1 billion of trade potential. MEIS reward values marked by asterisks indicate that not all the 8-digit items within the 6-digit code face the same MEIS reward.
USD Millions TOP 50 HIGH POTENTIAL INDIAN EXPORTS WITH MEIS SUBSIDY
HS Code
Product LabelMEIS
Reward
Pak 2014 Imports
from India
Pakistan 2014
World Imports
India 2014
World Exports
Trade Potential
090240Black tea (fermented) & partly fermented tea in packages exceedg 3 kg
3.86* 24 319 588 295
230400Soya-bean oil-cake&oth solid residues,whether or not ground or pellet
5 194 479 1,172 285
210690 Food preparations nes 3 1 71 170 70
230990 Animal feed preparations nes 3 0 50 165 50
950300Tricycles, scooters, pedal cars and similar wheeled toys; dolls'' carr
5 0 37 40 37
190110Prep of cereals,flour,starch/milk f infant use,put up f retail sale
5 0 68 34 34
91011 Ginger : Neither crushed nor ground 3 13 48 41 28
330290Mixtures of odoriferous subst f use as raw materials in industry,nes
4 11 38 186 27
330210Mixtures of odoriferous substances for the food or drink industries
3 2 28 36 26
140490 Vegetable products nes 4.333* 2 26 29 24
190190Malt extract&food prep of Ch 19 <50% cocoa&hd 0401 to 0404 < 10% cocoa
5 3 21 83 18
530310Jute and other textile bast fibres, raw or retted
5 0 39 17 17
090411Pepper of the genus Piper,ex cubeb pepper,neither crushd nor ground
3.29* 0 15 117 15
081090 Fruits, fresh nes 5 0 10 71 10
560500Metallisd yarn,beg textile yarn combind w metal thread,strip/powder
5 2 17 12 10
300390Medicaments nes, formulated, in bulk
3 0 10 265 10
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
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TOP 50 HIGH POTENTIAL INDIAN EXPORTS WITH MEIS SUBSIDY
HS Code
Product LabelMEIS
Reward
Pak 2014 Imports
from India
Pakistan 2014
World Imports
India 2014
World Exports
Trade Potential
090220Green tea (not fermented) in packages exceeding 3 kg
4* 0 9 11 9
080280 Areca nuts 3 0 91 8 8
90831Cardamoms : Neither crushed nor ground
3 2 9 58 7
950691Gymnasium or athletics articles and equipment
5 0 7 8 7
170490Sugar confectionery nes (includg white chocolate),not containg cocoa
3 0 6 81 6
080111 Coconuts, dessicated 5 0 11 6 6
570490Carpets of felt of textile materials, nes
5 0 6 68 6
080810 Apples, fresh 5 0 7 6 6
121190Plants &pts of plants(incl sed&fruit) usd in pharm,perf,insect etc nes
5 5 11 240 6
030339Flatfish nes, frozen, excluding heading No 03.04, livers and roes
5 0 11 5 5
81340 Fruits, dried nes 5 1 6 12 5
170290 Sugar nes, including invert sugar 5 0 7 5 5
950699Articles&equip for sports&outdoor games nes&swimmg&paddlg pools
5 1 5 107 4
090921Seeds of coriander : Neither crushed nor ground
3 1 5 56 4
210111Coffee extracts, essences, concentrates
5 0 4 283 4
290611 Menthol 3 0 4 213 4
570330Carpets of other man-made textile materials, tufted
5 0 4 89 4
110510 Potato flour and meal 5 0 4 10 4
711719Imitation jewellery nes of base metal whether o not platd w prec metal
5 1 4 114 4
590700Textile fab impreg,ctd,cov nes;paintd canvas (e.g.threatrical scenery)
5 0 4 3 3
080119 Coconuts, excluding dessicated 5 0 3 58 3
030499Frozen fish meat whether or not minced (excl. swordfish, toothfis
5 0 3 126 3
200410Potatoes prepard or preservd oth than by vinegar or acetic acid,frozen
5 2 5 5 3
090710Cloves, whole fruit, cloves and stems, neither crushed nor ground
3 0 3 5 3
570242Carpets of man-made textile mat,of woven pile construction,made up,nes
5 0 3 86 3
330119 Essential oils of citrus fruits, nes 3 0 3 6 3
130219 Vegetable saps and extracts nes 3 0 3 262 3
070320 Garlic, fresh or chilled 3 5 45 8 3
420229Handbags, of vulcanised fibre or of paperboard
5 0 3 13 3
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
26
TOP 50 HIGH POTENTIAL INDIAN EXPORTS WITH MEIS SUBSIDY
HS Code
Product LabelMEIS
Reward
Pak 2014 Imports
from India
Pakistan 2014
World Imports
India 2014
World Exports
Trade Potential
190590Communion wafers,empty cachets f pharm use&sim prod&bakers' wares nes
5 0 3 109 3
940350 Bedroom furniture, wooden, nes 5 0 3 4 3
630790Made up articles, of textile materials, nes, including dress patterns
5 0 3 339 3
570110Carpets of wool or fine animal hair, knotted
5 0 3 249 3
180690Chocolate and other food preparations containing cocoa nes
3 0 3 74 2
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
27
5.2 MEIS HIGH POTENTIAL PRODUCTS AT 6-DIGIT AND 8-DIGIT HS CODE LEVEL
This section considers the top 6-digit HS code level items in greater detail, offering information about the product’s import and export trends as well as identifying the 8-digit products under it that are to receive MEIS benefits. At the 8-digit level no data is available for Pakistan’s imports from the world for the year 2014. The 6-digit level data provided in all cases is for the year 2014, whereas the 8-digit data in all cases is for the year 2013 since Pakistan’s world import numbers are available at this level for certain products, allowing calculation of 2013 trade potential for those products at the more accurate 8-digit level.
5.2.1 BLACK TEA
USD Millions
HS Code
Product LabelAverage
MEIS Reward
Pakistan 2014
World Imports
India 2014
World Exports
Pak 2014 Imports
from India
Trade Potential
090240Black tea (fermented) & partly fermented tea in packages exceedg 3 kg
3.86 319 588 24 295
HS 090240 has a trade potential of USD 295 million and enjoys an average MEIS reward of 3.86% on FOB value. The graph shows that both exports and imports of the product by India and Pakistan respectively have seen net growth during the period 2004-2014. There are 7 HS 090240 items in the MEIS list.
USD Thousands
HS Code Product Label MEISPak 2013
World Imports
India 2013
World Exports
Pak 2013 Imports
from India
Trade Potential
09024010 Tea Black In Pckt>3Kg But<= 20 Kg 5 216 3,334 0 190
09024020 Tea Black,Leaf In Bulk 3 _ 409,819 19,717 _
09024030 Tea Black,Dust In Bulk 3 _ 36,551 1,208 _
09024040 Tea Bags 5 _ 63,305 2 _
09024050 Tea Black (E.G Ball,Bricks,Tblts,Etc) 5 _ 5 0 _
09024060 Tea Black Waste 3 _ 954 0 _
09024090 Other Black Tea 3 340,779 63,882 1,678 82,873
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
USD
Mill
ions
Black Tea (HS 090240)
Pak Imports from India
India World Exports
Pakistan World Imports
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
28
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
USD
Mill
ions
Soya Bean (HS 230400)
Pak Imports from India
India World Exports
Pakistan World Imports
5.2.2 SOYA BEAN PRODUCTS
USD Millions
HS Code
Product LabelAverage
MEIS Reward
Pakistan 2014
World Imports
India 2014
World Exports
Pak 2014 Imports
from India
Trade Potential
230400Soya-bean oil-cake&oth solid residues,whether or not ground or pellet
5 479 1,172 194 285
HS 230400 has a trade potential of USD 285 million and faces average MEIS rewards of 5%. India exported upwards of USD 1 billion of HS 230400 in 2014, while Pakistan’s imports of the product have been steadily rising since 2004. It enjoys an average MEIS reward of 5% on FOB value. There are 4 HS 230400 items in the MEIS list.
USD Thousands
HS Code Product Label MEISPak 2013
World Imports
India 2014
World Exports
Pak 2014 Imports
from India
23040010 Oil cake and oil cake meal of soyabean 5 _ 61,504 152
23040020 Oil cake of soyabean, solvent extracted 5 _ 35,006 0
23040030 Meal of soyabean, solvent extracted (defatted) 5 _ 974,802 185,278
23040090 Other 5 _ 109,412 1,430
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
29
5.2.3 FOOD PREPARATIONS
USD Millions
HS Code
Product LabelAverage
MEIS Reward
Pakistan 2014
World Imports
India 2014
World Exports
Pak 2014 Imports
from India
Trade Potential
210690 Food preparations nes 3 71 170 1 70
HS 210690 has a trade potential of USD 70 million and enjoys an average MEIS reward of 3% on FOB value. India reported USD 170 million worth of HS 210690 exports in 2014 whereas Pakistan had sizeable imports worth USD 71 million of the same. Both exports and imports by the respective countries have shown steady growth since 2004. There are 11 HS 210690 items on the MEIS list.
USD Thousands
HS Code Product Label MEISPak 2013
World Imports
India 2013
World Exports
Pak 2013 Imports
from India
Trade Potential
21069011 Soft Drink -Sharbat 3 _ 983 0 _
21069019 Soft Drink - Other Than Sharbat 3 _ 22921 60 _
21069020 Syrups and squashes 3 355 7362 20 335
21069040Sugr-Syrp Contng Flavrng/Colrng Mtrl Nes
3 3931 2144 0 3931
21069050Compnd Prpns For Mkng Bevergs(Non-Alcohlc)
3 _ 258 32 _
21069060 Food Flavouring Material 3 2 1893 0 2
21069070 Churna For Pan 3 _ 178 0 _
21069080 Custard Powder 3 _ 303 0 _
21069091 Other Diabetic Foods 3 _ 1100 0 _
21069092Other Sterilised Or Pasturised Millstone
3 _ 401 0 _
21069099 Other Food Preparation Nes 3 _ 118091 470 _
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
USD
Mill
ions
Food Preparations (HS 210690)
Pak Imports from India
India World Exports
Pakistan World Imports
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
USD
Mill
ions
Tricycyles, scooters etc (HS 950300)
Pak Imports from India
India World Exports
Pakistan World Imports
5.2.4 TOYS
USD Millions
HS Code
Product LabelAverage
MEIS Reward
Pakistan 2014
World Imports
India 2014
World Exports
Pak 2014 Imports
from India
Trade Potential
950300Tricycles, scooters, pedal cars and similar wheeled toys; dolls'' carr
5 50 165 0 50
HS 950300 exhibits trade potential of USD 37 million and faces an average MEIS reward of 5%. Exports of the item by India and imports of the item by Pakistan have grown to similar values over the period considered.
USD Thousands
HS Code Product Label MEISPak 2013
World Imports
India 2013
World Exports
Pak 2013 Imports
from India
Trade Potential
95030010 Dolls Of Wood 5 1926 1252 0 1926
95030090 Other 5 27269 23302 0 23302
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
31
5.2.5 CEREAL PREPARATIONS
USD Millions
HS Code
Product LabelAverage
MEIS Reward
Pakistan 2014
World Imports
India 2014
World Exports
Pak 2014 Imports
from India
Trade Potential
Trade Potential
190110
Prep of cereals,flour,starch/milk f infant use,put up f retail sale
5 68 34 0 34 68
HS 190110 shows a trade potential of USD 34 million and enjoys an average MEIS reward of 5% on FOB value. Pakistan reports greater imports of this item than India’s world exports, but both have shown growth since 2004. There are 2 HS 190110 items in the MEIS list.
USD Thousands
HS Code Product Label MEISPak 2014
World Imports
India 2014
World Exports
Pak 2014 Imports
from India
19011010 Malted Milk (Including Powder) 5 _ 2771 245
19011090 Other Food Prpns Fr Infnt Use Excl Malted Milk 5 _ 31553 135
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
USD
Mill
ions
Prep of cereals (HS190110)
Pak Imports from India
India World Exports
Pakistan World Imports
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
32
5.2.6 GINGER
USD Millions
HS Code
Product LabelAverage
MEIS Reward
Pakistan 2014
World Imports
India 2014
World Exports
Pak 2014 Imports
from India
Trade Potential
091011 Ginger : Neither crushed nor ground 3 48 41 13 28
HS 091011 has a trade potential worth USD 28 million and faces a MEIS benefit of 3% on FOB value. Exports and imports of the product by India and Pakistan respectively witnessed a sharp rise after 2010, as did Indian imports of the item to Pakistan. There are 4 HS 091011 items in the MEIS list.
USD Thousands
HS Code Product Label MEISPak 2014
World Imports
India 2014 World
Exports
Pak 2014 Imports
from India
9101110 Fresh 3 _ 9423 2119
9101120 Dried, Unbleached 3 _ 6766 0
9101130 Dried, Bleached 3 _ 5887 65
9101190Other Ginger; Neither Crushed Nor Ground
3 _ 17986 8776
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
USD
Mill
ions
Ginger (HS 091011)
Pak Imports from India
India World Exports
Pakistan World Imports
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
33
5.2.7 MIXTURES OF ODORIFEROUS SUBSTANCES (RAW MATERIALS)
USD Millions
HS Code
Product LabelAverage
MEIS Reward
Pakistan 2014
World Imports
India 2014
World Exports
Pak 2014 Imports
from India
Trade Potential
330290Mixtures of odoriferous subst f use as raw materials in industry,nes
3.67* 38 186 11 27
HS 330290 has trade potential of USD 27 million and enjoys an average MEIS benefit of 3.67%. India is a major exporter of the item, reporting USD 186 million worth of exports in 2014, and Pakistan has seen a rise in imports of the product over the past few years, reporting 2014 imports of USD 38 million.
USD Thousands
HS Code Product Label MEISPak 2014
World Imports
India 2014 World
Exports
Pak 2014 Imports
from India
33029012 Synthetic Essential Oils 3 _ 2504 26
33029019Other Mxtr Of Aromatic Chemicals Andessn Oil
3 _ 13846 27
33029020 Aleuritic Acid 5 _ 10190 0
0
50
100
150
200
250
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
USD
Mill
ions
Mixtrues of odoriferous substances for use as raw materials (HS 330290)
Pak Imports from India
India World Exports
Pakistan World Imports
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
34
5.2.8 MIXTURES OF ODORIFEROUS SUBSTANCES (FOOD, DRINK)
USD Millions
HS Code
Product LabelAverage
MEIS Reward
Pakistan 2014
World Imports
India 2014
World Exports
Pak 2014 Imports
from India
Trade Potential
330210Mixtures of odoriferous substances for the food or drink industries
3 28 36 2 26
HS 330210 exhibits a trade potential of USD 26 million and faces an MEIS reward of 3%. Both exports and imports of the product by India and Pakistan respectively have risen steadily over the past decade. There is one HS 330210 item in the MEIS list.
USD Thousands
HS Code Product Label MEISPak 2013
World Imports
India 2013
World Exports
Pak 2013 Imports
from India
Trade Potential
33021090 Other flavors for drink indust 3 15946 12695 134 12561
0
50
100
150
200
250
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
USD
Mill
ions
Mixtrues of odoriferous substances for use as raw materials (HS 330290)
Pak Imports from India
India World Exports
Pakistan World Imports
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
35
5.2.9 MALT
USD Millions
HS Code
Product LabelAverage
MEIS Reward
Pakistan 2014
World Imports
India 2014
World Exports
Pak 2014 Imports
from India
Trade Potential
190190Malt extract&food prep of Ch 19 <50% cocoa&hd 0401 to 0404 < 10% cocoa
5 21 83 3 18
HS 190190 shows a trade potential of USD 18 million and an average MEIS reward of 5% on FOB value. Pakistan imports of the item have fluctuated over the past decade but have shown net growth whereas India’s exports grew steadily until 2012 after which they took a slight dip. There are 2 HS 190190 items on the MEIS list.
USD Thousands
HS Code Product Label MEISPak 2013
World Imports
India 2013 World
Exports
Pak 2013 Imports
from India
19019010 Malt extract 5 1336 10667 465
19019090 Other food preparations 5 18210 75562 3253
0102030405060708090
100
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
USD
Mill
ions
Malt Extract (HS 190190)
Pak Imports from India
India World Exports
Pakistan World Imports
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
36
5.2.10 JUTE
USD Millions
HS Code
Product LabelAverage
MEIS Reward
Pakistan 2014
World Imports
India 2014
World Exports
Pak 2014 Imports
from India
Trade Potential
530310Jute and other textile bast fibres, raw or retted
5 39 17 0 17
HS 530310 has a trade potential of USD 17 million and faces an average MEIS reward of 5%. Pakistan’s imports of the item grew to around USD 70 million in 2011 before dropping to USD 40 million in 2014, whereas India reported exports of USD 17 million in 2014. There is one HS 530310 item on the MEIS list.
USD Thousands
HS Code Product LabelMEIS
Reward
Pakistan 2014
World Imports
India 2014
World Exports
Pak 2014 Imports
from India
Trade Potential
53031010 Jute, Raw Or Retted 5 6537 19546 435 6102
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
USD
Mill
ions
Jute (HS 530310)
Pak Imports from India
India World Exports
Pakistan World Imports
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
37
5.2.11 PEPPER
USD Millions
HS Code
Product LabelAverage
MEIS Reward
Pakistan 2014
World Imports
India 2014
World Exports
Pak 2014 Imports
from India
Trade Potential
090411Pepper of the genus Piper,ex cubeb pepper, neither crushd nor ground
3.29* 15 117 0 15
HS 090411 showsa trade potential of USD 15 million and faces an average MEIS reward of 3.29%. Pakistan has reported steady imports of around USD 15 million over the past decade whereas Indian exports of the product have shown net growth, reaching USD 117 million in 2014. There are 7 HS 090411 items on the MEIS list.
USD Thousands
HS Code Product Label MEISPak 2013
World Imports
India 2013 World
Exports
Pak 2013 Imports
from India
Trade Potential
9041110 Pepper Long 5 10340 1332 39 1293
9041120 Light Black Pepper 3 255 734 0 255
9041140 Black Pepper Ungarbled 3 _ 4279 129 _
9041150 Dehydrated Green Pepper 3 _ 9887 0 _
9041160 Pepper Pinheads 3 _ 1984 0 _
9041170 Freez Dried Green Pepper 3 _ 2023 0 _
9041180 Frozen Pepper 3 _ 83 0 _
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
USD
Mill
ions
Pepper (HS 090411)
Pak Imports from India
India World Exports
Pakistan World Imports
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
38
5.2.12 TOMATOES
USD Millions
HS Code
Product LabelAverage
MEIS Reward
Pakistan 2014
World Imports
India 2014
World Exports
Pak 2014 Imports
from India
Trade Potential
070200 Tomatoes, fresh or chilled 3 131 145 124 7
HS 070200 shows trade potential of USD 16 million and enjoys a MEIS reward of 3%. India has been Pakistan’s major source of tomato imports for the past few years, with Indian imports of the vegetable to Pakistan rising above USD 120 million in 2013. It should be noted that the Pakistan world imports and Indian imports numbers are inconsistent between 2005 and 2008. There is one HS 070200 item on the MEIS list.
USD Thousands
HS Code Product Label MEISPak 2013
World Imports
India 2013 World
Exports
Pak 2013 Imports
from India
Trade Potential
7020000 Tomatoes Fresh Or Chilled 3 131356 144991 124162 7194
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
USD
Mill
ions
Tomatoes (HS 070200)
Pak Imports from India
Pakistan World Imports
Indian World Exports
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
39
5.2.13 TEXTILE ITEMS
The MEIS scheme offers subsidies on 176 textile items at the 8-digit level in HS Codes 50 to 65. At the 6-digit level these collapse into 70 items with a collective trade potential of USD 76 million. Listed below are the ten 6-digit items with the highest trade potential that will receive rewards under MEIS. All textile items at the 8-digit level face an MEIS reward of 5% on FOB value.
USD Millions
HS Code
Product LabelMEIS
Reward
Pakistan2014
Worlds Imports
India2014
Worlds Exports
Pak2014
Imports from India
Trade Potential
530310Jute and other textile bast fibres, raw or retted
5 39 17 0 17
500790 Woven fabrics of silk, nes 5 20 11 0 11
560500Metallisd yarn,beg textile yarn combind w metal thread,strip/powder
5 17 12 2 10
570490Carpets of felt of textile materials, nes
5 6 68 0 6
570330Carpets of other man-made textile materials, tufted
5 4 89 0 4
590700Textile fab impreg,ctd,cov nes;paintd canvas (e.g.threatrical scenery)
5 4 3 0 3
570242Carpets of man-made textile mat,of woven pile construction,made up,nes
5 3 86 0 3
630790Made up articles, of textile materials, nes, including dress patterns
5 3 339 0 3
570110Carpets of wool or fine animal hair, knotted
5 3 249 0 3
530500Coconut, abaca Manila hemp or Musa textilis Nee, ramie, agave and othe
5 2 157 0 2
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
40
6.0 RECOMMENDATIONS6.1 Removing India’s NTBs
Both sides need to work to reduce their non-tariff barriers. However, as already argued, India should take the initiative in easing its NTBs first, especially since its NTBs are considered very difficult to overcome the world over. While it is true that all its trading partners face these NTBs (though Pakistan arguably faces them to a greater extent), given Pakistan and India’s unusually strained relations special concessions must be made by both sides in order to build the kind of goodwill that is imperative for easing the transition to normalized trade relations. Some NTBs such as visa and banking issues can be rectified fairly easily, whereas others (technical barriers to trade) will likely require sustained cooperation on both sides to make less unyielding.
Custom Procedures and Technical Barriers to Trade
Work should be done to make custom procedures more efficient and transparent. Both governments should invest in educating their exporters and custom officials about the other country’s regulations and requirements. The Pakistani government in particular needs to offer assistance to exporters as they negotiate the complex standards and requirements imposed by India. By the same token, India must work to improve the efficiency of its licensing and certification processes to avoid delays. Indian officials should be responsive to grievances voiced by Pakistani exporters, as should Pakistani officials when it comes to complaints from Indian businessman. India should also do more to assist Pakistan in establishing internationally accredited testing facilities since this would be a great stride towards making Pakistan-India trade more efficient. Once again, this may be seen as a demand for “special treatment” by Pakistan, but, as already argued, special treatment is exactly what is required by both sides given the facts of their relationship. If Pakistan is to open its doors to an economic giant like India, it should be able to expect special assistance on matters such as these, especially in light of its institutional weaknesses. Steps should also be taken towards harmonizing HS codes at levels higher than the 6-digit level between India and Pakistan. The fact that product classifications differ on both sides creates confusion and grants undue power to custom officials in terms of having final say on the classification of trade items.
Pakistan must work to improve its testing facilities and compliance with international standards if it hopes to hold its own in trade with India. While there has been some progress on this issue, much more must be done before NDMA is granted to India.
Banking
The previously initiated process of opening either country’s banks in the other should be completed. This is a relatively straightforward issue and has already seen substantial progress, though decisive action is yet to be taken. Payment delays should not be an impediment to trade, and so banking instruments must be developed that can keep pace with the short transaction times for goods moving via land routes. Current facilities allow payment receipts within 7 days whereas goods can be transported within a few hours. This is an easier fix than the issue of custom procedures and technical barriers to trade and therefore should be resolved expeditiously.
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
41
Visa regime
While important steps have been taken by India to liberalize its visa regime for Pakistan, this study points out serious issues involving Indian visas for Pakistani businessmen that remain unaddressed. Again, grievances voiced by Pakistani businessmen should be taken seriously, since while on paper business visa terms now allow for greater flexibility, applicants reportedly face difficulty in actually acquiring Indian visas. Police reporting should be replaced with an alternative measure and the Indian visa regime for Pakistan should be made consistent with its regime for other countries. One of the major impediments to Pakistan-India trade is a lack of effective communication between the two country’s business communities. A fully liberal visa regime on both sides would help to establish the links needed for expanding trade.
6.2 Protecting local industries by strengthening the NTC
NDMA will mean that Pakistan will no longer be able to rely on tariff measures to protect certain local industries. Indian products are cheaper due to heavy subsidies and economies of scale. In certain cases the level of competition they will offer local industries will be devastating. Therefore, Pakistan must work to strengthen those industries that stand to face the most competition from India through countervailing and anti-dumping duties imposed in the light of NTC investigations. This will require building institutional capacity within the NTC. In order to fulfil its role the NTC must possess the resources to keep track of and adequately respond to Indian policy changes such as MEIS.
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
42
SECTION II :ANALYSIS OF
HIGH POTENTIAL PAKISTANI EXPORTS
TO INDIA
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
44
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
45
7.0 ANALYSIS OF HIGH POTENTIAL PAKISTANI EXPORTS TO INDIA
The following tables provide a quick overview of the analysis of Pakistan’s high potential exports to India.
TRADE POTENTIAL 90% of Pakistan’s total trade potential with India lies within the 438 analysed items at 6-digit HS code level.
CAGRAbout 50% of these 438 items have shown healthy growth in global Pakistani exports and global Indian imports while showing negative, low or zero growth in Pakistani exports to India.
BILATERAL RCA12% of these 438 items are exported at a “disproportionate” level to India, meaning the Indian market is a potentially important export destination for these items.
SENSITIVE LIST
32% of these 438 items are on India’s sensitive list for Pakistan, and they contain 28% of the total trade potential in the 438 items, suggesting that the sensitive list items are not disproportionately promising in terms of trade potential.
Sectors with Major Trade Potential from Analysed Products
SectorCurrent Exports
Total Trade Potential
Major Items Metrics Overview
Textile and Footwear
USD 57 million in 146 items
USD 852 million in 146 items
HS 6109 (T-shirts, singlets, knitted or crocheted), HS 6203 (Men’s suits, jackets, trousers), HS 6403 (Footwear, upper of leather)
35% high CAGR items,10% items with bilateral RCA>1, 49% items on India’s sensitive list
High growth in world exports by Pakistan and world imports by India without growth in Pak-India trade in many products, few disproportionately high Pak exports to India, items heavily protected by India
Agricultural Products
USD 81 million in 53 items
USD 360 million in 53 items
HS 120740 (sesamum seeds), HS 080410 (dates)
49% high CAGR items,15% items with bilateral RCA>1, 32% items on India’s sensitive list
High growth in world exports by Pakistan and world imports by India without growth in Pak-India trade in many products, few disproportionately high Pak exports to India, items moderately protected by India
PlasticsUSD 14 million in 25 items
USD 170 million in 24 items
HS 3915 (Waste and scrap of plastics) , HS 3920 (Other plates, sheets, films etc. of plastic), HS 3924 (Tableware, kitchenware, toiletry articles of plastic)
29% high CAGR items,21% items with bilateral RCA>1, 75% items on India’s sensitive list
High growth in world exports by Pakistan and world imports by India without growth in Pak-India trade in some products, few disproportionately high Pak exports to India, items heavily protected by India
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
46
MachineryUSD 0.25 million in 31 items
USD 207 million in 31 items
HS 8411 (Turbo-jets, turbo propellers and other gas turbines), HS 8414 (air, vacuum pump)
77% high CAGR items, 10% items with bilateral RCA>1, 6% items on India’s sensitive list
High growth in world exports by Pakistan and world imports by India without growth in Pak-India trade in most products, few disproportionately high Pak exports to India, low protection of items by India
Pharmaceutical Products
USD 0.15 million in 10 items
USD 170 million in 10 items
HS 3003 (Medicament mixtures), HS 3004 (Medicament Mixtures)
70% high CAGR items, no items with bilateral RCA>1, 30% items on India’s sensitive list
High growth in world exports by Pakistan and world imports by India without growth in Pak-India trade in most products, some disproportionately high Pak exports to India, items moderately protected by India
The analysis detailed in the methodology section was carried out on Pakistani exports to India with trade potential equal to or in excess of USD 1 million. This limits this analysis to export items that command at minimum a market of USD 1 million in India and minimum Pakistani export earnings of USD 1 million as of 2014.
Pakistani exports to India within the 438 items that met the above criterion amounted to USD 233 million in 2014, out of total Pakistani exports to India of USD 392 million in the same year. Therefore, the 438 items represent 60% of total Pakistani exports to India. India’s imports within these items amounts to USD 191.5 billion, out of a total import bill of USD 459 billion in 2014.
Sectors with large potential for trade with India include textile and footwear, agricultural products, plastics and machinery. A closer look at these sectors follows this section of the study.
Trade Potential
The 438 Pakistani products with trade potential to India exceeding USD 1 million represented a total trade potential of USD 3.4 billion in 2014. The total trade potential to India for all 5541 Pakistani items with available data was USD 3.8 billion in 2014. Therefore the products taken into consideration for this analysis account for 90% of total Pakistani trade potential to India. So 8% of Pakistani export items at the 6-digit level accounted for 90% of total trade potential to India in 2014.33
33It should be kept in mind that trade potential only gives us information based on how things already are, and more specifically the extent to which trade can be extended with a particular country given current production. Therefore, Pakistan may have great untapped potential for world exports in product X, but due to factors such as wrongheaded government policies and insufficient support to producers the item is under-produced and very little export takes place. By the same token, India may have a thriving market for the high quality X Pakistan has the resources to provide, but that market is currently dominated by inferior domestic industries protected by heavy subsidies. Product X will not display “high trade potential”, where “trade potential” is defined the way it is in the methodology, even though it deserves attention. Therefore by measuring high trade potential we consider products whose “potential” has already been realized with the rest of the world, and so its lack of realization with a particular country (India in this case) can be seen as an opportunity to expand trade.
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
47
CAGR
Out of these 438 items, 207 can be considered high potential CAGR items. That is to say, 207 items (47% of analysed items) witnessed healthy growth during the period 2004-2014 in PakistaniexportsoftheitemandIndianimportsoftheitem,butsawnegative,zero,orvery low growth in Pakistani exports to India of the item during the same period. This means that healthy trends are already in place- they must now be effectively harnessed to boost Pakistan-India trade. It is also instructive to note trends in total exports and imports in general. USD 1.4 billion of the trade potential in the 438 items lies within these high potential CAGR products. Therefore 41% of trade potential within the analysed items lies within products that have experienced favourable trends in their exports and imports by Pakistan respectively, but have failed to capitalize on these trends where Pakistan-India trade is concerned.
Only 4 high potential CAGR items exhibit a bilateral RCA> 1. These items deserve special attention since they have positive export and import trends and despite having a negative Pakistan-India export trend India is still a disproportionately important export destination for the relevant Pakistani products as compared to the rest of the world. They are listed below.
High potential CAGR products are highlighted in red in this study.
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
48
Paki
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Tr
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PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
49
Bilateral RCA
Only52itemsoutofthe438exhibitabilateralRCAgreaterthan1.However,outofthetotal5541Pakistaniexportitemsatthe6-digitlevel,only200showabilateralrevealedcomparativeadvantagewithIndia.Furthermore,thesemere52itemsexhibitacollectivetrade potential of USD 790 million.
It is therefore the case that while only a few items are exported at disproportionately high levels to India as compared to the Pakistani exports to the rest of the world, many of them can draw on large export production by Pakistan and rely on strong demand from India. It should be noted that bilateral RCA> 1 on its own does not mean that India is the largest or even one of the largest markets for Pakistani exports in absolute terms for the relevant item. What bilateral RCA>1 tells us instead is that as things stand, product X’s percentage share of our export revenue from India exceeds its percentage share of export revenue from the world. Intuitively this suggests that India may be an important market for product X, and therefore these products deserve attention. Furthermore, bilateral RCA does not tell us the extent to which trade can be extended with the relevant country. TakingourtradepotentialfiguresintoconsiderationintandemwithbilateralRCA,however,tellsusthatthereissignificantroom for growth within items that already dominate our export basket to India. As already noted, 4 of the 52 bilateral RCA>1 items exhibit high potential CAGR values.
Sensitive List items
140 items out of the 438 analysed are on India’s sensitive list for Pakistan. USD 961 million worth of trade potential lies within these 140 items- so 28% of the trade potential lies within the 32% of the items out of the 438 that are on the sensitive list. This suggests that the sensitive list items considered are not disproportionately promising in terms of trade potential overall- on average they represent the same amount of trade potential as the non-sensitive list items considered.
Out of the 140 sensitive list items 62 exhibit high potential CAGR values- so 44% of the sensitive list items considered show high potential CAGR values, whereas 46% of the total 438 items show high potential CAGR values. This again suggests that the sensitive list items do not have a disproportionate number of high potential CAGR items among them. Inotherwords,positivetrends in exports by Pakistan and imports by India are not harnessed in sensitive list items and non-sensitive list items to about the same extent.
12 items out of the 140 sensitive list items show bilateral RCAs>1. Therefore 9% of sensitive list items exhibit greater than unity bilateral RCA values whereas 12% of the total 438 items considered exhibit the same. So sensitive list items are a little less disproportionately important to Pakistan’s export basket to India as compared to non-sensitive list items. This suggests that sensitive list items are also exported to India to a disproportionate extent at about the same rate as non-sensitive list items.
The fact that CAGR, trade potential and bilateral RCA metrics are about the same across sensitive and non-sensitive items suggests that sensitive items do not necessarily represent opportunities for trade with India that are appreciably more favourable than high potential non-sensitive list items.
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
50
7.1 TOP 100 HIGH POTENTIAL PAKISTANI EXPORTS TO INDIA
• Trade potential within the top 100 high potential items amounts to USD 2.6 billion out of a total trade potential at the 6-digit level for all 5541 items of USD 3.8 billion. So 70% of the total trade potential lies in these 100 items.
• 47 items exhibit high potential CAGR values with total trade potential of USD 1.07 billion.
• 15 items exhibit bilateral RCA values > 1 with total trade potential of USD 690 million.
• 31 items are on India’s sensitive list for Pakistan with total trade potential of 699 million.
• China is the major supplier to India for the highest number of products (38), followed by USA (9) and Bangladesh (9).
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
51
TOP
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PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
52
TOP
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2543
.19
14.6
8%
34.0
6%
27.0
4%0
.09
Y10
%5%
15%
Ital
y12
2.0
9
84
1451
Fan
s: t
able
,roo
f et
c w
a
self
-con
t el
ec m
tr o
f an
ou
tpu
t n
t ex
cdg
125W
0.0
071
.54
38.5
638
.56
0%
18.9
0%
11.8
8%
0.0
0Y
9%
19%
28%
Ch
ina
63.
89
2917
36Te
reph
thal
ic a
cid
and
its
salt
s0
.00
978
.08
36.5
636
.56
*36
.14%
47.7
5%10
.90
%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
Kore
a6
69
.03
390
319
Poly
styr
ene
nes
0.1
934
.83
52.2
534
.63
42.7
5%21
.52%
20.8
5%0
.23
N5%
18%
23%
Sin
gapo
re16
.31
64
039
9Fo
otw
ear,
ou
ter
sole
s of
ru
bber
/pla
stic
s u
pper
s of
leat
her
, nes
0.0
132
.15
77.5
432
.14
32.6
4%35
.49
%25
.72%
0.0
1Y
10%
19%
29%
Ch
ina
26.2
7
48
1159
Pape
r an
d pa
perb
oard
, su
rfac
e-co
lou
red,
su
rfac
e-de
cora
ted
or
prin
ted,
0.0
031
.00
42.0
131
.00
0%
22.0
8%
71.4
0%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%C
hin
a5.
98
630
419
Beds
prea
ds o
f te
xtile
m
ater
ials
, nes
, not
kn
itte
d or
cro
chet
ed0
.00
77.2
328
.62
28.6
20
%50
.63%
17.6
3%0
.00
Y10
%19
%29
%C
hin
a33
.68
610
910
T-sh
irts
, sin
glet
s an
d ot
her
ves
ts, o
f co
tton
, kn
itte
d0
.01
24.9
419
5.41
24.9
3-1
5.23
%38
.80
%3.
17%
0.0
0Y
10%
14%
24%
Ban
glad
esh
6.2
7
2523
29Po
rtla
nd
cem
ent
nes
35.9
159
.62
502.
1423
.71
23.4
9%
67.
30%
33.1
4%4.
51N
5%4%
9%
Paki
stan
35.9
1
84
118
2G
as t
urb
ines
nes
of
a po
wer
exc
eedi
ng
500
0
KW
0.0
08
4.4
523
.19
23.1
90
%13
.22%
42.0
8%
0.0
0N
5%19
%24
%U
K12
.99
3915
90
Plas
tics
was
te a
nd
scra
p n
es0
.31
103.
7023
.14
22.8
3_*
12.5
8%
39.0
2%0
.84
Y8
%14
%21
%G
erm
any
17.2
1
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
53
630
790
Mad
e u
p ar
ticl
es, o
f te
xtile
mat
eria
ls, n
es,
incl
udi
ng
dres
s pa
tter
ns
0.0
022
.81
36.8
222
.81
-44.
69
%8
.42%
-3.9
0%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%U
AE
6.0
4
630
140
Blan
kets
(o/
t el
ectr
ic)
and
trav
ellin
g ru
gs, o
f sy
nth
etic
fibr
es0
.00
48
.92
22.2
522
.25
0%
56.1
1%48
.38
%0
.00
N10
%19
%29
%C
hin
a33
.78
300
439
Hor
mon
es n
es, n
ot
con
tain
ing
anti
biot
ics,
in
dos
age,
o/t
con
trac
epti
ve
0.0
073
.05
21.5
821
.58
0%
23.1
9%
44.3
6%
0.0
0N
10%
11%
21%
Swit
zerl
and
12.6
9
851
712
Tele
phon
es f
or c
ellu
lar
net
wor
ks m
obile
te
leph
ones
or
for
oth
er
wir
ele
0.0
07,
433
.81
19.8
219
.82
0%
18.7
8%
-14.
08
%0
.00
N5%
13%
18%
Ch
ina
4744
.9
320
810
Pain
ts&
varn
ish
es b
ased
on
pol
yest
ers,
disp
erse
d in
a n
on-a
queo
us
med
ium
0.0
031
.77
19.2
819
.28
0%
20.3
3%12
.81%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%G
erm
any
4.48
96
020
0
Wor
kd v
eg/m
iner
al
carv
g m
at&
art,
carv
d ar
t n
es;w
orkd
un
har
den
d ge
lati
n
0.0
321
.48
18.9
718
.94
-10
.50
%12
.62%
3.76
%0
.10
N5%
18%
23%
USA
10.7
9
5512
19
Wov
en
fabr
ics,
con
tain
g>/=
85%
of
pol
yest
er s
tapl
e fi
bres
,o/t
un
bl o
r bl
0.0
018
.75
27.4
318
.75
-25.
42%
13.1
8%
41.8
1%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
Ch
ina
12.1
4
7615
10
Tabl
e, k
itch
en o
r ot
her
h
ouse
hol
d ar
ticl
es a
nd
part
s th
ereo
f, a
nd
pot
scou
rers
an
d sc
ouri
n
0.0
118
.69
29.3
118
.69
_*_*
36.4
6%
0.0
1N
5%18
%23
%C
hin
a16
.75
610
99
0T-
shir
ts,s
ingl
ets
and
oth
er v
ests
,of
oth
er
text
ile m
ater
ials
,kn
itte
d0
.00
18.1
276
.09
18.1
214
.47%
35.1
5%36
.70
%0
.00
Y10
%14
%24
%C
hin
a5.
48
611
599
Hos
iery
nes
, of
oth
er
text
ile m
ater
ials
, kn
itte
d0
.00
17.9
057
.59
17.9
00
%52
.45%
16.6
1%0
.00
Y10
%14
%24
%C
hin
a12
.82
84
071
0A
ircr
aft
engi
nes
, spa
rk-
ign
itio
n r
ecip
roca
tin
g or
rot
ary
type
0.0
014
9.2
417
.68
17.6
80
%38
.59
%26
.96
%0
.00
N5%
19%
24%
USA
66
.52
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
54
TOP
100
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
PAK
ISTA
NI E
XPO
RTS
TO
IND
IA
Pro
du
ct
cod
ePr
od
uct
lab
elPa
k 20
14
Exp
ort
s to
Ind
ia
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Exp
ort
s
Pak
2014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Pak-
Ind
ia
CA
GR
Ind
ia
Imp
ort
C
AG
R
Pak
Exp
ort
C
AG
R
Bila
tera
l R
CA
Sen
siti
ve
list
Bas
ic
Tari
ffPa
ra
Tari
ffA
pp
lied
Ta
riff
Ind
ia's
M
ajo
r So
urc
e o
f Im
po
rts
Am
ou
nt
Imp
ort
ed
fro
m
Maj
or
Sou
rce
90
184
9In
stru
men
ts a
nd
appl
ian
ces,
use
d in
de
nta
l sci
ence
s, n
es2.
2444
.71
19.7
317
.49
36.9
0%
21.4
9%
11.1
3%7.
16N
5%13
%18
%C
hin
a6
.54
3920
62
Film
an
d sh
eet
etc,
n
on-c
ellu
lar
etc,
of
pol
yeth
ylen
e te
reph
thal
ates
0.1
74
9.4
117
.37
17.2
017
5.17
%37
.78
%11
5.6
1%0
.62
Y10
%19
%29
%Th
aila
nd
13.1
1
850
710
Lead
-aci
d el
ectr
ic
accu
mu
lato
rs o
f a
kin
d u
sd f
sta
rtg
pist
on
engi
nes
0.0
020
.03
16.7
316
.73
0%
9.8
2%42
.40
%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
Ban
glad
esh
5.58
030
289
Fres
h o
r ch
illed
fish
, n
.e.s
.0
.00
16.4
619
.98
16.4
60
%_*
_*0
.00
Y30
%1%
31Ba
ngl
ades
h10
.53
84
1510
Air
con
diti
onin
g m
ach
ines
win
dow
or
wal
l typ
es, s
elf-
con
tain
ed
0.0
04
01.
94
16.3
716
.37
0%
32.1
4%23
.47%
0.0
0N
5%19
%24
%Th
aila
nd
214.
24
80
410
Dat
es, f
resh
or
drie
d6
3.6
419
9.4
579
.98
16.3
310
.23%
17.7
4%11
.15%
50.1
3N
5%0
%5%
Paki
stan
63.
64
630
190
Blan
kets
(o/
t el
ectr
ic)
and
trav
ellin
g ru
gs,o
f ot
her
tex
tile
mat
eria
ls0
.00
21.5
316
.20
16.2
0_*
44.0
4%40
.33%
0.0
2N
5%18
%23
%C
hin
a13
.35
520
832
Plai
n w
eave
cot
ton
fa
bric
,>/=
85%
,>10
0g/
m=
to
200
g/m
=, d
yed
0.2
019
.74
15.4
015
.20
-0.9
1%3.
16%
54.2
4%0
.81
N5%
18%
23%
Ch
ina
14.6
3
170
49
0
Suga
r co
nfe
ctio
ner
y n
es (
incl
udg
wh
ite
choc
olat
e),n
ot c
onta
ing
coco
a
0.2
115
.27
48.6
115
.06
175.
81%
14.8
0%
21.4
7%0
.28
N5%
18%
23%
Ban
glad
esh
4.0
6
720
839
Hot
rol
l iro
n/s
teel
nes
, co
il >
60
0m
m x
<3m
m0
.00
322.
2215
.06
15.0
60
%19
.85%
_*0
.00
N15
%11
%26
%Ja
pan
165
84
119
9Pa
rts
of g
as t
urb
ines
n
es0
.00
199
.59
14.4
614
.46
0%
10.6
3%39
.10
%0
.00
N5%
19%
24%
USA
47.4
5
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
55
630
90
0W
orn
clo
thin
g an
d ot
her
wor
n a
rtic
les
0.3
812
2.27
13.5
813
.20
17.7
8%
6.1
9%
40.4
1%1.
78N
5%18
%23
%U
SA71
.08
870
89
9M
otor
veh
icle
par
ts n
es0
.09
1,6
87.
2713
.10
13.0
256
.65%
13.5
8%
1.29
%0
.43
N5%
18%
23%
Kore
a35
0.7
5
300
420
An
tibi
otic
s n
es, i
n
dosa
ge0
.00
24.7
012
.87
12.8
70
%13
.09
%25
.38
%0
.00
Y10
%11
%21
%Sw
itze
rlan
d6
6.7
3
84
1810
Com
bin
ed r
efri
gera
tor-
free
zers
, fitt
ed w
ith
se
para
te e
xter
nal
doo
rs0
.00
103.
94
12.4
512
.45
0%
43.7
1%26
.14%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%Th
aila
nd
29.9
8
84
149
0Pa
rts
of v
acu
um
pu
mps
, com
pres
sors
, fa
ns,
blo
wer
s, h
oods
0.0
04
05.
88
12.2
712
.27
0%
15.4
4%22
.24%
0.0
0N
5%19
%24
%C
hin
a8
6.6
9
3924
90
Hou
seh
old
and
toile
t ar
ticl
es n
es, o
f pl
asti
cs0
.01
21.0
212
.22
12.2
1-8
.12%
26.2
9%
7.6
0%
0.0
5Y
10%
19%
29%
Thai
lan
d2.
38
1211
90
Plan
ts &
pts
of p
lan
ts(i
ncl
se
d&fr
uit
) u
sd in
ph
arm
,per
f,in
sect
etc
n
es
1.8
46
8.5
014
.00
12.1
65.
53%
17.3
6%
20.6
1%8
.28
N5%
4%9
%N
eth
erla
nd
9.2
6
300
590
Dre
ssin
gs&
sim
ilar
arti
cles
,impr
eg o
r co
atd
or p
acka
gd f
or m
d u
se,n
es
0.0
015
.51
12.0
712
.07
0%
8.6
6%
28.1
0%
0.0
0N
5%11
%16
%U
SA5.
14
411
200
Leat
her
fu
rth
er
prep
ared
aft
er t
ann
ing
or c
rust
ing
"in
cl.
parc
hm
ent-
dr
2.4
714
.52
45.
3812
.06
40.7
1%14
.02%
7.54
%3.
42N
5%4%
9%
Eth
iopi
a5.
08
520
932
Twill
wea
ve c
otto
n
fabr
ics,
>/=
85%
, mor
e th
an 2
00
g/m
2, d
yed
1.43
13.4
516
8.0
612
.01
26.6
4%27
.43%
32.8
3%0
.54
N5%
18%
23%
Ch
ina
8.5
8
300
390
Med
icam
ents
nes
, fo
rmu
late
d, in
bu
lk0
.12
39.4
712
.09
11.9
714
5.24
%11
.02%
3.79
%0
.61
Y10
%7%
17%
Ger
man
y15
.39
620
333
Men
s/bo
ys ja
cket
s an
d bl
azer
s, o
f sy
nth
etic
fi
bres
, not
kn
itte
d0
.06
16.1
811
.84
11.7
974
.26
%6
4.28
%4.
95%
0.3
0Y
10%
14%
24%
Ch
ina
7.33
84
314
3
Part
s of
bor
ing
or
sin
kin
g m
ach
iner
y,
wh
eth
er o
r n
ot s
elf-
prop
elle
d
0.0
035
1.4
211
.77
11.7
7_*
14.0
5%-1
.85%
0.0
1N
5%19
%24
%U
SA16
7.7
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
56
TOP
100
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
PAK
ISTA
NI E
XPO
RTS
TO
IND
IA
Pro
du
ct
cod
ePr
od
uct
lab
elPa
k 20
14
Exp
ort
s to
Ind
ia
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Exp
ort
s
Pak
2014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Pak-
Ind
ia
CA
GR
Ind
ia
Imp
ort
C
AG
R
Pak
Exp
ort
C
AG
R
Bila
tera
l R
CA
Sen
siti
ve
list
Bas
ic
Tari
ffPa
ra
Tari
ffA
pp
lied
Ta
riff
Ind
ia's
M
ajo
r So
urc
e o
f Im
po
rts
Am
ou
nt
Imp
ort
ed
fro
m
Maj
or
Sou
rce
410
799
Leat
her
"in
cl.
parc
hm
ent-
dres
sed
leat
her
" of
th
e po
rtio
ns,
st
rips
or
s
0.1
76
2.8
911
.55
11.3
815
.01%
18.8
6%
4.71
%0
.91
N5%
4%9
%It
aly
15.9
5
3920
20Fi
lm a
nd
shee
t et
c,
non
-cel
lula
r et
c, o
f po
lym
ers
of p
ropy
len
e0
.00
71.3
211
.03
11.0
3*
38.4
4%14
.01%
21.6
6%
0.0
0Y
10%
19%
29%
Ger
man
y19
.47
3918
90
Floo
r, w
all a
nd
ceili
ng
cove
rin
gs e
tc, o
f pl
asti
cs n
es0
.00
14.0
110
.94
10.9
40
%26
.01%
55.7
7%0
.00
Y10
%19
%29
%C
hin
a8
.05
300
410
Pen
icill
ins
or
stre
ptom
ycin
s an
d th
eir
deri
vati
ves,
in d
osag
e0
.00
19.3
210
.90
10.9
00
%27
.40
%40
.33%
0.0
0Y
10%
7%17
%Sw
itze
rlan
d52
.39
94
04
90
Art
icle
s of
bed
din
g/fu
rnis
hin
g, n
es, s
tuff
ed
or in
tern
ally
fitt
ed0
.00
10.8
18
5.14
10.8
1-8
8.0
519
.30
%-6
.75%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%C
hin
a5.
49
190
219
Un
cook
ed p
asta
, not
st
uff
ed o
r ot
her
wis
e pr
epar
ed, n
es0
.05
10.7
411
.34
10.7
031
.49
%13
.54%
19.6
1%0
.26
N5%
11%
16%
Nep
al3.
75
030
49
9
Froz
en fi
sh m
eat
wh
eth
er o
r n
ot m
ince
d (e
xcl.
swor
dfish
, to
oth
fish
an
d
0.0
011
.32
10.4
210
.42
0%
60
.02%
91.
85%
0.0
0N
5%4%
9%
Vie
tnam
9.0
8
620
520
Men
s/bo
ys s
hir
ts, o
f co
tton
, not
kn
itte
d0
.05
37.2
410
.41
10.3
6_*
27.8
7%-1
6.1
1%0
.31
Y10
%11
%21
%Ba
ngl
ades
h24
.87
410
44
9
Hid
es a
nd
skin
s of
bo
vin
e "i
ncl
. bu
ffal
o"
or e
quin
e an
imal
s, in
th
e dr
0.0
013
3.14
10.2
310
.23
*-4
1.3%
11.2
3%-1
9.5
7%0
.00
N5%
4%9
%It
aly
12.6
7
3926
90
Art
icle
s of
pla
stic
s or
of
oth
er m
ater
ials
of
Nos
39
.01
to 3
9.1
4 n
es0
.00
677
.04
10.2
210
.22
*-4
7.59
%19
.07%
-3.1
2%0
.00
Y10
%19
%29
%C
hin
a16
6.0
8
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
57
630
510
Sack
s&ba
gs,f
or p
ackg
of
goo
ds,o
f ju
te o
r of
ot
her
tex
tile
bas
t fi
bres
0.0
051
.92
10.0
210
.02
-82.
59%
28.5
8%
20.6
6%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%Ba
ngl
ades
h31
84
7330
Part
s&ac
cess
orie
s of
au
tom
atic
da
ta p
roce
ssg
mac
hin
es&
un
its
ther
eof
0.0
01,
429
.22
10.0
110
.01
0%
3.0
9%
20.7
6%
0.0
0N
0%
17%
17%
Ch
ina
777.
86
610
510
Men
s/bo
ys s
hir
ts, o
f co
tton
, kn
itte
d0
.07
10.0
226
9.3
89
.96
-4.6
3%42
.08
%-4
.80
%0
.02
Y10
%14
%24
%C
hin
a2.
8
740
319
Refi
ned
cop
per
prod
uct
s, u
nw
rou
ght,
n
es2.
7252
.62
12.3
39
.61
64.
44%
3.0
7%15
6.5
0%
13.8
8N
5%18
%23
%Za
mbi
a76
.56
520
94
2D
enim
fab
rics
of
cott
on,>
/=8
5%, m
ore
than
20
0 g
/m2
10.8
420
.41
445
.68
9.5
66
6.8
1%-3
.90
%23
.60
%1.
53N
5%18
%23
%C
hin
a_
1516
20Ve
g fa
ts &
oils
&fr
acti
ons
hydr
ogen
atd,
inte
r/re
-es
teri
fid,
etc,
ref'd
/not
0.0
09
.54
115.
279
.54
0%
-13.
32%
8.3
6%
0.0
0N
8%
12%
20%
Mal
aysi
a7.
32
64
059
0Fo
otw
ear,
nes
0.0
04
8.1
59
.29
9.2
9-6
.70
%28
.23%
-0.8
9%
0.0
1Y
10%
19%
29%
Ch
ina
46.7
5
620
46
9W
omen
s/gi
rls
trou
sers
&
sh
orts
,of
oth
er t
exti
le
mat
eria
ls,n
ot k
nit
ted
0.0
09
.25
95.
399
.24
-24.
80
%56
.94%
68
.02%
0.0
0Y
10%
14%
24%
Ch
ina
3.0
7
420
222
Han
dbag
s w
ou
ter
surf
ace
of s
hee
tg o
f pl
asti
cs o
of
text
ile
mat
eria
ls
0.0
042
.79
8.9
48
.94
*-4
0.1
6%
45.7
2%51
.33%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%C
hin
a29
.53
611
020
Pullo
vers
, car
diga
ns
and
sim
ilar
arti
cles
of
cott
on, k
nit
ted
0.0
28
.88
39.4
68
.87
191.
55%
46.4
3%2.
80
%0
.03
Y10
%14
%24
%C
hin
a2.
11
68
159
9A
rtic
les
of s
ton
e or
of
oth
er m
iner
al
subs
tan
ces
nes
0.1
99
.00
9.6
88
.81
-0.1
6%
8.7
6%
-2.3
9%
1.24
N5%
13%
18%
Ch
ina
2.47
730
590
Tube
s &
pip
e, i
or s
, ri
vete
d or
sim
clo
sed,
ex
t di
a >
40
6.4
mm
, nes
0.0
09
.95
8.4
28
.42
0%
7.12
%16
.89
%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
Ch
ina
3.0
3
96
190
0
San
itar
y to
wel
s (p
ads)
an
d ta
mpo
ns,
nap
kin
s an
d n
apki
n li
ner
s fo
r ba
bies
, an
d si
mila
r ar
ti
0.0
06
0.7
28
.39
8.3
90
%_*
30.6
4%0
.00
Y10
%11
%21
%C
hin
a18
.17
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
58
TOP
100
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
PAK
ISTA
NI E
XPO
RTS
TO
IND
IA
Pro
du
ct
cod
ePr
od
uct
lab
elPa
k 20
14
Exp
ort
s to
Ind
ia
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Exp
ort
s
Pak
2014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Pak-
Ind
ia
CA
GR
Ind
ia
Imp
ort
C
AG
R
Pak
Exp
ort
C
AG
R
Bila
tera
l R
CA
Sen
siti
ve
list
Bas
ic
Tari
ffPa
ra
Tari
ffA
pp
lied
Ta
riff
Ind
ia's
M
ajo
r So
urc
e o
f Im
po
rts
Am
ou
nt
Imp
ort
ed
fro
m
Maj
or
Sou
rce
240
120
Toba
cco,
u
nm
anu
fact
ure
d, p
artl
y or
wh
olly
ste
mm
ed o
r st
ripp
ed
0.0
115
.89
8.2
88
.27
0%
18.1
7%-1
.38
%0
.06
Y30
%5%
35%
Zim
babw
e7.
83
7210
49
Flat
rol
led
prod
,i/n
as,p
late
d or
coa
ted
wit
h z
inc,
>/=
60
0m
m
wid
e, n
es
0.0
025
3.8
68
.10
8.1
00
%23
.39
%55
.44%
0.0
0Y
15%
11%
26%
Kore
a12
9.5
4
420
330
Belt
s an
d ba
ndo
liers
of
leat
her
or
of
com
posi
tion
leat
her
0.0
015
.49
7.9
17.
91
18.9
2%40
.88
%13
.65%
0.0
2N
5%18
%23
%C
hin
a8
.74
720
917
Col
d ro
lled
iron
/ste
el,
coils
>6
00
mm
x 0
.5-
1mm
0.0
040
1.6
77.
80
7.8
00
%17
.46
%_*
0.0
0N
15%
11%
26%
Kore
a24
6.2
2523
90
Hyd
rau
lic c
emen
ts n
es0
.01
7.73
7.9
97.
72-3
2.75
%26
.71%
3.48
%0
.10
N5%
4%9
%C
hin
a3.
29
190
590
Com
mu
nio
n
waf
ers,
empt
y ca
chet
s f
phar
m u
se&
sim
pr
od&
bake
rs' w
ares
nes
0.0
17.
67
19.5
87.
66
-18
.72%
15.1
3%38
.76
%0
.03
Y30
%9
%39
%Ba
ngl
ades
h3.
32
580
710
Labe
ls, b
adge
s an
d si
mila
r w
oven
art
icle
s of
tex
tile
mat
eria
ls0
.00
30.1
47.
65
7.6
5-2
4.21
%9
.73%
9.9
1%0
.01
N5%
18%
23%
Hon
g Ko
ng
10.5
3
3923
21Sa
cks
and
bags
(i
ncl
udi
ng
con
es)
of
poly
mer
s of
eth
ylen
e0
.00
11.6
57.
62
7.6
2*
-21.
42%
9.6
9%
23.8
3%0
.00
Y10
%19
%29
%Sr
i Lan
ka4.
79
200
98
9
Juic
e of
fru
it
or v
eget
able
s,
un
ferm
ente
d, w
het
her
or
not
con
tain
ing
adde
d su
gar
or o
ther
0.0
07.
5310
.83
7.53
0%
_*_*
0.0
0N
5%11
%16
%U
AE
1.79
64
032
0
Foot
wea
r,ou
tr s
ole/
upp
r of
leat
hr,
stra
p ac
ross
th
e in
step
/arn
d bi
g to
e
0.0
57.
5727
.15
7.51
_*29
.70
%26
.58
%0
.13
N5%
18%
23%
Ch
ina
4.13
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
59
250
510
Silic
a sa
nds
an
d qu
artz
sa
nds
0.0
016
.92
7.4
37.
430
%17
.92%
68
.62%
0.0
0N
5%4%
9%
Bhu
tan
7.6
2
09
024
0Bl
ack
tea
(fer
men
ted)
&
part
ly f
erm
ente
d te
a in
pa
ckag
es e
xcee
dg 3
kg
0.0
04
2.4
47.
357.
350
%4.
98
%38
.70
%0
.00
N8
%11
%19
%N
epal
19.6
6
710
310
Prec
/sem
i-pre
c st
ones
(o
/t d
iam
onds
) u
nw
orkd
/sim
ply
saw
n/
rou
gh s
hap
d
0.3
219
0.2
87.
67
7.35
19.6
2%7.
44%
25.0
5%2.
61
N5%
18%
23%
Hon
g Ko
ng
79.0
8
520
931
Plai
n w
eave
cot
ton
fa
bric
s,>
/=8
5%, m
ore
than
20
0 g
/m2,
dye
d0
.26
7.58
15.0
37.
3249
.62%
9.0
5%6
2.79
%1.
10N
5%18
%23
%C
hin
a5.
14
320
89
0Pa
ints
& v
arn
i bas
ed o
n
poly
mer
s di
ssol
v in
a
non
aqu
eou
s so
lv n
es0
.00
92.
69
7.29
7.29
0%
16.9
1%59
.84%
0.0
0N
10%
19%
29%
Ger
man
y13
.12
851
770
Part
s of
tel
eph
one
sets
, te
leph
ones
for
cellu
lar
net
wor
ks o
r fo
r ot
her
0.0
02,
725.
307.
06
7.0
60
%1.
66
%-8
.17%
0.0
0N
0%
17%
17%
Ch
ina
129
1.9
4
350
300
Gel
atin
an
d ge
lati
n
deri
vs; i
sin
glas
s; g
lues
of
an
imal
ori
gin
, nes
0.0
027
.80
6.8
66
.86
*-1
2.9
4%30
.13%
9.8
6%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%U
SA7.
41
851
769
App
arat
us
for
the
tran
smis
sion
or
rece
ptio
n o
f vo
ice,
im
ages
or
oth
er
0.0
08
85.
44
6.8
46
.84
0%
6.1
2%13
.84%
0.0
0N
0%
17%
17%
Ch
ina
360
.93
48
1950
Con
tain
ers,
pac
kin
g,
nes
(in
clu
din
g re
cord
sl
eeve
s) o
f pa
per
0.0
111
.44
6.7
16
.70
0%
30.4
1%54
.60
%0
.06
N5%
18%
23%
Ch
ina
4.42
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
60
7.2 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS34
A total of 53 agricultural products from the total 438 items considered at the 6-digit level represent a trade potential with India of USD 360 million. Therefore, 12% of the 438 items represent 11% of the total trade potential. Pakistan’s total exports to India within these items stood at USD 81 million in 2014, whereas total Pakistani exports to the world amounted to USD 3.2 billion and total Indian imports from the world amounted to USD 1 billion.35
26 items out of the 53 exhibit high potential CAGR values- that is to say, about half of these items have shown healthy growth in exports to the world by Pakistan and imports from the world to India whereas there has been little or negative growth in Pakistani exports to India. The total amount of trade potential within these high potential CAGR items is USD 96.6 million.
Only 8 items out of the 53 exhibit bilateral RCA>1, suggesting that few of these items are more important as a part of our export basket to India relative to our export basket to the world. Notable high potential items include HS 120740 (sesamum seeds), which show trade potential of 53 million as well as bilateral RCA>1 and healthy trends in Pakistani exports and Indian imports, HS 080410 (Dates), which shows trade potential of USD 16.3 million along with a bilateral RCA>1 and significant growth again in Pakistani exports and Indian imports of the product to the world, and HS 030289 (fresh or chilled fish) which shows trade potential of USD 16.4 million and significant growth in both world exports by Pakistan and world imports by India. HS 8 (fruits), HS 12 (oil seeds, oleagic fruits etc) and HS 17 (Sugar and sugar confectionaries) items all show significant trade potential and high potential CAGR values.36
17 out of these 53 items are on India’s sensitive list for Pakistan. These items exhibit a collective trade potential of USD 108 million. So 31% of the relevant products contain 30% of the total trade potential within them- therefore the sensitive list items do not have disproportionately high potential on average. 9 of the 17 sensitive list items also have high potential CAGR metrics associated with them. Only two have bilateral RCAs exceeding unity. A major high potential item on the sensitive list is the aforementioned HS 120740 (sesamum seeds).
In summation, more than half of the high potential Agricultural items have experienced growth in Pakistani exports and Indian imports over 2004-2014 without accompanying growth in Pakistan-India trade, whereas only a few Pakistani agricultural items are currently exported to India at a disproportionately high rate. 30% of the items are on India’s sensitive list.
34The HS codes HS 01- HS 23 are included in this grouping.35Cumulative CAGR metrics for these 41 items would not be very suggestive since CAGR values are instructive in context with items taken singly at high code specifications, and CAGR values across HS codes are too generalized to tell us much of anything.36The complete list of high potential products is available, sorted by HS code, in Annexure A.
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
61
TOP
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
PAK
ISTA
NI A
GR
ICU
LTU
RA
L EX
POR
TS T
O IN
DIA
HS
co
de
Pro
du
ct la
bel
Pak
2014
Ex
po
rts
to In
dia
Ind
ia
2014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Exp
ort
s
Pak
2014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Pak-
Ind
ia
CA
GR
Ind
ia
Imp
ort
C
AG
R
Pak
Exp
ort
C
AG
R
Bila
tera
l R
CA
Sen
siti
ve
list
Bas
ic
Tari
ffPa
ra
Tari
ffA
pp
lied
Ta
riff
Ind
ia's
M
ajo
r So
urc
e o
f Im
po
rts
Am
ou
nt
imp
ort
ed
fro
m
maj
or
sou
rce
220
720
Ethy
l alc
ohol
an
d ot
her
spi
rits
, de
nat
ure
d, o
f an
y st
ren
gth
0.6
68
6.3
310
2.9
48
5.6
7-9
.21%
-1.6
1%26
.83%
0.4
0N
5%18
%23
%U
SA36
.74
120
740
Sesa
mu
m s
eeds
, w
het
her
or
not
bro
ken
12.3
610
6.1
76
5.40
53.0
475
.95%
48.1
7%12
.31%
11.9
1Y
30%
6%
36%
Som
alia
43.8
6
030
289
Fres
h o
r ch
illed
fish
, n
.e.s
.0
.00
16.4
619
.98
16.4
60
%_*
_*0
.00
Y30
%1%
31Ba
ngl
ades
h10
.53
08
04
10D
ates
, fre
sh o
r dr
ied
63.
64
199
.45
79.9
816
.33
10.2
3%17
.74%
11.1
5%50
.13
N5%
0%
5%Pa
kist
an9
5430
170
49
0
Suga
r co
nfe
ctio
ner
y n
es (
incl
udg
wh
ite
choc
olat
e),n
ot
con
tain
g co
coa
0.2
115
.27
48.6
115
.06
175.
81%
14.8
0%
21.4
7%0
.28
N5%
18%
23%
Ban
glad
esh
4.0
6
1211
90
Plan
ts &
pts
of p
lan
ts(i
ncl
se
d&fr
uit
) u
sd in
ph
arm
,per
f,in
sect
etc
n
es
1.8
46
8.5
014
.00
12.1
65.
53%
17.3
6%
20.6
1%8
.28
N5%
4%9
%N
eth
erla
nd
9.2
6
190
219
Un
cook
ed p
asta
, not
st
uff
ed o
r ot
her
wis
e pr
epar
ed, n
es0
.05
10.7
411
.34
10.7
031
.49
%13
.54%
19.6
1%0
.26
N5%
11%
16%
Nep
al3.
75
030
49
9
Froz
en fi
sh m
eat
wh
eth
er o
r n
ot
min
ced
(exc
l. sw
ordfi
sh, t
ooth
fish
an
d
0.0
011
.32
10.4
210
.42
0%
60
.02%
91.
85%
0.0
0N
5%4%
9%
Vie
tnam
9.0
8
1516
20
Veg
fats
&
oils
&fr
acti
ons
hydr
ogen
atd,
inte
r/re
-es
teri
fid,
etc,
ref'd
/not
0.0
09
.54
115.
279
.54
0%
-13.
32%
8.3
6%
0.0
0N
8%
12%
20%
Mal
aysi
a7.
32
190
590
Com
mu
nio
n
waf
ers,
empt
y ca
chet
s f
phar
m u
se&
sim
pr
od&
bake
rs' w
ares
n
es
0.0
17.
67
19.5
87.
66
-18
.72%
15.1
3%38
.76
%0
.03
Y30
%9
%39
%Ba
ngl
ades
h3.
32
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
62
7.3 PLASTICS (HS 39)
24 plastic items at the 6-digit level represent USD 170 million worth of trade potential with India. Therefore, this 5% of the 438 items considered accounts for 5% of the total trade potential. Pakistan’s total exports to India of these 25 items stood at USD 14 million in 2014, with global Pakistani exports of the items amounting to USD 208 million and global Indian imports of the items amounting to USD 2.1 billion.
7 items out of these 24 exhibit high potential CAGR metrics. These items account for USD 35.51 million of the total trade potential of USD 170 million.
5 items out of the 24 exhibit a bilateral RCA>1. These items have a total trade potential of 18.4 million. Notable high potential items include HS 390319 (Polystyrene), which exhibits a trade potential of USD 34.6 million and healthy trends in exports to the world by Pakistan and imports from the world to India, and HS 391590 (plastic waste), which displays a trade potential of USD 23 million and has high potential CAGR metrics associated with it. HS 3915 (waste and scrap of plastics), HS 3920 (other plates, sheets, films etc. of plastic) and HS 3924 (tableware, kitchenware, toiletry articles of plastic) all exhibit significant trade potentials and growth in Pakistani exports and imports of the relevant products.
18 out of the 24 items are on India’s sensitive list for Pakistan. These items display a collective trade potential of USD 111 million, and 7 of the items have favourable CAGR metrics associated with them. Only one of the sensitive list plastic items has a bilateral RCA value exceeding unity. Major high potential items on the sensitive list include HS 391590 (polythene waste and scrap) and HS 390262 (film and sheet of polythene terephthalates).
In summation, 30% of high potential plastics items have experienced growth in Pakistani world exports and Indian world imports with very low or negative growth in Pakistan-India trade, whereas only 20% are currently exported to India at a disproportionately high rate. 75% of these items are on India’s sensitive list for Pakistan.
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
63
TOP
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
PAK
ISTA
NI P
LAST
ICS
EXPO
RTS
TO
IND
IA
HS
cod
ePr
od
uct
lab
elPa
k 20
14
Exp
ort
s to
Ind
ia
Ind
ia
2014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Exp
ort
s
Pak
2014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Pak-
Ind
ia
CA
GR
Ind
ia
Imp
ort
C
AG
R
Pak
Exp
ort
C
AG
R
Bila
tera
l R
CA
Sen
siti
ve
list
Bas
ic
Tari
ffPa
ra
Tari
ffA
pp
lied
Ta
riff
Ind
ia's
M
ajo
r So
urc
e o
f Im
po
rts
Am
ou
nt
imp
ort
ed
fro
m
maj
or
sou
rce
390
319
Poly
styr
ene
nes
0.1
934
.83
52.2
534
.63
42.7
5%21
.52%
20.8
5%0
.23
N5%
18%
23%
Sin
gapo
re16
.31
3915
90
Plas
tics
was
te a
nd
scra
p n
es0
.31
103.
7023
.14
22.8
3_*
12.5
8%
39.0
2%0
.84
Y8
%14
%21
%G
erm
any
17.2
1
3920
62
Film
an
d sh
eet
etc,
n
on-c
ellu
lar
etc,
of
pol
yeth
ylen
e te
reph
thal
ates
0.1
749
.41
17.3
717
.20
175.
17%
37.7
8%
115.
61%
0.6
2Y
10%
19%
29%
Thai
lan
d13
.11
3924
90
Hou
seh
old
and
toile
t ar
ticl
es n
es, o
f pl
asti
cs0
.01
21.0
212
.22
12.2
1-8
.12%
26.2
9%
7.6
0%
0.0
5Y
10%
19%
29%
Thai
lan
d2.
38
3920
20Fi
lm a
nd
shee
t et
c, n
on-
cellu
lar
etc,
of
poly
mer
s of
pro
pyle
ne
0.0
071
.32
11.0
311
.03
*38
.44%
14.0
1%21
.66
%0
.00
Y10
%19
%29
%G
erm
any
19.4
7
3918
90
Floo
r, w
all a
nd
ceili
ng
cove
rin
gs e
tc, o
f pl
asti
cs
nes
0.0
014
.01
10.9
410
.94
0%
26.0
1%55
.77%
0.0
0Y
10%
19%
29%
Ch
ina
8.0
5
3926
90
Art
icle
s of
pla
stic
s or
of
oth
er m
ater
ials
of
Nos
39
.01
to 3
9.1
4 n
es0
.00
677
.04
10.2
210
.22
*-4
7.59
%19
.07%
-3.1
2%0
.00
Y10
%19
%29
%C
hin
a16
6.0
8
3923
21Sa
cks
and
bags
(i
ncl
udi
ng
con
es)
of
poly
mer
s of
eth
ylen
e0
.00
11.6
57.
62
7.6
2*
-21.
42%
9.6
9%
23.8
3%0
.00
Y10
%19
%29
%Sr
i Lan
ka4
.79
390
799
Poly
este
rs n
es, i
n
prim
ary
form
s0
.00
178
.76
6.4
66
.46
0%
14.9
4%-4
.47%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%C
hin
a35
.6
390
410
Poly
viny
l ch
lori
de, n
ot
mix
ed w
ith
any
oth
er
subs
tan
ces
12.3
717
4.9
418
.27
5.9
042
.50
%14
.51%
2.44
%42
.65
N5%
18%
23%
Taiw
an4
4.4
3
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
64
7.4 TEXTILE AND FOOTWEAR37
146 items at the 6-digit HS code level represent USD 852 million worth of trade potential with India. Therefore 33% of the total items account for 25% of the total trade potential within the 438 items. Pakistan’s total exports to India of these 146 items stood at USD 57 million in 2014, with global Pakistani exports of the items amounting to USD 5.2 billion and global Indian imports of the items amounting to USD 2.7 billion.
52 items out of these 146 exhibit high potential CAGR metrics, suggesting that both Pakistani exports and Indian imports of these items have shown growth during the period 2004-2014 whereas there has been no corresponding growth in exports of these items to India by Pakistan. These items account for USD 246 million of the total trade potential of USD 852 million.
14 out of the 146 textile items exhibit a bilateral RCA>1, and account for USD 203 million of the total trade potential. This means that 9.5% of the items account for 24% of the total trade potential, suggesting that these items have disproportionately high trade potential and already form a more important part of Pakistan’s export basket to India relative to their share in Pakistan’s export basket to the world. Other notable high potential textile/footwear items include HS 620342 (men’s trousers and shorts, not knitted), and HS 640399 (footwear with outer soles of rubber/plastics).
71 items out of the 146 are currently on India’s sensitive list for Pakistan. These represent a collective trade potential of USD 535 million, with 26 of them also showing high potential CAGR metrics that exhibit a total trade potential of USD 134 million. Four sensitive list items have a bilateral RCA>1, and they represent a trade potential of USD 155 million, USD 144 million of it residing within HS 520100 (cotton, not carded or combed). Other notable high potential textile/footwear items include HS 620342 (men’s trousers and shorts, not knitted), and HS 640399 (footwear with outer soles of rubber/plastics). HS 6109 (T-shirts, singlets, knitted or crocheted), HS 6203 (Men’s suits, jackets, trousers) and HS 6403 (Footwear, upper of leather) all show significant trade potential.
In summation, 35% of high potential textile and footwear items have experienced growth in Pakistani world exports and Indian world imports without growth in Pakistan-India trade, whereas only 9% of the items are currently exported to India by Pakistan at a disproportionately high rate. About half of these items are on India’s sensitive list for Pakistan.
37The HS codes from HS 52 to HS 64 (all inclusive) are grouped under this category.
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
65
TOP
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
PAK
ISTA
NI T
EXTI
LE A
ND
FO
OT
WEA
R E
XPO
RTS
TO
IND
IA
HS
Co
de
Pro
du
ct la
bel
Pak
2014
Ex
po
rts
to In
dia
Ind
ia
2014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Exp
ort
s
Pak
2014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Pak-
Ind
ia
CA
GR
Ind
ia
Imp
C
AG
R
Pak
Exp
ort
C
AG
R
Bila
tera
l R
CA
Sen
siti
ve
list
Bas
ic
Tari
ffPa
ra
Tari
ffA
pp
lied
Ta
riff
Ind
ia's
M
ajo
r So
urc
e o
f Im
po
rts
Am
ou
nt
imp
ort
ed
fro
m
maj
or
sou
rce
520
100
Cot
ton
, not
car
ded
or
com
bed
36.8
150
4.12
180
.94
144.
1370
.34%
8.7
8%
7.6
9%
12.8
2Y
0%
4%4%
USA
108
.1
620
342
Men
s/bo
ys t
rou
sers
an
d sh
orts
, of
cott
on, n
ot
knit
ted
0.2
86
2.0
76
64.
536
1.79
53.2
7%44
.32%
7.6
3%0
.03
Y10
%14
%24
%Ba
ngl
ades
h31
.83
64
039
9Fo
otw
ear,
ou
ter
sole
s of
ru
bber
/pla
stic
s u
pper
s of
le
ath
er, n
es0
.01
32.1
577
.54
32.1
432
.64%
35.4
9%
25.7
2%0
.01
Y10
%19
%29
%C
hin
a26
.27
630
419
Beds
prea
ds o
f te
xtile
m
ater
ials
, nes
, not
kn
itte
d or
cro
chet
ed0
77.2
328
.62
28.6
20
%50
.63%
17.6
3%0
Y10
%19
%29
%C
hin
a33
.68
610
910
T-sh
irts
, sin
glet
s an
d ot
her
ve
sts,
of
cott
on, k
nit
ted
0.0
124
.94
195.
4124
.93
-15.
23%
38.8
0%
3.17
%0
Y10
%14
%24
%Ba
ngl
ades
h6
.27
630
790
Mad
e u
p ar
ticl
es, o
f te
xtile
m
ater
ials
, nes
, in
clu
din
g dr
ess
patt
ern
s0
22.8
136
.82
22.8
1-4
4.6
9%
8.4
2%-3
.90
%0
N5%
18%
23%
UA
E6
.04
630
140
Blan
kets
(o/
t el
ectr
ic)
and
trav
ellin
g ru
gs, o
f sy
nth
etic
fibr
es0
48
.92
22.2
522
.25
0%
56.1
1%48
.38
%0
N10
%19
%29
%C
hin
a33
.78
5512
19
Wov
en
fabr
ics,
con
tain
g>/=
85%
of
poly
este
r st
aple
fibr
es,o
/t
un
bl o
r bl
018
.75
27.4
318
.75
-25.
42%
13.1
8%
41.8
1%0
N5%
18%
23%
Ch
ina
12.1
4
610
99
0T-
shir
ts,s
ingl
ets
and
oth
er
vest
s,of
oth
er t
exti
le
mat
eria
ls,k
nit
ted
018
.12
76.0
918
.12
14.4
7%35
.15%
36.7
0%
0Y
10%
14%
24%
Ch
ina
5.48
611
599
Hos
iery
nes
, of
oth
er
text
ile m
ater
ials
, kn
itte
d0
17.9
57.5
917
.90
%52
.45%
16.6
1%0
Y10
%14
%24
%C
hin
a12
.82
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
66
7.5 MACHINERY (HS 84)
31 machinery (HS 84) items at the 6-digit HS code level represent USD 207 million worth of trade potential. So 7% of the total items analysed account for 6% of the total trade potential. Pakistan’s total exports to India of these 31 items stood at a mere USD 0.25 million in 2014, with global Pakistani exports of the items amounting to USD 212 million and global Indian imports of the items amounting to USD 6.5 billion.
24 items out of these 31 show high potential CAGR values. These items account for USD 178 million of the total machinery trade potential of USD 207 million.
Only three HS 84 items have a bilateral RCA>1, suggesting that most of these items do not rely disproportionately on the Indian market. The three items have a small collective trade potential of USD 5.68 million.
Only two items from the 31, HS 841821 (refrigerators, household type, compression type) and HS 841451 (fans: table, roof with a self-contained motor of an output exceeding 125 W), are on India’s sensitive list for Pakistan. They have a collective potential of USD 43.75 million, with USD 38.6 million residing in HS 841451, which also has high potential CAGR values associated with it. High potential 4-digit HS codes include HS 8411 (Turbo-jets, turbo propellers and other gas turbines), which has trade potential worth USD 39 million, and HS 8414 (air, vacuum pump), which shows trade potential worth USD 51.8 million.
In summation, 77% of high potential machinery items have experienced healthy growth in Pakistani world exports and Indian world imports without accompanying growth in Pakistan-India growth, whereas only 10% of these items are already exported to India at a disproportionately high rate. Only two items are on India’s sensitive list though both are very high potential items.
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
67
TOP
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
PAK
ISTA
NI M
AC
HIN
ERY
EX
POR
TS T
O IN
DIA
HS
Co
de
Pro
du
ct la
bel
Pak
2014
Ex
po
rts
to In
dia
Ind
ia
2014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Exp
ort
s
Pak
2014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Pak-
Ind
ia
CA
GR
Ind
ia
Imp
C
AG
R
Pak
Exp
ort
C
AG
R
Bila
tera
l R
CA
Sen
siti
ve
list
Bas
ic
Tari
ffPa
ra
Tari
ffA
pp
lied
Ta
riff
Ind
ia's
M
ajo
r So
urc
e o
f Im
po
rts
Am
ou
nt
imp
ort
ed
fro
m
maj
or
sou
rce
84
1451
Fan
s: t
able
,roo
f et
c w
a
self
-con
t el
ec m
tr o
f an
ou
tpu
t n
t ex
cdg
125W
071
.54
38.5
638
.56
0%
18.9
0%
11.8
8%
0Y
9%
19%
28%
Ch
ina
63.
89
84
118
2G
as t
urb
ines
nes
of
a po
wer
exc
eedi
ng
500
0 K
W0
84
.45
23.1
923
.19
0%
13.2
2%42
.08
%0
N5%
19%
24%
UK
12.9
9
84
071
0A
ircr
aft
engi
nes
, spa
rk-
ign
itio
n r
ecip
roca
tin
g or
ro
tary
typ
e0
149
.24
17.6
817
.68
0%
38.5
9%
26.9
6%
0N
5%19
%24
%U
SA6
6.5
2
84
1510
Air
con
diti
onin
g m
ach
ines
w
indo
w o
r w
all t
ypes
, sel
f-co
nta
ined
040
1.9
416
.37
16.3
70
%32
.14%
23.4
7%0
N5%
19%
24%
Thai
lan
d21
4.24
84
119
9Pa
rts
of g
as t
urb
ines
nes
019
9.5
914
.46
14.4
60
%10
.63%
39.1
0%
0N
5%19
%24
%U
SA47
.45
84
1810
Com
bin
ed r
efri
gera
tor-
free
zers
, fitt
ed w
ith
se
para
te e
xter
nal
doo
rs0
103.
94
12.4
512
.45
0%
43.7
1%26
.14%
0N
5%18
%23
%Th
aila
nd
29.9
8
84
149
0Pa
rts
of v
acu
um
pu
mps
, co
mpr
esso
rs, f
ans,
bl
ower
s, h
oods
040
5.8
812
.27
12.2
70
%15
.44%
22.2
4%0
N5%
19%
24%
Ch
ina
86
.69
84
314
3Pa
rts
of b
orin
g or
sin
kin
g m
ach
iner
y, w
het
her
or
not
se
lf-p
rope
lled
035
1.42
11.7
711
.77
_*14
.05%
-1.8
5%0
N5%
19%
24%
USA
167.
7
84
7330
Part
s&ac
cess
orie
s of
au
tom
atic
dat
a pr
oces
sg
mac
hin
es&
un
its
ther
eof
01,
429
.22
10.0
110
.01
0%
3.0
9%
20.7
6%
0N
0%
17%
17%
Ch
ina
777.
86
84
1829
Refr
iger
ator
s, h
ouse
hol
d ty
pe, n
es0
7.78
5.8
15.
81
0%
-1.9
6%
81.
47%
0N
5%18
%23
%Tu
rkey
2.23
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
68
7.6 PHARMACEUTICAL PRODUCTS (HS 30)
10 pharmaceutical products at the 6-digit HS code level represent a trade potential of USD 170 million. So 2% of the 438 items considered represent 5% of the total trade potential. In 2014 Pakistan reported exports of these 10 items to India worth a mere USD 0.15 million, while global Pakistani exports of these items equalled USD 197 million and global Indian imports amounted to USD 762 million.
7 of these 10 items exhibit high CAGR values, suggesting that both Pakistani exports and Indian imports of these items have shown growth during the period 2004-2014 whereas there has been no corresponding growth in exports of these items to India by Pakistan. These 7 high potential CAGR items have a combined trade potential of USD 70 million.
3 of these 10 items are on India’s sensitive list for Pakistan. These 3 items have a combined trade potential of USD 35.7 million. Two of the items, HS 300420 and HS300390, have high potential CAGR values associated with them.
High potential 4-digit HS codes include HS 3004 (Medicament mixtures), which has trade potential amounting to USD 149 million, and HS 3003 (Medicament mixtures), which shows trade potential amounting to USD 20 million).
In summation, 70% of these pharmaceutical items have witnessed healthy growth in Pakistani world exports and Indian world imports without similar growth in Pakistan-India trade. None of these items are exported at a disproportionately high rate to India. 3 of these items are on India’s sensitive list for Pakistan.
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
69
TOP
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
PAK
ISTA
NI P
HA
RM
AC
EUTI
CA
L EX
POR
TS T
O IN
DIA
HS
Co
de
Pro
du
ct la
bel
Pak
to
Ind
ia
Exp
ort
s 20
14
Ind
ia
Wo
rld
Im
po
rts
2014
Pak
Wo
rld
Ex
po
rts
2014
Paki
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
in 2
014
Pak-
Ind
ia
CA
GR
Ind
ia
Imp
C
AG
R
Pak
Exp
ort
C
AG
R
Bila
tera
l R
CA
Sen
siti
ve
list
Bas
ic
Tari
ffPa
ra
Tari
ffA
pp
lied
Ta
riff
Ind
ia's
M
ajo
r So
urc
e o
f Im
po
rts
Am
ou
nt
imp
ort
ed
fro
m
maj
or
sou
rce
300
49
0M
edic
amen
ts n
es, i
n
dosa
ge0
.03
566
.25
86
.57
86
.54
4.9
4%15
.68
%9
.96
%0
.02
N5%
7%12
%Sw
itze
rlan
d8
2.75
300
439
Hor
mon
es n
es, n
ot
con
tain
ing
anti
biot
ics,
in
dosa
ge,o
/t c
ontr
acep
tive
0.0
073
.05
21.5
821
.58
0%
23.1
9%
44.3
6%
0.0
0N
10%
11%
21%
Swit
zerl
and
12.6
9
300
420
An
tibi
otic
s n
es, i
n d
osag
e0
.00
24.7
012
.87
12.8
70
%13
.09
%25
.38
%0
.00
Y10
%11
%21
%Sw
itze
rlan
d6
6.7
3
300
590
Dre
ssin
gs&
sim
ilar
arti
cles
,impr
eg o
r co
atd
or
pack
agd
for
md
use
,nes
0.0
015
.51
12.0
712
.07
0%
8.6
6%
28.1
0%
0.0
0N
5%11
%16
%U
SA5.
14
300
390
Med
icam
ents
nes
, fo
rmu
late
d, in
bu
lk0
.12
39.4
712
.09
11.9
714
5.24
%11
.02%
3.79
%0
.61
Y10
%7%
17%
Ger
man
y15
.39
300
410
Pen
icill
ins
or
stre
ptom
ycin
s an
d th
eir
deri
vati
ves,
in d
osag
e0
.00
19.3
210
.90
10.9
00
%27
.40
%40
.33%
0.0
0Y
10%
7%17
%Sw
itze
rlan
d52
.39
300
339
Hor
mon
es
nes
,for
mu
latd
,not
cn
tg
anti
biot
ics,
in b
ulk
,o/t
co
ntr
acep
tive
s
0.0
05.
98
28.5
65.
98
0%
13.4
5%6
3.51
%0
.00
N5%
7%12
%Ir
elan
d1.
16
300
450
Vit
amin
s an
d th
eir
deri
vati
ves,
in d
osag
e0
.00
5.28
4.7
64.
760
%7.
49%
10.9
5%0
.00
N10
%11
%21
%U
SA2.
37
300
510
Dre
ssin
gs a
nd
oth
er
arti
cles
hav
ing
an
adh
esiv
e la
yer
0.0
010
.82
1.8
61.
86
0%
10.5
2%-7
.07%
0.0
0N
5%11
%16
%U
SA2.
33
300
310
Pen
icill
ins
or
stre
ptom
ycin
s an
d th
eir
deri
vati
ves,
form
ula
ted,
in
bulk
0.0
01.
64
5.9
41.
64
0%
-7.2
6%
102.
98
%0
.00
N5%
7%12
%U
K1.
24
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
70
SECTION III: ANALYSIS OF
HIGH POTENTIAL INDIAN EXPORTS TO
PAKISTAN
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
72
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
73
8.0 ANALYSIS OF HIGH POTENTIAL INDIAN EXPORTS TO PAKISTAN
The following tables provide a quick overview of the analysis of India’s high potential exports to Pakistan.
TRADE POTENTIAL
81% of India’s total trade potential lies with India is within the 335 analysed items at 6-digit HS code level.
CAGRAbout 40% of these 335 items have shown healthy growth in global Indian exports and global Pakistani imports while showing negative, low or zero growth in Indian exports to Pakistan.
BILATERAL RCA32% of these 335 items are exported at a “disproportionate” level to Pakistan, meaning the Pakistani market is a relatively important export destination for these items.
NEGATIVE LIST21% of these 335 items are on Pakistan’s negative list, and they contain 18% of the total trade potential within the 335 items.
Sectors with Major Trade Potential
Sector
Current Indian
Exports to Pakistan
Trade Potential
Major Items Metrics Overview
Agricultural Products
USD 400 million in 23 items
USD 1.2 billion in 23 items
HS 090240 (Black tea), HS 230400 (Soya bean oil cake)
22% high CAGR items,69% items with bilateral RCA>1, 30% items on Pakistan’s sensitive list, none on negative list
High growth in world exports by India and world imports by Pakistan without growth in India-Pak trade in some products, many disproportionately high Indian exports to Pak, items moderately protected by Pakistan
MachineryUSD 26 million in 68 items
USD 1.9 billion in 68 items
HS 8421 (Centrifuges, incl. centrifugal dryers), HS 8422 (Dish-washing machines), HS 8431 (Machinery part)
35% high CAGR items, 25% items with bilateral RCA>1, 16% items on Pakistan’s negative list
High growth in world exports by India and world imports by Pakistan without growth in India-Pak trade in many products, many disproportionately high Indian exports to Pak, low protection of items by Pakistan
Vehicles other thanrailway,tramway
USD 0.09 million in 16 items
USD 1.1 billion in 16 items
HS 8703 (Cars), HS 8704 (Trucks)
88% high CAGR items, no items with bilateral RCA>1, 94% items on Pakistan’s negative list
High growth in world exports by India and world imports by Pakistan without growth in India-Pak trade in most products, no disproportionately high Indian exports to Pak, items heavily protected by Pakistan
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
74
Sectors with Major Trade Potential
Sector
Current Indian
Exports to Pakistan
Trade Potential
Major Items Metrics Overview
Auto SectorUSD 31 million in 20 items
USD 756 million in 20 items
HS 4011 (New pneumatic tires of rubber), HS 8409 (Parts for use solely with motor engines)
65% high CAGR items, 20% items with bilateral RCA>1, 60% items on Pakistan’s negative list
High growth in world exports by India and world imports by Pakistan without growth in India-Pak trade in over half of all products, few disproportionately high Indian exports to Pak, items heavily protected by Pakistan
Iron and SteelUSD 0.09 million in 32 items
USD 1.2 billion in 32 items
HS 7208 (Flat-rolled products of iron, not clad), HS 7210 (Flat-rolled products of iron, plated or coated)
75% high CAGR items, no items with bilateral RCA>1, 50% items on Pakistan’s negative list
High growth in world exports by India and world imports by Pakistan without growth in India-Pak trade in many products, no disproportionately high Indian exports to Pak, items moderately protected by Pakistan
Organic ChemicalUSD 152 million in 24 items
USD 785 million in 24 items
HS 2902 (Cyclic Hyrdrocarbons), HS 2941(Antibiotics)
21% high CAGR items, 67% items with bilateral RCA>1, 25% items on Pakistan’s negative list
High growth in world exports by India and world imports by Pakistan without growth in India-Pak trade in few products, many disproportionately high Indian exports to Pak, items moderately protected by Pakistan
The analysis detailed in the methodology section was carried out on Indian exports to Pakistan with trade potential equal to or in excess of USD 10 million. This limits this analysis to export items that command at minimum a market of USD 10 million in Pakistan and minimum Indian export earnings of USD 10 million as of 2014.
Indian exports to Pakistan within the 335 items that met the above criterion amounted to USD 1.3 billion in 2014, out of total Indian exports to Pakistan of USD 2.2 billion in the same year. Therefore, the 438 items represent 60% of total Indian exports to Pakistan. Pakistan’s imports within these items amounts to USD 27.4 billion, out of a total import bill of USD 47.5 billion in 2014.
Trade Potential
The 335 Indian products with trade potential to Pakistan exceeding USD 10 million represented a total trade potential of USD 21.9 billion in 2014. This is notably far higher thanPakistan’stradepotentialtoIndia,whichwascalculatedtobeUSD3.4billion. The
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
75
total trade potential to India for all 4435 items with available data was USD 26.9 billion in 2014. Therefore the products taken into consideration for this analysis account for 81% of total Indian trade potential to Pakistan. So 7.6 % of Indian export items at the 6-digit level accounted for 81% of India’s total trade potential with Pakistan in 2014.
CAGR
Out of these 335 items, 138 can be considered high potential CAGR items. In other words, 137 items witnessed healthy growth during the period 2004-2014 in Indian exports of the itemandPakistani importsof the item,butsawnegative,zero,orvery lowgrowth inIndian exports to Pakistan of the item during the same period. This means that healthy trends are already in place- they must now be effectively harnessed to boost Pakistan-India trade.
USD 11.7 billion of the trade potential in the 335 items lies within these high potential CAGR products. Therefore 53% of trade potential within the analysed items lies within products that have experience favourable trends in their exports and imports by Pakistan respectively, but have failed to capitalize on these trends where Pakistan-India trade is concerned. For Pakistan only 41% of total calculated trade potential lay within high CAGR items, again suggesting that India stands to gain more from liberalized trade relations between the two countries than does Pakistan.
7 high potential CAGR items exhibit a bilateral RCA> 1. These items deserve special attention since they have positive export and import trends and despite having a negative India-Pakistan export trend Pakistan is still a disproportionately important export destination for these Indian products as compared to India’s exports to the rest of the world.
High potential CAGR products are highlighted in red in this study.
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
76
Ind
ian
Exp
ort
s to
Pak
ista
n w
ith
Hig
h P
ote
nti
al C
AG
R v
alu
es a
nd
Bila
tera
l RC
A>
1
HS
cod
ePr
od
uct
lab
elIn
dia
20
14
Exp
ort
s to
Pa
k
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d E
xpo
rt
Ind
ia 2
014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Ind
ia-P
ak
CA
GR
Pak
Imp
ort
C
AG
RIn
dia
Exp
ort
C
AG
RB
ilate
ral R
CA
Ap
plie
d
Tari
ffSe
nsi
tive
list
290
243
P-xy
len
e11
3.6
634
9.3
41,
027
.79
235.
68
1.74
%3.
78%
13.9
3%23
.41
5%N
140
49
0Ve
geta
ble
prod
uct
s n
es1.
80
26.4
128
.96
24.6
1-2
.44%
15.9
3%16
.86
%13
.16
10%
Y
390
110
Poly
ethy
len
e h
avin
g a
spec
ific
grav
ity
of le
ss t
han
0
.94
2.8
830
4.4
754
.00
51.1
1-2
.38
%13
.16
%1.
92%
11.3
05%
N
40
1120
Pneu
mat
ic t
ires
new
of
rubb
er fo
r bu
ses
or lo
rrie
s26
.86
190
.18
575.
4216
3.32
3.0
3%9
.69
%8
.66
%9
.88
13%
Y
40
1110
Pneu
mat
ic t
ire
new
of
rubb
er f
mot
or c
ar in
cl
stat
ion
wag
ons&
racg
car
s1.
80
18.2
69
8.6
216
.46
-0.4
3%2.
19%
14.4
2%3.
87
25%
Y
2922
19A
min
o-al
coh
ols
nes
, th
eir
eth
ers
and
este
rs; s
alts
th
ereo
f0
.74
15.0
747
.76
14.3
3-0
.31%
12.0
9%
21.0
6%
3.28
5%N
390
720
Poly
eth
ers
nes
0.5
011
0.7
36
6.0
86
5.58
0.8
2%14
.09
%48
.74%
1.6
15%
N
530
310
Jute
an
d ot
her
tex
tile
bas
t fi
bres
, raw
or
rett
ed0
.08
39.2
815
.66
15.5
7-6
9.1
3%2.
72%
23.0
6%
1.12
0%
N
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
77
Bilateral RCA
107 items out of the 335 exhibit a bilateral RCA greater than 1. These 107 items exhibit a collective trade potential of USD 4.7 billion.
These 107 items are exported at disproportionately high levels to Pakistan as compared to the Indian exports to the rest of the world, and many of them draw on large export production by India and rely on strong demand from Pakistan. Takingourtradepotentialfigures intoconsideration in tandemwith bilateral RCA therefore tells us that there is significantroom for growth within items that already dominate India’s export basket to Pakistan. As already noted, 7 of the 107 bilateral RCA>1 items exhibit high potential CAGR values.
Negative List items
90 items of the 335 analysed are on Pakistan’s negative list for India. These items represent a collective trade potential of USD 3.9 billion.
The primary HS codes from the 335 items considered that show up on the negative list include HS 39 (plastics), HS 72 (iron and steel), HS 84 (machinery), HS 85 (electrical, electronic equipment), and HS 87 (vehicles other than railway, tramway). 54 of the 90 negative list items have high potential CAGR values associated with them, and so 60% of these items have experienced growth in Indian exports to the world and Pakistani imports from the world but have not experienced commensurate growth in Indian exports to Pakistan.
10 of the 90 items have bilateral RCA values exceeding unity, suggesting that Pakistan is not a disproportionately important market for most of these Indian items.
Note: “Y” in the “Applied Tariff” column indicates the item’s inclusion in Pakistan’s negative list.
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
78
9.1 TOP 100 HIGH POTENTIAL PAKISTANI EXPORTS TO INDIA
• Trade potential within the top 100 high potential items amounts to USD 17.4 billion out of a total trade potential at the 6-digit level for all 4435 items of USD 26.9 billion. So 65% of the total trade potential lies in these 100 items.
• 46 items exhibit high potential CAGR values with total trade potential of USD 10 billion.
• 29 items exhibit bilateral RCA values > 1 with total trade potential of USD 3.3 billion.
• 33 items are on Pakistan’s negative list for India with total trade potential of USD 2.9 billion.
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
79
TOP
100
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
IND
IAN
EX
POR
TS T
O P
AK
ISTA
N
Pro
du
ct
cod
ePr
od
uct
lab
elIn
dia
20
14
Exp
ort
s to
Pa
k
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d E
xpo
rt
Ind
ia 2
014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Ind
ia-P
ak
CA
GR
Pak
Imp
ort
C
AG
RIn
dia
Exp
ort
C
AG
RB
ilate
ral R
CA
Ap
plie
d
Tari
ffSe
nsi
tive
Lis
t
2710
19O
ther
pet
role
um
oils
an
d pr
epar
atio
ns
21.9
36
,26
6.7
240
,68
2.15
6,2
44.7
9-3
.73%
14.7
5%26
.05%
0.1
15%
N
2710
12Li
ght
petr
oleu
m o
ils a
nd
prep
arat
ion
s0
.02
2,29
1.33
19,7
42.7
92,
291.
32_*
22.0
5%_*
03%
N
390
210
Poly
prop
ylen
e10
8.8
145
8.3
81,
209
.48
349
.57
16.5
5%11
.23%
11.6
9%
19.0
45%
N
90
240
Blac
k te
a (f
erm
ente
d) &
pa
rtly
fer
men
ted
tea
in
pack
ages
exc
eedg
3 k
g22
.61
319
.19
577.
85
296
.59
21.5
7%4.
74%
7.71
%8
.28
10%
Y
230
40
0So
ya-b
ean
oil-
cake
&ot
h s
olid
re
sidu
es,w
het
her
or
not
gr
oun
d or
pel
let
186
.86
478
.91
1,18
0.7
229
2.0
516
.64%
36.2
8%
4.48
%33
.56
%N
870
321
Au
tom
obile
s w
rec
ipro
catg
pi
ston
en
gin
e di
spla
cg n
ot
mor
e th
an 1
00
0 c
c0
283.
221,
199
.77
283.
220
4.74
%12
.59
%0
YY
300
220
Vac
cin
es, h
um
an u
se10
.28
288
.75
577.
97
278
.47
36.0
6%
49.1
3%23
.91%
3.77
5%N
520
100
Cot
ton
, not
car
ded
or
com
bed
259
.02
521.
64
2,8
21.6
526
2.6
320
.33%
-1.2
4%31
.66
%19
.43
0%
N
300
49
0M
edic
amen
ts n
es, i
n d
osag
e22
.33
279
.62
8,2
88
.88
257.
2830
.04%
12.0
3%23
.34%
0.5
714
%Y
290
243
P-xy
len
e11
3.6
634
9.3
41,
027
.79
235.
68
1.74
%3.
78%
13.9
3%23
.41
5%N
540
233
Text
ure
d ya
rn n
es,o
f po
lyes
ter
fila
men
ts,n
ot p
ut
up
for
reta
il sa
le0
.49
214.
268
02.
08
213.
7770
.16
%20
.25%
37.2
1%0
.13
YN
870
322
Au
tom
obile
s w
rec
ipro
catg
pi
ston
en
gin
e di
spla
cg >
10
00
cc
to 1
500
cc
0.0
121
2.44
3,23
6.8
021
2.43
-5.1
7%12
.34%
31.1
0%
0Y
Y
854
140
Phot
osen
siti
ve s
emic
ondu
ct
devi
ce,p
hot
ovol
taic
ce
lls&
ligh
t em
it d
iode
s0
205.
5617
4.72
174.
72*
-19
.49
%77
.99
%7.
20%
05%
N
7210
49
Flat
rol
led
prod
,i/n
as,p
late
d or
coa
ted
wit
h
zin
c,>
/=6
00
mm
wid
e, n
es0
170
.29
93.
2717
0.2
07.
99
%1.
29%
0Y
N
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
80
TOP
100
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
IND
IAN
EX
POR
TS T
O P
AK
ISTA
N
Pro
du
ct
cod
ePr
od
uct
lab
elIn
dia
20
14
Exp
ort
s to
Pa
k
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d E
xpo
rt
Ind
ia 2
014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Ind
ia-P
ak
CA
GR
Pak
Imp
ort
C
AG
RIn
dia
Exp
ort
C
AG
RB
ilate
ral R
CA
Ap
plie
d
Tari
ffSe
nsi
tive
Lis
t
550
320
Stap
le fi
bres
of
poly
este
rs,
not
car
ded
or c
ombe
d0
.02
165.
4327
5.9
916
5.41
-25.
03%
27.5
6%
27.3
4%0
.01
YN
3824
90
Ch
emic
al/a
llied
indu
stry
pr
epar
atio
ns/
prod
s n
es6
.19
171.
4320
3.77
165.
2530
.35%
11.2
9%
23.9
3%6
.43
6%
N
40
1120
Pneu
mat
ic t
ires
new
of
rubb
er fo
r bu
ses
or lo
rrie
s26
.86
190
.18
575.
4216
3.32
3.0
3%9
.69
%8
.66
%9
.88
13%
Y
870
323
Au
tom
obile
s w
rec
ipro
catg
pi
ston
en
gin
e di
spla
cg >
15
00
cc
to 3
00
0 c
c0
162
835
.52
162
013
.11%
25.1
2%0
YY
851
770
Part
s of
tel
eph
one
sets
, te
leph
ones
for
cellu
lar
net
wor
ks o
r fo
r ot
her
0.0
116
0.3
350
1.9
416
0.3
3_*
-10
.11%
19.8
3%0
YN
720
839
Hot
rol
l iro
n/s
teel
nes
, coi
l >
60
0m
m x
<3m
m0
153.
83
303.
68
153.
83
048
.72%
5.8
3%0
YN
550
410
Stap
le fi
bres
of
visc
ose,
not
ca
rded
or
com
bed
32.7
183.
86
208
.68
151.
166
1.20
%9
.92%
29.2
0%
33.1
75%
N
851
762
Mac
hin
es f
or t
he
rece
ptio
n,
conv
ersi
on a
nd
tran
smis
sion
or
reg
ener
atio
034
6.3
113
5.9
135.
90
11.2
4%30
.74%
05%
N
88
024
0A
ircr
aft
nes
of
an u
nla
den
w
eigh
t ex
ceed
ing
15,0
00
kg
010
6.1
63,
431.
03
106
.16
0-1
1.59
%12
1.9
5%0
5%N
851
769
App
arat
us
for
the
tran
smis
sion
or
rece
ptio
n o
f vo
ice,
imag
es o
r ot
her
016
0.6
810
5.58
105.
580
-16
.78
%-1
.05%
03%
N
780
110
Lead
refi
ned
un
wro
ugh
t1.
05
102.
62
126
.08
101.
5721
.45%
26.0
7%49
.99
%1.
775%
N
84
198
9M
ach
iner
y,pl
ant/
labo
rato
ry
equ
ip f
tre
at o
f m
at b
y ch
ange
of
tem
p n
es0
.58
101.
2814
5.9
510
0.7
45.1
7%10
.98
%11
.85%
0.8
4Y
Y
90
189
0In
stru
men
ts a
nd
appl
ian
ces
use
d in
med
ical
or
vete
rin
ary
scie
nce
s, n
es0
.57
98
.96
208
.88
98
.39
38.5
6%
15.1
7%16
.59
%0
.58
5%N
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
81
852
380
Gra
mop
hon
e re
cord
s an
d ot
her
med
ia fo
r th
e re
cord
ing
of s
oun
d or
of
ot0
97.
07
98
.79
7.0
70
3.17
%-2
8.5
6%
05%
N
270
119
Coa
l nes
, wh
eth
er o
r n
ot p
ulv
eris
ed b
ut
not
ag
glom
erat
ed0
466
.77
93.
229
3.22
09
.76
%5.
83%
00
%N
630
90
0W
orn
clo
thin
g an
d ot
her
w
orn
art
icle
s0
.47
182.
468
9.6
58
9.1
88
1.6
3%17
.37%
40.1
2%1.
115%
N
290
531
Ethy
len
e gl
ycol
(et
han
edio
l)0
.05
202.
91
87.
238
7.18
-13.
99
%-1
.90
%1.
09
%0
.11
0%
N
720
838
Hot
rol
l iro
n/s
teel
nes
, coi
l >
60
0m
m x
3-4
.75m
m0
85.
2112
4.31
85.
210
97.
58%
28.6
8%
0Y
N
850
44
0St
atic
con
vert
ers,
nes
0.2
28
4.34
453.
318
4.12
60
.39
%18
.91%
27.0
5%0
.16
%N
100
119
Du
rum
wh
eat
(exc
l. se
ed fo
r so
win
g)0
185.
08
81.
148
1.14
0_*
_*0
10%
Y
84
09
99
Part
s fo
r di
esel
an
d se
mi-
dies
el e
ngi
nes
0.0
18
0.4
958
4.9
18
0.4
9-8
.98
%7.
68
%14
.57%
0Y
Y
84
148
0A
ir o
r ga
s co
mpr
esso
rs,
hoo
ds0
.24
79.2
327.
1878
.96
5.17
%5.
77%
36.3
1%0
.15
15%
Y
40
210
Milk
pow
der
not
exc
eedi
ng
1.5%
fat
30.5
610
8.6
321
7.0
678
.07
43.1
5%32
.46
%21
.41%
29.8
25%
Y
740
311
Cop
per
cath
odes
an
d se
ctio
ns
of c
ath
odes
u
nw
rou
ght
076
.84
2,57
8.0
676
.84
-50
.60
%5.
62%
22.0
2%0
0%
N
96
020
0W
orkd
veg
/min
eral
car
vg
mat
&ar
t,ca
rvd
art
nes
;wor
kd
un
har
den
d ge
lati
n0
.26
74.7
28
9.4
274
.45
60
.33%
15.3
1%15
.01%
0.6
2Y
N
871
120
Mot
orcy
cles
wit
h r
ecip
roca
tg
pist
on e
ngi
ne
disp
lacg
> 5
0
cc t
o 25
0 c
c0
73.8
31,
753.
4273
.83
05.
40%
23.2
3%0
YY
210
69
0Fo
od p
repa
rati
ons
nes
0.8
271
168
.44
70.1
910
.33%
21.5
1%17
.69
%1.
02
8%
N
84
818
0Ta
ps, c
ocks
, val
ves
and
sim
ilar
appl
ian
ces,
nes
0.1
76
8.8
871
7.6
76
8.7
1-2
.15%
8.8
0%
18.3
0%
0.0
5Y
Y
730
423
Dri
ll pi
pe, s
eam
less
, of
a ki
nd
use
d in
dri
llin
g fo
r oi
l or
gas,
of
ir0
67.
7776
.42
67.
770
55.5
0%
10.7
0%
015
%Y
390
720
Poly
eth
ers
nes
0.5
110
.73
66
.08
65.
580
.82%
14.0
9%
48.7
4%1.
61
5%N
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
82
TOP
100
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
IND
IAN
EX
POR
TS T
O P
AK
ISTA
N
Pro
du
ct
cod
ePr
od
uct
lab
elIn
dia
20
14
Exp
ort
s to
Pa
k
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d E
xpo
rt
Ind
ia 2
014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Ind
ia-P
ak
CA
GR
Pak
Imp
ort
C
AG
RIn
dia
Exp
ort
C
AG
RB
ilate
ral R
CA
Ap
plie
d
Tari
ffSe
nsi
tive
Lis
t
2711
19Pe
trol
eum
gas
es a
nd
oth
er
gase
ous
hydr
ocar
bon
s n
es,
liqu
efied
06
4.8
825
2.7
64.
88
012
.76
%31
.33%
03%
N
870
421
Die
sel p
ower
ed t
ruck
s w
ith
a
GV
W n
ot e
xcee
din
g fi
ve
ton
nes
06
3.43
271.
146
3.43
03.
56%
13.7
3%0
YY
84
2230
Mac
h f
fil/c
los/
seal
/etc
.btl
e/ca
n/b
ox/ b
ag/c
tnr
nes
,mac
h f
ae
ratg
bev
1.25
63.
449
6.5
62.
1949
.71%
17.3
3%23
.18
%2.
745%
N
850
720
Lead
-aci
d el
ectr
ic
accu
mu
lato
rs n
es0
61.
378
.27
61.
30
36.1
1%38
.64%
0Y
Y
84
314
3Pa
rts
of b
orin
g or
sin
kin
g m
ach
iner
y, w
het
her
or
not
se
lf-p
rope
lled
0.2
46
0.8
917
0.4
60
.65
116
.89
%8
.72%
41.9
4%0
.35%
N
850
213
Gen
erat
g se
ts,d
iese
l/sem
i-di
esel
en
gin
es,o
f an
ou
tpu
t ex
ceed
g 37
5 K
VA0
137.
7558
.97
58.9
60
3.0
1%19
.08
%0
.01
8%
Y
88
039
0Pa
rts
of b
allo
ons,
dir
igib
les,
an
d sp
acec
raft
nes
058
.77
165.
2958
.77
212.
49%
60
.94%
28.1
3%0
5%N
7219
90
Flat
rol
led
prod
, sta
inle
ss
stee
l, 6
00
mm
or
mor
e w
ide,
n
es0
58.6
68
9.4
758
.66
-44.
37%
7.57
%30
.11%
0.0
15%
N
730
429
Cas
ings
,,tu
bin
g, d
rill
pipe
, fo
r oi
l dri
llin
g u
se0
58.0
458
.22
58.0
40
12.3
6%
16.0
3%0
20%
Y
84
119
9Pa
rts
of g
as t
urb
ines
nes
010
2.6
957
.75
57.7
50
11.2
4%19
.22%
05%
N
294
190
An
tibi
otic
s n
es, i
n b
ulk
8.1
56
5.55
581.
84
57.4
12.7
5%6
.29
%18
.37%
2.9
7Y
Y
84
159
0Pa
rts
of a
ir c
ondi
tion
ing
mac
hin
es0
57.3
771
.88
57.3
7-7
6.2
4%12
.48
%17
.02%
0Y
Y
84
09
91
Part
s fo
r sp
ark-
ign
itio
n t
ype
engi
nes
nes
056
.97
283.
3456
.97
019
.39
%11
.64%
0Y
Y
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
83
69
08
90
Tile
s, c
ube
s an
d si
m n
es,
glaz
ed c
eram
ics
0.0
957
.03
326
.35
56.9
4_*
5.58
%37
.69
%0
.06
YY
871
410
Part
s an
d ac
cess
orie
s of
m
otor
cycl
es, i
ncl
. mop
eds,
n
.e.s
.0
56.0
211
6.1
956
.02
_*19
.61%
_*0
0%
Y
850
164
AC
gen
erat
ors,
of
an o
utp
ut
exce
edin
g 75
0 K
VA0
.99
74.9
956
.35
55.3
6_*
34.5
3%40
.88
%3.
7313
%Y
540
752
Wov
en f
abri
cs,>
/=8
5% o
f te
xtu
red
poly
este
r fi
lam
ents
, dy
ed, n
es0
.29
55.3
715
4.14
55.0
84.
72%
34.5
8%
2.30
%0
.415
%Y
380
89
1In
sect
icid
es3.
64
57.9
778
4.43
54.3
3-6
.77%
3.43
%9
.41%
0.9
811
%N
90
1839
Nee
dles
, cat
het
ers,
can
nu
lae
and
the
like,
nes
1.0
153
.99
220
.97
52.9
828
.70
%18
.29
%23
.91%
0.9
76
%N
853
710
Boar
ds,p
anel
s,in
clu
dg
nu
mer
ical
con
trol
pan
els,
for
a vo
ltag
e <
=10
00
V0
.17
52.9
532
1.6
952
.78
47.9
7%36
.28
%48
.67%
0.1
1Y
Y
84
798
9M
ach
ines
& m
ech
anic
al
appl
ian
ces
nes
hav
ing
indi
vidu
al f
un
ctio
ns
1.75
54.1
934
4.14
52.4
527
.41%
4.5
9%
18.5
6%
1.0
75%
N
320
416
Reac
tive
dye
s an
d pr
epar
atio
ns
base
d th
ereo
n37
.77
89
.46
68
3.6
151
.69
22.5
9%
10.2
3%19
.00
%11
.715
%Y
852
99
0Pa
rts
suit
able
f u
se s
olel
y/pr
inc
w t
he
app
of h
eadi
ngs
8
5.25
to
85.
280
51.6
413
3.6
551
.64
00
.02%
15.7
6%
06
%N
380
89
3H
erbi
cide
s, a
nti
-spr
outi
ng
prod
uct
s an
d pl
ant-
grow
th
regu
lato
rs1.
3452
.76
333.
06
51.4
21.
63%
4.9
3%33
.47%
0.8
55%
N
84
452
0Te
xtile
spi
nn
ing
mac
hin
es7.
158
.23
109
.88
51.1
310
2.9
2%-8
.26
%42
.21%
13.6
85%
N
390
110
Poly
ethy
len
e h
avin
g a
spec
ific
grav
ity
of le
ss t
han
0
.94
2.8
830
4.47
5451
.11
-2.3
8%
13.1
6%
1.9
2%11
.35%
N
720
916
Col
d ro
lled
iron
/ste
el, c
oils
>
60
0m
m x
1-3
mm
050
.96
53.5
850
.96
08
.34%
23.2
6%
0Y
N
2934
99
Nu
clei
c ac
ids
and
thei
r sa
lts,
w
het
her
or
not
ch
emic
ally
de
fin
ed; h
ete
3.18
53.6
638
2.0
350
.48
48.2
5%8
.29
%55
.44%
1.76
YN
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
84
TOP
100
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
IND
IAN
EX
POR
TS T
O P
AK
ISTA
N
Pro
du
ct
cod
ePr
od
uct
lab
elIn
dia
20
14
Exp
ort
s to
Pa
k
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d E
xpo
rt
Ind
ia 2
014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Ind
ia-P
ak
CA
GR
Pak
Imp
ort
C
AG
RIn
dia
Exp
ort
C
AG
RB
ilate
ral R
CA
Ap
plie
d
Tari
ffSe
nsi
tive
Lis
t
84
199
0Pa
rts
of m
ach
iner
y, p
lan
t an
d eq
uip
men
t of
hea
din
g N
o 8
4.19
0.1
550
.61
84.
550
.46
42.4
6%
25.1
7%11
.30
%0
.36
13%
Y
84
831
0Tr
ansm
issi
on s
haf
ts a
nd
cran
ks, i
ncl
udi
ng
cam
sh
afts
an
d cr
ank
shaf
ts0
50.1
725
5.6
950
.17
029
.58
%22
.24%
0Y
Y
84
06
90
Part
s of
ste
am a
nd
vapo
ur
turb
ines
1.72
69
.11
51.8
750
.15
69
.37%
35.9
6%
36.8
5%7.
02
5%N
80
610
Gra
pes,
fre
sh0
50.0
522
3.73
50.0
50
28.5
2%27
.79
%0
25%
Y
870
829
Part
s an
d ac
cess
orie
s of
bod
ies
nes
for
mot
or
veh
icle
s0
49.8
76
1.36
49.8
70
25.7
2%29
.92%
0Y
Y
230
99
0A
nim
al f
eed
prep
arat
ion
s n
es1.
5750
.21
165.
1548
.64
50.1
3%25
.12%
36.7
9%
2.0
120
%Y
850
220
Gen
erat
ing
sets
wit
h s
park
-ig
nit
ion
inte
rnal
com
bust
ion
pi
ston
en
gin
es0
.03
56.4
148
.31
48.2
8-7
3.78
%10
.70
%26
.17%
0.1
46
%N
850
300
Part
s of
ele
ctri
c m
otor
s,ge
ner
ator
s,ge
ner
atg
sets
& r
otar
y co
nver
ters
0.7
747
.21
248
.24
46.4
46
5.57
%17
.41%
23.2
4%0
.66
10%
Y
7225
30Fl
at r
olle
d pr
od,a
s,o/
t st
ain
less
,in c
oils
,nfw
th
n
hr,
w>
/=6
00
mm
,nes
017
1.0
245
.98
45.9
80
180
.56
%34
.08
%0
5%N
390
760
Poly
ethy
len
e te
reph
thal
ate
045
.76
517.
7545
.76
019
.21%
9.7
1%0
YY
870
89
9M
otor
veh
icle
par
ts n
es0
.08
45.4
32,
69
6.0
645
.35
30.2
0%
-8.2
7%19
.36
%0
.01
YY
730
89
0St
ruct
ure
s&pa
rts
of
stru
ctu
res,
i/s (
ex p
refa
b bl
dgs
of h
eadg
no.
940
6)
0.0
142
.52
418
.03
42.5
1-2
4.43
%22
.42%
16.5
1%0
.01
YY
390
69
0A
cryl
ic p
olym
ers
nes
, in
pr
imar
y fo
rms
1.42
43.2
96
5.72
41.8
619
.95%
8.3
3%17
.59
%4.
5912
%Y
84
314
9Pa
rts
of c
ran
es,w
ork-
tru
cks,
shov
els,
and
oth
er
con
stru
ctio
n m
ach
iner
y0
.06
40.8
933
1.9
940
.82
_*12
.33%
36.3
8%
0.0
45%
N
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
85
49
070
0
Un
usd
pos
tage
,rev
enu
e st
amps
;ch
equ
e fo
rms,
ban
knot
es,b
ond
cert
ific,
etc
032
2.38
40.6
240
.62
09
8.5
3%6
2.8
3%0
5%N
854
44
9El
ectr
ic c
ondu
ctor
s, fo
r a
volt
age
not
exc
eedi
ng
80
V,
nes
0.0
154
.04
39.7
239
.71
_*22
.70
%19
.76
%0
.03
YY
550
921
Yarn
,>/=
85%
of
poly
este
r st
aple
fibr
es, s
ingl
e, n
ot p
ut
up
6.0
952
.96
45.6
639
.57
138
.63%
73.6
8%
13.5
7%28
.25
5%N
870
210
Die
sel p
ower
ed b
use
s w
ith
a
seat
ing
capa
city
of
> n
ine
pers
ons
039
.36
259
.52
39.3
60
7.49
%15
.72%
0Y
Y
3926
90
Art
icle
s of
pla
stic
s or
of
oth
er m
ater
ials
of
Nos
39
.01
to 3
9.1
4 n
es1.
840
.99
506
.52
39.1
934
.22%
10.0
8%
19.9
1%0
.75
YN
88
033
0A
ircr
aft
part
s n
es0
.238
.75
1,25
0.7
938
.55
92.
93%
-5.6
6%
41.2
5%0
.03
5%N
84
821
0Be
arin
gs, b
all
0.1
438
.45
58.3
838
.31
25.8
0%
7.14
%6
.38
%0
.55%
N
84
304
9Bo
rin
g or
sin
kin
g m
ach
iner
y n
es, n
ot s
elf-
prop
elle
d0
88
.68
37.8
37.8
019
.88
%28
.49
%0
5%N
3822
00
Com
posi
te d
iagn
osti
c or
la
bora
tory
rea
gen
ts, n
es0
.759
.11
38.0
537
.35
42.0
4%19
.55%
17.4
9%
3.9
18
%N
84
7150
Dig
ital
pro
cess
ing
un
its
not
so
ld a
s co
mpl
ete
syst
ems
037
.08
57.4
137
.08
024
.67%
35.7
0%
00
%N
48
1159
Pape
r an
d pa
perb
oard
, su
rfac
e-co
lou
red,
su
rfac
e-de
cora
ted
or p
rin
ted,
036
.88
79.9
836
.88
022
.36
%42
.28
%0
YN
390
120
Poly
ethy
len
e h
avin
g a
spec
ific
grav
ity
of 0
.94
or
mor
e21
.12
221.
94
57.9
136
.79
63.
79%
7.33
%-1
4.0
5%77
.25%
N
950
300
Tric
ycle
s, s
coot
ers,
ped
al c
ars
and
sim
ilar
wh
eele
d to
ys;
dolls
'' ca
rr0
.06
36.7
739
.79
36.7
1_*
13.3
1%27
.87%
0.3
17%
N
84
2121
Filt
erin
g or
pu
rify
ing
mac
hin
ery
and
appa
ratu
s fo
r w
ater
0.8
637
.48
5.23
36.5
46
8.1
8%
23.6
2%33
.97%
2.14
25%
Y
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
86
9.2 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS38
23 agricultural products at the 6-digit HS code represent USD 1.2 billion worth of trade potential. Therefore, 6.9% of the total products analysed account for 5.4% of the total trade potential. Indian exports to Pakistan of these 23 products stood at USD 400 million in 2014, with total Indian exports to the world amounting to USD 3.8 billion and total Pakistani imports amounting to USD 1.9 billion for the same year.
5 out of these 23 items have high potential CAGR values associated with them, meaning that 22% of these items have shown healthy growth in Indian world exports and Pakistani world imports without accompanying growth in Indian exports to Pakistan. These 5 items represent a total trade potential of USD 185 million.
16 of these 23 items have bilateral RCA>1, which suggests that 70% of these items are exported in “disproportionate” amounts to Pakistan, meaning they form a relatively larger part of India’s export basket to Pakistan than they do of India’s export basket to the world. Therefore many Indian agricultural items have already found a foothold in Pakistan, one that further concessions would likely help secure.
None of these 23 items are on Pakistan’s negative list for India, while 7 are on Pakistan’s sensitive list under SAFTA, including high potential items HS 90240 (black tea), and HS 100119 (durum wheat).
In summation, only around 20% of these items have experienced healthy growth in Indian world exports and Pakistan world imports without accompanying growth in India-Pakistan trade, suggesting that most of these high potential items have grown in Indian exports to Pakistan. 70% of these Indian items are also already exported to Pakistan at a disproportionately high rate, further suggesting that Pakistan is a promising market for Indian agricultural exports. None of these items are on Pakistan’s negative list for India, which is also telling, since low protectionism on Pakistan’s part has likely improved the fortunes of Indian agricultural exporters.
38The following HS codes are included in the grouping: 01,02,04,05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 17,18, 19, 21, 22, 23.
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
87
TOP
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
IND
IAN
AG
RIC
ULT
UR
AL
EXPO
RTS
TO
PA
KIS
TAN
HS
cod
ePr
od
uct
lab
elIn
dia
20
14
Exp
ort
s to
Pa
k
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d
Exp
ort
Ind
ia 2
014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Ind
ia-P
ak
CA
GR
Pak
Imp
ort
C
AG
R
Ind
ia
Exp
ort
C
AG
R
Bila
tera
l R
CA
Ap
plie
d
Tari
ffSe
nsi
tive
lis
t
90
240
Blac
k te
a (f
erm
ente
d) &
pa
rtly
fer
men
ted
tea
in
pack
ages
exc
eedg
3 k
g22
.61
319
.19
577.
85
296
.59
21.5
7%4.
74%
7.71
%0
.01
10%
Y
230
40
0So
ya-b
ean
oil-
cake
&ot
h s
olid
re
sidu
es,w
het
her
or
not
gr
oun
d or
pel
let
186
.86
478
.91
1,18
0.7
229
2.0
516
.64%
36.2
8%
4.48
%0
.03
6%
N
100
119
Du
rum
wh
eat
(exc
l. se
ed fo
r so
win
g)0
185.
08
81.
148
1.14
0_*
_*0
10%
Y
40
210
Milk
pow
der
not
exc
eedi
ng
1.5%
fat
30.5
610
8.6
321
7.0
678
.07
43.1
5%32
.46
%21
.41%
0.0
325
%Y
210
69
0Fo
od p
repa
rati
ons
nes
0.8
271
168
.44
70.1
910
.33%
21.5
1%17
.69
%0
8%
N
80
610
Gra
pes,
fre
sh0
50.0
522
3.73
50.0
50
28.5
2%27
.79
%0
25%
Y
230
99
0A
nim
al f
eed
prep
arat
ion
s n
es1.
5750
.21
165.
1548
.64
50.1
3%25
.12%
36.7
9%
020
%Y
190
110
Prep
of
cere
als,
flou
r,st
arch
/m
ilk f
infa
nt
use
,pu
t u
p f
reta
il sa
le0
.38
67.
834
.32
33.9
46
9%
19.5
4%12
.49
%0
8%
N
100
610
Rice
in t
he
hu
sk (
padd
y or
ro
ugh
)0
.16
29.7
66
2.3
29.6
176
.29
%35
.49
%43
.70
%0
9%
N
910
11G
inge
r : N
eith
er c
rush
ed n
or
grou
nd
10.9
648
.06
40.0
629
.1_*
47.6
7%_*
0.0
66
%N
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
88
9.3 MACHINERY (HS 84)
68 machinery items represent a total trade potential of USD 1.9 billion. So 20% of the 335 items considered represent 9% of the total trade potential of USD 21.9 billion. In 2014 India exported a mere USD 26 million worth of HS 84 products to Pakistan, whereas world exports of HS 84 by India amounted to USD 8 billion and world imports to Pakistan amounted to USD 2.6 billion.
24 items out of these 68 have high potential CAGR values associated with them. These high potential CAGR items exhibit a total trade potential of USD 746 million.
17 out of the 24 machinery items have bilateral RCAs that exceed unity. Therefore 70% of high potential machinery items are being exported to Pakistan by India to a “disproportionate” extent, suggesting that Indian products have found a niche in the Pakistani market. High potential HS codes at the 4-digit level include HS 8421 (Centrifuges, incl. centrifugal dryers), HS 8422 (Dish-washing machines) and HS 8431 (Machinery parts).
11 of these 24 items are on Pakistan’s negative list for India. All of these items are also on Pakistan’s sensitive list under SAFTA, in addition to 16 other items on the sensitive list. USD 963 million worth of trade potential lies within the 27 machinery items placed on Pakistan’s sensitive list, whereas the negative list items account for USD 497 million worth of trade potential. This suggests that Pakistan’s protectionist policies may play a central role in containing Indian imports of HS 84 items.
In summation, 35% of these high potential Indian machinery items have experienced growth in Indian world exports and Pakistan world imports without accompanying growth in India-Pakistan trade. However, once again 70% of these items are already being exported into Pakistan at a disproportionately high rate suggesting unusually fertile Pakistani markets for these Indian goods. 45% of these items are on Pakistan’s negative list for India.
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
89
TOP
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
IND
IAN
MA
CH
INER
Y E
XPO
RTS
TO
PA
KIS
TAN
HS
cod
ePr
od
uct
lab
elIn
dia
20
14
Exp
ort
s to
Pa
k
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d E
xpo
rt
Ind
ia 2
014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Ind
ia-P
ak
CA
GR
Pak
Imp
ort
C
AG
R
Ind
ia
Exp
ort
C
AG
R
Bila
tera
l R
CA
Ap
plie
d
Tari
ffSe
nsi
tive
list
84
198
9M
ach
iner
y,pl
ant/
labo
rato
ry
equ
ip f
tre
at o
f m
at b
y ch
ange
of
tem
p n
es0
.58
101.
2814
5.9
510
0.7
45.1
7%10
.98
%11
.85%
0.8
4Y
Y
84
09
99
Part
s fo
r di
esel
an
d se
mi-
dies
el e
ngi
nes
0.0
18
0.4
958
4.9
18
0.4
9-8
.98
%7.
68
%14
.57%
0Y
Y
84
148
0A
ir o
r ga
s co
mpr
esso
rs,
hoo
ds0
.24
79.2
327.
1878
.96
5.17
%5.
77%
36.3
1%0
.15
15%
Y
84
818
0Ta
ps, c
ocks
, val
ves
and
sim
ilar
appl
ian
ces,
nes
0.1
76
8.8
871
7.6
76
8.7
1-2
.15%
8.8
0%
18.3
0%
0.0
5Y
Y
84
2230
Mac
h f
fil/c
los/
seal
/etc
.btl
e/ca
n/b
ox/ b
ag/c
tnr
nes
,mac
h f
ae
ratg
bev
1.25
63.
449
6.5
62.
1949
.71%
17.3
3%23
.18
%2.
745%
N
84
314
3Pa
rts
of b
orin
g or
sin
kin
g m
ach
iner
y, w
het
her
or
not
se
lf-p
rope
lled
0.2
46
0.8
917
0.4
60
.65
116
.89
%8
.72%
41.9
4%0
.35%
N
84
119
9Pa
rts
of g
as t
urb
ines
nes
010
2.6
957
.75
57.7
50
11.2
4%19
.22%
05%
N
84
159
0Pa
rts
of a
ir c
ondi
tion
ing
mac
hin
es0
57.3
771
.88
57.3
7-7
6.2
4%12
.48
%17
.02%
0Y
Y
84
09
91
Part
s fo
r sp
ark-
ign
itio
n t
ype
engi
nes
nes
056
.97
283.
3456
.97
019
.39
%11
.64%
0Y
Y
84
798
9M
ach
ines
& m
ech
anic
al
appl
ian
ces
nes
hav
ing
indi
vidu
al f
un
ctio
ns
1.75
54.1
934
4.14
52.4
527
.41%
4.59
%18
.56
%1.
07
5%N
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
90
9.4 VEHICLES OTHER THAN RAILWAY, TRAMWAY (HS 87)
16 HS 87 items at the 6-digit HS code level represent a collective trade potential of USD 1.1 billion. So 5% of the total products analysed represent 5 % of the total trade potential for the 335 items. In 2014 Indian exports of these 16 items to Pakistan came out to a mere USD 90,000, with Indian exports to the world of these items amounting to USD 12.1 billion and Pakistani imports from the world amounting to USD 1.1 billion.
14 out of these 16 items show high potential CAGR values, suggesting that almost all of these items have positive trends in global Indian exports and global Pakistani imports that have not encompassed India-Pakistan trade. These 14 items predictably represent the bulk of the trade potential for HS 87 products: USD 1 billion.
None of these items have an RCA exceeding unity, which is understandable given the very low exports of these items by India to Pakistan and high exports of these items to the world. High potential HS codes include HS 8703 (Cars) and HS 8704 (Trucks).
15 of these items are on Pakistan’s negative list and all of them are on Pakistan’s sensitive list under SAFTA. The 15 negative list items represent USD 1 billion worth of trade potential. This seems to be the primary factor that has discouraged India auto exports to Pakistan, since all other factors seem to be conducive to trade in HS 84 items.
In summation, 88% of these items have experienced healthy growth in Indian world exports and Pakistani world imports without commensurate growth in India-Pakistan trade. None of these items are currently exported by India to Pakistan at a disproportionately high rate. Almost all of these items are on Pakistan’s negative list, which explains both the high potential CAGR items and the lack of items with bilateral RCAs>1.
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
91
TOPHIGHPOTENTIALINDIANVEH
ICLESOTH
ERTHANRAILWAY,TRAMWAYTOPAKISTAN
HS
cod
ePr
od
uct
lab
elIn
dia
20
14
Exp
ort
s to
Pa
k
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d E
xpo
rt
Ind
ia 2
014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Ind
ia-P
ak
CA
GR
Pak
Imp
ort
C
AG
R
Ind
ia
Exp
ort
C
AG
R
Bila
tera
l R
CA
Ap
plie
d
Tari
ffSe
nsi
tive
list
870
321
Au
tom
obile
s w
rec
ipro
catg
pi
ston
en
gin
e di
spla
cg n
ot
mor
e th
an 1
00
0 c
c0
283.
221,
199
.77
283.
220
4.74
%12
.59
%0
yY
870
322
Au
tom
obile
s w
rec
ipro
catg
pi
ston
en
gin
e di
spla
cg >
10
00
cc
to 1
500
cc
0.0
121
2.44
3,23
6.8
021
2.43
-5.1
7%12
.34%
31.1
0%
0Y
Y
870
323
Au
tom
obile
s w
rec
ipro
catg
pi
ston
en
gin
e di
spla
cg >
15
00
cc
to 3
00
0 c
c0
162
835
.52
162
013
.11%
25.1
2%0
YY
871
120
Mot
orcy
cles
wit
h r
ecip
roca
tg
pist
on e
ngi
ne
disp
lacg
> 5
0
cc t
o 25
0 c
c0
73.8
31,
753.
4273
.83
05.
40%
23.2
3%0
YY
870
421
Die
sel p
ower
ed t
ruck
s w
ith
a
GV
W n
ot e
xcee
din
g fi
ve
ton
nes
06
3.43
271.
146
3.43
03.
56%
13.7
3%0
YY
871
410
Part
s an
d ac
cess
orie
s of
m
otor
cycl
es, i
ncl
. mop
eds,
n
.e.s
.0
56.0
211
6.1
956
.02
_*19
.61%
_*0
0%
Y
870
829
Part
s an
d ac
cess
orie
s of
bod
ies
nes
for
mot
or
veh
icle
s0
49.8
76
1.36
49.8
70
25.7
2%29
.92%
0Y
Y
870
89
9M
otor
veh
icle
par
ts n
es0
.08
45.4
32,
69
6.0
645
.35
30.2
0%
-8.2
7%19
.36
%0
YY
870
210
Die
sel p
ower
ed b
use
s w
ith
a
seat
ing
capa
city
of
> n
ine
pers
ons
039
.36
259
.52
39.3
60
7.49
%15
.72%
0Y
Y
870
422
Die
sel p
ower
d tr
uck
s w
a
GV
W e
xc fi
ve t
onn
es b
ut
not
ex
c tw
enty
ton
nes
036
.43
218
.736
.43
00
.21%
24.9
1%0
YY
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
92
9.5 Auto Sector39
20 Auto sector items at the 6-digit HS code level (all of them displayed below) represent a collective trade potential of USD 752 million. So 6% of the total products analysed represent 3% of the total trade potential for the 335 items. In 2014 Indian exports of these 16 items to Pakistan came out to a mere USD 31 million, with Indian exports to the world of these items amounting to USD 6 billion and Pakistani imports from the world amounting to USD 882 million.
13 out of these 20 items show high potential CAGR values, indicating that more than half of these items have positive trends in global Indian exports and global Pakistani imports that have not encompassed India-Pakistan trade. These 13 items represent 75% of the trade potential for auto-sector products: USD 566 million.
4 of these items have an RCA exceeding unity, suggesting that some of them weigh relatively higher in India’s export basket to Pakistan than in its export basket to the world. High potential HS codes include HS 4011 (New pneumatic tires of rubber) and HS 8409 (Trucks).
12 of these items are on Pakistan’s negative list and 17 of them are on Pakistan’s sensitive list under SAFTA. Three products are on neither list. The 12 negative list items represent USD 429 million worth of trade potential. This, again, seems to be the primary factor that has discouraged India auto exports to Pakistan, since all other factors support greater trade than is currently taking place.
In summation, a little over half of these items have shown high growth in Indian world exports and Pakistani world imports without similar growth in India-Pakistan trade. 20% of these items are already being exported to Pakistan by India at a disproportionately high rate. 12 of the items are on Pakistan’s negative lists and Pakistan’s high degree of protectionism for the auto-sector seems to have effectively deterred imports of Indian auto goods.
39The list of HS code items that fall within the auto sector category was obtained from the paper “Changing features of the Automobile Industry in Asia: Comparison of Production, Trade and Market Structure in Selected Countries” by Nag, Banerjee and Chatterjee (2007). There is an overlap between HS 87 items and the auto-sector.
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
93
TOP
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
IND
IA A
UTO
SEC
TOR
EX
POR
TS T
O P
AK
ISTA
N
HS
cod
ePr
od
uct
lab
elIn
dia
20
14
Exp
ort
s to
Pa
k
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d E
xpo
rt
Ind
ia 2
014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Ind
ia-P
ak
CA
GR
Pak
Imp
ort
C
AG
R
Ind
ia
Exp
ort
C
AG
R
Bila
tera
l R
CA
Ap
plie
d
Tari
ffSe
nsi
tive
list
4011
20Pn
eum
atic
tir
es n
ew o
f ru
bber
for
buse
s or
lorr
ies
26.8
619
0.1
857
5.42
163.
323.
03%
9.6
9%
8.6
6%
9.8
813
%Y
840
99
9Pa
rts
for
dies
el a
nd
sem
i-di
esel
en
gin
es0
.01
80
.49
584.
91
80
.49
-8.9
8%
7.6
8%
14.5
7%0
NY
841
590
Part
s of
air
con
diti
onin
g m
ach
ines
057
.37
71.8
857
.37
-76
.24%
12.4
8%
17.0
2%0
NY
840
99
1Pa
rts
for
spar
k-ig
nit
ion
typ
e en
gin
es n
es0
56.9
728
3.34
56.9
70
19.3
9%
11.6
4%0
NY
848
310
Tran
smis
sion
sh
afts
an
d cr
anks
, in
clu
din
g ca
m s
haf
ts
and
cran
k sh
afts
050
.17
255.
69
50.1
70
29.5
8%
22.2
4%0
NY
870
829
Part
s an
d ac
cess
orie
s of
bod
ies
nes
for
mot
or
veh
icle
s0
49.8
76
1.36
49.8
70
25.7
2%29
.92%
0N
Y
870
89
9M
otor
veh
icle
par
ts n
es0
.08
45.4
32,
69
6.0
645
.35
30.2
0%
-8.2
7%19
.36
%0
.01
NY
848
210
Bear
ings
, bal
l0
.14
38.4
558
.38
38.3
125
.80
%7.
14%
6.3
8%
0.5
5%N
841
430
Com
pres
sors
of
a ki
nd
use
d in
ref
rige
rati
ng
equ
ipm
ent
0.3
313
2.24
32.8
932
.57
15.3
0%
9.5
2%8
.53%
2.11
5%N
842
139
Filt
erin
g or
pu
rify
ing
mac
hin
ery
and
appa
ratu
s fo
r ga
ses
nes
0.1
326
.36
104.
5826
.23
5.9
4%2.
93%
42.7
4%0
.26
16%
Y
841
391
Part
s of
pu
mps
for
liqu
id
wh
eth
er o
r n
ot fi
tted
wit
h a
m
easu
rg d
evic
e0
.01
22.8
329
0.8
922
.82
-11.
85%
6.6
5%21
.44%
0.0
113
%Y
841
330
Fuel
, lu
bric
atin
g or
coo
ling
med
ium
pu
mps
for
int
com
b pi
ston
en
gin
es0
19.4
112
4.6
419
.41
017
.37%
18.6
3%0
NY
4016
99
Art
icle
s of
vu
lcan
ised
ru
bber
n
es, o
ther
th
an h
ard
rubb
er1.
2619
.47
213
18.2
132
.59
%13
.69
%25
.27%
1.25
NY
4011
10Pn
eum
atic
tir
e n
ew o
f ru
bber
f m
otor
car
incl
st
atio
n w
agon
s&ra
cg c
ars
1.8
18.2
69
8.6
216
.46
-0.4
3%2.
19%
14.4
2%3.
87
25%
Y
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
94
TOP
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
IND
IA A
UTO
SEC
TOR
EX
POR
TS T
O P
AK
ISTA
N
HS
cod
ePr
od
uct
lab
elIn
dia
20
14
Exp
ort
s to
Pa
k
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d E
xpo
rt
Ind
ia 2
014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Ind
ia-P
ak
CA
GR
Pak
Imp
ort
C
AG
R
Ind
ia
Exp
ort
C
AG
R
Bila
tera
l R
CA
Ap
plie
d
Tari
ffSe
nsi
tive
list
4016
93
Gas
kets
, was
her
s an
d ot
her
se
als
of v
ulc
anis
ed r
ubb
er0
.02
15.4
86
7.6
115
.45
28.8
1%17
.67%
10.4
1%0
.08
NY
940
190
Part
s of
sea
ts o
ther
th
an
thos
e of
hea
din
g N
o 9
4.0
20
13.6
545
.35
13.6
50
19.3
0%
52.2
4%0
8%
N
851
220
Ligh
tin
g or
vis
ual
sig
nal
ling
equ
ipm
ent
nes
013
.38
57.8
613
.38
013
.12%
19.5
7%0
NY
870
88
0Sh
ock
abso
rber
s fo
r m
otor
ve
hic
les
011
.56
97.
4811
.56
034
.05%
29.3
5%0
NY
870
84
0Ta
nsm
issi
ons
for
mot
or
veh
icle
s0
10.7
533
1.22
10.7
50
74.9
6%
48.7
7%0
NY
841
459
Fan
s n
es0
.03
10.1
222
.97
10.0
94.
21%
18.3
9%
33.8
8%
0.2
923
%Y
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
95
9.6 IRON AND STEEL (HS 72, HS 73)
32 items within HS codes 72 and 73 at the 6-digit HS code level represent USD 1.2 billion worth of trade potential. India’s exports to Pakistan of these 32 items amounted to a very low USD 90,000 in 2014, whereas India’s world exports of the products equalled USD 5.1 billion and Pakistan’s imports amounted to USD 1.4 billion.
24 of these 32 items exhibit high potential CAGR values, suggesting that most of these iron and steel products have shown healthy growth in Indian world exports and Pakistan world imports but India’s exports to Pakistan have not shown similar growth. These 24 high potential CAGR items represent the bulk of the total iron and steel potential: USD 1 billion.
None of these items have a bilateral RCA exceeding unity, once again suggesting that iron and steel do not have a disproportionate share in India’s export basket to Pakistan. HS codes with high trade potential include HS 7208 (Flat-rolled products of iron, not clad) and HS 7210 (Flat-rolled products of iron, plated or coated).
16 of these 24 items are on Pakistan’s negative list, whereas the remaining 12 items are all on Pakistan’s sensitive list under SAFTA. The negative list items represent USD 722 million of the total trade potential.
In summation, 75% of these high potential iron and steel items have grown in Indian world exports and Pakistani world imports with very little or no growth in India-Pakistan trade. None of these items are exported to Pakistan at a disproportionately high rate. 66% of these items are on Pakistan negative list whereas all of the remaining items are on Pakistan’s sensitive list, suggesting that Pakistan’s protectionist policies in this case have worked.
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
96
TOP
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
IND
IAN
IRO
N A
ND
STE
EL E
XPO
RTS
TO
PA
KIS
TAN
HS
cod
ePr
od
uct
lab
elIn
dia
20
14
Exp
ort
s to
Pa
k
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d E
xpo
rt
Ind
ia 2
014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Ind
ia-P
ak
CA
GR
Pak
Imp
ort
C
AG
R
Ind
ia
Exp
ort
C
AG
R
Bila
tera
l R
CA
Ap
plie
d
Tari
ffSe
nsi
tive
list
7210
49Fl
at r
olle
d pr
od,i/
nas
,pla
ted
or c
oate
d w
ith
zi
nc,
>/=
60
0m
m w
ide,
nes
017
0.2
99
3.27
170
.20
7.9
9%
1.29
%0
YN
720
839
Hot
rol
l iro
n/s
teel
nes
, coi
l >
60
0m
m x
<3m
m0
153.
83
303.
68
153.
83
048
.72%
5.8
3%0
YN
720
838
Hot
rol
l iro
n/s
teel
nes
, coi
l >
60
0m
m x
3-4
.75m
m0
85.
2112
4.31
85.
210
97.
58%
28.6
8%
0Y
N
730
423
Dri
ll pi
pe, s
eam
less
, of
a ki
nd
use
d in
dri
llin
g fo
r oi
l or
gas,
of
ir0
67.
7776
.42
67.
770
55.5
0%
10.7
0%
015
%Y
7219
90
Flat
rol
led
prod
, sta
inle
ss
stee
l, 6
00
mm
or
mor
e w
ide,
n
es0
58.6
68
9.4
758
.66
-44.
37%
7.57
%30
.11%
0.0
15%
N
730
429
Cas
ings
,,tu
bin
g, d
rill
pipe
, fo
r oi
l dri
llin
g u
se0
58.0
458
.22
58.0
40
12.3
6%
16.0
3%0
20%
Y
720
916
Col
d ro
lled
iron
/ste
el, c
oils
>
60
0m
m x
1-3
mm
050
.96
53.5
850
.96
08
.34%
23.2
6%
0Y
N
7225
30Fl
at r
olle
d pr
od,a
s,o/
t st
ain
less
,in c
oils
,nfw
th
n
hr,
w>
/=6
00
mm
,nes
017
1.0
245
.98
45.9
80
180
.56
%34
.08
%0
5%N
730
89
0St
ruct
ure
s&pa
rts
of
stru
ctu
res,
i/s (
ex p
refa
b bl
dgs
of h
eadg
no.
940
6)
0.0
142
.52
418
.03
42.5
1-2
4.43
%22
.42%
16.5
1%0
.01
YY
7210
12Fl
at r
olld
pro
d,i/n
as,p
latd
or
coat
d w
ith
tin
,>/=
60
0m
m
wid
e,<
0.5
mm
th
k0
35.1
957
.735
.19
08
.96
%3.
32%
015
%Y
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
97
9.7 ORGANIC CHEMICALS (HS 29)
24 organic chemical items at the 6-digit HS code level represent USD 785 million worth of trade potential. In 2014 India reported USD 152 million worth of exports within these 24 items to Pakistan, with global Indian exports amounting to USD 4.2 billion and global Pakistani imports amounting to USD 1.2 billion.
5 items out of these 24 have high potential CAGR values associated with them, suggesting that most of these items have seen growth in global Indian exports, global Pakistani imports and Indian exports to Pakistan. The high potential CAGR items represent USD 283 million worth of trade potential.
16 of the 24 items have a bilateral RCA>1, which suggests that Pakistan is potentially important as a market for these organic chemical products. Items at the 4-digit HS code level with high trade potential include HS 2902 (Cyclic Hydrocarbons) and HS 2941 (Anti biotics).
6 of these items are on Pakistan’s negative list and three of these are also on Pakistan’s sensitive list under SAFTA. One other item is on Pakistan’s sensitive list. The negative list items represent a total trade potential of USD 173 million.
In summation, only 20% of these items have experienced growth in Indian world exports and Pakistan world imports without accompanying growth in India-Pakistan trade, suggesting that for the most part India-Pakistan trade has kept pace with India and Pakistan’s world trade in these items. Moreover, 67% of these items are already imported by Pakistan from India at a disproportionately high rate, indicating that Pakistani markets are good destinations for these high potential Indian goods. Only 25% of these organic chemical items are placed on Pakistan’s negative list.
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
98
TOP
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
IND
IAN
PH
AR
MA
CEU
TIC
AL
EXPO
RTS
TO
PA
KIS
TAN
HS
cod
ePr
od
uct
lab
elIn
dia
20
14
Exp
ort
s to
Pa
k
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d E
xpo
rt
Ind
ia 2
014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Ind
ia-P
ak
CA
GR
Pak
Imp
ort
C
AG
R
Ind
ia
Exp
ort
C
AG
R
Bila
tera
l R
CA
Ap
plie
d
Tari
ffSe
nsi
tive
list
290
243
P-xy
len
e11
3.6
634
9.3
41,
027
.79
235.
68
1.74
%3.
78%
13.9
3%23
.41
5%N
290
531
Ethy
len
e gl
ycol
(et
han
edio
l)0
.05
202.
91
87.
238
7.18
-13.
99
%-1
.90
%1.
09
%0
.11
0%
N
2941
90
An
tibi
otic
s n
es, i
n b
ulk
8.1
56
5.55
581.
84
57.4
12.7
5%6
.29
%18
.37%
2.9
7N
Y
2934
99
Nu
clei
c ac
ids
and
thei
r sa
lts,
w
het
her
or
not
ch
emic
ally
de
fin
ed; h
ete
3.18
53.6
638
2.0
350
.48
48.2
5%8
.29
%55
.44%
1.76
NN
2926
90
Nit
rile
-fu
nct
ion
com
pou
nds
, n
es0
.02
34.6
941
.76
34.6
724
.93%
0.1
6%
18.7
8%
0.1
5%N
2922
49A
min
o-ac
ids
nes
, an
d th
eir
este
rs; s
alts
th
ereo
f0
.59
29.4
56
8.8
328
.86
23.2
2%13
.78
%36
.87%
1.8
15%
N
2933
39H
eter
ocyc
lic c
ompd
s cn
tg a
n
un
fuse
d py
ridi
ne
rin
g in
th
e st
ruct
ure
,nes
5.8
30.3
232
3.8
824
.52
34.3
8%
10.6
3%36
.33%
3.79
6%
N
2929
10Is
ocya
nat
es0
.16
34.6
324
.324
.14
25.2
9%
6.7
5%16
.06
%1.
415%
N
2933
59H
eter
cycl
com
pds
cntg
py
rim
idin
rn
g/pi
pera
zin
e rn
g,n
es;n
ucl
eic
acid
&sa
1.15
22.8
317
9.9
21.6
97.
11%
7.0
9%
29.6
0%
1.35
11%
Y
290
511
Met
han
ol (
met
hyl a
lcoh
ol)
0.0
149
.821
.67
21.6
6_*
12.2
3%39
.00
%0
.08
5%N
SECTION IV: CONCLUSION
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
100
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
101
10.0 CONCLUSION
This study suggests that while considerable potential for trade expansion exists for both Pakistan and India post-NDMA, a host of factors ensure that India will be able to realize its trade potential whereas Pakistan will only realize a small fraction of the potential it currently possesses. A few central points regarding Pakistan-India trade normalization may help crystallize the findings of this study:
• India possesses very high potential for exports to Pakistan. Moreover, the Indian government offers substantive, consistent support to local producers in the form of subsidies, export support programs etc. to its already flourishing local industries. Indian industries therefore enjoy government support and economies of scale.
• Pakistan possesses considerable potential for exports to India. The Pakistani government offers little support to local industries, and is particularly weak when it comes to trade defense (the aforementioned challenges faced by the NTC, for instance). Pakistani industries therefore lack government support and are hence less able to defend its domestic market share.
• India has established deliberate and notoriously inflexible Non-Tariff Barriers which Pakistan lacks the resources to overcome to any appreciable degree. Pakistani exports will therefore face very serious resistance from Indian NTBs once trade is normalized.
• Pakistan has low Non-Tariff Barriers, most of them resulting from inefficiencies and a lack of resources, and also lacks proper enforcement of SPS standards. Indian exports will therefore face relatively little resistance from Pakistani NTBs once trade is normalized.
• Therefore,massivequantitiesofIndianproductsthatarecheaperthanlocalPakistaniproducts can easily enter Pakistan post-NDMA.On the other hand, low quantitiesof Pakistani products that will in many cases be less competitive than local Indian productswillenterIndiawithdifficultypost-NDMA.
This scenario will undoubtedly play out if Pakistan rushes to grant India NDMA given the current facts of Pakistan-India trade. The following measures must be decisively undertaken before granting India NDMA if the agreement is to be beneficial to both countries:
• India must agree to ease its Non-Tariff Barriers in substantive, quantifiable ways in order to level the playing field.
• Pakistan must build its capacity to support its exports and protect local industry from unfairly cheap imports.
• The exact details and time-frame of India’s promised concessions to Pakistan must be determined and considered before the granting of the NDMA.
• India’s concessions to Pakistan must be such that Pakistan receives fair access to the Indian market in line with the more favourable terms faced by other SAFTA countries such as Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
So far, the above-mentioned issues remain largely unaddressed. However, it is these very issues that need to be taken up if Pakistan and India are to transition smoothly to a mutually beneficial trade relationship. There is clearly considerable potential for trade on both sides, but an equitable realization of this potential requires several pressing problems to be resolved through the two countries’ cooperation.
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
102
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
103
Shown ahead are the opinions of Pakistani industries regarding Pakistan-India Trade normalization, and the perceived effects it may have on the local manufacturing industries. These submissions (including, but not limited to, interpretations, conclusions and recommendations) are solely reflective of the companies who have submitted the information, and do not reflect the findings of this report or the views of the Pakistan Business Council. The purpose of including these submissions is to allow for a wider range of viewpoints, broadening the reader’s perspective.
SECTION V: SECTORIAL PERSPECTIVES
ON PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
104
NOTE FROM GATRON (INDUSTRIES) LIMITEDThere are many items where fixed per kg or per mtr duty is imposed by India if it is higher than the ad valorem rate. When Pakistan is granting India NDMA status it must ensure that in case of non-sensitive products where a SAFTA rate of 5% is applicable the higher per kg or per mtr specific duty rate is not applied on imports from Pakistan.
TOP HIGH POTENTIAL INDIAN PHARMACEUTICAL EXPORTS TO PAKISTAN
H S Code DescriptionAd volarem
rateFixed rate Applicability
Woven fabrics obtained from high tenacity yarn of nylon or of polyester
5407.1011 Parachute fabrics 10% Rs 115/kgWhich ever
is higher
5407.6110Polyester shirting cont. 85% or more by weight of non textured polyester filament
10% Rs 150/kgWhich ever
is higher
Woven fabrics of synthetic staple fibre containing 85% or more by weight staple fibre
5512.1910 Dyed 10%Rs 42/sq meter
Which ever is higher
5513.3900 other woven fabrics 10% Rs 120/Kg or
Rs 30/sq meter
Which ever is higher
Duty drawback on deemed basis was given by the Indian Government across the board in many sectors, particularly the polyester fabric and polyester products, despite the fact that the Indian Government hardly receives any duty on the import of raw materials of these products. Over 80% of the requirement of all the intermediate and basic raw material is produced within India with hardly any imports, yet the drawback benefits are still given to the industry. As can be seen below the drawback on yarn is 3% of the value of yarn and the drawback of fabric is 3% of value of finished fabric where the fabric value is normally two or four times the value of yarn for the same weight/kg. Since there are hardly any imports into India of Polyester Yarn and Polyester Fibre, import duties on Polyester Fibre and yarn are not collected but the drawback on fabric in rupee terms is still higher than the drawback on yarn/fibre.
Such drawbacks are credited within 2 to 3 days of the exporter’s bank account after the execution of the export transaction, even before the receipt of the export proceeds from the foreign buyer.
The Indian side recently confirmed that the Duty Entitlement Pass Book (DEPB) scheme which had duty drawback on deemed basis had been discontinued since October 2011 and hence duty drawbacks by India are no longer available on a deemed basis. However, the Pakistani side should learn from their Indian counterparts if (as claimed by the Indian side) drawback on deemed basis is not available:
• Why, then, are drawback rates still as high as 3% - 4% on all Synthetic Fibre/Yarn/Fabric items? (Please see table below)
• Why is the Fabrics duty drawback ad valorem rate the same (i.e. 3% on Fabric value) as the drawback on Yarn, which results in a much higher per Kg drawback on Fabrics? The impact of the import duty on raw materials per kg on Fabrics will still more or less be the same as that on Yarn, as India hardly imports Polyester Filament Yarn (PFY). This implies that drawback is still on a deemed basis.
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
105
• Also the current drawback of PFY reflects deemed duty drawback as per the following working:
• Only 14% of total PTA consumption and 36% of MEG consumption in India is imported, so that 5% duty on PFY is collected on 14% of PTA quantity and 36% of MEG quantity – so the duty collected impact on raw materials is 24.64% [(14% x 0.86) + (36% x 0.35) = 24.64%]. Therefore the drawback should not be more than 1.23% which is 24.64% of the 5% duty on PTA/MEG.
• Moreover, since only 1% of PFY consumption is imported by India, the drawback on Fabrics (if not on deemed basis) should be the same per Kg as duty collected impact of 24.64% on PTA/MEG value (rather than Yarn or Fabric value) i.e. per Kg duty drawback on Filament Yarn and Fabric should be same.
As mentioned above, the Government of Pakistan as a policy does not provide deemed duty drawbacks to local industries due to financial constraints of the GOP, while the same is available across the board in India. Therefore the corresponding industry in Pakistan (e.g. Synthetic Yarn and Fabric) will not be able to export to India (due to the absence of deemed duty drawback) and will be competing with the tremendous exports by the Indian industry of that sector which receives deemed duty drawback.
In order to offset this, GOP should negotiate with India the right to impose corresponding Regulatory Duty without going through the Trade Defence procedures of Countervailing or Safeguard duty on those products where INDIA is giving deemed duty drawback, so that a hue and cry is not raised by local industries in Pakistan once trade with India opens up. (Particularly SMEs which neither have the resources or the expertise to file Anti-dumping Countervailing applications nor are capable of garnering the minimum number of applicants (industry strength) required for the same.
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
106
ANNEXURES
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
108
An
ne
xu
re A
: Lis
t o
f h
igh
po
ten
tia
l Pa
kist
an
i ex
po
rts
to In
dia
(4
38 it
em
s)H
IGH
PO
TEN
TIA
L PA
KIS
TAN
I EX
POR
TS T
O IN
DIA
HS
Co
de
Pro
du
ct la
bel
Pak
2014
Ex
po
rts
to In
dia
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Exp
ort
s
Pak
2014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Pak-
Ind
ia
CA
GR
Ind
ia
Imp
ort
C
AG
R
Pak
Exp
ort
C
AG
RB
ilate
ral
RC
ASe
nsi
tive
lis
tB
asic
Ta
riff
Para
Ta
riff
Ap
plie
d
Tari
ff
030
289
Fres
h o
r ch
illed
fish
, n.e
.s.
0.0
016
.46
19.9
816
.46
0%
_*_*
0.0
0Y
30%
1%31
030
389
Froz
en fi
sh, n
.e.s
.0
.00
3.56
5.21
3.56
0%
_*-6
.16
%0
.00
Y30
%6
%36
%
030
499
Froz
en fi
sh m
eat
wh
eth
er o
r n
ot m
ince
d (e
xcl.
swor
dfish
, too
thfi
sh a
nd
0.0
011
.32
10.4
210
.42
0%
60
.02%
91.
85%
0.0
0N
5%4
%9
%
030
559
Fish
nes
, dri
ed, w
het
her
or
not
sal
ted
but
not
sm
oked
0.0
04.
01
2.8
12.
81
0%
37.5
8%
-4.0
5%0
.00
N5%
0%
5%
030
616
Froz
en c
old-
wat
er s
hri
mps
an
d pr
awn
s0
.00
10.4
21.
711.
710
%_*
_*0
.00
Y30
%6
%36
040
210
Milk
pow
der
not
exc
eedi
ng
1.5%
fat
0.0
04.
195.
174.
190
%25
.57%
50.8
0%
0.0
0Y
60
%8
%6
8
040
229
Milk
an
d cr
eam
pow
der
swee
ten
ed
exce
edin
g 1.
5% f
at0
.00
2.13
1.6
51.
65
0%
44.9
8%
8.3
9%
0.0
0Y
30%
6%
36%
040
590
Fats
an
d oi
ls d
eriv
ed f
rom
milk
nes
0.0
82.
491.
311.
2320
.58
%-8
.97%
85.
72%
3.9
8Y
40
%7%
47%
040
90
0H
oney
, nat
ura
l0
.00
1.8
58
.30
1.8
50
%-3
.37%
9.8
3%0
.00
Y6
0%
8%
68
%
050
100
Hai
r, h
um
an, u
nw
orke
d w
ash
ed o
r sc
oure
d or
not
an
d w
aste
0.0
011
.50
1.53
1.53
0%
45.1
9%
77.2
3%0
.00
N5%
0%
5%
08
021
2A
lmon
ds,f
resh
or
drie
d,sh
elle
d or
pee
led
0.0
06
2.24
2.50
2.50
0%
13.3
3%9
0.3
4%0
.00
NRs
52/
kg4
%_
08
041
0D
ates
, fre
sh o
r dr
ied
63.
64
199
.45
79.9
816
.33
10.2
3%17
.74%
11.1
5%50
.13
N5%
0%
5%
08
045
0G
uav
as, m
ango
es a
nd
man
gost
een
s, f
resh
or
dri
ed0
.00
1.0
841
.72
1.0
80
%38
.04%
5.8
6%
0.0
0Y
30%
1%31
%
08
06
10G
rape
s, f
resh
0.0
09
.33
1.59
1.59
0%
24.0
7%19
.67%
0.0
0Y
30%
6%
36%
08
109
0Fr
uit
s, f
resh
nes
0.0
06
.28
3.71
3.71
*8
.74%
34.2
3%-9
.59
%0
.00
N5%
0%
5%
08
1310
Apr
icot
s, d
ried
0.0
012
.68
2.20
2.20
*47
.24%
12.5
4%20
.07%
0.0
0N
8%
0%
8%
90
230
Blac
k te
a (f
erm
ente
d)&
part
ly f
erm
entd
tea
in
pac
kage
s n
ot e
xcee
dg 3
kg
0.0
01.
69
4.0
01.
69
0%
-9.1
6%
28.1
1%0
.00
N8
%5%
13%
09
024
0Bl
ack
tea
(fer
men
ted)
& p
artl
y fe
rmen
ted
tea
in p
acka
ges
exce
edg
3 kg
0.0
042
.44
7.35
7.35
0%
4.9
8%
38.7
0%
0.0
0N
8%
11%
19%
09
042
1Fr
uit
s of
th
e ge
nu
s C
apsi
cum
or
of t
he
gen
us
Pim
enta
: D
ried
, nei
ther
cru
shed
n
or g
rou
nd
0.0
01.
103.
99
1.10
0%
_*-1
1.34
%0
.00
N8
%5%
13%
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
109
09
09
61
Seed
s of
an
ise,
bad
ian
, car
away
or
fen
nel
; ju
nip
er b
erri
es :
Nei
ther
cru
shed
nor
gr
oun
d0
.38
20.9
11.
67
1.29
189
.06
%_*
93.
06
%14
.22
N8
%5%
13%
09
109
9Sp
ices
nes
0.4
13.
579
.84
3.17
22.7
8%
31.1
6%
2.70
%2.
59N
8%
5%13
%
100
590
Mai
ze (
corn
) n
es0
.00
6.2
72.
04
2.0
4-6
8.3
0%
33.6
0%
67.
09
%0
.00
Y50
%2%
52%
100
630
Rice
, sem
i-mill
ed o
r w
hol
ly m
illed
, w
het
her
or
not
pol
ish
ed o
r gl
azed
0.0
01.
431,
89
5.37
1.43
0%
51.1
3%11
.00
%0
.00
Y70
%9
%79
%
110
100
Wh
eat
or m
eslin
flou
r0
.00
1.43
195.
351.
430
%-0
.74%
14.4
2%0
.00
Y30
%1%
31%
110
812
Mai
ze (
corn
) st
arch
0.0
02.
66
10.7
42.
66
0%
23.0
5%23
.01%
0.0
0N
8%
18%
26%
120
740
Sesa
mu
m s
eeds
, wh
eth
er o
r n
ot b
roke
n12
.36
106
.17
65.
4053
.04
75.9
5%48
.17%
12.3
1%11
.91
Y30
%6
%36
%
1211
90
Plan
ts &
pts
of p
lan
ts(i
ncl
sed
&fr
uit
) u
sd in
ph
arm
,per
f,in
sect
etc
nes
1.8
46
8.5
014
.00
12.1
65.
53%
17.3
6%
20.6
1%8
.28
N5%
4%
9%
130
232
Mu
cila
ges
& t
hic
ken
ers
deri
ved
from
locu
st
bean
s &
see
ds o
r gu
ar s
eeds
0.0
45.
69
72.0
15.
65
-8.0
4%32
.51%
63.
03%
0.0
4N
5%18
%23
%
130
239
Mu
cila
ges&
thic
ken
ers
nes
,mod
ifid
or
not
,der
ivd
from
veg
etab
le p
rodu
cts
0.0
311
.03
3.9
03.
87
7.55
%10
.33%
51.5
6%
0.4
7N
5%18
%23
%
140
110
Bam
boos
use
d pr
imar
ily fo
r pl
aiti
ng
0.0
015
.52
1.50
1.50
0%
58.6
1%19
.79
%0
.00
N5%
4%
9%
140
490
Vege
tabl
e pr
odu
cts
nes
0.0
02.
7331
.41
2.73
0%
13.2
9%
78.8
1%0
.00
N5%
6%
11%
1516
20Ve
g fa
ts &
oils
&fr
acti
ons
hydr
ogen
atd,
inte
r/re
-est
erifi
d,et
c,re
f'd/n
ot0
.00
9.5
411
5.27
9.5
40
%-1
3.32
%8
.36
%0
.00
N8
%12
%20
%
170
199
Refi
ned
can
e or
bee
t su
gar,
sol
id, w
ith
out
flav
ouri
ng
or c
olou
rin
g m
atte
r0
.00
1.58
289
.21
1.58
0%
25.7
7%35
.06
%0
.00
Y10
0%
7%10
7%
170
230
Glu
cose
&gl
uco
se s
yru
p n
t cn
tg f
ruct
/cn
tg
in d
ry s
tate
<20
% b
y w
t fr
uct
0.0
01.
7632
.31
1.76
0%
20.4
2%50
.87%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%
170
310
Can
e m
olas
ses
0.0
63.
84
15.1
83.
79_*
-20
.01%
-13.
76%
0.2
3N
5%
1,0
00
pe
r to
nn
e C
VD
0%
170
490
Suga
r co
nfe
ctio
ner
y n
es (
incl
udg
wh
ite
choc
olat
e),n
ot c
onta
ing
coco
a0
.21
15.2
748
.61
15.0
617
5.8
1%14
.80
%21
.47%
0.2
8N
5%18
%23
%
190
110
Prep
of
cere
als,
flou
r,st
arch
/milk
f in
fan
t u
se,p
ut
up
f re
tail
sale
0.0
05.
80
8.1
45.
80
0%
11.4
0%
54.7
9%
0.0
0N
50%
17%
67%
190
190
Mal
t ex
trac
t&fo
od p
rep
of C
h 1
9 <
50%
co
coa&
hd
040
1 to
040
4 <
10
% c
ocoa
0.0
52.
86
2.25
2.21
41.4
2%13
.62%
24.7
9%
1.34
N5%
18%
23%
190
219
Un
cook
ed p
asta
, not
stu
ffed
or
oth
erw
ise
prep
ared
, nes
0.0
510
.74
11.3
410
.70
31.4
9%
13.5
4%19
.61%
0.2
6N
5%11
%16
%
190
410
Prep
food
s ob
tain
d by
th
e sw
ellg
o r
oast
g of
cer
eal o
cer
eal p
rodu
cts
0.0
02.
06
2.32
2.0
6_*
-15.
96
%41
.49
%0
.03
N5%
18%
23%
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
110
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
PAK
ISTA
NI E
XPO
RTS
TO
IND
IA
HS
Co
de
Pro
du
ct la
bel
Pak
2014
Ex
po
rts
to In
dia
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Exp
ort
s
Pak
2014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Pak-
Ind
ia
CA
GR
Ind
ia
Imp
ort
C
AG
R
Pak
Exp
ort
C
AG
RB
ilate
ral
RC
ASe
nsi
tive
lis
tB
asic
Ta
riff
Para
Ta
riff
Ap
plie
d
Tari
ff
190
531
Swee
t bi
scu
its
0.0
25.
4120
.57
5.39
_*19
.53%
27.2
2%0
.06
N5%
7%12
%
190
590
Com
mu
nio
n w
afer
s,em
pty
cach
ets
f ph
arm
use
&si
m p
rod&
bake
rs' w
ares
nes
0.0
17.
67
19.5
87.
66
-18
.72%
15.1
3%38
.76
%0
.03
Y30
%9
%39
%
200
290
Tom
atoe
s n
es,p
repa
red
or p
rese
rved
oth
th
an b
y vi
neg
ar o
r ac
etic
aci
d0
.00
8.0
21.
181.
180
%14
.87%
31.3
4%0
.00
Y30
%14
%4
4%
200
799
Jam
s,fr
uit
jelli
es,f
ruit
/nu
t pu
rée&
past
e,ck
d pr
ep,s
uga
rd,s
wee
ten
d/n
ot0
.00
4.48
3.23
3.23
41.4
2%18
.78
%24
.29
%0
.04
N5%
11%
16%
200
911
Ora
nge
juic
e,u
nfe
rmen
td&
not
sp
irit
d,w
het
her
not
su
gard
sw
eet,
froz
en0
.74
5.15
10.3
74.
413.
35%
10.3
7%8
.97%
4.5
1N
5%11
%16
%
200
979
App
le ju
ice,
un
ferm
ente
d, B
rix
valu
e >
20
at
20
°C, w
het
her
or
not
con
t0
.00
6.9
43.
94
3.9
40
%30
.64%
67.
99
%0
.00
N5%
11%
16%
200
98
9Ju
ice
of f
ruit
or
vege
tabl
es, u
nfe
rmen
ted,
w
het
her
or
not
con
tain
ing
adde
d su
gar
or
oth
er0
.00
7.53
10.8
37.
530
%_*
_*0
.00
N5%
11%
16%
200
99
0M
ixtu
res
of ju
ices
un
ferm
entd
&n
ot s
piri
td
wh
eth
er o
not
su
gard
o s
wee
t0
.00
2.0
54.
142.
05
0%
4.9
9%
31.1
9%
0.0
0N
5%11
%16
%
210
390
Sau
ces
and
prep
arat
ion
s n
es a
nd
mix
ed
con
dim
ents
an
d m
ixed
sea
son
ings
0.0
08
.89
1.0
31.
03
0%
22.8
4%46
.31%
0.0
0N
5%14
%19
%
220
210
Wat
ers
incl
min
eral
&ae
ratd
,con
tain
g su
gar
o sw
eete
ng
mat
ter
o fl
avou
rd0
.00
4.8
82.
202.
200
%2.
83%
30.9
0%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%
220
720
Ethy
l alc
ohol
an
d ot
her
spi
rits
, den
atu
red,
of
any
str
engt
h0
.66
86
.33
102.
94
85.
67
-9.2
1%-1
.61%
26.8
3%0
.40
N5%
18%
23%
230
120
Flou
r,m
eal&
pelle
t of
fish
,cru
st,m
ol/o
th
aqu
a in
vert
,un
fit
hu
man
con
s0
.00
2.35
17.4
42.
350
%-2
4.0
8%
84.
91%
0.0
0N
5%0
%5%
230
99
0A
nim
al f
eed
prep
arat
ion
s n
es0
.00
245.
06
6.5
16
.51
0%
23.4
8%
47.0
2%0
.00
Y30
%1%
31%
240
120
Toba
cco,
un
man
ufa
ctu
red,
par
tly
or
wh
olly
ste
mm
ed o
r st
ripp
ed0
.01
15.8
98
.28
8.2
70
%18
.17%
-1.3
8%
0.0
6Y
30%
5%35
%
250
100
Salt
(in
clu
dg t
able
sal
t&de
nat
urd
sal
t) p
ure
so
diu
m c
hlo
ride
&se
a w
ater
1.50
3.34
15.7
91.
84
24.9
0%
12.4
0%
16.3
5%5.
97
N5%
0%
5%
250
510
Silic
a sa
nds
an
d qu
artz
san
ds0
.00
16.9
27.
437.
430
%17
.92%
68
.62%
0.0
0N
5%4
%9
%
250
810
Ben
ton
ite
0.0
05.
09
1.11
1.11
0%
19.4
3%55
.37%
0.0
0N
5%4
%9
%
250
840
Oth
er c
lays
(exc
exp
ande
d cl
ays
of 6
8.0
6)
0.0
118
.50
1.55
1.54
_*12
.23%
26.8
1%0
.41
N5%
4%
9%
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
111
2510
20N
atu
ral c
alci
um
ph
osph
ates
, alu
min
um
ca
lciu
m p
hos
phat
es e
tc, g
rou
nd
0.0
042
4.16
1.21
1.21
0%
22.3
5%31
.80
%0
.00
N5%
4%
9%
2511
10N
atu
ral b
ariu
m s
ulp
hat
e (b
aryt
es)
0.0
42.
109
.09
2.0
629
.36
%21
.31%
99
.72%
0.2
9N
5%4
%9
%
2515
12M
arbl
e &
tra
vert
ine,
mer
ely
cut,
by s
awin
g or
oth
erw
ise
into
blo
cks
etc
0.0
622
7.17
43.2
543
.19
14.6
8%
34.0
6%
27.0
4%0
.09
Y10
%5%
15%
2523
29Po
rtla
nd
cem
ent
nes
35.9
159
.62
502.
1423
.71
23.4
9%
67.
30%
33.1
4%4
.51
N5%
4%
9%
2523
90
Hyd
rau
lic c
emen
ts n
es0
.01
7.73
7.9
97.
72-3
2.75
%26
.71%
3.48
%0
.10
N5%
4%
9%
2526
20N
atu
ral s
teat
ite,
cru
shed
or
pow
dere
d0
.05
2.11
15.9
32.
06
-0.4
2%25
.47%
71.5
9%
0.1
9N
5%4
%9
%
2529
21Fl
uor
spar
, con
tain
ing
by w
eigh
t 9
7% o
r le
ss o
f ca
lciu
m fl
uor
ide
0.1
68
.72
2.34
2.18
68
.92%
17.4
7%6
5.0
6%
4.2
3N
5%4
%9
%
260
111
Iron
ore
s&co
nce
ntr
ates
,oth
th
an r
oast
ed
iron
pyr
ites
,non
-agg
lom
erat
ed0
.00
632
.64
2.6
02.
60
0%
28.0
4%55
.74%
0.0
5N
10%
7%17
%
2610
00
Ch
rom
ium
ore
s an
d co
nce
ntr
ates
0.2
149
.28
87.
1749
.07
26.5
6%
58.5
8%
15.3
6%
0.1
5N
3%17
%20
%
2619
00
Slag
, dro
ss, (
exc
gran
ula
ted
slag
) sc
alin
g &
ot
her
was
te e
tc0
.00
2.44
6.8
72.
440
%47
.41%
79.6
1%0
.00
N5%
13%
18%
270
90
0Pe
trol
eum
oils
an
d oi
ls o
btai
ned
fro
m
bitu
min
ous
min
eral
s, c
rude
0.0
013
5,8
26.2
022
2.9
122
2.9
10
%18
.64%
36.9
8%
0.0
0N
5%0
%5%
2710
12Li
ght
petr
oleu
m o
ils a
nd
prep
arat
ion
s0
.00
929
.45
1.44
1.44
0%
_*_*
0.0
0N
5%15
%20
%
2839
90
Silic
ates
of
met
als
nes
; com
mer
cial
alk
ali
met
al s
ilica
tes
0.0
023
.94
2.23
2.23
0%
35.2
6%
22.0
4%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
2917
36Te
reph
thal
ic a
cid
and
its
salt
s0
.00
978
.08
36.5
636
.56
*36
.14%
47.7
5%10
.90
%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
300
310
Pen
icill
ins
or s
trep
tom
ycin
s an
d th
eir
deri
vati
ves,
form
ula
ted,
in b
ulk
0.0
01.
64
5.9
41.
64
0%
-7.2
6%
102.
98
%0
.00
N5%
7%12
%
300
339
Hor
mon
es n
es,f
orm
ula
td,n
ot c
ntg
an
tibi
otic
s,in
bu
lk,o
/t c
ontr
acep
tive
s0
.00
5.9
828
.56
5.9
80
%13
.45%
63.
51%
0.0
0N
5%7%
12%
300
390
Med
icam
ents
nes
, for
mu
late
d, in
bu
lk0
.12
39.4
712
.09
11.9
714
5.24
%11
.02%
3.79
%0
.61
Y10
%7%
17%
300
410
Pen
icill
ins
or s
trep
tom
ycin
s an
d th
eir
deri
vati
ves,
in d
osag
e0
.00
19.3
210
.90
10.9
00
%27
.40
%40
.33%
0.0
0Y
10%
7%17
%
300
420
An
tibi
otic
s n
es, i
n d
osag
e0
.00
24.7
012
.87
12.8
70
%13
.09
%25
.38
%0
.00
Y10
%11
%21
%
300
439
Hor
mon
es n
es, n
ot c
onta
inin
g an
tibi
otic
s,
in d
osag
e,o/
t co
ntr
acep
tive
0.0
073
.05
21.5
821
.58
0%
23.1
9%
44.3
6%
0.0
0N
10%
11%
21%
300
450
Vit
amin
s an
d th
eir
deri
vati
ves,
in d
osag
e0
.00
5.28
4.76
4.76
0%
7.49
%10
.95%
0.0
0N
10%
11%
21%
300
490
Med
icam
ents
nes
, in
dos
age
0.0
356
6.2
58
6.5
78
6.5
44.
94%
15.6
8%
9.9
6%
0.0
2N
5%7%
12%
300
510
Dre
ssin
gs a
nd
oth
er a
rtic
les
hav
ing
an
adh
esiv
e la
yer
0.0
010
.82
1.8
61.
86
0%
10.5
2%-7
.07%
0.0
0N
5%11
%16
%
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
112
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
PAK
ISTA
NI E
XPO
RTS
TO
IND
IA
HS
Co
de
Pro
du
ct la
bel
Pak
2014
Ex
po
rts
to In
dia
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Exp
ort
s
Pak
2014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Pak-
Ind
ia
CA
GR
Ind
ia
Imp
ort
C
AG
R
Pak
Exp
ort
C
AG
RB
ilate
ral
RC
ASe
nsi
tive
lis
tB
asic
Ta
riff
Para
Ta
riff
Ap
plie
d
Tari
ff
300
590
Dre
ssin
gs&
sim
ilar
arti
cles
,impr
eg o
r co
atd
or p
acka
gd fo
r m
d u
se,n
es0
.00
15.5
112
.07
12.0
70
%8
.66
%28
.10
%0
.00
N5%
11%
16%
320
416
Reac
tive
dye
s an
d pr
epar
atio
ns
base
d th
ereo
n0
.23
41.0
53.
353.
1213
9.0
1%15
.85%
31.1
9%
4.4
0Y
8%
18%
26%
320
417
Syn
thet
ic o
rgan
ic p
igm
ents
an
d pr
epar
atio
ns
base
d th
ereo
n0
.00
81.
581.
791.
79_*
18.3
9%
11.6
1%0
.04
Y10
%16
%26
%
320
810
Pain
ts&
varn
ish
es b
ased
on
po
lyes
ters
,dis
pers
ed in
a n
on-a
queo
us
med
ium
0.0
031
.77
19.2
819
.28
0%
20.3
3%12
.81%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%
320
89
0Pa
ints
& v
arn
i bas
ed o
n p
olym
ers
diss
olv
in
a n
on a
queo
us
solv
nes
0.0
09
2.6
97.
297.
290
%16
.91%
59.8
4%0
.00
N10
%19
%29
%
320
910
Pain
ts&
varn
ish
es b
asd
on a
cryl
ic/v
inyl
po
ly,d
spr
in a
n a
queo
us
med
ium
0.0
012
.75
4.20
4.20
0%
11.3
5%73
.49
%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
320
99
0Pa
ints
&va
rnis
hes
bas
ed o
n
poly
mer
s,di
sper
sed
in a
n a
queo
us
med
ium
,nes
0.0
034
.67
1.18
1.18
0%
8.2
2%59
.63%
0.0
0N
10%
19%
29%
3215
19Pr
inti
ng
ink,
nes
0.0
013
1.0
71.
94
1.9
40
%16
.66
%57
.97%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%
330
300
Perf
um
es a
nd
toile
t w
ater
s0
.00
68
.85
2.47
2.47
0%
27.2
0%
10.5
5%0
.00
Y10
%19
%29
%
330
420
Eye
mak
e-u
p pr
epar
atio
ns
0.0
010
.20
1.46
1.46
*16
.65%
23.6
1%0
.21%
0.0
0Y
10%
19%
29%
330
499
Beau
ty o
r m
ake-
up
prep
arat
ion
s n
es;
sun
scre
en o
r su
n t
an p
repa
rati
ons
0.0
08
7.72
5.9
45.
94
0%
36.0
6%
19.5
7%0
.00
Y10
%19
%29
%
330
510
Hai
r sh
ampo
os0
.00
7.0
81.
04
1.0
40
%-7
.68
%10
.23%
0.0
0Y
10%
19%
29%
330
590
Hai
r pr
epar
atio
ns,
nes
0.0
030
.15
1.9
91.
99
0%
10.6
4%8
.10
%0
.00
Y10
%19
%29
%
330
790
Perf
um
ery,
cos
met
ic o
r to
ilet
prep
arat
ion
s,
nes
0.0
07.
88
2.14
2.14
0%
25.8
6%
26.3
9%
0.0
0Y
10%
19%
29%
340
111
Toile
t so
ap&
prep
,sh
aped
;pap
ers&
non
wov
en
s im
preg
wit
h s
oap
toile
t u
se0
.00
8.7
61.
80
1.8
00
%4.
04%
-10
.50
%0
.00
Y10
%19
%29
%
340
119
Soap
&or
gn s
urf
pr
ep,s
hap
d,n
es;p
aper
s&n
onw
oven
s im
preg
w s
oap/
prep
,nes
0.0
02.
67
17.4
12.
67
0%
-12.
52%
33.1
1%0
.00
Y10
%19
%29
%
340
120
Soap
nes
0.0
032
.08
3.72
3.72
0%
14.8
8%
37.3
1%0
.00
N5%
19%
24%
340
211
An
ion
ic s
urf
ace-
acti
ve a
gen
ts0
.01
75.3
01.
491.
49-3
.78
%33
.22%
34.4
9%
0.2
5N
5%19
%24
%
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
113
340
220
Surf
ace-
acti
ve p
rep,
was
hin
g &
cle
anin
g pr
ep p
ut
up
for
reta
il sa
le0
.00
31.4
35.
465.
460
%24
.86
%8
2.9
6%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%
340
290
Surf
ace-
acti
ve p
repa
rati
ons,
was
hin
g an
d cl
ean
ing
prep
arat
ion
s, n
es0
.00
65.
351.
151.
14_*
13.4
0%
41.3
7%0
.22
N5%
19%
24%
350
300
Gel
atin
an
d ge
lati
n d
eriv
s; is
ingl
ass;
glu
es
of a
nim
al o
rigi
n, n
es0
.00
27.8
06
.86
6.8
6*
-12.
94%
30.1
3%9
.86
%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
380
89
1In
sect
icid
es0
.00
336
.83
5.19
5.19
0%
6.9
9%
54.0
7%0
.00
N10
%19
%29
%
380
99
1Fi
nis
hg
agen
ts,d
ye c
arri
ers&
oth
pr
ep,n
es,f
or u
se in
th
e te
xtile
indu
st0
.19
56.2
73.
81
3.6
26
7.51
%16
.37%
9.7
9%
3.0
6N
5%18
%23
%
3815
12Su
ppor
td c
atal
ysts
,w p
reci
ous
met
al/
com
pds
ther
eof
as t
he
acti
v su
bs0
.00
156
.56
2.55
2.55
0%
23.2
4%5.
98
%0
.00
N10
%16
%26
%
3824
90
Ch
emic
al/a
llied
indu
stry
pre
para
tion
s/pr
ods
nes
0.0
045
7.8
85.
535.
53*
-11.
49%
18.8
9%
11.2
0%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%
390
311
Poly
styr
ene,
exp
ansi
ble
0.0
05.
69
5.72
5.6
90
%4.
73%
23.7
9%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%
390
319
Poly
styr
ene
nes
0.1
934
.83
52.2
534
.63
42.7
5%21
.52%
20.8
5%0
.23
N5%
18%
23%
390
410
Poly
viny
l ch
lori
de, n
ot m
ixed
wit
h a
ny
oth
er s
ubs
tan
ces
12.3
717
4.9
418
.27
5.9
042
.50
%14
.51%
2.44
%4
2.6
5N
5%18
%23
%
390
69
0A
cryl
ic p
olym
ers
nes
, in
pri
mar
y fo
rms
0.4
627
7.16
3.9
53.
5028
.86
%18
.99
%34
.24%
7.27
N5%
13%
18%
390
799
Poly
este
rs n
es, i
n p
rim
ary
form
s0
.00
178
.76
6.4
66
.46
0%
14.9
4%-4
.47%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%
3910
00
Silic
ones
in p
rim
ary
form
s0
.10
158
.40
2.6
12.
51_*
17.7
7%8
5.56
%2.
29N
10%
16%
26%
3915
10Po
lyet
hyle
ne
was
te a
nd
scra
p0
.05
1.12
6.3
71.
07
_*-9
.55%
21.6
6%
0.4
5Y
8%
18%
26%
3915
90
Plas
tics
was
te a
nd
scra
p n
es0
.31
103.
7023
.14
22.8
3_*
12.5
8%
39.0
2%0
.84
Y8
%14
%21
%
3917
21Tu
bes,
pip
es a
nd
hos
es, r
igid
; of
poly
ethy
len
e0
.00
8.9
21.
551.
550
%1.
90
%12
6.1
6%
0.0
0Y
10%
19%
29%
3917
22Tu
bes,
pip
es a
nd
hos
es, r
igid
; of
poly
prop
ylen
e0
.00
2.0
92.
66
2.0
90
%28
.54%
10.6
7%0
.00
Y10
%19
%29
%
3917
23Tu
bes,
pip
es a
nd
hos
es, r
igid
; of
poly
viny
l ch
lori
de0
.00
6.2
41.
04
1.0
40
%19
.76
%31
.19
%0
.00
Y10
%16
%26
%
3918
90
Floo
r, w
all a
nd
ceili
ng
cove
rin
gs e
tc, o
f pl
asti
cs n
es0
.00
14.0
110
.94
10.9
40
%26
.01%
55.7
7%0
.00
Y10
%19
%29
%
3920
10Fi
lm a
nd
shee
t et
c, n
on-c
ellu
lar
etc,
of
poly
mer
s of
ethy
len
e0
.00
81.
64
1.36
1.36
0%
18.0
3%-0
.77%
0.0
0Y
10%
19%
29%
3920
20Fi
lm a
nd
shee
t et
c, n
on-c
ellu
lar
etc,
of
poly
mer
s of
pro
pyle
ne
0.0
071
.32
11.0
311
.03
*38
.44%
14.0
1%21
.66
%0
.00
Y10
%19
%29
%
3920
43Pl
ates
, sh
eets
, film
, foi
l an
d st
rip,
of
non
-ce
llula
r po
lym
ers
of v
iny
0.0
014
.54
1.15
1.15
*-2
.43%
21.0
6%
-6.8
5%0
.00
Y10
%19
%29
%
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
114
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
PAK
ISTA
NI E
XPO
RTS
TO
IND
IA
HS
Co
de
Pro
du
ct la
bel
Pak
2014
Ex
po
rts
to In
dia
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Exp
ort
s
Pak
2014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Pak-
Ind
ia
CA
GR
Ind
ia
Imp
ort
C
AG
R
Pak
Exp
ort
C
AG
RB
ilate
ral
RC
ASe
nsi
tive
lis
tB
asic
Ta
riff
Para
Ta
riff
Ap
plie
d
Tari
ff
3920
62
Film
an
d sh
eet
etc,
non
-cel
lula
r et
c, o
f po
lyet
hyle
ne
tere
phth
alat
es0
.17
49.4
117
.37
17.2
017
5.17
%37
.78
%11
5.6
1%0
.62
Y10
%19
%29
%
3923
10Bo
xes,
cas
es, c
rate
s &
sim
ilar
arti
cles
of
plas
tic
0.0
051
.56
1.9
91.
99
0%
22.8
3%25
.07%
0.0
0Y
10%
19%
29%
3923
21Sa
cks
and
bags
(in
clu
din
g co
nes
) of
po
lym
ers
of e
thyl
ene
0.0
011
.65
7.6
27.
62
*-2
1.42
%9
.69
%23
.83%
0.0
0Y
10%
19%
29%
3923
29Sa
cks
and
bags
(in
clu
din
g co
nes
) of
pl
asti
cs n
es0
.00
29.3
31.
181.
18*
-23.
58%
13.1
1%-9
.49
%0
.00
Y10
%19
%29
%
3923
50St
oppe
rs, l
ids,
cap
s an
d ot
her
clo
sure
s of
pl
asti
cs0
.01
63.
97
1.41
1.41
_*25
.14%
38.3
2%0
.22
Y10
%19
%29
%
3923
90
Art
icle
s fo
r th
e co
nvey
ance
or
pack
ing
of
good
s n
es, o
f pl
asti
cs0
.54
66
.82
5.59
5.0
538
.12%
19.8
5%29
.33%
6.0
5Y
10%
19%
29%
3924
10Ta
blew
are
and
kitc
hen
war
e of
pla
stic
s0
.07
10.4
21.
531.
4722
.59
%14
.00
%-1
6.1
7%2.
83
Y10
%19
%29
%
3924
90
Hou
seh
old
and
toile
t ar
ticl
es n
es, o
f pl
asti
cs0
.01
21.0
212
.22
12.2
1-8
.12%
26.2
9%
7.6
0%
0.0
5Y
10%
19%
29%
3926
90
Art
icle
s of
pla
stic
s or
of
oth
er m
ater
ials
of
Nos
39
.01
to 3
9.1
4 n
es0
.00
677
.04
10.2
210
.22
*-4
7.59
%19
.07%
-3.1
2%0
.00
Y10
%19
%29
%
400
400
Was
te,p
arin
g&sc
rap
(exc
har
d ru
bber
)&po
wde
r/gr
anu
les
obta
ind
ther
efro
m1.
5615
.77
4.0
02.
4523
.93%
37.2
2%28
.54%
24.5
2Y
10%
19%
29%
400
941
Tube
s, p
ipes
an
d h
oses
, of
vulc
anis
ed
rubb
er (
excl
. har
d ru
bber
), r
ein
0.0
023
.72
2.6
92.
69
0%
17.6
8%
63.
04%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%
4011
40Pn
eum
atic
tir
es n
ew o
f ru
bber
for
mot
orcy
cles
0.0
018
.28
4.6
04.
60
0%
23.3
7%12
.76
%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
4013
90
Inn
er t
ube
s of
ru
bber
nes
0.2
63.
511.
421.
1628
0.0
6%
24.5
6%
23.9
2%11
.55
N5%
18%
23%
410
449
Hid
es a
nd
skin
s of
bov
ine
"in
cl. b
uff
alo"
or
equ
ine
anim
als,
in t
he
dr0
.00
133.
1410
.23
10.2
3*
-41.
3%11
.23%
-19
.57%
0.0
0N
5%4
%9
%
410
530
Skin
s of
sh
eep
or la
mbs
, in
th
e dr
y st
ate
"cru
st",
wit
hou
t w
ool o
n, w
h0
.23
2.25
2.0
31.
80
46.3
1%7.
73%
20.5
3%7.
18N
5%4
%9
%
410
719
Leat
her
"in
cl. p
arch
men
t-dr
esse
d le
ath
er"
of t
he
wh
ole
hid
es a
nd
skin
s1.
2152
.91
44.6
643
.45
14.4
5%22
.19
%8
8.9
5%1.
71N
5%4
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PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
115
4112
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Leat
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4113
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420
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420
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420
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420
292
Con
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420
299
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420
310
Art
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420
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4411
12M
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4412
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4412
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PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
116
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
PAK
ISTA
NI E
XPO
RTS
TO
IND
IA
HS
Co
de
Pro
du
ct la
bel
Pak
2014
Ex
po
rts
to In
dia
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d
Imp
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s
Pak
2014
W
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Exp
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Pak
2014
Tr
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Pote
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490
199
Book
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811
Plai
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Plai
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520
841
Plai
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1.4
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PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
117
520
842
Plai
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843
Twill
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520
851
Plai
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520
852
Plai
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520
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Wov
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520
921
Plai
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520
931
Plai
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520
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Den
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520
951
Plai
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5210
31Pl
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5211
31Pl
ain
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5211
32Tw
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5211
42D
enim
fab
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of
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5742
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5212
12W
oven
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/m2,
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86
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5212
13W
oven
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540
233
Text
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540
249
Yarn
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540
710
Wov
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ster
s0
.04
11.0
05.
64
5.6
06
.84%
1.6
2%25
.59
%0
.48
N5%
18%
23%
540
741
Wov
en f
ab,>
/=8
5% o
f ny
lon
/oth
er
poly
amid
es fi
lam
ents
,un
bl o
r bl
,nes
0.0
03.
231.
461.
460
%5.
83%
11.9
5%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
118
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
PAK
ISTA
NI E
XPO
RTS
TO
IND
IA
HS
Co
de
Pro
du
ct la
bel
Pak
2014
Ex
po
rts
to In
dia
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Exp
ort
s
Pak
2014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Pak-
Ind
ia
CA
GR
Ind
ia
Imp
ort
C
AG
R
Pak
Exp
ort
C
AG
RB
ilate
ral
RC
ASe
nsi
tive
lis
tB
asic
Ta
riff
Para
Ta
riff
Ap
plie
d
Tari
ff
540
742
Wov
en f
abri
cs,>
/=8
5% o
f ny
lon
/oth
er
poly
amid
es fi
lam
ents
, dye
d, n
es0
.01
11.0
84.
83
4.8
2_*
3.48
%-1
2.45
%0
.08
N5%
19%
24%
540
751
Wov
en f
abri
cs,>
/=8
5% o
f te
xtu
red
poly
este
r fi
lam
ents
, un
bl o
r bl
, nes
0.0
01.
371.
96
1.37
0%
7.0
3%25
.30
%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
540
752
Wov
en f
abri
cs,>
/=8
5% o
f te
xtu
red
poly
este
r fi
lam
ents
, dye
d, n
es0
.00
43.8
02.
08
2.0
80
%8
.36
%25
.77%
0.0
0N
5%19
%24
%
540
754
Wov
en f
abri
cs,>
/=8
5% o
f te
xtu
red
poly
este
r fi
lam
ents
, pri
nte
d, n
es0
.00
10.3
21.
481.
480
%28
.72%
-9.7
8%
0.0
0N
5%19
%24
%
540
772
Wov
en f
abri
cs,>
/=8
5% o
f sy
nth
etic
fi
lam
ents
, dye
d, n
es0
.00
1.6
41.
83
1.6
40
%3.
63%
-4.4
1%0
.00
Y5%
19%
24%
540
774
Wov
en f
abri
cs,>
/=8
5% o
f sy
nth
etic
fi
lam
ents
, pri
nte
d, n
es0
.00
1.21
1.33
1.21
0%
34.3
9%
-36
.56
%0
.00
Y10
%19
%29
%
540
782
Wov
en f
abri
cs o
f sy
nth
etic
fila
men
ts,<
85%
m
ixed
wit
h c
otto
n,d
yed,
nes
0.0
03.
711.
551.
550
%9
.19
%28
.38
%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
540
784
Wov
en f
abri
cs o
f sy
nth
etic
fila
men
ts,<
85%
m
ixd
wit
h c
otto
n,p
rin
ted,
nes
0.0
11.
401.
221.
220
%21
.08
%-3
1.19
%0
.41
N5%
19%
24%
550
921
Yarn
,>/=
85%
of
poly
este
r st
aple
fibr
es,
sin
gle,
not
pu
t u
p0
.00
61.
82
1.41
1.41
0%
16.2
7%10
6.4
3%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
550
96
9Ya
rn o
f ac
rylic
sta
ple
fibr
es, n
ot p
ut
up,
n
es0
.00
1.38
1.8
21.
380
%6
.54%
58.6
4%0
.00
N5%
19%
24%
5510
11Ya
rn,>
/=8
5% o
f ar
tifi
cial
sta
ple
fibr
es,
sin
gle,
not
pu
t u
p0
.00
10.1
61.
62
1.6
20
%14
.53%
109
.41%
0.0
0N
5%19
%24
%
5510
90
Yarn
of
arti
fici
al s
tapl
e fi
bres
, not
pu
t u
p,
nes
0.0
11.
395.
741.
38_*
2.16
%45
.08
%0
.12
N5%
18%
23%
5512
11W
oven
fab
rics
, con
tain
ing>
/=8
5% o
f po
lyes
ter
stap
le fi
bres
, un
bl o
r bl
0.0
02.
62
8.1
02.
62
0%
8.9
2%38
.99
%0
.00
Y10
%19
%29
%
5512
19W
oven
fab
rics
,con
tain
g>/=
85%
of
poly
este
r st
aple
fibr
es,o
/t u
nbl
or
bl0
.00
18.7
527
.43
18.7
5-2
5.42
%13
.18
%41
.81%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%
5512
29W
oven
fab
rics
,con
tain
ing>
/=8
5% o
f ac
rylic
st
aple
fibr
es,o
/t u
nbl
or
bl0
.00
1.29
3.52
1.29
0%
-4.8
3%46
.74%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%
5513
23W
oven
fab
of
poly
este
r st
aple
fi
b,<
85%
,mix
d w
/cot
,<=
170
g/m
2,dy
d,n
es0
.00
2.75
3.14
2.75
80
.76
%8
.69
%6
1.53
%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
5515
11W
oven
fab
of
poly
este
r st
aple
fib
mix
d w
vi
scos
e ra
yon
sta
ple
fib,
nes
0.0
018
.99
1.6
61.
66
0%
28.4
5%50
.03%
0.0
0N
5%13
%18
%
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
119
560
129
Wad
dg o
f ot
h t
exti
le m
ater
ials
&ar
ticl
es
ther
eof,
o/t
san
itar
y ar
ticl
es0
.14
1.59
5.13
1.45
28.6
4%1.
64%
26.6
5%1.
66
N5%
18%
23%
570
110
Car
pets
of
woo
l or
fin
e an
imal
hai
r,
knot
ted
0.2
71.
5811
7.6
91.
32-3
.57%
17.5
8%
-7.1
1%0
.14
Y10
%19
%29
%
580
710
Labe
ls, b
adge
s an
d si
mila
r w
oven
art
icle
s of
tex
tile
mat
eria
ls0
.00
30.1
47.
65
7.6
5-2
4.21
%9
.73%
9.9
1%0
.01
N5%
18%
23%
580
790
Labe
ls,b
adge
s an
d si
mila
r ar
ticl
es,n
ot
wov
en,o
f te
xtile
mat
eria
ls,n
es0
.00
4.9
41.
65
1.6
5*
-4.4
1%3.
56%
9.4
3%0
.00
Y10
%19
%29
%
590
310
Text
ile f
ab im
preg
nat
d,ct
d,co
v,or
lam
inat
d w
pol
yvin
yl c
hlo
ride
,nes
0.0
013
2.18
1.52
1.52
0%
21.8
5%8
.09
%0
.00
N5%
14%
19%
590
390
Text
ile f
abri
cs im
preg
nat
ed, c
td, c
ov, o
r la
min
ated
wit
h p
last
ics,
nes
0.0
015
5.6
81.
701.
700
%26
.52%
10.1
1%0
.00
Y10
%19
%29
%
590
700
Text
ile f
ab im
preg
,ctd
,cov
nes
;pai
ntd
ca
nvas
(e.
g.th
reat
rica
l sce
ner
y)0
.00
17.0
43.
203.
200
%6
.10
%-3
.52%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%
5911
90
Text
ile p
rodu
cts
and
arti
cles
for
tech
nic
al
use
s, n
es0
.00
39.2
32.
01
2.0
0_*
12.6
7%8
.29
%0
.13
N5%
18%
23%
60
053
2D
yed
war
p kn
it f
abri
cs o
f sy
nth
etic
fibr
es
"in
cl. t
hos
e m
ade
on g
allo
o0
.00
74.2
32.
02
2.0
20
%33
.44%
-17.
78%
0.0
0N
8%
18%
26%
60
053
4Pr
inte
d w
arp
knit
fab
rics
of
syn
thet
ic fi
bres
"i
ncl
. th
ose
mad
e on
gal
0.0
01.
547.
321.
540
%8
.54%
64.
27%
0.0
0N
8%
18%
26%
60
059
0W
arp
knit
fab
rics
"in
cl. t
hos
e m
ade
on
gallo
on k
nit
tin
g m
ach
ines
", o
f0
.00
13.0
32.
02
2.0
20
%13
.48
%20
.52%
0.0
0N
8%
18%
26%
60
06
22D
yed
cott
on f
abri
cs, k
nit
ted
or c
roch
eted
, of
a w
idth
of
> 3
0 c
m (
excl
0.2
56
.55
11.2
36
.30
7.40
%11
.58
%12
.93%
1.4
1N
8%
18%
26%
60
06
32D
yed
fabr
ics,
kn
itte
d or
cro
chet
ed, o
f sy
nth
etic
fibr
es, o
f a
wid
th o
f0
.00
96
.11
1.20
1.20
0%
39.7
1%9
.42%
0.0
0N
8%
18%
26%
60
06
42D
yed
fabr
ics,
kn
itte
d or
cro
chet
ed, o
f ar
tifi
cial
fibr
es, o
f a
wid
th o
0.2
543
.70
1.70
1.44
8.2
5%51
.91%
44.9
7%9
.43
N8
%18
%26
%
60
06
90
Fabr
ics,
kn
itte
d or
cro
chet
ed, o
f a
wid
th o
f >
30
cm
(ex
cl. o
f ar
tifi
c0
.06
51.8
94.
69
4.6
4-4
.37%
34.8
6%
-18
.08
%0
.74
N8
%18
%26
%
610
333
Men
s/bo
ys ja
cket
s an
d bl
azer
s, o
f sy
nth
etic
fi
bres
, kn
itte
d0
.01
2.52
8.4
22.
51_*
77.7
4%4.
85%
0.0
8Y
10%
14%
24%
610
342
Men
s/bo
ys t
rou
sers
an
d sh
orts
, of
cott
on,
knit
ted
0.0
11.
5570
.23
1.55
-37%
36.3
3%4.
51%
0.0
1Y
10%
14%
24%
610
343
Men
s/bo
ys t
rou
sers
an
d sh
orts
, of
syn
thet
ic fi
bres
, kn
itte
d0
.00
2.9
417
.84
2.9
40
%42
.52%
21.4
0%
0.0
0Y
10%
14%
24%
610
349
Men
s/bo
ys t
rou
sers
an
d sh
orts
, of
oth
er
text
ile m
ater
ials
, kn
itte
d0
.02
1.47
123.
68
1.45
_*28
.05%
52.7
5%0
.01
Y10
%14
%24
%
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
120
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
PAK
ISTA
NI E
XPO
RTS
TO
IND
IA
HS
Co
de
Pro
du
ct la
bel
Pak
2014
Ex
po
rts
to In
dia
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Exp
ort
s
Pak
2014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Pak-
Ind
ia
CA
GR
Ind
ia
Imp
ort
C
AG
R
Pak
Exp
ort
C
AG
RB
ilate
ral
RC
ASe
nsi
tive
lis
tB
asic
Ta
riff
Para
Ta
riff
Ap
plie
d
Tari
ff
610
442
Wom
ens/
girl
s dr
esse
s, o
f co
tton
, kn
itte
d0
.03
1.13
2.59
1.10
_*48
.93%
-13.
35%
0.6
8Y
10%
19%
29%
610
462
Wom
ens/
girl
s tr
ouse
rs a
nd
shor
ts, o
f co
tton
, kn
itte
d0
.00
2.14
57.2
12.
140
%34
.44%
12.1
8%
0.0
0Y
10%
14%
24%
610
463
Wom
ens/
girl
s tr
ouse
rs a
nd
shor
ts, o
f sy
nth
etic
fibr
es, k
nit
ted
0.0
13.
532.
442.
430
%8
9.2
2%10
.61%
0.1
5Y
10%
19%
29%
610
469
Wom
ens/
girl
s tr
ouse
rs a
nd
shor
ts, o
f ot
her
te
xtile
mat
eria
ls, k
nit
ted
0.0
04.
1045
.69
4.10
_*53
.09
%51
.78
%0
.00
Y10
%14
%24
%
610
510
Men
s/bo
ys s
hir
ts, o
f co
tton
, kn
itte
d0
.07
10.0
226
9.3
89
.96
-4.6
3%42
.08
%-4
.80
%0
.02
Y10
%14
%24
%
610
610
Wom
ens/
girl
s bl
ouse
s an
d sh
irts
, of
cott
on,
knit
ted
0.0
02.
87
25.5
02.
87
0%
54.1
1%-1
0.5
2%0
.00
Y10
%14
%24
%
610
620
Wom
ens/
girl
s bl
ouse
s an
d sh
irts
, of
man
-m
ade
fibr
es, k
nit
ted
0.0
05.
273.
323.
320
%46
.58
%10
.10
%0
.00
Y10
%18
%28
%
610
69
0W
omen
s/gi
rls
blou
ses
and
shir
ts, o
f ot
her
m
ater
ials
, kn
itte
d0
.00
2.42
44.1
92.
420
%39
.15%
31.3
4%0
.00
Y10
%14
%24
%
610
711
Men
s/bo
ys u
nde
rpan
ts a
nd
brie
fs, o
f co
tton
, kn
itte
d0
.02
1.18
29.7
71.
16_*
55.7
5%10
.85%
0.0
4Y
10%
14%
24%
610
821
Wom
ens/
girl
s br
iefs
an
d pa
nti
es, o
f co
tton
, kn
itte
d0
.00
1.31
15.0
51.
310
%28
.80
%25
.80
%0
.00
Y10
%14
%24
%
610
910
T-sh
irts
, sin
glet
s an
d ot
her
ves
ts, o
f co
tton
, kn
itte
d0
.01
24.9
419
5.41
24.9
3-1
5.23
%38
.80
%3.
17%
0.0
0Y
10%
14%
24%
610
99
0T-
shir
ts,s
ingl
ets
and
oth
er v
ests
,of
oth
er
text
ile m
ater
ials
,kn
itte
d0
.00
18.1
276
.09
18.1
214
.47%
35.1
5%36
.70
%0
.00
Y10
%14
%24
%
611
020
Pullo
vers
, car
diga
ns
and
sim
ilar
arti
cles
of
cott
on, k
nit
ted
0.0
28
.88
39.4
68
.87
191.
55%
46.4
3%2.
80
%0
.03
Y10
%14
%24
%
611
030
Pullo
vers
, car
diga
ns
and
sim
ilar
arti
cles
of
man
-mad
e fi
bres
, kn
itte
d0
.00
12.2
03.
06
3.0
60
%45
.65%
10.0
2%0
.00
Y10
%14
%24
%
611
09
0Pu
llove
rs,c
ardi
gan
s&si
mila
r ar
ticl
es o
f ot
h
text
ile m
ater
ials
,kn
ittd
0.0
13.
83
121.
09
3.8
2_*
41.4
9%
38.4
4%0
.01
Y10
%14
%24
%
611
120
Babi
es g
arm
ents
an
d cl
oth
ing
acce
ssor
ies
of c
otto
n, k
nit
ted
0.0
03.
64
35.8
93.
64
0%
42.8
4%4.
93%
0.0
0Y
10%
14%
24%
611
190
Babi
es g
arm
ents
&cl
oth
g ac
cess
orie
s of
ot
her
tex
tile
mat
eria
ls,k
nit
ted
0.0
05.
64
12.7
55.
64
0%
43.2
6%
31.1
2%0
.00
Y10
%14
%24
%
611
430
Gar
men
ts n
es, o
f m
an-m
ade
fibr
es, k
nit
ted
0.0
05.
08
3.17
3.17
0%
53.9
3%-1
1.71
%0
.00
Y10
%19
%29
%
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
121
611
510
Gra
duat
ed c
ompr
essi
on h
osie
ry [
e.g.
, st
ocki
ngs
for
vari
cose
vei
ns]
, of
0.0
11.
82
53.9
91.
82
0%
28.1
3%-4
.92%
0.0
1N
8%
14%
22%
611
599
Hos
iery
nes
, of
oth
er t
exti
le m
ater
ials
, kn
itte
d0
.00
17.9
057
.59
17.9
00
%52
.45%
16.6
1%0
.00
Y10
%14
%24
%
611
610
Glo
ves
impr
egn
ated
, coa
ted
or c
over
ed
wit
h p
last
ics
or r
ubb
er, k
nit
ted
0.0
64.
04
57.1
83.
97
12.8
7%48
.57%
28.3
3%0
.07
Y10
%14
%24
%
611
69
2G
love
s, m
itte
ns
and
mit
ts, n
es, o
f co
tton
, kn
itte
d0
.04
1.57
59.5
61.
53-5
.61%
77.7
4%8
.61%
0.0
5Y
10%
14%
24%
611
69
9G
love
s, m
itte
ns
and
mit
ts, n
es, o
f ot
her
te
xtile
mat
eria
ls, k
nit
ted
0.1
93.
66
19.9
73.
4742
.27%
34.8
7%20
.31%
0.6
1Y
10%
14%
24%
611
710
Shaw
ls, s
carv
es, v
eils
an
d th
e lik
e, o
f te
xtile
mat
eria
ls, k
nit
ted
0.0
02.
1317
.63
2.13
*-3
8.2
6%
27.5
4%24
.15%
0.0
0Y
10%
14%
24%
611
780
Clo
thin
g ac
cess
orie
s n
es, o
f te
xtile
m
ater
ials
, kn
itte
d0
.00
3.8
82.
222.
220
%43
.05%
8.2
1%0
.00
Y10
%14
%24
%
620
193
Men
s/bo
ys a
nor
aks
and
sim
ilar
arti
cles
,of
man
-mad
e fi
bres
,not
kn
itte
d0
.01
4.74
5.0
64.
73_*
53.5
7%7.
67%
0.1
1N
5%13
%18
%
620
312
Men
s/bo
ys s
uit
s, o
f sy
nth
etic
fibr
es, n
ot
knit
ted
0.0
03.
441.
201.
200
%50
.14%
0.9
0%
0.0
0N
5%13
%18
%
620
329
Men
s/bo
ys e
nse
mbl
es, o
f ot
her
tex
tile
m
ater
ials
, not
kn
itte
d0
.00
1.0
510
.47
1.0
5-2
4.73
%8
7.11
%4.
59%
0.0
2Y
10%
14%
24%
620
332
Men
s/bo
ys ja
cket
s an
d bl
azer
s, o
f co
tton
, n
ot k
nit
ted
0.0
16
.16
15.9
36
.15
_*53
.28
%-5
.39
%0
.03
Y10
%14
%24
%
620
333
Men
s/bo
ys ja
cket
s an
d bl
azer
s, o
f sy
nth
etic
fi
bres
, not
kn
itte
d0
.06
16.1
811
.84
11.7
974
.26
%6
4.28
%4.
95%
0.3
0Y
10%
14%
24%
620
339
Men
s/bo
ys ja
cket
s an
d bl
azer
s, o
f ot
her
te
xtile
mat
eria
ls, n
ot k
nit
ted
0.2
82.
2629
.01
1.9
86
2.38
%25
.02%
24.6
9%
0.6
0Y
10%
14%
24%
620
341
Men
s/bo
ys t
rou
sers
an
d sh
orts
,of
woo
l or
fin
e an
imal
hai
r,n
ot k
nit
ted
0.0
01.
511.
08
1.0
8_*
50.1
3%-6
.47%
0.0
6Y
10%
14%
24%
620
342
Men
s/bo
ys t
rou
sers
an
d sh
orts
, of
cott
on,
not
kn
itte
d0
.28
62.
07
66
4.53
61.
7953
.27%
44.3
2%7.
63%
0.0
3Y
10%
14%
24%
620
343
Men
s/bo
ys t
rou
sers
an
d sh
orts
, of
syn
thet
ic fi
bres
, not
kn
itte
d0
.02
6.7
018
.33
6.6
876
.52%
32.1
0%
2.72
%0
.08
N5%
13%
18%
620
349
Men
s/bo
ys t
rou
sers
an
d sh
orts
, of
oth
er
text
ile m
ater
ials
, not
kn
itte
d0
.01
6.0
38
4.73
6.0
251
.31%
25.0
1%40
.04%
0.0
1Y
10%
14%
24%
620
432
Wom
ens/
girl
s ja
cket
s, o
f co
tton
, not
kn
itte
d0
.01
1.19
11.2
61.
18_*
21.1
3%4.
49%
0.0
4N
5%13
%18
%
620
433
Wom
ens/
girl
s ja
cket
s, o
f sy
nth
etic
fibr
es,
not
kn
itte
d0
.00
5.73
1.21
1.21
0%
85.
31%
5.46
%0
.00
Y10
%19
%29
%
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
122
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
PAK
ISTA
NI E
XPO
RTS
TO
IND
IA
HS
Co
de
Pro
du
ct la
bel
Pak
2014
Ex
po
rts
to In
dia
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Exp
ort
s
Pak
2014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Pak-
Ind
ia
CA
GR
Ind
ia
Imp
ort
C
AG
R
Pak
Exp
ort
C
AG
RB
ilate
ral
RC
ASe
nsi
tive
lis
tB
asic
Ta
riff
Para
Ta
riff
Ap
plie
d
Tari
ff
620
439
Wom
ens/
girl
s ja
cket
s, o
f ot
her
tex
tile
m
ater
ials
, not
kn
itte
d0
.04
2.8
24.
07
2.77
_*43
.71%
21.3
2%0
.66
Y10
%14
%24
%
620
442
Wom
ens/
girl
s dr
esse
s, o
f co
tton
, not
kn
itte
d0
.12
2.20
1.45
1.33
121.
34%
59.2
4%-1
7.8
8%
5.21
Y10
%11
%21
%
620
463
Wom
ens/
girl
s tr
ouse
rs a
nd
shor
ts, o
f sy
nth
etic
fibr
es, n
ot k
nit
ted
0.0
03.
3357
.61
3.33
0%
33.8
9%
31.2
6%
0.0
0Y
10%
14%
24%
620
469
Wom
ens/
girl
s tr
ouse
rs &
sh
orts
,of
oth
er
text
ile m
ater
ials
,not
kn
itte
d0
.00
9.2
59
5.39
9.2
4-2
4.8
0%
56.9
4%6
8.0
2%0
.00
Y10
%14
%24
%
620
520
Men
s/bo
ys s
hir
ts, o
f co
tton
, not
kn
itte
d0
.05
37.2
410
.41
10.3
6_*
27.8
7%-1
6.1
1%0
.31
Y10
%11
%21
%
620
530
Men
s/bo
ys s
hir
ts, o
f m
an-m
ade
fibr
es, n
ot
knit
ted
0.0
01.
98
1.8
61.
86
0%
16.4
5%-1
2.39
%0
.00
Y10
%19
%29
%
620
590
Men
s/bo
ys s
hir
ts, o
f ot
her
tex
tile
m
ater
ials
, not
kn
itte
d0
.00
5.0
74.
774.
76_*
12.3
1%8
.36
%0
.03
Y10
%14
%24
%
620
630
Wom
ens/
girl
s bl
ouse
s an
d sh
irts
, of
cott
on,
not
kn
itte
d0
.15
2.9
74.
522.
83
316
.98
%29
.50
%-1
1.50
%2.
02
Y10
%14
%24
%
620
69
0W
omen
s/gi
rls
blou
ses
and
shir
ts,o
f ot
her
te
xtile
mat
eria
ls,n
ot k
nit
ted
0.0
01.
03
3.6
81.
03
0%
28.6
4%22
.67%
0.0
0Y
10%
14%
24%
620
920
Babi
es g
arm
ents
an
d cl
oth
ing
acce
ssor
ies
of c
otto
n, n
ot k
nit
ted
0.0
02.
298
.72
2.29
0%
25.7
2%-1
.58
%0
.00
Y10
%14
%24
%
620
99
0Ba
bies
gar
men
ts&
clot
hg
acce
ssor
ies
of o
th
text
ile m
ater
ials
,not
kn
ittd
0.0
02.
90
1.6
41.
64
-26
.89
%23
.32%
6.8
7%0
.15
Y10
%14
%24
%
621
111
Men
s/bo
ys s
wim
wea
r, o
f te
xtile
mat
eria
ls
not
kn
itte
d0
.00
1.46
2.73
1.46
0%
30.7
1%12
.47%
0.0
0Y
10%
14%
24%
621
60
0G
love
s, m
itte
ns
and
mit
ts, o
f te
xtile
m
ater
ials
, not
kn
itte
d0
.00
1.39
13.1
41.
390
%24
.40
%-0
.07%
0.0
0Y
10%
14%
24%
621
710
Clo
thin
g ac
cess
orie
s n
es, o
f te
xtile
m
ater
ials
, not
kn
itte
d0
.00
2.9
15.
62
2.9
10
%2.
25%
38.7
3%0
.00
Y10
%14
%24
%
630
140
Blan
kets
(o/
t el
ectr
ic)
and
trav
ellin
g ru
gs,
of s
ynth
etic
fibr
es0
.00
48.9
222
.25
22.2
50
%56
.11%
48.3
8%
0.0
0N
10%
19%
29%
630
190
Blan
kets
(o/
t el
ectr
ic)
and
trav
ellin
g ru
gs,o
f ot
her
tex
tile
mat
eria
ls0
.00
21.5
316
.20
16.2
0_*
44.0
4%40
.33%
0.0
2N
5%18
%23
%
630
222
Bed
linen
, of
man
-mad
e fi
bres
, pri
nte
d,
not
kn
itte
d0
.00
2.0
611
.30
2.0
60
%6
1.54
%-1
3.70
%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
123
630
399
Cu
rtai
n/d
rape
/inte
rior
blin
d cu
rtai
n/b
d va
lan
ce,o
f ot
h t
ex m
at,n
t kn
it0
.01
2.56
45.3
72.
54_*
17.0
6%
26.8
1%0
.02
N5%
18%
23%
630
419
Beds
prea
ds o
f te
xtile
mat
eria
ls, n
es, n
ot
knit
ted
or c
roch
eted
0.0
077
.23
28.6
228
.62
0%
50.6
3%17
.63%
0.0
0Y
10%
19%
29%
630
492
Furn
ish
ing
arti
cles
nes
, of
cott
on, n
ot
knit
ted
or c
roch
eted
0.0
012
.24
5.13
5.13
0%
22.6
1%-4
.01%
0.0
0Y
10%
19%
29%
630
499
Furn
ish
g ar
ticl
es n
es,o
f ot
h t
exti
le
mat
eria
ls,n
ot k
nit
td o
cro
chet
d0
.00
1.0
89
.16
1.0
80
%15
.61%
-2.4
3%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
630
510
Sack
s&ba
gs,f
or p
ackg
of
good
s,of
jute
or
of o
ther
tex
tile
bas
t fi
bres
0.0
051
.92
10.0
210
.02
-82.
59%
28.5
8%
20.6
6%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%
630
532
Flex
ible
inte
rmed
iate
bu
lk c
onta
iner
s,
man
-mad
e m
ater
0.0
02.
66
5.0
22.
66
*-2
2.35
%58
.24%
16.8
9%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%
630
533
Sack
s, b
ags,
pac
kin
g, o
f st
rip
plas
tic
mat
eria
l0
.05
1.20
6.0
81.
1513
.02%
-8.8
2%27
.84%
0.5
3N
5%18
%23
%
630
622
Ten
ts, o
f sy
nth
etic
fibr
es0
.00
1.0
63.
401.
06
0%
35.8
5%21
.58
%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
630
710
Floo
r-cl
oth
s,di
sh-c
loth
s,du
ster
s &
sim
ilar
clea
nin
g cl
oth
s,of
tex
mat
0.0
25.
04
392.
755.
01
-15.
35%
32.0
3%10
.22%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%
630
790
Mad
e u
p ar
ticl
es, o
f te
xtile
mat
eria
ls, n
es,
incl
udi
ng
dres
s pa
tter
ns
0.0
022
.81
36.8
222
.81
-44.
69
%8
.42%
-3.9
0%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%
630
90
0W
orn
clo
thin
g an
d ot
her
wor
n a
rtic
les
0.3
812
2.27
13.5
813
.20
17.7
8%
6.1
9%
40.4
1%1.
78N
5%18
%23
%
631
010
Use
d or
new
rag
s of
tex
tile
mat
eria
ls,
sort
ed0
.15
13.7
85.
735.
586
7.6
7%15
.98
%0
.58
%1.
64
Y5%
18%
23%
640
219
Spor
ts fo
otw
ear,
ou
ter
sole
s an
d u
pper
s of
ru
bber
or
plas
tics
, nes
0.0
015
.93
1.30
1.30
-7.6
8%
42.1
5%49
.71%
0.1
9Y
10%
19%
29%
640
299
Foot
wea
r, o
ute
r so
les/
upp
ers
of r
ubb
er o
r pl
asti
cs, n
es0
.02
61.
412.
90
2.8
834
.80
%49
.09
%12
.77%
0.5
2Y
10%
19%
29%
640
319
Spor
ts fo
otw
ear,
o/t
ski,o
utr
sol
e of
rbr
/pl
as/le
ath
er&
upp
er o
f le
ath
er0
.02
17.4
41.
341.
3244
.65%
16.4
1%13
.76
%0
.90
Y10
%19
%29
%
640
320
Foot
wea
r,ou
tr s
ole/
upp
r of
leat
hr,
stra
p ac
ross
th
e in
step
/arn
d bi
g to
e0
.05
7.57
27.1
57.
51_*
29.7
0%
26.5
8%
0.1
3N
5%18
%23
%
640
359
Foot
wea
r, o
ute
r so
les
and
upp
ers
of
leat
her
, nes
0.0
017
.82
1.45
1.45
0%
37.4
9%
-12.
81%
0.0
0N
10%
19%
29%
640
391
Foot
wea
r,ou
ter
sole
s of
ru
bber
/pla
st
upp
ers
of le
ath
er c
ovg
ankl
e n
es0
.00
5.0
72.
68
2.6
80
%26
.93%
-21.
40%
0.0
0Y
10%
19%
29%
640
399
Foot
wea
r, o
ute
r so
les
of r
ubb
er/p
last
ics
upp
ers
of le
ath
er, n
es0
.01
32.1
577
.54
32.1
432
.64%
35.4
9%
25.7
2%0
.01
Y10
%19
%29
%
640
411
Spor
ts fo
otw
ear
w o
ute
r so
les
of r
ubb
er o
pl
asti
cs&
upp
ers
of t
ex m
at0
.01
27.8
93.
273.
27_*
26.2
2%1.
77%
0.1
0Y
10%
19%
29%
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
124
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
PAK
ISTA
NI E
XPO
RTS
TO
IND
IA
HS
Co
de
Pro
du
ct la
bel
Pak
2014
Ex
po
rts
to In
dia
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Exp
ort
s
Pak
2014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Pak-
Ind
ia
CA
GR
Ind
ia
Imp
ort
C
AG
R
Pak
Exp
ort
C
AG
RB
ilate
ral
RC
ASe
nsi
tive
lis
tB
asic
Ta
riff
Para
Ta
riff
Ap
plie
d
Tari
ff
640
419
Foot
wea
r o/
t sp
orts
,w o
ute
r so
les
of
rubb
er/p
last
ics&
upp
ers
of t
ex m
at0
.02
59.3
31.
711.
7023
.16
%30
.85%
4.9
5%0
.63
Y10
%19
%29
%
640
590
Foot
wea
r, n
es0
.00
48.1
59
.29
9.2
9-6
.70
%28
.23%
-0.8
9%
0.0
1Y
10%
19%
29%
650
69
9H
eadg
ear
nes
, of
oth
er m
ater
ials
0.0
01.
491.
02
1.0
20
%32
.57%
28.5
1%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
68
022
1M
onu
men
tal/b
uild
g st
one,
cut/
saw
n fl
at/
even
,mar
ble/
trav
erti
ne/
alab
aste
r0
.09
145.
235.
725.
64
145.
40%
17.0
3%17
.85%
0.9
8Y
10%
19%
29%
68
09
19Pl
aste
r bo
ards
etc
not
orn
amen
tal f
aced
or
rein
forc
ed n
es0
.01
12.2
61.
161.
15-8
.53%
29.5
1%79
.49
%0
.76
N5%
18%
23%
68
159
9A
rtic
les
of s
ton
e or
of
oth
er m
iner
al
subs
tan
ces
nes
0.1
99
.00
9.6
88
.81
-0.1
6%
8.7
6%
-2.3
9%
1.24
N5%
13%
18%
69
109
0C
eram
ic s
inks
, was
h b
asin
s et
c &
sim
ilar
san
itar
y fi
xtu
res
nes
0.0
057
.68
3.9
13.
91
0%
35.5
2%2.
07%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%
69
149
0A
rtic
les
of c
eram
ics
nes
0.0
052
.10
1.30
1.30
0%
16.7
5%16
.44%
0.0
0N
10%
14%
24%
700
529
Floa
t gl
ass
etc
in s
hee
ts, n
on-w
ired
nes
16.9
741
.26
20.6
43.
67
111.
55%
12.3
3%6
5.47
%51
.80
N5%
18%
23%
7010
90
Car
boys
, bot
tles
, flas
ks, j
ars,
pot
s, p
hia
ls
and
oth
er c
onta
iner
s, o
f0
.00
43.6
33.
203.
20*
39.5
4%28
.62%
-4.5
2%0
.00
N10
%19
%29
%
7013
37D
rin
kin
g gl
asse
s (e
xcl.
glas
ses
of g
lass
ce
ram
ics
or o
f le
ad c
ryst
al a
0.0
017
.17
2.43
2.43
0%
26.4
6%
159
.27%
0.0
0Y
10%
19%
29%
710
310
Prec
/sem
i-pre
c st
ones
(o/
t di
amon
ds)
un
wor
kd/s
impl
y sa
wn
/rou
gh s
hap
d0
.32
190
.28
7.6
77.
3519
.62%
7.44
%25
.05%
2.6
1N
5%18
%23
%
7113
19A
rtic
les
of je
wel
lry&
pt t
her
of o
f/o
prec
met
w
/n p
latd
/cla
d w
pre
c m
et0
.14
734.
80
105.
2210
5.0
8_*
19.1
7%15
.75%
0.0
8N
5%14
%19
%
720
510
Gra
nu
les
of p
ig ir
on o
r sp
iege
leis
en0
.00
36.1
72.
242.
240
%12
.92%
-19
.58
%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
720
839
Hot
rol
l iro
n/s
teel
nes
, coi
l >6
00
mm
x
<3m
m0
.00
322.
2215
.06
15.0
60
%19
.85%
_*0
.00
N15
%11
%26
%
720
917
Col
d ro
lled
iron
/ste
el, c
oils
>6
00
mm
x
0.5
-1m
m0
.00
401.
67
7.8
07.
80
0%
17.4
6%
_*0
.00
N15
%11
%26
%
7210
49Fl
at r
olle
d pr
od,i/
nas
,pla
ted
or c
oate
d w
ith
zi
nc,
>/=
60
0m
m w
ide,
nes
0.0
025
3.8
68
.10
8.1
00
%23
.39
%55
.44%
0.0
0Y
15%
11%
26%
730
230
Swit
ch b
lade
s,cr
ossi
ng
frog
s,po
int
rods
&
oth
er c
ross
ing
piec
es,i
or s
0.0
02.
88
2.8
32.
83
0%
98
.71%
20.8
3%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
730
290
Rail
or t
ram
way
con
stru
ctio
n m
ater
ial o
f ir
on o
r st
eel,
nes
0.0
05.
89
9.0
05.
89
0%
7.8
4%6
3.74
%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
125
730
590
Tube
s &
pip
e, i
or s
, riv
eted
or
sim
clo
sed,
ex
t di
a >
406
.4m
m, n
es0
.00
9.9
58
.42
8.4
20
%7.
12%
16.8
9%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%
730
69
0Tu
bes,
pip
e &
hol
low
pro
file
s, ir
on o
r st
eel,
wel
ded,
nes
0.0
09
7.75
96
.20
96
.20
0%
21.5
8%
71.6
2%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
730
89
0St
ruct
ure
s&pa
rts
of s
tru
ctu
res,
i/s (
ex
pref
ab b
ldgs
of
hea
dg n
o.9
406
)0
.00
349
.32
50.0
750
.07
0%
29.7
8%
24.5
4%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
7310
21C
ans,
iron
o s
teel
,cap
<50
litr
es,t
o be
clo
sd
by c
rim
pg o
sol
deri
ng,
nes
0.0
05.
93
1.15
1.15
0%
1.19
%11
8.8
2%0
.00
N5%
15%
20%
7310
29C
ans,
iron
or
stee
l, ca
paci
ty <
50 li
tres
nes
0.0
043
.32
3.8
93.
89
0%
26.1
8%
45.8
8%
0.0
0N
5%15
%20
%
7311
00
Con
tain
ers
for
com
pres
sed
or li
quefi
ed g
as
of ir
on o
r st
eel
0.3
345
.28
1.37
1.0
422
.86
%14
.38
%3.
57%
15.1
0N
5%18
%23
%
7312
10St
ran
ded
wir
e,ro
pes&
cabl
es o
f ir
on o
r st
eel,n
ot e
lect
rica
lly in
sula
ted
0.0
09
3.22
1.0
91.
09
0%
25.7
1%6
1.48
%0
.00
N5%
15%
20%
7321
90
App
lian
ce p
arts
cle
arly
iden
tifi
able
as
f h
ouse
hol
d,co
okin
g,ca
mpg
,nes
0.0
05.
473.
263.
260
%9
.06
%12
4.55
%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
7323
93
Tabl
e,ki
tch
en o
r ot
her
hou
seh
old
art&
part
s th
ereo
f,st
ain
less
ste
el,n
es0
.00
8.6
76
.20
6.2
00
%22
.17%
0.0
2%0
.00
N5%
7%12
%
7323
99
Tabl
e,ki
tch
en o
r ot
h h
ouse
hol
d ar
t&pa
rts
ther
eof,
of ir
on o
r st
eel,n
es0
.00
19.9
91.
431.
430
%26
.38
%9
.43%
0.0
0N
5%7%
12%
7326
90
Art
icle
s, ir
on o
r st
eel,
nes
0.0
449
2.9
14.
94
4.9
044
.25%
9.7
1%16
.70
%0
.50
N5%
18%
23%
740
319
Refi
ned
cop
per
prod
uct
s, u
nw
rou
ght,
nes
2.72
52.6
212
.33
9.6
16
4.44
%3.
07%
156
.50
%13
.88
N5%
18%
23%
740
321
Cop
per-
zin
c ba
se a
lloys
, un
wro
ugh
t0
.47
6.8
93.
442.
96
41.7
6%
1.42
%14
.35%
8.6
7N
5%18
%23
%
740
819
Wir
e of
refi
nd
copp
er o
f w
hic
h t
he
max
cr
oss
sect
ion
l dim
ensi
on <
=6
mm
0.0
011
6.5
03.
523.
520
%35
.83%
73.8
0%
0.0
0Y
5%18
%23
%
7418
20Sa
nit
ary
war
e an
d pa
rts
ther
eof
of c
oppe
r0
.00
29.2
56
.16
6.1
60
%38
.55%
16.1
3%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
7419
99
Art
icle
s of
cop
per,
nes
0.0
039
.18
1.27
1.27
0%
17.8
5%-0
.82%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%
760
200
Was
te a
nd
scra
p, a
lum
iniu
m2.
62
1,49
0.5
24.
371.
7537
.12%
27.9
4%6
2.51
%37
.81
N5%
18%
23%
7612
10C
onta
iner
s, c
olla
psib
le t
ubu
lar,
alu
min
ium
0.0
03.
02
1.48
1.48
0%
4.46
%6
.89
%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
7615
10Ta
ble,
kit
chen
or
oth
er h
ouse
hol
d ar
ticl
es
and
part
s th
ereo
f, a
nd
pot
scou
rers
an
d sc
ouri
n0
.01
18.6
929
.31
18.6
9_*
_*#
DIV
/0!
0.0
1N
5%18
%23
%
780
199
Lead
un
wro
ugh
t n
es0
.00
222.
264.
65
4.6
5*
10.2
6%
20.9
3%43
.78
%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
820
320
Plie
rs (
incl
udi
ng
cutt
ing
plie
rs),
pin
cers
, tw
eeze
rs a
nd
sim
ilar
tool
s0
.00
5.9
81.
84
1.8
4*
-52.
34%
26.9
1%6
.72%
0.0
0N
10%
19%
29%
820
559
Tool
s fo
r m
ason
s, w
atch
mak
ers,
min
ers
and
han
d to
ols
nes
0.0
017
.31
2.0
12.
01
*25
.99
%17
.25%
20.8
1%0
.00
N10
%19
%29
%
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
126
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
PAK
ISTA
NI E
XPO
RTS
TO
IND
IA
HS
Co
de
Pro
du
ct la
bel
Pak
2014
Ex
po
rts
to In
dia
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Exp
ort
s
Pak
2014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Pak-
Ind
ia
CA
GR
Ind
ia
Imp
ort
C
AG
R
Pak
Exp
ort
C
AG
RB
ilate
ral
RC
ASe
nsi
tive
lis
tB
asic
Ta
riff
Para
Ta
riff
Ap
plie
d
Tari
ff
820
719
Rock
dri
llin
g/ea
rth
bor
ing
tool
s, n
es, p
arts
0.0
024
.78
4.47
4.47
0%
23.0
0%
12.1
9%
0.0
0N
10%
19%
29%
820
790
Scre
wdr
iver
bit
s, la
ppin
g to
ols
and
oth
er
inte
rch
ange
able
too
ls0
.20
194.
87
1.53
1.33
0%
14.8
9%
-14.
79%
8.1
2N
5%19
%24
%
821
192
Butc
her
's k
niv
es, h
un
tin
g kn
ives
an
d ot
her
kn
ives
hav
ing
fixe
d bl
ades
0.0
01.
315.
521.
310
%39
.15%
-8.3
0%
0.0
0N
10%
19%
29%
821
210
Razo
rs in
clu
din
g sa
fety
raz
ors
and
open
bl
ade
type
0.0
16
.36
8.5
46
.35
_*19
.18
%21
.05%
0.0
5N
10%
19%
29%
821
300
Scis
sors
, tai
lors
' sh
ears
an
d si
mila
r sh
ears
, an
d bl
ades
th
eref
or0
.26
5.12
5.6
44.
86
85.
34%
26.5
4%13
.29
%2.
88
N10
%19
%29
%
821
420
Man
icu
re o
r pe
dicu
re s
ets
and
inst
rum
ents
(i
ncl
udi
ng
nai
l file
s)0
.11
4.74
51.4
04.
63
36.2
2%20
.75%
20.4
8%
0.1
3N
10%
19%
29%
821
599
Tabl
ewar
e ar
ticl
es n
ot in
set
s an
d n
ot
plat
ed w
ith
pre
ciou
s m
etal
0.0
03.
391.
331.
330
%19
.37%
0.8
8%
0.0
0N
5%11
%16
%
840
69
0Pa
rts
of s
team
an
d va
pou
r tu
rbin
es0
.00
131.
301.
461.
460
%11
.71%
7.78
%0
.00
N5%
19%
24%
840
710
Air
craf
t en
gin
es, s
park
-ign
itio
n
reci
proc
atin
g or
rot
ary
type
0.0
014
9.2
417
.68
17.6
80
%38
.59
%26
.96
%0
.00
N5%
19%
24%
841
122
Turb
o-pr
opel
lers
of
a po
wer
exc
eedi
ng
110
0 K
W0
.00
19.2
51.
301.
300
%25
.27%
_*0
.00
N5%
19%
24%
841
182
Gas
tu
rbin
es n
es o
f a
pow
er e
xcee
din
g 50
00
KW
0.0
08
4.45
23.1
923
.19
0%
13.2
2%42
.08
%0
.00
N5%
19%
24%
841
199
Part
s of
gas
tu
rbin
es n
es0
.00
199
.59
14.4
614
.46
0%
10.6
3%39
.10
%0
.00
N5%
19%
24%
841
391
Part
s of
pu
mps
for
liqu
id w
het
her
or
not
fi
tted
wit
h a
mea
surg
dev
ice
0.0
126
0.1
42.
09
2.0
95.
96
%11
.70
%20
.82%
0.1
8N
5%18
%23
%
841
451
Fan
s: t
able
,roo
f et
c w
a s
elf-
con
t el
ec m
tr
of a
n o
utp
ut
nt
excd
g 12
5W0
.00
71.5
438
.56
38.5
60
%18
.90
%11
.88
%0
.00
Y9
%19
%28
%
841
490
Part
s of
vac
uu
m p
um
ps, c
ompr
esso
rs,
fan
s, b
low
ers,
hoo
ds0
.00
405.
88
12.2
712
.27
0%
15.4
4%22
.24%
0.0
0N
5%19
%24
%
841
510
Air
con
diti
onin
g m
ach
ines
win
dow
or
wal
l ty
pes,
sel
f-co
nta
ined
0.0
040
1.9
416
.37
16.3
70
%32
.14%
23.4
7%0
.00
N5%
19%
24%
841
810
Com
bin
ed r
efri
gera
tor-
free
zers
, fitt
ed w
ith
se
para
te e
xter
nal
doo
rs0
.00
103.
94
12.4
512
.45
0%
43.7
1%26
.14%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%
841
821
Refr
iger
ator
s, h
ouse
hol
d ty
pe,
com
pres
sion
-typ
e0
.00
5.20
9.1
75.
200
%-1
0.0
0%
47.7
5%0
.00
Y10
%19
%29
%
841
829
Refr
iger
ator
s, h
ouse
hol
d ty
pe, n
es0
.00
7.78
5.8
15.
81
0%
-1.9
6%
81.
47%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
127
841
830
Free
zers
of
the
ches
t ty
pe, n
ot e
xcee
din
g 8
00
l ca
paci
ty0
.00
25.3
02.
552.
550
%23
.01%
17.6
9%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%
841
920
Med
ical
, su
rgic
al o
r la
bora
tory
ste
riliz
ers
0.0
036
.51
1.11
1.11
0%
17.1
5%40
.51%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%
842
123
Oil
or p
etro
l-filt
ers
for
inte
rnal
com
bust
ion
en
gin
es0
.00
44.4
01.
171.
170
%18
.80
%7.
80
%0
.00
N5%
19%
24%
842
649
Der
rick
s,cr
anes
or
wor
k tr
uck
s fi
tted
wit
h a
cr
ane,
self
-pro
pelle
d n
es0
.00
52.5
51.
491.
490
%16
.67%
11.4
2%0
.00
N5%
19%
24%
842
951
Fron
t en
d sh
ovel
load
ers
0.0
012
.81
1.15
1.15
0%
27.2
1%15
.85%
0.0
0N
5%19
%24
%
843
049
Bori
ng
or s
inki
ng
mac
hin
ery
nes
, not
sel
f-pr
opel
led
0.0
816
1.9
51.
95
1.8
7_*
27.3
7%14
.26
%2.
62
N5%
19%
24%
843
139
Part
s of
lift
ing,
han
dlin
g, lo
adin
g or
u
nlo
adin
g m
ach
iner
y n
es0
.00
138
.55
3.31
3.31
0%
19.4
0%
32.0
6%
0.0
0N
5%19
%24
%
843
143
Part
s of
bor
ing
or s
inki
ng
mac
hin
ery,
w
het
her
or
not
sel
f-pr
opel
led
0.0
035
1.42
11.7
711
.77
_*14
.05%
-1.8
5%0
.01
N5%
19%
24%
843
149
Part
s of
cra
nes
,wor
k-tr
uck
s,sh
ovel
s,an
d ot
her
con
stru
ctio
n m
ach
iner
y0
.00
443.
101.
251.
250
%13
.02%
8.5
1%0
.00
N5%
19%
24%
843
210
Plou
ghs
0.0
03.
121.
91
1.9
10
%17
.33%
25.0
2%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
843
89
0Pt
s of
mac
h n
es f
th
e in
d pr
ep/m
fr fo
od e
tc
ex f
ex/
prep
veg
fat
/oil
0.0
024
.94
4.59
4.59
0%
18.2
4%23
.54%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%
844
630
Mac
hin
es fo
r w
eavg
fab
rics
of
a w
idth
ex
ceed
g 30
cm
sh
utt
lele
ss t
ype
0.1
335
3.6
12.
66
2.53
-17.
67%
11.9
6%
76.6
6%
3.12
N5%
18%
23%
845
019
Hou
seh
old/
lau
ndr
y-ty
pe w
ash
g m
ach
of
a dr
y lin
en c
apa
<=
10 k
g,n
es0
.00
26.8
22.
99
2.9
90
%32
.22%
52.8
3%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
845
89
9La
thes
nes
for
rem
ovin
g m
etal
0.0
042
.35
1.42
1.42
0%
10.0
8%
27.8
3%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
847
330
Part
s&ac
cess
orie
s of
au
tom
atic
dat
a pr
oces
sg m
ach
ines
&u
nit
s th
ereo
f0
.00
1,42
9.2
210
.01
10.0
10
%3.
09
%20
.76
%0
.00
N0
%17
%17
%
847
431
Con
cret
e or
mor
tar
mix
ers
0.0
04.
491.
81
1.8
10
%14
.67%
7.46
%0
.00
N5%
19%
24%
847
810
Mac
hin
ery
for
prep
arin
g or
mak
ing
up
toba
cco
nes
0.0
013
.54
3.18
3.18
0%
9.3
6%
26.1
2%0
.00
N5%
19%
24%
847
98
9M
ach
ines
& m
ech
anic
al a
pplia
nce
s n
es
hav
ing
indi
vidu
al f
un
ctio
ns
0.0
375
0.7
01.
311.
27_*
13.6
1%-3
.99
%1.
64
N5%
19%
24%
848
180
Taps
, coc
ks, v
alve
s an
d si
mila
r ap
plia
nce
s,
nes
0.0
071
1.0
71.
271.
270
%16
.37%
34.5
6%
0.0
0N
5%19
%24
%
850
133
DC
mot
ors,
DC
gen
erat
ors,
of a
n o
utp
ut
exce
edg
75 K
W b
ut
nt
> 3
75K
W0
.00
3.9
11.
121.
120
%-5
.25%
68
.62%
0.0
0N
5%19
%24
%
850
220
Gen
erat
ing
sets
wit
h s
park
-ign
itio
n
inte
rnal
com
bust
ion
pis
ton
en
gin
es0
.00
1.70
1.0
81.
08
0%
-18
.16
%71
.16
%0
.00
N5%
19%
24%
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
128
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
PAK
ISTA
NI E
XPO
RTS
TO
IND
IA
HS
Co
de
Pro
du
ct la
bel
Pak
2014
Ex
po
rts
to In
dia
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Exp
ort
s
Pak
2014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Pak-
Ind
ia
CA
GR
Ind
ia
Imp
ort
C
AG
R
Pak
Exp
ort
C
AG
RB
ilate
ral
RC
ASe
nsi
tive
lis
tB
asic
Ta
riff
Para
Ta
riff
Ap
plie
d
Tari
ff
850
239
Elec
tric
gen
erat
ing
sets
0.0
015
.50
3.53
3.53
0%
0.1
5%0
.16
%0
.00
N5%
19%
24%
850
300
Part
s of
ele
ctri
c m
otor
s,ge
ner
ator
s,ge
ner
atg
sets
& r
otar
y co
nver
ters
0.0
040
9.2
41.
04
1.0
40
%5.
39%
-0.9
8%
0.0
0N
5%19
%24
%
850
433
Tran
sfor
mer
s el
ectr
ic p
ower
han
dlin
g ca
pa
> 1
6 K
VA b
ut
<=
50
0 K
VA0
.00
9.5
72.
96
2.9
60
%21
.83%
31.9
4%0
.00
N5%
19%
24%
850
434
Tran
sfor
mer
s el
ectr
ic h
avg
a po
wer
han
dlg
capa
city
exc
eedg
50
0 K
VA,n
es0
.00
29.9
72.
492.
490
%6
.85%
3.14
%0
.00
N5%
19%
24%
850
710
Lead
-aci
d el
ectr
ic a
ccu
mu
lato
rs o
f a
kin
d u
sd f
sta
rtg
pist
on e
ngi
nes
0.0
020
.03
16.7
316
.73
0%
9.8
2%42
.40
%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
851
69
0Pa
rts
of e
lect
ro-t
her
mic
app
arat
us
of
hea
din
g N
o 8
5.16
0.0
047
.33
1.8
01.
80
0%
19.9
6%
-0.7
5%0
.00
N5%
19%
24%
851
712
Tele
phon
es fo
r ce
llula
r n
etw
orks
mob
ile
tele
phon
es o
r fo
r ot
her
wir
ele
0.0
07,
433.
81
19.8
219
.82
0%
18.7
8%
-14.
08
%0
.00
N5%
13%
18%
851
762
Mac
hin
es fo
r th
e re
cept
ion
, con
vers
ion
an
d tr
ansm
issi
on o
r re
gen
erat
io0
.00
2,21
5.59
1.6
81.
68
0%
1.57
%8
5.6
6%
0.0
0N
0%
17%
17%
851
769
App
arat
us
for
the
tran
smis
sion
or
rece
ptio
n o
f vo
ice,
imag
es o
r ot
her
0.0
08
85.
446
.84
6.8
40
%6
.12%
13.8
4%0
.00
N0
%17
%17
%
851
770
Part
s of
tel
eph
one
sets
, tel
eph
ones
for
cellu
lar
net
wor
ks o
r fo
r ot
her
0.0
02,
725.
307.
06
7.0
60
%1.
66
%-8
.17%
0.0
0N
0%
17%
17%
853
225
Elec
tric
al c
apac
itor
s, fi
xed,
die
lect
ric
of
pape
r or
pla
stic
s, n
es0
.00
9.4
01.
281.
280
%16
.61%
83.
18%
0.0
0N
0%
17%
17%
853
710
Boar
ds,p
anel
s,in
clu
dg n
um
eric
al c
ontr
ol
pan
els,
for
a vo
ltag
e <
=10
00
V0
.00
340
.64
4.12
4.12
0%
18.0
8%
48.4
8%
0.0
0Y
5%19
%24
%
853
720
Boar
ds,p
anel
s,in
clu
dg n
um
eric
al c
ontr
ol
pan
els,
for
a vo
ltag
e >
1,0
00
V0
.00
116
.57
2.8
12.
81
0%
21.0
4%12
1.24
%0
.00
Y8
%18
%26
%
853
89
0Pa
rts
for
use
wit
h t
he
appa
ratu
s of
hea
dg
no.
85.
35,8
5.36
or
85.
37,n
es0
.00
535.
94
1.29
1.29
0%
13.0
8%
2.36
%0
.00
N5%
19%
24%
854
411
Insu
late
d (i
ncl
udi
ng
enam
elle
d or
an
odis
ed)
win
din
g w
ire
of c
oppe
r0
.00
93.
251.
311.
310
%6
.86
%13
.22%
0.0
0Y
8%
19%
27%
854
420
Co-
axia
l cab
le a
nd
oth
er c
o-ax
ial e
lect
ric
con
duct
ors
0.0
010
7.73
1.0
81.
08
0%
8.7
8%
48.2
9%
0.0
0Y
8%
19%
27%
854
449
Elec
tric
con
duct
ors,
for
a vo
ltag
e n
ot
exce
edin
g 8
0 V
, nes
0.0
023
5.39
1.18
1.18
0%
18.8
5%17
.47%
0.0
0Y
8%
19%
27%
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
129
854
470
Opt
ical
fibr
e ca
bles
, mad
e u
p of
in
divi
dual
ly s
hea
thed
fibr
es0
.00
36.6
21.
741.
740
%1.
45%
67.
49%
0.0
0N
0%
17%
17%
854
89
0El
ectr
ical
par
ts o
f m
ach
0.0
03.
97
3.17
3.17
0%
-15.
57%
37.5
1%0
.00
N5%
18%
23%
870
120
Road
tra
ctor
s fo
r se
mi-t
raile
rs (
tru
ck
trac
tors
)0
.00
2.27
1.42
1.42
0%
21.0
3%2.
08
%0
.00
Y0
%17
%17
%
870
829
Part
s an
d ac
cess
orie
s of
bod
ies
nes
for
mot
or v
ehic
les
0.0
234
5.12
2.15
2.13
63.
35%
26.9
9%
20.1
4%0
.56
N10
%19
%29
%
870
840
Tan
smis
sion
s fo
r m
otor
veh
icle
s0
.00
558
.58
4.59
4.59
*3.
66
%42
.81%
132.
35%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%
870
89
9M
otor
veh
icle
par
ts n
es0
.09
1,6
87.
2713
.10
13.0
256
.65%
13.5
8%
1.29
%0
.43
N5%
18%
23%
871
120
Mot
orcy
cles
wit
h r
ecip
roca
tg p
isto
n e
ngi
ne
disp
lacg
> 5
0 c
c to
250
cc
0.0
04.
07
4.17
4.0
70
%38
.72%
5.73
%0
.00
N5%
38%
43%
871
410
Part
s an
d ac
cess
orie
s of
mot
orcy
cles
, in
cl.
mop
eds,
n.e
.s.
0.0
140
1.45
1.9
51.
95
_*_*
176
.67%
0.1
6N
5%19
%24
%
88
024
0A
ircr
aft
nes
of
an u
nla
den
wei
ght
exce
edin
g 15
,00
0 k
g0
.00
207.
312.
91
2.9
10
%20
.09
%-8
.56
%0
.00
N3%
4%
7%
89
019
0C
argo
ves
sels
nes
&ot
h v
esse
ls fo
r th
e tr
ansp
ort
of b
oth
per
son
s&go
ods
0.0
030
9.4
31.
83
1.8
30
%11
.19
%-4
.31%
0.0
0N
10%
0%
10%
90
158
0Su
rvey
g,hy
drog
raph
ic,o
cean
ogra
phic
,met
eoro
logi
c/ge
ophy
sica
l in
st n
es0
.00
111.
65
4.76
4.76
0%
17.7
2%28
.07%
0.0
0N
5%19
%24
%
90
159
0Pa
rts
and
acce
ssor
ies
for
use
wit
h t
he
appa
ratu
s of
hea
din
g N
o 9
0.1
50
.02
30.6
95.
775.
74_*
18.1
1%6
8.1
0%
0.2
5N
5%19
%24
%
90
1849
Inst
rum
ents
an
d ap
plia
nce
s, u
sed
in d
enta
l sc
ien
ces,
nes
2.24
44.7
119
.73
17.4
936
.90
%21
.49
%11
.13%
7.16
N5%
13%
18%
90
189
0In
stru
men
ts a
nd
appl
ian
ces
use
d in
m
edic
al o
r ve
teri
nar
y sc
ien
ces,
nes
7.45
565.
96
319
.53
312.
08
29.2
6%
12.4
6%
7.8
6%
1.4
7N
5%13
%18
%
90
3010
Inst
rum
ents
& a
ppar
atu
s fo
r m
easu
rin
g or
de
tect
ing
ion
isin
g ra
diat
ion
s0
.00
19.0
52.
292.
290
%22
.72%
84.
56%
0.0
0N
5%19
%24
%
90
3033
Inst
rum
ents
an
d ap
para
tus
for
mea
suri
ng
or c
hec
kin
g vo
ltag
e, c
urr
ent,
0.0
042
.13
1.0
81.
08
0%
12.3
8%
53.1
3%0
.00
Y8
%19
%27
%
90
309
0Pa
rts
& a
cces
s fo
r in
st &
app
for
mea
s or
ch
eckg
ele
ctri
cal q
uan
titi
es0
.00
88
.05
1.0
21.
02
0%
17.3
6%
42.7
4%0
.00
N5%
19%
24%
910
119
Wri
st-w
atch
es, b
atte
ry p
ower
ed a
nd
wit
h
case
of
prec
iou
s m
etal
, nes
0.0
06
4.0
73.
62
3.6
20
%44
.26
%6
4.44
%0
.00
N5%
13%
18%
930
630
Car
trid
ges
nes
an
d pa
rts
ther
eof
0.0
02.
07
1.0
81.
08
0%
30.7
1%0
.32%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%
940
179
Seat
s w
ith
met
al f
ram
es, n
es, o
ther
th
an
thos
e of
hea
din
g N
o 9
4.0
20
.00
10.1
91.
101.
100
%32
.56
%9
2.6
6%
0.0
0N
5%19
%24
%
940
350
Bedr
oom
fu
rnit
ure
, woo
den
, nes
0.0
156
.00
1.0
41.
03
_*27
.33%
-0.5
1%0
.42
N5%
18%
23%
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
130
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
PAK
ISTA
NI E
XPO
RTS
TO
IND
IA
HS
Co
de
Pro
du
ct la
bel
Pak
2014
Ex
po
rts
to In
dia
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Exp
ort
s
Pak
2014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Pak-
Ind
ia
CA
GR
Ind
ia
Imp
ort
C
AG
R
Pak
Exp
ort
C
AG
RB
ilate
ral
RC
ASe
nsi
tive
lis
tB
asic
Ta
riff
Para
Ta
riff
Ap
plie
d
Tari
ff
940
360
Furn
itu
re, w
oode
n, n
es0
.06
128
.77
5.10
5.0
511
.82%
27.3
3%-4
.06
%0
.68
N5%
18%
23%
940
490
Art
icle
s of
bed
din
g/fu
rnis
hin
g, n
es, s
tuff
ed
or in
tern
ally
fitt
ed0
.00
10.8
18
5.14
10.8
1-8
8.0
519
.30
%-6
.75%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%
950
66
2In
flat
able
bal
ls0
.62
5.9
019
5.56
5.28
34.9
7%24
.78
%0
.60
%0
.20
N5%
18%
23%
950
66
9Ba
lls n
es0
.02
2.57
15.5
02.
55-1
9.6
7%20
.60
%-1
.48
%0
.07
N5%
18%
23%
950
69
1G
ymn
asiu
m o
r at
hle
tics
art
icle
s an
d eq
uip
men
t0
.00
39.3
93.
293.
290
%12
.48
%33
.42%
0.0
0N
5%18
%23
%
96
019
0A
nim
al c
arvi
ng
mat
eria
l (o/
t iv
ory)
, an
d ar
ticl
es o
f th
ese
mat
eria
ls0
.00
1.16
4.46
1.16
_*49
.36
%-9
.69
%0
.03
N5%
18%
23%
96
020
0W
orkd
veg
/min
eral
car
vg m
at&
art,
carv
d ar
t n
es;w
orkd
un
har
den
d ge
lati
n0
.03
21.4
818
.97
18.9
4-1
0.5
0%
12.6
2%3.
76%
0.1
0N
5%18
%23
%
96
08
10Ba
ll po
int
pen
s0
.00
13.2
32.
362.
360
%12
.01%
0.2
8%
0.0
0Y
10%
19%
29%
96
08
20Fe
lt t
ippe
d an
d ot
her
por
ous-
tipp
ed p
ens
and
mar
kers
0.0
01.
65
1.0
21.
02
0%
5.74
%23
.35%
0.0
0N
5%19
%24
%
96
09
10Pe
nci
ls a
nd
cray
ons,
wit
h le
ads
enca
sed
in
a ri
gid
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96
190
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nit
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Com
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N0
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%
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
131
An
ne
xu
re B
: Lis
t o
f h
igh
po
ten
tia
l In
dia
n e
xp
ort
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Pa
kist
an
(33
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PO
TEN
TIA
L IN
DIA
N E
XPO
RTS
TO
PA
KIS
TAN
HS
cod
ePr
od
uct
lab
elIn
dia
20
14
Exp
ort
s to
Pa
k
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Ind
ia 2
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W
orl
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Exp
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ia 2
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Tr
ade
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ia-P
ak
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Pak
Imp
ort
C
AG
R
Ind
ia
Exp
ort
C
AG
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Bila
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ffSe
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ilk p
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at30
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743
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Y
7019
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tato
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78.3
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96
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N
7020
0To
mat
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fre
sh o
r ch
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77.2
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59
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16.3
339
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1.33
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174
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N
7031
0O
nio
ns
and
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r ch
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1512
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7139
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gum
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led,
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eth
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0.0
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213
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13.6
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13.8
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00
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80
610
Gra
pes,
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sh0
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50.0
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50.0
50
28.5
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%0
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Y
90
240
Blac
k te
a (f
erm
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par
tly
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pac
kage
s ex
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319
.19
577.
85
296
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21.5
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74%
7.71
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.28
10%
Y
90
411
Pepp
er o
f th
e ge
nu
s Pi
per,
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ube
b pe
pper
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ther
cru
shd
nor
gro
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14.9
811
6.9
614
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0%
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.49
%0
.32
4%
N
910
11G
inge
r : N
eith
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rush
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or g
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nd
10.9
648
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40.0
629
.10
_*47
.67%
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6%
N
100
119
Du
rum
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eat
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l. se
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185.
08
81.
148
1.14
0_*
_*0
.00
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Y
100
510
Mai
ze (
corn
) se
ed3.
736
5.8
431
.89
28.1
650
.15%
15.7
5%-7
.13%
24.7
40
%N
100
610
Rice
in t
he
hu
sk (
padd
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rou
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0.1
629
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62.
3029
.60
176
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%35
.49
%43
.70
%0
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9%
N
120
300
Cop
ra0
.64
15.3
015
.10
14.4
776
.33%
2.29
%50
.88
%8
.92
10%
N
120
99
1Se
eds,
veg
etab
le, n
es fo
r so
win
g8
.85
28.5
344
.63
19.6
816
.81%
11.1
8%
18.4
3%4
1.9
70
%N
120
99
9Se
eds,
fru
it a
nd
spor
es fo
r so
win
g, n
es1.
08
12.8
716
.58
11.7
933
.33%
40.6
8%
15.2
9%
13.8
30
%N
140
490
Vege
tabl
e pr
odu
cts
nes
1.8
026
.41
28.9
624
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-2.4
4%15
.93%
16.8
6%
13.1
610
%Y
1516
20Ve
g fa
ts &
oils
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acti
ons
hydr
ogen
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inte
r/re
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d,et
c,re
f'd/n
ot0
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17.1
08
3.0
916
.99
-3.7
1%1.
76%
6.8
9%
0.2
817
%Y
190
110
Prep
of
cere
als,
flou
r,st
arch
/milk
f in
fan
t u
se,p
ut
up
f re
tail
sale
0.3
86
7.8
034
.32
33.9
46
9%
19.5
4%12
.49
%2.
348
%N
190
190
Mal
t ex
trac
t&fo
od p
rep
of C
h 1
9 <
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co
coa&
hd
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1 to
040
4 <
10
% c
ocoa
2.28
21.3
78
2.72
19.0
957
.67%
5.9
4%29
.25%
5.8
38
%N
210
69
0Fo
od p
repa
rati
ons
nes
0.8
271
.00
168
.44
70.1
910
.33%
21.5
1%17
.69
%1.
02
8%
N
230
400
Soya
-bea
n o
il-ca
ke&
oth
sol
id
resi
dues
,wh
eth
er o
r n
ot g
rou
nd
or p
elle
t18
6.8
647
8.9
11,
180
.72
292.
05
16.6
4%36
.28
%4.
48
%33
.50
6%
N
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
132
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
IND
IAN
EX
POR
TS T
O P
AK
ISTA
N
HS
cod
ePr
od
uct
lab
elIn
dia
20
14
Exp
ort
s to
Pa
k
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d
Exp
ort
Ind
ia 2
014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Ind
ia-P
ak
CA
GR
Pak
Imp
ort
C
AG
R
Ind
ia
Exp
ort
C
AG
R
Bila
tera
l R
CA
Ap
plie
d
Tari
ffSe
nsi
tive
lis
t
230
641
Oil-
cake
an
d ot
her
sol
id r
esid
ues
, wh
eth
er
or n
ot g
rou
nd
or in
th
e fo
r2.
1914
.65
79.2
112
.46
_*_*
16.5
8%
5.8
410
%N
230
99
0A
nim
al f
eed
prep
arat
ion
s n
es1.
5750
.21
165.
1548
.64
50.1
3%25
.12%
36.7
9%
2.0
120
%Y
240
120
Toba
cco,
un
man
ufa
ctu
red,
par
tly
or
wh
olly
ste
mm
ed o
r st
ripp
ed0
.00
15.0
46
33.2
515
.04
033
.57%
16.4
0%
0.0
0N
N
260
111
Iron
ore
s&co
nce
ntr
ates
,oth
th
an r
oast
ed
iron
pyr
ites
,non
-agg
lom
erat
ed0
.00
22.2
46
83.
4022
.24
0-8
.50
%-9
.89
%0
.00
5%N
270
119
Coa
l nes
, wh
eth
er o
r n
ot p
ulv
eris
ed b
ut
not
agg
lom
erat
ed0
.00
466
.77
93.
229
3.22
09
.76
%5.
83%
0.0
00
%N
270
400
Cok
e&se
mi-c
oke
of c
oal,l
ign
ite
o pe
at,a
gglo
mer
atd
o n
ot,r
etor
t ca
rbon
9.2
652
.53
19.6
510
.40
17.5
9%
23.1
6%
0.6
2%9
9.7
23%
N
270
799
Oils
&ot
h p
rodu
cts
of t
he
dist
illat
ion
of
hig
h t
emp
coal
tar
etc
nes
0.0
012
.09
456
.61
12.0
90
16.1
8%
65.
48
%0
.00
6%
N
2710
12Li
ght
petr
oleu
m o
ils a
nd
prep
arat
ion
s0
.02
2,29
1.33
19,7
42.7
92,
291.
32_*
22.0
5%_*
0.0
03%
N
2710
19O
ther
pet
role
um
oils
an
d pr
epar
atio
ns
21.9
36
,26
6.7
240
,68
2.15
6,2
44.7
9-3
.73%
14.7
5%26
.05%
0.1
15%
N
2711
19Pe
trol
eum
gas
es a
nd
oth
er g
aseo
us
hydr
ocar
bon
s n
es, l
iqu
efied
0.0
06
4.8
825
2.70
64.
88
012
.76
%31
.33%
0.0
03%
N
2713
20Pe
trol
eum
bit
um
en0
.00
12.0
042
.12
12.0
00
31.0
1%2.
19%
0.0
015
%N
280
300
Car
bon
(ca
rbon
bla
cks
and
oth
er fo
rms
of
carb
on, n
es)
0.0
312
.30
132.
88
12.2
76
.84%
11.4
3%9
.15%
0.0
5N
Y
2833
29Su
lph
ates
of
met
al n
es0
.18
15.0
930
.98
14.9
138
.36
%29
.50
%8
.85%
1.23
5%N
290
243
P-xy
len
e11
3.6
634
9.3
41,
027
.79
235.
68
1.74
%3.
78%
13.9
3%23
.41
5%N
290
250
Styr
ene
0.0
09
0.4
510
.76
10.7
60
10.4
2%34
.20
%0
.00
5%N
290
511
Met
han
ol (
met
hyl a
lcoh
ol)
0.0
149
.80
21.6
721
.66
_*12
.23%
39.0
0%
0.0
85%
N
290
516
Oct
anol
(oct
yl a
lcoh
ol)
and
isom
ers
ther
eof
0.0
041
.07
11.8
611
.86
012
.40
%32
.02%
0.0
05%
N
290
531
Ethy
len
e gl
ycol
(et
han
edio
l)0
.05
202.
91
87.
238
7.18
-13.
99
%-1
.90
%1.
09
%0
.11
0%
N
2915
39A
ceti
c ac
id e
ster
s n
es0
.24
13.7
89
5.54
13.5
478
.03%
24.8
2%18
.00
%0
.53
5%N
2916
12A
cryl
ic a
cid
este
rs0
.00
18.9
710
.91
10.9
10
4.31
%12
.57%
0.0
05%
N
2922
19A
min
o-al
coh
ols
nes
, th
eir
eth
ers
and
este
rs; s
alts
th
ereo
f0
.74
15.0
747
.76
14.3
3-0
.31%
12.0
9%
21.0
6%
3.28
5%N
2922
49A
min
o-ac
ids
nes
, an
d th
eir
este
rs; s
alts
th
ereo
f0
.59
29.4
56
8.8
328
.86
23.2
2%13
.78
%36
.87%
1.8
15%
N
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
133
2924
29C
yclic
am
ides
an
d th
eir
deri
vati
ves,
nes
; sa
lts
ther
eof
1.55
20.3
510
9.4
818
.80
29.7
0%
10.1
5%38
.68
%3.
00
NY
2926
90
Nit
rile
-fu
nct
ion
com
pou
nds
, nes
0.0
234
.69
41.7
634
.67
24.9
3%0
.16
%18
.78
%0
.10
5%N
2929
10Is
ocya
nat
es0
.16
34.6
324
.30
24.1
425
.29
%6
.75%
16.0
6%
1.4
15%
N
2930
40M
eth
ion
ine
0.4
635
.68
10.7
610
.30
417.
35%
14.6
4%47
.28
%8
.95
5%N
2930
90
Org
ano-
sulp
hu
r co
mpo
un
ds, n
es0
.20
15.2
959
.93
15.0
833
.91%
-3.9
6%
17.6
1%0
.72
5%N
2932
99
Het
eroc
yclic
com
pou
nds
wit
h o
xyge
n
het
ero-
atom
s n
es1.
99
20.0
315
7.15
18.0
459
.97%
10.7
7%56
.32%
2.6
85%
N
2933
29H
eter
ocyc
lic c
ompd
s cn
tg a
n u
nfu
sed
imid
azol
e rg
in t
he
stru
ctu
re,n
es2.
69
13.7
715
2.54
11.0
811
.33%
14.8
4%19
.86
%3.
745%
N
2933
39H
eter
ocyc
lic c
ompd
s cn
tg a
n u
nfu
sed
pyri
din
e ri
ng
in t
he
stru
ctu
re,n
es5.
80
30.3
232
3.8
824
.52
34.3
8%
10.6
3%36
.33%
3.79
6%
N
2933
49H
eter
ocyc
lic c
ompo
un
ds w
ith
nit
roge
n
het
ero-
atom
[s]
only
, con
tain
ing
i1.
05
16.7
910
1.13
15.7
511
.04%
19.1
7%34
.83%
2.19
NN
2933
59H
eter
cycl
com
pds
cntg
pyr
imid
in r
ng/
pipe
razi
ne
rng,
nes
;nu
clei
c ac
id&
sa1.
1522
.83
179
.90
21.6
97.
11%
7.0
9%
29.6
0%
1.35
11%
Y
2933
99
Het
eroc
yclic
com
pou
nds
wit
h n
itro
gen
h
eter
o-at
om[s
] on
ly (
excl
. th
ose
3.6
121
.72
439
.10
18.1
119
.59
%3.
16%
43.3
2%1.
745%
N
2934
99
Nu
clei
c ac
ids
and
thei
r sa
lts,
wh
eth
er o
r n
ot c
hem
ical
ly d
efin
ed; h
ete
3.18
53.6
638
2.0
350
.48
48.2
5%8
.29
%55
.44
%1.
76N
N
2935
00
Sulp
hon
amid
es in
bu
lk2.
06
19.4
516
1.33
17.4
028
.25%
10.7
4%19
.30
%2.
70N
Y
2941
50Er
yth
rom
ycin
an
d it
s de
riva
tive
s, in
bu
lk;
salt
s th
ereo
f4.
2917
.50
94.
80
13.2
112
.58
%6
.26
%9
.85%
9.5
7N
N
2941
90
An
tibi
otic
s n
es, i
n b
ulk
8.1
56
5.55
581.
84
57.4
012
.75%
6.2
9%
18.3
7%2.
97
NY
300
220
Vac
cin
es, h
um
an u
se10
.28
288
.75
577.
97
278
.47
36.0
6%
49.1
3%23
.91%
3.77
5%N
300
339
Hor
mon
es n
es,f
orm
ula
td,n
ot c
ntg
an
tibi
otic
s,in
bu
lk,o
/t c
ontr
acep
tive
s0
.00
10.0
19
1.15
10.0
119
.04%
3.56
%4.
59%
0.0
06
%N
300
420
An
tibi
otic
s n
es, i
n d
osag
e0
.25
25.7
99
11.6
025
.54
-3.1
7%2.
40%
16.8
0%
0.0
6N
N
300
431
Insu
lin, i
n d
osag
e0
.40
24.6
810
8.3
724
.27
59.6
4%42
.68
%15
.63%
0.7
9N
N
300
439
Hor
mon
es n
es, n
ot c
onta
inin
g an
tibi
otic
s,
in d
osag
e,o/
t co
ntr
acep
tive
0.0
017
.59
78.3
217
.59
06
.79
%17
.00
%0
.00
6%
N
300
490
Med
icam
ents
nes
, in
dos
age
22.3
327
9.6
28
,28
8.8
825
7.28
30.0
4%12
.03%
23.3
4%
0.5
714
%Y
300
610
Sutu
re m
atls
,ste
rile
;lam
inar
ia,s
teri
le;h
aem
osta
tics
,ste
rile
,su
rg/d
entl
0.0
510
.09
22.1
210
.04
_*12
.73%
14.1
2%0
.51
8%
Y
310
530
Dia
mm
oniu
m p
hos
phat
e, in
pac
kage
s w
eigh
ing
mor
e th
an 1
0 k
g0
.00
477.
7210
.63
10.6
30
11.6
0%
83.
80
%0
.00
0%
N
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
134
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
IND
IAN
EX
POR
TS T
O P
AK
ISTA
N
HS
cod
ePr
od
uct
lab
elIn
dia
20
14
Exp
ort
s to
Pa
k
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d
Exp
ort
Ind
ia 2
014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Ind
ia-P
ak
CA
GR
Pak
Imp
ort
C
AG
R
Ind
ia
Exp
ort
C
AG
R
Bila
tera
l R
CA
Ap
plie
d
Tari
ffSe
nsi
tive
lis
t
320
210
Syn
thet
ic o
rgan
ic t
ann
ing
subs
tan
ces
3.6
017
.90
48.4
114
.30
41.8
5%4.
86
%13
.60
%15
.72
5%N
320
415
Vat
dye
s an
d pr
epar
atio
ns
base
d th
ereo
n1.
3730
.65
54.5
329
.28
18.8
5%9
.11%
0.3
3%5.
303%
N
320
416
Reac
tive
dye
s an
d pr
epar
atio
ns
base
d th
ereo
n37
.77
89
.46
68
3.6
151
.69
22.5
9%
10.2
3%19
.00
%11
.70
15%
Y
320
417
Syn
thet
ic o
rgan
ic p
igm
ents
an
d pr
epar
atio
ns
base
d th
ereo
n8
.94
25.4
96
13.9
916
.55
24.8
5%3.
44%
16.1
8%
3.0
815
%Y
320
611
Tita
niu
m p
igm
ents
an
d pr
eps,
>8
0%
ti
tan
ium
oxi
de0
.26
54.1
323
.99
23.7
322
.32%
8.0
1%24
.81%
2.25
5%N
320
89
0Pa
ints
& v
arn
i bas
ed o
n p
olym
ers
diss
olv
in
a n
on a
queo
us
solv
nes
0.6
415
.16
18.9
214
.52
34.9
2%6
.23%
24.2
7%7.
1312
%N
3215
19Pr
inti
ng
ink,
nes
0.1
712
.74
113.
62
12.5
811
3.11
%10
.73%
5.9
9%
0.3
118
%Y
330
210
Mix
ture
s of
odo
rife
rou
s su
bsta
nce
s fo
r th
e fo
od o
r dr
ink
indu
stri
es0
.22
27.6
635
.60
27.4
39
.90
%20
.76
%25
.44
%1.
316
%N
330
290
Mix
ture
s of
odo
rife
rou
s su
bst
f u
se a
s ra
w
mat
eria
ls in
indu
stry
,nes
8.7
238
.25
185.
95
29.5
246
.39
%8
.61%
22.0
8%
9.9
37%
N
330
510
Hai
r sh
ampo
os1.
96
31.3
724
.30
22.3
478
.36
%10
.98
%17
.99
%17
.03
25%
Y
340
111
Toile
t so
ap&
prep
,sh
aped
;pap
ers&
non
wov
en
s im
preg
wit
h s
oap
toile
t u
se0
.52
18.2
370
.46
17.7
141
.53%
18.7
4%14
.94
%1.
55N
Y
340
120
Soap
nes
0.0
010
.74
13.6
610
.74
09
.28
%8
.58
%0
.00
25%
Y
340
211
An
ion
ic s
urf
ace-
acti
ve a
gen
ts4.
4531
.87
111.
7727
.42
51.6
5%1.
81%
32.6
0%
8.4
315
%Y
340
213
Non
-ion
ic s
urf
ace
acti
ve a
gen
ts6
.03
32.0
311
9.9
026
.01
87.
88
%7.
25%
76.1
0%
10.6
420
%Y
340
290
Surf
ace-
acti
ve p
repa
rati
ons,
was
hin
g an
d cl
ean
ing
prep
arat
ion
s, n
es0
.23
16.3
18
1.9
116
.08
6.6
8%
8.5
3%25
.82%
0.5
9N
N
340
490
Art
ifici
al a
nd
prep
ared
wax
es, n
es0
.13
11.7
017
.36
11.5
724
.35%
10.6
7%14
.66
%1.
563%
N
350
69
1A
dhes
ives
bas
ed o
n r
ubb
er o
r pl
asti
cs, n
es0
.56
12.7
241
.22
12.1
66
0.2
4%18
.02%
17.0
6%
2.8
77%
N
350
790
Enzy
mes
nes
; pre
pare
d en
zym
es n
es0
.85
24.6
342
.97
23.7
828
.30
%16
.00
%15
.66
%4
.20
6%
N
380
89
1In
sect
icid
es3.
64
57.9
778
4.43
54.3
3-6
.77%
3.43
%9
.41%
0.9
811
%N
380
89
2Fu
ngi
cide
s0
.66
28.2
635
1.0
727
.60
-12.
76%
12.6
8%
22.0
9%
0.4
00
%N
380
89
3H
erbi
cide
s, a
nti
-spr
outi
ng
prod
uct
s an
d pl
ant-
grow
th r
egu
lato
rs1.
3452
.76
333.
06
51.4
21.
63%
4.9
3%33
.47%
0.8
55%
N
380
99
1Fi
nis
hg
agen
ts,d
ye c
arri
ers&
oth
pr
ep,n
es,f
or u
se in
th
e te
xtile
indu
st1.
3328
.61
39.1
427
.27
50.7
4%7.
13%
14.5
8%
7.21
8%
N
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
135
3811
21Lu
bric
atg
oil a
ddit
ives
cn
tg p
et o
ils/o
ils
obta
ind
from
bit
u m
iner
als
0.0
050
.51
34.0
934
.09
_*12
.05%
30.7
1%0
.02
5%N
3811
29Lu
bric
atin
g oi
l add
itiv
es, n
es0
.00
17.3
215
.44
15.4
40
16.4
7%42
.86
%0
.00
5%N
3811
90
Prep
ared
add
itiv
es fo
r m
iner
al o
ils o
r fo
r ot
her
sim
ilar
liqu
ids,
nes
0.1
319
.55
50.6
419
.43
-10
.81%
5.8
8%
37.7
5%0
.53
5%N
3817
00
Mix
ed a
lkyl
ben
zen
es a
nd
mix
ed
alky
lnap
hth
alen
es p
rodu
ced
by t
he
alky
la26
.81
90
.10
59.7
032
.89
81.
47%
28.0
3%4.
66
%9
5.0
75%
N
3822
00
Com
posi
te d
iagn
osti
c or
labo
rato
ry
reag
ents
, nes
0.7
059
.11
38.0
537
.35
42.0
4%19
.55%
17.4
9%
3.9
18
%N
3823
19In
dust
rial
fat
ty a
cids
, aci
d oi
ls n
es0
.08
32.5
08
6.4
532
.42
_*5.
45%
15.5
7%0
.20
14%
Y
3824
90
Ch
emic
al/a
llied
indu
stry
pre
para
tion
s/pr
ods
nes
6.1
917
1.43
203.
7716
5.25
30.3
5%11
.29
%23
.93%
6.4
36
%N
390
110
Poly
ethy
len
e h
avin
g a
spec
ific
grav
ity
of
less
th
an 0
.94
2.8
830
4.47
54.0
051
.11
-2.3
8%
13.1
6%
1.9
2%11
.30
5%N
390
120
Poly
ethy
len
e h
avin
g a
spec
ific
grav
ity
of
0.9
4 or
mor
e21
.12
221.
94
57.9
136
.79
63.
79%
7.33
%-1
4.0
5%77
.20
5%N
390
190
Poly
mer
s of
eth
ylen
e n
es, i
n p
rim
ary
form
s0
.60
21.9
726
.78
21.3
812
.07%
26.2
6%
-2.7
4%
4.7
25%
N
390
210
Poly
prop
ylen
e10
8.8
145
8.3
81,
209
.48
349
.57
16.5
5%11
.23%
11.6
9%
19.0
45%
N
390
69
0A
cryl
ic p
olym
ers
nes
, in
pri
mar
y fo
rms
1.42
43.2
96
5.72
41.8
619
.95%
8.3
3%17
.59
%4
.59
12%
Y
390
720
Poly
eth
ers
nes
0.5
011
0.7
36
6.0
86
5.58
0.8
2%14
.09
%48
.74
%1.
61
5%N
390
760
Poly
ethy
len
e te
reph
thal
ate
0.0
045
.76
517.
7545
.76
019
.21%
9.7
1%0
.00
NY
390
950
Poly
ure
than
es in
pri
mar
y fo
rms
0.5
326
.90
34.6
426
.37
90
.80
%18
.53%
30.4
7%3.
225%
N
3910
00
Silic
ones
in p
rim
ary
form
s5.
5431
.90
53.4
326
.35
64.
16%
12.0
4%29
.54
%21
.97
5%N
3912
31C
arbo
xym
ethy
lcel
lulo
se a
nd
its
salt
s0
.39
17.7
321
.51
17.3
44.
42%
17.8
2%42
.43%
3.8
56
%N
3919
10Se
lf-a
dhes
ive
plat
es,s
hee
ts,fi
lm e
tc,o
f pl
asti
c in
rol
ls <
20 c
m w
ide
0.0
413
.88
29.1
513
.84
1.9
2%12
.28
%4.
71%
0.3
018
%Y
3919
90
Self
-adh
esiv
e pl
ates
, sh
eets
, film
etc
, of
plas
tic
nes
0.2
830
.78
32.0
130
.51
57.3
4%9
.60
%17
.92%
1.8
520
%Y
3920
10Fi
lm a
nd
shee
t et
c, n
on-c
ellu
lar
etc,
of
poly
mer
s of
ethy
len
e0
.03
17.4
537
.11
17.4
2-1
0.6
1%15
.96
%5.
16%
0.1
7N
Y
3920
20Fi
lm a
nd
shee
t et
c, n
on-c
ellu
lar
etc,
of
poly
mer
s of
pro
pyle
ne
0.0
013
.57
274.
86
13.5
7-2
7.9
8-4
.46
%34
.55%
0.0
0N
Y
3920
49Pl
ates
, sh
eets
, film
, foi
l an
d st
rip,
of
non
-ce
llula
r po
lym
ers
of v
iny
0.0
512
.17
44.5
812
.13
12.2
2%6
.35%
17.6
6%
0.2
3N
Y
3921
90
Film
an
d sh
eet
etc,
nes
of
plas
tics
0.1
815
.52
152.
61
15.3
4-5
.24%
9.9
9%
31.4
4%
0.2
5N
Y
3923
50St
oppe
rs, l
ids,
cap
s an
d ot
her
clo
sure
s of
pl
asti
cs0
.03
12.4
047
.97
12.3
740
.97%
14.8
4%17
.04
%0
.14
NY
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
136
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
IND
IAN
EX
POR
TS T
O P
AK
ISTA
N
HS
cod
ePr
od
uct
lab
elIn
dia
20
14
Exp
ort
s to
Pa
k
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d
Exp
ort
Ind
ia 2
014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Ind
ia-P
ak
CA
GR
Pak
Imp
ort
C
AG
R
Ind
ia
Exp
ort
C
AG
R
Bila
tera
l R
CA
Ap
plie
d
Tari
ffSe
nsi
tive
lis
t
3926
90
Art
icle
s of
pla
stic
s or
of
oth
er m
ater
ials
of
Nos
39
.01
to 3
9.1
4 n
es1.
80
40.9
950
6.5
239
.19
34.2
2%10
.08
%19
.91%
0.7
5N
N
4011
10Pn
eum
atic
tir
e n
ew o
f ru
bber
f m
otor
car
in
cl s
tati
on w
agon
s&ra
cg c
ars
1.8
018
.26
98
.62
16.4
6-0
.43%
2.19
%14
.42%
3.8
725
%Y
4011
20Pn
eum
atic
tir
es n
ew o
f ru
bber
for
buse
s or
lorr
ies
26.8
619
0.1
857
5.42
163.
323.
03%
9.6
9%
8.6
6%
9.8
813
%Y
4011
61
Pneu
mat
ic t
yres
, new
, of
rubb
er, h
avin
g a
"her
rin
g-bo
ne"
or
sim
ilar
tr3.
7214
.06
464.
01
10.3
43.
47%
12.2
3%6
5.8
6%
1.70
20%
Y
4014
10H
ygie
nic
o p
har
mac
euti
cal a
rtic
les
of
rubb
er e
tc s
hea
th c
ontr
acep
tive
s0
.00
11.1
144
.81
11.1
0-1
0.0
5%13
.41%
4.9
5%0
.01
5%N
4016
93
Gas
kets
, was
her
s an
d ot
her
sea
ls o
f vu
lcan
ised
ru
bber
0.0
215
.48
67.
61
15.4
528
.81%
17.6
7%10
.41%
0.0
8N
Y
4016
99
Art
icle
s of
vu
lcan
ised
ru
bber
nes
, oth
er
than
har
d ru
bber
1.26
19.4
721
3.0
018
.21
32.5
9%
13.6
9%
25.2
7%1.
25N
Y
440
729
Lum
ber,
tro
pica
l har
dwoo
d n
es, s
awn
le
ngt
hw
ise
>6
mm
0.0
545
.76
20.7
520
.70
9.5
0%
21.9
6%
12.3
5%0
.51
0%
N
480
255
Un
coat
ed p
aper
an
d pa
perb
oard
, of
a ki
nd
use
d fo
r w
riti
ng,
pri
nti
ng
or0
.00
25.8
339
.81
25.8
30
10.1
3%20
.91%
0.0
0N
Y
480
262
Un
coat
ed p
aper
an
d pa
perb
oard
, of
a ki
nd
use
d fo
r w
riti
ng,
pri
nti
ng
or0
.00
21.7
321
.28
21.2
7_*
23.4
1%32
.39
%0
.03
NY
4810
92
Mu
lti-p
ly p
aper
an
d pa
perb
oard
, coa
ted
on
one
or b
oth
sid
es w
ith
kao
li0
.00
97.
1917
.53
17.5
30
14.5
1%50
.70
%0
.00
NY
4811
41Se
lf-a
dhes
ive
pape
r an
d pa
perb
oard
, su
rfac
e-co
lou
red,
su
rfac
e-de
cora
te0
.15
12.7
431
.74
12.5
96
8.4
6%
9.7
8%
46.5
2%1.
03
NY
4811
59Pa
per
and
pape
rboa
rd, s
urf
ace-
colo
ure
d,
surf
ace-
deco
rate
d or
pri
nte
d,0
.00
36.8
879
.98
36.8
80
22.3
6%
42.2
8%
0.0
0N
N
490
199
Book
s, b
roch
ure
s, le
aflet
s an
d si
mila
r pr
inte
d m
atte
r, n
es0
.02
29.5
831
.93
29.5
6-1
2.32
%13
.64%
15.1
7%0
.12
0%
N
490
700
Un
usd
pos
tage
,rev
enu
e st
amps
;ch
equ
e fo
rms,
ban
knot
es,b
ond
cert
ific,
etc
0.0
032
2.38
40.6
240
.62
09
8.5
3%6
2.8
3%0
.00
5%N
500
790
Wov
en f
abri
cs o
f si
lk, n
es0
.00
19.7
710
.71
10.7
10
82.
59%
-12.
60
%0
.00
6%
N
520
100
Cot
ton
, not
car
ded
or c
ombe
d25
9.0
252
1.6
42,
821
.65
262.
63
20.3
3%-1
.24%
31.6
6%
19.4
30
%N
520
851
Plai
n w
eave
cot
ton
fab
rics
,>/=
85%
, not
m
ore
than
10
0 g
/m2,
pri
nte
d0
.01
14.3
412
5.59
14.3
3-2
2.35
%48
.79
%17
.26
%0
.01
8%
N
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
137
530
310
Jute
an
d ot
her
tex
tile
bas
t fi
bres
, raw
or
rett
ed0
.08
39.2
815
.66
15.5
7-6
9.1
3%2.
72%
23.0
6%
1.12
0%
N
540
233
Text
ure
d ya
rn n
es,o
f po
lyes
ter
fila
men
ts,n
ot p
ut
up
for
reta
il sa
le0
.49
214.
268
02.
08
213.
7770
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.13
NN
540
247
Fila
men
t ya
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ent
of <
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0.0
06
6.0
428
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28.8
00
9.1
8%
41.4
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NN
540
331
Yarn
of
visc
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rayo
n fi
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gle,
u
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ot p
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0.0
810
2.54
26.1
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.04
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.60
%5.
10%
0.6
25%
N
540
752
Wov
en f
abri
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f te
xtu
red
poly
este
r fi
lam
ents
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es0
.29
55.3
715
4.14
55.0
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15%
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550
130
Fila
men
t to
w o
f ac
rylic
or
mod
acry
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33.9
316
.86
16.8
60
8.5
8%
3.59
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.00
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550
320
Stap
le fi
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of
poly
este
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ot c
arde
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co
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165.
4327
5.9
916
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6%
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0.0
1N
N
550
330
Stap
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bres
of
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r m
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ca
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com
bed
0.0
633
.94
32.0
832
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51.3
8%
14.7
9%
9.5
9%
0.3
65%
N
550
410
Stap
le fi
bres
of
visc
ose,
not
car
ded
or
com
bed
32.7
018
3.8
620
8.6
815
1.16
61.
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9.9
2%29
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5%N
550
921
Yarn
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poly
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52.9
645
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39.5
713
8.6
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.68
%13
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28.2
55%
N
550
951
Yarn
of
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r st
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ixd
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rti
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121
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152.
1816
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85.
23%
113.
79%
6.4
4%
8.2
25%
N
5510
11Ya
rn,>
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f ar
tifi
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sta
ple
fibr
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.86
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142
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10.8
535
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26.0
9%
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4.2
65%
N
5516
12W
oven
fab
rics
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tain
ing>
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f ar
tifi
cial
sta
ple
fibr
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yed
0.0
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12.8
912
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019
1.71
%27
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%0
.00
NN
560
312
Non
wov
ens,
man
-mad
e fi
lam
ents
w
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25-7
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0.0
912
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56.1
812
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9.5
4%
0.3
46
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560
500
Met
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exti
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69
17.3
611
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10.0
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6%
N
590
310
Text
ile f
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preg
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pol
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0.0
414
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266
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14.2
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30.8
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26.9
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8%
N
630
140
Blan
kets
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N
630
90
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640
399
Foot
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ute
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ath
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023
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640
419
Foot
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24.1
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Y
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
138
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
IND
IAN
EX
POR
TS T
O P
AK
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HS
cod
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k
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18.6
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Y
69
079
0Ti
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42.2
432
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32.6
60
68
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0.0
0N
N
69
08
90
Tile
s, c
ube
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d si
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0.0
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56.9
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69
1110
Tabl
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tch
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12.4
212
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43%
3.8
4%
0.0
025
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710
812
Gol
d in
un
wro
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rms
non
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etar
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.00
27.3
92,
432.
63
27.3
90
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187.
07%
0.0
05%
N
7113
19A
rtic
les
of je
wel
lry&
pt t
her
of o
f/o
prec
met
w
/n p
latd
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pre
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29.9
611
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29.9
625
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15.2
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NN
720
711
Sem
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35.5
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30.6
40
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N
720
810
Hot
rol
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iron
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13.4
00
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Hot
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0.0
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00
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0.0
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N
720
838
Hot
rol
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l >6
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mm
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85.
2112
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85.
210
97.
58%
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8%
0.0
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N
720
839
Hot
rol
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l >6
00
mm
x
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153.
83
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68
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720
851
Hot
rol
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00
mm
x
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0.0
017
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276
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17.4
70
3.44
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.44
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.00
NN
720
916
Col
d ro
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iron
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1-3m
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50.9
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50.9
60
8.3
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NN
720
917
Col
d ro
lled
iron
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00
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x
0.5
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m0
.00
31.2
812
5.23
31.2
8-1
3.47
%21
.16
%11
.47%
0.0
0N
N
720
918
Col
d ro
lled
iron
/ste
el, c
oils
>6
00
mm
x
<0
.5m
m0
.00
23.7
321
8.5
623
.73
0-5
.12%
3.0
6%
0.0
0N
N
720
927
Col
d ro
ll ir
on/s
teel
, not
coi
l>6
00
mm
x
0.5
-1m
m0
.00
20.3
010
.27
10.2
70
7.49
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34%
0.0
015
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7210
12Fl
at r
olld
pro
d,i/n
as,p
latd
or
coat
d w
ith
ti
n,>
/=6
00
mm
wid
e,<
0.5
mm
th
k0
.00
35.1
957
.70
35.1
90
8.9
6%
3.32
%0
.00
15%
Y
7210
49Fl
at r
olle
d pr
od,i/
nas
,pla
ted
or c
oate
d w
ith
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nc,
>/=
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ide,
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0.0
017
0.2
09
93.
2717
0.2
00
7.9
9%
1.29
%0
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NN
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
139
7210
70Fl
at r
olle
d pr
od,i/
nas
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nte
d,va
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hed
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plas
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ated
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60
0m
m w
ide
0.0
021
.50
319
.79
21.5
00
9.0
1%13
7.0
8%
0.0
0N
N
7213
91
Hot
rol
led
bar/
rod,
irre
gula
r co
ils, <
14m
m
diam
0.0
032
.74
81.
5032
.74
012
.14%
11.7
6%
0.0
015
%Y
7219
90
Flat
rol
led
prod
, sta
inle
ss s
teel
, 60
0m
m o
r m
ore
wid
e, n
es0
.00
58.6
68
9.4
758
.66
-44.
37%
7.57
%30
.11%
0.0
15%
N
7224
90
Sem
i-fin
ish
ed p
rodu
cts
of a
lloy
stee
l o/t
st
ain
less
0.0
025
.02
75.0
125
.02
08
3.44
%17
.82%
0.0
05%
N
7225
11Fl
at-r
olle
d al
loy
stee
l, >
60
0m
m, g
rain
or
ien
ted
0.0
016
.18
17.9
616
.18
011
.58
%49
.00
%0
.00
0%
N
7225
19Fl
at-r
olle
d al
loy
stee
l, >
60
0m
m, n
es0
.02
15.5
211
.32
11.3
0_*
6.2
8%
33.7
7%0
.39
0%
N
7225
30Fl
at r
olle
d pr
od,a
s,o/
t st
ain
less
,in c
oils
,nfw
th
n h
r,w
>/=
60
0m
m,n
es0
.00
171.
02
45.9
845
.98
018
0.5
6%
34.0
8%
0.0
05%
N
7227
90
Bars
&ro
ds,a
lloy
stee
l,o/t
sta
inle
ss h
r,in
ir
regu
larl
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ils,n
es0
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27.5
613
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13.1
50
64.
75%
12.3
1%0
.00
NN
730
419
Lin
e pi
pe o
f a
kin
d u
sed
for
oil o
r ga
s pi
pelin
es, s
eam
less
, of
iron
o0
.00
13.6
611
8.2
113
.65
_*-1
3.59
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59%
0.0
015
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730
423
Dri
ll pi
pe, s
eam
less
, of
a ki
nd
use
d in
dr
illin
g fo
r oi
l or
gas,
of
ir0
.00
67.
7776
.42
67.
770
55.5
0%
10.7
0%
0.0
015
%Y
730
429
Cas
ings
,,tu
bin
g, d
rill
pipe
, for
oil
drill
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use
0.0
058
.04
58.2
258
.04
012
.36
%16
.03%
0.0
020
%Y
730
439
Tube
s,pi
pe &
hol
low
pro
file
s,i o
r n
as,s
mls
,of
circ
cro
ss s
ecti
on,n
es0
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26.1
918
.36
18.3
60
24.5
7%31
.00
%0
.00
15%
Y
730
490
Tube
s, p
ipe
& h
ollo
w p
rofi
les,
iron
or
stee
l, sm
ls, n
es0
.00
11.7
96
2.8
211
.79
08
.67%
28.8
3%0
.00
20%
Y
730
640
Tube
,pip
e&h
ollo
w p
rofi
le,s
tain
less
st
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eldd
,of
circ
cro
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ect,
nes
0.0
216
.42
71.9
916
.40
_*11
.07%
22.8
8%
0.0
6N
N
730
729
Fitt
ings
pip
e or
tu
be o
f st
ain
less
ste
el, n
es0
.00
10.3
032
.68
10.3
0_*
26.7
3%14
.54
%0
.01
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730
799
Fitt
ings
, pip
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tu
be, i
ron
or
stee
l, n
es0
.02
31.8
58
1.9
231
.83
_*16
.88
%22
.66
%0
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8%
N
730
820
Tow
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and
latt
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mas
ts, i
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or
stee
l0
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21.3
727
4.31
21.3
70
9.3
7%18
.92%
0.0
0N
Y
730
89
0St
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ure
s&pa
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of s
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hea
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o.9
406
)0
.01
42.5
241
8.0
342
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-24.
43%
22.4
2%16
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0.0
1N
Y
7318
15Bo
lts
o sc
rew
s n
es,w
ith
o w
ith
out
thei
r n
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o w
ash
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iron
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0.0
013
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325.
5813
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61.
78%
11.5
5%14
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NN
7326
90
Art
icle
s, ir
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nes
0.0
133
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454.
65
33.2
6-7
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15.7
7%15
.42%
0.0
118
%Y
740
311
Cop
per
cath
odes
an
d se
ctio
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of c
ath
odes
u
nw
rou
ght
0.0
076
.84
2,57
8.0
676
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-50
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%5.
62%
22.0
2%0
.00
0%
N
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
140
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
IND
IAN
EX
POR
TS T
O P
AK
ISTA
N
HS
cod
ePr
od
uct
lab
elIn
dia
20
14
Exp
ort
s to
Pa
k
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d
Exp
ort
Ind
ia 2
014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Ind
ia-P
ak
CA
GR
Pak
Imp
ort
C
AG
R
Ind
ia
Exp
ort
C
AG
R
Bila
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l R
CA
Ap
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Tari
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t
740
710
Bars
, rod
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s of
refi
ned
cop
per
0.0
015
.00
18.0
915
.00
18.6
4%2.
40%
16.0
9%
0.0
07%
N
760
110
Alu
min
ium
un
wro
ugh
t, n
ot a
lloye
d0
.00
35.6
71,
126
.82
35.6
7-2
3.24
%0
.60
%27
.14
%0
.00
0%
N
760
120
Alu
min
ium
un
wro
ugh
t, a
lloye
d0
.10
18.6
421
2.50
18.5
3_*
4.75
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0%
N
760
612
Plat
e,sh
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or s
trip
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r sq
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th
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0.8
711
.84
157.
1710
.96
37.5
7%17
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%13
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1.18
6%
N
760
719
Foil,
alu
min
ium
, not
bac
ked
and
not
ex
ceed
ing
0.2
mm
th
ick,
nes
0.2
417
.39
40.9
117
.16
15.6
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9.0
1%1.
2212
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760
720
Foil,
alu
min
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ked,
not
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ing
0.0
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13.4
613
.46
-31.
58%
1.8
9%
-1.7
6%
0.0
020
%Y
7612
90
Con
tain
er,a
lum
,cap
<30
0L,
lined
/hea
t in
sul/n
t,n
/ftd
w/m
ech
/th
erm
o eq
uip
0.1
819
.49
38.8
519
.32
41.0
7%13
.89
%26
.08
%0
.96
13%
Y
7616
99
Art
icle
s of
alu
min
ium
, nes
0.0
212
.19
347.
7012
.18
23.1
1%6
.79
%30
.39
%0
.01
7%N
780
110
Lead
refi
ned
un
wro
ugh
t1.
05
102.
62
126
.08
101.
5721
.45%
26.0
7%49
.99
%1.
775%
N
820
719
Rock
dri
llin
g/ea
rth
bor
ing
tool
s, n
es, p
arts
0.0
125
.42
94.
4425
.41
_*18
.78
%59
.63%
0.0
35%
N
840
211
Wat
ertu
be b
oile
rs w
ith
a s
team
pro
duct
ion
ex
ceed
ing
45T
per
hou
r0
.00
20.6
777
.98
20.6
70
31.1
8%
31.8
0%
0.0
016
%Y
840
212
Wat
ertu
be b
oile
rs w
ith
a s
team
pro
duct
ion
n
ot e
xcee
din
g 45
T pe
r h
our
0.5
312
.11
33.1
111
.59
_*35
.56
%17
.85%
3.36
20%
Y
840
219
Vap
our
gen
erat
ing
boile
rs n
es, i
ncl
udi
ng
hybr
id b
oile
rs0
.00
25.3
636
.87
25.3
60
57.6
7%5.
89
%0
.00
18%
Y
840
68
2Tu
rbin
es n
es, o
utp
ut
, 40
MW
4.10
17.3
818
.34
13.2
99
5.0
7%18
.72%
31.4
7%4
7.27
5%N
840
69
0Pa
rts
of s
team
an
d va
pou
r tu
rbin
es1.
726
9.1
151
.87
50.1
56
9.3
7%35
.96
%36
.85%
7.0
25%
N
840
710
Air
craf
t en
gin
es, s
park
-ign
itio
n
reci
proc
atin
g or
rot
ary
type
0.0
011
.98
617
.94
11.9
80
5.29
%74
.63%
0.0
05%
N
840
89
0En
gin
es, d
iese
l nes
0.0
011
.18
311.
92
11.1
80
8.2
3%13
.61%
0.0
0N
Y
840
99
1Pa
rts
for
spar
k-ig
nit
ion
typ
e en
gin
es n
es0
.00
56.9
728
3.34
56.9
70
19.3
9%
11.6
4%
0.0
0N
Y
840
99
9Pa
rts
for
dies
el a
nd
sem
i-die
sel e
ngi
nes
0.0
18
0.4
958
4.9
18
0.4
9-8
.98
%7.
68
%14
.57%
0.0
0N
Y
841
09
0Pa
rts
of h
ydra
ulic
tu
rbin
es &
wat
er w
hee
ls
incl
udi
ng
regu
lato
rs0
.00
11.4
849
.36
11.4
80
14.3
5%34
.02%
0.0
05%
N
841
182
Gas
tu
rbin
es n
es o
f a
pow
er e
xcee
din
g 50
00
KW
0.0
028
.48
15.4
515
.45
055
.17%
-6.6
0%
0.0
05%
N
841
199
Part
s of
gas
tu
rbin
es n
es0
.00
102.
69
57.7
557
.75
011
.24%
19.2
2%0
.00
5%N
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
141
841
280
Engi
nes
an
d m
otor
s n
es0
.00
91.
5428
.34
28.3
40
120
.30
%46
.67%
0.0
07%
N
841
330
Fuel
, lu
bric
atin
g or
coo
ling
med
ium
pu
mps
for
int
com
b pi
ston
en
gin
es0
.00
19.4
112
4.6
419
.41
017
.37%
18.6
3%0
.00
NY
841
370
Cen
trif
uga
l pu
mps
nes
0.2
735
.52
201.
5435
.26
56.6
5%28
.21%
17.6
2%0
.28
13%
Y
841
391
Part
s of
pu
mps
for
liqu
id w
het
her
or
not
fi
tted
wit
h a
mea
surg
dev
ice
0.0
122
.83
290
.89
22.8
2-1
1.8
5%6
.65%
21.4
4%
0.0
113
%Y
841
430
Com
pres
sors
of
a ki
nd
use
d in
ref
rige
rati
ng
equ
ipm
ent
0.3
313
2.24
32.8
932
.57
15.3
0%
9.5
2%8
.53%
2.11
5%N
841
451
Fan
s: t
able
,roo
f et
c w
a s
elf-
con
t el
ec m
tr
of a
n o
utp
ut
nt
excd
g 12
5W0
.00
14.9
547
.24
14.9
5_*
33.2
0%
6.1
7%0
.00
NY
841
459
Fan
s n
es0
.03
10.1
222
.97
10.0
94.
21%
18.3
9%
33.8
8%
0.2
923
%Y
841
480
Air
or
gas
com
pres
sors
, hoo
ds0
.24
79.2
032
7.18
78.9
65.
17%
5.77
%36
.31%
0.1
515
%Y
841
490
Part
s of
vac
uu
m p
um
ps, c
ompr
esso
rs,
fan
s, b
low
ers,
hoo
ds0
.08
29.6
024
8.5
529
.53
20.1
1%12
.51%
21.0
2%0
.06
8%
Y
841
510
Air
con
diti
onin
g m
ach
ines
win
dow
or
wal
l ty
pes,
sel
f-co
nta
ined
0.0
019
.72
38.0
619
.72
0-9
.68
%2.
12%
0.0
021
%Y
841
590
Part
s of
air
con
diti
onin
g m
ach
ines
0.0
057
.37
71.8
857
.37
-76
.24%
12.4
8%
17.0
2%0
.00
NY
841
86
9Re
frig
erat
ing
or f
reez
ing
equ
ipm
ent
nes
0.0
627
.51
35.7
427
.44
68
.18
%14
.39
%12
.33%
0.3
815
%Y
841
89
9Pa
rts
of r
efri
gera
tin
g or
fre
ezin
g eq
uip
men
t, n
es0
.00
32.7
549
.51
32.7
50
11.8
4%26
.21%
0.0
010
%Y
841
98
9M
ach
iner
y,pl
ant/
labo
rato
ry e
quip
f t
reat
of
mat
by
chan
ge o
f te
mp
nes
0.5
810
1.28
145.
95
100
.70
45.1
7%10
.98
%11
.85%
0.8
4N
Y
841
99
0Pa
rts
of m
ach
iner
y, p
lan
t an
d eq
uip
men
t of
hea
din
g N
o 8
4.19
0.1
550
.61
84.
5050
.46
42.4
6%
25.1
7%11
.30
%0
.36
13%
Y
842
119
Cen
trif
uge
s n
es0
.15
16.2
073
.56
16.0
536
.02%
10.3
8%
20.7
2%0
.43
5%N
842
121
Filt
erin
g or
pu
rify
ing
mac
hin
ery
and
appa
ratu
s fo
r w
ater
0.8
637
.40
85.
2336
.54
68
.18
%23
.62%
33.9
7%2.
1425
%Y
842
129
Filt
erin
g or
pu
rify
ing
mac
hin
ery
and
appa
ratu
s fo
r liq
uid
s n
es0
.11
10.2
528
.11
10.1
40
.66
%4.
93%
35.4
4%
0.7
925
%Y
842
139
Filt
erin
g or
pu
rify
ing
mac
hin
ery
and
appa
ratu
s fo
r ga
ses
nes
0.1
326
.36
104.
5826
.23
5.9
4%2.
93%
42.7
4%
0.2
616
%Y
842
230
Mac
h f
fil/c
los/
seal
/etc
.btl
e/ca
n/b
ox/ b
ag/
ctn
r n
es,m
ach
f a
erat
g be
v1.
256
3.44
96
.50
62.
1949
.71%
17.3
3%23
.18
%2.
745%
N
842
240
Pack
ing
or w
rapp
ing
mac
hin
ery
nes
0.0
523
.45
31.2
423
.40
-13.
84%
7.8
0%
10.2
1%0
.35
5%N
842
290
Pts
of d
ish
was
hin
g,cl
ean
g or
dry
g co
nta
iner
,pac
kg o
r w
rapp
g m
ach
0.2
618
.84
43.4
418
.57
5.54
%29
.66
%19
.28
%1.
295%
N
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
142
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
IND
IAN
EX
POR
TS T
O P
AK
ISTA
N
HS
cod
ePr
od
uct
lab
elIn
dia
20
14
Exp
ort
s to
Pa
k
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d
Exp
ort
Ind
ia 2
014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Ind
ia-P
ak
CA
GR
Pak
Imp
ort
C
AG
R
Ind
ia
Exp
ort
C
AG
R
Bila
tera
l R
CA
Ap
plie
d
Tari
ffSe
nsi
tive
lis
t
842
959
Self
-pro
pelle
d ex
cava
tin
g m
ach
iner
y n
es0
.34
31.0
010
9.8
030
.66
_*0
.17%
30.6
5%0
.65
5%N
843
049
Bori
ng
or s
inki
ng
mac
hin
ery
nes
, not
sel
f-pr
opel
led
0.0
08
8.6
837
.80
37.8
00
19.8
8%
28.4
9%
0.0
05%
N
843
139
Part
s of
lift
ing,
han
dlin
g, lo
adin
g or
u
nlo
adin
g m
ach
iner
y n
es0
.00
13.3
76
2.0
013
.37
83.
78%
33.1
1%20
.73%
0.0
05%
N
843
143
Part
s of
bor
ing
or s
inki
ng
mac
hin
ery,
w
het
her
or
not
sel
f-pr
opel
led
0.2
46
0.8
917
0.4
06
0.6
511
6.8
9%
8.7
2%41
.94
%0
.30
5%N
843
149
Part
s of
cra
nes
,wor
k-tr
uck
s,sh
ovel
s,an
d ot
her
con
stru
ctio
n m
ach
iner
y0
.06
40.8
933
1.9
940
.82
_*12
.33%
36.3
8%
0.0
45%
N
844
511
Text
ile c
ardi
ng
mac
hin
es0
.34
38.5
410
.51
10.1
622
.37%
-2.7
4%25
.85%
6.8
75%
N
844
519
Text
ile p
repa
rin
g m
ach
ines
nes
0.1
325
.11
14.3
514
.22
14.9
6%
-3.2
6%
18.4
0%
1.9
65%
N
844
520
Text
ile s
pin
nin
g m
ach
ines
7.10
58.2
310
9.8
851
.13
102.
92%
-8.2
6%
42.2
1%13
.68
5%N
844
839
Pts
& a
cces
s of
mac
h o
f h
eadi
ng
No
84.
45
or o
f th
eir
aux
mac
h n
es1.
3119
.67
18.1
516
.84
44.5
2%5.
86
%15
.07%
15.3
15%
N
845
140
Was
hin
g,bl
each
g or
dye
g m
ach
ines
(o/
t m
ach
ines
of
hea
dg N
o 8
4.50
)0
.31
13.5
312
.57
12.2
643
8.3
2%-1
1.0
2%26
.18
%5.
265%
N
845
180
Mac
h f
wri
ng/
dres
s/fi
nis
hg/
coat
g/im
preg
te
x ya
rns
etc(
o/t
hdg
No8
450
)0
.01
45.0
610
.21
10.2
0-1
7.30
%-1
.30
%21
.17%
0.1
75%
N
847
130
Port
able
dig
ital
com
pute
rs <
10kg
0.0
019
7.6
530
.97
30.9
7_*
17.6
7%10
.74
%0
.00
0%
N
847
141
Non
-por
tabl
e di
gita
l edp
mac
hin
es w
pr
oces
sor
& i/
o0
.11
14.0
328
.88
13.9
217
.50
%19
.36
%20
.27%
0.8
00
%N
847
150
Dig
ital
pro
cess
ing
un
its
not
sol
d as
co
mpl
ete
syst
ems
0.0
037
.08
57.4
137
.08
024
.67%
35.7
0%
0.0
00
%N
847
160
Com
pute
r in
put/
outp
uts
, wit
h/w
ith
out
stor
age
0.0
010
.47
23.1
010
.47
_*-1
4.8
5%5.
00
%0
.03
0%
N
847
290
Offi
ce m
ach
ines
, nes
0.8
215
.61
45.5
814
.79
37.6
7%12
.14%
23.1
2%3.
795%
N
847
330
Part
s&ac
cess
orie
s of
au
tom
atic
dat
a pr
oces
sg m
ach
ines
&u
nit
s th
ereo
f0
.01
13.4
511
5.8
813
.44
_*-1
2.34
%-7
.04
%0
.01
0%
N
847
420
Cru
shin
g/gr
indg
mac
hin
es fo
r ea
rth
/ sto
ne/
ores
o o
th m
iner
als
subs
etc
0.0
118
.56
64.
1018
.55
-51%
8.4
8%
35.2
0%
0.0
45%
N
847
490
Pts
of s
ortg
/scr
een
g/m
ixg/
cru
shg/
grin
din
g/w
ash
ing/
aggl
omer
atg
mac
h e
tc0
.00
13.9
914
7.17
13.9
925
.99
%22
.80
%34
.11%
0.0
06
%N
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
143
847
710
Inje
ctio
n-m
ould
ing
mac
hin
es fo
r w
orki
ng
rubb
er o
r pl
asti
cs n
es0
.00
27.2
050
.28
27.2
0-1
9.7
6%
5.6
7%4.
71%
0.0
25%
N
847
730
Blow
mou
ldin
g m
ach
ines
for
wor
kin
g ru
bber
or
plas
tics
nes
0.0
010
.57
39.6
210
.57
01.
26%
18.5
4%
0.0
05%
N
847
780
Mac
h fo
r w
orkg
ru
bber
/pla
stic
s/fo
r th
e m
fr
of p
rods
form
th
ese
mat
nes
0.0
110
.07
40.6
610
.06
-31.
76%
9.2
2%19
.75%
0.0
55%
N
847
98
2M
ach
f m
ixin
g/kn
eadi
ng/
cru
shin
g/gr
indg
et
c n
es h
avg
indi
vid
fun
ctio
n0
.69
91.
62
28.8
428
.14
85.
23%
14.6
8%
27.4
3%5.
09
5%N
847
98
9M
ach
ines
& m
ech
anic
al a
pplia
nce
s n
es
hav
ing
indi
vidu
al f
un
ctio
ns
1.75
54.1
934
4.14
52.4
527
.41%
4.59
%18
.56
%1.
07
5%N
847
99
0Pa
rts
of m
ach
ines
&m
ech
anic
al a
pplia
nce
s n
es h
avg
indi
vidu
al f
un
ctio
ns
0.8
516
.83
138
.25
15.9
834
.72%
6.0
7%4.
02%
1.30
5%N
848
079
Mou
lds
for
rubb
er o
r pl
asti
cs, n
es0
.71
16.4
939
.41
15.7
79
2.8
6%
19.7
4%14
.03%
3.8
25%
N
848
110
Val
ves,
pre
ssu
re r
edu
cin
g0
.08
28.3
644
.52
28.2
840
6.6
2%35
.05%
16.0
3%0
.37
15%
Y
848
120
Val
ves
for
oleo
hydr
aulic
or
pneu
mat
ic
tran
smis
sion
s0
.00
16.0
822
.53
16.0
80
31.3
7%40
.00
%0
.00
6%
N
848
180
Taps
, coc
ks, v
alve
s an
d si
mila
r ap
plia
nce
s,
nes
0.1
76
8.8
871
7.6
76
8.7
1-2
.15%
8.8
0%
18.3
0%
0.0
5N
Y
848
190
Part
s of
tap
s, c
ocks
, val
ves
or s
imila
r ap
plia
nce
s0
.23
10.6
033
7.37
10.3
611
.71%
9.6
3%24
.86
%0
.15
6%
N
848
210
Bear
ings
, bal
l0
.14
38.4
558
.38
38.3
125
.80
%7.
14%
6.3
8%
0.5
05%
N
848
310
Tran
smis
sion
sh
afts
an
d cr
anks
, in
clu
din
g ca
m s
haf
ts a
nd
cran
k sh
afts
0.0
050
.17
255.
69
50.1
70
29.5
8%
22.2
4%
0.0
0N
Y
848
330
Bear
g h
ousi
ngs
,not
inco
rpor
atg
ball/
rolle
r be
arin
gs;p
lain
sh
aft
bear
gs0
.00
19.8
732
.86
19.8
7_*
16.7
7%21
.28
%0
.03
NY
848
340
Gea
rs&
gear
ing,
ball
scre
ws,
gear
bo
xes,
spee
d ch
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rs/t
orqu
e co
nver
ters
0.0
618
.01
154.
96
17.9
6_*
8.5
3%25
.53%
0.0
8N
Y
850
140
AC
mot
ors,
sin
gle-
phas
e, n
es0
.00
13.1
78
4.6
613
.17
-29
.29
%17
.19
%5.
98
%0
.00
NN
850
152
AC
mot
ors,
mu
lti-p
has
e,of
an
ou
tpu
t ex
ceed
g 75
0 W
bu
t n
ot e
xcee
dg 7
5 K
W0
.05
20.1
822
.84
20.1
4-2
.11%
22.6
7%29
.83%
0.4
313
%Y
850
164
AC
gen
erat
ors,
of
an o
utp
ut
exce
edin
g 75
0 K
VA0
.99
74.9
956
.35
55.3
6_*
34.5
3%40
.88
%3.
7313
%Y
850
211
Gen
erat
g se
ts,d
iese
l/sem
i-die
sel
engi
nes
,of
an o
utp
ut
not
exc
ed 7
5 K
VA0
.00
42.0
534
.44
34.4
40
13.0
0%
21.3
3%0
.00
15%
Y
850
212
Gen
erat
g se
ts,d
iese
l/sem
i-die
sel e
xcee
dg
75 K
VA b
ut
not
exc
ed 3
75 K
VA0
.00
16.8
028
.01
16.8
00
13.4
1%21
.25%
0.0
015
%Y
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
144
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
IND
IAN
EX
POR
TS T
O P
AK
ISTA
N
HS
cod
ePr
od
uct
lab
elIn
dia
20
14
Exp
ort
s to
Pa
k
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d
Exp
ort
Ind
ia 2
014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
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ia-P
ak
CA
GR
Pak
Imp
ort
C
AG
R
Ind
ia
Exp
ort
C
AG
R
Bila
tera
l R
CA
Ap
plie
d
Tari
ffSe
nsi
tive
lis
t
850
213
Gen
erat
g se
ts,d
iese
l/sem
i-die
sel
engi
nes
,of
an o
utp
ut
exce
edg
375
KVA
0.0
013
7.75
58.9
758
.96
03.
01%
19.0
8%
0.0
18
%Y
850
220
Gen
erat
ing
sets
wit
h s
park
-ign
itio
n
inte
rnal
com
bust
ion
pis
ton
en
gin
es0
.03
56.4
148
.31
48.2
8-7
3.78
%10
.70
%26
.17%
0.1
46
%N
850
239
Elec
tric
gen
erat
ing
sets
0.6
513
4.29
17.0
516
.40
111.
32%
31.4
8%
33.5
0%
8.1
05%
N
850
300
Part
s of
ele
ctri
c m
otor
s,ge
ner
ator
s,ge
ner
atg
sets
& r
otar
y co
nver
ters
0.7
747
.21
248
.24
46.4
46
5.57
%17
.41%
23.2
4%
0.6
610
%Y
850
434
Tran
sfor
mer
s el
ectr
ic h
avg
a po
wer
han
dlg
capa
city
exc
eedg
50
0 K
VA,n
es0
.00
38.4
918
.31
18.3
10
49.9
4%12
.89
%0
.00
NY
850
440
Stat
ic c
onve
rter
s, n
es0
.22
84.
3445
3.31
84.
126
0.3
9%
18.9
1%27
.05%
0.1
06
%N
850
490
Part
s of
ele
ctri
cal t
ran
sfor
mer
s, s
tati
c co
nver
ters
an
d in
duct
ors
0.0
118
.26
171.
3918
.25
-34.
55%
22.0
5%16
.37%
0.0
1N
N
850
720
Lead
-aci
d el
ectr
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ccu
mu
lato
rs n
es0
.00
61.
3078
.27
61.
300
36.1
1%38
.64
%0
.00
NY
851
220
Ligh
tin
g or
vis
ual
sig
nal
ling
equ
ipm
ent
nes
0.0
013
.38
57.8
613
.38
013
.12%
19.5
7%0
.00
NY
851
762
Mac
hin
es fo
r th
e re
cept
ion
, con
vers
ion
an
d tr
ansm
issi
on o
r re
gen
erat
io0
.00
346
.31
135.
90
135.
90
011
.24%
30.7
4%
0.0
05%
N
851
769
App
arat
us
for
the
tran
smis
sion
or
rece
ptio
n o
f vo
ice,
imag
es o
r ot
her
0.0
016
0.6
810
5.58
105.
580
-16
.78
%-1
.05%
0.0
03%
N
851
770
Part
s of
tel
eph
one
sets
, tel
eph
ones
for
cellu
lar
net
wor
ks o
r fo
r ot
her
0.0
116
0.3
350
1.9
416
0.3
3_*
-10
.11%
19.8
3%0
.00
NN
852
352
Car
ds in
corp
orat
ing
one
or m
ore
elec
tron
ic
inte
grat
ed c
ircu
its
smar
t c
0.0
123
.15
102.
00
23.1
4_*
-7.1
7%#
DIV
/0!
0.0
25%
N
852
380
Gra
mop
hon
e re
cord
s an
d ot
her
med
ia fo
r th
e re
cord
ing
of s
oun
d or
of
ot0
.00
97.
07
98
.70
97.
07
03.
17%
-28
.56
%0
.00
5%N
852
99
0Pa
rts
suit
able
f u
se s
olel
y/pr
inc
w t
he
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of h
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ngs
85.
25 t
o 8
5.28
0.0
051
.64
133.
65
51.6
40
0.0
2%15
.76
%0
.00
6%
N
853
620
Au
tom
atic
cir
cuit
bre
aker
s fo
r a
volt
age
not
exc
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ng
1,0
00
vol
ts0
.00
20.3
410
8.2
620
.34
09
.86
%27
.56
%0
.00
10%
Y
853
69
0El
ectr
ical
app
for
swit
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s,n
ot e
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1,0
00
V,n
es0
.01
12.7
720
1.54
12.7
620
0%
3.16
%18
.04
%0
.01
12%
Y
853
710
Boar
ds,p
anel
s,in
clu
dg n
um
eric
al c
ontr
ol
pan
els,
for
a vo
ltag
e <
=10
00
V0
.17
52.9
532
1.6
952
.78
47.9
7%36
.28
%48
.67%
0.1
1N
Y
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
145
853
720
Boar
ds,p
anel
s,in
clu
dg n
um
eric
al c
ontr
ol
pan
els,
for
a vo
ltag
e >
1,0
00
V0
.44
21.3
910
4.19
20.9
542
.80
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.17%
39.5
5%0
.90
25%
Y
853
89
0Pa
rts
for
use
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h t
he
appa
ratu
s of
hea
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no.
85.
35,8
5.36
or
85.
37,n
es0
.01
24.4
833
7.14
24.4
66
.97%
7.33
%34
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%0
.01
10%
Y
854
140
Phot
osen
siti
ve s
emic
ondu
ct
devi
ce,p
hot
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taic
cel
ls&
ligh
t em
it d
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s0
.00
205.
5617
4.72
174.
72*
-19
.49
%77
.99
%7.
20%
0.0
05%
N
854
370
Elec
tric
al m
ach
ines
an
d ap
para
tus,
hav
ing
indi
vidu
al f
un
ctio
ns,
n.e
.s.
0.0
324
.65
30.1
724
.62
76.2
7%22
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%4.
19%
0.2
15%
N
854
442
Elec
tric
con
duct
ors
for
a vo
ltag
e <
= 1
.00
0
V, in
sula
ted,
fitt
ed w
ith
c0
.00
23.5
936
.69
23.5
90
28.4
3%17
.84
%0
.00
NY
854
449
Elec
tric
con
duct
ors,
for
a vo
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e n
ot
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edin
g 8
0 V
, nes
0.0
154
.04
39.7
239
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_*22
.70
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NY
854
460
Elec
tric
con
duct
ors,
for
a vo
ltag
e ex
ceed
ing
1,0
00
V, n
es0
.04
11.1
925
9.8
911
.15
-40
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40.7
2%0
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NN
86
021
0Ra
il lo
com
otiv
es, d
iese
l-ele
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c0
.00
95.
83
24.4
924
.49
0_*
13.4
7%0
.00
5%N
870
120
Road
tra
ctor
s fo
r se
mi-t
raile
rs (
tru
ck
trac
tors
)0
.00
51.5
928
.50
28.5
00
30.7
3%15
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0.0
0N
Y
870
190
Wh
eele
d tr
acto
rs n
es0
.00
23.0
99
03.
5223
.09
00
.40
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.31%
0.0
0N
Y
870
210
Die
sel p
ower
ed b
use
s w
ith
a s
eati
ng
capa
city
of
> n
ine
pers
ons
0.0
039
.36
259
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39.3
60
7.49
%15
.72%
0.0
0N
Y
870
321
Au
tom
obile
s w
rec
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catg
pis
ton
en
gin
e di
spla
cg n
ot m
ore
than
10
00
cc
0.0
028
3.22
1,19
9.7
728
3.22
04.
74%
12.5
9%
0.0
0N
Y
870
322
Au
tom
obile
s w
rec
ipro
catg
pis
ton
en
gin
e di
spla
cg >
10
00
cc
to 1
500
cc
0.0
121
2.44
3,23
6.8
021
2.43
-5.1
7%12
.34%
31.1
0%
0.0
0N
Y
870
323
Au
tom
obile
s w
rec
ipro
catg
pis
ton
en
gin
e di
spla
cg >
150
0 c
c to
30
00
cc
0.0
016
2.0
08
35.5
216
2.0
00
13.1
1%25
.12%
0.0
0N
Y
870
421
Die
sel p
ower
ed t
ruck
s w
ith
a G
VW
not
ex
ceed
ing
five
ton
nes
0.0
06
3.43
271.
146
3.43
03.
56%
13.7
3%0
.00
NY
870
422
Die
sel p
ower
d tr
uck
s w
a G
VW
exc
five
to
nn
es b
ut
not
exc
tw
enty
ton
nes
0.0
036
.43
218
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36.4
30
0.2
1%24
.91%
0.0
0N
Y
870
423
Die
sel p
ower
ed t
ruck
s w
ith
a G
VW
ex
ceed
ing
twen
ty t
onn
es0
.00
10.1
69
4.8
410
.16
08
.65%
45.1
7%0
.00
NY
870
590
Spec
ial p
urp
ose
mot
or v
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les
nes
0.0
028
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20.5
120
.51
017
.37%
24.6
5%0
.00
NY
870
829
Part
s an
d ac
cess
orie
s of
bod
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nes
for
mot
or v
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les
0.0
049
.87
61.
3649
.87
025
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29.9
2%0
.00
NY
870
840
Tan
smis
sion
s fo
r m
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veh
icle
s0
.00
10.7
533
1.22
10.7
50
74.9
6%
48.7
7%0
.00
NY
870
88
0Sh
ock
abso
rber
s fo
r m
otor
veh
icle
s0
.00
11.5
69
7.48
11.5
60
34.0
5%29
.35%
0.0
0N
Y
PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
146
HIG
H P
OTE
NTI
AL
IND
IAN
EX
POR
TS T
O P
AK
ISTA
N
HS
cod
ePr
od
uct
lab
elIn
dia
20
14
Exp
ort
s to
Pa
k
Pak
2014
W
orl
d
Imp
ort
s
Ind
ia 2
014
W
orl
d
Exp
ort
Ind
ia 2
014
Tr
ade
Pote
nti
al
Ind
ia-P
ak
CA
GR
Pak
Imp
ort
C
AG
R
Ind
ia
Exp
ort
C
AG
R
Bila
tera
l R
CA
Ap
plie
d
Tari
ffSe
nsi
tive
lis
t
870
89
9M
otor
veh
icle
par
ts n
es0
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45.4
32,
69
6.0
645
.35
30.2
0%
-8.2
7%19
.36
%0
.01
NY
871
120
Mot
orcy
cles
wit
h r
ecip
roca
tg p
isto
n e
ngi
ne
disp
lacg
> 5
0 c
c to
250
cc
0.0
073
.83
1,75
3.42
73.8
30
5.40
%23
.23%
0.0
0N
Y
871
410
Part
s an
d ac
cess
orie
s of
mot
orcy
cles
, in
cl.
mop
eds,
n.e
.s.
0.0
056
.02
116
.19
56.0
2_*
19.6
1%_*
0.0
00
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88
024
0A
ircr
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nes
of
an u
nla
den
wei
ght
exce
edin
g 15
,00
0 k
g0
.00
106
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3,43
1.0
310
6.1
60
-11.
59%
121.
95%
0.0
05%
N
88
033
0A
ircr
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part
s n
es0
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38.7
51,
250
.79
38.5
59
2.9
3%-5
.66
%41
.25%
0.0
35%
N
88
039
0Pa
rts
of b
allo
ons,
dir
igib
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an
d sp
acec
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n
es0
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58.7
716
5.29
58.7
721
2.49
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0.9
4%28
.13%
0.0
05%
N
90
158
0Su
rvey
g,hy
drog
raph
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phic
,met
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logi
c/ge
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sica
l in
st n
es0
.00
42.8
919
.14
19.1
40
30.5
8%
15.9
6%
0.0
05%
N
90
1819
Elec
tro-
diag
nos
tic
appa
ratu
s, n
es0
.01
20.7
98
0.3
520
.78
-27.
28%
2.0
8%
19.2
8%
0.0
15%
N
90
1831
Syri
nge
s, w
ith
or
wit
hou
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eedl
es0
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15.0
136
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14.3
549
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6.0
3%17
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81
NN
90
1839
Nee
dles
, cat
het
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can
nu
lae
and
the
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n
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01
53.9
922
0.9
752
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28.7
0%
18.2
9%
23.9
1%0
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6%
N
90
189
0In
stru
men
ts a
nd
appl
ian
ces
use
d in
m
edic
al o
r ve
teri
nar
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ien
ces,
nes
0.5
79
8.9
620
8.8
89
8.3
938
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%15
.17%
16.5
9%
0.5
85%
N
90
2139
Art
ifici
al p
arts
of
the
body
(ex
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rtifi
cial
te
eth
an
d de
nta
l fitt
in0
.16
20.4
320
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20.2
810
6.4
8%
30.9
2%43
.77%
1.57
5%N
90
268
0In
stru
men
ts&
appa
ratu
s fo
r m
easu
rg o
ch
eck
vari
able
s of
liq
o ga
ses,
nes
0.0
025
.59
19.2
819
.28
017
.83%
26.5
5%0
.03
5%N
90
278
0In
stru
men
ts a
nd
appa
ratu
s fo
r ph
ysic
al o
r ch
emic
al a
nal
ysis
, nes
0.2
523
.81
24.0
023
.57
62%
5.8
0%
26.0
5%2.
200
%N
90
289
0Pa
rts&
acce
ssor
ies
for
gas,
liqu
id/e
lect
rici
ty
supp
ly/p
rodu
ctio
n m
eter
s0
.00
11.2
741
.32
11.2
70
3.38
%40
.14
%0
.00
NY
90
318
0M
easu
rin
g or
ch
ecki
ng
inst
rum
ents
, ap
plia
nce
s an
d m
ach
ines
, nes
0.1
617
.47
75.8
017
.32
32.9
8%
7.8
6%
34.0
3%0
.44
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PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
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PAKISTAN-INDIA TRADE NORMALIZATION: A WORD OF CAUTION
148
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