phuong thailand - feb 16-17,2012

THE 5TH THAI-MALAYSIAN INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON SOUTHEAST ASIAN STUDIES

RE-MAKING HISTORICAL MEMORY IN SOUTHEAST ASIA

MAHIDOL UNIVERSITY FEBRUARY 16 – 17, 2012

AN ENCOUNTER WITH INVENTED MEMORY

IN MAKING OF ECONOMIC POLICY

THE CASE OF COFFEE TRADING IN CENTRAL HIGHLANDS OF VIETNAM

NGUYEN HOANG MY PHUONG - VIETNAM

WARM UP!

LET’S SUGGEST SOME CHARACTERISTICSABOUT OUR CURRENT SOCIETY

CHARACTERISTICS OF OUR CURRENT SOCIETY

#1 NETWORKS

CHARACTERISTICS OF OUR CURRENT SOCIETY

#2 LIQUIDS

CHARACTERISTICS OF OUR CURRENT SOCIETY

#3 RISKS

CHARACTERISTICS OF OUR CURRENT SOCIETY

#1 DECENTRED & FLAT#2 NOT KEEP ANY SHAPE FOR LONG#3 UNFORESEEN RISKS IN GLOBAL DIMENSION

LET’S IMAGINE COFFEE

WHY NEED TO FIND OUT THE SUSTAINABLE SOLUTION FOR VIETNAM COFFEE INDUSTRY?

AN IMPORTANT PART OF VIETNAM ECONOMYUSD 2.7 BILLIONS IN 2011 (3% OF THE TOTAL EXPORT

EARNINGS)~ 300,000 HOUSEHOLDS, > 600,000 WORKERS

COFFEE PRODUCERS & GOVERMENT

GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF COFFEE PRODUCTION

•CENTRAL HIGHLANDS

PROVINCES (ROBUSTA)

•SOUTHEAST PROVINCES

(ROBUSTA)

•NORTHERN PROVINCES

(ARABICA)

ROBUSTA PRODUCTION BETWEEN THE FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE OVER THE PERIOD OF 1981/86 AND 2005/10

SOURCE: ICO

OVERVIEW OF RESEARCH FINDINDSIN MY MA THESIS

CREDIT PROVISION & PRICE RISK MANAGEMENT

ECONOMY FROM THE HISTORICAL STANDPOINT IN DANG PHONG’S APPROACH

CENTRALLY-PLANNED ECONOMY MARKET-ORIENTED ECONOMY

ECONOMIC MINDSET

NEW INSOLVED INFORMATION

ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION IN VIETNAM1979 - 1986

ECONOMY FROM THE HISTORICAL STANDPOINT IN DANG PHONG’S APPROACH

• NO CHRONOLOGY• FINDING OUT FUNDAMENTAL CAUSES• MULTI-DISCIPLINES (ECONOMICS, HISTORY, ETC.)• VARIOUS SOURCES (INTERVIEWS, NEWSPAPERS,

GOVERMENTAL DOCUMENTS, ETC.)

RE-MAKING MEMORY OF COFFEE TRADING IN CENTRAL HIGHLANDS OF VIETNAM

INVENTED TRADITION NEW ARRIVAL CUSTOM

COFFEE TRADING

FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS

IN THE CONTEXT OF OUR CURRENT SOCIETYNETWORKS, LIQUIDS, RISKS

PHYSICAL COFFEE FLOWS VS FUTURES CONTRACT FLOWS

FARMER2 TONS/HA

EXPORTER6 CONTAINERS x 21 TONS

= 126 TONS

FUTUTES CONTRACT

1 LOT = 10 TONS

FUTUTES CONTRACT

1 LOT = 10 TONS

FUTUTES CONTRACT

1 LOT = 10 TONS

FUTUTES CONTRACT

1 LOT = 10 TONS

FARMER2 TONS/HA

FARMER2 TONS/HA

WHAT IS YOUR DECISION?

AN OWNER OF DAKLAK-BASED PRIVATE ENTERPRISE

‘SO MANY COMPANIES AND

PEOPLE IN DAKLAK LOST

HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS VND

BECAUSE OF USING FUTURES

CONTRACT IN LIFFE OR ICE. IT IS

BAD! I NEVER USE IT’

A VIETNAMESE CEO OF A 100 % FOREIGN COMPANY IN DAKLAK

‘LIFFE OR ICE IS THE BIGGEST

MARKETS ON THE WORLD. YOU

THEREFORE HAVE A WIDE

RANGE OF CHOICES ONCE

ENTERING INTO IT’

* LIFFE OR ICE: THE TWO MAIN FUTURES EXCHANGES OF TRADING COFFEE

WHAT IS THEDECISION?

FUTHER INVESTIGATION NEEDED…

Q&ATHANK YOU

NGUYEN HOANG MY PHUONGMENFUONG@GMAIL.COM