performance and sensitivity of the hec-hms...
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Calibration, performance Calibration, performance and sensitivity analysis of and sensitivity analysis of
the HECthe HEC--HMS modelHMS modelJuraj M. CunderlikJuraj M. Cunderlik
Slobodan P. Slobodan P. SimonovicSimonovic
Assessment of Water Resources Risk and Vulnerability to Changing
Climatic Conditions
22
OutlineOutline
IntroductionIntroductionModel structureModel structureModel calibrationModel calibrationModel performanceModel performanceModel sensitivityModel sensitivityDiscussionDiscussion
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IntroductionIntroduction
Both event and contBoth event and cont’’ models calibratedmodels calibratedVerification and sensitivity analysisVerification and sensitivity analysisProject Report IVProject Report IVModel applicationsModel applications
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Event modelEvent modelstructurestructure
RAINFALL
PERVIOUS SURFACE IMPERVIOUS SURFACE
RIVER CHANNEL
LOSSES
BASEFLOW
RESERVOIR OPERATION
AQUIFER
BASIN OUTLET
Meteorologic component
Rainfall loss component
River routing componentBaseflow component
Reservoir component
DIRECT RUNOFF
Direct runoff component
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Continuous modelContinuous modelstructurestructure
PRECIPITATION
PERVIOUS SURFACE IMPERVIOUS SURFACE
RIVER CHANNEL
LOSSES
BASEFLOW
RESERVOIR OPERATION
AQUIFER
BASIN OUTLET
Meteorological component
Precipitation loss component
River routing componentBaseflow component
Reservoir component
DIRECT RUNOFF
Direct runoff component
SNOW ACCUMULATION AND MELT
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
Snow component
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Model calibrationModel calibration
-81.5 -81.4 -81.3 -81.2 -81.1 -81 -80.9 -80.8 -80.7
42.9
43
43.1
43.2
43.3
43.4
43.5
43.6
Stage AStage A
Stage BStage B
Stage CStage C
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Event model calibrationEvent model calibrationUTRCA data
Initial parametervalues
Manualcalibration
Softconstraints Optimization Hard
constraints
Initial parametervalues
End
Start
Performanceevaluation
HEC-HMS
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ContCont’’ model calibrationmodel calibration
+ snow model calibration+ snow model calibration+ semiannual parameterization+ semiannual parameterization
UTRCA data
Initial parametervalues
Manualcalibration
Softconstraints
Hardconstraints
End
Start
Performanceevaluation
HEC-HMS
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Model performanceModel performance
Flow comparison graphFlow comparison graphScatter graphScatter graphResidual graphResidual graphObjective function graphObjective function graphGoodnessGoodness--ofof--fit measuresfit measures
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Flow comparison graphFlow comparison graph
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Scatter graphScatter graph
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Residual graphResidual graph
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Objective function graphObjective function graph
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GoodnessGoodness--ofof--fit measuresfit measures
Percent error in peak (PEP)Percent error in peak (PEP)Percent error in volume (PEV)Percent error in volume (PEV)LagLag--0 cross0 cross--correlation coefficient (CORR)correlation coefficient (CORR)Relative BIAS (RBIAS)Relative BIAS (RBIAS)Relative RMSE (RRMSE)Relative RMSE (RRMSE)Relative peakRelative peak--weighted RMSE (RPWRMSE)weighted RMSE (RPWRMSE)
Model Model performanceperformance
Thames River @ Byron
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Event model performance Event model performance
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
3-Jul-00 5-Jul-00 7-Jul-00 9-Jul-00 11-Jul-00 13-Jul-00 15-Jul-00 17-Jul-00
Q [m
3 s-1]
Modeled
Observed CalibrationCalibration
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Event model performanceEvent model performance
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
29-Jul-00 31-Jul-00 2-Aug-00 4-Aug-00 6-Aug-00 8-Aug-00 10-Aug-00
Q [m
3 s-1]
Modeled
Observed VerificationVerification
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Event model performanceEvent model performanceByron@Thames PEPF [%] PEV [%] CORR [-] RBIAS [%] RRMSE [%] RPWRMSE [%]
Calibration 3.211 1.405 0.992 -15.047 32.076 25.314 Verification 1 1.937 8.743 0.977 -17.101 26.166 23.994 Verification 2 2.686 26.919 0.967 -40.230 45.421 40.740
Well fitted peaksWell fitted peaksQuicker recessionsQuicker recessionsUnderestimated volumesUnderestimated volumesReservoir operationReservoir operation
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ContCont’’ model performancemodel performance
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
11-Oct-83 19-Jan-84 28-Apr-84 6-Aug-84 14-Nov-84 22-Feb-85 2-Jun-85 10-Sep-85 19-Dec-85
Q [m
3 s-1]
Modeled
Observed CalibrationCalibration
2020
ContCont’’ model performancemodel performance
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
8-Oct-95 16-Jan-96 25-Apr-96 3-Aug-96 11-Nov-96 19-Feb-97 30-May-97 7-Sep-97 16-Dec-97
Q [m
3s-1
]
Modeled
Observed VerificationVerification
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ContCont’’ model performancemodel performance
Byron@Thames PEPF [%] PEV [%] CORR [-] RBIAS [%] RRMSE [%] RPWRMSE [%]Calibration 10.667 8.827 0.946 -6.443 44.826 40.707Verification 13.096 7.607 0.939 -7.615 46.488 42.245
Snow accumulation and melt adequately Snow accumulation and melt adequately reproduced reproduced Good simulation of low flow periods Good simulation of low flow periods No systematic bias in the seasonal modelNo systematic bias in the seasonal modelPerformance improved with increasing basin Performance improved with increasing basin area and spatial detailarea and spatial detailUnderestimated streamflow volumesUnderestimated streamflow volumes
2222
Model sensitivityModel sensitivity
Local sensitivity analysisLocal sensitivity analysisAbsolute sensitivity coefficientAbsolute sensitivity coefficientFactor perturbation methodFactor perturbation methodGoodnessGoodness--ofof--fit measures used as fit measures used as sensitivity functionssensitivity functions
Model Model sensitivitysensitivity
Middle Thames River @ Thamesford
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-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
03-Jul-00 05-Jul-00 07-Jul-00 09-Jul-00 11-Jul-00 13-Jul-00 15-Jul-00 17-Jul-00
Qdi
f [m
3 s-1]
Li
Lr
TcSt
Bi
Rc
Td
Event model sensitivityEvent model sensitivity
-30 % parameter decrease
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Event model sensitivityEvent model sensitivity
Flood magnitude Flood magnitude →→ ClarkClark’’s storage s storage coefficient, time of concentration and the coefficient, time of concentration and the loss parametersloss parametersPeak volume Peak volume →→ loss parameters and the loss parameters and the ClarkClark’’s storage coefficients storage coefficient
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20PARAMETER CHANGE [%]
PEPF
[%]
Tc St Bs Br Cs Ss If
Us Ts Sp Gs Gp Gc
ContCont’’ model model sensitivitysensitivity
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ContCont’’ model sensitivitymodel sensitivity
Flood magnitude Flood magnitude →→ ClarkClark’’s storage s storage coefficient and the parameters describing coefficient and the parameters describing soil physical properties (infiltration rate and soil physical properties (infiltration rate and soil layer storage) soil layer storage) Peak volume & low flows Peak volume & low flows →→ SMA SMA groundwater layer parametersgroundwater layer parametersOverall goodnessOverall goodness--ofof--fit fit →→ SMA SMA groundwater layer parameters and groundwater layer parameters and baseflowbaseflow parametersparameters
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DiscussionDiscussion
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