performance of load and net load forecasting 15-minute, 30-minute ‘look ahead’
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Feb. 24, 2014
Loads in SCED v2
Performance of Load and Net Load Forecasting
15-minute, 30-minute ‘look ahead’
ERCOT
2 Loads in SCED v2Feb. 24, 2014
Summary
• Charts show comparisons of Load and Net Load forecasted values to corresponding SCED actuals for calendar year 2013– Load and Net Load forecasts are inputs to indicative ‘look-
ahead’ price application– Charts compare forecasted values to first interval, and 15-minute
& 30-minute ‘look-ahead’• Errors are shown in terms of MW as well as % of actual demand
(or actual net load)
Note:• Results show that improvements to forecast values will be
needed in order to move forward on a Real-Time multi-interval optimization framework– Current Short-Term Load forecast application methodology (5
minute granularity) was developed in the Zonal market – There is currently no Short-Term Wind forecast (5 minute
granularity)
3 Loads in SCED v2Feb. 24, 2014
Terminology
• MW Forecast Error in GTBD = Forecast Demand – Actual Demand
• % Forecast Error in GTBD = MW Error in Forecast Demand / Actual Demand
• Net Actual Load = Actual Demand – Total Telemetered Wind MW output
• Forecast Net Load = Forecast Demand – Forecast Wind MW output
• MW Forecast Error in Net Load = Forecast Net Load – Net Actual Load
• % Forecast Error in Net Load = MW Error in Net Load / Net Actual Load
• Actual demand is the GTBD used by SCED
4 Loads in SCED v2Feb. 24, 2014
Summary
GTBD Error Mean (MW) Standard Deviation (MW)
Mean (%) Standard Deviation (%)
First Interval 0.01 MW 2.58 MW 0.000035 % 0.00751 %
15 minutes -3.22 MW 251.85 MW -0.0031 % 0.6842 %
30 minutes -2.53 MW 369.07 MW -0.0037 % 1.00126 %
Net Load Error
Mean (MW) Standard Deviation (MW)
Mean (%) Standard Deviation (%)
First Interval 0.01 MW 2.58 MW 0.000044 % 0.00894 %
15 minutes -3.22 MW 284 MW -0.00478 % 0.8855 %
30 minutes -2.59 MW 456.8 MW -0.01206 % 1.4363 %
5 Loads in SCED v2Feb. 24, 2014
Forecasted Demand Error (MW) : First Interval
Mean = 0.01 MWStandard Deviation = 2.58 MW
6 Loads in SCED v2Feb. 24, 2014
Forecasted Demand Error (MW) : 15 minute “look ahead”
Mean = -3.22 MWStandard Deviation = 251.85 MW
7 Loads in SCED v2Feb. 24, 2014
Forecasted Demand Error (MW) : 30 minute “look ahead”
Mean = -2.53 MWStandard Deviation = 369.07 MW
8 Loads in SCED v2Feb. 24, 2014
Forecasted Demand Error (%) : First Interval
Mean = 0.000035 %Standard Deviation = 0.00751 %
9 Loads in SCED v2Feb. 24, 2014
Forecasted Demand Error (%) : 15 minute “look ahead”
Mean = -0.0031 %Standard Deviation = 0.6842 %
10 Loads in SCED v2Feb. 24, 2014
Forecasted Demand Error (%) : 30 minute “look ahead”
Mean = -0.0037 %Standard Deviation = 1.00126 %
11 Loads in SCED v2Feb. 24, 2014
Forecasted Demand Error (MW) : First Interval
Mean = 0.01 MWStandard Deviation = 2.58 MW
12 Loads in SCED v2Feb. 24, 2014
Forecasted Demand Error (MW) : 15 minute “look ahead”
Mean = -3.22 MWStandard Deviation = 251.85 MW
13 Loads in SCED v2Feb. 24, 2014
Forecasted Demand Error (MW) : 30 minute “look ahead”
Mean = -2.53 MWStandard Deviation = 369.07 MW
14 Loads in SCED v2Feb. 24, 2014
Forecasted Demand Error (%) : First Interval
Mean = 0.000035 %Standard Deviation = 0.00751 %
15 Loads in SCED v2Feb. 24, 2014
Forecasted Demand Error (%) : 15 minute “look ahead”
Mean = -0.0031 %Standard Deviation = 0.6842 %
16 Loads in SCED v2Feb. 24, 2014
Forecasted Demand Error (%) : 30 minute “look ahead”
Mean = -0.0037 %Standard Deviation = 1.00126 %
Net Load Forecast Error
Feb. 24, 2014 Loads in SCED v2
18 Loads in SCED v2Feb. 24, 2014
Forecasted Net Load Error (MW) : First Interval
Mean = 0.01 MWStandard Deviation = 2.58 MW
19 Loads in SCED v2Feb. 24, 2014
Forecasted Net Load Error (MW) : 15 minute “look ahead”
Mean = -3.22 MWStandard Deviation = 284 MW
20 Loads in SCED v2Feb. 24, 2014
Forecasted Net Load Error (MW) : 30 minute “look ahead”
Mean = -2.59 MWStandard Deviation = 456.8 MW
21 Loads in SCED v2Feb. 24, 2014
Forecasted Net Load Error (%) : First Interval
Mean = 0.000044 %Standard Deviation = 0.00894 %
22 Loads in SCED v2Feb. 24, 2014
Forecasted Net Load Error (%) : 15 minute “look ahead”
Mean = -0.00478 %Standard Deviation = 0.8855 %
23 Loads in SCED v2Feb. 24, 2014
Forecasted Net Load Error (%) : 30 minute “look ahead”
Mean = -0.01206 %Standard Deviation = 1.4363 %
24 Loads in SCED v2Feb. 24, 2014
Forecasted Net Load Error (MW) : First Interval
Mean = 0.01 MWStandard Deviation = 2.58 MW
25 Loads in SCED v2Feb. 24, 2014
Forecasted Net Load Error (MW) : 15 minute “look ahead”
Mean = -3.22 MWStandard Deviation = 284 MW
26 Loads in SCED v2Feb. 24, 2014
Forecasted Net Load Error (MW) : 30 minute “look ahead”
Mean = -2.59 MWStandard Deviation = 456.8 MW
27 Loads in SCED v2Feb. 24, 2014
Forecasted Net Load Error (%) : First Interval
Mean = 0.000044 %Standard Deviation = 0.00894 %
28 Loads in SCED v2Feb. 24, 2014
Forecasted Net Load Error (%) : 15 minute “look ahead”
Mean = -0.00478 %Standard Deviation = 0.8855 %
29 Loads in SCED v2Feb. 24, 2014
Forecasted Net Load Error (%) : 30 minute “look ahead”
Mean = -0.01206 %Standard Deviation = 1.4363 %
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