pecc general meeting concurrent session on services · 2019. 5. 29. · 29 september 2011 jane...
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PECC General MeetingConcurrent Session on Services
Washington, DC 29 September 2011
Jane Drake-Brockman
Services driving growth
Source: World Bank (2009), The Service Revolution in South Asia, Figure 1.3‐4, p. 41
Services in Employment
Source: World Development Indicators, from Atje and Mugiyani (2011)
(averaged over 1990-2000 and 2001-2009)
Services growth and poverty alleviation
Slide 4
Productivity gains from services
Source; Tcha (2011); OECD. The Sector Classification in this table is followed by the ISIC code.
•Source: OECD STAN Database, Criscuolo(2010)
Labor Productivity’s Contribution to GDP Growth
by the Service Sectors (OECD, 2000~2006)
Labor ProductivityLabor Productivity’’s Contribution to GDP s Contribution to GDP Growth Growth
by the Service Sectors (OECD, 2000~2006)by the Service Sectors (OECD, 2000~2006)
Services in Production and Trade
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Source: Francois and Manchin (2011)
The share of services in exports, 2007
Impact of barriers to mode 3
Source: Francois and Hoekman (2010), based on Table 4.5.
OECD FDI regulation indices (proxy for mode 3) and trade volumes in services
Services supply chains
•The application of enabling services such as telecommunications and IT has driven segmentation of goods supply chains into production units which can be dispersed geographically, and yet be connected•The same thing is happening in services; for knowledge-intensive services industries where value can be “captured” and “stored” so that production can be separated from consumption and scaled up, the growth of cross-border digital trade is enabling development of services supply chains•Any activity or cluster of activities (business functions) in the value chain can become a core competence, or be outsourced – most can also can be offshored, leading to new competitive opportunities for specialization•The objective is to move up the value–added ladder and to engage in the highest value-adding “tasks”, namely design, R&D, innovation and standardization –or logistics, marketing and brand. •The model is known as the “Smiley Face”, the curve used by Acer Computer’s CEO Stan Shih to convince Chinese Taipei to permit Acer laptops to be manufactured in China. Mr Shih said: “Hollowing out of tangible things is not critical. Hollowing out of intangible things is really critical.”
“Smiley Face”: the shift to services
Higher Added-value and Lower
Replacement
High Value-AddedProduct and
Service Centre
Marketing
BrandInnovation
DesignR&D
R&D/Innovation Centre
Value Creation
Standardisation
InnovationR&D
Design
AddedValue
Manufacture
Assembly
Logistics
Marketing
Brand
StandardisationValue-added process
Global Logistics Center
Logistics
AssemblyManufacture
(Source: Business Week International online extra, May 16, 2005, Stan Shih on Taiwan and China)
Composition of services trade
Source: US BEA from Fancois 2011
Composition of US service exports
Uruguay Round Commitments, Doha Offers and Actual Policies
ZAF
KENNGA
MUSPHL
CHN
IDNMYS
THA
ALB
CZE
TUR
LTU
HUN
POLBGR
BHR
OMN
DOM
MEX
CHL
BRAPE R
BOL
TTOGTMHND
ARG
URY
PAN
CRI
COLNIC PRY
JOR
MAR
TUNEGY
NZL
USA
DNK
AUSGRC
FIN
JPN
PRT
AUT IRLSWEDEU
NLDCANGBR
KOR BEL
ESP
ITAFRA
LKA
IND
PAK
ZAF
KEN
NGAMUS
PHL
CHN
IDN MYSTHA
ALB
CZE
TUR
LTU
HUNPOL
BGR
BHR
OMN
DOM
MEX
CHL
BRA
PE R
BOL
TTOGTMHND
ARG
URY
PAN
CRI
COLNIC PRY
JOR
MAR
TUNEGY
NZL
USADNK
AUSGRC
FINJPN
PRT
AUTIRL
SWEDEUNLD
CAN
GBR
KORBEL
ESP
ITA FRA
LKAIND
PAK
ZAFKENNGA
MUS
PHL
CHN
IDNMYS
THA
ALB CZETUR
LTU
HUN
POLBGR
BHROMN
DOM
MEXCHL
BRAPE RBOL
TTO
GTMHND ARG
URY
PAN
CRI
COLNIC
PRY
JOR
MAR
TUN
EGY
NZL
USADNK
AUSGRC
FIN
JPN
PRTAUT
IRLSWEDEU
NLD
CAN
GBR
KORBEL
ESP
ITAFRA
LKA
IND
PAK
020
4060
8010
0Se
rvice
s tra
de re
stric
tiven
ess
inde
x
0 10000 20000 30000 40000GDP per capita,PPP
Restr ictive ness of GATS co mmitment Fitted values
Restr ictive ness of DOHA Offers Fitted values
Restr ictive ness of actual policy Fitted values
STRI for 61 countries, excluding Qatar and 31 countries that did not submit offersSource: Borchert,Gootiiz, Mattoo 2010
UR commitments, Doha offers, UR commitments, Doha offers, and actual policies by regionand actual policies by region
020
4060
80S
ervi
ces
trade
rest
rictiv
enes
s in
dex
SAR GCC LAC AFR MENA EAP OECD ECA
Binding gap, offer gap and applied policy for 93 countries
Actual Policy
Offer gap (Doha Offer-Actual policy)
Offer Improvement (Uruguay Round commitment-Doha Offer)
How to make progress?
This tripartite work has mobilised thinking around two new proposed action agendas:
(1) negotiation of a cross-sectoral “Services Reference Paper”, modelled interalia on the WTO Telecommunications Reference Paper, setting out global principles for regulatory coherence in services.
(2) recommencement of stand-alone services negotiations in the WTO. Given that less than half the WTO members have made services offers in the DDA, new negotiations would need to be on a critical mass plurilateral basis.
How can APEC contribute?
(1) bring regulators together with business to consider principles for regulatory coherence in services, that could also generate interest and potential application beyond the region
(2) irrespective of any developments in the DDA,– incubate the idea and – provide leadership in building a “critical mass”
of political will for stand-alone services negotiations
Proposed outcomes from APEC 2011
• APEC 2011 needs visible concrete outcomes if it is to sustain regional business interest
• Its time for a “Services Initiative”, if not a “Services Trade Initiative”
• The APEC Leaders Statement should bring new depth and energy to APEC work on regulatory cooperation, including specifically to develop principles for regulatory coherence in services
• The APEC Trade Ministers Statement should look beyond the DDA and take the lead in calling for new negotiating processes, and flexibility with respect to negotiating modalities, including specifically in services
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