platts crude oil markets asia 2013 crude oil markets asia 2013 . ... slide 2 . russia - output slide...
Post on 25-May-2018
217 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Johannes Benigni
JBC Asia
September 2013
Oil Market Consulting & Training
The Rising Tide II: ESPO, Russia & CIS
Platts Crude Oil Markets Asia 2013
Disclaimer
DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTIES AND LIMITATIONS OF LIABILITIES
1 The Services and all components thereof are provided on an “as is” basis, without any representation or warranty,
express or implied, by or on behalf of JBC ASIA, its affiliates or their suppliers and Client’s use of the Services is at
Client’s own risk. In particular, without limitation, no representation or warranty is made or given regarding the
adequacy, timeliness or completeness of the Services or any component thereof, the merchantability or fitness for a
particular purpose of the Services, the information, analysis, advise, data, software or products contained therein or
the results obtained by their use.
2 Neither JBC ASIA nor any of its affiliates, subcontractors, licensees, partners, agents or employees shall be liable
to Client for any damages, loss or other liability whatsoever in connection with the provision of the Services unless
arising through the wilful misconduct of the respective person.
3 Notwithstanding anything to the contrary in this document, in no event whatsoever shall
(a) JBC ASIA or any of its affiliates, subcontractors, licensees, partners, agents or employees be liable
for any indirect, consequential or punitive damages of whatever nature, including, but not limited to, loss of profits,
lost time and good will and third party claims, even if they have been advised of the possibility of such damages,
whether in contract, tort (including negligence), strict liability or otherwise; and
(b) the maximum cumulative liability of JBC ASIA, its affiliates, subcontractors, licensees, partners,
agents or employees in connection with the Services and/or this Agreement, regardless of the form of action, exceed
the fees paid by Client to JBC ASIA under the applicable schedule for the Services in question in the month such
liability is alleged to have arisen.
4 No action of whatever nature arising from or pertaining to the Services may be brought by Client more than one (1)
month after the incident constituting the factual basis of such action has occurred for the first time.
Slide 2
Russia - Output
Slide 3
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Total Russian Liquids Output Annual Growth - right scale
Russian Supply Growth ['000 b/d; %]
Source: JBC Energy SuDeP, BP
Russia
Slide 4
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Domestic Crude Use Crude Exports
Russian Refinery Crude Intake vs Export Volumes ['000 b/d]
Russia - Seaborn
Slide 5
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Average 2009-2012
Urals Seaborne Loadings [million b/d]
Source: Energy Intelligence, Bloomberg, Various
Russia
Slide 6
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13
Med NWE Russia
Maintenance Adjusted to Actual Urals Intake* ['000 b/d]
Source: SuDeP, JBC Energy Calculations, Argus Media, Bloomberg, Various
*Theoretical additional Urals availability due to maintainance
Slide 7
Russia - Urals
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13
Urals NWE vs Urals Med Urals Med vs. Dated Brent
Urals NWE vs. Fwd Dated Brent
Urals Med & NWE vs. North Sea Benchmark [$/bbl]
Source: Platts
Slide 8
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
Other Verkhnechonsk Talakan Vankor
East Siberian Oil Output ['000 b/d]
Source: JBC Energy, Argus
H2 2013 values are JBC Energy forecasts.
Russia – East Siberia
Russia – Output Growth
Slide 9
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13
3 Major East Siberian Fields
East Siberian Total
Total Russian Crude and Condensate Production
Selected Russian Output Growth vs Jan 2009 ['000 b/d]
Source: Russian Ministry of Energy, Argus
Slide 10
Russian Crude Pipeline Projects
RUSSIA
CHINA
KAZAKHSTAN
Skovorodino
Kozmino
Daqing Refinery120,000 b/d
Pipeline Under Construction
Existing Pipeline
Legend:
Samotlor
Taishet
Novorossiysk
Primorsk
Ust-Luga
Source: JBC Energy
Unecha
Komsomolsk
BPS-2
BPS
Druzhba
ESPO
Yaroslavl
Purpe
Zapolyarnoe
The Skovorodino-Kozmino pipeline has a capacity of
600,000 b/d
Zapolyarnoe-Purpe to be completed in three phases by 2016
Taishet-Skovorodino line's capacity is increased to 1
million b/d
Vankor
Russia - Pipelines
Russia - Capacity
Slide 11
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Western pipelines (Druzhba, Belarus, Ukraine) Omsk-Pavlodar
CPC (Russia's share - 31%) Other routes
BPS-1 BPS-2
ESPO Crude Available for Exports
Implied Export Capacity Utilisation - right scale
Russian Crude Export Capacity versus Export Volumes [ mbpd; % ]
Source: JBC Energy SuDeP, Various
Slide 12
1.641.35
1.06
1.64
1.73
1.92
1.061.27 1.34
0.94 0.770.57
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
South East North West
Crude Exports out of Russia by Direction [million b/d]
Russia - Exports
Slide 13
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Rosneft TNK-BP Surgutneftegaz Independents Gazprom Neft
Projected East Siberian Oil Output by Company ['000 b/d]
Source: JBC Energy estimates, Argus
Russia – East Siberia
Slide 14
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2010-H1 2013 H2 2013 2014 2015-2017 2018-2037
Rosneft plannes pipeline exports to China ['000 b/d]
Source: Various
Russia - Rosneft
Slide 15
Russia - ESPO
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Exports Domestic Refinery Intake
ESPO Exports vs Domestic Intake ['000 b/d]
Source: JBC Energy estimates
Russia - ESPO
Slide 16
ESPO Pipeline
Source: JBC Energy
Skovorodino
Daqing Refinery
Taishet
Tomsk
Kozmino
Khabarovsk
Komsomolsk
Taishet-Skovorodino line's capacity increased from
600,000 b/d to 1 million b/d.
The 600,000 b/d Skovorodino-Kozmino pipeline is now completed.
Angarsk
CHINA
MONGOLIA
ESPO Pipeline
The 300,000 b/d Skovorodino-Daqing spur capacity is due to be increased by 100,000 b/d by 2015.
Transneft intends to connect the 70,000 b/d Khabarovsk (2014) and the 160,000 b/d
Komsomolsk (2015) refineries to the ESPO
system. Once this is done, around 200,000 b/d of ESPO volumes will be sent to the two Russian refineries in Russia's Far East.
Nakhodka??
Russia – Export Schedule
Slide 17
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13
Primorsk Loadings (Urals, Baltic) Novorossiysk Loadings (Urals, Black Sea)
Gdansk Loadings (Urals, Baltic) Ust-Luga Loadings (Urals, Baltics)
Yuzhny Loadings (Urals, Black Sea) Odessa Loadings (Urals, Black Sea)
Tuapse (Sib. Light, Black Sea) Kozmino Loadings (ESPO Blend, Pacific)
Novorossiysk Loadings (Sib. Light, Black Sea) Kozmino share - right scale
Y-o-Y Changes in Russian Seaborne Crude Export Schedules by Route ['000 b/d]
Source: Transneft, Thomson Reuters, Platts, ArgusMedia, Bloomberg
Slide 18
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13
xxx
Japan China US Singapore South Korea Phillipines Thailand Peru Other
ESPO Trades by Destination ['000 b/d]
Source: ArgusMedia
Russia - ESPO
Slide 19
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Russia Caspian
Turkmenistan
Kazakhstan
Azerbaijan
Upside Scenario
Downside Scenario
Caspian Total Liquids Output [million b/d]
Upside scenario: + 1.4 million b/d by 2020Kashagan Phase II as of 2018
Better performance ACGIncreased output from offshore Russia and
TurkmenistanNo output from Iran Caspian to be expected by 2020 even in the most optimistic scenario
Downside scenario: - 1.1 million b/d by 2020Kashagan Phase I delayed
High decline rates ACGTurkmenistan fields do not live up to
expectations
Caspian - Output
Slide 20
Pavlodar
Turkmenabat
Shymkent
Atasu
Alashankou
Omsk
Kenkiyak
Samara
Novorossiysk
Ceyhan
Makhachkala
Turkmenbashi
Atyrau
Supsa
Refining & Oil Infrastructure in the Caspian Region
RUSSIA
TURKMENISTAN
KAZAKHSTAN
UZBEKISTAN
BTC
CPC
Kazakhstan-China
Aktau
Source: Various IRAN
China
TURKEY
Legend:
Crude Pipeline
Major Crude Field
Ref inery
Proposed Crude Pipeline
Marine Transportation Route
Major Port
Baku
Caspian
Slide 21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Central Azeri West Azeri East Azeri Deepwater Gunlashli Chirag Other Crude NGLs
Azerbaijan Total Liquids Output by Source [million b/d]
Chirag Oil Project
Shah Deniz II
ACG fields are on decline since 2010 - much earlier than initially estimated by BP.
On top of technical issues with the platforms, the reservoirs' performances are lower then expected.
Huge investments are needed to keep up production.
Azerbaijan - Output
Slide 22
Azerbaijan - BTC
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2008 2009 2010
2011 2012 2013
BTC Blend vs. Dated Brent [$/bbl]
Source: Platts
Slide 23
Kazakhstan - Output
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Tengiz Aktobe Uzen Mangistau Kumkol
Emba North Buzachi Kazgermunai Karazhanbas Other Crude
Kashagan Karachanganak Other NGLs
Kazakhstan Total Liquids Output by Source [million b/d]
Kashagan Phase I
Kashagan production commenced in September, with initial reported
volumes of 40,000 b/d. We expect 2013 production from the field to
come in at 35,000 b/d on an annualised basis.
Kazakhstan
Slide 24
VVIIEENNNNAA
Ch
art
Kazakhstan - China Pipeline
Uzbekistan
Kazakhstan ChinaAtyrau
Kumkol
Atasu
Tengiz
Alashankou
Russia
Russia
Kenkiyak
Kashagan
Kurmangazy
Uzen
Karachaganak Aktobe
Oilfield
Kazakhstan China pipeline
Legend:
Refinery
Pavlodar Refinery
Pavlodar Refinery
Shymkent Refinery
Source: JBC Energy
Existing Part: Kenkiyak Atyrau (to be reversed: 2014) Capacity: 120,000 b/d
Kenkiyak Kumkol (Undergoing Expansion)Capacity: 205,000 b/dExpansion: 405,000 b/d (2013)
Kumkol AtasuCapacity: 405,000 b/d
Atasu Alashankou (Undergoing Expansion)Capacity: 205,000 b/dExpansion: 405,000 b/d (2014 - 2015)
Pavlodar
Turkmenabat
Shymkent
Atasu
Alashankou
Omsk
Kenkiyak
Samara
Novorossiysk
Ceyhan
Makhachkala
Turkmenbashi
Atyrau
Supsa
Kazakh Exports in H1 2013 ('000 b/d)
RUSSIA
TURKMENISTAN
KAZAKHSTAN
UZBEKISTAN
BTC
CPC
Kazakhstan-China
Aktau
Source: Argus, JBC Energy IRAN
China
TURKEY
Legend:
Crude Pipeline
Major Crude Field
Ref inery
Proposed Crude Pipeline
Marine Transportation Route
Major Port
Baku
Kazakhstan - Exports
Slide 25
To China ~ 240
Via Russia ~ 370
CPC ~ 650
By rail via Black
Sea ports~ 190
Slide 26
Kazakhstan - CPC
-5.00
-4.00
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2008 2009 2010
2011 2012 2013
CPC Blend vs. Dated Brent [$/bbl]
Source: Platts
Slide 27
CPC vs BTC
-8.00
-7.00
-6.00
-5.00
-4.00
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2012 2013
2011 2010
CPC Blend vs BTC Blend [$/bbl]
Asia - Requirements
Slide 28
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
17.5
20.0
22.5
25.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Asian Net Crude Imports
Russian Exports to the East
Global Middle Eastern Exports
(Asian Net Imports) - (Middle East Exports) - (Russian exports to East)_Right Scale
Asian Crude Requirements [million b/d]
The higher the black line, the more dependent Asia is on crudes that are
NOT located in the Middle East or
Russia.
2.9 3.2 3.23.7
1.51.9 1.9
2.30.6
1.2 1.2
1.4
1.3
1.3 1.1
1.0
11.6
12.1 12.3
12.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011 2013 2014 2017
Middle East Asia Americas Europe & FSU East Africa
16.0% 16.0% 16.2% 17.8%
8.6% 9.5% 9.8%11.1%
3.6%6.3% 6.1%
6.6%7.1%6.5% 5.7%
4.9%
64.7%61.6% 62.3%
59.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2011 2013 2014 2017
Asian Crude Imports By Region 2011-2017 [million b/d; %]
Slide 29
Source: JBC Energy
Asia - Imports
Slide 30
Major Interregional Crude Oil Flows - 2012/2013/2015/2017 ['000 b/d]
North America
Europe
FSU
AsiaMiddle East
Africa
Source: JBC Energy estimates
121 108 98
1803
1542
1358
846
495
345
2179
2048
1811
2803
2806
2785
2200
2146
2196
4587 4529 4469
421
454
434
18181969
2285
12120 12190
12419
3150 3585 3718
11381192
1323
South America
2013
2015
2017
Flows >500,000 b/d displayed
2012
1984
2318
1168
874
3017
474
2677
133
4681
12014
23561730
Asia – Oil Flows
www.jbcasia.com
info@jbcasia.com
Consulting – Research – Training
THANK YOU!
top related