potential socioeconomic consequences of climate change

Rolph Payet, Seychelles

The European Union and its Overseas Entities: Strategies to counter Climate Change and Biodiversity Loss, Reunion Island, 07-11 July 2008

“The science tells us that GHG emissions are an externality; in other words, our emissions affect the lives of others. When people do not pay for the consequences of their actions we have market failure. This is the greatest market failure the world has seen. It is an externality that goes beyond those of ordinary congestion or pollution, although many of the same economic principles apply for its analysis.”

“This externality is different in 4 key ways that shape the whole policy story of a rational response. It is: global; long term; involves risks and uncertainties; and potentially involves major and irreversible change.”

Sir Nicolas Stern, October30th 2006

A Market Failure A global issue with local impacts The impacts are long-term, may have lag

effects The impacts can be exacerbate natural events The impacts can be damaging or beneficial Extreme events escalate the impacts in the

short-term There is still uncertainty, especially at local

levels

IPCC, 2007

Extreme Events (unpredicatable/cyclic)

El Nino

(Coral Bleaching)

Transboundary ImpactsTransboundary Impacts

(cumulative)

Sea-level rise ( Climate Change)

Resource Uses Resource Uses (predictable/crowding)

Development

Pressure

Local Impacts Local Impacts

(direct,sustained)

Poor Planning

Relatively low GDP (417 USD, 2002) and growth rate (>1%,

No extreme manifestations of poverty such as famine or homelessness

Subsistence agriculture & fisheries

Marine tourism which is based upon diving and snorkeling is worth more than 60million USD /yr

98% shallow coral lost as a result of 1998 elevated SST event.

Elevation AMSL = 1.5 mArea = 1.5 km2Population = 25,000

400m

132m

Source: SOPAC

IPCC 2007

A peninsula long thought to be part of Greenland's mainland turned out to be an island when a glacier retreated. (Jeff Shea for The New York Times)