peter newman - zero carbon transport

Zero Carbon Transport – building resilient cities

By Peter Newman

Professor of Sustainability Curtin University

Climate change and peak oil now make sustainability essential....

•  Global governance is going one way: 50% less ghg by 2050

•  Peak oil happened in 2008 in the economy…

From Island Press or CUSP.

History of innovation and crashes…. Each era keeps the best features, disposes worst and builds in the new

dimensions

Resilient City includes...

•  Renewable Energy City

•  Carbon Neutral City •  Distributed City •  Biophilic City •  Eco-Efficient City •  Place-Based City •  Sustainable Transport

City

All combine the digital, smart technologies with the new technologies of sustainability….

reducing footprint and making more liveable at the same time

Sustainable Transport City

The Zero Carbon Transport Future: 1  Reducing car use…at least 50% 2  Electric renewable transport in cities… 3  Renewable natural gas in regions and

freight…

1. Reducing car travel…at least 50%

The 25 cities in the USA, Canada, Australia and Europe (and Singapore) involved in this study of trends in urban

transport from 1995/6 to 2005/6.

Note: Not all cities are completed for every variable yet. Data are still being pursued. Where the averages are created for 1995/6 data and 2005/6 data in the following slides only cities are used where both years are available, so the trend is correct for that particular set of cities. In addition a set of 2006 data has been collected for Adelaide but there is no 1996 set of data, so a trend is not possible.

Adelaide

• The US cities have made significant reductions in their per capita private passenger transport energy use per person. • This is through a combination of stabilised car use growth and improving fuel efficiency of the vehicle fleet. • The bad news is they are still very far ahead of the rest of the world in this factor. • Canadian and European cities and Singapore have declined in per capita private passenger transport energy use per person due to declining or stabilising car VKT per person and improved vehicle efficiency. • Australian cities on the other hand continue to rise in energy use…car use growth outstrips any car fuel efficiency gains.

Sustainability generally up But Australian cities down.. energy increased by 16%, Brisbane 30%

• Urban activity density (pop + jobs) has clearly reversed its decades long decline in all cities.

Density is the sustainability multiplier

Perth

Sustainability generally up - Major departure from Post-WW2 trends

There is a critical density of around 35 persons per ha, below which car use tends to increase rapidly.

Urban sprawl is not very smart or sustainable...

Australian cities like all cities are coming back in.

City Density 1996 people/ha Density 2006 people/ha

Sydney 18.9 19.5

Melbourne 13.7 15.6

Brisbane 9.6 9.7

Adelaide 11.8 11.9

Perth 10.9 11.3

Urban scatter.... is expensive and unhealthy....

PB-CUSP paper on costs of urban development shows in Australian cities each new block on the fringe cf redevelopment: 1. Is subsidised by $85,000 in infrastructure. 2. Costs $250,000 extra in transport costs over 50 years. 3. Produces 4.4 tonnes/yr more in greenhouse gases, and health issues....

www.sustainability.curtin.edu.au

• In US cities, freeway provision per capita has stabilized. • It continues to rise substantially in Canadian and Australian cities

Sustainability trend mixed Australian cities bad - up 19%

Impact of Road Building on Delay – America’s 20 Biggest Cities – ZERO!

DELAY

Freeway Miles

ONE LANE -

people per hr:

Freeway 2,500

Busway 5000

LRT 10-20,000

Train 50,000

• Parking in the CBD is a particularly important factor in the livability of the city centre and the use of public transport to access the centre. • Parking provision in central cities has significantly dropped relative to jobs over the 10 years.

Sustainability generally up

• The length of reserved transit route in cities is generally on the rise. • Only in Australian cities is it languishing, with Perth the only Australian city where significant new reserved routes have been built.

Sustainability generally up Australian cities down 7%. .

Opening of new Southern Railway 90% approval ratings and already paid off

55,000 per day cf 14,000 on buses

Global success story as it goes out to the edge of the city. $30

mill per km.

Curtin-UWA LRT

The ‘Knowledge Arc’ Rail

Chatswood built new station as part of a ‘Value Transfer PPP’...

Varsity Lakes Station, Brisbane

TODs like East Perth can be beautiful..

Subiaco TOD – value of land increased 5 times cf to non-rail areas.

Reserved rights-of-way are critical for transit’s speed advantage over cars. Transit, walking and cycling can compete with cars when given traffic priority. Light Rail Transit

systems can also green the city, as in Freiburg.

Dublin

Freiburg

Vienna

Dublin Helsinki Helsinki

• The results are very mixed with Australian cities improving very marginally and a large improvement in the European cities available.

Sustainability trend mixed

• Public transport seat kilometres per person in cities is universally on the rise, which generally means more rail services are being offered.

Sustainability generally up

The greater attractiveness and significance of rail systems in cities, is an important factor in explaining differences in public transport use in cities, globally.

• Public transport use in terms of boardings is also going up, albeit only by relatively small increments, except in Europe.

• Australian cities have less transit use than Canadian cities, but more service and infrastructure…greater TOD in Canada.

Sustainability generally up

Annual Total Public Transport Boardings Per Capita

Ann

ual B

oard

ings

Strong rail cities have systematically more public transport passenger boardings than weak rail and no rail cities.

Rail systems focus the city into high density nodes of concentrated public transport use - Transit-Oriented Development. Car/Bus systems follow and support scattered development.

Joyce Station, Vancouver, 2004

Joyce Station, Vancouver, 2004

Hotel, Offices, Farmers Market, Cafes, Restaurants

Generous, people-oriented public environments

A range of housing densities that are people-oriented

Vauban Redevelopment, Freiburg, Germany

• Car vehicle kms per person, is generally showing an upwards pattern, but there is a slowing in the upwards trend (US cities rose by only 2%). • In all other groups of cities per capita car use is still rising…in Australian cities the growth was strongest of all cities (+14%)...Perth up 1300 km per capita in 10 years.

Sustainability generally down Australian cities the worst

• The rate of transport deaths per head of population has declined markedly in nearly all cities.

Sustainability generally up

US cities...

•  Declining in car use – 4.3% in past year, plateau over the past 5 years.

•  Increasing transit use – 6.5% in past year.

•  ‘Suburban slums’ and the crash....

Australian public transport is taking off... •  Melbourne 34% growth 2006-8 •  Perth 14% growth in 2008

Infrastructure Australia response

Nation Building package – 55% urban rail….historic!

The Gold Coast – built for light rail…

Rebuilding Auto City

as a Smart Sustainable

City with real centres

Transit Oriented Developments, TODs...land development partnerships.

Australian Cities – all want TODs, but...

•  Melbourne – started, stopped and started again....

•  Sydney – done them for years •  Perth – started... •  Brisbane – started a little •  Adelaide – about to start NEED A NEW TOD ZONING….

2. Electric renewable transport…

A million Electric Vehicles to be produced in 3 years…

Toyota Prius PHEV Toyota FT-EV Chevy Volt Mitsubishi iMiEV Smart ed

Mini E Ford Focus EV Nissan Leaf Subaru Stella Mercedes Bluezero EV

Detroit Electric Th!nk City Tesla Roadster Coda Automotive Renault Fluence EV

Dodge Circuit Chery S18 BYD E6 Vauxhall Trixx Fisker Karma

RENEWABLES STORAGE PROBLEM SOLVED!

Al Gore’s moon shot:

Smart Grid + Plug-in EVs + Renewables

Electric vehicles help make a renewable city…

Plug-in vehicles

Transit-oriented development with electrified public transit

Building efficiency and zero-waste

Onsite renewable energy and water production

Smart grids

EV Recharging Infrastructure

NB: Standardized EV infrastructure is essential.

Coulomb Technologies / Charge Point

Better Place

Elektromotive Toyota Industries

Public transport vehicles can be PEVs too

Alstom battery-powered light rail in Bordeaux

Tindo solar-electric bus in Adelaide

Enabling Renewables: Solar EV Charging

Regional renewables…

Linking the solar centres of the globe to cities by renewable

electricity… and HVDC

Desertec dream can link renewables from Australia to China…at least across Australia – gas and power

3. Renewable natural gas

Regions? Renewable natural gas…

•  CO2 + 2H20 CH4 + 2O2

•  Needs solar energy to make it happen and catalysts; like photosynthesis.

•  Enables us to keep building infrastructure for gas. No longer the ‘transition fuel’….

•  Who needs Hydrogen or any other storage?

CH

Regional and freight transport…

•  Freight - CNG for all large vehicles and regional travel….powered eventually by renewably-derived natural gas.

•  Agriculture – Biofuels from ‘grow-your-own’.

•  Long distance - telepresence, fast trains, airships and planes (renewably derived LNG?)

Natural Gas in Vehicles

•  Easy option for heavy vehicles; CNG buses have shown how to do it. Australian technology used to convert Mumbai and Chenai buses.

•  Australia has 77% of its population on natural gas distribution system.

Can we make renewable natural gas a major development focus for regional Australia? development focus for regional Australia?

What will be needed for this transition…?

•  National plan for decarbonising cities… •  National electricity grid – linking

renewables to cities and across states; •  National gas grid – linking gas production

to regional transport routes and major industries.

•  Demonstrations

Infrastructure Australia

•  Board of 12 from across Australia, with Sir Rod Eddington Chair.

•  IA and the Infrastructure Co-ordinator (Michael Deegan, ex NSW DGT) based in Sydney with the Major Cities Unit.

•  Part of DITRDLG.... Infrastructure Australia Council Sir Rod Eddington, Mr Anthony Kannis Hon Mark Birrell, Mr Terry Moran (Mike Mrdak), Mr Jim Hallion, Prof Peter Newman Mr Phil Hennessy, Ms Heather Ridout Dr Ken Henry (Jim Murphy), Mr Ross Rolfe Dr Kerry Schott, Mr Gary Weaven

National Strategic Priorities

• Expand Australia’s productive capacity • Increase Australia’s productivity • Diversify Australia’s economic capabilities • Build on Australia’s global competitive

advantages • Develop our cities and regions • Reduce greenhouse emissions • Improve social equity, and quality of life, in

our cities and our regions

Infrastructure Australia 7 themes and how it can help sustainability

1.  A national broadband network – for smart infrastructure

2. A true national energy grid – for renewables

3.  Competitive international gateways – for exports, including our green products

4.  A national rail freight network – for reduced carbon freight carriage.

Infrastructure Australia 7 themes and how it can help sustainability

5.  Adaptable and secure water supplies - resilient to climate change

6. Transforming our cities – for a low carbon future

7.  Providing essential indigenous services – for sustainable communities.