pce statistics for food and energy clint mccully chief, research group national income and wealth...

PCE Statistics for Food and Energy

Clint McCullyChief, Research Group

National Income and Wealth Division

APDU Annual ConferenceSeptember 25, 2008

www.bea.gov 2

PCE Estimates

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) includes purchases of goods and services for personal use

Business and government purchases not included Purchases by self-employed included

in business purchases Purchases financed through

government social benefits included in PCE (e.g. food stamps)

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PCE Food and Energy

Food Food and alcoholic beverages purchased for off-premise

consumption Purchased meals and beverages Food furnished to employees and food produced and

consumed on farms

Energy Gasoline and oil Fuel oil and coal Gas Electricity

www.bea.gov 4

Food & Energy Sources and Methods

Food Benchmark: Commodity flow (off-premise)

Food services sales (purchased meals)

Other periods: Retail control method Energy

Gasoline & Oil: Q x P Quantities: FHWA & EIA for total

VIUS, NAFA, BEA stocks data for allocation

Price: ∑ (Q by grade * P by grade)/ ∑ Q from EIA Fuel Oil & Coal: Commodity flow & retail control Electricity & gas: Residential revenue from EIA

Deflation: CPI component indexes

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Food and Energy Shares of PCE

1981 highest share = 9.2 %

2008 (7 mths) = 6.8 %

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PCE Price Indexes

www.bea.gov 7

Food Price Changes

www.bea.gov 8

Food Prices and Consumption

www.bea.gov 9

PCE Energy Price Indexes

www.bea.gov 10

Gasoline Price & Quanity

Arab oil embargo

2nd oil crisis

July ’08 = highest relative price

www.bea.gov 11

Trucks and Gasoline Prices

Quantity index of new truck sales

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Airline Prices and Consumption

9/11 & aftermath