planning for drought: a risk management approach

Planning for Drought: A Risk Management Approach

Mark Svoboda, Climatologist

Monitoring Program Area Leader, National Drought Mitigation Center

University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USA

South Central U.S. Drought Impacts and Assessment Workshop, Austin, TX July 7, 2011

Drought: “a force for truth”Analysis of drought risk management is the starting point for a comprehensive institutional analysis

Stress from drought highlights:Strengths and weaknesses that are usually hidden

Political priorities and underlying cultural values revealed by difficult choices

Societies will manage climate change in the same way they will manage droughts (for better and worse)

Daniel Connell, Australian National University, 2010

Characteristics of Crisis Management

reactive, post-impactpoorly coordinateduntimelypoorly targetedineffectivedecreases self-reliance greater vulnerability

United States National Drought Policy

Collection of fragmented efforts- 88 drought-related federal programs- No national policy (WDCC,NDPC 1998)- States have been leaders (WGA, etc.)

Limited funding for monitoring/mitigation- fraction of response expenditures

Focus on crisis management- ad-hoc responses and relief payments- paradigm shift underway?

• Then came NIDIS (2006)• Much more to do……

Focusing Events: Windows of Opportunity for Drought Planning

NDMC, 2011

Drought Plan Components

Monitoring and early warningAssess, communicate, and trigger actionFoundation of a drought mitigation plan

Vulnerability assessment Who and what is at risk and why?

Mitigation and response actionsActions/programs that reduce risk and impacts and enhance recovery

Tools for Planning: NDMC and NIDIS• All droughts are “local”• Planning is a “living” process• Planning should start local• Planning at all scales• Now what?

“Drought Ready” Communities

http://www.drought.unl.edu/plan/DRC.htm

The Drought Ready Communities Project

2 years (June 2008-June 2010)

Funded by NOAA’s Climate Program Office, Sectoral Applications Research Program (SARP), and NIDIS

http://drought.unl.edu/plan/DRC.htm

The Pilot Communities Nebraska City, Nebraska, pop. ~ 7,000

□ Wells draw from aquifer under the Missouri River Decatur, Illinois, pop. ~ 82,500

□ Surface water Norman, Oklahoma ~ 100,000 +

□ Surface and ground water

1: Invite & Commit

2: Gather Information

3: Start Monitoring

4: Plan for Education & Awareness

5: Plan Responses to Reduce Impacts

NIDIS Engaging Preparedness Communities Working Group

Establishing a cooperative network of drought stakeholders

UNL Project approval number (IRB# 20101111010 EX)

EPC Goal:Assist entities in planning for and reducing the risks associated with drought

NIDIS Implementation Plan, 2007

Approach

Approach•Create▫ database of state drought plan information

Drought Plan Database

Basic information

Communication & coordination

Drought declaration & response

Diversity of water users

Impact & risk assessment

Indicators & triggers

Climate change & uncertainty

Take Home Messages

• Be in position to take advantage of focusing events (windows of opportunity) to push drought planning to the forefront as a consistent priority via policy

• No “one size fits all” option available to develop a plan

• Needs to have a regular update period defined ( living process)

• Many lessons to be shared and learned

Why Plan for Drought?

Please visit the NDMC website for more information: http://drought.unl.edu

Contact me at:Mark Svoboda402-472-8238msvoboda2@unl.edu

Thanks!