political leaflets in the eastleigh 2013 by election

The number, form and genre of direct mail marketing and

door to door political leafleting in the February

2013 Eastleigh by-election.

Marcus Leaning University of Winchester

Eastleigh

• Located in Hampshire.

• Electorate of 78,313 (Boundary commission 2011).

• More densely populated than the rest of south east England.

• Historic transport industry (railways, airport, shipbuilding)

• Currently retail employs 33% of workforce, leisure also big.

Politics

• Constituency created in 1955.

• Held by Conservatives until 1994.

• David Chidgey won the in 1994 by-election following the death of Stephen Milligan.

• Chris Huhne held the seat in 2005.

• But was arrested and (eventually) pleaded guilty for ‘perverting the course of justice’ after getting his then wife to accept speeding points in 2003.

• Mike Thornton (Lib Dem) held the seat on the 28th Feb 2013.

Electoral Campaigning

• The Lib Dem victory was attributed to a ‘strong ground game’ – the mobilisation of lots of political activists to engage voters.

• This paper looks at one aspect of the campaign, the door to door leafleting.

• An important but (recently) less studied electoral campaigning technique.

The impact of the local activist on electoral campaign performance

• Norris (2002) sees three periods in campaigning: Pre-modern, modern and post modern.

• Premodern were activist based, during the modern period the Nuffield Studies reported the futility of local activism in campaigns as elections are won or lost on national issues (Cutts, 2006a).

• Postmodern electioneering – that occurring post 1993 (Norris, 2000) is about ‘strategic targeting’.

• This has resulted in a revitalisation of local activism (Cutts, 2006b) underpinned by central party support that bolster constituency parties (Fisher and Denver, 2008).

• This requires lots of activists (Pattie and Johnston, 2009) and can overcome limited spending (Fisher, 2011).

• Door to door leafleting is a good barometer of local activism.• However the leaflets are not homogeneous and actually offer

further insight into local activism.

Method

• Consideration of all deliveries to one address over the campaign period.

• This was from the day of Huhne’s guilty plea (4th Feb), though the official declaration of candidates and official start of campaign (13th Feb) to the election day (28th Feb).

• In total 61 printed party political electoral communications were delivered from 11 of the 14 standing parties.

• Look at:– Number and frequency;– Type;– Discursive strategies

Number of door to door delivery by party

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1

Liberal Democrat

UKIP

Labour

Conservative

Independent

English Democrats

National HealthAction

Christian

Peace

TUSC

Wessex Regionalist

PARTY No. of communications Votes

Liberal Democrat 24 13,342

UKIP 13 11,571

Labour 7 4,088

Conservative 6 10,559

Independent 3 768

English Democrats 3 70

National Health Action 2 392

Christian 1 163

Peace 1 128

TUSC 1 62

Wessex Regionalist 1 30

Beer, Baccy and Crumpet 0 235

Monster Raving Loony 0 136

Elvis Loves Pets 0 72

Number of leaflets delivered by day

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Types of communication

• Can be considered by:– Financial cost to produce and deliver.

– Labour to produce and deliver.

– Mode of communication.

• 4 basic types of communication:– Leaflet

– Impersonal letter

– Personal letter / communication

– Pseudo magazine/newspaper

Leaflets

• Long heritage.

• The ‘base’ door to door political communication.

• Relatively cheap to produce but intensive to deliver – by activist.

• Tone is often ‘proclamatory’.

Impersonal letters

• In many ways similar to a leaflet – tend to be more issue focussed.

• Again relatively cheap to produce but intensive to deliver – by activists.

• Tone is ‘discursive’ or ‘conversational’.

Personal letter / communication

• Addressed to an individual.

• Explicit targeting.

• Variable costs to produce.

• Expensive / intensive to deliver- either• by Royal Mail -

candidates get one free delivery.

• Or on occasion by hand by activist.

Pseudo magazine/newspaper

• Mimicry or remediation of local newspaper or magazine.

• Visually distinct.

• Occasionally politically ‘camouflaged’.

• Expensive to produce.

• Intensive to deliver.

Type of communication by partyParty Leaflets

Activistdelivered

ImpersonalletterActivistdelivered

Personal letterPaid delivery

Pseudonewspaper magazine

Total Activistdelivered

Total Paid for delivery

Total

Liberal Democrat 15 6 (1 hand delivered) 3 19 5 24

UKIP 9 2 2 11 2 13

Labour 4 3 4 3 7

Conservative 1 2 3 4 2 6

Independent 3 3 3

English Democrats 3 3 3

National Health Action

2 2 2

Christian 1 1 1

Peace 1 1 1

TUSC 1 1 1

Wessex Regionalist

1 1 1

Hmmm…

• Lib dems – lots of activism and lots spent.

• Ukip – lots of activism but not so much money.

• Labour – a bit of activism and a bit of money spent.

• Conservative – similar amount of activism but lots of money spent.

References

• Cutts, D. (2006a) Continuous campaigning and electoral outcomes: The Liberal Democrats in Bath. Political Geography, 25(1), 72-88.

• Cutts, D. (2006b) “Where We Work We Win”: A Case Study of Local Liberal Democrat Campaigning. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties, 16(3), 221-242.

• Fisher, J., Cutts, D. J. and Fieldhouse, E. (2011) ‘Constituency Campaigning in 2010’, in D. Wring , R. Mortimore and S. Atkinson (eds), Political Communication in Britain: The Leader Debates, the Campaign and the Media in the 2010 General Election. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 198–217.

• Fisher, J. and Denver, D. (2008) From Foot-Slogging to Call Centres and Direct Mail: A Framework for Analyzing the Development of District-Level Campaigning,European Journal of Political Research, 47 (6), 794–826.

• Norris, P. (2000) A Virtuous Circle: Political Communications in PostindustrialSocieties. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

• Pattie, C., & Johnston, R. (2009) Still Talking, But Is Anyone Listening?: The Changing Face of Constituency Campaigning in Britain, 1997—2005. Party Politics, 15(4), 411-434.